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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 775 records · Page 43

An SECM-Based Spot Analysis for Redoxmer-Electrode Kinetics: Identifying Redox Asymmetries on Model Graphitic Carbon Interfaces

The fundamental process in non-aqueous redox flow battery (NRFB) operation revolves around electron transfer (ET) between a current collector electrode and redox-active organic molecules (redoxmers) in solution. Here, we present an approach utilizing scanning electrochemical microscopy (SECM) to evaluate interfacial ET kinetics between redoxmers and various electrode materials of interest at desired locations. This spot-analysis method relies on the measurement of heterogeneous electron transfer rate constants (k f or k b ) as a function of applied potential (E-E 0 '). As demonstrated by COMSOL simulations, this method enables the quantification of Butler-Volmer kinetic parameters, the standard heterogeneous rate constant, k 0 , and the transfer coefficient, α. Our method enabled the identification of inherent asymmetries in the ET kinetics arising during the reduction of ferrocene-based redoxmers, compared to their oxidation which displayed faster rate constants. Similar behavior was observed on a wide variety of carbon electrodes such as multi-layer graphene, highly ordered pyrolytic graphite, glassy carbon, and chemical vapor deposition-grown graphite films. However, aqueous systems and Pt do not exhibit such kinetic effects. Our analysis suggests that differential adsorption of the redoxmers is insufficient to account for our observations. Displaying a greater versatility than conventional electroanalytical methods, we demonstrate the operation of our spot analysis at concentrations up to 100 mM of redoxmer over graphite films. Looking forward, our method can be used to assess non-idealities in a variety of redoxmer/electrode/solvent systems with quantitative evaluation of kinetics for applications in redox-flow battery research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Preconditioning for the Navier-Stokes equations with finite-rate chemistry

The extension of Van Leer's preconditioning procedure to generalized finite-rate chemistry is discussed. Application to viscous flow is begun with the proper preconditioning matrix for the one-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations. Eigenvalue stiffness is resolved and convergence-rate acceleration is demonstrated over the entire Mach-number range from nearly stagnant flow to hypersonic. Specific benefits are realized at the low and transonic flow speeds typical of complete propulsion-system simulations. The extended preconditioning matrix necessarily accounts for both thermal and chemical nonequilibrium. Numerical analysis reveals the possible theoretical improvements from using a preconditioner for all Mach number regimes. Numerical results confirm the expectations from the numerical analysis. Representative test cases include flows with previously troublesome embedded high-condition-number areas. Van Leer, Lee, and Roe recently developed an optimal, analytic preconditioning technique to reduce eigenvalue stiffness over the full Mach-number range. By multiplying the flux-balance residual with the preconditioning matrix, the acoustic wave speeds are scaled so that all waves propagate at the same rate, an essential property to eliminate inherent eigenvalue stiffness. This session discusses a synthesis of the thermochemical nonequilibrium flux-splitting developed by Grossman and Cinnella and the characteristic wave preconditioning of Van Leer into a powerful tool for implicitly solving two and three-dimensional flows with generalized finite-rate chemistry. For finite-rate chemistry, the state vector of unknowns is variable in length. Therefore, the preconditioning matrix extended to generalized finite-rate chemistry must accommodate a flexible system of moving waves. Fortunately, no new kind of wave appears in the system. The only existing waves are entropy and vorticity waves, which move with the fluid, and acoustic waves, which propagate in Mach number dependent directions. The nonequilibrium vibrational energies and species densities in the unknown state vector act strictly as convective waves. The essential concept for extending the preconditioning to generalized chemistry models is determining the differential variables which symmetrize the flux Jacobians. The extension is then straight-forward. This algorithm research effort will be released in a future version of the production level computational code coined the General Aerodynamic Simulation Program (GASP), developed by Walters, Slack, and McGrory.

Godfrey, Andrew G.↗

Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

MCKissick, Burnell T.↗

Physiological Based Simulator Fidelity Design Guidance

The evolution of the role of flight simulation has reinforced assumptions in aviation that the degree of realism in a simulation system directly correlates to the training benefit, i.e., more fidelity is always better. The construct of fidelity has several dimensions, including physical fidelity, functional fidelity, and cognitive fidelity. Interaction of different fidelity dimensions has an impact on trainee immersion, presence, and transfer of training. This paper discusses research results of a recent study that investigated if physiological-based methods could be used to determine the required level of simulator fidelity. Pilots performed a relatively complex flight task consisting of mission task elements of various levels of difficulty in a fixed base flight simulator and a real fighter jet trainer aircraft. Flight runs were performed using one forward visual channel of 40 deg. field of view for the lowest level of fidelity, 120 deg. field of view for the middle level of fidelity, and unrestricted field of view and full dynamic acceleration in the real airplane. Neuro-cognitive and physiological measures were collected under these conditions using the Cognitive Avionics Tool Set (CATS) and nonlinear closed form models for workload prediction were generated based on these data for the various mission task elements. One finding of the work described herein is that simple heart rate is a relatively good predictor of cognitive workload, even for short tasks with dynamic changes in cognitive loading. Additionally, we found that models that used a wide range of physiological and neuro-cognitive measures can further boost the accuracy of the workload prediction.

Schnell, Thomas↗

Error analysis of low-fidelity models for wake steering based on field measurements

The observations collected by two scanning lidars deployed on the roof of a 2.8-MW turbine undergoing a series of imposed yaw offsets are analyzed. The wake lateral displacement detected by the rear-facing lidar correlates well with the yaw offset sensed by the forward-facing lidar. We find that the high-frequency part of the yaw offset signal is connected to wake meandering, whereas the low frequency component is a good predictor for wake displacement due to yaw misalignment. Conditionally averaged wake velocity data for different yaw offsets are used as benchmarks for the validation of a linearized Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes and an empirical wake model. A mean error as low as 2% and a good prediction of the wake trajectory are achieved, provided that the wake recovery rate matches the observations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Noncausal telemetry data recovery techniques

Cost efficiency is becoming a major driver in future space missions. Because of the constraints on total cost, including design, implementation, and operation, future spacecraft are limited in terms of their size power and complexity. Consequently, it is expected that future missions will operate on marginal space-to-ground communication links that, in turn, can pose an additional risk on the successful scientific data return of these missions. For low data-rate and low downlink-margin missions, the buffering of the telemetry signal for further signal processing to improve data return is a possible strategy; it has been adopted for the Galileo S-band mission. This article describes techniques used for postprocessing of buffered telemetry signal segments (called gaps) to recover data lost during acquisition and resynchronization. Two methods, one for a closed-loop and the other one for an open-loop configuration, are discussed in this article. Both of them can be used in either forward or backward processing of signal segments, depending on where a gap is specifically situated in a pass.

Tsou, H.↗

Phase transition energetics-based mass loss modeling of chondritic Near Earth Objects

Mitigating potentially hazardous asteroids relies on accurate knowledge of their composition and critical physical characteristics such as shape and mass. Ground-based observatories and sample return missions in recent years have focused on such characterization to track Near Earth Objects. Historically, entry speeds of asteroids or mass change due to break-up/airburst have been considered in risk assessment studies as critical parameters. To this effect, most hydrocode simulations that consider energy deposition techniques rely on gross meteor modeling with simplistic spherical shapes while neglecting heat of ablation considerations. This is the general approach for fragment-cloud, pancake and hybrid fragmentation models. Alternatively, aerothermal fragmentation modeling that accounts for meteoritic shape change have typically focused on environmental modeling to understand break-up points primarily due to radiative heating. A physics-based risk assessment could benefit by modeling the environment and material response of typical meteoroidal materials as precursors to fragmentation. A greater focus on the material response to applied environmental heating will be emphasized here. This work presents a forward analysis of thermal and material response of stony meteorites by ac-counting for mass loss and shape change effects through a boundary layer formalism. This allows for simulations starting from simplistic shapes that could eventually lead to alterations in contours due to ablation. These effects would be characterized through phase transitions of the surface, such as melting and vaporization, in response to aerodynamic heating. Coupled ablation and radiative heating effects have been found to lead to reduced heat transfer coefficients in the computation of meteor mass loss rates. This has the potential to increase ground damage footprints for hazardous impacts. The effort here quantifies the heat transfer coefficient by accounting for ablation assisted by phase transition. The melt and vaporization mediated ablation of chondritic meteors provides essential recession estimates based upon surface environments. The altered mass due to such phenomena would be presented for a H-chondrite meteoritic sample.

Pratibha Raghunandan↗

Refining a Novel Process Monitoring Method to Safeguard Continuously Cycling Designs Using Isotopic Ratios

In advanced reactor (AR) designs, a common feature is continuous chemical processing and circulation of the nuclear material. This work bridges a significant measurement gap in safeguarding reactors with circulating fuel or continuous refueling by leveraging and building on the isotope ratio method first developed by our team under an FY21 Advanced Reactors International Safeguards Engagement (ARISE) project (Uribe et al. 2021). In circulating fuel designs, the radioisotope inventory changes from traditional effects (e.g., radioactive decay, fission) but also includes material transport due to pressure and temperature gradients. Such designs may also require regular or continuous additions or removals during operation, which significantly increases the rate of inventory change compared to traditional pressurized water reactor (PWR)s. Thus, directly tracking the nuclear inventory is ineffective since the isotopes are continuously added and removed. The isotope ratio method instead focuses on detecting changes to the input and output flows of radioisotopes. Previous work showed that for well-chosen pairs of isotopes, the isotopic ratio provides a sensitive and lasting indicator of deviation from normal conditions (e.g., startup, shutdown, diversion). The isotope ratio method is a process monitoring method with potential for application in for forward-looking approaches to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. The original process monitoring method was developed for a specific case—the decay tank of a thorium-fueled molten salt breeder reactor. In this expanded work, we explored other types of reactors and processes with nonstationary (e.g., flowing) nuclear material, which are difficult to safeguard with traditional methods because of the transient nature of the systems. The goal of the present work is to generalize the isotope ratio method for use in processes with continuously flowing nuclear material. All continuous processes have an average time for isotopes to be replaced in the system. The isotope ratio method works by choosing radioisotopes with half-lives both above and below the processing time. The present work seeks to explore which isotopes are suitable for the method by simulating the nuclear inventory, radioisotope emissions, and detector responses for several classes of advanced reactors. While the method can in principle be applied to other processes (e.g., enrichment or reprocessing facilities), the present work limits scope to ARs with continuously flowing fuel. Section 2 details the mathematics supporting the isotope ratio method, and Section 3 introduces the representative ARs selected for this work. Section 4 discusses how each reactor was analyzed, and Section 5 showcases the results for each representative reactor. Finally, Section 6 provides concluding remarks and suggests pathways for further analysis.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Particle acceleration due to shocks in the interplanetary field: High time resolution data and simulation results

Data were examined from two experiments aboard the Explorer 50 (IMP 8) spacecraft. The Johns Hopkins University/Applied Lab Charged Particle Measurement Experiment (CPME) provides 10.12 second resolution ion and electron count rates as well as 5.5 minute or longer averages of the same, with data sampled in the ecliptic plane. The high time resolution of the data allows for an explicit, point by point, merging of the magnetic field and particle data and thus a close examination of the pre- and post-shock conditions and particle fluxes associated with large angle oblique shocks in the interplanetary field. A computer simulation has been developed wherein sample particle trajectories, taken from observed fluxes, are allowed to interact with a planar shock either forward or backward in time. One event, the 1974 Day 312 shock, is examined in detail.

Kessel, R. L.↗

An Assessment of the Ozone Loss During the 1999-2000 SOLVE Arctic Campaign

Ozone observations from ozonesondes, the lidars aboard the DC-8, in situ ozone measurements from the ER-2, and satellite ozone measurements from Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement III (POAM) were used to assess ozone loss during the Sage III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) 1999-2000 Arctic campaign. Two methods of analysis were used. In the first method a simple regression analysis is performed on the ozonesonde and POAM measurements within the vortex. In the second method, the ozone measurements from all available ozone data were injected into a free running diabatic trajectory model and carried forward in time from December 1 to March 15. Vortex ozone loss was then estimated by comparing the ozone values of those parcels initiated early in the campaign with those parcels injected later in the campaign. Despite the variety of observational techniques used during SOLVE, the measurements provide a fairly consistent picture. Over the whole vortex, the largest ozone loss occurs between 550 and 400 K potential temperatures (approximately 23-16 km) with over 1.5 ppmv lost by March 15, the end of the SOLVE mission period. An ozone loss rate of 0.04-0.05 ppmv/day was computed for March 15. Ozonesondes launched after March 15 suggest that an additional 0.5 ppmv or more ozone was lost between March 15 and April 1. The small disagreement between ozonesonde and POAM analysis of January ozone loss is found to be due to biases in vortex sampling. POAM makes most of its solar occultation measurements at the vortex edge during January 2000 which bias samples toward air parcels that have been exposed to sunlight and likely do experience ozone loss. Ozonesonde measurements and the trajectory technique use observations that are more distributed within the interior of the vortex. Thus the regression analysis of the POAM measurements tends to overestimate mid-winter vortex ozone loss. Finally, our loss calculations are broadly consistent with other loss computations using ER-2 tracer data and MLS satellite data, but we find no evidence for the 1992 high mid-January loss reported using the Match technique.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗

Colonoscopy Screening in the US Astronaut Corps

BACKGROUND: Historically, colonoscopy screenings for astronauts have been conducted to ensure that astronauts are in good health for space missions. Recently this historical data has been identified as being useful for developing an occupational surveillance requirement. It can be used to assess overall colon health and to have a point of reference for future tests in current and former astronauts, as well as to follow-up and track rates of colorectal cancer and polyps. These rates can be compared to military and other terrestrial populations. In 2003, the active astronaut colonoscopy requirements changed to require less frequent colonoscopies. Since polyp removal during a colonoscopy is an intervention that prevents the polyp from potentially developing into cancer, the procedure decreases the individual's risk for colon cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the possible effect of increased follow-up times between colonoscopies on the number and severity of polyps identified during the procedures among both current and former NASA astronauts. Initial results and forward work regarding astronaut colonoscopy screenings will be presented. METHODS: A retrospective study of all colonoscopy procedures performed on NASA astronauts between 1962 and 2015 (both during active career and retirement) was conducted by review of the JSC Clinic Electronic Medical Record and Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) database for colonoscopy screening procedures and pathology reports. The timeframe of interest was from the time of selection into the Astronaut Corps through May 2015 or death. For each colonoscopy report, the following data were captured: date of procedure, age at time of procedure, reason for procedure, quality of bowel prep, completion of procedure and/or reason for termination of procedure, findings of procedure, subsequent treatment (if any), recommended follow-up interval, actual follow up interval, family history of polyps or colon cancer, and other significant items or discrepancies. The population consisted of 338 astronauts: 52 females, 286 males. Of these, 56 were deceased, and 11 astronauts had no record of any colonoscopies. Because of a screening requirement change in 2003, analyses were conducted to determine if there were differences between the two time periods. One-sided Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used to identify statistically significant differences between the two time periods. RESULTS: There was a combined total of 1,964 colonoscopy screenings identified. The average follow-up intervals between colonoscopies were indeed longer after the screening requirement change than before the change. The mean follow-up interval pre -2003 was 3.59 years, while post-2003 it increased to 4.35 years. The statistical significance of this difference was confirmed using a one sided Wilcoxon rank sum test which yielded p<.001. Colonoscopies performed after the requirement change tended to have a higher incidence and greater severity of polyps. From pre-2003 to post-2003 the percentage of colonoscopy procedures yielding no polyps decreased from 83.77% to 74.70%. Not only did post-2003 procedures yield more polyp findings, but the polyps recorded were more often of severe pathology. Before 2003 3.62% of colonoscopy findings were polyps of the hyperplastic type (the least severe polyp type) and only 3.35% were of greater severity. Post-2003, 4.21% of findings were hyperplastic polyps while 11.44% were of greater severity. Upon the investigation of other possible contributing factors to these results, we also found that mean age post-2003 was 54.55 years which was significantly higher than during the pre-2003 timeframe (47.32 years). This was observed with a one-sided Wilcoxon rank sum test, resulting in a p<0.001. The increased average age of astronauts could also be a contributing factor to the greater number of polyps found since the risk of developing polyps increases with age. Further work is needed to better understand the increased incidence and greater severity of polyps found in astronaut colonoscopy outcomes.

Masterova, K.↗

The Design of a Flexible, Interoperable Navigation Signal for Future Lunar Missions

The LunaNet Interoperability Specification (LNIS) is a set of standards currently under development by NASA, ESA, and JAXA, which define a common, interoperable set of services and interfaces for lunar communication and navigation. The LNIS includes specifications for the GNSS-like Augmented Forward Signal (AFS). The LANS (Lunar Augmented Navigation Service) will be comprised of Multiple LunaNet Service Provider (LNSP) nodes broadcasting the AFS, such as NASA’s LCRNS (Lunar Communications Relay and Navigation Systems), ESA’s Moonlight LCNS (Lunar Communication and Navigation Services) and the Japan LNSS (Lunar Navigation Satellite System). The LANS will provide a GNSS-like capability enabling orbiting and surface users in lunar space (such as Artemis) to estimate their position, velocity and time as described in Giordano et al., (2023). Initial capabilities will focus on providing service to the lunar South pole region. The specification of AFS defines two orthogonal signal components on a single carrier, with the in-phase component (AFS-I) being a lower-chip-rate data channel tailored for applications where low SWaP is critical (e.g., IoT devices or search and rescue), and the quadrature component (AFS-Q) being a high-chip-rate data-less pilot signal for high-precision, robust lunar navigation and positioning applications. An initial description of AFS was provided in the LNIS, (2023), and initial analysis results were shown in Dafesh, et al., (2024). In this work, we provide rationale for updates to the LNIS that define key aspects of the signal including the primary spreading code designs for the data and pilot channels, and a three-tiered overlay code approach for the pilot channel that provides flexible signal acquisition alternatives, rapid time dissemination and robust frame Sync. The paper also describes a robust data sync word that is designed to enable frame Sync. for low-SWaP receivers that only use the I channel, as well as a low-density parity check code (LDPC) data message encoding design and interleaving definition. The work further describes the impact of the updated AFS design in terms of improved acquisition performance, interference resistance, navigation message capabilities and rapid absolute time dissemination for users able to access clock and ephemeris data over an external network. The cross-correlation and synchronization performance of the AFS design is also compared to potential alternatives, further providing rationale for the final signal design configuration.

LunaNet↗

Why does the earth spin forward?

The spins of the terrestrial planets likely arose as the planets formed by the accretion of planetesimals. Depending on the masses of the impactors, the planet's final spin can either be imparted by many small bodies (ordered accretion), in which case the spin is determined by the mean angular momentum of the impactors, or by a few large bodies (stochastic accretion), in which case the spin is a random variable whose distribution is determined by the rms angular momentum of the impactors. In the case of ordered accretion, the planet's obliquity is expected to be near 0 or 180 deg, whereas, if accretion is stochastic, there should be a wide range of obliquities. Analytic arguments and extensive orbital integrations are used to calculate the expected distributions of spin rate and obliquity as a function of the planetesinal mass and velocity distributions. The results imply that the spins of the terrestrial planets are determined by stochastic accretion.

Dones, Luke↗

Molecular Cooling as a Probe of Star Formation: Spitzer Looking Forward to Herschel

We explore here the question of how cloud physics can be more directly probed when one observes the majority of cooling emissions from molecular gas. For this purpose we use results from a recent Spitzer Space Telescope study of the young cluster of embedded objects in NGC1333. For this study we mapped the emission from eight pure H2 rotational lines, from S(0) to S(7). The H2 emission appears to be associated with the warm gas shocked by the multiple outflows present in the region. The H2 lines are found to contribute to 25 - 50% of the total outflow luminosity, and can be used to more directly ascertain the importance of star formation feedback on the natal cloud. From these lines, we determine the outflow mass loss rate and, indirectly, the stellar infall rate, the outflow momentum and the kinetic energy injected into the cloud over the embedded phase. The latter is found to exceed the binding energy of individual cores, suggesting that outflows could be the main mechanism for cores disruption. Given the recent launch of Herschel and the upcoming operational lifetime of SOFIA we discuss how studies of molecular cooling can take a step beyond understanding thermal balance to exploring the origin, receipt, and transfer of energy in atomic and molecular gas in a wide range of physical situations.

Bergin, Edwin A.↗

The Design of a Flexible, Interoperable Navigation Signal for Future Lunar Missions

The LunaNet Interoperability Specification (LNIS) is a set of standards currently under development by NASA, ESA, and JAXA, which define a common, interoperable set of services and interfaces for lunar communication and navigation. The LNIS includes specifications for the GNSS-like Augmented Forward Signal (AFS). The LANS (Lunar Augmented Navigation Service) will be comprised of Multiple LunaNet Service Provider (LNSP) nodes broadcasting the AFS, such as NASA’s LCRNS (Lunar Communications Relay and Navigation Systems), ESA’s Moonlight LCNS (Lunar Communication and Navigation Services) and the Japan LNSS (Lunar Navigation Satellite System). The LANS will provide a GNSS-like capability enabling orbiting and surface users in lunar space (such as Artemis) to estimate their position, velocity and time as described in Giordano et al., (2023). Initial capabilities will focus on providing service to the lunar South pole region. The specification of AFS defines two orthogonal signal components on a single carrier, with the in-phase component (AFS-I) being a lower-chip-rate data channel tailored for applications where low SWaP is critical (e.g., IoT devices or search and rescue), and the quadrature component (AFS-Q) being a high-chip-rate data-less pilot signal for high-precision, robust lunar navigation and positioning applications. An initial description of AFS was provided in the LNIS, (2023), and initial analysis results were shown in Dafesh, et al., (2024). In this work, we provide rationale for updates to the LNIS that define key aspects of the signal including the primary spreading code designs for the data and pilot channels, and a three-tiered overlay code approach for the pilot channel that provides flexible signal acquisition alternatives, rapid time dissemination and robust frame Sync. The paper also describes a robust data sync word that is designed to enable frame Sync. for low-SWaP receivers that only use the I channel, as well as a low-density parity check code (LDPC) data message encoding design and interleaving definition. The work further describes the impact of the updated AFS design in terms of improved acquisition performance, interference resistance, navigation message capabilities and rapid absolute time dissemination for users able to access clock and ephemeris data over an external network. The cross-correlation and synchronization performance of the AFS design is also compared to potential alternatives, further providing rationale for the final signal design configuration.

LANS↗

Constitutive Model Development for Aging Polymer Encapsulants (ASC P&EM FY2021 L2 Milestone 7836)

This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design of a bleed system for a Mach 3.5 inlet

An analytical bleed system design procedure is applied to a Mach 3.5, axisymmetric, translating centerbody inlet. The design features a traveling centerbody bleed system with a ducting arrangement separating low-, medium-, and high-pressure bleed. Three forward plenums and nine throat plenums are installed on the centerbody to meet the bleed requirements in the started Mach range between 1.6 and 3.5. The cowl contains four stationary plenums, three for forward and one for throat bleed. To achieve maximum bleed plenum pressure and thereby minimize bleed drag all bleed holes are inclined 20 deg to the surface except in the cowl throat region. Here the requirement of high stability margin with minimum total pressure recovery penalty resulted in 90 deg bleed holes. The bleed hole diameter varies from bleed plenum to bleed plenum to achieve the most efficient boundary layer control, while the bleed exits are sized to operate at the highest possible plenum pressure without unchoking the bleed holes. Bleed flow rates, bleed plenum pressures, and boundary layer development along the cowl and centerbody are predicted over the entire started Mach range.

Syberg, J.↗

Can We Model Forest Demography Globally? Benchmarking of State-of-the-Art Demographic DGVMs

Forests in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) have historically been simulated as area-averaged plant functional types in each gridcell instead of representing communities of trees of different sizes and ages (demography). Just as the behaviour of a tree differs according to its ontogeny, so the behaviour of forests is known to differ depending on their demography. Accurately simulating demography is therefore key in order to address questions on afforestation and management strategies, as well as assessments of resilience of forests to disturbances such as drought and fire or diversity changes after a disturbance. Ultimately, demography determines the overall forest biomass in natural forests and is a key arbiter of growth and mortality rates. DGVMs are now able to simulate size and age structure of the trees in forests. However, these models have so far not been benchmarked alongside each other. We evaluate 6 DGVMs (BiomeE, CABLE-POP, FATES, LPJ-GUESS, JULES-RED, ORCHIDEE) against observations on regrowth dynamics as well as natural forests at boreal, temperate and tropical sites. We examine whether the models capture observed regrowth dynamics after disturbance, well-known stand size structure and well-established processes such as self-thinning. We outline the planned route forward towards a standardised international benchmarking framework for demographic DGVMs.

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models↗