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NASA NTRS1985

Strength Modeling Report

Strength modeling is a complex and multi-dimensional issue. There are numerous parameters to the problem of characterizing human strength, most notably: (1) position and orientation of body joints; (2) isometric versus dynamic strength; (3) effector force versus joint torque; (4) instantaneous versus steady force; (5) active force versus reactive force; (6) presence or absence of gravity; (7) body somatotype and composition; (8) body (segment) masses; (9) muscle group envolvement; (10) muscle size; (11) fatigue; and (12) practice (training) or familiarity. In surveying the available literature on strength measurement and modeling an attempt was made to examine as many of these parameters as possible. The conclusions reached at this point toward the feasibility of implementing computationally reasonable human strength models. The assessment of accuracy of any model against a specific individual, however, will probably not be possible on any realistic scale. Taken statistically, strength modeling may be an effective tool for general questions of task feasibility and strength requirements.

Badler, N. I.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Calibrated Noise Measurements with Induced Receiver Gain Fluctuations

The lack of well-developed techniques for modeling changing statistical moments in our observations has stymied the application of stochastic process theory in science and engineering. These limitations were encountered when modeling the performance of radiometer calibration architectures and algorithms in the presence of non stationary receiver fluctuations. Analyses of measured signals have traditionally been limited to a single measurement series. Whereas in a radiometer that samples a set of noise references, the data collection can be treated as an ensemble set of measurements of the receiver state. Noise Assisted Data Analysis is a growing field of study with significant potential for aiding the understanding and modeling of non stationary processes. Typically, NADA entails adding noise to a signal to produce an ensemble set on which statistical analysis is performed. Alternatively as in radiometric measurements, mixing a signal with calibrated noise provides, through the calibration process, the means to detect deviations from the stationary assumption and thereby a measurement tool to characterize the signal's non stationary properties. Data sets comprised of calibrated noise measurements have been limited to those collected with naturally occurring fluctuations in the radiometer receiver. To examine the application of NADA using calibrated noise, a Receiver Gain Modulation Circuit (RGMC) was designed and built to modulate the gain of a radiometer receiver using an external signal. In 2010, an RGMC was installed and operated at the National Institute of Standards and Techniques (NIST) using their Noise Figure Radiometer (NFRad) and national standard noise references. The data collected is the first known set of calibrated noise measurements from a receiver with an externally modulated gain. As an initial step, sinusoidal and step-function signals were used to modulate the receiver gain, to evaluate the circuit characteristics and to study the performance of a variety of calibration algorithms. The receiver noise temperature and time-bandwidth product of the NFRad are calculated from the data. Statistical analysis using temporal-dependent calibration algorithms reveals that the natural occurring fluctuations in the receiver are stationary over long intervals (100s of seconds); however the receiver exhibits local non stationarity over the interval over which one set of reference measurements are collected. A variety of calibration algorithms have been applied to the data to assess algorithms' performance with the gain fluctuation signals. This presentation will describe the RGMC, experiment design and a comparative analysis of calibration algorithms.

Racette, Paul↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical learning framework for safety and failure analysis of a DNN-based autonomous aircraft system

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and Machine Learning technology is increasingly used for safety-critical applications in the Aerospace domain. To ensure safe operations, the DNN and the system must undergo rigorous verification and validation, including advanced statistical analyses. Performance and safety of the DNN and system behavior must not only be analyzed for the nominal case, but under numerous off-nominal and failure cases. In this paper we will describe how our statistical learning framework SYSAI can efficiently perform such analyses using the tool’s unique combination of advanced learning modeling and statistical analysis techniques. SYSAI can effectively explore the high-dimensional state and failure space of the system under test; geometrical shape detection of safety regions and boundaries support explainability of the results to the designer. In this paper, we report experiments and results obtained with a vision-based DNN control system (ACT) that is capable of autonomously steering an aircraft down a runway.

Yuning He↗

DOE OSTI2025

Foundational Research for Fusion Systems Safety Assessment Overview

Presentation detailing work package to develop comprehensive fusion device safety models over the course of the next three years, including references to a blanket, divertor and magnet design, and statistical reliability models

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tula: Optimizing Time, Cost, and Generalization in Distributed Large-Batch Training

Distributed training increases the number of batches processed per iteration either by scaling-out (adding more nodes) or scaling-up (increasing the batch-size). However, the largest configuration does not necessarily yield the best performance. Horizontal scaling introduces additional communication overhead, while vertical scaling is constrained by computation cost and device memory limits. Thus, simply increasing the batch-size leads to diminishing returns: training time and cost decrease initially but eventually plateaus, creating a knee-point in the time/cost vs. batch-size pareto curve. The optimal batch-size therefore depends on the underlying model, data and available compute resources. Large batches also suffer from worse model quality due to the well-known “generalization gap”. In this paper, we present Tula, an online service that automatically optimizes time, cost, and convergence quality for large-batch training of convolutional models. It combines parallel-systems modeling with statistical performance prediction to identify the optimal batchsize. Tula predicts training time and cost within 7.5−14% error across multiple models, and achieves up to 20× overall speedup and improves test accuracy by ≈9% on average over standard large-batch training on various vision tasks, thus successfully mitigating the generalization gap and accelerating training at the same time.

Tyagi, Sahil [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000783144745)↗

NASA NTRS1995

Abrasion-ablation model for neutron production in heavy ion reactions

In heavy ion reactions, neutron production at forward angles is observed to occur with a Gaussian shape that is centered near the beam energy and extends to energies well above that of the beam. This paper presents an abrasion-ablation model for making quantitative predictions of the neutron spectrum. To describe neutrons produced from the abrasion step of the reaction where the projectile and target overlap, the authors use the Glauber model and include effects of final-state interactions. They then use the prefragment mass distribution from abrasion with a statistical evaporation model to estimate the neutron spectrum resulting from ablation. Measurements of neutron production from Ne and Nb beams are compared with calculations, and good agreement is found.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

The calculation of radial dose from heavy ions: predictions of biological action cross sections

The track structure model of heavy ion cross sections was developed by Katz and co-workers in the 1960s. In this model the action cross section is evaluated by mapping the dose-response of a detector to gamma rays (modeled from biological target theory) onto the radial dose distribution from delta rays about the path of the ion. This is taken to yield the radial distribution of probability for a "hit" (an interaction leading to an observable end-point). Radial integration of the probability yields the cross section. When different response from ions of different Z having the same stopping power is observed this model may be indicated. Since the 1960s there have been several developments in the computation of the radial dose distribution, in the measurement of these distributions, and in new radiobiological data against which to test the model. The earliest model, by Butts and Katz made use of simplified delta ray distribution functions, of simplified electron range-energy relations, and neglected angular distributions. Nevertheless it made possible the calculation of cross sections for the inactivation of enzymes and viruses, and allowed extension to tracks in nuclear emulsions and other detectors and to biological cells. It set the pattern for models of observable effects in the matter through which the ion passed. Here we outline subsequent calculations of radial dose which make use of improved knowledge of the electron emission spectrum, the electron range-energy relation, the angular distribution, and some considerations of molecular excitation, of particular interest both close to the path of the ion and the outer limits of electron penetration. These are applied to the modeling of action cross sections for the inactivation of several strains of E-coli and B. subtilis spores where extensive measurements in the "thin-down" region have been made with heavy ion beams. Such calculations serve to test the radial dose calculations at the outer limit of electron penetration. We lack data from which to test these calculations in regions close to the path of the ion aside from our earliest work on latent tracks in plastics, though it appears that the criterion then suggested for the threshold of track formation, of a minimal dose at a minimal distance (of about 20 angstroms, in plastics), remains valid.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Safe Removal of Frozen Air from the Annulus of an LH2 Storage Tank

Large Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) storage tanks are vital infrastructure for NASA. Eventually, air may leak into the evacuated and perlite filled annular region of these tanks. Although the vacuum level is monitored in this region, the extremely cold temperature causes all but the helium and neon constituents of air to freeze. A small, often unnoticeable pressure rise is the result. As the leak persists, the quantity of frozen air increases, as does the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Consequently, a notable increase in commodity boil-off is often the first indicator of an air leak. Severe damage can result from normal draining of the tank. The warming air will sublimate which will cause a pressure rise in the annulus. When the pressure increases above the triple point, the frozen air will begin to melt and migrate downward. Collection of liquid air on the carbon steel outer shell may chill it below its ductility range, resulting in fracture. In order to avoid a structural failure, as described above, a method for the safe removal of frozen air is needed. A thermal model of the storage tank has been created using SINDA/FLUINT modeling software. Experimental work is progressing in an attempt to characterize the thermal conductivity of a perlite/frozen nitrogen mixture. A statistical mechanics model is being developed in parallel for comparison to experimental work. The thermal model will be updated using the experimental/statistical mechanical data, and used to simulate potential removal scenarios. This paper will address methodologies and analysis techniques for evaluation of two proposed air removal methods.

cryogenic insulation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Statistical comparison of galaxy formation models - The bispectrum

To discriminate between galaxy-formation models that give similar two-point correlation functions, higher moments, specifically the three-point function in transform space or bispectrum, are looked to for an ensemble of numerical simulations. Different behaviors of this statistic are found that can be used to distinguish between classes of models. Up to the uncertainty in identifying the galaxy distribution with the mass distribution in the models, the results seem to prefer the isothermal or the cold-particle models. No model, however, agrees in all detail with the observational bispectrum of the Shane-Wirtanen galaxy catalog.

Fry, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Troposphere-stratosphere (surface-55 km) monthly winter general circulation statistics for the Northern Hemisphere Four year averages

In response to theoretically predicted anthropogenic depletion of stratospheric ozone, there has been, in recent years, an increased effort in stratospheric modeling. For comparison between models and observations, it is not sufficient to only compare the morphology of model-generated parameters with observed parameter values. Model-generated statistics should also be compared with observation. It is one of the objectives of the present investigation to discuss a data set which can be used for this purpose for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere and stratosphere. However, the investigation is mainly concerned with a presentation of some of the general circulation statistics derived with the aid of the data set. Attention is given to winter monthly general circulation statistics which were derived from four years of daily 1200 GMT NOAA/NMC Northern Hemisphere analyses.

Geller, M. A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intermittency and Dissipative Structures Arising from Relativistic Magnetized Turbulence

Abstract Kinetic simulations of relativistic turbulence have significantly advanced our understanding of turbulent particle acceleration. Recent progress has highlighted the need for an updated acceleration theory that can account for particle acceleration within the plasma’s coherent structures. Here, we investigate how intermittency modeling connects statistical fluctuations in turbulence to regions of high-energy dissipation. This connection is established by employing a generalized She–Leveque model to characterize the exponents ζ p for the structure functions S p ∝ l ζ p . The fitting of the scaling exponents provides us with a measure of the codimension of the dissipative structures, for which we subsequently determine the filling fraction. We perform our analysis for a range of magnetizations σ and relative fluctuation amplitudes δ B 0 / B 0 . We find that increasing values of σ and δ B 0 / B 0 allow the turbulent cascade to break sheetlike structures into smaller regions of dissipation that resemble chains of flux ropes. However, as their dissipation measure increases, the dissipative regions become less volume filling. With this work, we aim to inform future turbulent acceleration theories that incorporate particle energization from interactions with coherent structures within relativistic turbulence.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS2015

On Theoretical Broadband Shock-Associated Noise Near-Field Cross-Spectra

The cross-spectral acoustic analogy is used to predict auto-spectra and cross-spectra of broadband shock-associated noise in the near-field and far-field from a range of heated and unheated supersonic off-design jets. A single equivalent source model is proposed for the near-field, mid-field, and far-field terms, that contains flow-field statistics of the shock wave shear layer interactions. Flow-field statistics are modeled based upon experimental observation and computational fluid dynamics solutions. An axisymmetric assumption is used to reduce the model to a closed-form equation involving a double summation over the equivalent source at each shock wave shear layer interaction. Predictions are compared with a wide variety of measurements at numerous jet Mach numbers and temperature ratios from multiple facilities. Auto-spectral predictions of broadband shock-associated noise in the near-field and far-field capture trends observed in measurement and other prediction theories. Predictions of spatial coherence of broadband shock-associated noise accurately capture the peak coherent intensity, frequency, and spectral width.

Miller, Steven A. E.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Decision-directed adaptive recursive estimators - Divergence prevention.

A method is proposed for dealing with the divergence phenomenon problem encountered in applications of minimum-variance recursive estimators when the error covariance calculated by the estimator becomes inconsistent with the actual error covariance. The proposed method differs from previous ones in that the state model and statistics are accepted as given. The form of the optimal estimator is used, but a constant check is made on the consistency of the calculated and actual error covariances. The method is independent of the source of error, whether it be inaccuracies in the system model, incorrect values of the a priori and random process statistics, approximations required in the case of nonlinear systems, or computational roundoff. Several simulated examples, in which inconsistencies in the calculated and actual error covariances exist, show a significant improvement in the performance of the estimator when the given procedure is applied.

Nahi, N. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to a τ lepton pair in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for dark matter particles produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying into a pair of τ leptons is performed using data collected in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the CMS detector. The analysis is based on a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb −1 collected in 2017–2018. No significant excess over the expected standard model background is observed. This result is interpreted within the frameworks of the 2HDM+a and baryonic Z′ benchmark simplified models. The 2HDM+a model is a type-II two-Higgs-doublet model featuring a heavy pseudoscalar with an additional light pseudoscalar. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the product of the production cross section and the branching fraction for each of these two simplified models. Heavy pseudoscalar boson masses between 400 and 700 GeV are excluded for a light pseudoscalar mass of 100 GeV. For the baryonic Z′ model, a statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data set of 36 fb −1 collected in 2016. In this model, Z′ boson masses up to 1050 GeV are excluded for a dark matter particle mass of 1 GeV.

Dark Matter↗

NASA NTRS2019

Constraints on Mars Aphelion Cloud Belt phase function and ice crystal geometries

This study constrains the lower bound of the scattering phase function of Martian water ice clouds (WICs) throughthe implementation of a new observation aboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The Phase Function SkySurvey (PFSS) was a multiple pointing all-sky observation taken with the navigation cameras (Navcam) aboardMSL. The PFSS was executed 35 times during the Aphelion Cloud Belt (ACB) season of Mars Year 34 over a solarlongitude range of Ls = 61:4 156:5. Twenty observations occurred in the morning hours between 06:00 and 09:30 LTST, and 15 runs occurred in the evening hours between 14:30 and 18:00 LTST, with an operationallyrequired 2.5 h gap on either side of local noon due the sun being located near zenith. The resultant WIC phasefunction was derived over an observed scattering angle range of 18.3-152.61, normalized, and compared with 9modeled phase functions: seven ice crystal habits and two Martian WIC phase functions currently being implementedin models. Through statistical chi-squared probability tests, the five most probable ice crystal geometriesobserved in the ACB WICs were aggregates, hexagonal solid columns, hollow columns, plates, and bullet rosetteswith p-values greater than or equal to 0.60, 0.57,0.56,0.56, and 0.55, respectively. Droxtals and spheres had pvaluesof 0.35, and 0.2, making them less probable components of Martian WICs, but still statistically possibleones. Having a better understanding of the ice crystal habit and phase function of Martian water ice cloudsdirectly benefits Martian climate models which currently assume spherical and cylindrical particles.

Cooper, Brittney↗

NASA NTRS2015

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗

DOE OSTI2025

Viral Dynamic Models During COVID‐19: Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?

Mathematical models have been used for about 30 years to improve our understanding of virus-host interaction, in particular during chronic infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these models have been used to provide insights into the natural history of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, optimize antiviral treatment strategies, understand factors associated with transmission, and optimize surveillance systems. The impact of modeling has been accelerated by the availability of unprecedented multidimensional immune data from animal and human systems, which enhanced partnerships between experimentalists and theorists and led to exciting new modeling and statistical developments. In this mini review, we examine the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss the main insights provided by mathematical models of viral dynamics at the different stages of the outbreak. Although we focus on respiratory infection, we also consider the new areas for development in anticipation of future acute infections from new or reemerging pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗