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DOE OSTI2014

Intermediate frequency atmospheric disturbances: A dynamical bridge connecting western U.S. extreme precipitation with East Asian cold surges: Atmospheric Rivers and IF disturbances

In this study, an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is developed to investigate the downstream modulation of the eastern North Pacific ARs by another weather extreme, known as the East Asian cold surge (EACS), in both reanalysis data and high-resolution global model simulations. It is shown that following the peak of an EACS, atmospheric disturbances of intermediate frequency (IF; 10–30 day period) are excited downstream. This leads to the formation of a persistent cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern North Pacific that dramatically enhances the AR occurrence probability and the surface precipitation over the western U.S. between 30°N and 50°N. A diagnosis of the local geopotential height tendency further confirms the essential role of IF disturbances in establishing the observed persistent anomaly. This downstream modulation effect is then examined in the two simulations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4 with different horizontal resolutions (T85 and T341) for the same period (1979–2005). The connection between EACS and AR is much better captured by the T341 version of the model, mainly due to a better representation of the scale interaction and the characteristics of IF atmospheric disturbances in the higher-resolution model. The findings here suggest that faithful representations of scale interaction in a global model are critical for modeling and predicting the occurrences of hydrological extremes in the western U.S. and for understanding their potential future changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

ntermediate frequency atmospheric disturbances: A dynamical bridge connecting western U.S. extreme precipitation with East Asian cold surges

In this study, an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is developed to investigate the downstream modulation of the eastern North Pacific ARs by another weather extreme, known as the East Asian cold surge (EACS), in both reanalysis data and high-resolution global model simulations. It is shown that following the peak of an EACS, atmospheric disturbances of intermediate frequency (IF; 10 30 day period) are excited downstream. This leads to the formation of a persistent cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern North Pacific that dramatically enhances the AR occurrence probability and the surface precipitation over the western U.S. between 30 N and 50 N. A diagnosis of the local geopotential height tendency further confirms the essential role of IF disturbances in establishing the observed persistent anomaly. This downstream modulation effect is then examined in the two simulations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4 with different horizontal resolutions (T85 and T341) for the same period (1979 2005). The connection between EACS and AR is much better captured by the T341 version of the model, mainly due to a better representation of the scale interaction and the characteristics of IF atmospheric disturbances in the higher-resolution model. The findings here suggest that faithful representations of scale interaction in a global model are critical for modeling and predicting the occurrences of hydrological extremes in the western U.S. and for understanding their potential future changes.

atmospheric river↗

DOE OSTI2014

DNA cleavage enzymes for treatment of persistent viral infections: Recent advances and the pathway forward

Treatment for most persistent viral infections consists of palliative drug options rather than curative approaches. This is often because long-lasting viral DNA in infected cells is not affected by current antivirals, providing a source for viral persistence and reactivation. Targeting latent viral DNA itself could therefore provide a basis for novel curative strategies. DNA cleavage enzymes can be used to induce targeted mutagenesis of specific genes, including those of exogenous viruses. Although initial in vitro and even in vivo studies have been carried out using DNA cleavage enzymes targeting various viruses, many questions still remain concerning the feasibility of these strategies as they transition into preclinical research. Here, we review the most recent findings on DNA cleavage enzymes for human viral infections, consider the most relevant animal models for several human viral infections, and address issues regarding safety and enzyme delivery. Results from well-designed in vivo studies will ideally provide answers to the most urgent remaining questions, and allow continued progress toward clinical application. - Highlights: • Recent in vitro and in vivo results for DNA cleavage enzymes targeting persistent viral infections. • Analysis of the best animal models for testing enzymes for HBV, HSV, HIV and HPV. • Challenges facing in vivo delivery of therapeutic enzymes for persistent viral infections. • Safety issues to be addressed with proper animal studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatially distributed infection increases viral load in a computational model of SARS-CoV-2 lung infection

A key question in SARS-CoV-2 infection is why viral loads and patient outcomes vary dramatically across individuals. Because spatial-temporal dynamics of viral spread and immune response are challenging to study in vivo, we developed Spatial Immune Model of Coronavirus (SIMCoV), a scalable computational model that simulates hundreds of millions of lung cells, including respiratory epithelial cells and T cells. SIMCoV replicates viral growth dynamics observed in patients and shows how spatially dispersed infections can lead to increased viral loads. The model also shows how the timing and strength of the T cell response can affect viral persistence, oscillations, and control. By incorporating spatial interactions, SIMCoV provides a parsimonious explanation for the dramatically different viral load trajectories among patients by varying only the number of initial sites of infection and the magnitude and timing of the T cell immune response. When the branching airway structure of the lung is explicitly represented, we find that virus spreads faster than in a 2D layer of epithelial cells, but much more slowly than in an undifferentiated 3D grid or in a well-mixed differential equation model. These results illustrate how realistic, spatially explicit computational models can improve understanding of within-host dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Structure of a 28.5 kDa duplex-embedded G-quadruplex system resolved to 7.4 Å resolution with cryo-EM

Genomic regions with high guanine content can fold into non-B form DNA four-stranded structures known as G-quadruplexes (G4s). Extensive in vivo investigations have revealed that promoter G4s are transcriptional regulators. Little structural information exists for these G4s embedded within duplexes, their presumed genomic environment. Here, we report the 7.4 Å resolution structure and dynamics of a 28.5 kDa duplex-G4-duplex (DGD) model system using cryo-EM, molecular dynamics, and small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) studies. The DGD cryo-EM refined model features a 53° bend induced by a stacked duplex-G4 interaction at the 5’ G-tetrad interface with a persistently unstacked 3’ duplex. The surrogate complement poly dT loop preferably stacks onto the 3’ G-tetrad interface resulting in occlusion of both 5’ and 3’ tetrad interfaces. Structural analysis shows that the DGD model is quantifiably more druggable than the monomeric G4 structure alone and represents a new structural drug target. Our results illustrate how the integration of cryo-EM, MD, and SAXS can reveal complementary detailed static and dynamic structural information on DNA G4 systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Vision 2040: A Roadmap for Integrated, Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Materials and Systems

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. While these advances have driven significant progress in the development of aerospace components and systems, that progress has been limited by persistent technology and infrastructure challenges that must be overcome to realize the full potential of integrated materials and systems design and simulation modeling throughout the supply chain. As a result, NASA's Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a diverse team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This report describes the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); identified gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations) which constitutes a community consensus document as it is a result of over 450 professionals input obtain via: 1) four society workshops (AIAA, NAFEMS, and two TMS), 2) community-wide survey, and 3) the establishment of 9 expert panels (one per KE) consisting on average of 10 non-team members from academia, government and industry to review, update content, and prioritize gaps and actions. The study envisions the development of a cyber-physical-social ecosystem comprised of experimentally verified and validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that impacts the entire supply chain to enable cost-effective, rapid, and revolutionary design of fit-for-purpose materials, components, and systems. Although the vision focused on aeronautics and space applications, it is believed that other engineering communities (e.g., automotive, biomedical, etc.) can benefit as well from the proposed framework with only minor modifications. Finally, it is TTT's hope and desire that this vision provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United States global competitiveness.

multi-scale modeling↗

NASA NTRS2018

2040 Vision: A Roadmap for Integrated, Multiscale Materials and System Modeling and Simulation

Over the last few decades, advances in high-performance computing, new materials characterization methods, and, more recently, an emphasis on integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) and additive manufacturing have been a catalyst for multiscale modeling and simulation-based design of materials and structures in the aerospace industry. While these advances have driven significant progress in the development of aerospace components and systems, that progress has been limited by persistent technology and infrastructure challenges that must be overcome to realize the full potential of integrated materials and systems design and simulation modeling throughout the supply chain. As a result, NASA's Transformational Tools and Technology (TTT) Project sponsored a study (performed by a team led by Pratt & Whitney) to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems (e.g., load-bearing structures) to accelerate the pace and reduce the expense of innovation in future aerospace and aeronautical systems. This talk will describe the findings of this 2040 Vision study (e.g., the 2040 vision state; the required interdependent core technical work areas, Key Element (KE); associated critical gaps and actions to close those gaps; and major recommendations). This roadmap is a community consensus document and is a result of over 450 professionals input obtain via: i) four society workshops (AIAA, NAFEMS, and two TMS), ii) community-wide survey, and iii) the establishment of 9 expert panels (one per key element) consisting on average 10 non-team members from academia, government and industry to review, update content, and prioritize gaps and actions. It is NASA's hope and desire that this roadmap provides the strategic guidance to both public and private research and development decision makers to make the proposed 2040 vision state a reality and thereby provide a significant advancement in the United States global competitiveness.

Multiscale Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Global Simulations of Aerosol Particle and Cloud Condensation Nuclei Number, with Implications for Cloud Droplet Formation

cloud droplets↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Discovery and Mixed-Variable Optimization of Next Generation Synthesizable Microelectronic Materials

Design of new microelectronic materials is characterized by several challenges such as high-dimensionality of the atomic structure-composition variable space, formidable cost of directly using high-fidelity simulations for design optimization, dispersity in literature-reported similar materials and synthesis methods, complex physical mechanisms, and mixed qualitative and quantitative design variables that lead to a disjointed design space. Even though machine learning (ML) techniques have been employed to expedite materials innovation, existing methods treat ML and design optimization as two separate processes, failing to resolve the fundamental challenges associated with high dimensionality and mixed-variable complexity. We have developed a ML enhanced mixed-variable material design optimization framework to efficiently extract useful information from existing data in literature and physics-based simulations to guide the autonomous search for optimal materials. Our proposed framework is composed of four computational modules: (1) a natural language processing (NLP) based virtual screening module, (2) classification based concept exploration module, (3) a density functional theory (DFT)-based high-fidelity evaluation model, and (4) a novel latent-variable Gaussian process (LVGP) ML model for mixed-variable problems with uncertainty quantification, which seamlessly integrates with Bayesian Optimization (BO) and achieves superb efficiency through embedded physics-based dimension reduction. Our approach is demonstrated and validated using the testbed of functional materials exhibiting metal-insulation transitions (MITs), with the targeted reversible resistivity changes (∼10^5) near room temperature. At the end of the 30-month project, we have developed a series of new ML techniques using NLP, conditional variational autoencoders, active learning, latent-variable Gaussian processes, integrated with Bayesian optimization. Our project has resulted in new predicted MITs compounds and improved understanding of MITs microscopic mechanisms, which in turn will revolutionize microelectronics science to provide energy-saving solutions. Our research has improved both creativity and efficiency in transforming rare-event discoveries of new functional materials to persistent innovations. In addition to open-sourcing the online MIT database and the classification model, the LVGP open source code has been downloaded more than 15,000 times within two years. More than 40 MIT compounds have been identified and many have been pursued experimentally via collaborators. The research results are published in close to 20 collaborative papers in high-impact journals, such as Chem. Mater., Appl. Phys. Rev., Sci. Rep., among others of design space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2012

Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase understanding and reproducibility, and ultimately increase credibility and trust of the resulting report. Building on the foundation of the NCA, longer term plans for the GCIS include extending these capabilities throughout the U.S. Global Change Research Program, centralizing access to global change data and information across the thirteen agencies that comprise the program.

Tilmes, Curt A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Atomic dynamics in 𝑀⁢Cr⁢𝑋 2 (𝑀=Ag, Cu; 𝑋 = S, Se) across magnetic and superionic transitions

Here, a systematic study of atomic dynamics and thermal properties of the family of layered chalcogenide compounds 𝑀⁢Cr⁢𝑋 2 (𝑀= Ag, Cu; 𝑋 = S, Se) was performed, including neutron and x-ray scattering, thermal characterization, and first-principles simulations. In all compounds, we observe a breakdown of specific phonon modes across the superionic phase transition, for phonons whose eigenvectors exhibit large contributions of mobile ions. In particular, the nondispersive portions of transverse acoustic (TA) branches at short-wavelengths and the low-energy optical phonons with large contributions from Ag + or Cu + become severely damped in the superionic phase. However, well-defined quasiparticles persist in the superionic state for long-wavelength TA phonons. In the case of AgCrS 2 , the coupling of lattice dynamics with its antiferromagnetic transition was also investigated. The magnetic ordering couples with the monoclinic–rhombohedral structural transition, and the Cr 3+ spin arrangement strongly affects the phonon dispersions. We qualitatively reproduce the magnetic and nuclear components of the INS measurement for antiferromagnetic AgCrS 2 by combining models of spin-waves and spin-polarized first-principles phonon simulations. Quasielastic magnetic fluctuations persist in the paramagnetic phase up to high temperature, but are clearly distinguished from the nuclear component through their momentum dependence. Finally, we report measurements of the thermal properties of the selenide compounds and find good agreement with our DFT simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles

An adequate characterization of internal modes of climate variability (MoV) is a prerequisite for both accurate seasonal predictions and climate change detection and attribution. Assessing the fidelity of climate models in simulating MoV is therefore essential; however, doing so is complicated by the large intrinsic variations in MoV and the limited span of the observational record. Large ensembles (LEs) provide a unique opportunity to assess model fidelity in simulating MoV and quantify intermodel contrasts. Here, in this work, these goals are pursued in four recently produced LEs: the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) versions 1 and 2 LEs, and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) versions 1 and 2 LEs. In general, the representation of global coupled modes is found to improve across successive E3SM and CESM versions in conjunction with the fidelity of the base state climate while the patterns of extratropical modes are well simulated across the ensembles. Various persistent shortcomings for all MoV are however identified and discussed. The results both demonstrate the successes of these recent model versions and suggest the potential for continued improvement in the representation of MoV with advances in model physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of global simulations of aerosol particle and cloud condensation nuclei number, with implications for cloud droplet formation

A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 model shave been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011–2015 are compared with aerosol measurements(aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan.The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal andshort-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where dataare available, of –24% and –35% for particles with dry diameters <50 and <120 nm, as well as –36% and –34% for CCNat supersaturations of 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively. Yet, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (<0.1%) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N 3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3 nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2% (CCN 0.2 ) compared to that for N 3 , maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120 nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated o naverage by the models by 40% during winter and 20% in summer. In contrast to the large spread in simulated aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, the CDNC derived from simulated CCN spectra is less diverse and in better agreement with CDNC estimates consistently derived from the observations (average NMB –13% and –22% for updraft velocities 0.3 and 0.6m s –1 , respectively). In addition, simulated CDNC is in slightly better agreement with observationally derived values at lower than at higher updraft velocities (index of agreement 0.64 vs. 0.65). The reduced spread of CDNC compared to that of CCN is attributed to the sublinear response of CDNC to aerosol particle number variations and the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol particle number concentration( ∂ N d / ∂ N a ) and to updraft velocity ( ∂ N d / ∂ w ). Overall, we find that while CCN is controlled by both aerosol particle number and composition, CDNC is sensitive to CCN at low and moderate CCN concentrations and to the updraft velocity when CCN levels are high. Discrepancies are found in sensitivities ∂ N d / ∂ N a and ∂ N d / ∂ w ; models may be predisposed to be too“aerosol sensitive” or “aerosol insensitive” in aerosol–cloud–climate interaction studies, even if they may capture average droplet numbers well.This is a subtle but profound finding that only the sensitivities can clearly reveal and may explain inter-model biases on the aerosol indirect effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Low Velocity Difference Thermal Shear Layer Mixing Rate Measurements

Current CFD modeling techniques are known to do a poor job of predicting the mixing rate and persistence of slot film flow in co-annular flowing ducts with relatively small velocity differences but large thermal gradients. A co-annular test was devised to empirically determine the mixing rate of slot film flow in a constant area circular duct (D approx. 1ft, L approx. 10ft). The axial rate of wall heat-up is a sensitive measure of the mixing rate of the two flows. The inflow conditions were varied to simulate a variety of conditions characteristic of moderate by-pass ratio engines. A series of air temperature measurements near the duct wall provided a straightforward means to measure the axial temperature distribution and thus infer the mixing rate. This data provides a characterization of the slot film mixing rates encountered in typical jet engine environments. The experimental geometry and entrance conditions, along with the sensitivity of the results as the entrance conditions vary, make this a good test for turbulence models in a regime important to modern air-breathing propulsion research and development.

Bush, Robert H.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Modeling the optical-X-ray accretion lag in LMC X-3: Insights into black-hole accretion physics

The X-ray persistence and characteristically soft spectrum of the black hole X-ray binary LMC X-3 make this source a touchstone for penetrating studies of accretion physics. We analyze a rich, ten-year collection of optical/infrared (OIR) time-series data in conjunction with all available contemporaneous X-ray data collected by the All-Sky Monitor and Proportional Counter Array detectors aboard the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. A cross-correlation analysis reveals an X-ray lag of ≈2 weeks. Motivated by this result, we develop a model that reproduces the complex OIR light curves of LMC X-3. The model is comprised of three components of emission: stellar light, accretion luminosity from the outer disk inferred from the time-lagged X-ray emission, and light from the X-ray-heated star and outer disk. Using the model, we filter a strong noise component out of the ellipsoidal light curves and derive an improved orbital period for the system. Concerning accretion physics, we find that the local viscous timescale in the disk increases with the local mass accretion rate; this in turn implies that the viscosity parameter α decreases with increasing luminosity. Finally, we find that X-ray heating is a strong function of X-ray luminosity below ≈50% of the Eddington limit, while above this limit X-ray heating is heavily suppressed. We ascribe this behavior to the strong dependence of the flaring in the disk upon X-ray luminosity, concluding that for luminosities above ≈50% of Eddington, the star lies fully in the shadow of the disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using a Stochastic Dynamical Model Compared to the North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecast

This study assesses the predictive skill of eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models in predicting the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). We find that the forecasted ensemble-mean IOD–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship deteriorates away from the observed relationship with increasing lead time, which might be one reason that limits the IOD predictive skill in coupled models. We are able to improve the IOD predictive skill using a recently developed stochastic dynamical model (SDM) forced by forecasted ENSO conditions. The results are consistent with the previous result that operational IOD predictability beyond persistence at lead times beyond one season is mostly controlled by ENSO predictability and the signal-to-noise ratio of the Indo-Pacific climate system. The multimodel ensemble (MME) investigated here is found to be of superior skill compared to each individual model at most lead times. Importantly, the skill of the SDM IOD predictions forced with forecasted ENSO conditions were either similar or better than those of the MME IOD forecasts. Moreover, the SDM forced with observed ENSO conditions exhibits significantly higher IOD prediction skill than the MME at longer lead times, suggesting the large potential skill increase that could be achieved by improving operational ENSO forecasts. We find that both cold and warm biases of the predicted Niño-3.4 index may cause false alarms of negative and positive IOD events, respectively, in NMME models. Many false alarms for IOD forecasts at lead times longer than one season in the original forecasts disappear or are significantly reduced in the SDM forced by forecasted ENSO conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Sulfur mustard induces an endoplasmic reticulum stress response in the mouse ear vesicant model

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress response is a cell survival pathway upregulated when cells are under severe stress. Severely damaged mouse ear skin exposed to the vesicant, sulfur mustard (bis-2-chloroethyl sulfide, SM), resulted in increased expression of ER chaperone proteins that accompany misfolded and incorrectly made proteins targeted for degradation. Time course studies with SM using the mouse ear vesicant model (MEVM) showed progressive histopathologic changes including edema, separation of the epidermis from the dermis, persistent inflammation, upregulation of laminin γ2 (one of the chains of laminin-332, a heterotrimeric skin glycoprotein required for wound repair), and delayed wound healing from 24 h to 168 h post exposure. This was associated with time related increased expression of the cell survival ER stress marker, GRP78/BiP, and the ER stress apoptosis marker, GADD153/CHOP, suggesting simultaneous activation of both cell survival and non-mitochondrial apoptosis pathways. Dual immunofluorescence labeling of a keratinocyte migration promoting protein, laminin γ2 and GRP78/BIP, showed colocalization of the two molecules 72 h post exposure indicating that the laminin γ2 was misfolded after SM exposure and trapped within the ER. Taken together, these data show that ER stress is induced in mouse skin within 24 h of vesicant exposure in a defensive response to promote cell survival; however, it appears that this response is rapidly overwhelmed by the apoptotic pathway as a consequence of severe SM-induced injury. - Highlights: ► We demonstrated ER stress response in the mouse ear vesicant model. ► We described the asymmetrical nature of wound repair in the MEVM. ► We identified the distribution of various ER stress markers in the MEVM.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗