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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and alternatives to empirical orthogonal functions for earth system data

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) applied to gridded Earth system data enables users to diagnose modes of variability with relative ease. Yet, many challenges to interpretation exist such that they must be used with awareness and intention when applied to gridded climate data, especially with large ensembles. Utilizing data from two different Earth system modelling large ensemble frameworks, the Energy Exoscale Earth System Model and the Community Earth System Model, as well as reanalysis data, common EOF pitfalls are summarized and discussed. Challenges include erroneous mode swapping, sign flipping, and the temporal variability of the centers of action. For modes of variability with similar contribution to variance, mode swapping is not uncommon. Sign flipping can occur with almost any mode where the pattern is correct, but the sign is arbitrary. Although the variability of the center of action is not necessarily problematic, it potentially complicates interpretation over multi-century timescales. A wide variety of alternative methods to EOFs exist, but fitness-for-purpose must be evaluated. Additionally, illustrations of alternative methods and examples of proper use are provided. Alternative methods fit into three categories: EOF variants, linear methods, and multilinear methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic-associated increased fluctuations of midlatitude winter temperature in the 1.5° and 2.0° warmer world

In recent decades, the interior regions of Eurasia and North America have experienced several unprecedentedly cold winters despite the global surface air temperature increases. One possible explanation of these increasing extreme cold winters comes from the so-called Warm Arctic Cold Continent (WACC) pattern, reflecting the effects of the amplified Arctic warming in driving the circulation change over surrounding continents. This study analyzed reanalysis data and model experiments forced by different levels of anthropogenic forcing. It is found that WACC exists on synoptic scales in observations, model’s historical and even future runs. In the future, the analysis suggests a continued presence of WACC but with a slightly weakened cold extreme due to the overall warming. Warm Arctic events under the warmer climate will be associated with not only a colder continent in East Asia but also a warmer continent, depending on the teleconnection process that is also complicated by the warmer Arctic. Such an increasingly association suggests a reduction in potential predictability of the midlatitude winter anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observed increase in the peak rain rates of monsoon depressions

Most extreme precipitation in the densely populated region of central India is produced by atmospheric vortices called monsoon lows and monsoon depressions. Here we use satellite and gauge-based precipitation estimates with atmospheric reanalyses to assess 40-year trends in the rain rates of these storms, which have remained unknown. We show that rain rates increased in the rainiest quadrant of monsoon depressions, southwest of the vortex center; precipitation decreased in eastern quadrants, yielding no clear trend in precipitation averaged over the entire storm diameter. In an atmospheric reanalysis, ascent increased in the region of amplifying precipitation, but we could not detect trends in the intensity of rotational winds around the storm center. These storm changes occurred in a background environment where humidity increased rapidly over land while warming was more muted. Monsoon lows, which we show produce less precipitation than depressions, exhibit weaker trends that are less statistically robust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

What controls the interannual variation of Hadley cell extent in the Northern Hemisphere: physical mechanism and empirical model for edge variation

Abstract The Hadley circulation is the most prominent atmospheric meridional circulation, reducing the radiatively driven equator-to-pole temperature gradient. While the Hadley cell extent varies by several degrees from year to year, the detailed dynamical mechanisms behind such variations have not been well elucidated. During the expanded phase of the Hadley cell, many regions on the periphery of the subtropics experience unfavorable climatic conditions. In this study, using ERA5 reanalysis data, we examine the physical chain of events responsible for the interannual variation of the Hadley cell edge (HCE) latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. This variation is mainly caused by changing eddy activity and wave breaking from both stationary and transient waves. In particular, we show that transient waves cause the HCE to shift poleward by increasing the eddy momentum flux divergence (EMFD) and reducing the baroclinicity over 20°–40°N, shifting the region of peak baroclinicity poleward. El Niño/La Niña and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) account for a significant portion (60%) of the interannual fluctuation of the HCE latitude. Through the poleward displacement of eddy activity, La Niña and a positive AO state are associated with the poleward shift of the HCE. The analysis of 28 CMIP5 models reveals statistical relationships between EMFD, vertical shear, and HCE latitude similar to those observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bimodality in simulated precipitation frequency distributions and its relationship with convective parameterizations

Abstract Bimodality in precipitation frequency distributions is often evident in atmospheric models, but rarely in observations. This study i) proposes a metric to objectively quantify the bimodality in precipitation distributions, ii) evaluates model simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5), phase 6 (CMIP6), and the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) project by comparing them to satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products, and iii) investigates possible origins of bimodal precipitation distributions. Our results reveal that about 83% (20 out of 24) of CMIP5 and 70% (21 out of 30) of CMIP6 models used in this study exhibit bimodal distributions. The few DYAMOND models that use a deep convective parameterization also show bimodal distributions, while most DYAMOND models do not. Predictably, the bimodality originates from the separation of precipitation process between resolved grid-scale and parameterized subgrid-scale. However, in a larger number of models bimodality arises from the parameterized subgrid-scale convective precipitation alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades

Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years, causing dramatic environmental and socioeconomic impacts. However, inconsistencies have emerged about long-term changes in Arctic cyclone activity. Here we analyze multiple reanalysis datasets covering a multidecadal period with improvements to the cyclone tracking algorithm and the integrated cyclone activity metric. The results indicate an intensification of Arctic cyclone activity over the last seven decades. There has been a long-term shift of the maximum cyclone counts from weaker to stronger cyclones and a pronounced lengthening of the duration of strong cyclones. Spatial analysis shows increased strong cyclone frequency over the Arctic, driven by enhanced lower troposphere baroclinicity, amplified winter jet stream waves over the subpolar North Atlantic, and a strengthened summer tropospheric vortex over the central Arctic. The stratospheric vortex has also intensified the tropospheric waves and vortex with distinct dynamics between winter and summer. Recently enhanced baroclinicity over large areas of the Arctic and midlatitudes suggests more complicated atmospheric dynamics than what is hypothesized with Arctic-amplification-induced decrease in meridional temperature gradients.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Back-to-back high category atmospheric river landfalls occur more often on the west coast of the United States

Abstract The catastrophic December 2022-January 2023 nine atmospheric rivers in California underscore the urgent need to better understand such high-risk weather extremes. Here we applied a machine learning clustering tool to understand the activity of atmospheric river clusters. Reanalysis results show that clusters with high density, that is the time fraction under atmospheric river conditions within a cluster, exhibit more frequent high-category atmospheric rivers, alongside an increased likelihood for extreme precipitation and severe land surface responses. The key circulation patterns of atmospheric river clusters are primarily attributed to subseasonal variability. Furthermore, the occurrence and density of atmospheric river clusters are modulated by the daily variability of the geopotential height field. Climate model projections suggest that atmospheric river clusters with higher density and higher categories will be more frequent as warming level increases. Our findings emphasize the important role of atmospheric river clusters in the development of climate adaptation and resilience strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming.

Arctic Sea Ice change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming

The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic.

Arctic amplification↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Experimental and Theoretical Study of the High Temperature Reactions of the Four Butyl Radical Isomers

The high temperature gas phase chemistry of the four butyl radical isomers (n-butyl,sec-butyl, iso-butyl, andtert-butyl) was investigated in a combined experimental and theoretical study. Organic nitrites were used as convenient and clean sources of each of the butyl radical isomers. Rate coefficients for dissociation of each nitrite were obtained experimentally and are at, or close to, the high pressure limit. Low pressure experiments were performed in a diaphragmless shock tube with laser schlieren densitometry at post-shock pressures of 65, 130, and 260 Torr and post-shock temperatures of 700-1000 K. Additional experiments were conducted with iso-butyl radicals at 805 K and 8.7 bar to elucidate changes in mechanism at higher pressures. These experiments were performed in a miniature shock tube with synchrotron-based photoionization mass spectrometry. The mass spectra confirmed that scission of the O-NO bond is the primary channel by which the precursors dissociate, but they also provided evidence of a minor channel (<7.7%) through HNO loss and formation of an aldehyde. These high pressure experiments were also used to determine the disproportionation/recombination ratio for iso-butyl radicals as 0.3. Reanalysis of the lower-temperature literature and the present data yielded rate constants for the disproportionation reaction, iso-butyl + iso-butyl = iso-butene + iso-butane. A chemical kinetics model was developed for the reactions of the butyl isomers that included new paths for highly energized adducts. These adducts are formed by the addition of H, CH 3 or C 2 H 5 to the butyl radicals. Accompanying theoretical investigations show that chemically activated pathways are competitive with stabilization of the adduct by collision under the conditions of the laser schlieren experiments. These calculations also show that at 10 bar and T< 1000 K stabilization is the only important reaction, but at higher temperatures, even at 10 bar, chemically activated product channels should also be considered. Branching fractions and rate coefficients are presented for these reactions. Furthermore, this study also highlights the importance of the radical structure for determining branching ratios for disproportionation and recombination of alkyl radicals, and these were facilitated by theoretical calculations of recombination rate coefficients for the four butyl radical isomers. Overall, the results reveal previously unknown features of butyl radical chemistry under conditions that are relevant to a wide range of applications and reaction mechanisms are presented that incorporate pressure dependent rate coefficients for the key steps.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A conformational equilibrium in the nitrogenase MoFe protein with an α-V70I amino acid substitution illuminates the mechanism of H 2 formation

Study of α-V70I-substituted nitrogenase MoFe protein identified Fe6 of FeMo-cofactor (Fe 7 S 9 MoC-homocitrate) as a critical N 2 binding/reduction site. Freeze-trapping this enzyme during Ar turnover captured the key catalytic intermediate in high occupancy, denoted E 4 (4H), which has accumulated 4[e — /H + ] as two bridging hydrides, Fe2–H–Fe6 and Fe3–H–Fe7, and protons bound to two sulfurs. E 4 (4H) is poised to bind/reduce N 2 as driven by mechanistically-coupled H 2 reductive-elimination of the hydrides. This process must compete with ongoing hydride protonation (HP), which releases H 2 as the enzyme relaxes to state E 2 (2H), containing 2[e — /H + ] as a hydride and sulfur-bound proton; accumulation of E 4 (4H) in α-V70I is enhanced by HP suppression. EPR and 95 Mo ENDOR spectroscopies now show that resting-state α-V70I enzyme exists in two conformational states, both in solution and as crystallized, one with wild type (WT)-like FeMo-co and one with perturbed FeMo-co. These reflect two conformations of the Ile residue, as visualized in a reanalysis of the X-ray diffraction data of α-V70I and confirmed by computations. EPR measurements show delivery of 2[e — /H + ] to the E 0 state of the WT MoFe protein and to both α-V70I conformations generating E 2 (2H) that contains the Fe3–H–Fe7 bridging hydride; accumulation of another 2[e — /H + ] generates E 4 (4H) with Fe2–H–Fe6 as the second hydride. E 4 (4H) in WT enzyme and a minority α-V70I E 4 (4H) conformation as visualized by QM/MM computations relax to resting-state through two HP steps that reverse the formation process: HP of Fe2–H–Fe6 followed by slower HP of Fe3–H–Fe7, which leads to transient accumulation of E 2 (2H) containing Fe3–H–Fe7. In the dominant α-V70I E 4 (4H) conformation, HP of Fe2–H–Fe6 is passively suppressed by the positioning of the Ile sidechain; slow HP of Fe3–H–Fe7 occurs first and the resulting E 2 (2H) contains Fe2–H–Fe6. Importantly, it is this HP suppression in E 4 (4H) that enables α-V70I MoFe to accumulate E 4 (4H) in high occupancy. In addition, HP suppression in α-V70I E 4 (4H) kinetically unmasks hydride reductive-elimination without N 2 -binding, a process that is precluded in WT enzyme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO. I. An exploration of systematic uncertainties in the inference of $H_0$ from time-delay cosmography

Time-delay cosmography of lensed quasars has achieved 2.4% precision on the measurement of the Hubble constant, H0. As part of an ongoing effort to uncover and control systematic uncertainties, we investigate three potential sources: 1- stellar kinematics, 2- line-of-sight effects, and 3- the deflector mass model. To meet this goal in a quantitative way, we reproduced the H0LiCOW/SHARP/STRIDES (hereafter TDCOSMO) procedures on a set of real and simulated data, and we find the following. First, stellar kinematics cannot be a dominant source of error or bias since we find that a systematic change of 10% of measured velocity dispersion leads to only a 0.7% shift on H0 from the seven lenses analyzed by TDCOSMO. Second, we find no bias to arise from incorrect estimation of the line-of-sight effects. Third, we show that elliptical composite (stars + dark matter halo), power-law, and cored power-law mass profiles have the flexibility to yield a broad range in H0 values. However, the TDCOSMO procedures that model the data with both composite and power-law mass profiles are informative. If the models agree, as we observe in real systems owing to the “bulge-halo” conspiracy, H0 is recovered precisely and accurately by both models. If the two models disagree, as in the case of some pathological models illustrated here, the TDCOSMO procedure either discriminates between them through the goodness of fit, or it accounts for the discrepancy in the final error bars provided by the analysis. This conclusion is consistent with a reanalysis of six of the TDCOSMO (real) lenses: the composite model yields H0 = 74.0−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, while the power-law model yields 74.2−1.6+1.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. In conclusion, we find no evidence of bias or errors larger than the current statistical uncertainties reported by TDCOSMO.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The chemical composition of globular clusters in the Local Group

We present detailed chemical abundance measurements for 45 globular clusters (GCs) associated with galaxies in (and, in one case, beyond) the Local Group. The measurements are based on new high-resolution integrated-light spectra of GCs in the galaxies NGC 185, NGC 205, M 31, M 33, and NGC 2403, combined with reanalysis of previously published observations of GCs in the Fornax dSph, WLM, NGC 147, NGC 6822, and the Milky Way. The GCs cover the range -2.8 < [Fe/H] < -0.1 and we determined abundances for Fe, Na, Mg, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Zr, Ba, and Eu. Corrections for non local thermodynamic equilibrium effects are included for Na, Mg, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, Ni, and Ba, building on a recently developed procedure. For several of the galaxies, our measurements provide the first quantitative constraints on the detailed composition of their metal-poor stellar populations. Overall, the GCs in different galaxies exhibit remarkably uniform abundance patterns of the α, iron-peak, and neutron-capture elements, with a dispersion of less than 0.1 dex in [α/Fe] for the full sample. There is a hint that GCs in dwarf galaxies are slightly less α-enhanced (by ~0.04 dex on average) than those in larger galaxies. One GC in M 33 (HM33-B) resembles the most metal-rich GCs in the Fornax dSph (Fornax 4) and NGC 6822 (SC7) by having α-element abundances closer to scaled-solar values, possibly hinting at an accretion origin. A principal components analysis shows that the α-element abundances strongly correlate with those of Na, Sc, Ni, and Zn. Several GCs with [Fe/H] < -1.5 are deficient in Mg compared to other α-elements. We find no GCs with strongly enhanced r-process abundances as reported for metal-poor stars in some ultra-faint dwarfs and the Magellanic Clouds. The similarity of the abundance patterns for metal-poor GCs in different environments points to similar early enrichment histories and only allow for minor variations in the initial mass function.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reshock analysis for PMMA driven above the threshold for chemical decomposition

Polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) is a transparent thermoplastic often used in shock compression science. Previous proceedings (AIP Conf. Proc. 845, 131 (2006)) described plate impact experiments in which PMMA was reshocked to pressures of up to ~130 GPa, well above that at which it decomposes on its principal Hugoniot. Because some of the conclusions of the original analysis were surprising, the results were reanalyzed in a later proceeding (ibid. 1426, 771 (2012)). In addition to our own reanalysis of the data, we performed hydrodynamic simulations of the experiments based on a new equation of state for PMMA shocked above its threshold for decomposition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel data gaps filling method for solar PV output forecasting

This study proposes a modified gaps filling method, expanding the column mean imputation method and evaluated using randomly generated missing values comprising 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% of the original data on power output. The XGBoost algorithm was implemented as a forecasting model using the original and processed datasets and two sources of solar radiation data, namely, Shortwave Radiation (SWR) from Advanced Himawari Imager 8 (AHI-8) and Surface Solar Radiation Downward (SSRD) from ERA5 global reanalysis data. Further, the accuracy of the two sets of forecasted power output was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results show that by applying the proposed gap filling method and using SWR in forecasting solar photovoltaic (PV) output, the improvement in the RMSE and MAE values range from 12.52% to 24.30% and from 21.10% to 31.31%, respectively. Meanwhile, using SSRD, the improvement in the RMSE values range from 14.01% to 28.54% and MAE values from 22.39% to 35.53%. To further evaluate the accuracy of the proposed gap-filling method, the proposed method could be validated using different datasets and other forecasting methods. Future studies could also consider applying the said method to datasets with data gaps higher than 20%.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution climate model datasets for energy infrastructure planning in a renewable-dependent future

Electrification and renewables deployment efforts are amplifying the interdependence of the climate and energy systems. Increases in climate model resolution, which is now approaching that of reanalysis datasets and operational weather forecast models, present a unique opportunity to use future climate projections for energy infrastructure planning. In this Perspective, we review recent developments in high-resolution climate modeling, which have been driven by increased computing power and advanced software tools. We then look ahead to discuss how high-resolution climate data can be used to plan for a renewable-dependent future, and envision a unified climate-energy model framework that captures the two-way feedbacks between these interdependent systems.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enriched East Asian oxygen isotope of precipitation indicates reduced summer seasonality in regional climate and westerlies

Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual δ 18 O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18 O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18 O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual δ 18 O p between 18 O-enriched and 18 O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonstationarity in the global terrestrial water cycle and its interlinkages in the Anthropocene

Climate change and human activities alter the global freshwater cycle, causing nonstationary processes as its distribution shifting over time, yet a comprehensive understanding of these changes remains elusive. Here, we develop a remote sensing–informed terrestrial reanalysis and assess the nonstationarity of and interconnections among global water cycle components from 2003 to 2020. We highlight 20 hotspot regions where terrestrial water storage exhibits strong nonstationarity, impacting 35% of the global population and 45% of the area covered by irrigated agriculture. Emerging long-term trends dominate the most often (48.2%), followed by seasonal shifts (32.8%) and changes in extremes (19%). Notably, in mid-latitudes, this encompasses 34% of Asia and 27% of North America. The patterns of nonstationarity and their dominant types differ across other water cycle components, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and gross primary production. These differences also manifest uniquely across hotspot regions, illustrating the intricate ways in which each component responds to climate change and human water management. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering nonstationarity when assessing water cycle information toward the development of strategies for sustainable water resource usage, enhancing resilience to extreme events, and effectively addressing other challenges associated with climate change.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗