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At least 775 records · Page 43

A Versatile Fiber Coating Process for Efficient Fabrication of Multifunctional Composites

The objective of this research is to demonstrate the versatility of a dip coating process for the efficient integration of piezoelectric barium titanate (BaTiO3) microparticles on a wide variety of fibers to design passive self-sensing composites. The microparticles were deposited on glass, aramid, and basalt fiber weaves through the proposed dip coating technique. A computational framework is established to predict the deposition thickness on the fiber surfaces from the given microparticle concentration, size, coating velocity, and coating fluid viscosity. The deposition quality assessment was performed through scanning electron microscope imaging and subsequent image analysis. BaTiO3-coated fibers were directly used in composite preparation. After fabrication, the BaTiO3-enhanced composites were subjected to high-voltage poling. Finally, their passive self-sensing properties were characterized through experimental studies. The results show the adaptability of the proposed coating process to integrate BaTiO3 microparticles within different types of fiber-reinforced composites enabling passive self-sensing to attain subsurface damage characterization.

Gupta, Sumit↗

Porting Fragmentation Methods to Graphical Processing Units Using an OpenMP Application Programming Interface: Offloading the Fock Build for Low Angular Momentum Functions

Here, a framework to offload four-index two-electron repulsion integrals to graphical processing units (GPUs) using OpenMP is discussed. The method has been applied to the Fock build for low angular momentum s and p functions in both the restricted Hartree–Fock (RHF) and in the effective fragment molecular orbital (EFMO) framework. Benchmark calculations for the GPU code for the pure RHF method show an increasing speedup relative to the existing OpenMP CPU code in GAMESS from 1.04 to 52× for clusters of 70–569 water molecules. The parallel efficiency on 24 NVIDIA V100 GPU boards also increases when increasing the system size: from 75 to 94% for water clusters that contain 303–1120 molecules. In the EFMO framework, the GPU Fock build shows a high linear scalability up to 4608 V100s with a parallel efficiency of 96% for calculations on a solvated mesoporous silica nanoparticle system with ~67,000 basis functions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Systematic Method and Tool for Sustainable Process Synthesis, Designanalysis and Innovation

Computer-aided tools have been successfully developed and used in different segments of the entire process development cycle. For example, there are established tools for chemical process design, simulation, heat exchanger network synthesis and many more. However, one needs an integrated platform to perform process synthesis, design and analysis of chemical processes in a systematic manner. Also, in order to obtain a truly innovative and sustainable solution, it is necessary to search the entire feasible search space of alternatives and select the best process alternative, which is not very easy and will be time consuming. Therefore, it is beneficial to utilize computer-aided methods and tools to enumerate, analyze and determine within the design space, the more sustainable processes. This work highlights the development of a computer aided methodology and corresponding integrated platform for fast, reliable and consistent generation of process flowsheets. As a result, this paper gives an overview of the key concepts and the method is presented along with details of the developed computer-aided tool.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessment of the Corrosion Risks to a Double Shell Tank During the Selective Removal of a Cesium-rich Supernate Layer - 20227

The Direct Feed Low Activity Waste (DF-LAW) activity will provide the initial feed to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant at the Hanford Tank Farm facility. Feed preparation for DF-LAW will be carried out in multiple double shell waste tanks (DST) utilizing the Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) process. Tank AP-106 will be an integral part of the TSCR process and hence key to the DFLAW activity. Prior to being utilized for this purpose, the Cs-137 concentration levels in the AP-106 supernate must be reduced significantly. The AP-106 re-purposing process manages normal waste tank addition procedures such that waste acceptance criteria objectives for Cs-137 removal are achieved. As this process was being developed, several concerns regarding tank integrity during and after repurposing of Tank AP-106, and the associated tanks (i.e., AP-102, AN-101, and AP-108), were addressed. The potential corrosion degradation mechanisms identified based on process knowledge included: general and pitting corrosion, caustic stress corrosion cracking, concentration cell corrosion, and microbiologically induced corrosion (MIC). A systematic approach was undertaken to assess the risk of corrosion during the AP-106 re-purposing process. The assessment considered the initial and present condition of the tank, the service history of the tank, the environmental conditions created in each tank during each stage of the process, process timing, and corrosion testing and modeling that approximated tank conditions. Based on this information, recommendations were provided to minimize the exposure of the tank to corrosive conditions. These recommendations included time limits for each stage of the process, staging of corrosion inhibitor solutions should process delays occur, and waste sampling with potential chemistry adjustments at defined steps in the process. Additionally, recommendations for post-process supernate chemistry adjustments and tank inspections were put forth. The greatest risk for this process occurs during the manipulation of large quantities of Columbia River water (i.e., greater than 450,000 gallons) within AP-106, the associated tanks and the supporting infrastructure (i.e., transfer line piping). This risk becomes more pronounced if there is a process upset and the tank walls remain exposed to a corrosive condition longer than intended. As long as the river water is blended into the supernate in a timely fashion, and the waste is adjusted appropriately with corrosion inhibitors, corrosion may be minimized and the final condition of the supernate in AP-106 and the associated tanks is expected to be in compliance with corrosion chemistry requirements. Contingency plans will be made to minimize the impact of a process upset. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Comparative Study of Flash and Acid Hydrolysis of Microalgae (Scenedesmus sp.) for the Recovery of Biochemicals and Production of Porous Biocarbon Nanosheets

An integrated biorefinery concept is a novel and economical process intensification methodology for efficient utilization of biomass components. In this research, microalgae (Scenedesmus sp.) slurry with biomass concentration of 8.5 wt.% was parallelly fractionated using two techniques: 'flash hydrolysis (FH)' and 'acid hydrolysis (AH)'. FH was performed at 240 degrees C with a residence time of 10 +/- 2 s in a continuous flow reactor, whereas AH was performed at 155 degrees C and reaction time of 15 min in a batch reactor. About 63% of microalgal biomass was solubilized in liquid hydrolysate through both FH and AH. However, AH had an advantage over FH in recovering microalgae proteins and carbohydrates. FAME recovery through solvent extraction from FH and AH derived wet solids (insoluble microalgae) was 40 and 63%, respectively. Finally, the FH- and AH-derived post extraction solid residue was thermally activated using K2CO3 to produce highly microporous biocarbon nanosheets with BET surface areas of 712 and 1289 m2 g-1, respectively. Overall, an integrated process was developed using two potential hydrolysis techniques to maximize utilization of microalgae components.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,BIOMASS FUELS↗

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Catalytic Upgrading of Pyrolysis Vapors 2.3.1.314

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) is a versatile pathway for the direct liquefaction of biomass and waste carbon sources to generate a stabilized bio-oil intermediate that can be further processed into renewable fuels, chemicals, and materials. The objective of this project is advance the CFP state-of-technology through integrated catalyst and process development, expand market responsiveness by creating routes to novel co-products, and provide experimental data to inform process modelling and scale-up activities. Research advancements over the past two years include reducing analytical uncertainty by achieving 100 ± 1% carbon balances during reaction testing with woody biomass, improving process efficiency by achieving a 4x increase in catalyst cycle length, demonstrating compatibility with waste feedstocks, and confirming process durability for 100+ reaction cycles. Additionally, this project supported a comprehensive pathway review to evaluate scale-up needs. This review resulted in the early identification of technical risks and informed proactive planning for the BETO 2022 Verification. Other impacts from this project include generation of broadly enabling scientific knowledge (14 publications/18 presentations since 2019), engagement with industry partners (e.g., Johnson Matthey and ExxonMobil), and identification of a promising pathway to market that addresses emerging demands for biogenic refinery feedstocks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Quantifying transport and electrocatalytic reaction processes in a gastight rotating cylinder electrode reactor via integration of Computational Fluid Dynamics modeling and experiments

Understanding the complexity of the multiple processes of mass, momentum, charge, and heat transport, and how these affect reaction kinetics at the electrode/electrolyte interface is one of the major challenges in the field of energy and catalysis. The rapid and rational scale-up of electrocatalytic systems to industrial scales require a detailed understanding of nonlinear transport-reaction processes, accessible only through the building of multi-physics models that capture with high fidelity the complexity of real-world devices. The gastight rotating cylinder electrode (RCE) reactor is a promising lab-scale tool that can decouple transport from intrinsic kinetics to generate data for first-principle models useful in the design of industrial, electrochemical reactors. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) studies have previously been used to investigate the bulk flow in RCE reactors for simple corrosion and electroplating processes. However, the quantification of changes in local concentration within the viscous layer where catalysis takes place requires capturing the correct flow conditions inside the hydrodynamic boundary layer near the surface of the electrode. Further, this requires simulations with spatial resolution in the nm and μm scale and temporal resolutions between ms and s scales that are similar to the timescales for reactions on the electrode surface. In this study, experimental electrocatalysis is combined with CFD modeling to elucidate and parameterize the hydrodynamics in a gastight RCE reactor. CFD simulations of the electrochemical ferricyanide reduction reaction under mass transport limited conditions are used to evaluate the validity of the CFD model parameters by comparing calculated dimensionless mass transport descriptors to dimensionless correlations obtained experimentally. Justifications for assumptions and details of the simulation methods used in this study are presented to provide a detailed understanding of the effect that each model parameter has on the ability to accurately simulate electrocatalysis in RCE systems. The simulation methodology reported here is a first step towards the development of multi-scale models for the study of transport dependent electrocatalytic processes, such as the electrochemical transformation of CO 2 to fuels and chemicals.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Building a sustained climate assessment process

The leaders and authors of the Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) developed new modes of engaging academia, the private sector, government agencies and civil society to support their needs for usable, rigorous, and timely information and better connect science and decision-making. A strategic vision for assessment activities into the future was built during the NCA3 process, including recommendations on how to establish a sustained assessment process that would integrate evolving scientific understanding into decision making to manage the risks of climate change over time. This vision includes a collaborative assessment process that involves partnerships across a diverse and widely distributed set of non-governmental and governmental entities. The new approach to assessments would produce timely, scientifically sound climate information products and processes, rather than focusing on the production of single quadrennial synthesis reports. If properly implemented, a sustained assessment would be more efficient and cost-effective, avoiding the painful and time-consuming process of beginning the assessment process anew every 4 years. This ongoing assessment would also encourage scientific and social innovations and explore new insights and opportunities, building the capacity to advance the development and delivery of climate information to meet societal requirements and benefit from scientific opportunities.

Buizer, James L.↗

Screening green solvents for multilayer plastic film recycling processes

Multilayer (ML) plastic films are essential packaging materials that help protect products from diverse external factors; however, only 5% of all ML films are recycled in the United States. Solvent-based technologies are a promising alternative for recycling ML films because they enable recovery of constituent polymer resins. For example, the Solvent Targeted Recovery and Precipitation (STRAPTM) process sequentially dissolves and separates polymer components using a series of targeted solvent washes. A crucial design aspect of this process is the impact of selected solvents on human health and on the environment. Here, this work introduces a computational framework that integrates molecular modeling, process modeling, techno-economic analysis (TEA), and life-cycle analysis (LCA) to quickly screen green solvents for solvent-based ML recycling processes. Initial screening for solvents based on selectivity is performed by estimating temperature-dependent solubilities using molecular-scale models. Subsequent screening uses basic estimates of energy use and octanol-water partition coefficients (logP) as key measures of health, safety, and environmental hazards. Detailed process modeling, TEA, and LCA are used on a reduced set of promising solvents identified in early screening steps to more accurately determine how solvent selection and associated operating conditions impact overall economics and environmental impacts. The framework is used for the identification of green solvents (from a database of 1,000 solvents) that separate an industrial ML film composed of polyethylene (PE), ethylene vinyl alcohol (EVOH), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). Our analysis shows the effectiveness of the framework and reveals fundamental trade-offs between solvent greenness, solubility, and economics. Our work emphasizes the importance of taking a holistic systems view during solvent design and aims to inform the development of new processes for ML film recycling and the identification of new ML films that are easier to recycle.

economics↗

Manufacturing scalability implications of materials choice in inorganic solid-state batteries

The pursuit of scalable and manufacturable all-solid-state batteries continues to intensify, motivated by the rapidly increasing demand for safe, dense electrical energy storage. Here, we describe the numerous, often conflicting implications of materials choices that have been made in the search for effective mitigations to the interfacial instabilities plaguing solid-state batteries. Specifically, we show that the manufacturing scalability of solid-state batteries can be governed by at least three principal consequences of materials selection: (1) the availability, scaling capacity, and price volatility of the chosen materials’ constituents, (2) the manufacturing processes needed to integrate the chosen materials into full cells, and (3) the cell performance that may be practically achieved with the chosen materials and processes. While each of these factors is, in isolation, a pivotal determinant of manufacturing scalability, we show that consideration and optimization of their collective effects and trade-offs is necessary to more completely chart a scalable pathway to manufacturing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TU-AB-BRD-04: Development of Quality Management Program

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TU-AB-BRD-00: Task Group 100

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TU-AB-BRD-01: Process Mapping

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TU-AB-BRD-02: Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before a failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

System Modeling Frameworks for Wind Turbines and Plants: Review and Requirements Specifications

System modeling frameworks for wind turbines and plants are used by research groups and industry to design wind energy systems that take into account key trade-offs across performance, cost, and reliability at both the turbine and plant level. The frameworks are exercised using a variety of multi-disciplinary design, analysis and optimization (MDAO) methods. To improve inter-operability and foster collaboration, this report proposes a classification system for the frameworks along dimensions of model fidelity and scope. The classification system is first motivated with reviews the state-of-the-art in the development of software frameworks for integrated wind turbine and plant simulation. Within each major wind turbine and power plant subsystem, a matrix is developed for the disciplines used and the fidelity levels with which each discipline can be modeled. The existing frameworks are then classified according to the matrix. Next, an ontology is proposed that will allow for standardizing how data is transferred between the most common discipline-fidelity combinations used in the frameworks. A common representation of data creates the ability to 1) share system descriptions and analysis results, supporting more transparent benchmarks and comparison, and 2) integrate models together into workflows within and across organizations for improving the efficiency and performance of wind turbine and power plant design processes. Ultimately, this integration leads to better overall wind energy system designs with high performance and low costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Load Forecasting in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

Integrated resource planning (IRP) is a process used by many vertically-integrated U.S. electric utilities to determine least-cost/risk supply and demand-side resources that meet government policy objectives and future obligations to customers and, in many cases, shareholders. Forecasts of energy and peak demand are a critical component of the IRP process. There have been few, if any, quantitative studies of IRP long-run (planning horizons of two decades) load forecast performance and its relationship to resource planning and actual procurement decisions. In this paper, we evaluate load forecasting methods, assumptions, and outcomes for 12 Western U.S. utilities by examining and comparing plans filed in the early 2000s against recent plans, up to year 2014. We find a convergence in the methods and data sources used. We also find that forecasts in more recent IRPs generally took account of new information, but that there continued to be a systematic over-estimation of load growth rates during the period studied. We compare planned and procured resource expansion against customer load and year-to-year load growth rates, but do not find a direct relationship. Load sensitivities performed in resource plans do not appear to be related to later procurement strategies even in the presence of large forecast errors. These findings suggest that resource procurement decisions may be driven by other factors than customer load growth. Our results have important implications for the integrated resource planning process, namely that load forecast accuracy may not be as important for resource procurement as is generally believed, that load forecast sensitivities could be used to improve the procurement process, and that management of load uncertainty should be prioritized over more complex forecasting techniques.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗