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At least 775 records · Page 43

Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. Here, this paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

Anomaly detection↗

Assessing Intra-arterial Complications of Planning and Treatment Angiograms for Y-90 Radioembolization

PurposeTo report hepatic arterial-related complications encountered during planning and treatment angiograms for radioembolization and understand any potential-associated risk factors.Materials and Methods518 mapping or treatment angiograms for 180 patients with primary or metastatic disease to the liver treated by Yttrium-90 radioembolization between 2/2010 and 12/2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Intra-procedural complications were recorded per SIR guidelines. Patient demographics, indication for treatment, prior exposure to chemotherapeutic agents, operator experience, and disease burden were reviewed. Technical variables including type of radioembolic (glass vs. resin microspheres), indication for angiography (mapping vs. treatment), variant anatomy, and attempts at coil embolization were also assessed.ResultsThirteen (13/518, 2.5%) arterial-related complications occurred in 13 patients. All but two complications resulted during transcatheter coil embolization to prevent non-target embolization. Complications included coil migration (n = 6), arterial dissection (n = 2), focal vessel perforation (n = 2), arterial thrombus (n = 2), and vasospasm prohibiting further arterial sub-selection (n = 1). Transarterial coiling was identified as a significant risk factor of complications on both univariate and multivariate regression analysis (odds ratio 7.8, P = 0.004). Usage of resin microspheres was also a significant risk factor (odds ratio 9.5, P = 0.042). No other technical parameters or pre-procedural variables were significant after adjusting for confounding on multivariate analysis (P > 0.05).ConclusionIntra-procedural hepatic arterial complications encountered during radioembolization were infrequent but occurred mainly during coil embolization to prevent non-target delivery to extra-hepatic arteries.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Assessment of Critical Events Corridors through Multivariate Cascading Outages Analysis

Massive blackouts of electrical power systems in North America over the past decade has focused increasing attention upon ways to identify and simulate network events that may potentially lead to widespread network collapse. This paper summarizes a method to simulate power-system vulnerability to cascading failures to a supplied set of initiating events synonymously termed as Extreme Events. The implemented simulation method is currently confined to simulating steady state power-system response to a set of extreme events. The outlined method of simulation is meant to augment and provide a new insight into bulk power transmission network planning that at present remains mainly confined to maintaining power system security for single and double component outages under a number of projected future network operating conditions. Although one of the aims of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of simulating network vulnerability to cascading outages, a more important goal has been to determine vulnerable parts of the network that may potentially be strengthened in practice so as to mitigate system susceptibility to cascading failures. This paper proposes to demonstrate a systematic approach to analyze extreme events and identify vulnerable system elements that may be contributing to cascading outages. The hypothesis of critical events corridors is proposed to represent repeating sequential outages that can occur in the system for multiple initiating events. The new concept helps to identify system reinforcements that planners could engineer in order to 'break' the critical events sequences and therefore lessen the likelihood of cascading outages. This hypothesis has been successfully validated with a California power system model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A State-Space Model of an Inverter-Based Microgrid for Multivariable Feedback Control Analysis and Design

In this work, a synchronous model for grid-connected and islanded microgrids is presented. The grid-connected model is based on the premise that the reference frame is synchronized with the AC bus. The quadrature component of the AC bus voltage can be cancelled, which allows to express output power as a linear equation for nominal values in the AC bus amplitude voltage. The model for the islanded microgrid is developed by integrating all the inverter dynamics using a state-space model for the load currents. This model is presented in a comprehensive way such that it could be scalable to any number of inverter-based generators using inductor–capacitor–inductor (LCL) output filters. The use of these models allows designers to assess microgrid stability and robustness using modern control methods such as eigenvalue analysis and singular value diagrams. Both models were tested and validated in an experimental setup to demonstrate their accuracy in describing microgrid dynamics. In addition, three scenarios are presented: non-controlled model, Linear-Quadratic Integrator (LQI) power control, and Power-Voltage (PQ/Vdq) droop–boost controller. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the control strategies and the accuracy of the models to describe microgrid dynamics.

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Determination of elemental impurities in plastic calibration standards using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

Dual-energy computed tomography (CT) scanning is a rapidly emerging imaging technique employed in nondestructive evaluation of various materials. CT has been used for characterizing rocks and visualizing multiphase flow through rocks for over 25 years. The most common technique for dual-energy CT scanning relies on homogeneous calibration standards to produce the most accurate decoupled data. However, the use of calibration standards with impurities increases the probability of error in the reconstructed data and results in poor rock characterization. Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy was used to determine impurity concentration in a set of commercially purchased calibration standards used in dual-energy scanning for material identification with coal samples. Two calibration models were developed by using univariate calibration with the internal ratio method and multiple linear regression. Seven elements (Al, Fe, Mg, Na, Ni, Sr, and Ti) were examined in five different samples containing varying amounts of each ion to compare calibration from univariate data analysis and from multivariate data analysis. The contaminant concentrations were also measured by a commercially available inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy instrument, and the data were used as a reference in developing calibration curves for a modified version of the single linear regression model and the multiple linear regression model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Phenomenology Studies Using a Scanning Fully Polarimetric Passive W-Band Millimeter Wave Imager

We present experimental results obtained from a scanning passive W-band fully polarimetric imager. In addition to a conventional approach to polarimetric image analysis in which the Stokes I, Q, U, and V images were formed and displayed, we present an alternative method for polarimetric image exploitation based upon multivariate image analysis (MIA). MIA uses principal component analysis (PCA) and 2D scatter or score plots to identify various pixel classes in the image compared with the more conventional scene-based image analysis approaches. Multivariate image decomposition provides a window into the complementary interplay between spatial and statistical correlations contained in the data.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Embolotherapy for Neuroendocrine Tumor Liver Metastases: Prognostic Factors for Hepatic Progression-Free Survival and Overall Survival

PurposeThe purpose of the study was to evaluate prognostic factors for survival outcomes following embolotherapy for neuroendocrine tumor (NET) liver metastases.Materials and MethodsThis was a multicenter retrospective study of 155 patients (60 years mean age, 57 % male) with NET liver metastases from pancreas (n = 71), gut (n = 68), lung (n = 8), or other/unknown (n = 8) primary sites treated with conventional transarterial chemoembolization (TACE, n = 50), transarterial radioembolization (TARE, n = 64), or transarterial embolization (TAE, n = 41) between 2004 and 2015. Patient-, tumor-, and treatment-related factors were evaluated for prognostic effect on hepatic progression-free survival (HPFS) and overall survival (OS) using unadjusted and propensity score-weighted univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.ResultsMedian HPFS and OS were 18.5 and 125.1 months for G1 (n = 75), 12.2 and 33.9 months for G2 (n = 60), and 4.9 and 9.3 months for G3 tumors (n = 20), respectively (p < 0.05). Tumor burden >50 % hepatic volume demonstrated 5.5- and 26.8-month shorter median HPFS and OS, respectively, versus burden ≤50 % (p < 0.05). There were no significant differences in HPFS or OS between gut or pancreas primaries. In multivariate HPFS analysis, there were no significant differences among embolotherapy modalities. In multivariate OS analysis, TARE had a higher hazard ratio than TACE (unadjusted Cox model: HR 2.1, p = 0.02; propensity score adjusted model: HR 1.8, p = 0.11), while TAE did not differ significantly from TACE.ConclusionHigher tumor grade and tumor burden prognosticated shorter HPFS and OS. TARE had a higher hazard ratio for OS than TACE. There were no significant differences in HPFS among embolotherapy modalities.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Cytological Sampling Versus Forceps Biopsy During Percutaneous Transhepatic Biliary Drainage and Analysis of Factors Predicting Success

Purpose: To assess the accuracy of cytological sampling and forceps biopsy in obstructing biliary lesions and to identify factors predictive of success. Methods: Consecutive patients (n = 119) with suspected malignant inoperable obstructive jaundice treated with percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage during 7 years were included (60 male; mean age 72.5 years). All patients underwent forceps biopsy plus cytological sampling by washing the forceps device in cytological solution. Patient history, procedural and pathological records, and clinical follow-up were reviewed. Statistical analysis included chi-square test and multivariate regression analysis. Results: Histological diagnosis after forceps biopsy was more successful than cytology: Sensitivity was 78 versus 61%, and negative predictive value was 30 versus 19%. Cytology results were never positive when the forceps biopsy was negative. The cytological sample was negative and forceps sample positive in 2 cases of cholangiocarcinoma, 16 cases of pancreatic carcinoma, and 1 case of benign disease. Diagnostic accuracy was predicted by low bilirubin (p < 0.001), aspartate transaminase (p < 0.05), and white cell count (p {<=} 0.05). Conclusions: This technique is safe and effective and is recommended for histological diagnosis during PTBD in patients with inoperable malignant biliary strictures. Diagnostic yield is greater when bilirubin levels are low and there is no sepsis; histological diagnosis by way of forceps biopsy renders cytological sampling unnecessary.

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Use of the Charlson Combined Comorbidity Index To Predict Postradiotherapy Quality of Life for Prostate Cancer Patients

Purpose: To determine the impact of pretreatment comorbidity on late health-related quality of life (HRQoL) scores after patients have undergone combined radiotherapy for prostate cancer, including high-dose rate brachytherapy boost and hormonal deprivation therapy. Methods and Materials: Results from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 questionnaire survey of 158 patients 5 years or more after completion of therapy were used from consecutively accrued subjects treated with curative radiotherapy at our institution, with no signs of disease at the time of questionnaire completion. HRQoL scores were compared with the Charlson combined comorbidity index (CCI), using analysis of covariance and multivariate regression models together with pretreatment factors including tumor stage, tumor grade, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen level, neoadjuvant hormonal treatment, diabetes status, cardiovascular status, and age and Charlson score as separate variables or the composite CCI. Results: An inverse correlation between the two HRQoL domains, long-term global health (QL) and physical function (PF) scores, and the CCI score was observed, indicating an impact of comorbidity in these function areas. Selected pretreatment factors poorly explained the variation in functional HRQoL in the multivariate models; however, a statistically significant impact was found for the CCI (with QL and PF scores) and the presence of diabetes (with QL and emotional function). Cognitive function and social function were not statistically significantly predicted by any of the pretreatment factors. Conclusions: The CCI proved to be valid in this context, but it seems useful mainly in predicting long-term QL and PF scores. Of the other variables investigated, diabetes had more impact than cardiovascular morbidity on HRQoL outcomes in prostate cancer.

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Quantitative Assessment of Workload and Stressors in Clinical Radiation Oncology

Purpose: Workload level and sources of stressors have been implicated as sources of error in multiple settings. We assessed workload levels and sources of stressors among radiation oncology professionals. Furthermore, we explored the potential association between workload and the frequency of reported radiotherapy incidents by the World Health Organization (WHO). Methods and Materials: Data collection was aimed at various tasks performed by 21 study participants from different radiation oncology professional subgroups (simulation therapists, radiation therapists, physicists, dosimetrists, and physicians). Workload was assessed using National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task-Load Index (NASA TLX). Sources of stressors were quantified using observational methods and segregated using a standard taxonomy. Comparisons between professional subgroups and tasks were made using analysis of variance ANOVA, multivariate ANOVA, and Duncan test. An association between workload levels (NASA TLX) and the frequency of radiotherapy incidents (WHO incidents) was explored (Pearson correlation test). Results: A total of 173 workload assessments were obtained. Overall, simulation therapists had relatively low workloads (NASA TLX range, 30-36), and physicists had relatively high workloads (NASA TLX range, 51-63). NASA TLX scores for physicians, radiation therapists, and dosimetrists ranged from 40-52. There was marked intertask/professional subgroup variation (P<.0001). Mental demand (P<.001), physical demand (P=.001), and effort (P=.006) significantly differed among professional subgroups. Typically, there were 3-5 stressors per cycle of analyzed tasks with the following distribution: interruptions (41.4%), time factors (17%), technical factors (13.6%), teamwork issues (11.6%), patient factors (9.0%), and environmental factors (7.4%). A positive association between workload and frequency of reported radiotherapy incidents by the WHO was found (r = 0.87, P value=.045). Conclusions: Workload level and sources of stressors vary among professional subgroups. Understanding the factors that influence these findings can guide adjustments to the workflow procedures, physical layout, and/or communication protocols to enhance safety. Additional evaluations are needed in order to better understand if these findings are systemic.

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Propensity Score-based Comparison of Long-term Outcomes With 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiotherapy vs Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Esophageal Cancer

Purpose: Although 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) is the worldwide standard for the treatment of esophageal cancer, intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) improves dose conformality and reduces the radiation exposure to normal tissues. We hypothesized that the dosimetric advantages of IMRT should translate to substantive benefits in clinical outcomes compared with 3D-CRT. Methods and Materials: An analysis was performed of 676 nonrandomized patients (3D-CRT, n=413; IMRT, n=263) with stage Ib-IVa (American Joint Committee on Cancer 2002) esophageal cancers treated with chemoradiotherapy at a single institution from 1998-2008. An inverse probability of treatment weighting and inclusion of propensity score (treatment probability) as a covariate were used to compare overall survival time, interval to local failure, and interval to distant metastasis, while accounting for the effects of other clinically relevant covariates. The propensity scores were estimated using logistic regression analysis. Results: A fitted multivariate inverse probability weighted-adjusted Cox model showed that the overall survival time was significantly associated with several well-known prognostic factors, along with the treatment modality (IMRT vs 3D-CRT, hazard ratio 0.72, P<.001). Compared with IMRT, 3D-CRT patients had a significantly greater risk of dying (72.6% vs 52.9%, inverse probability of treatment weighting, log-rank test, P<.0001) and of locoregional recurrence (P=.0038). No difference was seen in cancer-specific mortality (Gray's test, P=.86) or distant metastasis (P=.99) between the 2 groups. An increased cumulative incidence of cardiac death was seen in the 3D-CRT group (P=.049), but most deaths were undocumented (5-year estimate, 11.7% in 3D-CRT vs 5.4% in IMRT group, Gray's test, P=.0029). Conclusions: Overall survival, locoregional control, and noncancer-related death were significantly better after IMRT than after 3D-CRT. Although these results need confirmation, IMRT should be considered for the treatment of esophageal cancer.

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Inorganic characterization of switchgrass biomass using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

The inorganic characterization of 74 samples of switchgrass using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was undertaken. Determination of ash and inorganic elements content in biomass materials is vital for feedstock screening for bioconversion processes. Hierarchical models using principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square analysis (PLS) were used to determine the presence of specific elemental micronutrients that are important in determining plant health for robust biomass production. LIBS uses a 532 nm laser with 45 mJ of laser power to excite the samples of switchgrass plant material and the emission of all the elements present in the plant samples were recorded in single spectra with a wide wavelength range of 200–800 nm. The results were compared to the laboratory standard technique, e.g., ICP-OES technique, to determine the true values for major micronutrients such as, silicon (Si), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), phosphorus (P), and sulfur (S). Overall, our objectives were: 1) To determine the spectral features of switchgrass containing different amounts of these elements and 2) To examine the viability of this technique for determining the quality of the feedstock in terms of its inorganic composition. Cross-validation results showed that the broad-based model developed is promising for inorganics prediction in switchgrass. The LIBS validation prediction for the micronutrient elements mentioned here have been obtained. The regression coefficients for Si, were obtained to be 0.995, 0.994 for calibration and validation respectively, in case of Ca the regression coefficients were, 0.994 and 0.992 for calibration and validation. Similarly, in the case of Mg and K these were calculated to be 0.992 and 0.985, and 0.994 and 0.993 respectively. The regression coefficients are not as good as those for the elements mentioned, in case of the two elements S and P. They are 0.957, and 0.878, and 0.952 and 0.894 respectively for calibration, validation for the two elements. This demonstrates that LIBS-based techniques are inherently well suited for diverse environmental applications. Furthermore, LIBS along with PLS model can show capability in determining the viability of switchgrass as a biomass in the production of biofuels and survivability of switchgrass in processes associated with climate change. LIBS can help determining which switchgrass would be appropriate for a specific conversion process that favors low ash content overall or low value of specific inorganics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spectroscopic Online Monitoring for Process Control and Safeguarding of Radiochemical Fuel Reprocessing Streams - 13553

There is a renewed interest worldwide to promote the use of nuclear power and close the nuclear fuel cycle. The long term successful use of nuclear power is critically dependent upon adequate and safe processing and disposition of the used nuclear fuel. Liquid-liquid extraction is a separation technique commonly employed for the processing of the dissolved spent nuclear fuel. The instrumentation used to monitor these processes must be robust, require little or no maintenance, and be able to withstand harsh environments such as high radiation fields and aggressive chemical matrices. This paper discusses application of absorption and vibrational spectroscopic techniques supplemented by physicochemical measurements for radiochemical process monitoring. In this context, our team experimentally assessed the potential of Raman and spectrophotometric techniques for on-line real-time monitoring of the U(VI)/nitrate ion/nitric acid and Pu(IV)/Np(V)/Nd(III), respectively, in solutions relevant to spent fuel reprocessing. Both techniques demonstrated robust performance in the repetitive batch measurements of each analyte in a wide concentration range using simulant and commercial dissolved spent fuel solutions. Static spectroscopic measurements served as training sets for the multivariate data analysis to obtain partial least squares predictive models, which were validated using on-line centrifugal contactor extraction tests. Satisfactory prediction of the analytes concentrations in these preliminary experiments warrants further development of the spectroscopy-based methods for radiochemical safeguards and process control. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Age Disparity in Palliative Radiation Therapy Among Patients With Advanced Cancer

Purpose/Objective: Palliative radiation therapy represents an important treatment option among patients with advanced cancer, although research shows decreased use among older patients. This study evaluated age-related patterns of palliative radiation use among an elderly Medicare population. Methods and Materials: We identified 63,221 patients with metastatic lung, breast, prostate, or colorectal cancer diagnosed between 2000 and 2007 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Receipt of palliative radiation therapy was extracted from Medicare claims. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis determined residual age-related disparity in the receipt of palliative radiation therapy after controlling for confounding covariates including age-related differences in patient and demographic covariates, length of life, and patient preferences for aggressive cancer therapy. Results: The use of radiation decreased steadily with increasing patient age. Forty-two percent of patients aged 66 to 69 received palliative radiation therapy. Rates of palliative radiation decreased to 38%, 32%, 24%, and 14% among patients aged 70 to 74, 75 to 79, 80 to 84, and over 85, respectively. Multivariate analysis found that confounding covariates attenuated these findings, although the decreased relative rate of palliative radiation therapy among the elderly remained clinically and statistically significant. On multivariate analysis, compared to patients 66 to 69 years old, those aged 70 to 74, 75 to 79, 80 to 84, and over 85 had a 7%, 15%, 25%, and 44% decreased rate of receiving palliative radiation, respectively (all P<.0001). Conclusions: Age disparity with palliative radiation therapy exists among older cancer patients. Further research should strive to identify barriers to palliative radiation among the elderly, and extra effort should be made to give older patients the opportunity to receive this quality of life-enhancing treatment at the end of life.

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