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Results for “model structure uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Robust tracking of a flexible spacecraft subject to induced disturbances and parametric uncertainties

A variable structure control technique combined with an operator spline for bilinear systems is implemented to a fast moving deformable structure for purposes of achieving robust tracking performance. The control torque applied to the structure is based on estimates of the structure parameters and on upper bounds of the model errors. For a rapid rotation of the deformable structure, the elastic response can be modeled by oscillators driven by angular acceleration, where stiffness and damping coefficients are also angular velocity and acceleration dependent. By transforming this 'slew-driven' elastic dynamics into a bilinear form, an operator spline can be constructed, that gives a low order estimate of the induced disturbance. An upper bound between the estimated deformation and the unknown exact deformation is also generated, which can be used where required in the sliding control correction.

Karray, Fakhreddine↗
NASA NTRS2011

Stratospheric Collection of Dust from Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3

Interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) collected in the stratosphere are unique materials that are compositionally distinct from meteorites. Astronomical observations and dynamical models indicate that both asteroids and short-period comets are significant sources of IDPs. IDPs having fragile, porous structures, unequilibrated, anhydrous mineralogy, and high atmospheric entry velocities are thought to derive from comets, whereas asteroidal IDPs are identified by their compact structure, hydrated mineralogy and low atmospheric entry velocities. Uncertainty remains in the classification of asteroidal and cometary IDPs owing to our limited sampling of comets and the asteroid belt and the complex dynamical histories of most IDPs in space. Most IDPs spend thousands of years in space prior to being accreted by the Earth. During this time, dust particles undergo orbital evolution, including gradual reduction in their perihelion and eccentricity as a result of Poynting-Robertson drag. Planetary encounters may also significantly change their orbital parameters. Consequently, it is generally not possible to identify the specific parent body of a given IDP. However, it has been proposed that it is possible to identify dust from comets that have formed Earth-crossing dust trails. In this case, the dust particles have been in space for such a short period of time (a few decades or less) that their orbits have not significantly changed. Furthermore, these fresh IDPs could be identified in the laboratory from their short space-exposure histories (low solar noble gas abundance and lack of solar flare tracks). NASA flew several dedicated IDP collection missions attempting to collect dust from comet 26P/Grigg-Skjellerup, the best candidate identified. Remarkably, many particles from those collectors exhibit unusual properties, including low abundances of solar noble gases and high abundances of presolar grains. These observations are consistent with the dust particles originating from comet Grigg-Skjellerup (hereafter G-S). This study considers the prospects for collection of dust from comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 (hereafter SW3). SW3 is a small (2 km diameter) Jupiter family comet whose perihelion is close to and just inside the Earth's orbit. The orbit of SW3 is suitable for producing a low-velocity Earth-crossing dust stream and is the likely parent of the Tau Herculid meteor stream. This study complements a previously published model of the SW3 meteor stream that predicted a very low level of activity for grains 100 micron -- 100 mm in size.

Messenger, Scott R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Superallowed Nuclear Beta Decays and Precision Tests of the Standard Model

For many decades, the main source of information on the top-left corner element of the Cabibbo–Kobayashi–Maskawa quark mixing matrix, V ud , was superallowed nuclear β decays with an impressive 0.01% precision. This precision, apart from experimental data, relies on theoretical calculations in which nuclear structure–dependent effects and uncertainties play a prime role. This review is dedicated to a thorough reassessment of all ingredients that enter the extraction of the value of V ud from experimental data. We try to keep balance between historical retrospect and new developments, many of which occurred in just the past 5 years. They have not yet been reviewed in a complete manner, not least because new results are forthcoming. This review aims to fill this gap and offers an in-depth yet accessible summary of all recent developments.

ab initio methods↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sources of Uncertainty in Ultrasonic Phase-Based Assessment of Interfacial Stiffness in Adhesive Joints

Quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of adhesive joint strength is critical for certifying fastener-free bonded aerospace structures. Unfortunately, available adhesive NDE approaches are only suitable for detecting gross defects and delamination and cannot reliably detect variations in strength in intact bonds. Intact (i.e., nominally defect free) bonds are challenging to inspect because they, by definition, contain no macroscopic defects that would produce a strong NDE signature. Even in the absence of obvious defects, however, bond strength can vary substantially due to factors such as contamination, variations in the adhesive cure processes, and environmental exposure. For ultrasonic bond inspections, the effect of interactions from an imperfect adhesive interface are subtle and may include changes in the frequency content or phase of the ultrasonic signal. The bond condition can be deduced from these subtle changes in the acoustic response using an accompanying physics-based model of adhesive joint interaction. For example, researchers have used the spring network adhesion model of Baik and Thompson [1] to determine the interfacial stiffness of the joint from its ultrasonic response (e.g., [2]). This interfacial stiffness metric describes the bonds resistance to separation between the adhesive and adherent and has shown a strong correlation with joint strength. In this study, interfacial stiffness is assessed using the ultrasonic phase change associated with bond interaction in varying bond conditions. The phase change is measured precisely using a phase-locked-loop instrument over a swept range of frequencies. The phase transition at resonance, where the bond thickness is half the acoustic wavelength, produces a unique signature with which to fit a physics-based model. Interfacial stiffness is determined by minimizing the difference between the theoretical and experimental phase response. Experimental results are presented for glass specimens bonded with aerospace adhesives and a sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the effects of parameters that may be uncertain in the industrial inspection environment – namely bond thickness, adhesive and adherent properties, and porosity. The results are a first step toward an uncertainty quantified version of the measurement technique, show correlation between interfacial stiffness and bond strength, and are another key step toward maturing this approach for use in complex materials and joint geometries. [1] Baik, J.M. and Thompson, R.B., 1984. “Ultrasonic scattering from imperfect interfaces: a quasi-static model”. Journal of Nondestructive Evaluation, 4. [2] Haldren, H.A., Perey, D.F., Yost, W.T., Cramer, K.E., and Gupta, M.C., 2019. “Swept-frequency ultrasonic phase evaluation of adhesive bonding in tri-layer structures”. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 145.

Matt Webster↗
DOE OSTI2022

Angular systematics-free cosmological analysis of galaxy clustering in configuration space

ABSTRACT Galaxy redshift surveys are subject to incompleteness and inhomogeneous sampling due to the various constraints inherent to spectroscopic observations. This can introduce systematic errors on the summary statistics of interest, which need to be mitigated in cosmological analysis to achieve high accuracy. Standard practices involve applying weighting schemes based on completeness estimates across the survey footprint, possibly supplemented with additional weighting schemes accounting for density-dependent effects. In this work, we concentrate on pure angular systematics and describe an alternative approach consisting in analysing the galaxy two-point correlation function where angular modes are nulled. By construction, this procedure removes all possible known and unknown sources of angular observational systematics, but also part of the cosmological signal. We use a modified Landy–Szalay estimator for the two-point correlation function that relies on an additional random catalogue where angular positions are randomly drawn from the galaxy catalogue, and provide an analytical model to describe this modified statistic. We test the model by performing an analysis of the full anisotropic clustering in mock catalogues of luminous red and emission-line galaxies at 0.43 < z < 1.1. We find that the model fully accounts for the modified correlation function in redshift space, without introducing new nuisance parameters. The derived cosmological parameters from the analysis of baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions display slightly larger statistical uncertainties, mostly for the growth rate of structure parameter fσ8 that exhibits a $50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ statistical error increase, but free from angular systematic error.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental determination of the solubility constant of kurnakovite, MgB3O3(OH)5·5H2O

In this study, I present experimental results on the equilibrium between boracite [Mg 3 B 7 O 13 C1(cr)] and kurnakovite [chemical formula, Mg 2 B 6 O 11 ·15H 2 O(cr); structural formula, MgB 3 O 3 (OH) 5 ·5H 2 O(cr)] at 22.5 ± 0.5 °C from a long-term experiment up to 1629 days, approaching equilibrium from the direction of supersaturation, Mg 3 B 7 O 13 C1(cr) + H + + 2B(OH)$^-_4$ + 18H 2 O(1) ⇌ 3MgB 3 O 3 (OH) 5 ·5H 2 O(cr) + C1 - . Based on solubility measurements, the 10-based logarithm of the equilibrium constant for the above reaction at 25 °C is determined to be 12.83 ± 0.08 (2σ). Based on the equilibrium constant for dissolution of boracite, Mg 3 B 7 O 13 C1(cr) + 15H 2 O(1) = 3Mg 2+ + 7B(OH)$^-_4$ + C1 - + 2H + at 25 °C measured previously (Xiong et al. 2018) and that for the reaction between boracite and kurnakovite determined here, the equilibrium constant for dissolution of kurnakovite, MgB 3 O 3 (OH) 5 ·5H 2 O(cr) = Mg 2+ + 3B(OH)$^-_4$ + H + + H 2 O(1) is derived as -14.11 ± 0.40 (2σ). Using the equilibrium constant for dissolution of kurnakovite obtained in this study and the experimental enthalpy of formation for kurnakovite from the literature, a set of thermodynamic properties for kurnakovite at 25 °C and 1 bar is recommended as follows: Δ H $^0_f$ = -4813.24 ± 4.92 kJ/mol, Δ G$^0_f$ = -4232.0 ± 2.3 kJ/mol, and S 0 = 414.3 ± 0.9 J/(mol·K). Among them, the Gibbs energy of formation is based on the equilibrium constant for kurnakovite determined in this study; the enthalpy of formation is from the literature (Li et al. 1997), and the standard entropy is calculated internally with the Gibbs-Helmholtz equation in this work. The thermodynamic properties of kurnakovite estimated using the group contribution method for borate minerals based on the sums of contributions from the cations, borate polyanions, and structural water to the thermodynamic properties from the literature (Li et al. 2000) are consistent, within their uncertainties, with the values listed above. Since kurnakovite usually forms in salt lakes rich in sulfate, studying the interactions of borate with sulfate is important to modeling kurnakovite in salt lakes. Finally, for this purpose, I have re-calibrated our previous model (Xiong et al. 2013) describing the interactions of borate with sulfate based on the new solubility data for borax in Na 2 SO 4 solutions presented here.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1987

Integrated analysis and applications

A select overview is provided of ongoing research focusing on the development and verification of integrated structural analysis and optimal design capabilities for advanced aerospace propulsion and power systems. Subjects discussed include the following: (1) Composites - analytical models (composite mechanics), integrated computational methods, and characterization of composite structural response and durability for resin-, metal-, and ceramic-matrix systems; (2) Advanced inelastic analysis - algorithm/numerical methods for more accurate and efficient analysis; (3) Constitutive modeling - theoretical formulation and characterization of thermoviscoplastic material behavior; (4) Computational simulation - engine structures from components to assembly, and up to an entire engine system subjected to simulated test-stand and mission load histories; (5) Probabilistic structural analysis - quantification of the effects of uncertainty in geometry, material, loads, and boundary conditions on structural response for true reliability assessment; and (6) Interdisciplinary optimization - incorporation of mathematical optimization and multidisciplinary analyses to provide streamlined, autonomous optimal design systems.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Telerobotic control of a mobile coordinated robotic server

Results from the Master's Degree Thesis of Mr. Robert Stanley, a graduate student supervised by the principal investigator on this project is reported. The goal of this effort is to develop advanced control methods for flexible space manipulator systems. As such, a fuzzy logic controller has been developed in which model structure as well as parameter constraints are not required for compensation. A general rule base is formulated using quantized linguistic terms; it is then augmented to a traditional integral control. The resulting hybrid fuzzy controller stabilizes the structure over a broad range of uncertainties, including unknown initial conditions. An off-line tuning approach using phase portraits gives further insight into the algorithm. The approach was applied to a three-degree-of-freedom manipulator system - the prototype of the coordinated flexible manipulator system currently being designed and built at North Carolina State University.

Lee, Gordon↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

OC6 Phase II: Integration and verification of a new soil–structure interaction model for offshore wind design

Abstract This paper provides a summary of the work done within the OC6 Phase II project, which was focused on the implementation and verification of an advanced soil–structure interaction model for offshore wind system design and analysis. The soil–structure interaction model comes from the REDWIN project and uses an elastoplastic, macroelement model with kinematic hardening, which captures the stiffness and damping characteristics of offshore wind foundations more accurately than more traditional and simplified soil–structure interaction modeling approaches. Participants in the OC6 project integrated this macroelement capability to coupled aero‐hydro‐servo‐elastic offshore wind turbine modeling tools and verified the implementation by comparing simulation results across the modeling tools for an example monopile design. The simulation results were also compared to more traditional soil–structure interaction modeling approaches like apparent fixity, coupled springs, and distributed springs models. The macroelement approach resulted in smaller overall loading in the system due to both shifts in the system frequencies and increased energy dissipation. No validation work was performed, but the macroelement approach has shown increased accuracy within the REDWIN project, resulting in decreased uncertainty in the design. For the monopile design investigated here, that implies a less conservative and thus more cost‐effective offshore wind design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fracture Analysis of Cohesive Zone Models for Modeling Residual Stress Induced Delamination in Composite Structures

A fracture study of coupon-scale composite cylinders with embedded defects was conducted with an objective to assess and validate a modeling approach using two available cohesive material models. The study included experimental and simulation evaluations of initiation of crack growth and progression. Interrupted thermal experiments used acoustic emissions monitoring to identify the onset of crack progression during each cooling interval and ultrasonic scanning provided images of defect growth. Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) processes were performed in the assessment of the simulation predicted temperature at which crack propagation begins (quantity of interest). The Sobol sensitivity analysis identified the hoop direction elastic modulus in the carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) plies as the most influential parameter for simulations using both cohesive models, accounting for at least 70% of the variation in the temperature at crack propagation. The UQ temperature range for the Tvergaard-Hutchinson model was higher (more conservative) than the experimental acoustic measurement indicators of crack progression, while the temperature range for the Thouless-Parmigiani model enveloped the experimental data points for the primary defect size of 0.75 x 1 in. The simulations could not capture the stable crack growth indicated in the experiments. This is likely due to the models’ inability to represent anisotropic fracture toughness attributed to the structure of the orthotropic fiber weave in a woven composite laminate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Compositional Evolution of Saturn's Rings Due to Meteoroid Bombardment

In this paper we address the question of compositional evolution in planetary ring systems subsequent to meteoroid bombardment. The huge surface area to mass ratio of planetary rings ensures that this is an important process, even with current uncertainties on the meteoroid flux. We develop a new model which includes both direct deposition of extrinsic meteoritic "pollutants", and ballistic transport of the increasingly polluted ring material as impact ejecta. Our study includes detailed radiative transfer modeling of ring particle spectral reflectivities based on refractive indices of realistic constituents. Voyager data have shown that the lower optical depth regions in Saturn's rings (the C ring and Cassini Division) have darker and less red particles than the optically thicken A and B rings. These coupled structural-compositional groupings have never been explained; we present and explore the hypothesis that global scale color and compositional differences in the main rings of Saturn arise naturally from extrinsic meteoroid bombardment of a ring system which was initially composed primarily, but not entirely, of water ice. We find that the regional color and albedo differences can be understood if all ring material was initially identical (primarily water ice, based on other data, but colored by tiny amounts of intrinsic reddish, plausibly organic, absorber) and then evolved entirely by addition and mixing of extrinsic, nearly neutrally colored. plausibly carbonaceous material. We further demonstrate that the detailed radial profile of color across the abrupt B ring - C ring boundary can.constrain key unknown parameters in the model. Using new alternates of parameter values, we estimate the duration of the exposure to extrinsic meteoroid flux of this part of the rings, at least, to be on the order of 10(exp 8) years. This conclusion is easily extended by inference to the Cassini Division and its surroundings as well. This geologically young "age" is compatible with timescales estimated elsewhere based on the evolution of ring structure due to ballistic transport, and also with other "short timescales" estimated on the grounds of gravitational torques. However, uncertainty in the flux of interplanetary debris and in the ejects yield may preclude ruling out a ring age as old as the solar system at this time.

Cuzzi, J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Wardle Instability in Interstellar Shocks: Gas Temperture and Line Emission - 2

We have modeled the gas temperature structure in unstable C-type shocks and obtained predictions for the resultant CO and H2 rotational line emissions, using numerical simulations of the Wardle instability. Our model for the thermal balance of the gas includes ion-neutral frictional heating; compressional heating; radiative cooling due to rotational and ro-vibrational transitions of the molecules CO, H2O, and H2; and gas-grain collisional cooling. We obtained results for the gas temperature distribution in-and H2 and CO line emission from-shocks of neutral Alfvenic Mach number 10 and velocity 20 or 40 km/ s in which the Wardle instability has saturated. Both two- and three-dimensional simulations were carried out for shocks in which the preshock magnetic field is perpendicular to the shock propagation direction, and a two-dimensional simulation was carried out for the case in which the magnetic field is obliquely oriented with respect to the shock propagation direction. Although the Wardle instability profoundly affects the density structure behind C-type shocks, most of the shock-excited molecular line emission is generated upstream of the region where the strongest effects of the instability are felt. Thus the Wardle instability has a relatively small effect on the overall gas temperature distribution in-and the emission-line spectrum from-C-type shocks, at least for the cases that we have considered. In none of the cases that we have considered thus far did any of the predicted emission-line luminosities change by more than a factor of 2.5, and in most cases the effects of instability were significantly smaller than that. Slightly larger changes in the line luminosities seem likely for three-dimensional simulations of oblique shocks, although such simulations have yet to be carried out and lie beyond the scope of this study. Given the typical uncertainties that are always present when model predictions are compared with real astronomical data, we conclude that Wardle instability does not imprint any clear observational signature on the shock-excited CO and H2 line strengths. This result justifies the use of one-dimensional steady shock models in the interpretation of observations of shock-excited line emission in regions of star formation. Our three-dimensional simulations of perpendicular shocks revealed the presence of warm filamentary structures that are aligned along the magnetic field, a result that is of possible relevance to models of water maser emission from C-type shocks.

Neufeld, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Detection Under Changing Seasonality and Mean-State Climate: ARTMIP Tier 2 Paleoclimate Experiments

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition for what constitutes an atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty in quantifying how these systems respond to global change. This study seeks to better understand how different AR detection tools (ARDTs) respond to changes in climate states utilizing single-forcing climate model experiments under the aegis of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP). We compare a simulation with an early Holocene orbital configuration and another with CO2 levels of the Last Glacial Maximum to a preindustrial control simulation to test how the ARDTs respond to changes in seasonality and mean climate state, respectively. We find good agreement among the algorithms in the AR response to the changing orbital configuration, with a poleward shift in AR frequency that tracks seasonal poleward shifts in atmospheric water vapor and zonal winds. In the low CO2 simulation, the algorithms generally agree on the sign of AR changes, but there is substantial spread in their magnitude, indicating that mean-state changes lead to larger uncertainty. This disagreement likely arises primarily from differences between algorithms in their thresholds for water vapor and its transport used for identifying ARs. These findings warrant caution in ARDT selection for paleoclimate and climate change studies in which there is a change to the mean climate state, as ARDT selection contributes substantial uncertainty in such cases.

Atmospheric river, paleoclimate↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic finite volume method for uncertainty quantification of transient flow in gas pipeline networks

We develop a weakly intrusive framework to simulate the propagation of uncertainty in solutions of generic hyperbolic partial differential equation systems on graph-connected domains with nodal coupling and boundary conditions. The method is based on the Stochastic Finite Volume (SFV) approach and can be applied for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the dynamical state of fluid flow over actuated transport networks. The numerical scheme has specific advantages for modeling intertemporal uncertainty in time-varying boundary parameters, which cannot be characterized by strict upper and lower (interval) bounds. We describe the scheme for a single pipe, and then formulate the controlled junction Riemann problem (JRP) that enables the extension to general network structures. In conclusion, we demonstrate the method's capabilities and performance characteristics using a standard benchmark test network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geoscientific Hypotheses with Geophysical Data: Application to Electrical Resistivity Imaging of a Fractured Bedrock Zone

As climate changes and populations grow, groundwater sustainability is becoming increasingly important. Groundwater models, based on a conceptual understanding of the subsurface structure, are crucial tools for making sustainable management decisions. Conceptual models of the subsurface are based on knowledge of geological processes, and, frequently, observations from geophysical data. A frequent problem in groundwater model development occurs when multiple geological phenomena could explain a single subsurface observation. Uncertainty in geophysical data makes it even more difficult to discern which explanations are consistent with the geophysics. Here, we present a framework for testing geological when a geological feature is observed in geophysical data, but its physical characteristics are uncertain. The framework builds on Popper-Bayes methods developed in previous work, and is applied to study a fractured bedrock zone in a mountainous watershed in southwest Colorado. First, we outline six hypotheses based on the geological history of the watershed. Then, using the proposed Popper-Bayes approach, we demonstrate that three of the six hypotheses are inconsistent with measured electrical resistivity data, even after accounting for uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the importance of the prior model, and how this framework for handling geophysical uncertainty can be applied in other settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗