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DOE OSTI2025

GIScience in the era of Artificial Intelligence: a research agenda towards Autonomous GIS

The advent of generative AI exemplified by large language models (LLMs) opens new ways to represent and compute geographic information and transcends the process of geographic knowledge production, driving geographic information systems (GIS) towards autonomous GIS. Leveraging LLMs as the decision core, autonomous GIS can independently generate and execute geoprocessing workflows to perform spatial analysis. In this vision paper, we further elaborate on the concept of autonomous GIS and present a conceptual framework that defines its five autonomous goals, five levels of autonomy, five core functions, and three operational scales. We demonstrate how autonomous GIS could perform geospatial data retrieval, spatial analysis, and map making with four proof-of-concept GIS agents. We conclude by identifying critical challenges and future research directions, including fine-tuning and self-growing decision-cores, autonomous modelling, and examining the societal and practical implications of autonomous GIS. By establishing the groundwork for a paradigm shift in GIScience, this paper envisions a future where GIS moves beyond traditional workflows to autonomously reason, derive, innovate, and advance geospatial solutions to pressing global challenges. Meanwhile, we emphasize that as we design and deploy increasingly intelligent geospatial systems, we carry a responsibility to ensure they are developed in socially responsible ways, serve the public good, and support the continued value of human geographic insight in an AI-augmented future.

Autonomous GI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Light-Duty Vehicle Travel from Large-Scale Multimodal Wearable GPS Data with Novelty Detection Algorithms

Identifying travel mode within travel survey data sets, especially light-duty vehicle (LDV) travel, is foundational, though nontrivial, to travel behavior analysis and fuel consumption estimation. Current travel mode detection approaches require well-sampled and balanced data sets with ground truth travel mode labels. They are rarely applied and validated on large-scale, real-world data sets, which may not satisfy the data requirements. This paper proposes an LDV travel mode detection model as a supplement to current travel mode detection methods, for the case when the training set is highly (and/or completely) unbalanced, to the extent that classical machine-learning approaches become difficult or impossible to deploy. The proposed model uses a novelty detection technique-one-class support vector machines (OCSVMs)-and a novel exhaustive feature extraction (EFE) technique on continuous time series data (i.e., Global Positioning System [GPS] speed profiles) for single-mode trip trajectories. Training and validation of the model are conducted on a large-scale, real-world data set. The proposed method accurately identifies LDV trips from a broad set of multimodal trips by leveraging a wealth of preexisting in-vehicle GPS travel data. Additional sensitivity analysis sheds light on the optimal training size, which will benefit applications limited by highly imbalanced data. The paper also discusses performance comparison with regular machine-learning approaches, the model's robustness, and the potential to extend the proposed model to multimodal prediction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Light-Duty Vehicle Trip Classification Using One-Class Novelty Detection and Exhaustive Feature Extraction

Travel mode classification within travel survey data sets, especially light-duty vehicle (LDV) trips, is foundational, though nontrivial, to emerging mobility systems, travel behavior analysis, and fuel consumption estimation. Current travel mode detection approaches require well-sampled and balanced data sets with ground truth travel mode labels. The detection approaches are rarely applied and validated on large-scale, real-world data sets, which may not satisfy the dataset requirements. This work proposes an LDV trip detection model as a supplement to current travel mode detection methods, for the case when the training set is highly (and/or completely) unbalanced, to the extent that classical machine-learning approaches become difficult or impossible to deploy. The proposed model uses a novelty detection technique - one-class support vector machines (OCSVMs) - and a novel exhaustive feature extraction (EFE) technique on continuous time series data (i.e., Global Positioning System [GPS] speed profiles) for single-mode trip trajectories. Training and validation of the model are conducted on a large-scale, real-world data set. The proposed method accurately identifies LDV trips from a broad set of multimodal trips by leveraging a wealth of preexisting in-vehicle GPS travel data. Additional sensitivity analysis sheds light on the optimal training size and feature selection, which will benefit applications limited by highly imbalanced data. The paper also discusses performance comparison with regular machine-learning approaches, the model's robustness, and the potential to extend the proposed model to multi-modal trip prediction.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Active Time-Domain Reflectometry for Unattended Safeguards Systems FY15 Report

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to expand its use of unattended measurement systems. An increasing number of systems and an expanding family of instruments create challenges in terms of deployment efficiency and the implementation of data authentication measures. In collaboration with the IAEA, tamper-indicating measures to address data-transmission authentication challenges with unattended safeguards systems are under investigation. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is studying the viability of active time-domain reflectometry (TDR) along two parallel but interconnected paths: (1) swept-frequency TDR as the highly flexible, laboratory gold standard to which field-deployable options can be compared, and (2) a low-cost commercially available spread-spectrum TDR technology as one option for field implementation. This report describes PNNL’s FY15 progress in the viability study including: an overview of the TDR methods under investigation; description of the testing configurations and mock tampering scenarios; results from a preliminary sensitivity comparison of the two TDR methods; demonstration of a quantitative metric for estimating field performance that acknowledges the need for high detection probability while minimizing false alarms. FY15 progress reported here sets the stage for a rigorous comparison of the candidate TDR methods, over a range of deployment scenarios and perturbing effects typical of IAEA unattended monitoring systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2016

Active Time-Domain Reflectometry for Unattended Safeguards Systems: FY16 Report

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to expand its use of unattended measurement systems. An increasing number of systems and an expanding family of instruments create challenges in terms of deployment efficiency and the implementation of data authentication measures. Traditional data security measures, for example tamper-indicating (TI) conduit, are impractical for the long separation distances (often 100 meters or more) between unattended monitoring system (UMS) components. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is studying the viability of active time-domain reflectometry (TDR) for the detection of cable tampering in unattended radiation detection systems. The instrument concept under investigation would allow for unmanned cable integrity measurements, remote surveillance reporting and locating of cable faults and/or tampers. This report describes PNNL’s FY16 progress and includes: an overview of the TDR methods under investigation; description of the TDR evaluation testbed developed by PNNL; development and testing of advanced signal processing algorithms to extract weak signals from relatively high noise levels; and initial testing of a laboratory prototype intended for IAEA UMS applications and based on a commercially available TDR module. Preliminary viability findings and recommendations for the next stage of development and testing are provided.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS2004

Electrostatics of Granular Materials

The purpose of the research was to continue developing an understanding of electrostatic phenomena in preparation for any future flight opportunities of the EGM experiment, originally slated for a 2004 Space Station deployment. Work would be based on theoretical assessments, ground-based lab experiments, and reduced-gravity experiments. The ability to examine dipoles in the lab proved to be elusive, and thus, effort was concentrated on monopoles -how materials become charged, the fate of the charge, the role of material type, and so forth. Several significant milestones were achieved in this regard. In regard of the dipoles, experiments were designed in collaboration with the University of Chicago school district who had access to reduced gravity on the KC-135 aircraft. Two experiments were slated to fly last year but were cancelled after the Columbia accident. One of the experiments has been given a second life and will fly sometime in 2005 if the Shuttle flights resume. There remains active interest in the question of electrostatic dipoles within the educational community, and experiments using magnetic dipoles as a substitute are to be examined. The KC-135 experiments will also examine dispersion methods for particles as a verification of possible future techniques in microgravity. Both laboratory and theoretical work established a number of breakthroughs in our understanding of electrostatic phenomena. These breakthroughs are listed in this paper.

Marshall, John↗

NASA NTRS2010

Challenges to Computational Aerothermodynamic Simulation and Validation for Planetary Entry Vehicle Analysis

Challenges to computational aerothermodynamic (CA) simulation and validation of hypersonic flow over planetary entry vehicles are discussed. Entry, descent, and landing (EDL) of high mass to Mars is a significant driver of new simulation requirements. These requirements include simulation of large deployable, flexible structures and interactions with reaction control system (RCS) and retro-thruster jets. Simulation of radiation and ablation coupled to the flow solver continues to be a high priority for planetary entry analyses, especially for return to Earth and outer planet missions. Three research areas addressing these challenges are emphasized. The first addresses the need to obtain accurate heating on unstructured tetrahedral grid systems to take advantage of flexibility in grid generation and grid adaptation. A multi-dimensional inviscid flux reconstruction algorithm is defined that is oriented with local flow topology as opposed to grid. The second addresses coupling of radiation and ablation to the hypersonic flow solver - flight- and ground-based data are used to provide limited validation of these multi-physics simulations. The third addresses the challenges of retro-propulsion simulation and the criticality of grid adaptation in this application. The evolution of CA to become a tool for innovation of EDL systems requires a successful resolution of these challenges.

Gnoffo, Peter A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Challenges to Computational Aerothermodynamic Simulation and Validation for Planetary Entry Vehicle Analysis

Challenges to computational aerothermodynamic (CA) simulation and validation of hypersonic flow over planetary entry vehicles are discussed. Entry, descent, and landing (EDL) of high mass to Mars is a significant driver of new simulation requirements. These requirements include simulation of large deployable, flexible structures and interactions with reaction control system (RCS) and retro-thruster jets. Simulation of radiation and ablation coupled to the flow solver continues to be a high priority for planetary entry analyses, especially for return to Earth and outer planet missions. Three research areas addressing these challenges are emphasized. The first addresses the need to obtain accurate heating on unstructured tetrahedral grid systems to take advantage of flexibility in grid generation and grid adaptation. A multi-dimensional inviscid flux reconstruction algorithm is defined that is oriented with local flow topology as opposed to grid. The second addresses coupling of radiation and ablation to the hypersonic flow solver--flight- and ground-based data are used to provide limited validation of these multi-physics simulations. The third addresses the challenges of retro-propulsion simulation and the criticality of grid adaptation in this application. The evolution of CA to become a tool for innovation of EDL systems requires a successful resolution of these challenges.

Gnoffo, Peter A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Case for Hypogravity Studies Aboard ISS

Future human space exploration missions being contemplated by NASA and other spacefaring nations include some that would require long stays upon bodies having gravity levels much lower than that of Earth. While we have been able to quantify the physiological effects of sustained exposure to microgravity during various spaceflight programs over the past half-century, there has been no opportunity to study the physiological adaptations to gravity levels between zero-g and one-g. We know now that the microgravity environment of spaceflight drives adaptive responses of the bone, muscle, cardiovascular, and sensorimotor systems, causing bone demineralization, muscle atrophy, reduced aerobic capacity, motion sickness, and malcoordination. All of these outcomes can affect crew health and performance, particularly after return to a one-g environment. An important question for physicians, scientists, and mission designers planning human exploration missions to Mars (3/8 g), the Moon (1/6 g), or asteroids (likely negligible g) is: What protection can be expected from gravitational levels between zero-g and one-g? Will crewmembers deconditioned by six months of microgravity exposure on their way to Mars experience continued deconditioning on the Martian surface? Or, will the 3/8 g be sufficient to arrest or even reverse these adaptive changes? The implications for countermeasure deployment, habitat accommodations, and mission design warrant further investigation into the physiological responses to hypogravity. It is not possible to fully simulate hypogravity exposure on Earth for other than transient episodes (e.g., parabolic flight). However, it would be possible to do so in low Earth orbit (LEO) using the centrifugal forces produced in a live-aboard centrifuge. As we're not likely to launch a rotating human spacecraft into LEO anytime in the near future, we could take advantage of rodent subjects aboard the ISS if we had a centrifuge that could accommodate the rodent subjects for extended periods (weeks to months) at various hypogravity levels. Experiments aboard such a centrifuge could provide important insight into human exploration questions and simultaneously answer fundamental questions in gravitational physiology.

Paloski, William H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Foundational Methane Propulsion Related Technology Efforts, and Challenges for Applications to Human Exploration Beyond Earth Orbit

Current interest in human exploration beyond earth orbit is driving requirements for high performance, long duration space transportation capabilities. Continued advancement in photovoltaic power systems and investments in high performance electric propulsion promise to enable solar electric options for cargo delivery and pre-deployment of operational architecture elements. However, higher thrust options are required for human in-space transportation as well as planetary descent and ascent functions. While high thrust requirements for interplanetary transportation may be provided by chemical or nuclear thermal propulsion systems, planetary descent and ascent systems are limited to chemical solutions due to their higher thrust to weight and potential planetary protection concerns. Liquid hydrogen fueled systems provide high specific impulse, but pose challenges due to low propellant density and the thermal issues of long term propellant storage. Liquid methane fueled propulsion is a promising compromise with lower specific impulse, higher bulk propellant density and compatibility with proposed in-situ propellant production concepts. Additionally, some architecture studies have identified the potential for commonality between interplanetary and descent/ascent propulsion solutions using liquid methane (LCH4) and liquid oxygen (LOX) propellants. These commonalities may lead to reduced overall development costs and more affordable exploration architectures. With this increased interest, it is critical to understand the current state of LOX/LCH4 propulsion technology and the remaining challenges to its application to beyond earth orbit human exploration. This paper provides a survey of NASA's past and current methane propulsion related technology efforts, assesses the accomplishments to date, and examines the remaining risks associated with full scale development.

Brown, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2019

NASA’s In-Space Manufacturing Project: Update on Manufacturing Technologies and Materials to Enable More Sustainable and Safer Exploration

NASA’s In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) project seeks to develop the materials, processes, and manufacturing technologies needed to provide an on-demand manufacturing capability for deep space exploration missions. The ability to manufacture and recycle some parts on demand rather than launch them from earth has the potential to reduce logistics requirements on long duration missions and enhance crew safety. With the launch of the first 3D printer (built and operated by Made in Space through a Small Business Innovative Research – SBIR -- contract) to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2014, the ISM project demonstrated the feasibility of operating an on-demand manufacturing system in a microgravity environment. This paper will provide an update on recent advancements in ISM under three key technology areas: manufacturing, recycling, and development of a design database. ISM continues to pursue development of manufacturing technologies for space applications and use the ISS as a critical test bed to prove out these technologies before deploying them on next generation exploration systems. Activities under this focus area include: characterization of materials manufactured using the Additive Manufacturing Facility (AMF), the second generation commercial 3D-printer on ISS, also owned and operated by Made in Space; development of prototype payloads for metal manufacturing through phase II SBIR contracts with Tethers Unlimited, Made in Space, and Ultra Tech Machinery; development of a multi-material fabrication laboratory capable of processing metals and providing inspection of manufactured parts through a Broad Agency Announcement (Techshot, Interlog, and Tethers Unlimited); an in-line sensing system for ISM platforms; and development of higher strength feedstocks for 3D polymer printers. In the area of recycling, the Tethers Unlimited Refabricator payload (an integrated 3D printer and recycler for ULTEM 9085) launched to ISS in November 2018 and began operating in early 2019. This payload represents the first demonstration of on-orbit recycling; down massed specimens will assess material degradation in the polymer over multiple recycling cycles to define limits on material re-use. Other work in the recycling area includes development of common use materials intended to be reused and recycled on space missions (Tethers Unlimited and Cornerstone Research Group) and a sterilization capability for multiple-use materials (ERASMUS from Tethers Unlimited). Concurrent with manufacturing technology and materials development work is creation of a design database, a curated list of parts that can be manufactured using the suite of In-Space Manufacturing capabilities.

Tracie Prater↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Material Compatibility Study of Coated Metals to Maintain Biocidal Silver in a Spacecraft Potable Water System

Ionic silver-based biocide remains an option of choice for microbial control in spacecraft potable water systems. However, depletion of silver ions by wetted materials readily reduces ionic silver to nonbiocidal levels. This phenomenon occurs via various transport mechanisms at the liquid-solid interfaces between the silver-containing water and adjacent surfaces. Consequently, challenges remain in the design and/or selection of materials that can be used for the wetted system components that will help ensure silver is maintained at biocidal levels. Since silver has been baselined, and/or remains, as a potable water biocide option for several future spacecraft potable water systems, a multitiered approach is being investigated, looking at heritage materials, new processes, and/or alterative materials. This study conducted the application of eleven chemically-resistant coatings onto coupons that were cut out from three types of spacecraft-grade metals (Titanium Grade 2, Inconel 718, and 316L Stainless Steel) to investigate the performance of this material strategy as a barrier against silver depletion. In this investigation, the coated metals were immersed in a static 400 parts per billion silver biocide solution at a surface-area-to-volume ratio of 2.0 cm^(-1) and left to soak for predefined time periods. The concentration of the solution in contact with the coated samples was analyzed at various points via inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and the measurements were interpreted as silver retention percentages over time. This paper summarizes the coating selection process, the configuration of the test, and the performance of each coating-metal combination at diminishing silver depletion. The preliminary results demonstrate that some of the selected coatings succeeded at maintaining biocidal silver concentrations far beyond the corresponding base metal in a similar test. The knowledge acquired through this investigation supports the deploying of coatings on plumbing lines for the integration of biocidal silver in the water system architecture of a spacecraft. Nevertheless, further testing must be continued to assess the performance of these coatings on other wetted geometries and any implications of unifying this material strategy with traditional and developmental engineering design processes for spacecraft potable water systems.

water↗

DOE OSTI2016

2016 National Algal Biofuels Technology Review Fact Sheet

Algae-based biofuels and bioproducts offer great promise in contributing to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office’s (BETO’s) vision of a thriving and sustainable bioeconomy fueled by innovative technologies. The state of technology for producing algal biofuels continues to mature with ongoing investment by DOE and the private sector, but additional research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) is needed to achieve widespread deployment of affordable, scalable, and sustainable algal biofuels.

Algae Review Fact Sheet↗

DOE OSTI2015

Active Time Domain Reflectometry for Tamper Indication in Unattended Safeguards Systems

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to expand its use of unattended measurement systems. An increasing number of systems and an expanding family of instruments create challenges in terms of deployment efficiency and the implementation of data authentication measures. In collaboration with the IAEA, tamper-indicating measures to address data-transmission authentication challenges with unattended safeguards systems are under investigation. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is studying the viability of active time-domain reflectometry (TDR) along two parallel but interconnected paths: (1) swept-frequency TDR as the highly flexible, laboratory gold standard to which field-deployable options can be compared, and (2) a low-cost commercially available spread-spectrum TDR technology as one option for field implementation. This paper describes the TDR methods under investigation and the associated benchtop test-bed, tampering scenarios of interest,, and viability measurement results to date (e.g., comparison of relative sensitivity to tamper scenarios).

Sheen, David M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Self-Sustained CPS Design for Reliable Wildfire Monitoring

Continuous monitoring of areas nearby the electric grid is critical for preventing and early detection of devastating wildfires. Existing wildfire monitoring systems are intermittent and oblivious to local ambient risk factors, resulting in poor wildfire awareness. Ambient sensor suites deployed near the gridlines can increase the monitoring granularity and detection accuracy. However, these sensors must address two challenging and competing objectives at the same time. First, they must remain powered for years without manual maintenance due to their remote locations. Second, they must provide and transmit reliable information if and when a wildfire starts. The first objective requires aggressive energy savings and ambient energy harvesting, while the second requires continuous operation of a range of sensors. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first self-sustained cyber-physical system that dynamically co-optimizes the wildfire detection accuracy and active time of sensors. The proposed approach employs reinforcement learning to train a policy that controls the sensor operations as a function of the environment (i.e., current sensor readings), harvested energy, and battery level. Here, the proposed cyber-physical system is evaluated extensively using real-life temperature, wind, and solar energy harvesting datasets and an open-source wildfire simulator. In long-term (5 years) evaluations, the proposed framework achieves 89% uptime, which is 46% higher than a carefully tuned heuristic approach. At the same time, it averages a 2-minute initial response time, which is at least 2.5× faster than the same heuristic approach. Furthermore, the policy network consumes 0.6 mJ per day on the TI CC2652R microcontroller using TensorFlow Lite for Micro, which is negligible compared to the daily sensor suite energy consumption.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi - November 2022 Meeting Notes and Information Request Status

Information obtained from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi) is required to inform future Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This document summarizes results from the Fiscal Year 2023 (FY2023) U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Fukushima-related information and associated discussions during these meetings benefit operating, new, and advanced reactors. Significant safety insights have been and are continuing to be obtained in several areas: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Furthermore, Daiichi-related activities, such as code modeling improvements and analysis, testing, and new technology deployment efforts, have the potential to offer additional benefits to the operating fleet and new LWR and non-LWR designs. U.S. evaluations of obtained examination information and input regarding future Daiichi examinations are of interest to several organizations within Japan. Since its inception, the U.S. has provided consensus input for high priority time-sequenced examination tasks and supporting research activities. In their Mid-to-Long-term Examination Plan for 1F investigations, TEPCO included all remaining U.S. consensus information requests and additional information requests they identified. TEPCO periodically provides reports on the status of these requests (reflecting D&D priorities, new insights from investigations, and new technologies that become available). Hence, U.S. experts agreed that it was appropriate for TEPCO to track and prioritize these information requests as D&D progresses. U.S. experts will continue to review and comment on the information obtained from examinations and, as needed, provide additional details and relevant background material to support future examinations. As documented in this report, several other items, such as additional details on information requests pertaining to ex-vessel examinations, relevant references from prior research, additional documents to provide insights regarding recent investigation findings, and reviews of recently released documents, were agreed to during the FY2023 meeting.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Muon Borehole Detector Design for Use in 4-D Density Overburden Monitoring

The increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations has initiated research into carbon sequestration methods. One possibility is to store CO2 in subsurface porous reservoirs. The monitoring of the injected CO2 plume is vital because escaping CO2 poses health and environmental risks. Typically, seismic reflection methods are used to determine the change in density due to the replacement of brine by CO2 in the reservoir, but this is expensive and not continuous. A potential alternative is to use cosmic muon tomography to measure density changes in the reservoir as a function of time. This paper describes the development of a muon detector that will be capable of being deployed in boreholes. The detector has the required dimensions, an angular resolution of approximately 2 degrees, and is robust. The design is based on alternating layers of scintillating rods, which can provide 4-D tomographic data to detect small changes in density at depths up to approximately 2 km. Geant4, a Monte Carlo simulation code, is being used to develop models to guide the design of the physical configuration. Preliminary testing and measurements have been performed to validate the simulation predictions and optimize the performance of the system. The simulation and preliminary experimental results are presented here.

Borehole Detector, CO¬2 Sequestration, Geant4, Muo↗

DOE OSTI2014

Modelling the deployment of CO₂ storage in U.S. gas-bearing shales

The proliferation of commercial development in U.S. gas-bearing shales helped to drive a twelve-fold increase in domestic gas production between 2000 and 2010, and the nation's gas production rates continue to grow. While shales have long been regarded as a desirable caprock for CCS operations because of their low permeability and porosity, there is increasing interest in the feasibility of injecting CO₂ into shales to enhance methane recovery and augment CO₂ storage. Laboratory work published in recent years observes that shales with adsorbed methane appear to exhibit a stronger affinity for CO₂ adsorption, offering the potential to drive additional CH₄ recovery beyond primary production and perhaps the potential to store a larger volume of CO₂ than the volume of methane displaced. Recent research by the authors on the revenues associated with CO₂-enhanced gas recovery (CO₂-EGR) in gas-bearing shales estimates that, based on a range of EGR response rates, the average revenue per ton of CO₂ for projects managed over both EGR and subsequent storage-only phases could range from $0.50 to $18/tCO₂. While perhaps not as profitable as EOR, for regions where lower-cost storage options may be limited, shales could represent another “early opportunity” storage option if proven feasible for reliable EGR and CO₂ storage. Significant storage potential exists in gas shales, with theoretical CO₂ storage resources estimated at approximately 30-50 GtCO₂. However, an analysis of the comprehensive cost competitiveness of these various options is necessary to understand the degree to which they might meaningfully impact U.S. CCS deployment or costs. This preliminary analysis shows that the degree to which EGR-based CO₂ storage could play a role in commercial-scale deployment is heavily dependent upon the offsetting revenues associated with incremental recovery; modeling the low revenue case resulted in only five shale-based projects, while under the high revenue case, shales accounted for as much as 20 percent of total U.S. storage in the first 20 years of deployment. Interestingly, even in this highest revenue case, there appear to be no negative-cost projects that would be profitable in a no-policy environment as modeled under the assumptions employed. While this reflects a very first look at the potential for shales, it is clear that more laboratory and experimental work are needed to reduce uncertainty in key variables and begin to differentiate and identify high-potential shales for early pilot study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗