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At least 775 records · Page 43

Modelling Greenland Outlet Glaciers

The objective of this project was to develop simple yet realistic models of Greenland outlet glaciers to better understand ongoing changes and to identify possible causes for these changes. Several approaches can be taken to evaluate the interaction between climate forcing and ice dynamics, and the consequent ice-sheet response, which may involve changes in flow style. To evaluate the icesheet response to mass-balance forcing, Van der Veen (Journal of Geophysical Research, in press) makes the assumption that this response can be considered a perturbation on the reference state and may be evaluated separately from how this reference state evolves over time. Mass-balance forcing has an immediate effect on the ice sheet. Initially, the rate of thickness change as compared to the reference state equals the perturbation in snowfall or ablation. If the forcing persists, the ice sheet responds dynamically, adjusting the rate at which ice is evacuated from the interior to the margins, to achieve a new equilibrium. For large ice sheets, this dynamic adjustment may last for thousands of years, with the magnitude of change decreasing steadily over time as a new equilibrium is approached. This response can be described using kinematic wave theory. This theory, modified to pertain to Greenland drainage basins, was used to evaluate possible ice-sheet responses to perturbations in surface mass balance. The reference state is defined based on measurements along the central flowline of Petermann Glacier in north-west Greenland, and perturbations on this state considered. The advantage of this approach is that the particulars of the dynamical flow regime need not be explicitly known but are incorporated through the parameterization of the reference ice flux or longitudinal velocity profile. The results of the kinematic wave model indicate that significant rates of thickness change can occur immediately after the prescribed change in surface mass balance but adjustments in flow rapidly diminish these rates to a few cm/yr at most. The time scale for adjustment is of the order of a thousand years or so.

vanderVeen, Cornelis↗

Lessons Learned on Implementing Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) in a Ground Launch Environment

This paper's main purpose is to detail issues and lessons learned regarding designing, integrating, and implementing Fault Detection Isolation and Recovery (FDIR) for Constellation Exploration Program (CxP) Ground Operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Part of the0 overall implementation of National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) CxP, FDIR is being implemented in three main components of the program (Ares, Orion, and Ground Operations/Processing). While not initially part of the design baseline for the CxP Ground Operations, NASA felt that FDIR is important enough to develop, that NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate's (ESMD's) Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP) initiated a task for it under their Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) research area. This task, referred to as the FDIIR project, is a multi-year multi-center effort. The primary purpose of the FDIR project is to develop a prototype and pathway upon which Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) may be transitioned into the Ground Operations baseline. Currently, Qualtech Systems Inc (QSI) Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) software products Testability Engineering and Maintenance System (TEAMS) Designer and TEAMS RDS/RT are being utilized in the implementation of FDI within the FDIR project. The TEAMS Designer COTS software product is being utilized to model the system with Functional Fault Models (FFMs). A limited set of systems in Ground Operations are being modeled by the FDIR project, and the entire Ares Launch Vehicle is being modeled under the Functional Fault Analysis (FFA) project at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Integration of the Ares FFMs and the Ground Processing FFMs is being done under the FDIR project also utilizing the TEAMS Designer COTS software product. One of the most significant challenges related to integration is to ensure that FFMs developed by different organizations can be integrated easily and without errors. Software Interface Control Documents (ICDs) for the FFMs and their usage will be addressed as the solution to this issue. In particular, the advantages and disadvantages of these ICDs across physically separate development groups will be delineated.

Ferrell, Bob A.↗

Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink?

The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink-estimate is produced by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation-based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter-model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SU-E-J-177: A Computational Approach for Determination of Anisotropic PTV Margins Based On Statistical Shape Analysis for Prostate Cancer Radiotherapy

Purpose: Our aim of this study was to propose a computational approach for determination of anisotropic planning target volume (PTV) margins based on statistical shape analysis with taking into account time variations of clinical target volume (CTV) shapes for the prostate cancer radiation treatment planning (RTP). Methods: Systematic and random setup errors were measured using orthogonal projection and cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images for data of 20 patients, who underwent the intensity modulated radiation therapy for prostate cancer. The low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk CTVs were defined as only a prostate, a prostate plus proximal 1-cm seminal vesicles, and a prostate plus proximal 2-cm seminal vesicles, respectively. All CTV regions were registered with a reference CTV region with a median volume to remove the effect of the setup errors, and converted to a point distribution models. The systematic and random errors for translations of CTV regions were automatically evaluated by analyzing the movements of centroids of CTV regions. The random and systematic errors for shape variations of CTV regions were obtained from covariance matrices based on point distributions for the CTV contours on CBCT images of 72 fractions of 10 patients. Anisotropic PTV margins for 6 directions (right, left, anterior, posterior, superior and inferior) were derived by using Yoda’s PTV margin model. Results: PTV margins with and without shape variations were 5.75 to 8.03 mm and 5.23 to 7.67 mm for low-risk group, 5.87 to 8.33 mm and 5.23 to 7.67 mm for intermediate-risk group, and 5.88 to 8.25 mm and 5.29 to 7.82 mm for highrisk group, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed computational approach could be feasible for determination of the anisotropic PTV margins with taking into account CTV shape variations for the RTP.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reference respiratory waveforms by minimum jerk model analysis

Purpose: CyberKnife{sup ®} robotic surgery system has the ability to deliver radiation to a tumor subject to respiratory movements using Synchrony{sup ®} mode with less than 2 mm tracking accuracy. However, rapid and rough motion tracking causes mechanical tracking errors and puts mechanical stress on the robotic joint, leading to unexpected radiation delivery errors. During clinical treatment, patient respiratory motions are much more complicated, suggesting the need for patient-specific modeling of respiratory motion. The purpose of this study was to propose a novel method that provides a reference respiratory wave to enable smooth tracking for each patient. Methods: The minimum jerk model, which mathematically derives smoothness by means of jerk, or the third derivative of position and the derivative of acceleration with respect to time that is proportional to the time rate of force changed was introduced to model a patient-specific respiratory motion wave to provide smooth motion tracking using CyberKnife{sup ®}. To verify that patient-specific minimum jerk respiratory waves were being tracked smoothly by Synchrony{sup ®} mode, a tracking laser projection from CyberKnife{sup ®} was optically analyzed every 0.1 s using a webcam and a calibrated grid on a motion phantom whose motion was in accordance with three pattern waves (cosine, typical free-breathing, and minimum jerk theoretical wave models) for the clinically relevant superior–inferior directions from six volunteers assessed on the same node of the same isocentric plan. Results: Tracking discrepancy from the center of the grid to the beam projection was evaluated. The minimum jerk theoretical wave reduced the maximum-peak amplitude of radial tracking discrepancy compared with that of the waveforms modeled by cosine and typical free-breathing model by 22% and 35%, respectively, and provided smooth tracking for radial direction. Motion tracking constancy as indicated by radial tracking discrepancy affected by respiratory phase was improved in the minimum jerk theoretical model by 7.0% and 13% compared with that of the waveforms modeled by cosine and free-breathing model, respectively. Conclusions: The minimum jerk theoretical respiratory wave can achieve smooth tracking by CyberKnife{sup ®} and may provide patient-specific respiratory modeling, which may be useful for respiratory training and coaching, as well as quality assurance of the mechanical CyberKnife{sup ®} robotic trajectory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Simulations of Lithium-Based Neutron Coincidence Counter for Gd-Loaded Fuel

The Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Safeguards and Security (NA-241) is supporting the project Lithium-Based Alternative Neutron Detection Technology Coincidence Counting for Gd-loaded Fuels at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the development of a lithium-based neutron coincidence counter for nondestructively assaying Gd loaded nuclear fuel. This report provides results from MCNP simulations of a lithium-based coincidence counter for the possible measurement of Gd-loaded nuclear fuel. A comparison of lithium-based simulations and UNCL-II simulations with and without Gd loaded fuel is provided. A lithium-based model, referred to as PLNS3A-R1, showed strong promise for assaying Gd loaded fuel.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Using learning curves on energy-efficient technologies to estimate future energy savings and emission reduction potentials in the U.S. iron and steel industry

Increasing concerns on non-sustainable energy use and climate change spur a growing research interest in energy efficiency potentials in various critical areas such as industrial production. This paper focuses on learning curve aspects of energy efficiency measures in the U.S iron and steel sector. A number of early-stage efficient technologies (i.e., emerging or demonstration technologies) are technically feasible and have the potential to make a significant contribution to energy saving and CO 2 emissions reduction, but fall short economically to be included. However, they may also have the cost effective potential for significant cost reduction and/or performance improvement in the future under learning effects such as ‘learning-by-doing’. The investigation is carried out using ISEEM, a technology oriented, linear optimization model. We investigated how steel demand is balanced with/without the availability learning curve, compared to a Reference scenario. The retrofit (or investment in some cases) costs of energy efficient technologies decline in the scenario where learning curve is applied. The analysis also addresses market penetration of energy efficient technologies, energy saving, and CO 2 emissions in the U.S. iron and steel sector with/without learning impact. Accordingly, the study helps those who use energy models better manage the price barriers preventing unrealistic diffusion of energy-efficiency technologies, better understand the market and learning system involved, predict future achievable learning rates more accurately, and project future savings via energy-efficiency technologies with presence of learning. We conclude from our analysis that, most of the existing energy efficiency technologies that are currently used in the U.S. iron and steel sector are cost effective. Penetration levels increases through the years, even though there is no price reduction. However, demonstration technologies are not economically feasible in the U.S. iron and steel sector with the current cost structure. In contrast, some of the demonstration technologies are adapted in the mid-term and their penetration levels increase as the prices go down with learning curve. We also observe large penetration of 225kg pulverized coal injection with the presence of learning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Lessons Learned from OSIRIS-Rex Autonomous Navigation Using Natural Feature Tracking

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer (Osiris-REx) spacecraft is scheduled to launch in September, 2016 to embark on an asteroid sample return mission. It is expected to rendezvous with the asteroid, Bennu, navigate to the surface, collect a sample (July 20), and return the sample to Earth (September 23). The original mission design called for using one of two Flash Lidar units to provide autonomous navigation to the surface. Following Preliminary design and initial development of the Lidars, reliability issues with the hardware and test program prompted the project to begin development of an alternative navigation technique to be used as a backup to the Lidar. At the critical design review, Natural Feature Tracking (NFT) was added to the mission. NFT is an onboard optical navigation system that compares observed images to a set of asteroid terrain models which are rendered in real-time from a catalog stored in memory on the flight computer. Onboard knowledge of the spacecraft state is then updated by a Kalman filter using the measured residuals between the rendered reference images and the actual observed images. The asteroid terrain models used by NFT are built from a shape model generated from observations collected during earlier phases of the mission and include both terrain shape and albedo information about the asteroid surface. As a result, the success of NFT is highly dependent on selecting a set of topographic features that can be both identified during descent as well as reliably rendered using the shape model data available. During development, the OSIRIS-REx team faced significant challenges in developing a process conducive to robust operation. This was especially true for terrain models to be used as the spacecraft gets close to the asteroid and higher fidelity models are required for reliable image correlation. This paper will present some of the challenges and lessons learned from the development of the NFT system which includes not just the flight hardware and software but the development of the terrain models used to generate the onboard rendered images.

Navigation↗

Column Number Density Expressions Through M = 0 and M = 1 Point Source Plumes Along Any Straight Path

Providers of payloads carried aboard the International Space Station must conduct analyses to demonstrate that any planned gaseous venting events generate no more than a certain level of material that may interfere with optical measurements from other experiments or payloads located nearby. This requirement is expressed in terms of a maximum column number density (CND). Depending on the level of rarefaction, such venting may be characterized by effusion for low flow rates, or by a sonic distribution at higher levels. Since the relative locations of other sensitive payloads are often unknown because they may refer to future projects, this requirement becomes a search for the maximum CND along any path.In another application, certain astronomical observations make use of CND to estimate light attenuation from a distant star through gaseous plumes, such as the Fermi Bubbles emanating from the vicinity of the black hole at the center of our Milky Way galaxy, in order to infer the amount of material being expelled via those plumes.This paper presents analytical CND expressions developed for general straight paths based upon a free molecule point source model for steady effusive flow and for a distribution fitted to model flows from a sonic orifice. Among other things, in this Mach number range it is demonstrated that the maximum CND from a distant location occurs along the path parallel to the source plane that intersects the plume axis. For effusive flows this value is exactly twice the CND found along the ray originating from that point of intersection and extending to infinity along the plumes axis. For sonic plumes this ratio is reduced to about 43.

Venting↗

STELAR: An experiment in the electronic distribution of astronomical literature

STELAR (Study of Electronic Literature for Astronomical Research) is a Goddard-based project designed to test methods of delivering technical literature in machine readable form. To that end, we have scanned a five year span of the ApJ, ApJ Supp, AJ and PASP, and have obtained abstracts for eight leading academic journals from NASA/STI CASI, which also makes these abstracts available through the NASA RECON system. We have also obtained machine readable versions of some journal volumes from the publishers, although in many instances, the final typeset versions are no longer available. The fundamental data object for the STELAR database is the article, a collection of items associated with a scientific paper - abstract, scanned pages (in a variety of formats), figures, OCR extractions, forward and backward references, errata and versions of the paper in various formats (e.g., TEX, SGML, PostScript, DVI). Articles are uniquely referenced in the database by journal name, volume number and page number. The selection and delivery of articles is accomplished through the WAIS (Wide Area Information Server) client/server models requiring only an Internet connection. Modest modifications to the server code have made it capable of delivering the multiple data types required by STELAR. WAIS is a platform independent and fully open multi-disciplinary delivery system, originally developed by Thinking Machines Corp. and made available free of charge. It is based on the ISO Z39.50 standard communications protocol. WAIS servers run under both UNIX and VMS. WAIS clients run on a wide variety of machines, from UNIX-based Xwindows systems to MS-DOS and macintosh microcomputers. The WAIS system includes full-test indexing and searching of documents, network interface and easy access to a variety of document viewers. ASCII versions of the CASI abstracts have been formatted for display and the full test of the abstracts has been indexed. The entire WAIS database of abstracts is now available for use by the astronomical community. Enhancements of the search and retrieval system are under investigation to include specialized searches (by reference, author or keyword, as opposed to full test searches), improved handling of word stems, improvements in relevancy criteria and other retrieval techniques, such as factor spaces. The STELAR project has been assisted by the full cooperation of the AAS, the ASP, the publishers of the academic journals, librarians from GSFC, NRAO and STScI, the Library of Congress, and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Warnock, A.↗

SU-C-BRA-07: Variability of Patient-Specific Motion Models Derived Using Different Deformable Image Registration Algorithms for Lung Cancer Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) Patients

Purpose: To study the variability of patient-specific motion models derived from 4-dimensional CT (4DCT) images using different deformable image registration (DIR) algorithms for lung cancer stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) patients. Methods: Motion models are derived by 1) applying DIR between each 4DCT image and a reference image, resulting in a set of displacement vector fields (DVFs), and 2) performing principal component analysis (PCA) on the DVFs, resulting in a motion model (a set of eigenvectors capturing the variations in the DVFs). Three DIR algorithms were used: 1) Demons, 2) Horn-Schunck, and 3) iterative optical flow. The motion models derived were compared using patient 4DCT scans. Results: Motion models were derived and the variations were evaluated according to three criteria: 1) the average root mean square (RMS) difference which measures the absolute difference between the components of the eigenvectors, 2) the dot product between the eigenvectors which measures the angular difference between the eigenvectors in space, and 3) the Euclidean Model Norm (EMN), which is calculated by summing the dot products of an eigenvector with the first three eigenvectors from the reference motion model in quadrature. EMN measures how well an eigenvector can be reconstructed using another motion model derived using a different DIR algorithm. Results showed that comparing to a reference motion model (derived using the Demons algorithm), the eigenvectors of the motion model derived using the iterative optical flow algorithm has smaller RMS, larger dot product, and larger EMN values than those of the motion model derived using Horn-Schunck algorithm. Conclusion: The study showed that motion models vary depending on which DIR algorithms were used to derive them. The choice of a DIR algorithm may affect the accuracy of the resulting model, and it is important to assess the suitability of the algorithm chosen for a particular application. This project was supported, in part, through a Master Research Agreement with Varian Medical Systems, Inc, Palo Alto, CA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2019 (Task E Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. DECOVALEX was initially motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. Later it was realized that these processes also play a critical role in other subsurface engineering activities, such as subsurface CO 2 storage, enhanced geothermal systems, and unconventional oil and gas production through hydraulic fracturing. Research teams from many countries (e.g., Canada, China, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Republic of Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom, and the United States) various institutions have participated in the DECOVALEX Project over the years, providing a wide range of perspectives and solutions to these complex problems. These institutions represent radioactive waste management organizations, national research institutes, regulatory agencies, universities, as well as industry and consulting groups. This document is the final report of Task E which was proposed and coordinated by Andra, the National Radioactive Waste Management Agency in France, presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. The purpose of Task E of the DECOVALEX-2019 project is to investigate upscaling THM modelling from small-scale experiments (some cubic meters) to full-scale experiments (some ten cubic meters) and finally to the scale of the waste repository (cubic kilometers). To achieve this aim, the data of two in-situ heating experiments performed by Andra (the French National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) in the Meuse/Haute-Marne Underground Research Laboratory (MHM URL) have formed the basis for the understanding of the THM behavior of the COx at different scales. The first experiment provided the reference values of the THM parameters by means of a calibration exercise and they were used for a blind prediction and an interpretative analysis of the second one.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

East Asian Studies of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST -AIRC): An overview

As the most populated region of the world, Asia is a major source of aerosols with potential large impact over vast downstream areas, Papers published in this special section describe the variety of aerosols observed in China and their effects and interactions with the regional climate as part of the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols and their Impact on Regional Climate (EAST-AIRC), The majority of the papers are based on analyses of observations made under three field projects, namely, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Mobile Facility mission in China (AMF-China), the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: An International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE), and the Atmospheric Aerosols of China and their Climate Effects (AACCE), The former two are U,S,-China collaborative projects, and the latter is a part of the China's National Basic Research program (or often referred to as "973 project"), Routine meteorological data of China are also employed in some studies, The wealth of general and speCIalized measurements lead to extensive and close-up investigations of the optical, physical, and chemical properties of anthropogenic, natural, and mixed aerosols; their sources, formation, and transport mechanisms; horizontal, vertical, and temporal variations; direct and indirect effects; and interactions with the East Asian monsoon system, Particular efforts are made to advance our understanding of the mixing and interaction between dust and anthropogenic pollutants during transport. Several modeling studies were carried out to simulate aerosol impact on radiation budget, temperature, precipitation, wind and atmospheric circulation, fog, etc, In addition, impacts of the Asian monsoon system on aerosol loading are also simulated.

Zhangqing, Li↗

Assessing Multi-Dimensional Impacts of Achieving Sustainability Goals by Projecting the Sustainable Agriculture Matrix Into the Future

The concept of sustainability inherently spans multiple spatial scales, sectors, variables, and time horizons. This study links a recently developed method of assessing present-day agricultural sustainability across environmental, economic, and social dimensions with a process-based integrated assessment model, in order to allow forward-looking analysis of sustainability by region and scenario. The sustainable agriculture matrix estimates present-day agricultural sustainability at the national level using 18 indicator variables, of which this study estimates nine to the year 2100, using an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model. Scenarios include a reference scenario, and scenarios that apply the following measures, both individually and in combination, that are thought to improve sustainability: yield intensification, transition toward more plant-based (“flexitarian”) diets, and economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. The scenarios illustrate considerable complexity and tradeoffs inherent to efforts to improve agricultural sustainability in all regions globally. For example, yield intensification typically increases nitrogen pollution, flexitarian diets can reduce agricultural output, and greenhouse gas mitigation efforts may either increase deforestation or crowd out crop and livestock production due to consequent bioenergy demands. However, there is considerable inter-regional heterogeneity in the responses, and the importance of such secondary responses also differs by region. The analysis and post-processing methods developed in this study allow quantification and visualization of the absolute and relative magnitude of the tradeoffs between agricultural sustainability indicator variables across regions, time periods, and scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

M3MS-19IN0101201 Modeling Intra-granular Fission Gas Bubble Evolution in Uranium Dioxide during Transients

The SciDAC milestone M3MS-19IN0101201 on Modeling Intra-granular Fission Gas Bubble Evolution in Uranium Dioxide during Transients was completed with the development, testing and implementation in the Bison code of an engineering model for intra-granular fission gas bubble evolution that is applicable to transient conditions. The model extends the previous work on modeling bubble evolution during normal operating conditions to include additional complexity that arises during transient situations, in particular, the so-called intra-granular bubble coarsening. This phenomenon refers to the appearance of a second population of coarsened bubbles with diameters of tens to hundreds of nm, which co-exist with nanometric bubbles present also during normal operating conditions and are responsible for a large portion of transient fuel swelling. The developed model considers growth of bubbles along dislocations, associated with the absorption of vacancies available in the dislocation core region, and favored by pipe diffusion of fission gas atoms. The model also utilizes the formulation for the gas atom resolution rate developed in the present SciDAC project through molecular dynamics simulations by other institutions. The present work therefore demonstrates an operational multiscale approach, based on collaboration within the project. The model is validated to an extensive experimental dataset of ramp tested uranium dioxide fuel samples. Additionally, we present new applications of the base model for bubble evolution during normal operating conditions to Bison engineering simulations of Cr2O3-doped fuel rods irradiated in the Halden reactor. Simulation results in terms of integral fission gas release in the fuel rods are compared to the available experimental data, pointing out significant improvements in the engineering predictions compared to application of the empirical model that was available in Bison before the SciDAC developments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Large-scale wind turbine structures

The purpose of this presentation is to show how structural technology was applied in the design of modern wind turbines, which were recently brought to an advanced stage of development as sources of renewable power. Wind turbine structures present many difficult problems because they are relatively slender and flexible; subject to vibration and aeroelastic instabilities; acted upon by loads which are often nondeterministic; operated continuously with little maintenance in all weather; and dominated by life-cycle cost considerations. Progress in horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWT) development was paced by progress in the understanding of structural loads, modeling of structural dynamic response, and designing of innovative structural response. During the past 15 years a series of large HAWTs was developed. This has culminated in the recent completion of the world's largest operating wind turbine, the 3.2 MW Mod-5B power plane installed on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Some of the applications of structures technology to wind turbine will be illustrated by referring to the Mod-5B design. First, a video overview will be presented to provide familiarization with the Mod-5B project and the important components of the wind turbine system. Next, the structural requirements for large-scale wind turbines will be discussed, emphasizing the difficult fatigue-life requirements. Finally, the procedures used to design the structure will be presented, including the use of the fracture mechanics approach for determining allowable fatigue stresses.

Spera, David A.↗

Directed Acyclic Graphs: A Tool for Understanding the NASA Human Spaceflight System Risks - Human System Risk Board

For over a decade, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has tracked and configuration-managed approximately 30 risks to astronaut health and performance that occur before, during and after spaceflight. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), a Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) Board at NASA Johnson Space Center, is the entity responsible for identifying, assessing, analyzing, and monitoring the official understanding of the risk or risk posture for each of the Human System Risks and determining – based on evaluation of the available evidence – when that risk posture changes. The ultimate purpose of tracking and researching these risks is to find ways to reduce the risk that astronaut crews face during spaceflight. Historically, research, development and operations relevant to one risk have been conducted in isolation from other risks; these individual risk ‘silos’ enabled initial characterization of each specific risk. In spaceflight however, the impact of exposure to risk for astronaut crews is cumulative, and not independent of exposures or other risks, as all the adverse effects of the spaceflight environment begin at launch, continue throughout the duration of the mission and in some cases across the lifetime of the crews. In January of 2020, the HSRB at NASA embarked on a pilot project designed to assess the potential value of causal diagramming as a tool to facilitate understanding of these cumulative and interdependent effects as applied within Human System Risk management. This process uses directed acyclic graphs as a means of formalizing a shared mental model of the causal flow of risk among Risk Board stakeholders. Initially this model was to improve communication among those stakeholders, but the potential value exceeds communication alone. The causal diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to function as a type of knowledge graph for reference for the board and its stakeholders. This document is a sister document to NASA/TM 20220006812 Directed Acyclic Graph Guidance Documentation (1). In that document, the basic guidance for creating and standardizing directed acyclic graphs as tools for cross-risk analysis is provided. This document contains the initial configuration managed DAGs that were created as a result of applying those principles. These initial versions were accepted by the HSRB in January of 2022. Each of the Human System Risks are represented by a DAG that has been reviewed by the larger Human Health and Performance community at NASA including life scientists, physical scientists, physicians, nurses, pharmacists, exercise specialists and more. These results show the starting point for Human System Risk DAGs as shared mental models and communication aids across the boundaries of the various expertise needed to understand and mitigate the human risks in spaceflight. Because they are a starting point, each of these DAGs can be expected to change over time as new or refined evidence becomes available. The process for updating these DAGs can be found in the JSC-66705 Human System Risk Management Plan (2) that is publicly available on the NASA Technical Reports Server.

Erik L. Antonsen↗