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At least 775 records · Page 43

Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

Jeong, Hye-In↗

Analysis and Results from a Flush Airdata Sensing System in Close Proximity to Firing Rocket Nozzles

This paper presents information regarding the nosecap Flush Airdata Sensing (FADS) system on Orion’s Pad Abort 1 (PA-1) vehicle. The purpose of the nosecap FADS system was to test whether or not useful data could be obtained from a FADS system if it was placed in close proximity to firing rocket nozzles like the Attitude Control Motor (ACM) nozzles on the PA-1 Launch Abort System. The nosecap FADS system used pressure measurements from a series of pressure ports which were arranged in a cruciform pattern and flush with the surface of the vehicle to estimate values of angle of attack, angle of sideslip, Mach number, impact pressure, and freestream static pressure. This paper will present the algorithms employed by the FADS system along with the development of the calibration datasets and a comparison of the final results to the Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) data for PA-1. Also presented in this paper is a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) study to explore the impact of the ACM on the nosecap FADS system. The comparison of the nosecap FADS system results to the BET and the CFD study showed that more investigation is needed to quantify the impact of the firing rocket motors on the FADS system.

Flush Air Data Sensing System↗

Analysis and Results from a Flush Airdata Sensing (FADS) System in Close Proximity to Firing Rocket Nozzles

This presentation presents information regarding the nose-cap flush airdata sensing (FADS) system on Orion's Pad Abort 1 (PA-1) vehicle. The purpose of the nose-cap FADS system was to test whether or not useful data could be obtained from a FADS system if it was placed in close proximity to firing rockets nozzles like the attitude control motor (ACM) nozzles on the PA-1 launch abort system (LAS). The nose-cap FADS systems use pressure measurements from a series of pressure ports which are arranged in a cruciform pattern and flush with the surface of the vehicle to estimate values of angle of attack, angle of side-slip, Mach number, impact pressure and free-stream static pressure.

Pad Abort 1↗

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the prediction skill of the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): the UKMO GloSea4, the NCEP CFSv2, and the NASA GEOS-5. Long-term reforecasts made with the EPSs are used to evaluate representations of the AO, and to examine skill scores for the deterministic and probabilistic forecast of the AO index. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper-level wind, and precipitation according to the AO phase. Results demonstrate that all EPSs have better prediction skill than the persistence prediction for lead times up to 3-month, suggesting a great potential for skillful prediction of the AO and the associated climate anomalies in seasonal time scale. It is also found that the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill of the AO in the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that in the earlier period (1983-1996).

Coupled Models↗

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).

Arctic Oscillation↗

Predicting Clear-Sky Reflectance Over Snow/Ice in Polar Regions

Satellite remote sensing of clouds requires an accurate estimate of the clear-sky radiances for a given scene to detect clouds and aerosols and to retrieve their microphysical properties. Knowing the spatial and angular variability of clear-sky albedo is essential for predicting clear-sky radiance at solar wavelengths. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Project uses the nearinfrared (NIR; 1.24, 1.6 or 2.13 micrometers), visible (VIS; 0.63 micrometers) and vegetation (VEG; 0.86 micrometers) channels available on the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to help identify clouds and retrieve their properties in both snow-free and snow-covered conditions. Thus, it is critical to have reliable distributions of clear-sky albedo for all of these channels. In CERES Edition 4 (Ed4), the 1.24-micrometer channel is used to retrieve cloud optical depth over snow/ice-covered surfaces. Thus, it is especially critical to accurately predict the 1.24-micrometer clear-sky albedo alpha and reflectance rho for a given location and time. Snow albedo and reflectance patterns are very complex due to surface texture, particle shapes and sizes, melt water, and vegetation protrusions from the snow surface. To minimize those effects, this study focuses on the permanent snow cover of Antarctica where vegetation is absent and melt water is minimal. Clear-sky albedos are determined as a function of solar zenith angle (SZA) from observations over all scenes determined to be cloud-free to produce a normalized directional albedo model (DRM). The DRM is used to develop alpha(SZA=0 degrees) on 10 foot grid for each season. These values provide the basis for predicting r at any location and set of viewing & illumination conditions. This paper examines the accuracy of this approach for two theoretical snow surface reflectance models.

Chen, Yan↗

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb↗

Developing Materials and Coating Technologies for Mitigation of Lunar Dust Adhesion and Abrasion

In order to support long duration missions on the Moon’s surface, materials resistant to the harsh lunar environment are critically needed. Lunar dust poses a major threat to the durability of components and vehicles due to its fine, jagged morphology and highly abrasive nature, which enables the particles to adhere and embed into surfaces of components and devices potentially leading to premature failure. Consequently, significant effort within NASA aims to develop novel materials and coating technologies to limit lunar dust adhesion and abrasion by exploring a variety of production routes and examining properties of candidate material systems, including ceramic, metallic and polymeric. Manufacturing methods investigated include traditional powder processing, additive manufacturing and surface modification via laser ablation patterning of bulk materials and coatings. An overview of ongoing NASA materials and coating research and development to enable lunar exploration will be presented.

Materials↗

Growth and characterization of large YBa2Cu3O(7-x) single crystals

Centimeter-sized crystal plates of YBa2Cu3O(7-x) have been obtained using a bulk composition and method described by Schneemeyer at al. (1987) modified for growth in a pure oxygen atmosphere. A porous MgO crucible and long soak time promote large crystals. Mg was not detectable in the crystals. Electron microbeam analysis using a 60 A monochromator crystal for the oxygen determination gave the composition Y(1.05)Ba(2.02)Cu(2.94)O(6.52 + or - 0.06). As-grown crystals from the melt surface exhibit a fairly sharp Tc with zero resistance at 80 K, and show complex twinning and crack patterns. Optical micrographs of a lightly polished surface normal to the c-axis of a 3-mm crystal delineate twinning and fine scale microcracking; this crystal surface now has a zero resistance at 68 K. Microhardness measurements and microfracture observations indicate intrinsic properties that may inhibit or impede large scale manufacture of electronic ceramics.

Keester, Kenneth L.↗

Analysis of cylindrical wrap-around and doubly conformal patch antennas by way of the finite element-artificial absorber method

The goal of this project was to develop analysis codes for computing the scattering and radiation of antennas on cylindrically and doubly conformal platforms. The finite element-boundary integral (FE-BI) method has been shown to accurately model the scattering and radiation of cavity-backed patch antennas. Unfortunately extension of this rigorous technique to coated or doubly curved platforms is cumbersome and inefficient. An alternative approximate approach is to employ an absorbing boundary condition (ABC) for terminating the finite element mesh thus avoiding use of a Green's function. A FE-ABC method is used to calculate the radar cross section (RCS) and radiation pattern of a cavity-backed patch antenna which is recessed within a metallic surface. It is shown that this approach is accurate for RCS and antenna pattern calculations with an ABC surface displaced as little as 0.3 lambda from the cavity aperture. These patch antennas may have a dielectric overlay which may also be modeled with this technique.

Volakis, J. L.↗

Advances in Measurement of Skin Friction in Airflow

The surface interferometric skin-friction (SISF) measurement system is an instrument for determining the distribution of surface shear stress (skin friction) on a wind-tunnel model. The SISF system utilizes the established oil-film interference method, along with advanced image-data-processing techniques and mathematical models that express the relationship between interferograms and skin friction, to determine the distribution of skin friction over an observed region of the surface of a model during a single wind-tunnel test. In the oil-film interference method, a wind-tunnel model is coated with a thin film of oil of known viscosity and is illuminated with quasi-monochromatic, collimated light, typically from a mercury lamp. The light reflected from the outer surface of the oil film interferes with the light reflected from the oil-covered surface of the model. In the present version of the oil-film interference method, a camera captures an image of the illuminated model and the image in the camera is modulated by the interference pattern. The interference pattern depends on the oil-thickness distribution on the observed surface, and this distribution can be extracted through analysis of the image acquired by the camera. The oil-film technique is augmented by a tracer technique for observing the streamline pattern. To make the streamlines visible, small dots of fluorescentchalk/oil mixture are placed on the model just before a test. During the test, the chalk particles are embedded in the oil flow and produce chalk streaks that mark the streamlines. The instantaneous rate of thinning of the oil film at a given position on the surface of the model can be expressed as a function of the instantaneous thickness, the skin-friction distribution on the surface, and the streamline pattern on the surface; the functional relationship is expressed by a mathematical model that is nonlinear in the oil-film thickness and is known simply as the thin-oil-film equation. From the image data acquired as described, the time-dependent oil-thickness distribution and streamline pattern are extracted and by inversion of the thin-oil-film equation it is then possible to determine the skin-friction distribution. In addition to a quasi-monochromatic light source, the SISF system includes a beam splitter and two video cameras equipped with filters for observing the same area on a model in different wavelength ranges, plus a frame grabber and a computer for digitizing the video images and processing the image data. One video camera acquires the interference pattern in a narrow wavelength range of the quasi-monochromatic source. The other video camera acquires the streamline image of fluorescence from the chalk in a nearby but wider wavelength range. The interference- pattern and fluorescence images are digitized, and the resulting data are processed by an algorithm that inverts the thin-oil-film equation to find the skin-friction distribution.

Brown, James L.↗

Lagrangian observations of surface circulation at the Emperor Seamount chain

In a Kuroshio tracking experiment initiated in February 1977, two satellite-reporting buoys, drogued to 100-m depth, were released southeast of Kuyshu Island, Japan. These drifters crossed the Shatskiy Rise in the Kuroshio extension during May and October and then traversed the Emperor Seamount Chain. Although they reached the chain 117 days apart, their movements near the seamounts display remarkably similar patterns, demonstrating upstream meanders in the surface flow; cyclonic eddy activity immediately west of the chain; passage through the same gap associated with the Jingu and Nintoku seamounts; and a wavelike pattern present over the Hess Rise east of the chain. One drifter exhibited cyclonic eddy motion east of the chain in the lee of the Kinmei Seamount.

Vastano, A. C.↗

A study of the Merritt Island, Florida sea breeze flow regimes and their effect on surface heat and moisture fluxes

Data collected during the Convective and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment were analyzed as part of an investigation of the sea breeze in the vicinity of Merritt Island, Florida. Analysis of near-surface divergence fields shows that the classical 24-hour oscillation in divergence over the island due to the direct sea breeze circulation is frequently disrupted and exhibits two distinct modes: the classical sea breeze pattern and deviations from that pattern. A comparison of clear day surface energy fluxes with fluxes on other days indicates that changes in magnitudes were dominated by the presence or absence of clouds. Non-classical sea breeze days tended to lose more available energy in the morning than classical sea breeze days due to earlier development of small cumulus over the island. A composite storm of surface winds, surface energy fluxes, rainfall, and satellite visible data was constructed. A spectral transmittance over the visible wavelengths for the cloud cover resulting from the composite storm was calculated. It is shown that pre-storm transmittances of 0.8 fall to values near 0.1 as the downdraft moves directly over the site. It is also found that under post-composite storm conditions of continuous clear sky days, 3.5 days are required to evaporate back into the atmosphere the latent heat energy lost to the surface by rainfall.

Rubes, M. T.↗

Experimental investigation of the cornering characteristics of 18 by 5.5, type 7, aircraft tires with different tread patterns

The characteristics, which include the cornering-force and drag-force friction coefficients and self-alining torque, were obtained on dry, damp, and flooded runway surfaces over a range of yaw angles from 0 deg to 12 deg and at ground speeds from approximately 5 to 90 knots. The results indicate that a tread pattern with pinholes in the ribs reduces the tire cornering capability at high yaw angles on a damp surface but improves cornering on a dry surface. A tread pattern which has transverse grooves across the entire width of the tread improves the tire cornering performance slightly at high speeds on the flooded runway surface. The cornering capability of all the tires is degraded at high ground speeds by thin film lubrication and/or tire hydroplaning effects. Alterations to the conventional tread pattern provide only marginal improvements in the tire cornering capability which suggests that runway surface treatments may be a more effective way of improving aircraft ground performance during wet operations.

Dreher, R. C.↗

Projected-Fringe, Phase-Stepping Profilometer

Projected-fringe, phase-stepping profilometer is system of optical, electronic, optoelectronic, and electro-optical equipment measuring surface profiles of objects. Projects optical interference pattern onto object and steps phase of pattern to extract phases of interfering beams where they intersect object. Data obtained within seconds. Noncontact, full-field surface profilometer has applications, including inspection of machined and ceramic parts, printed circuit boards, and optical components. Rugged and compact, measures surfaces with variety of sizes and finishes.

Mercer, Carolyn↗

Experimental Investigation of Pool Boiling Heat Transfer Enhancement in Microgravity in the Presence of Electric Fields

In boiling high heat fluxes are possible driven by relatively small temperature differences, which make its use increasingly attractive in aerospace applications. The objective of the research is to develop ways to overcome specific problems associated with boiling in the low gravity environment by substituting the buoyancy force with the electric force to enhance bubble removal from the heated surface. Previous studies indicate that in terrestrial applications nucleate boiling heat transfer can be increased by a factor of 50, as compared to values obtained for the same system without electric fields. The goal of our research is to experimentally explore the mechanisms responsible for EHD heat transfer enhancement in boiling in low gravity conditions, by visualizing the temperature distributions in the vicinity of the heated surface and around the bubble during boiling using real-time holographic interferometry (HI) combined with high-speed cinematography. In the first phase of the project the influence of the electric field on a single bubble is investigated. Pool boiling is simulated by injecting a single bubble through a nozzle into the subcooled liquid or into the thermal boundary layer developed along the flat heater surface. Since the exact location of bubble formation is known, the optical equipment can be aligned and focused accurately, which is an essential requirement for precision measurements of bubble shape, size and deformation, as well as the visualization of temperature fields by HI. The size of the bubble and the frequency of bubble departure can be controlled by suitable selection of nozzle diameter and mass flow rate of vapor. In this approach effects due to the presence of the electric field can be separated from effects caused by the temperature gradients in the thermal boundary layer. The influence of the thermal boundary layer can be investigated after activating the heater at a later stage of the research. For the visualization experiments a test cell was developed. All four vertical walls of the test cell are transparent, and they allow transillumination with laser light for visualization experiments by HI. The bottom electrode is a copper cylinder, which is electrically grounded. The copper block is heated with a resistive heater and it is equipped with 6 thermocouples that provide reference temperatures for the measurements with HI. The top electrode is a mesh electrode. Bubbles are injected with a syringe into the test cell through the bottom electrode. The working fluids presently used in the interferometric visualization experiments, water and PF 5052, satisfy requirements regarding thermophysical, optical and electrical properties. A 30kV power supply equipped with a voltmeter allows to apply the electric field to the electrodes during the experiments. The magnitude of the applied voltage can be adjusted either manually or through the LabVIEW data acquisition and control system connected to a PC. Temperatures of the heated block are recorded using type-T thermocouples, whose output is read by a data acquisition system. Images of the bubbles are recorded with 35mm photographic and 16mm high-speed cameras, scanned and analyzed using various software packages. Visualized temperature fields HI allows the visualization of temperature fields in the vicinity of bubbles during boiling in the form of fringes. Typical visualized temperature distributions around the air bubbles injected into the thermal boundary layer in PF5052 are shown. The temperature of the heated surface is 35 C. The temperature difference for a pair of fringes is approximately 0.05 C. The heat flux applied to the bottom surface is moderate, and the fringe patterns are regular. In the image a bubble penetrating the thermal boundary layer is visible. Because of the axial symmetry of the problem, simplified reconstruction techniques can be applied to recover the temperature field. The thermal plume developing above the heated surface for more intensive heating is shown. The temperature distribution in the liquid is clearly 3D, and tomographic techniques have to be applied to recover the temperature distribution in such a physical situation. A sequence of interferometric images showing the temperature distribution around the rising bubble, recorded with a high-speed camera is shown. Again, the temperature distribution is 3D, and a more complex approach to the evaluation, the tomographic reconstruction has to be taken. Measurement of the temperature distribution from the fringe pattern temperature distributions that yield important information regarding heat transfer are determined. Two algorithms that allow the quantitative evaluation of interferometric fringe patterns and the reconstruction of temperature fields during boiling have been developed at the Heat Transfer Laboratory of the Johns Hopkins University. In the first algorithm the bubble is assumed to be axially symmetrical, which significantly reduces the computational effort for quantifying the temperature distribution around the bubble. For this purpose the thermal boundary layer around the bubble is divided into equidistant concentric shells, and the refractive index is assumed to be constant in each of the shells. Since large temperature gradients are expected in the vicinity of the bubble during boiling, the deflection of the light beam cannot be neglected in boiling experiments. Since the exit angle of the light beam is known, this allows to account for the deflections and phase shifts outside the boundary layer (in the bulk fluid and in the windows of the test cell). Three dimensional temperature distributions in the vicinity of the bubble are reconstructed using tomographic techniques. In tomography, the measurement volume is sliced into 2D planes. In the present study these planes are parallel to the heated surface. The objective is to determine the values of the field parameter of interest in form of the field function in these 2D planes. The field parameter is the change of the refractive index of the liquid in the measurement volume caused by temperature changes. By superimposing data for many 2D planes recorded at the same time instant, the 3D temperature distribution in the measurement volume is recovered.

Herman, Cila↗

GTD analysis of airborne antennas radiating in the presence of lossy dielectric layers

The patterns of monopole or aperture antennas mounted on a perfectly conducting convex surface radiating in the presence of a dielectric or metal plate are computed. The geometrical theory of diffraction is used to analyze the radiating system and extended here to include diffraction by flat dielectric slabs. Modified edge diffraction coefficients valid for wedges whose walls are lossy or lossless thin dielectric or perfectly conducting plates are developed. The width of the dielectric plates cannot exceed a quarter of a wavelength in free space, and the interior angle of the wedge is assumed to be close to 0 deg or 180 deg. Systematic methods for computing the individual components of the total high frequency field are discussed. The accuracy of the solutions is demonstrated by comparisons with measured results, where a 2 lambda by 4 lambda prolate spheroid is used as the convex surface. A jump or kink appears in the calculated pattern when higher order terms that are important are not included in the final solution. The most immediate application of the results presented here is in the modelling of structures such as aircraft which are composed of nonmetallic parts that play a significant role in the pattern.

Rojas-Teran, R. G.↗

The Martian sedimentary record

The differences between the surface geology of Mars and earth are discussed. Sedimentary processes and fluvial systems on Mars are examined. Surface mapping reveals the more recent depostional patterns. In future missions, radar sounding, active seismic systems, and on site deep drilling may be required to fully document the depositional history. For the present, identification of sedimentary layers must rest on localities of tectonic or erosional windows, detection of buried surfaces by indirect methods, and deposition or off lap patterns of distribution.

Dehon, R. A.↗