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DOE OSTI2019

Future Aviation Biofuel Analysis Using the Biomass Scenario Model

This presentation summarizes the findings from two articles that use the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) to explore potential future aviation biofuels scenarios. Newes et al. (2017) concluded that construction/build out capabilities and development of the feedstock market are key bottlenecks in the initial years. Displacement of jet fuel by 30% with biofuels by 2030 is possible, but several factors related to policy design-in the absence of high oil prices or policy uncertainty-contribute to the timing and magnitude of aviation biofuels production. First, incentives targeted toward jet fuel production, such as financial incentives (e.g., a producer tax credit or a CO2 tax) could be sufficient to reach six billion gallons. Second, R&D investment in pre-commercial technologies is needed to reduce the cost of production through learning-by-doing. Third, reduction of investment risk through loan guarantees and offtake agreements may allow production to ramp up more quickly through accelerating industry learning. Lewis et al. (2018) showed that both BSM and the Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool suggest that 200 million to 1 billion gallons per year of alternative jet fuel production are possible by 2030, given multiple incentives and a favorable investment climate. However, different capital costs and technology maturation rates in the two models will affect deployment of different fuel production technologies and therefore the feedstocks needed. Further collaboration on these modeling approaches would reduce methodological blind spots while providing insights into future industry trajectories.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Visualization for Renewable Energy Potential

In this paper, we present the reV (Renewable Energy Potential) Dashboard, an interactive browser-based tool for uncertainty visualization and data exploration built using customized plotly dash components. With continuing development and utilization of computational models to study the power sector there is an increasing need for data-driven visualization tools which allow scientists, researchers, and engineers to interact with their data in real-time. Our principle motivation for developing this interactive uncertainty visualization was to provide domain scientists and modelers a platform which allows them to better understand and communicate scientific findings stemming from intricate information encoded in their data that is otherwise difficult to capture by conventional analysis. The development of customized dashboard components using the React programming paradigm, combined with fully pre-processed data, allows for users to select a variety of data options to update and manipulate the visualization in a straightforward computationally efficient manner.

dashboard↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Energy Analytics Dashboard (TEAD)

The investment decisions within the nation’s transportation sector have traditionally been prioritized and measured against safety and travel efficiency goals. Increasingly, federal, state, and local policies are requiring consideration of energy use and emissions in the design of our transportation infrastructure. Yet the processes, analytics, and knowledge to include these new metrics into transportation decisions are lacking. Although targeted studies and before and after analysis are performed from time to time, no comprehensive real-time monitoring systems provide energy and emissions to the same level as congestion and safety. To address this gap, the Center for Advanced Transportation Technology (CATT Lab) and the Maryland Transportation Institute (MTI) at the University of Maryland (UMD), in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), have developed a Transportation Energy Analytics Dashboard, or TEAD, to raise awareness of the energy and emission impacts to the same level of observability as that of safety and mobility concerns. The overall goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate an online tool to monitor transportation energy use and emissions in real-time and to archive this data for retrospective analysis. By combining surface transportation energy and emissions evaluation capability with more traditional safety, mobility and reliability system evaluation, our goal is for TEAD to create a dynamic new paradigm in transportation systems management and performance analyses, for both real-time traffic operations, and longer-term planning for project and program investment decision-making.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Grid Communications: Digital Assurance and Supply Chain Challenges and Emerging Regulation Session Two

The TADA Grid Communications Workshops are designed to strengthen cybersecurity and digital assurance across the energy sector by focusing on secure deployment and management of grid communications technologies. These workshops bring together state energy offices, utilities, and technology suppliers to explore the intersection of communications infrastructure, supply chain risks, and emerging regulatory requirements. Participants will apply Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles to reduce risks in communications systems, engage with INL’s procurement guidance, and explore future tools. Through scenario-based exercises and peer exchange, attendees will develop risk-based security strategies and actionable compliance roadmaps tailored to their grid communications projects. The workshops also help participants navigate evolving regulatory frameworks such as FEOC rules in the OBBB, NERC CIP-013, and NDAA 2024, while identifying compliance gaps in mixed-technology environments. A key outcome is the formation of a practitioner network with ongoing access to INL expertise and resources, fostering long-term resilience in the digital energy ecosystem. This is Session 2 of 3 (Full Version).

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Grid Communications: Cybersecurity and Supply Chain Challenges and Emerging Regulation Session Three

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Lifecycle Industry GreenHouse gas, Technology and Energy through the Use Phase (LIGHTEnUP) – Analysis Tool User’s Guide

The LIGHTEnUP Analysis Tool (Lifecycle Industry GreenHouse gas, Technology and Energy through the Use Phase) has been developed for The United States Department of Energy’s (U.S. DOE) Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) to forecast both the manufacturing sector and product life-cycle energy consumption implications of manufactured products across the U.S. economy. The tool architecture incorporates publicly available historic and projection datasets of U.S. economy-wide energy use including manufacturing, buildings operations, electricity generation and transportation. The tool requires minimal inputs to define alternate scenarios to business-as-usual projection data. The tool is not an optimization or equilibrium model and therefore does not select technologies or deployment scenarios endogenously. Instead, inputs are developed exogenous to the tool by the user to reflect detailed engineering calculations, future targets and goals, or creative insights. The tool projects the scenario’s energy, CO 2 emissions, and energy expenditure (i.e., economic spending to purchase energy) implications and provides documentation to communicate results. The tool provides a transparent and uniform system of comparing manufacturing and use-phase impacts of technologies. The tool allows the user to create multiple scenarios that can reflect a range of possible future outcomes. However, reasonable scenarios require careful attention to assumptions and details about the future. This tool is part of an emerging set of AMO’s life cycle analysis (LCA) tool such as the Material Flows the Industry (MFI) tool, and the Additive Manufacturing LCA tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Repository-Scale Performance Assessment Incorporating Postclosure Criticality

A key objective of the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy’s Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign is to better understand the technical basis, risks, and uncertainty associated with the safe and secure disposition of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste. Commercial nuclear power generation in the United States has resulted in thousands of metric tons of SNF, the disposal of which is the responsibility of the DOE (Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended). Any repository licensed to dispose of SNF must meet requirements regarding the long-term performance of that repository. For an evaluation of the long-term performance of the repository, one of the events that may need to be considered is the SNF achieving a critical configuration during the postclosure period. Of particular interest is the potential behavior of SNF in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs), which are currently licensed and being used to store and transport SNF but were not designed for permanent geologic disposal. A study has been initiated to examine the potential consequences, with respect to long-term repository performance, of criticality events that might occur during the postclosure period in a hypothetical repository containing DPCs. The first phase (a scoping phase) consisted of developing an approach to creating the modeling tools and techniques that may eventually be needed to either include or exclude criticality from a performance assessment (PA) as appropriate; this scoping phase is documented in Price et al. (2019a). In the second phase, that modeling approach was implemented and future work was identified, as documented in Price et al. (2019b). This report gives the results of a repository-scale PA examining the potential consequences of postclosure criticality, as well as the information, modeling tools, and techniques needed to incorporate the effects of postclosure criticality in the PA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2018

Global carbon intensity of crude oil production

Producing, transporting, and refining crude oil into fuels such as gasoline and diesel accounts for ~15 to 40% of the “well-to-wheels” life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of transport fuels. Reducing emissions from petroleum production is of particular importance, as current transport fleets are almost entirely dependent on liquid petroleum products, and many uses of petroleum have limited prospects for near-term substitution (e.g., air travel). Better understanding of crude oil GHG emissions can help to quantify the benefits of alternative fuels and identify the most cost-effective opportunities for oil-sector emissions reductions. Yet, while regulations are beginning to address petroleum sector GHG emissions, and private investors are beginning to consider climate-related risk in oil investments, such efforts have generally struggled with methodological and data challenges. First, no single method exists for measuring the carbon intensity (CI) of oils. Second, there is a lack of comprehensive geographically rich datasets that would allow evaluation and monitoring of life-cycle emissions from oils. We have previously worked to address the first challenge by developing open-source oil-sector CI modeling tools [OPGEE, supplementary materials (SM) 1.1]. Furthermore, we address the second challenge by using these tools to model well-to-refinery CI of all major active oil fields globally—and to identify major drivers of these emissions.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2014

Science and Technology Review (March 2014)

Over the past few years, Lawrence Livermore has experienced a surge of innovation in radiochemistry—the science of generating, identifying, isolating, and characterizing the radioactive isotopes of chemical elements. For example, Livermore researchers have developed a technique for producing double-sided target foils and built a target surface mapping tool, which increased the productivity of stockpile stewardship experiments. Radiochemists are also using the Laboratory’s particle accelerator to measure nuclear reaction products for reactor safety and nuclear forensics research. Another Livermore team is making synthetic nuclear debris samples with ingredients that more closely match debris from a real explosion for use in isotope identification exercises. Researchers are also refining the chemicals and protocols required to perform wet-chemistry experiments on transactinides, shortlived heavy elements such as flerovium and livermorium. A collaboration with two universities is developing a portable, automated system that can quickly capture, prepare, and chemically test radioisotopes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2010

Constructing a resilience index for the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection Program

Following recommendations made in Homeland Security Presidential Directive 7, which established a national policy for the identification and increased protection of critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) by Federal departments and agencies, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in 2006 developed the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection (ECIP) program. The ECIP program aimed to provide a closer partnership with state, regional, territorial, local, and tribal authorities in fulfilling the national objective to improve CIKR protection. The program was specifically designed to identify protective measures currently in place in CIKR and to inform facility owners/operators of the benefits of new protective measures. The ECIP program also sought to enhance existing relationships between DHS and owners/operators of CIKR and to build relationships where none existed (DHS 2008; DHS 2009). In 2009, DHS and its protective security advisors (PSAs) began assessing CIKR assets using the ECIP program and ultimately produced individual protective measure and vulnerability values through the protective measure and vulnerability indices (PMI/VI). The PMI/VI assess the protective measures posture of individual facilities at their 'weakest link,' allowing for a detailed analysis of the most vulnerable aspects of the facilities (Schneier 2003), while maintaining the ability to produce an overall protective measures picture. The PMI has six main components (physical security, security management, security force, information sharing, protective measures assessments, and dependencies) and focuses on actions taken by a facility to prevent or deter the occurrence of an incident (Argonne National Laboratory 2009). As CIKR continue to be assessed using the PMI/VI and owners/operators better understand how they can prevent or deter incidents, academic research, practitioner emphasis, and public policy formation have increasingly focused on resilience as a necessary component of the risk management framework and infrastructure protection. This shift in focus toward resilience complements the analysis of protective measures by taking into account the three other phases of risk management: mitigation, response, and recovery (Figure 1). Thus, the addition of a robust resilience index (RI) to the established PMI/VI provides vital information to owners/operators throughout the risk management process. Combining a pre-incident focus with a better understanding of resilience, as well as potential consequences from damaged CIKR, allows owners/operators to better understand different ways to decrease risk by (1) increasing physical security measures to prevent an incident, (2) supplementing redundancy to mitigate the effects of an incident, and (3) enhancing emergency action and business continuity planning to increase the effectiveness of recovery procedures. Information provided by the RI methodology is also used by facility owners/operators to better understand how their facilities compare to similar sector/subsector sites and to help them make risk-based decisions. This report provides an overview of the RI methodology developed to estimate resilience and provide resilience comparisons for sectors and subsectors. The information will be used to (1) assist DHS in analyzing existing response and recovery methods and programs at facilities and (2) identify potential ways to increase resilience. The RI methodology is based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry, which is 'the coevolutionary search for the best in people, their organizations, and the relevant world around them' (Cooperrider et al. 2005). Appreciative Inquiry identifies the best of 'what is' and helps to envision 'what might be.' The ECIP program and the RI represent a new model (using Appreciative Inquiry principles) for information sharing between government and industry (Fisher and Petit 2010). A 'dashboard' display, which provides an interactive tool - rather than a static report, presents the results of the RI in a convenient format. Additional resilience measures can be modeled to illustrate how such actions would impact the asset's RI value.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Next Generation System Analysis Model Recently Added Features and Future Plans - Abstract

The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended (NWPA 1982), established the federal government’s responsibility to accept spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from waste owners and generators for ultimate disposition. SNF generated by the current fleet of commercial nuclear reactors is being stored at the reactor sites in spent fuel pools (SFPs) and in dry independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSIs). The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) is developing an Integrated Waste Management Program (IWMP) comprising a suite of options and supporting analyses to enable future informed choices. The IWMP is applying integrated waste management system architecture analysis, system engineering, and decision analysis principles to inform potential future decisions regarding potential nuclear waste management system architectures. Architecture analyses of the IWM system are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive system for managing nuclear waste that considers all major aspects of the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation software tool designed for the express purpose of modeling the IWM system. NGSAM imports data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Unified Database (e.g., historic assembly information, thermal profiles for assembly heat, at-reactor dry storage loadings) to ensure that the simulation initializes with a realistic representation of the state of commercial SNF in the United States. Recent major enhancements that have been implemented into NGSAM since NGSAM was last presented at the WM2019 conference include: • Tracking of railroad escort and buffer car acquisition. • Addition of heavy haul and barge routes for some sites, as well as support for user-defined inter-modal routes. • Updates to the logic that checks the thermal maps prior to package transport. • Addition of an allocation method that predicts when reactor sites will pack assemblies from their pools for dry storage and allocates packages to those reactor sites in the preceding periods, favoring direct transport packages and reducing the number of packages that reactor sites pack for dry storage at their ISFSIs. • Addition of reactor site family operational limits, which are used to limit the number of loads from the pool and from dry storage at a given reactor site per year. • Support has been added for multiple canister loading maps and packages having multiple compatible transportation overpacks. • Updates in the handling of non-commercial fuel, including a new database containing data to support the updates. • Support for repackaging at reactor sites. • Implementing additional output reports or modifying existing reports. • User edits can now be created and edited via the NGSAM website. • Ability to load packages for dry storage at ISF pools. • Same-type package blending at DOE sites. • Support for multi-mode transloading at reactor sites. These new features have improved NGSAM capabilities and/or improve the user experience with the model and will be discussed in more detail. The initial NGSAM requirements for advanced reactor fuels, reprocessing, treatment, and conditioning are preliminary and are described at a high level in this paper: analysts will provide more specific requirements to the NGSAM team in the future. Additionally, there are many data needs associated with modeling advanced reactors in NGSAM, but many of the data or plans are still in progress and/or yet to be fully defined. However, this document describes an initial exploration of the data relevant to this program. Advanced reactor data will likely require revision as concepts evolve and new considerations are made. This is a technical paper that does not take into account contractual limitations or obligations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). For example, under the provisions of the Standard Contract, spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters is not an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed to contract amendment. To the extent discussions or recommendations in this paper conflict with the provisions of the Standard Contract, the Standard Contract governs the obligations of the parties, and this paper in no manner supersedes, overrides, or amends the Standard Contract. This paper reflects technical work which could support future decision making by DOE. No inferences should be drawn from this paper regarding future actions by DOE, which are limited both by the terms of the Standard Contract and Congressional appropriations for the Department to fulfill its obligations under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act including licensing and construction of a spent nuclear fuel repository.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Frontiers in the Economics of Widespread, Long-Duration Power Interruptions: Proceedings from an Expert Workshop

The costs to electric utility customers from short-term, limited geographic-scale power disruptions have been studied for many years. However, there is increasing interest among regulators, policy-makers, and utilities in developing and implementing methods for analyzing interruptions that are of longer duration (days, weeks, or longer) and of a larger geographic scope (entire metropolitan areas or regions which may extend across multiple service territories). A 2017 report from the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine indicated the importance of “develop[ing] comprehensive studies to assess the value to customers of improved reliability and resilience…during large-area, long-duration blackouts.” As a contribution toward fulfilling this recommendation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Electricity’s Transmission Permitting and Technical Assistance Division, in partnership with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), convened a workshop to identify research needs and discuss potential avenues for methodological advances in the economics of widespread, long-duration power interruptions. The workshop was organized around six key themes in the economics of widespread, long-duration interruptions. LBNL conducted a competitive solicitation for white papers on these themes, and the authors selected were leading experts in academia, industry, and the non-profit sector. They were tasked with assessing the state of knowledge on particular topics, and identifying research needs and promising directions to expand it. These topics included definitions of resilience and reliability; regional economic modeling approaches; uncertainty quantification; data challenges and opportunities; contingent valuation survey techniques; and reduced-form analytical tools for assessing the impacts of power interruptions of this scale. The authors of the six white papers presented their findings at the workshop, titled “Frontiers in the Economics of Widespread, Long-Duration Power Interruptions,” and held in Washington, D.C., on March 6, 2018. Each paper was the subject of its own session, with the presentations followed by comments by assigned discussants, and in turn a general discussion of the papers, their findings, and the issues they raised. In addition to the authors, discussants, and LBNL and DOE staff, the workshop participants comprised government, industry, and academic thought leaders from across the country.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods and system for siting advanced nuclear reactors and evaluating energy policy concerns

There is a growing sociopolitical desire to develop cleaner energy sources in the United States and maintain energy security. Regardless of politics, many coal-fired electric plants have already been shut down and many utilities are vowing to retire their current coal-fired assets within the next two decades. Replacement power assets require consideration of appropriate siting. A geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is useful to assist utility and energy companies, as well as policymakers, to evaluate potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States. A GIS-based framework is simply a database of location information that allows for mapping, querying, modeling, and analyzing data based on location. The spatial output can be structured to be visual, allowing for easier analysis of location data. The need to site additional power assets, including renewable resources and clean power sources, such as nuclear, led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool discussed in this paper. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth visual analysis for siting options. Energy companies and other stakeholders can use OR-SAGE to procure feedback quickly and effectively on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. Policymakers can use OR-SAGE to analyze the impacts of future energy technology decisions, while balancing competing resource use. Overall, this paper discusses the recent use of OR-SAGE for these purposes and plans for future development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Potential State Regulatory Pathways to Facilitate Low-Carbon Fuels

States and the federal government are increasingly engaged in the challenges around decarbonizing the electric grid. In particular, regulators, consumers, stakeholders, and utilities recognize the need to carefully consider the role natural gas will play in a decarbonized future. A variety of technology and policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas use are available, including energy efficiency programs, demand reduction tools, strategic electrification, and strategies to reduce emissions from natural gas production, transportation, and consumption. Low-carbon fuels – mainly renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen – are being considered an important component of decarbonization goals. RNG and hydrogen may be able to meaningfully reduce emissions from processes independent of geologic natural gas, displacing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although RNG and hydrogen are not cost-competitive today with geologic natural gas and are smaller in scale and potential than other decarbonization options, they can be explored as potential critical tools to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify or shift off of natural gas entirely, such as air travel, industrial processes, maritime transport, long-distance trucking, space heating on cold days, and railroads (Nadel, 2022). The role of this report is to provide informational context for state utility regulators to understand the impacts of and challenges associated with broader integration of low-carbon fuels, followed by examples of state regulatory actions taken to date to facilitate the development of low-carbon fuels. Setting clear guidance to calculate the environmental benefits of low-carbon fuels and continuing federal and state investments in research and development to reduce costs relative to fossil fuels will be important steps to take to signal the desire to grow the market for these fuels. State public utility commissions may play a key role in setting regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuels and ensuring that ratepayer funds, if utilized, are done so to further the public interest. This report is intended to summarize decisions that states have made to date on low-carbon fuels. In the spirit of understanding the current market and sharing information, this report provides success stories, and lessons learned across states as regulators implement varying strategies to achieve decarbonization objectives while maintaining their focus on affordability, safety, and reliability of the energy system. The report begins with an introduction of the role of natural gas in the U.S. economy (Section I) and background information on natural gas use, decarbonization, and low-carbon fuels (Section II). Next, the report describes the current market by discussing the scale of current production, emissions intensity, resource potential, and costs of low-carbon fuels compared to geologic natural gas (Section III). Following these sections, the report describes four strategies states have employed to facilitate low-carbon fuels: opening exploratory dockets, approving voluntary tariffs for customers, approving interconnection tariffs for producers, and considering portfolio-wide procurement targets (Section IV). This section lists states that have taken actions in each category, citing utility filings, commission decisions, stakeholder comments, and other relevant sources. Finally, the report concludes with suggested questions regulators may wish to consider regarding low-carbon fuels, in the interest of preparing to make decisions in the future (Section V). These questions include: Are there existing regulatory or technical barriers to voluntary purchases of low-carbon fuels? Can customers work with utilities to procure low-carbon fuels; are producers able to interconnect projects without significant barriers to entry? Should the infrastructure and/or commodity costs of low-carbon fuels be socialized among all ratepayers, or borne solely by the large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers currently driving the market? Should regulated natural gas and/or electric utilities own and operate low-carbon fuel production? How should regulators consider the unique decarbonization potential of low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, in decision-making? Is additional direction or clarity from state policymakers needed? What no-regrets approaches can help facilitate both near-term RNG development and long-term development of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels? We collectively wish to express our gratitude to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, for supporting this report and other technical assistance resources for state regulators on natural gas topics. State regulators operate under a variety of policy environments, and states have vastly different types of energy resources, infrastructure, and customers. While there is no optimal regulatory, policy, or technological solution that will be successful in every state, state regulators can benefit by exchanging lessons learned with their peers across the country. We look forward to continued engagement with our fellow commissioners, commission staff, NARUC, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other stakeholders to develop sound regulation in the public interest.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach for Effective Decision Support of Modern Energy Systems Depicted with Clean Hydrogen Production

A holistic approach to decision-making in modern energy systems is vital due to their increase in complexity and interconnectedness. However, decision makers often rely on narrowly-focused strategies, such as economic assessments, for energy system strategy selection. The approach in this paper helps considers various factors such as economic viability, technological feasibility, environmental impact, and social acceptance. By integrating these diverse elements, decision makers can identify more economically feasible, sustainable, and resilient energy strategies. While existing focused approaches are valuable since they provide clear metrics of a potential solution (e.g., an economic measure of profitability), they do not offer the much needed system-as-a-whole understanding. This lack of understanding often leads to selecting suboptimal or unfeasible solutions, which is often discovered much later in the process when a change may not be possible. This paper presents a novel evaluation framework to support holistic decision-making in energy systems. The framework is based on a systems thinking approach, applied through systems engineering principles and model-based systems engineering tools, coupled with a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The systems engineering approach guides the development of feasible solutions for novel energy systems, and the multicriteria decision analysis is used for a systematic evaluation of available strategies and objective selection of the best solution. The proposed framework enables holistic, multidisciplinary, and objective evaluations of solutions and strategies for energy systems, clearly demonstrates the pros and cons of available options, and supports knowledge collection and retention to be used for a different scenario or context. The framework is demonstrated in case study evaluation solutions for a novel energy system of clean hydrogen generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Urban Traveler - Changes and Impacts: Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) Metric

In response to the need to assess fundamental improvements in mobility as technology provides new modes, methods and opportunities in urban areas to connect people with goods, services and employment, a mobility-energy productivity (MEP) metric has been developed. The MEP metric fundamentally measures the potential of a multi-modal system to connect people to a variety of services and activities that define a high-quality of life. The MEP metric is measured relative to the cost, convenience and energy needed to provide connectivity. Fundamentally derived from accessibility theory, the MEP metric advances practice by using readily available travel time data (either from web-based APIs or outputs from an urban transportation model) combined with established parameters that reflect the cost, and energy intensity of various travel modes, along with relative frequency of activity engagement. The construction of the MEP metric allows for aggregation and disaggregation to the appropriate spatial, modal, and trip purpose resolution, as analysis needs dictate. The MEP metric could be used to compare alternative futures related to technology, infrastructure investment, or policy, providing a much needed tool for planners, researchers, and analysts.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using Mapping Tools to Prioritize Electric Vehicle Charger Benefits to Underserved Communities

Mapping tools can play an important role in incorporating equity into planning, implementing, and evaluating investments in electric vehicle (EV) charging stations, also referred to as EV chargers or electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). Federal, state, and local organizations need methodologies for using mapping tools as they pursue equity-focused goals to ensure that the benefits of investments in EV chargers flow to energy and environmental justice (EEJ) underserved communities. This report provides examples of how to apply mapping tools to identify priority locations for installing EV chargers that may benefit EEJ underserved communities through four EV charger planning approaches: corridor charging, community charging, fleet electrification, and diversity in STEM and workforce development. It also explores various methodologies for calculating low-public EVSE density. Ensuring that the benefits of EV charger investments flow to underserved communities involves prioritizing locally identified needs and incorporating community input when choosing charging station locations. Installing EV chargers in a census tract identified as an EEJ underserved community does not inherently mean that those EV chargers provide benefits to residents of that community. In addition, representatives of historically disadvantaged communities or environmental justice communities have concerns that installing EV chargers in their communities could potentially exacerbate or propagate existing inequities. While the methodologies described in this report may help identify priority census tracts for equity-focused EV charger investment, additional community engagement and site evaluation are necessary to determine whether EV chargers are accessible, affordable, and convenient to EEJ underserved community residents and what benefits the local community is looking to realize with EV charger installations. This report is the culmination of many discussions with project leaders from DOE-funded projects deploying EV chargers in communities across the nation, organizations representing EEJ underserved communities, state agencies developing EV investment plans, utilities making major EV investments, and DOE national laboratory experts working in transportation electrification. The authors distributed a draft report for peer review, and reviewer comments are summarized in this report. These methodologies are likely to evolve as more EV charger funding programs are implemented and more real-world data is available to measure the effectiveness of strategies for incorporating equity in EV charger deployment projects. Continued efforts to document best practices and critically evaluate whether equity-focused programs achieve their goals are needed as transportation electrification proceeds at the local, regional, and national levels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Addressing trend-related changes within cumulative effects studies in water resources planning

Summarized herein are 28 case studies wherein trend-related causative physical, social, or institutional changes were connected to consequential changes in runoff, water quality, and riparian and aquatic ecological features. The reviewed cases were systematically evaluated relative to their identified environmental effects; usage of analytical frameworks, and appropriate models, methods, and technologies; and the attention given to mitigation and/or management of the resultant causative and consequential changes. These changes also represent important considerations in project design and operation, and in cumulative effects studies associated therewith. The cases were grouped into five categories: institutional changes associated with legislation and policies (seven cases); physical changes from land use changes in urbanizing watersheds (eight cases); physical changes from land use changes and development projects in watersheds (four cases); physical, institutional, and social changes from land use and related policy changes in river basins (three cases); and multiple changes within a comprehensive study of land use and policy changes in the Willamette River Basin in Oregon (six cases). A tabulation of 110 models, methods and technologies used in the studies is also presented. General observations from this review were that the features were unique for each case; the consequential changes were logically based on the causative changes; the analytical frameworks provided relevant structures for the studies, and the identified methods and technologies were pertinent for addressing both the causative and consequential changes. One key lesson was that the cases provide useful, “real-world” illustrations of the importance of addressing trend-related changes in cumulative effects studies within water resources planning. Accordingly, they could be used as an “initial tool kit” for addressing trend-related changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗