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Weatherization Assistant NEAT/MHEA

The software provides a measure selection technique indicating cost effective retrofit activities that can be applied to a home using a standard Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR). Users must provide an input file describing the characteristics of the home to be evaluated. The software takes the input data provided and calculates energy savings and cost savings predicted for a standard set of measures given the input parameters. The Weatherization Assistant computes estimates of pre-retrofit whole building space heating and cooling energy consumptions based on the house description data supplied by the user. The consumptions are computed using a monthly heating and cooling variable base degree-day method by algorithms similar to those developed for the CIRA program [LBL, 1982]. The building consumptions are needed in computing the energy savings from measures affecting the efficiencies of the heating and cooling equipment. Weatherization Assistant then computes the energy savings and costs for each individual measure applicable to the building described as if it were the only measure installed in the house. From these energy savings, a discounted dollar savings over the life of each measure is computed. The ratio of this dollar savings to the cost of installing the measure, the "savings-to-investment ratio" (SIR), is used in an initial ranking of the measures' effectiveness. The "interacted" savings and SIR of measures are then determined assuming the measures are added to the house collectively, in order of their ranking, e.g., the second ranked measure is installed in the house initially described by the user after having been modified by the first ranked measure. If this second-ranked measure's updated SIR is greater than a user-defined limit, the measure is left implemented, else it is removed so that the next measure's effectiveness is not dependent on it. The choice between two mutually exclusive measures (such as different levels of insulation) is made on the basis of their "net present value" (NPV), the difference of life-time savings and installation cost, rather than their SIR. This has been shown to be the more correct criterion on which to base the selection between two measures, both of which cannot be installed. The audit computes and reports to the user the energy savings, discounted dollar savings, installation cost, and SIR for each measure considered cost-effective. For those with SIR greater than the user-designated cutoff, a materials list gives the material name, type, and quantity required for installation of the measure. Weatherization Assistant permits entry of pre-retrofit billing data for gas or electrically heated homes or homes with electric air-conditioning. The user may then make the decision to have the savings of the measures adjusted to reflect the difference in billed consumption and that predicted by the program.

Gettings, Michael↗

Lens Model Accuracy in the Expected LSST Lensed AGN Sample

Strong gravitational lensing of active galactic nuclei (AGN) enables measurements of cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography (TDC). With data from the upcoming LSST survey, we anticipate using a sample of O(1000) lensed AGN for TDC. To prepare for this dataset and enable this measurement, we construct and analyze a realistic mock sample of 1300 systems drawn from the OM10 (Oguri & Marshall 2010) catalog of simulated lenses with AGN sources at $z<3.1$ in order to test a key aspect of the analysis pipeline, that of the lens modeling. We realize the lenses as power law elliptical mass distributions and simulate 5-year LSST i-band coadd images. From every image, we infer the lens mass model parameters using neural posterior estimation (NPE). Focusing on the key model parameters, $θ_E$ (the Einstein Radius) and $γ_{lens}$ (the projected mass density profile slope), with consistent mass-light ellipticity correlations in test and training data, we recover $θ_E$ with less than 1% bias per lens, 6.5% precision per lens and $γ_{lens}$ with less than 3% bias per lens, 8% precision per lens. We find that lens light subtraction prior to modeling is only useful when applied to data sampled from the training prior. If emulated deconvolution is applied to the data prior to modeling, precision improves across all parameters by a factor of 2. Finally, we combine the inferred lens mass models using Bayesian Hierarchical Inference to recover the global properties of the lens sample with less than 1% bias.

Venkatraman, Padmavathi [Illinois U., Urbana; KIPA↗

RENEW v3.2 user's manual, maintenance estimation simulation for Space Station Freedom Program

RENEW is a maintenance event estimation simulation program developed in support of the Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP). This simulation uses reliability and maintainability (R&M) and logistics data to estimate both average and time dependent maintenance demands. The simulation uses Monte Carlo techniques to generate failure and repair times as a function of the R&M and logistics parameters. The estimates are generated for a single type of orbital replacement unit (ORU). The simulation has been in use by the SSFP Work Package 4 prime contractor, Rocketdyne, since January 1991. The RENEW simulation gives closer estimates of performance since it uses a time dependent approach and depicts more factors affecting ORU failure and repair than steady state average calculations. RENEW gives both average and time dependent demand values. Graphs of failures over the mission period and yearly failure occurrences are generated. The averages demand rate for the ORU over the mission period is also calculated. While RENEW displays the results in graphs, the results are also available in a data file for further use by spreadsheets or other programs. The process of using RENEW starts with keyboard entry of the R&M and operational data. Once entered, the data may be saved in a data file for later retrieval. The parameters may be viewed and changed after entry using RENEW. The simulation program runs the number of Monte Carlo simulations requested by the operator. Plots and tables of the results can be viewed on the screen or sent to a printer. The results of the simulation are saved along with the input data. Help screens are provided with each menu and data entry screen.

Bream, Bruce L.↗

A Historical Overview of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office’s Laboratory Optical Measurements

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used laboratory measurements to help bring ground-based measurements together with models to ascertain Earth-orbiting target parameters of interest to support various orbital debris models. In 2005, the Optical Measurement Center (OMC) was established to simulate space-based illumination conditions using equipment and techniques that recreate telescopic observations, particularly source-target-sensor orientations. The intent was to recreate light curves using known aspect angles of known targets and phase angles (angle is defined by the vertex between illumination source-object-detector) to complement telescopic observations that could be used to update the current optical size estimation model (OSEM) – a model that converts object brightness into size for orbital debris models. To support the above goals, the laboratory has undergone several equipment upgrades to increase capabilities over almost 20 years of operation. The primary instrumentation acquires reflectance measurements and includes a solar-like light source, CCD camera with astrometric filters, and robotic arm. A rotary arm was added approximately five years after full operation to allow acquisition through a full 360° range of phase angles. Another part of the OMC instrumentation is a field spectrometer, predominately used for field operations to acquire pre- and post-flight spacecraft material spectral measurements. Additionally, reflectance spectroscopy of various materials is also of interest resulting from hypervelocity impact tests, pristine spacecraft materials, or samples of materials that are used in spacecraft design. These measurements are stored in NASA’s Spectral Material Database, a resource that is still being populated today. The study of spectral measurements also enabled the development of spectral unmixing routines to support the identification of spacecraft materials from spectral data gathered by ground based telescopes. Preliminary OMC investigations focused on feasibility studies to acquire 360° rotation light curves of simple shapes at a single-phase angle and extended to measurements of representative fragments from ground-based explosion tests. To correlate the light curves with ground-based optical measurements, a focused study on high area to mass materials was conducted in support of a newly identified population (at the time) in geosynchronous orbit (GEO) consisting of multi-layered insulation. To further characterize orbital debris, a larger selection of materials was analyzed using laboratory photometric measurements that included representative targets from pristine spacecraft materials and ground-based impact tests. Around 2012, an initiative was requested to understand the feasibility of active debris removal (ADR) of larger targets using grappling methods for spent rocket bodies. Using a priori information on selected targets, scaled-down versions of rocket bodies were generated thanks to improvements in 3D printing technology and machining. These targets were studied in the OMC to understand rotation characteristics. These were compared with telescopic data to determine if the tumble and rotation angles would allow ADR. In 2013, the OMC focused on combining spectral measurements with photometric data to characterize GEO orbital debris. Several years later, NASA acquired a Titan III Transtage test article from “The Boneyard” with a high-resemblance to on-orbit Titan III Transtage rocket bodies, allowing physical access to a representative rocket body that suffered fragmentations in GEO. This prompted the creation of 3D models using lidar technology and spectral measurements of the materials. Focused research also transitioned to specific materials (i.e., solar cells) when telescopic surveys requested characterization of specific GEO targets. In the different research products presented, the focus has been to understand the various parameters that influence optical size estimation, including albedo, phase functions, and brightness variations. Work in this area continues with newer sources of data, including DebriSat, a high-fidelity 56-kg spacecraft replica representative of a modern low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite subjected to a laboratory hypervelocity impact test to understand fragmentation events and to support updates to satellite breakup models and size estimation models. Utilizing the vast population of fragments from DebriSat and prior laboratory impact experiments, the ODPO has focused on acquiring bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) data to characterize targets in the laboratory, thus removing aspect angle dependencies. Additionally, the DebriSat project has provided improved processes for measuring size via image acquisition, such that a true fragment size can be directly compared to the derived size using the OSEM. The team continues to assess BRDFs and use spectral measurement data to investigate the parameters used in the OSEM, specifically magnitudes, albedo, and phase functions.

Heather Cowardin↗

Derivation of Improved Surface and TOA Broadband Fluxes Using CERES-derived Narrowband-to-Broadband Coefficients

Satellites can provide global coverage of a number of climatically important radiative parameters, including broadband (BB) shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface. These parameters can be estimated from narrowband (NB) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data, but their accuracy is highly dependent on the validity of the narrowband-to-broadband (NB-BB) conversion formulas that are used to convert the NB fluxes to broadband values. The formula coefficients have historically been derived by regressing matched polarorbiting satellite BB fluxes or radiances with their NB counterparts from GOES (e.g., Minnis et al., 1984). More recently, the coefficients have been based on matched Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and GOES-6 data (Minnis and Smith, 1998). The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy Budget (CERES see Wielicki et al. 1998)) project has recently developed much improved Angular Distribution Models (ADM; Loeb et al., 2003) and has higher resolution data compared to ERBE. A limited set of coefficients was also derived from matched GOES-8 and CERES data taken on Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite (Chakrapani et al., 2003; Doelling et al., 2003). The NB-BB coefficients derived from CERES and the GOES suite should yield more accurate BB fluxes than from ERBE, but are limited spatially and seasonally. With CERES data taken from Terra and Aqua, it is now possible to derive more reliable NB-BB coefficients for any given area. Better TOA fluxes should translate to improved surface radiation fluxes derived using various algorithms. As part of an ongoing effort to provide accurate BB flux estimates for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program, this paper documents the derivation of new NB-BB coefficients for the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) domain and for the Darwin region of the Tropical Western Pacific (DTWP) domain.

Khaiyer, Mandana M.↗

Input design for identification of aircraft stability and control derivatives

An approach for designing inputs to identify stability and control derivatives from flight test data is presented. This approach is based on finding inputs which provide the maximum possible accuracy of derivative estimates. Two techniques of input specification are implemented for this objective - a time domain technique and a frequency domain technique. The time domain technique gives the control input time history and can be used for any allowable duration of test maneuver, including those where data lengths can only be of short duration. The frequency domain technique specifies the input frequency spectrum, and is best applied for tests where extended data lengths, much longer than the time constants of the modes of interest, are possible. These technqiues are used to design inputs to identify parameters in longitudinal and lateral linear models of conventional aircraft. The constraints of aircraft response limits, such as on structural loads, are realized indirectly through a total energy constraint on the input. Tests with simulated data and theoretical predictions show that the new approaches give input signals which can provide more accurate parameter estimates than can conventional inputs of the same total energy. Results obtained indicate that the approach has been brought to the point where it should be used on flight tests for further evaluation.

Gupta, N. K.↗

Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture from CERES Observations

A method is developed to retrieve surface ground temperature (T(sub g)) and atmospheric moisture using clear sky fluxes (CSF) from CERES-TRMM observations. In general, the clear sky outgoing longwave radiation (CLR) is sensitive to upper level moisture (q(sub l)) over wet regions and (T(sub g)) over dry regions The clear sky window flux from 800 to 1200/cm (RadWn) is sensitive to low level moisture (q(sub t)) and T(sub g). Combining these two measurements (CLR and RadWn), Tg and q(sub h) can be estimated over land, while q(sub h) and q(sub l) can be estimated over the oceans. The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic CSF data from two different global 4-dimensional data assimilation products. Simple linear regression is used to relate discrepancies in CSF to discrepancies in T(sub g), q(sub h) and q(sub l). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters that can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of CSF. For illustration, we analyze the discrepancies in the CSF between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) and a recent operational version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction data assimilation system. In particular, our analysis of synthetic total and window region SCF differences (computed from two different assimilated data sets) shows that simple linear regression employing Delta(T(sub g)) and broad layer Delta(q(sub l) from .500 hPa to surface and Delta(q(sub h)) from 200 to .300 hPa provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations. typically explaining more than 90% of the 6-hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters. Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for Delta(T(sub g)) to about 20% for Delta(q(sub l)). Our initial application of the methodology employed an early CERES-TRMM data set (CLR and Radwn) to assess the quality of the GEOS2 data. The results showed that over the tropical and subtropical oceans GEOS2 is, in general, too wet in the upper troposphere (mean bias of 0.99 mm) and too dry in the lower troposphere (mean bias of -4.7 min). We note that these errors, as well as a cold bias in the T(sub g). have largely been corrected in the current version of GEOS-2 with the introduction of a land surface model, a moist turbulence scheme and the assimilation of SSM/I total precipitable water.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

SAR terrain classifier and mapper of biophysical attributes

In preparation for the launch of SIR-C/X-SAR and design studies for future orbital SAR, a program has made considerable progress in the development of an SAR terrain classifier and algorithms for quantification of biophysical attributes. The goal of this program is to produce a generalized software package for terrain classification and estimation of biophysical attributes and to make this package available to the larger scientific community. The basic elements of the SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) terrain classifier are outlined. An SAR image is calibrated with respect to known system and processor gains and external targets (if available). A Level 1 classifier operates on the data to differentiate: urban features, surfaces and tall and short vegetation. Level 2 classifiers further subdivide these classes on the basis of structure. Finally, biophysical and geophysical inversions are applied to each class to estimate attributes of interest. The process used to develop the classifiers and inversions is shown. Radar scattering models developed from theory and from empirical data obtained by truck-mounted polarimeters and the JPL AirSAR are validated. The validated models are used in sensitivity studies to understand the roles of various scattering sources (i.e., surface trunk, branches, etc.) in determining net backscatter. Model simulations of sigma (sup o) as functions of the wave parameters (lambda, polarization and angle of incidence) and the geophysical and biophysical attributes are used to develop robust classifiers. The classifiers are validated using available AirSAR data sets. Specific estimators are developed for each class on the basis of the scattering models and empirical data sets. The candidate algorithms are tested with the AirSAR data sets. The attributes of interest include: total above ground biomass, woody biomass, soil moisture and soil roughness.

Ulaby, Fawwaz T.↗

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics↗

Autonomous Modal Identification of the Space Shuttle Tail Rudder

Autonomous modal identification automates the calculation of natural vibration frequencies, damping, and mode shapes of a structure from experimental data. This technology complements damage detection techniques that use continuous or periodic monitoring of vibration characteristics. The approach shown in the paper incorporates the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) as a data analysis engine and an autonomous supervisor to condense multiple estimates of modal parameters using ERA's Consistent-Mode Indicator and correlation of mode shapes. The procedure was applied to free-decay responses of a Space Shuttle tail rudder and successfully identified the seven modes of the structure below 250 Hz. The final modal parameters are a condensed set of results for 87 individual ERA cases requiring approximately five minutes of CPU time on a DEC Alpha computer.

Pappa, Richard S.↗

LAMOST Time-Domain survey: first results of four K2 plates

From Oct. 2019 to Apr. 2020, LAMOST performed a time-domain (TD) spectroscopic survey of four K2 plates with both low- and medium-resolution observations. The low-resolution spectroscopic survey acquired 282 exposures ( ≈ 46.6 h) over 25 nights, yielding a total of about 767 000 spectra, and the medium-resolution survey took 177 exposures ( ≈ 49.1 h) over 27 nights, collecting about 478 000 spectra. More than 70%/50% of low-resolution/medium-resolution spectra have signal-to-noise ratio higher than 10. We determine stellar parameters (e.g., T eff , log g, [Fe/H]) and radial velocity (RV) with different methods, including LASP, DD-Payne and SLAM. In general, these parameter estimations from different methods show good agreement, and the stellar parameter values are consistent with those of APOGEE. We use the Gaia DR2 RV values to calculate a median RV zero point (RVZP) for each spectrograph exposure by exposure, and the RVZP-corrected RVs agree well with the APOGEE data. The stellar evolutionary and spectroscopic masses are estimated based on the stellar parameters, multi-band magnitudes, distances and extinction values. Finally, we construct a binary catalog including about 2700 candidates by analyzing their light curves, fitting the RV data, calculating the binarity parameters from medium-resolution spectra and cross-matching the spatially resolved binary catalog from Gaia EDR3. In conclusion, the LAMOST TD survey is expected to represent a breakthrough in various scientific topics, such as binary systems, stellar activity, stellar pulsation, etc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. The independent variables cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also recorded or computed post-operations. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajec- tory parameters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowl- edge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace. In particular, a model for TOD location that is linear in the independent variables would enable decision support tool human-machine interfaces for which a kinetic approach would be computationally too slow.

trajectory prediction↗

Multi-area parameter error identification for large power systems

Power grid model parameters may contain errors due to various reasons. Detecting and correcting parameter errors typically requires significant computational effort due to the size and complexity of the parameter database. While the normalized Lagrange multiplier (NLM) method can effectively detect, identify and correct parameter errors, its computational burden could rapidly grow with increasing system size. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a multi-area parameter error identification method. Each area has its own outlier detection tool for detecting the incorrect parameters and measurements within the area. On the other hand, due to the reduced redundancy at area boundaries, parameter errors on branches incident to boundary buses may not be detected. Such errors are subsequently detected by a coordination level estimator completing the system-wide parameter detection procedure. In conclusion, performance of the developed method is demonstrated using the IEEE 118-bus and 2000-bus Texas synthetic systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation

Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fatigue behavior and modeling for additive manufactured 304L stainless steel: The effect of surface roughness

The fatigue strength of additively manufactured metallic parts in their as-built surface condition is mainly dominated by the surface roughness. Post-processing is often inevitable to reduce surface roughness effects even though post-processing diminishes the main advantage of additive manufacturing, which is net-shaped direct-to-service production. This work investigates the underlying mechanisms responsible for fatigue failure of additively manufactured 304L stainless steel parts in as-built and machined/polished surface conditions. Both strain- and force-controlled, fully reversed fatigue tests were conducted to gain a comprehensive understanding of surface roughness effects on fatigue behavior. The sensitivity to surface roughness is shown to be dependent on the control mode, with stress-based fatigue tests showing greater sensitivity than strain-based fatigue tests. Moreover, the fatigue life estimation for as-built specimens was performed based on surface roughness parameters as well as the fatigue properties of the specimens in machined/polished surface condition of the material without using any fatigue data of specimens in as-built surface condition. Accordingly, the effect of surface roughness on the fatigue behavior could be estimated reasonably well in both strain-life and stress-life approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Wind field model-based estimation of Seasat scatterometer winds

A model-based approach to estimating near-surface wind fields over the ocean from Seasat scatterometer (SASS) measurements is presented. The approach is a direct assimilation technique in which wind field model parameters are estimated directly from the scatterometer measurements of the radar backscatter of the ocean's surface using maximum likelihood principles. The wind field estimate is then computed from the estimated model parameters. The wind field model used in this approach is based on geostrophic approximation and on simplistic assumptions about the wind field vorticity and divergence but includes ageostrophic winds. Nine days of SASS data were processed to obtain unique wind estimates. Comparisons in performance to the traditional two-step (point-wise wind retrieval followed by ambiguity removal) wind estimate method and the model-based method are provided using both simulated radar backscatter measurements and actual SASS measurements. In the latter case the results are compared to wind fields determined using subjective ambiguity removal. While the traditional approach results in missing measurements and reduced effective swath width due to fore/aft beam cell coregistration problems, the model-based approach uses all available measurements to increase the effective swath width and to reduce data gaps. The results reveal that the model-based wind estimates have accuracy comparable to traditionally estimated winds with less 'noise' in the directional estimates, particularly at low wind speeds.

Long, David G.↗

The second-moment climatology of the GATE rain rate data

The first part of this paper presents the description of the GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) 1 rain-rate data and its two-dimensional spectral and correlation characteristics, which has made it possible to accomplish the following: to show the concentration of a significant power along the frequency axis in the spatiotemporal spectra; to detect a diurnal cycle (which has a range of variation of about 3.4-5.4 mm/n) as one of the sources of bias in the rain statistics of satellite data; to study the distinction between the north-south and east-west transport of spatial rain-rate field and character of its anisotropy; to evaluate the scales of the distinction between second-moment estimates associated with ground and satellite samples; and to determine the appropriate spatial and temporal scales of simple linear stochastic models fitted to averaged rain-rate fields. The second part of this paper is devoted to an analysis of the diffusion of the rain rate by establishing a relationship between the parameters of the multivariate autoregressive model and the coefficients of a diffusion equation. This analysis led to the use of rain data to estimate the rain advection velocity as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding field. The results obtained can be used for comparison with corresponding estimates of other sources of data (satellite, Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA, COARE) or simulated by physical models), for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problems of some of the hydrodynamic equations, and in some other areas of rain data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗