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At least 775 records · Page 43

Curves, Coriolis, and Cross-Channel Circulation in the Hudson River Estuary

Abstract Despite its relatively small magnitude, cross-channel circulation in estuaries can influence the along-channel momentum balance, dispersion, and transport. We investigate spatial and temporal variation in cross-channel circulation at two contrasting sites in the Hudson River estuary. The two sites differ in the relative strength and direction of Coriolis and curvature forcing. We contrast the patterns and magnitudes of flow at the two sites during varying conditions in stratification driven by tidal amplitude and river discharge. We found well-defined flows during flood tides at both sites, characterized by mainly two-layer structures when the water column was more homogeneous and structures with three or more layers when the water column was more stratified. Ebb tides had generally weaker and less definite flows, except at one site where curvature and Coriolis reinforced each other during spring tide ebbs. Cross-channel currents had similar patterns, but were oppositely directed at the two sites, demonstrating the importance of curvature even in channels with relatively gradual curves. Coriolis and curvature dominated the measured terms in the cross-channel momentum balance. Their combination was generally consistent with driving the observed patterns and directions of flow, but local acceleration and cross-channel advection made some notable contributions. A large residual in the momentum balance indicates that some combination of vertical stress divergence, baroclinic pressure gradients, and along-channel and vertical advection must play an essential role, but data limitations prevented an accurate estimation of these terms. Cross-channel advection affected the along-channel momentum balance at times, with implications for the exchange flow’s strength. Significance Statement Currents that flow across the channel in an estuary move slower than those flowing along the channel, but they can transport materials and change water properties in important ways, affecting human uses of estuaries such as shipping, aquaculture, and recreation. We wanted to better understand cross-channel currents in the Hudson River estuary. We found that larger tides produced the strongest cross-channel currents with a two-layer pattern, compared to weaker currents with three layers during smaller tides. Higher or lower river flow also affected current strength. Comparing two locations, we saw cross-channel currents moving in opposite directions because of differences in the curvature of the river channel. Our results show how channel curvature and Earth’s rotation combine to produce cross-channel currents.

Conley, Margaret M.↗

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: Observing System Experiments

Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations from the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation–A Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The impact of assimilating targeted UAS observations in addition to surface observations was compared to that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone using observing system experiments (OSEs) for a terrain-driven flow case and a convection initiation (CI) case observed within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV). The assimilation of UAS observations in addition to surface observations results in a clear increase in skill for both flow regimes over that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone. For the terrain-driven flow case, the UAS observations improved the representation of thermal stratification across the northern SLV, which produced stronger upvalley flow over the eastern half of the SLV that better matched the observations. For the CI case, the UAS observations improved the representation of the pre-convective environment by reducing dry biases across the SLV and over the surrounding terrain. This led to earlier CI and more organized convection over the foothills that spilled outflows into the SLV, ultimately helping to increase low-level convergence and CI there. In addition, the importance of UAS capturing an outflow that originated over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and triggered CI is discussed. These outflows and subsequent CI were not well captured in the simulation that assimilated surface observations alone. We report that observations obtained with a fleet of UAS are shown to notably improve high-resolution analyses and short-term predictions of two very different mesogamma-scale weather events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intensification of Hurricane Sally (2020) over the Mississippi River Plume

Abstract Tropical Cyclone (TC) Sally formed on 11 September 2020, traveled through the Gulf of Mexico (GMX), and intensified rapidly before making landfall on the Alabama coast as a devastating category-2 TC with extensive coastal and inland flooding. In this study, using a combination of observations and idealized numerical model experiments, we demonstrate that the Mississippi River plume played a key role in the intensification of Sally near the northern Gulf Coast. As the storm intensified and its translation slowed before landfall, sea surface cooling was reduced along its track, coincident with a pronounced increase in SSS. Further analysis reveals that TC Sally encountered a warm Loop Current eddy in the northern GMX close to the Mississippi River plume. Besides deepening the thermocline, the eddy advected low-salinity Mississippi River plume water into the storm’s path. This resulted in the development of strong upper-ocean salinity stratification, with a shallow layer of freshwater lying above a deep, warm “barrier layer.” Consequently, TC-induced mixing and the associated sea surface cooling were reduced, aiding Sally’s intensification. These results suggest that the Mississippi River plume and freshwater advection by the Loop Current eddies can play an important role in TC intensification near the U.S. Gulf Coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Smoothing Lexis diagrams using kernel functions: A contemporary approach

Lexis diagrams are rectangular arrays of event rates indexed by age and period. Analysis of Lexis diagrams is a cornerstone of cancer surveillance research. Typically, population-based descriptive studies analyze multiple Lexis diagrams defined by sex, tumor characteristics, race/ethnicity, geographic region, etc. Inevitably the amount of information per Lexis diminishes with increasing stratification. Several methods have been proposed to smooth observed Lexis diagrams up front to clarify salient patterns and improve summary estimates of averages, gradients, and trends. In this article, we develop a novel bivariate kernel-based smoother that incorporates two key innovations. First, for any given kernel, we calculate its singular values decomposition, and select an optimal truncation point—the number of leading singular vectors to retain—based on the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion. Second, we model-average over a panel of candidate kernels with diverse shapes and bandwidths. The truncated model averaging approach is fast, automatic, has excellent performance, and provides a variance-covariance matrix that takes model selection into account. We present an in-depth case study (invasive estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer incidence among non-Hispanic white women in the United States) and simulate operating characteristics for 20 representative cancers. The truncated model averaging approach consistently outperforms any fixed kernel. Our results support the routine use of the truncated model averaging approach in descriptive studies of cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Laminar-to-turbulent flame transition and cycle-to-cycle variations in large eddy simulation of spark-ignition engines

This paper investigates the effect of laminar-to-turbulent flame transition modeling on the prediction of cycle-to-cycle variations (CCVs) in large eddy simulation (LES) of spark-ignition (SI) engines. A laminar-to-turbulent flame transition model that describes the non-equilibrium sub-filter flame speed evolution during an early stage of flame kernel growth is developed. In the present model, the flame transition is characterized by the flame kernel size at which the flame transition ends, defined here as the flame transition scale. The proposed model captures the effects that variations in a turbulent flow field have on the evolution of early-stage burning rates, through variations in the flame transition scale. The proposed flame transition model is combined with the front propagation formulation (FPF) method and a spark-ignition model to predict CCVs in a gasoline direct injection SI engine. It is found that multi-cycle LES with the proposed flame transition model reproduces experimentally-observed CCVs satisfactorily. When the transition model is not considered or when variations in the transition process are neglected, CCVs are significantly under-predicted for the case considered here. These results indicate the importance of modeling the laminar-to-turbulent flame transition and the effect of turbulence on the transition process, when predicting CCVs, under certain engine conditions. The LES results are also used to analyze sources for variations in the flame transition. It is found, for the present engine case, that the most important source is the cycle-to-cycle variation in the turbulence dissipation rate, which is used to measure the strength of turbulence in the proposed model, near a spark plug. The large-scale velocity field and the variations of the laminar flame speed due to the mixture composition and thermal stratification are also found to be important factors to contribute to the variations in the flame transition.

42 ENGINEERING↗

CFD modeling of pre-spark heat release in a boosted direct-injection spark-ignition engine

Accurate predictions of low-temperature heat release (LTHR) are critical for modeling auto-ignition processes in internal combustion engines. While LTHR is typically obscured by deflagration, extremely late ignition phasing can lead to LTHR prior to the spark, a behavior known as pre-spark heat release (PSHR). In this research, PSHR in a boosted direct-injection spark-ignition engine was studied using 3-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and detailed chemical kinetics. The turbulent combustion was modeled via a hybrid approach that incorporates the G-equation model for tracking the turbulent flame front, and the well-stirred reactor model with detailed chemistry for assessing the low-temperature reactions in unburnt gas. Simulations were conducted using Co-Optima alkylate and E30 fuels at operating conditions characterized by different PSHR intensities. The predicted in-cylinder pressure and heat release rate were found to agree well with experiments. It was found the estimate of previous-cycle trapped residuals is of utmost importance for capturing PSHR correctly. A simulation best practice was developed which keeps the detailed chemistry solver active throughout the entire simulation, allowing to track the evolution of intermediate species from one cycle to the next. Following the validation, the dynamics of PSHR were analyzed in detail employing the pressure-temperature (P-T) trajectory framework. It was shown that PSHR correlated with the first-stage ignition delay of the fuel, hence showing close relation to the in-cylinder P-T trajectory and the chemical kinetics. Besides, it was indicated that LTHR is a self-limiting process that has the effect of attenuating the thermal stratification in the combustion chamber. Furthermore, it was observed the occurrence of PSHR caused the P-T trajectory of end-gas to overlap with the negative temperature coefficient region of the fuel’s ignition-delay maps. This effect was more significant in the fuel-rich regions where engine knock tendency would be generally higher, with potential implications on knock control and mitigation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Additive-Mixing Fuel Injection (AMFI): A device for robust control and improved performance of high-efficiency LTGC engines

Low-temperature gasoline combustion (LTGC) engines can provide high efficiencies with very low NOx and particulate emissions. Despite these major advantages, methods for controlling LTGC combustion timing, achieving robust autoignition, and good low-load performance have challenged the development of practical LTGC engines. A key reason is that the ideal reactivity of the fuel varies with operating conditions, with low-reactivity fuels working well at high loads and higher-reactivity fuels working better at low loads. This article introduces a new technique called Additive Mixing Fuel Injection (AMFI) that adjusts the reactivity of the gasoline to obtain good performance over the operating map. Moreover, AMFI can provide robust combustion-timing control because it precisely meters very small amounts (0.01–0.6 mm 3 ) of an ignition-enhancing additive into the fuel each engine cycle. The additive used was 2-ethylhexyl nitrate (EHN), a common, inexpensive diesel-fuel ignition improver, but other additives could be used. Because additive amounts are so small, a 2-gal reservoir would be sufficient for medium-duty applications with refilling only at service intervals of about 8000 mi. The AMFI system has been installed on a single-cylinder LTGC research engine and demonstrated to provide robust combustion-timing control over wide ranges of combustion phasing, fueling rate, intake boost, engine speed, and intake temperature. AMFI also increases the fuel’s reactivity sufficiently to greatly reduce or eliminate the need for charge heating, simplifying engine design and significantly increasing thermal efficiency and the maximum load at low-boost conditions. The nitrogen in the EHN produced a modest increase in NOx, but it was mitigated by lower intake temperatures, and NOx emissions remained very low. Finally, the additive increases the sensitivity of autoignition reactions to variations in the local fuel/air mixture within the charge. This allows the use of controlled fuel stratification for improved LTGC-engine performance, and its potential to improve low-load operation was demonstrated.

Dec, John E.↗

Practical low-temperature gasoline combustion for very high efficiency off-road, medium- and heavy-duty engines

Low-temperature gasoline combustion (LTGC) with additive-mixing fuel injection (AMFI) is a new combustion strategy that has been demonstrated to deliver 9%–25% better brake thermal efficiency than similar-sized market-leading diesel engines over the operating map. Moreover, the LTGC-AMFI engine shows near-zero smoke, and NOx emissions are 4–100 times lower than those of a diesel, sufficiently low that no aftertreatment, or only passive NOx aftertreatment, would be sufficient (diesel exhaust fluid is not required). LTGC-AMFI combustion is based on kinetically controlled compression ignition of a dilute charge with a variable amount of low-to-moderate fuel stratification. Fast combustion control is provided by adding minute amounts of an ignition-enhancing additive into the fuel each engine cycle to control its reactivity. This strategy was used to operate a medium-duty (MD) LTGC-AMFI engine at loads from idle to 16.3 bar BMEP and speeds from 600 to 2400 rpm with regular E10 gasoline, which covers nearly the entire operating map of a typical MD engine. Turbine-out temperatures were sufficient for an oxidation catalyst to control hydrocarbon and CO emissions. Autonomie simulations over the GEM ARB Transient and the GEM 55 mph Cruise driving cycles for class-6 trucks using this technology showed fuel economies of 8.1 and 11.4 mpg-gasoline-equivalent, respectively, corresponding to 18.6% and 13.4% improvements over a similar-size diesel engine. Engine-out NOx emissions were 0.024 and 0.01 g/bhp-h, respectively, well below current U.S. emission standards. These results show that switching from diesel to LTGC-AMFI engines would greatly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for off-road, MD and HD applications, which will continue to rely on combustion engines because electrification is not practical in the foreseeable future. Finally, with their reduced fuel consumption, the lower cost of gasoline compared to diesel fuel, and much lower aftertreatment costs, LTGC-AMFI engines also offer a significantly lower total cost of ownership.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Proteomic and phosphoproteomic measurements enhance ability to predict ex vivo drug response in AML

Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) affects 20,000 patients in the US annually with a five-year survival rate of approximately 25%. One reason for the low survival rate is the high prevalence of clonal evolution that gives rise to heterogeneous sub-populations of leukemic cells with diverse mutation spectra, which eventually leads to disease relapse. This genetic heterogeneity drives the activation of complex signaling pathways that is reflected at the protein level. This diversity makes it difficult to treat AML with targeted therapy, requiring custom patient treatment protocols tailored to each individual’s leukemia. Toward this end, the Beat AML research program prospectively collected genomic and transcriptomic data from over 1000 AML patients and carried out ex vivo drug sensitivity assays to identify genomic signatures that could predict patient-specific drug responses. However, there are inherent weaknesses in using only genetic and transcriptomic measurements as surrogates of drug response, particularly the absence of direct information about phosphorylation-mediated signal transduction. As a member of the Clinical Proteomic Tumor Analysis Consortium, we have extended the molecular characterization of this cohort by collecting proteomic and phosphoproteomic measurements from a subset of these patient samples (38 in total) to evaluate the hypothesis that proteomic signatures can improve the ability to predict response to 26 drugs in AML ex vivo samples. In this work we describe our systematic, multi-omic approach to evaluate proteomic signatures of drug response and compare protein levels to other markers of drug response such as mutational patterns. We explore the nuances of this approach using two drugs that target key pathways activated in AML: quizartinib (FLT3) and trametinib (Ras/MEK), and show how patient-derived signatures can be interpreted biologically and validated in cell lines. In conclusion, this pilot study demonstrates strong promise for proteomics-based patient stratification to assess drug sensitivity in AML.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging is associated with subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease

Background: The role and implementation of tau PET imaging for predicting subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) remains uncertain. This study was designed to evaluate the relationship between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET and subsequent longitudinal change across multiple cognitive measures over 18 months. Methods: Our analyses incorporated data from 67 participants, including cognitively normal controls (n = 10) and β-amyloid (Aβ)-positive individuals ([ 18 F] florbetapir Aβ PET) with prodromal (n = 26), mild (n = 16), or moderate (n = 15) AD. Baseline measurements included cortical volume (MRI), tau burden ([ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET), and cognitive assessments [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), 13-item version of the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog13), and Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS)]. Cognitive assessments were repeated at 6-month intervals over an 18-month period. Associations between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET indices and longitudinal cognitive performance were assessed via univariate (Spearman correlations) and multivariate (linear mixed effects models) approaches. The utility of potential prognostic tau PET cut points was assessed with ROC curves. Results: Univariate analyses indicated that greater baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET signal was associated with faster rates of subsequent decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13 across regions of interest (ROIs). In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline age, cognitive performance, cortical volume, and Aβ PET SUVR, the prognostic performance of [ 18 F]GTP1 SUVR was most robust in the whole cortical gray ROI. When AD participants were dichotomized into low versus high tau subgroups based on baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 PET standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR) in the temporal (cutoff = 1.325) or whole cortical gray (cutoff = 1.245) ROIs, high tau subgroups demonstrated significantly more decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13. Conclusions: Our results suggest that [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET represents a prognostic biomarker in AD and are consistent with data from other tau PET tracers. Tau PET imaging may have utility for identifying AD patients at risk for more rapid cognitive decline and for stratification and/or enrichment of participant selection in AD clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Accuracy of Fukuoka and American Gastroenterological Association Guidelines for Predicting Advanced Neoplasia in Pancreatic Cyst Neoplasm: A Meta-Analysis

Background: A differential diagnosis of advanced pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) is critical to determine optimal treatment. The Fukuoka and American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) guidelines are the most widely accepted criteria for the management of PCNs. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic value of these guidelines in predicting advanced neoplasia (AN). Methods: A comprehensive electronic search of the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Scopus databases was conducted to identify all relevant studies evaluating the Fukuoka and AGA guidelines in surgically resected and histologically confirmed PCNs. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) were calculated as compound measures of diagnostic accuracy using the random-effects model. Summary of receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were also performed. Results: A total of 21 studies with 3723 patients were included in this meta-analysis. Of these studies, 15, 4, and 2 evaluated the Fukuoka guidelines, the AGA guidelines, and both guidelines, respectively. For AN prediction, the Fukuoka guidelines had a pooled sensitivity of 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64–0.70), pooled specificity of 0.64 (95% CI 0.62–0.66), and pooled DOR of 6.28 (95% CI 4.38–9.01), with an AUC of the SROC of 0.78. AGA guidelines showed a pooled sensitivity of 0.59 (95% CI 0.52–0.65), pooled specificity of 0.77 (95% CI 0.74–0.80), and pooled DOR of 5.84 (95% CI 2.60–13.15), with an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.70–0.88). Conclusion: When used alone, the Fukuoka and AGA guidelines showed similar but unsatisfactory diagnostic accuracy in the risk stratification of malignant potential of PCN. Thus, we recommend that they be applied only as a broad framework in clinical practice.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Sedimentation pulse in the NE Gulf of Mexico following the 2010 DWH blowout

The objective of this study was to investigate the impacts of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil discharge at the seafloor as recorded in bottom sediments of the DeSoto Canyon region in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Through a close coupling of sedimentological, geochemical, and biological approaches, multiple independent lines of evidence from 11 sites sampled in November/December 2010 revealed that the upper ~1 cm depth interval is distinct from underlying sediments and results indicate that particles originated at the sea surface. Consistent dissimilarities in grain size over the surficial ~1 cm of sediments correspond to excess 234 Th depths, which indicates a lack of vertical mixing (bioturbation), suggesting the entire layer was deposited within a 4–5 month period. In addition, a time series from four deep-sea sites sampled up to three additional times over the following two years revealed that excess 234 Th depths, accumulation rates, and 234 Th inventories decreased rapidly, within a few to several months after initial coring. The interpretation of a rapid sedimentation pulse is corroborated by stratification in solid phase Mn, which is linked to diagenesis and redox change, and the dramatic decrease in benthic formanifera density that was recorded in surficial sediments. Results are consistent with a brief depositional pulse that was also reported in previous studies of sediments, and marine snow formation in surface waters closer to the wellhead during the summer and fall of 2010. Although sediment input from the Mississippi River and advective transport may influence sedimentation on the seafloor in the DeSoto Canyon region, we conclude based on multidisciplinary evidence that the sedimentation pulse in late 2010 is the product of marine snow formation and is likely linked to the DWH discharge.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Monitoring of dielectric permittivity in accelerated alkali-silica reaction concrete with microwave backscattering

Deterioration of concrete due to the alkali–silica reaction (ASR) involves a reaction between alkaline ions in the cement pore solution and non-crystalline silica found in many aggregates. The product of reaction is a porous hydrophilic ASR gel, which causes expansion and cracking of concrete structure. Currently, there is no reliable method for non-destructive evaluation of ASR. We have investigated the feasibility of using relative dielectric permittivity obtained from X-band microwave backscattering of concrete. Advantages of this method of concrete evaluation are that measurements are non-contact and one-sided, and the approach is scalable to arbitrary-size concrete structures. The exploratory study was performed using an unrestrained set of accelerated ASR concrete prism specimens developed according to the ASTM1293 standard. One set of specimens contained no entrained air, while another set was contained entrained air. The specimens were removed from the environmental chamber at different times during a year-long study to create a set of different ASR maturity specimens. Strain measurements were performed on all specimens. Strain data both air entrained and non-air entrained sets were shown to be in close agreement with Larive model of isothermal unrestrained ASR expansion with similar fitting parameters. Furthermore, relative dielectric permittivity of concrete specimens was correlated with strain data. Both sets show correlation between dielectric permittivity and strain, with stronger linear correlation observed for the air-entrained specimens. Development of such correlation would enable estimating expansion of actual concrete structures from microwave backscattering measurements, which could be used for risk stratification to guide and minimize coring.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multiplexed targeted mass spectrometry assays for prostate cancer-associated urinary proteins

Biomarkers for effective early diagnosis and prognosis of prostate cancer are still lacking. Multiplexed assays for cancer-associated proteins could be useful for identifying biomarkers for cancer detection and stratification. Herein, we report the development of sensitive targeted mass spectrometry assays for simultaneous quantification of 10 prostate cancer-associated proteins in urine. The diagnostic utility of these markers was evaluated with an initial cohort of 20 clinical urine samples. Individual marker concentration was normalized against the measured urinary prostate-specific antigen level as a reference of prostate-specific secretion. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for the 10 proteins ranged from 0.75 for CXCL14 to 0.87 for CEACAM5. Furthermore, MMP9 level was found to be significantly higher in patients with high Gleason scores, suggesting a potential of MMP9 as a marker for risk level assessment. Taken together, our work illustrated the feasibility of accurate multiplexed measurements of low-abundance cancer-associated proteins in urine and provided a viable path forward for preclinical verification of candidate biomarkers for prostate cancer.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗

A robust gene expression-based prognostic risk score predicts overall survival of lung adenocarcinoma patients

Identification of reliable predictive biomarkers and new therapeutic targets is a critical step for significant improvement in patient outcomes. Here, we developed a multi-step bioinformatics analytic strategy to mine large omics and clinical data to build a prognostic scoring system for predicting the overall survival (OS) of lung adenocarcinoma (LuADC) patients. In latter we first identified 1327 significantly and robustly deregulated genes, 600 of which were significantly associated with the OS of LuADC patients. Gene co-expression network analysis revealed the biological functions of these 600 genes in normal lung and LuADCs, which were found to be enriched for cell cycle-related processes, blood vessel development, cell-matrix adhesion and metabolic processes. Finally, we implemented a multiple resampling method combined with Cox regression analysis to identify a 27-gene signature associated with OS, and then created a prognostic scoring system based on this signature. This scoring system robustly predicted OS of LuADC patients in 100 sampling test sets and was further validated in four independent LuADC cohorts. In addition, in comparison to other existing prognostic gene signatures published in the literature, our signature was significantly superior in predicting OS of LuADC patients. In summary, our multiomics and clinical data integration study created a 27-gene prognostic risk score that can predict OS of LuADC patients independent of age, gender and clinical stage. This score could guide therapeutic selection and allow stratification in clinical trials.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

FY2015 Annual Report for Alternative Fuels DISI Engine Research.

Climate change and the need to secure energy supplies are two reasons for a growing interest in engine efficiency and alternative fuels. This project contributes to the science-base needed by industry to develop highly efficient DISI engines that also beneficially exploit the different properties of alternative fuels. Our emphasis is on lean operation, which can provide higher efficiencies than traditional non-dilute stoichiometric operation. Since lean operation can lead to issues with ignition stability, slow flame propagation and low combustion efficiency, we focus on techniques that can overcome these challenges. Specifically, fuel stratification is used to ensure ignition and completeness of combustion but has soot- and NOx- emissions challenges. For ultralean well-mixed operation, turbulent deflagration can be combined with controlled end-gas auto-ignition to render mixed-mode combustion that facilitates high combustion efficiency. However, the response of both combustion and exhaust emissions to these techniques depends on the fuel properties. Therefore, to achieve optimal fuel-economy gains, the engine combustion-control strategies must be adapted to the fuel being utilized.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Integral Reactor Containment Condensation Model and Experimental Validation

This NEUP funded project, NEUP 12-3630, is for experimental, numerical and analytical studies on high-pressure steam condensation phenomena in a steel containment vessel connected to a water cooling tank, carried out at Oregon State University (OrSU) and the University of Wisconsin at Madison (UW-Madison). In the three years of investigation duration, following the original proposal, the planned tasks have been completed: (1) Performed a scaling study for the full pressure test facility applicable to the reference design for the condensation heat transfer process during design basis accidents (DBAs), modified the existing test facility to route the steady-state secondary steam flow into the high pressure containment for controllable condensation tests, and extended the operations at negative gage pressure conditions (OrSU). (2) Conducted a series of DBA and quasi-steady experiments using the full pressure test facility to provide a reliable high pressure condensation database (OrSU). (3) Analyzed experimental data and evaluated condensation model for the experimental conditions, and predicted the prototypic containment performance under accidental conditions (UW-Madison). A film flow model was developed for the scaling analysis, and the results suggest that the 1/3 scaled test facility covers large portion of laminar film flow, leading to a lower average heat transfer coefficient comparing to the prototypic value. Although it is conservative in reactor safety analysis, the significant reduction of heat transfer coefficient (50%) could under estimate the prototypic condensation heat transfer rate, resulting in inaccurate prediction of the decay heat removal capability. Further investigation is thus needed to quantify the scaling distortion for safety analysis code validation. Experimental investigations were performed in the existing MASLWR test facility at OrST with minor modifications. A total of 13 containment condensation tests were conducted for pressure ranging from 4 to 21 bar with three different static inventories of non-condensable gas. Condensation and heat transfer rates were evaluated employing several methods, notably from measured temperature gradients in the HTP as well as measured condensate formation rates. A detailed mass and energy accounting was used to assess the various measurement methods and to support simplifying assumptions required for the analysis. Condensation heat fluxes and heat transfer coefficients are calculated and presented as a function of pressure to satisfy the objectives of this investigation. The major conclusions for those tests are summarized below: (1) In the steam blow-down tests, the initial condensation heat transfer process involves the heating-up of the containment heat transfer plate. An inverse heat conduction model was developed to capture the rapid transient transfer characteristics, and the analysis method is applicable to SMR safety analysis. (2) The average condensation heat transfer coefficients for different pressure conditions and non-condensable gas mass fractions were obtained from the integral test facility, through the measurements of the heat conduction rate across the containment heat transfer plate, and from the water condensation rates measurement based on the total energy balance equation. 15 (3) The test results using the measured HTP wall temperatures are considerably lower than popular condensation models would predict mainly due to the side wall conduction effects in the existing MASLWR integral test facility. The data revealed the detailed heat transfer characteristics of the model containment, important to the SMR safety analysis and the validation of associated evaluation model. However this approach, unlike separate effect tests, cannot isolate the condensation heat transfer coefficient over the containment wall, and therefore is not suitable for the assessment of the condensation heat transfer coefficient against system pressure and noncondensable gas mass fraction. (4) The average condensation heat transfer coefficients measured from the water condensation rates through energy balance analysis are appropriate, however, with considerable uncertainties due to the heat loss and temperature distribution on the containment wall. With the consideration of the side wall conduction effects, the results indicate that the measured heat transfer coefficients in the tests is about 20% lower than the prediction of Dehbi’s correlation, mainly due to the side wall conduction effects. The investigation also indicates an increase in the condensation heat transfer coefficient at high containment pressure conditions, but the uncertainties invoked with this method appear to be substantial. (5) Non-condensable gas in the tests has little effects on the condensation heat transfer at high elevation measurement ports. It does affect the bottom measurements near the water level position. The results suggest that the heavier non-condensable gas is accumulated in the lower portion of the containment due to stratification in the narrow containment space. The overall effects of the non-condensable gas on the heat transfer process should thus be negligible for tall containments of narrow condensation spaces in most SMR designs. Therefore, the previous correlations with noncondensable gas effects are not appropriate to those small SMR containments due to the very poor mixing of steam and non-condensable gas. The MELCOR simulation results agree with the experimental data reasonably well. However, it is observed that the MELCOR overpredicts the heat flux for all analyzed tests. The MELCOR predicts that the heat fluxes for CCT’s approximately range from 30 to 45 kW/m2 whereas the experimental data (averaged) ranges from about 25 to 40 kW/m2. This may be due to the limited availability of liquid film models included in MELCOR. Also, it is believed that due to complex test geometry, measured temperature gradients across the heat transfer plate may have been underestimated and thus the heat flux had been underestimated. The MELCOR model predicts a film thickness on the order of 100 microns, which agrees very well with film flow model developed in this study for scaling analysis. However, the expected differences in film thicknesses for near vacuum and near atmospheric test conditions are not significant. Further study on the behavior of condensate film is expected to refine the simulation results. Possible refinements include but are not limited to, the followings: CFD simulation focusing on the liquid film behavior and benchmarking with experimental analyses for simpler geometries. 16 1 INTRODUCTION This NEUP funded project, NEUP 12-3630, is for experimental, numerical and analytical studies on high-pressure steam condensation phenomena in a steel containment vessel connected to a water cooling tank, carried out at Oregon State University (OrSU) and the University of Wisconsin at Madison (UW-Madison). The experimental results are employed to validate the containment condensation model in reactor containment system safety analysis code for integral SMRs. Such a containment condensation model is important to demonstrate the adequate cooling. In the three years of investigation, following the original proposal, the following planned tasks have been completed: (1) Performed a scaling study for the full pressure test facility applicable to the reference design for the condensation heat transfer process during design basis accidents (DBAs), modified the existing test facility to route the steady-state secondary steam flow into the high pressure containment for controllable condensation tests, and extended the operations at negative gage pressure conditions (OrSU). (2) Conducted a series of DBA and quasi-steady experiments using the full pressure test facility to provide a reliable high pressure condensation database (OrSU). (3) Analyzed experimental data and evaluated condensation model for the experimental conditions, and predicted the prototypic containment performance under accidental conditions (UW-Madison). The results are applicable to integral Small Modular Reactor (SMR) designs, including NuScale, mPower, Westinghouse SMR, Holtec-160 and other integral reactors with small containments of relatively high pressures under accidental conditions. Testing has been conducted at the OrSU laboratory in the existing MASLWR (Multi-Application Small Light Water Reactor) integral test facility sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Its highpressure stainless steel containment model (~2 MPa) is scaled to the NuScale SMR currently under development at NuScale Power, Inc.. Minor modifications to the model containment have been made to control the non-condensable gas fraction and to utilize the secondary loop stable steam flow for condensation testing. UW-Madison has developed a containment condensation model, which leveraged previous validated containment heat transfer work carried out at UW-Madison, and extended the range of applicability of the model to integral SMR designs that utilize containment vessels of high heat transfer efficiencies. In this final report, the research background and literature survey are presented in Chapter 2 and 3, respectively. The test facility description and modifications are summarized in Chapter 4, and the scaling analysis is introduced in Chapter 5. The tests description, procedures, and data analysis are presented in Chapter 6, while the numerical modeling is presented in Chapter 7, followed by a conclusion section in Chapter 8.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗