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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-Temporal Denoising Graph Autoencoders with Data Augmentation for Missing Photovoltaic Data Imputation

The integration of the global Photovoltaic (PV) market with real time data-loggers has enabled large scale PV data analytical pipelines for power forecasting and long-term reliability assessment of PV fleets. Nevertheless, the performance of PV data analysis heavily depends on the quality of PV timeseries data. This paper proposes a novel Spatio-Temporal Denoising Graph Autoencoder (STD-GAE) framework to impute missing PV Power Data. STDGAE exploits temporal correlation, spatial coherence, and value dependencies from domain knowledge to recover missing data. It is empowered by two modules. (1) To cope with sparse yet various scenarios of missing data, STD-GAE incorporates a domain-knowledge aware data augmentation module that creates plausible variations of missing data patterns. This generalizes STD-GAE to robust imputation over different seasons and environment. (2) STD-GAE nontrivially integrates spatiotemporal graph convolution layers (to recover local missing data by observed “neighboring” PV plants) and denoising autoencoder (to recover corrupted data from augmented counterpart) to improve the accuracy of imputation accuracy at PV fleet level. We have evaluated our proposed model on two realworld PV datasets. Experimental results show that STD-GAE can achieve a gain of 43.14% in imputation accuracy and remains less sensitive to missing rate, different seasons, and missing scenarios, compared with state-of-the-art data imputation methods such as MIDA and LRTC-TNN.

Fan, Yangxin↗
DOE OSTI2014

Area 2: Inexpensive Monitoring and Uncertainty Assessment of CO 2 Plume Migration using Injection Data

In-depth understanding of the long-term fate of CO₂ in the subsurface requires study and analysis of the reservoir formation, the overlaying caprock formation, and adjacent faults. Because there is significant uncertainty in predicting the location and extent of geologic heterogeneity that can impact the future migration of CO₂ in the subsurface, there is a need to develop algorithms that can reliably quantify this uncertainty in plume migration. This project is focused on the development of a model selection algorithm that refines an initial suite of subsurface models representing the prior uncertainty to create a posterior set of subsurface models that reflect injection performance consistent with that observed. Such posterior models can be used to represent uncertainty in the future migration of the CO₂ plume. Because only injection data is required, the method provides a very inexpensive method to map the migration of the plume and the associated uncertainty in migration paths. The model selection method developed as part of this project mainly consists of assessing the connectivity/dynamic characteristics of a large prior ensemble of models, grouping the models on the basis of their expected dynamic response, selecting the subgroup of models that most closely yield dynamic response closest to the observed dynamic data, and finally quantifying the uncertainty in plume migration using the selected subset of models. The main accomplishment of the project is the development of a software module within the SGEMS earth modeling software package that implements the model selection methodology. This software module was subsequently applied to analyze CO₂ plume migration in two field projects – the In Salah CO₂ Injection project in Algeria and CO₂ injection into the Utsira formation in Norway. These applications of the software revealed that the proxies developed in this project for quickly assessing the dynamic characteristics of the reservoir were highly efficient and yielded accurate grouping of reservoir models. The plume migration paths probabilistically assessed by the method were confirmed by field observations and auxiliary data. The report also documents the application of the software to answer practical questions such as the optimum location of monitoring wells to reliably assess the migration of CO₂ plume, the effect of CO₂-rock interactions on plume migration and the ability to detect the plume under those conditions and the effect of a slow, unresolved leak on the predictions of plume migration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning and Fast Adaptation for Grid Emergency Control via Deep Meta Reinforcement Learning

As power systems are undergoing a significant transformation with more uncertainties, less inertia and closer to operation limits, there is increasing risk of large outages. Thus, there is an imperative need to enhance grid emergency control to maintain system reliability and security. Towards this end, great progress has been made in developing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based grid control solutions in recent years. However, existing DRL-based solutions have two main limitations: 1) they cannot handle well with a wide range of grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies; 2) they generally lack the ability to fast adapt to new grid operation conditions, system parameters, and contingencies, limiting their applicability for real-world applications. Here, in this paper, we mitigate these limitations by developing a novel deep meta-reinforcement learning (DMRL) algorithm. The DMRL combines the meta strategy optimization together with DRL, and trains policies modulated by a latent space that can quickly adapt to new scenarios. We test the developed DMRL algorithm on the IEEE 300-bus system. We demonstrate fast adaptation of the meta-trained DRL polices with latent variables to new operating conditions and scenarios using the proposed method, which achieves superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art DRL and model predictive control (MPC) methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Improved Geothermometry Through Multivariate Reaction-path Modeling and Evaluation of Geomicrobiological Influences on Geochemical Temperature Indicators: Final Report

The project was aimed at demonstrating that the geothermometric predictions can be improved through the application of multi-element reaction path modeling that accounts for lithologic and tectonic settings, while also accounting for biological influences on geochemical temperature indicators. The limited utilization of chemical signatures by individual traditional geothermometer in the development of reservoir temperature estimates may have been constraining their reliability for evaluation of potential geothermal resources. This project, however, was intended to build a geothermometry tool which can integrate multi-component reaction path modeling with process-optimization capability that can be applied to dilute, low-temperature water samples to consistently predict reservoir temperature within ±30 °C. The project was also intended to evaluate the extent to which microbiological processes can modulate the geochemical signals in some thermal waters and influence the geothermometric predictions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Hot‐Swappable, Fault‐Tolerant, Modular Power Converter System for Solar Photovoltaic Plants

The performance metrics of the state-of-the-art commercial solar inverters, such as system cost, operation and maintenance (O&M) cost, service life, reliability, maintainability, and power density are much lower than the target metrics needed to achieve SunShot’s 2030 levelized cost of energy (LCOE) goals. To overcome the shortcomings of the existing solar inverters, this project proposed a novel Hot-Swappable, Fault-Tolerant, Modular Power Converter (HSFT-MPC) concept for solar photovoltaic (PV) plants and proved the concept through the design, fabrication, and laboratory test validation of a single-phase HSFT-MPC prototype. The HSFT-MPC has the following distinct advantages over the state-of-the-art: 1) elimination of harmonic/ electromagnetic interference (EMI) filter in the inverter stage due to the novel topology, 2) lower system cost and higher power density due to the modular design, elimination of harmonic/EMI filter, and lower cooling requirement, 3) higher efficiency due to lower switching frequencies, 4) higher reliability and longer (50 years) service life due to simpler cooling and fault tolerance capability, 5) easier installation, lower O&M cost, and improved maintainability due to the modular design and hot-swappable power electronic building blocks (PEBBs), and 6) improved manufacturability due to the modular design. This project developed a single-phase HSFT-MPC prototype with 25kW nominal output power, 2.4kV, 60Hz nominal AC output, lower than 5% AC output voltage total harmonic distortion, over 5 kW/L inverter power density, and 99.4% inverter peak efficiency, being tolerant to failure of single and multiple PEBBs, and capable of hot swapping of the failed PEBB(s). The HSFT-MPC enables uninterruptable operation of the solar PV plant when failure of single or multiple PEBBs or PV modules occurs. Compared with the existing solar inverters in the market, the HSFT-MPC is expected to reduce the inverter failure-caused downtime and energy losses of solar PV plants by more than 60% and 50%, respectively. Project findings have been presented at major conferences in the field and published in peer-reviewed papers, which added new knowledge to the field of power electronics for solar PV systems. A minicourse on Solar PV Systems was developed for outreach activities. The minicourse will help attract young individuals to the renewable energy profession which has a significant talent shortage. The HSFT-MPC is expected to overcome all of the shortcomings of the state-of-the-art solar inverters in terms of cost, efficiency, service life, reliability, maintainability, and manufacturability targets needed to achieve SunShot’s 2030 LCOE goals. Therefore, the proposed HSFT-MPC concept has the great potential to disrupt the current solar inverter market. This project created a pathway towards industry adoption of the HSFT-MPC to help achieve 50-year service life solar PV systems. Since the solar PV plants using the HSFT-MPC will feature with higher reliability, longer service life, and easier maintenance, they are particularly useful for the rural areas with underserved populations that demand reliable and affordable clean electricity. The outcomes of the project have the strong potential to address national needs in the field of renewable energy to reduce CO 2 emissions from the electricity sector, reduce imports of energy from foreign sources, and improve energy security, efficiency, and sustainability. Since electricity is used in almost all of society’s sectors, the outcomes of the project will benefit various sectors of society and economy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing Thermal Degradation of Perovskite Solar Cells during Vacuum Lamination by Internal Diffusion Barriers

Current photovoltaic (PV) panels typically contain interconnected solar cells that are vacuum laminated with a polymer encapsulant between two pieces of glass or glass with a polymer backsheet. This packaging approach is ubiquitous in conventional photovoltaic technologies such as silicon and thinfilm solar modules, contributing to thermal management, mechanical reinforcement, and environmental protection to enable the long lifetimes necessary to become financially acceptable. Commercial vacuum lamination processes typically occur at 150 °C to ensure cross-linking and/or glass bonding of the encapsulant to the glass and PV cells. Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) have emerged as a promising next-generation PV technology that is known to degrade under thermal stresses, especially at temperatures above 100 °C. In this study, we determine degradation modes during lamination and engineer internal diffusion barriers within the PSC to withstand the harsh thermal conditions of vacuum lamination. PSCs with self-assembled monolayers at the ITO interface and SnO X layers deposited by atomic layer deposition at the electron extraction side of the device endured vacuum lamination at conditions typical of commercial PV processes (150 °C) without degradation. This work demonstrates that perovskite PV can be integrated into the existing module lamination process, enabling future single- and multijunction modules utilizing perovskite absorbers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

7.2 kV Three-Port SiC Single-Stage Current-Source Solid-State Transformer With 90 kV Lightning Protection

This article proposes a multiport modular single-stage current-source solid-state transformer (SST) for applications like photovoltaic, energy storage integration, electric vehicle fast charging, data center, etc. The 7.2 kV 50 kVA current-source SST consists of five input-series output-parallel modules, each based on 3.3 kV SiC reverse-blocking MOSFET-plus-diode modules. The proposed SST has some unique features. First, compared to the voltage-source or matrix converter-based SSTs, the current-source SST has a unique advantage of single-stage isolated AC/DC or AC/AC conversion with an inductive DC link, but no medium-voltage (MV) AC experiments have been reported. This article for the first time demonstrates MV AC current-source SST up to 7.5 kV peak. Second, the multiport SST has a buffer port for active power decoupling (APD) or energy storage integration. The double-line-frequency power ripple from single-phase AC grid normally results in a large capacitor size in MV SSTs. The APD scheme is proposed in MV applications for the first time to enable a reduced DC link and the electrolytic capacitor-less SST with high reliability. Third, as a direct grid-connected converter without line-frequency transformer, insulation and protection are critical. A medium-frequency transformer design passes 55 kV basic-insulation level (BIL) and 60 kV high potential dielectrics withstand test with only 0.09% leakage inductance. Importantly, a lightning protection scheme is presented to protect the SST itself from 90 kV BIL impulse. Fourth, the proposed current-source SST topology is a modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) with full-range zero-voltage switching and controlled dv/dt for low electromagnetic interference. Furthermore, these concepts are verified in a three-port M-S4T prototype with forced oil cooling under single-module, stacked-module, steady-state, and dynamic operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Upgrade of the mechanically pumped CO 2 two-phase cooling system for the alpha magnetic spectrometer on the international space station

This study describes the successful upgrade of a mechanically pumped CO 2 two-phase cooling system in space by designing a new pump module for the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer-02 on the International Space Station. Key factors for mission success are emphasized, including achieving high coolant filling accuracy within 10% of the target and maintaining system stability within ±1 °C. The impact of adding radiators to improve cooling efficiency is examined, and it is found that operating multi-radiators out-of-phase does not significantly affect system reliability. The centrifugal pump design is shown to allow for better lubricant circulation, while the in-house designed controller incorporates protective measures to prevent cavitation, overheating, and over-current. Further, this research advances the understanding of circulation loop systems and their upgrades in space and demonstrates the potential for extending the lifetime of space-borne mechanically pumped two-phase cooling systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ammonium Looping with Membrane Absorber and Distributed Stripper for Enhanced Algae Growth

The objective of this project is to conduct a comprehensive investigation to develop and demonstrate a practical, reliable, and cost-effective integrated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and biofixation process for algae production. This process utilizes a chemical hindered ammonium solution (NH 4 OH) as both a capture reagent and an algae nutrient. The membrane absorber employed in the system ensured minimal ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions in the treated flue gas. Additionally, distributed solar-energy powered strippers located near the bioreactor modules facilitate solvent regeneration and enable just-in-time delivery of CO 2 and NH 3 to the algae, thereby minimizing the pH swing for enhanced productivity. The proposed membrane CO 2 absorber and solar-powered stripper is designed and seamlessly integrated with the existing 0.1 MWth bench-scale CO 2 capture system (CCS) and open raceway ponds (ORPs) at the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy (UK CAER) campus. The entire integrated process has undergone construction, operation, testing, and analysis. Furthermore, technology has been evaluated with a techno-economic analysis (TEA), technology gap analysis (TGA), life-cycle analysis (LCA), and a technology maturation plan (TMP). This project was performed within two budget periods, 54 months in duration. There are fourteen Project Tasks, twelve Milestones and four Success Criteria.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility at 12 GeV

This review paper describes the energy-upgraded Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) accelerator. This superconducting linac has achieved 12 GeV beam energy by adding 11 new high-performance cryomodules containing 88 superconducting cavities that have operated cw at an average accelerating gradient of 20 MV / m . After reviewing the attributes and performance of the previous 6 GeV CEBAF accelerator, we discuss the upgraded CEBAF accelerator system in detail with particular attention paid to the new beam acceleration systems. In addition to doubling the acceleration in each linac, the upgrade included improving the beam recirculation magnets, adding more helium cooling capacity to allow the newly installed modules to run cold, adding a new experimental hall, and improving numerous other accelerator components. We review several of the techniques deployed to operate and analyze the accelerator performance and document system operating experience and performance. In the final portion of the document, we present much of the current planning regarding projects to improve accelerator performance and enhance operating margins, and our plans for ensuring CEBAF operates reliably into the future. For the benefit of potential users of CEBAF, the performance and quality measures for the beam delivered to each of the experimental halls are summarized in the Appendix. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anisotropic Satellite Galaxy Quenching: A Unique Signature of Energetic Feedback by Supermassive Black Holes?

The quenched fraction of satellite galaxies is aligned with the orientation of the halo's central galaxy, such that on average, satellites form stars at a lower rate along the major axis of the central. This effect, called anisotropic satellite galaxy quenching (ASGQ), has been found in observational data and cosmological simulations. Analyzing the IllustrisTNG simulation, Martín-Navarro et al. recently argued that ASGQ is caused by anisotropic energetic feedback and constitutes "compelling observational evidence for the role of black holes in regulating galaxy evolution." In this Letter, we study the causes of ASGQ in state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations to evaluate this claim. We show that cosmological simulations predict that on average, satellite galaxies along the major axis of the dark matter halo tend to have been accreted at earlier cosmic times and are hosted by subhalos of larger peak halo masses. As a result, a modulation of the quenched fraction with respect to the major axis of the central galaxy is a natural prediction of hierarchical structure formation. We show that ASGQ is predicted by the UniverseMachine galaxy formation model, a model without anisotropic feedback. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even in the IllustrisTNG simulation, anisotropic satellite accretion properties are the main cause of ASGQ. Ultimately, we argue that ASGQ is not a reliable indicator of supermassive black hole feedback in galaxy formation simulations and, thus, should not be interpreted as such in observational data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Plans for an ERL Test Facility at CERN

The baseline electron accelerator for LHeC and one option for FCC-he is an Energy Recovery Linac. To prepare and study the necessary key technologies, CERNhas started – in collaboration with JLAB and Mainz University – the conceptual design of an ERL Test Facility (ERL-TF). Staged construction will allow the study under different conditions with up to 3 passes, beam energies of up to about 1 GeV and currents of up to 50 mA. The design and development of superconducting cavity modules, including coupler and HOM damper designs, are also of central importance for other existing and future accelerators and their tests are at the heart of the current ERL-TF goals. However, the ERL-TF could also provide a unique infrastructure for several applications that go beyond developing and testing the ERL technology at CERN. In addition to experimental studies of beam dynamics, operational and reliability issues in an ERL, it could equally serve for quench tests of superconducting magnets, as physics experimental facility on its own right or as test stand for detector developments. This contribution will describe the goals and the concept of the facility and the status of the R&D.

Jensen, Erik↗
DOE OSTI2019

Monolingual but not bilingual infants demonstrate racial bias in social cue use

Abstract Bilingualism exerts early and pervasive effects on cognition, observable in infancy. Thus far, investigations of infant bilingual cognition have focused on sensitivity to visual memory, executive function, and linguistic sensitivity. Much less research has focused on how bilingualism impacts processing of social cues. The present study sought to investigate whether bilingualism modulates the expression of one aspect of social processing: early racial bias. Using a gaze‐following paradigm, we investigated whether 18‐ to 20‐month‐old monolingual and bilingual infants favored their own race. Results demonstrated that monolingual infants favored their own race in following a model whose direction of gaze signaled an event. In contrast, bilingual infants demonstrated race‐neutral gaze‐following patterns, relying more heavily on the reliability of the behavior of the model over race. Findings suggest that bilingualism may have protective effects against the early emergence of racial bias.

Singh, Leher↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Mu2e crystal calorimeter

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for the charged-lepton flavour violating conversion of negative muons into electrons in the coulomb field of an Al nucleus, planning to reach a single event sensitivity of about $3\cdot10^{−17}$, four orders of magnitude beyond the current best limit.The conversion electron has a clear monoenergetic signature at 104.967 MeV, slightly below the muon rest mass, and will be identified by a complementary measurement carried out by a high-resolution tracker and an electromagnetic calorimeter (EMC). The calorimeter is composed of 1348 pure CsI crystals, each read by two custom UV-extended SiPMs, that are arranged in two annular disks. The EMC should achieve better than 10% energy resolution and 500 ps timing resolution for 100 MeV electrons and maintain extremely high levels of reliability and stability and in a harsh operating environment with high vacuum, 1 T B-field and radiation exposures up to 100 krad and $10^{12} \rm{n}_\rm{1MeVeq}/\rm{cm}^{2}$.The calorimeter technological choice, along with the design of the custom front-end electronics, cooling and mechanical systems were validated through an electron beam test on a large-scale 51-crystals prototype (Module-0) and extensive test campaigns that characterised and verified the performance of crystals, photodetectors, analogue and digital electronics. This included hardware stress tests and irradiation campaigns with neutrons, protons, and photons.The production and QC phases of all calorimeter components is completed apart for the digital electronics that has been revised for improving its resilience to SEU and SEL. A series of vertical slice tests with the final electronics is being carried out on the Module-0 at LNF along with the implementation and validation of the calibration procedures. The first disk has been assembled in 2022 while the second disk is under assembly at the moment of writing. Status of construction will be summarised, along with plans for commissioning and first calibration of the fully assembled disks.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shaping Peptide Assemblies Using Multifaceted Cyclic Tectons

Constructing distinct biomacromolecular assemblies typically necessitates target-specific selection and engineering of building blocks alongside optimization of assembly conditions. The challenge lies in achieving diverse morphological outcomes using simple, shared modules under identical conditions, a hallmark of natural systems that remains elusive in synthetic approaches. Here, in this work, we present a molecular scaffold-based strategy to instruct the coassembly of the same set of peptides into a variety of nanostructures across multiple dimensions. We create trifaceted cyclic scaffolds to manipulate two pairs of dimeric coiled-coil peptides prior to coassembly. These scaffolds, with addressable and orthogonal modules, allow controlled exposure of their cohesive faces, directing the formation of nanotriangles and fibrillar and lamellar assemblies. By tuning interpeptide arrangements that dictate scaffold geometry, we construct nonstraight fibrils with tunable curvature, which are rarely observed before. Notably, these scaffolds exhibit plasticity in adapting the sizes and orientations of cohesive faces to different assembly morphologies. The resultant nanostructures are consistent with the design and simulation results, demonstrating the reliability and predictability of this approach. Multifaceted cyclic scaffolds bridge the intellectual and physical gaps between building peptides and assemblies, holding promise for endowing various existing assembly systems with high tunability and versatility.

assembly morphology↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Kinetic Monte Carlo model for material aging: Simulations of second phase formation at Au/Bi{sub 2}Te{sub 3} junction in oxygen environments

Electronic properties of semiconductor devices are sensitive to defects such as second phase precipitates, grain sizes, and voids. These defects can evolve over time especially under oxidation environments and it is therefore important to understand the resulting aging behavior in order for the reliable applications of devices. In this paper, we propose a kinetic Monte Carlo framework capable of simultaneous simulation of the evolution of second phases, precipitates, grain sizes, and voids in complicated systems involving many species including oxygen. This kinetic Monte Carlo model calculates the energy barriers of various events based directly on the experimental data. As a first step of our model implementation, we incorporate the second phase formation module in the parallel kinetic Monte Carlo codes SPPARKS. Selected aging simulations are performed to examine the formation of second phase precipitates at the eletroplated Au/Bi{sub 2}Te{sub 3} interface under oxygen and oxygen-free environments, and the results are compared with the corresponding experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaic Module Imaging for Hail Damage Assessment with Multi-Year Follow Up

Outdoor-aged photovoltaic modules that have experienced golf-ball sized hail are characterized by flash testing and photoluminescence, electroluminescence, thermal, and ultraviolet fluorescence imaging. These measurements were performed immediately after the hailstorm and then again after another two years and four years in the field. The modules originally experienced different ranges of hail damage with some having cracks on approximately half of the cells and some having few to no cracked cells. Flash testing shows that the hail-damaged modules with the most cracked cells have 3 to 4% less power than those with the least damage. After four more years in the outdoor climate of Golden, Colorado since the hailstorm, all of the modules still exhibit similar relative power and amounts of cell cracking, suggesting that the hail damage has only initially reduced power but has not yet increased the degradation rate.

electroluminescence↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term impact of light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation on photovoltaic arrays

Low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been identified as critical for widespread adoption of photovoltaics (PV) without subsidies. Maintaining decades-long high-energy production is often an under-recognized opportunity in meeting cost goals because component lifetimes are not fully quantified at the time of manufacture. Whereas certain standardized tests minimize risk of early failure, there is little guidance to quantitatively predict degradation (or lack thereof) over decades, based on accelerated tests. In this article, we move toward bridging the understanding between indoor accelerated tests and outdoor performance data, with the goal of predicting energy yield with enough accuracy to inform financial decisions. Light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LETID) in p-type Si modules is analyzed in terms of impact on long-term module performance and thus LCOE. A method to predict the progression of LETID, using fixed kinetic constants and a numerical solution to the basic reaction rate equations, is detailed. Predictions are compared against both published data and that new to this study. These data include both indoor accelerated tests and fielded modules. We use the results in financial models to derive LCOE of modules in different climates with varying amounts of LETID, including uncertainty. Cost models based on the predictions indicate that LETID has a significant and climate-dependent impact on LCOE. Finally, we show that - even given the uncertainties identified in the study - these financial calculations can provide useful guidance to quantify risk based on accelerated test results. The analysis serves as an example of developing a predictive approach to PV reliability using physics of failure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗