Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “parameter estimates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 775 records · Page 43
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for cosmological stochastic backgrounds by notching out resolvable compact binary foregrounds with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds can be of either cosmological or astrophysical origin. The detection of an astrophysical stochastic gravitational-wave background with ground-based interferometers is expected in the near future. Perhaps even more excitingly, the detection of stochastic backgrounds of cosmological origin by future ground-based interferometers could reveal invaluable information about the early Universe. From this perspective, the astrophysical background is a foreground that can prevent the extraction of this information from the data. In this paper, we revisit a time-frequency domain notching procedure previously proposed to remove the astrophysical foreground in the context of next-generation ground-based detectors, but we consider the more realistic scenario where we remove individually detectable signals by taking into account the uncertainty in the estimation of their parameters. We find that time-frequency domain masks can still efficiently remove the astrophysical foreground and suppress it to about 5% of its original level. Further removal of the foreground formed by unresolvable events (in particular, unresolvable binary neutron stars), which is about 10 times larger than the residual foreground from realistic notching, would require detector sensitivity improvements. Therefore, the main limitation in the search for a cosmological background is the unresolvable foreground itself, and not the residual of the notching procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inference-Based Quantum Sensing

In a standard quantum sensing (QS) task one aims at estimating an unknown parameter θ, encoded into an n-qubit probe state, via measurements of the system. The success of this task hinges on the ability to correlate changes in the parameter to changes in the system response $\mathscr{R}$⁡(θ) (i.e., changes in the measurement outcomes). For simple cases the form of $\mathscr{R}$⁡(θ) is known, but the same cannot be said for realistic scenarios, as no general closed-form expression exists. Here, in this Letter, we present an inference-based scheme for QS. We show that, for a general class of unitary families of encoding, $\mathscr{R}$⁡(θ) can be fully characterized by only measuring the system response at 2⁢n+1 parameters. This allows us to infer the value of an unknown parameter given the measured response, as well as to determine the sensitivity of the scheme, which characterizes its overall performance. We show that inference error is, with high probability, smaller than δ, if one measures the system response with a number of shots that scales only as Ω⁢(log 3 ⁡(n)/δ 2 ). Furthermore, the framework presented can be broadly applied as it remains valid for arbitrary probe states and measurement schemes, and, even holds in the presence of quantum noise. We also discuss how to extend our results beyond unitary families. Finally, to showcase our method we implement it for a QS task on real quantum hardware, and in numerical simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Digital Twin for Reliability Assessment of DC/DC Buck Converter

In commercial applications, the operation of DC/DC converters significantly impacts overall system performance and long-term reliability. This study introduces a data-driven digital twin (DT) approach for estimating critical degradation parameters of DC/DC BUCK converter under steady-state condition. Initially, a circuit-level MATLAB/Simulink digital model (DM C ) is refined against a hardware prototype’s switching model dataset using offline particle swarm optimization. The optimized digital model’s steady-state response is then verified with its average model response while varying the duty and load. Subsequently, degradation profiles are imposed on the inductor, capacitor, MOSFET in the DMC. A large dataset is generated from this model, allowing training, validation, and testing of machine learning (ML) models for component health regression tasks. The proposed method employs random forest ML models, achieving impressive regression results with a squared R value as high as 0.99978 and a root mean square error of 4.2× 10 –6 . The method is further validated on a medium power level DC/DC BUCK prototype with varying load conditions, and includes the analysis of MOSFET’s on-resistance under degradation conditions. This data-driven DT method shows promise for identifying parasitic degradation and ohmic loss parameters, enhancing converter reliability assessments in a non-invasive, generalized, and computationally efficient manner.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new upper bound for the growth factor in Gaussian elimination with complete pivoting

Abstract The growth factor in Gaussian elimination measures how large the entries of an LU factorization can be relative to the entries of the original matrix. It is a key parameter in error estimates, and one of the most fundamental topics in numerical analysis. We produce an upper bound of for the growth factor in Gaussian elimination with complete pivoting — the first improvement upon Wilkinson's original 1961 bound of .

Bisain, Ankit [Department of Mathematics Massachus↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining light thermal inelastic dark matter with NA64

A vector portal between the Standard Model and the dark sector is a predictive and compelling framework for thermal dark matter. Through co-annihilations, models of inelastic dark matter (iDM) and inelastic Dirac dark matter (i2DM) can reproduce the observed relic density in the MeV to GeV mass range without violating cosmological limits. In these scenarios, the vector mediator behaves like a semi-visible particle, evading traditional bounds on visible or invisible resonances, and uncovering new parameter space to explain the muon (g–2) anomaly. By means of a more inclusive signal definition at the NA64 experiment, we place new constraints on iDM and i2DM using a missing energy technique. With a recast-based analysis, we contextualize the NA64 exclusion limits in parameter space and estimate the reach of the newly collected and expected future NA64 data. Our results motivate the development of an optimized search program for semi-visible particles, in which fixed-target experiments like NA64 provide a powerful probe in the sub-GeV mass range.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

LEAD - LEArning Damage

LEAD is a suite of scripts to enable rapid estimation of model parameters for damage models for ductile materials using machine learning. In its current version, the only supported damage model is TEPLA, though others are planned. The data we train on are comprised of free surface velocity data as well as porosity data. Some details about our method can be found in the preprint LA-UR-23-20468 (arxiv.org/abs/2301.07790)

Blaschke, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRINIDI (Time-of-Flight Resonance Imaging with Neutrons for Isotopic Density Inference)

This software is an open-source Python library that provides tools for processing hyperspectral neutron time-of-flight radiography data. This type of data allows material decomposed reconstructions to be generated with the use of material characteristic spectral responses and the algorithms provided in this code library. The software library will contain tools for pre-processing the neutron measurement data, estimating measurement system parameters, reconstructing material decomposed radiographs, and computing material decomposed computed tomography (CT). Furthermore, it will have capability to generate and process simulated neutron time-of-flight data with the goal of benchmarking and demonstrating the tools that are provided. The software will include thorough documentation and application examples.

Balke, Thilo↗
DOE OSTI2024

MultiPEM Toolbox

Supports characterization of explosive events by providing estimates of device parameters such as yield, height of burst/depth of burial, geolocation, and event time with uncertainty quantification.

Williams, Brian↗
DOE OSTI2025

XCal: model-based approach to X-ray CT spectral calibration

Transmission X-ray computed tomography (CT) is widely used to quantitatively reconstruct 3D objects composed of multiple materials. However, accurate CT reconstruction requires the system to be calibrated to account for the effective X-ray spectrum. Unfortunately, measurement of the effective spectrum is ill-posed, and existing calibration methods require that the system be recalibrated when the system parameters are changed. In this paper, we propose XCal, a multi-energy model-based spectral calibration approach for X-ray CT. The XCal approach models the effective spectrum using a separable physics-based model of the CT system. The model parameters are then estimated by fitting calibration data with known objects at multiple energies. An important advantage of XCal is that it allows the user to change scanner settings, such as the source voltage or X-ray filters, without the need for recalibration. Evaluations on simulated and measured datasets demonstrate that XCal significantly improves the accuracy of the estimated spectrum as compared to existing calibration methods.

Li, Wenrui [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2020

Models of SIV rebound after treatment interruption that involve multiple reactivation events

In order to assess the efficacy of novel HIV-1 treatments leading to a functional cure, the time to viral rebound is frequently used as a surrogate endpoint. The longer the time to viral rebound, the more efficacious the therapy. In support of such an approach, mathematical models serve as a connection between the size of the latent reservoir and the time to HIV-1 rebound after treatment interruption. The simplest of such models assumes that a single successful latent cell reactivation event leads to observable viremia after a period of exponential viral growth. Here we consider a generalization developed by Pinkevych et al. and Hill et al. of this simple model in which multiple reactivation events can occur, each contributing to the exponential growth of the viral load. We formalize and improve the previous derivation of the dynamics predicted by this model, and use the model to estimate relevant biological parameters from SIV rebound data. We confirm a previously described effect of very early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation on the rate of recrudescence and the viral load growth rate after treatment interruption. We find that every day ART initiation is delayed results in a 39% increase in the recrudescence rate (95% credible interval: [18%, 62%]), and a 11% decrease of the viral growth rate (95% credible interval: [4%, 20%]). We show that when viral rebound occurs early relative to the viral load doubling time, a model with multiple successful reactivation events fits the data better than a model with only a single successful reactivation event.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing Shielded Special Nuclear Material by Neutron Capture Gamma-Ray Multiplicity Counting

We present a new neutron multiplicity counting analysis and measurement method for neutron-shielded fissile material using neutron-capture gamma rays. Neutrons absorbed in shielding produce characteristic gamma rays that preserve the otherwise lost neutron multiplicity signature. Neutron multiplicity counting provides estimates of fission parameters, such as neutron leakage multiplication, spontaneous fissioner (e.g. Pu-240) mass, and (α,n) ratio. Standard neutron multiplicity counting can incorporate the new neutron-capture gamma-ray multiplicity counting technique to characterize previously degenerate or intractable source configurations by maximizing the multiplicity signature. The new method decouples neutron source-detector interferences, such as reflection and thermalization time in the detector, that could improve measurements of the mean neutron lifetime. We also develop a detector prototype for the multiplicity counting of neutron-capture gamma rays and present detector design considerations, such as detection material and shielding, to optimize the detection of the 2.2 MeV hydrogen capture gamma ray. We simulate the prototype neutron- capture gamma-ray multiplicity counter against the BeRP ball in polyethylene shells to inform future measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vibration-Based Sensor Design: A Grey-Box Approach

Knowledge of the internal structure of an object or device under investigation proceeds from the basic idea of constructing its dynamic behavioral relations governed by a set of differential/algebraic equations that characterize its response. These equations can be partial differential equations leading to finite element or finite difference relations requiring a complex numerical solution on a super computer or ordinary differential equations requiring sophisticated numerical integration techniques to obtain the desired solution. Discrete dynamic systems evolving from digitized data acquisition are typically captured by sampled-data (continuous-to-discrete) representations characterized by a set of difference equations specifying the underlying system dynamics. In any case, with a mathematical description in hand, Grey-Box modeling techniques have evolved, concerned with the estimation of model parameters embedded in a prescribed set of equations (the system) governing its behavior, while capturing the underlying physical phenomenology of the problem at hand.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Based Approach to Integrate MyShake's Trigger Data with ShakeAlert for Faster and Robust EEW Alerts

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems depend on the dense seismic network to make fast and accurate earthquake detections to issue useful early alerts. The recent development and implementation of the ShakeAlert system is relying on the west coast seismic network to detect and estimate the earthquake parameters in real-time. While working on making improvements on the current system, one potential approach is to include more seismic recordings from various sources, such as the low-cost smartphone seismic network, such as the MyShake network, or the Google Android smartphones, since these smartphone seismic networks have much more portable stations (phones) to potentially provide useful data to the system. This report summarizes the initial exploration of using a deep learning approach to combine the data from both traditional seismic stations and the smartphone data in California. Due to the heterogeneity nature of the data, we aggregate data from the phones (using simulation data), as well as that from traditional seismic stations to grid cells. By generating real-time triggering ratio grid cell maps, the designed deep learning algorithm can process the data from multiple sources and detect the earthquake faster than only using that from a traditional seismic network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Processing, structure, and thermal properties of ZrW 2 O 8 , HfW 2 O 8 , HfMgW 3 O 12 , Al(HfMg) 0.5 W 3 O 12 , and Al 0.5 Sc 1.5 W 3 O 12 negative and zero thermal expansion coefficient ceramics

Negative and zero coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) materials are of interest for developing polymer composites in electronic circuits that match the expansion of Si and in zero CTE supports for optical components, e.g., mirrors. In this work, the processing challenges and stability of ZrW 2 O 8 , HfW 2 O 8 , HfMgW 3 O 12 , Al(HfMg) 0.5 W 3 O 12 , and Al 0.5 Sc 1.5 W 3 O 12 negative and zero thermal expansion coefficient ceramics are discussed. Al 0.5 Sc 1.5 W 3 O 12 is demonstrated to be a relatively simple oxide to fabricate in large quantity and is shown to exhibit single phase up to 1300 °C in air and inert N 2 environments. The negative and zero CTE behavior was confirmed with dilatometry. Thermal conductivity and heat capacity were reported for the first time for HfMgW 3 O 12 and Al 0.5 Sc 1.5 W 3 O 12 and thermal conductivity was found to be very low (~0.5 W/mK). Grüneisen parameter is also estimated. Methods for integration of Al 0.5 Sc 1.5 W 3 O 12 with other materials was examined and embedding 50 vol% of the ceramic powder in flexible epoxy was demonstrated with a commercial vendor.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geophysical Signatures of Crack Network Coalescence in Rocks at Multiple Length Scales

The main goal of the research project was to identify the geophysical signatures of fracture growth in natural rocks by utilizing novel geophysical techniques. The research objectives were to (a) investigate the potential for geophysical methods to determine when cracks initiate, the types and locations of propagated cracks, and the coalescence of networks of cracks in natural rocks at multiple scales, (b) determine how damage at the microscale evolved into damage at the macroscale and then link the microscopic and macroscopic observations, (c) quantify crack coalescence in rocks under realistic stress conditions using coupled mechanical-geophysical-optical visualization, and (d) identify the precursors in geophysical signals to crack coalescence. The following research thrusts were explored to achieve the research objectives: (1) uniaxial compression testing of rock specimens with and without a set of pre‐existing flaws and (2) triaxial compression testing of natural rock specimens. These thrusts allowed for exploring fracturing in rocks under realistic in situ environments and at multiple scales. This project provided educational opportunities for nine graduate and undergraduate students and resulted in 27 peer-reviewed publications. This first research thrust focused on investigating the micromechanics of fractures in rocks through uniaxial compression testing combined with advanced geophysical and imaging techniques, specifically acoustic emission (AE) monitoring, ultrasonic imaging, and 2-dimensional Digital Image Correlation (2D-DIC). By examining damage processes under time-independent and time-dependent loading conditions, insights into damage localization, crack initiation, and fracturing mechanisms were gained. It was observed that the AE signals and the strain-based measurements directly reflect the state of damage in the rock specimen and could be used to identify the cracking levels, such as the crack initiation (CI) and crack damage (CD), and the mode of deformation. A novel calibration apparatus was developed to enhance the accuracy of AE sensors, allowing for the estimation of key parameters such as magnitude, source dimension, stress drop, and radiated seismic energy associated with the fractures. The findings highlighted significant variations in the temporal evolution of AE source parameters during the primary, secondary, and tertiary stages of creep, identifying tensile cracking as the primary deformation mode. The second research thrust focused on enhancing the understanding of fracturing processes in natural rocks through triaxial compression testing, real-time AE monitoring, and ultrasonic monitoring. We investigated the impact of various factors such as fracture propagation regimes, injection parameters, rock types, and pre-existing conditions on the hydraulic fracture (HF) behavior using scaled true-triaxially loaded specimens of Barre granite and Lyons sandstone. Custom sensor housing facilitated concurrent active and passive monitoring to analyze hydro-mechanical responses and microseismicity associated with different HF scenarios. A coupled investigation of passive microseismicity and active signal attributes permitted a detailed comprehension of the various HF processes (aseismic deformation, fracture initiation and propagation, fluid permeation, and leak-off) and their dependence on the specific rock type. The findings of this research demonstrated the effectiveness of AE monitoring techniques in providing valuable insights into the impact of various factors on the behavior and dynamics of HF processes. The advancements in monitoring techniques, offering a more thorough and precise approach, represent a significant step towards optimizing HF practices and ensuring sustainable resource extraction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design Methods, Tools, and Data for Ceramic Solar Receivers

This report presents the development of tools and methods for evaluating the reliability and performance of ceramic materials in high temperature solar receivers. As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat requirements, current high temperature metallic materials face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. This report explores advanced ceramics as a promising alternative, given their superior high temperature strength and lower thermal expansion, compared to metals. To address the need for effective ceramic receiver design tools, this report integrates statistical failure models of ceramics into the existing srlife tool: an open-source software package designed to estimate the life of high temperature CSP components. These failure models account for the inherent variability and flaw distribution in ceramics, as well as the impact of subcritical crack growth under high temperature cyclic loads. The report also presents experimental data collected for a commercially available ceramic material, SiC, and details the process of estimating reliability model parameters from these data. A comparative design analysis is then performed between ceramic (SiC) and metallic (current nickel-based superalloys A740H and A282) receiver. This comparison demonstrates that SiC receivers can achieve service life exceeding 30 years under high incident heat flux conditions, compared to just a few years for metallic receivers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Discovery of 15 A-F Main Sequence Pulsating Star Candidates

Delta Scuti stars, spanning spectral types A to F with masses between 1.5 and 2.5 solar masses, exhibit a complex mix of radial and non-radial pressure modes. This study focuses on 15 Delta Scuti, Gamma Doradus, and Hybrid candidate stars using TESS satellite photometry data with a time series of exposures ranging from 20 to 600 seconds across different sky regions. Employing the prewhitening technique via fast Fourier transforms, significant frequencies are extracted from light curves. Three approximation methods are used to estimate critical stellar parameters such as density, radius, and mass. This research also verifies the variability of these stars, which are currently not classified as variable in databases like SIMBAD.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions

his report details the findings from the research and investigation of Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions. We explored the trustworthiness of machine learning (ML) models’ predictions using geometric measures to quantify the similarity of a query point with the training data. Predictive uncertainty in ML can originate from at least three sources: (1) Model uncertainty, which represents the uncertainty in model form (e.g. decision tree, vs neural network) and estimating the model parameters from the training data, (2) Data uncertainty, which represents the natural complexities of the data such as class overlap and inherent noise, and (3) Distributional uncertainty, which represents the mismatch between the training and operational distributions. The proposed measures focus on measuring and explaining the data and distributional uncertainties by measuring the relationships of operational data with the training data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗