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At least 775 records · Page 43

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DOE OSTI2014

Flexible Coal: An Example Evolution from Baseload to Peaking Plant (Presentation)

Twenty-first century power systems, with higher penetration levels of low-carbon energy, smart grids, and other emerging technologies, will favor resources that have low marginal costs and provide system flexibility (e.g., the ability to cycle on and off to follow changes in variable renewable energy plant output). Questions remain about both the fate of coal plants in this scenario and whether they can cost-effectively continue to operate if they cycle routinely. The experience from the CGS plant demonstrates that coal plants can become flexible resources. This flexibility - namely the ability to cycle on and off and run at lower output (below 40% of capacity) - requires limited hardware modifications but extensive modifications to operational practice. Cycling does damage the plant and impact its life expectancy compared to baseload operations. Nevertheless, strategic modifications, proactive inspections and training programs, among other operational changes to accommodate cycling, can minimize the extent of damage and optimize the cost of maintenance. CGS's cycling, but not necessarily the associated price tag, is replicable. Context - namely, power market opportunities and composition of the generation fleet - will help determine for other coal plants the optimal balance between the level of cycling-related forced outages and the level of capital investment required to minimize those outages. Replicating CGS's experience elsewhere will likely require a higher acceptance of forced outages than regulators and plant operators are accustomed to; however, an increase in strategic maintenance can minimize the impact on outage rates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Models for Mapping Groundwater Pollution Risk: Advancing Water Security and Sustainable Development Goals in Georgia, USA

The widespread use of pesticides, such as atrazine and malathion, in agricultural systems raises significant concerns regarding the contamination of groundwater, which serves as a critical resource for drinking water. This study applies machine learning techniques to predict the concentrations of atrazine and malathion in groundwater across Georgia, USA, using 2019 data. A Random Forest classifier was employed to integrate various environmental and demographic factors, including pesticide application rates, precipitation, lithology, and population density, to predict pesticide contamination in groundwater. The models demonstrated high training accuracies of 100% and moderate average testing accuracy of 55% for atrazine and 60% for malathion across five iterations. The low test accuracy of the model, ranging from 50% to 75%, is likely due to overfitting, which can be attributed to the small dataset size and the complex nature of pesticide-contamination patterns, making it challenging for the model to generalize to unseen data. Feature importance analysis revealed that average pesticide usage emerged as the most influential factor for atrazine, while aquifer lithology and precipitation played crucial roles in both models. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of pesticide contamination, highlighting areas at greater risk of contamination. The findings underscore the importance of integrating environmental, geological, and agricultural variables for more effective groundwater management and sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to the protection of water resources and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Conceptual Framework to Describe Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Interactions

Energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) resources provide important utility system and ratepayer benefits. At the same time, the rapid change in the amount and type of variable renewable energy, like solar and wind, is reshaping the role and economic value of EE and DR, and will likely affect time-dependent valuation of EE and DR measures. Utilities are increasingly interested in integrating EE and DR measures and technologies (as well as other distributed energy resources) as a strategic approach to improve their collective cost-effectiveness and performance. However, the specific EE and DR features that may be best integrated, the interplay between changing EE and DR resource potential, and the resulting utility system impacts, are not well understood. We develop a framework to identify the EE and DR attributes, system conditions, and technological factors that are likely to drive interactions between EE and DR. We apply the framework to example measures with different technology specifics (e.g., presence of controls, building type, and targeted end use) in the context of different system conditions (e.g., peak demand, load-building periods during high renewable generation output). Ultimately, the framework defines EE and DR interactions not only by the change in discretionary load (i.e., DR potential) but also by the change in likelihood of participation in EE and DR programs—as well as the change in system need for, and the overall availability of, EE and DR resources. The framework is intended to improve the integration of EE and DR in utility operational and planning activities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2022

Midwest Water Resources II: Evaluating Evapotranspiration with NASA Earth Observations and In Situ Observations to Understand Water Balance in Midwest Agriculture

Seasonal water variability in the midwestern United States extensively affects the agricultural community, as it impacts irrigation schedules, growing seasons, and overall ecosystem function. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical climatic variable in the water cycle and is used to evaluate spatiotemporal trends in drought and flood conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Midwest Climate Hub, the Minnesota Department of Agriculture, the Illinois State Water Survey, and Michigan State University to compare remotely sensed ET products with in situ observations from January 2001 through December 2020. Remotely sensed actual ET (aET) data were sourced from NASA’s Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and reference ET (refET) data were derived from the Gridded Surface Meteorological (gridMET) dataset. For in situ comparison, aET data were downloaded from the AmeriFlux database while refET data were collected from the Illinois Climate Network and Michigan State University’s Enviro-weather database. For a holistic assessment of ET, this project generated comparisons between remotely sensed and in situ observations, calculated descriptive statistics for validation between refET datasets, and spatially produced statistical validation maps regarding in situ sites. The temporal and spatial gaps of AmeriFlux data limited aET analysis. This comparative assessment of ET products across the Midwest can be used by project partners to assess regional water trends and guide future land management decisions.

Addison Pletcher↗

DOE OSTI2025

CMIP7 data request: impacts and adaptation priorities and opportunities

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) undertook an extensive process to gather community input and refine data requests related to impacts and adaptation applications of Earth System Model (ESM) outputs. The Impacts and Adaptation (I&A) Data Request Team worked with CMIP7 leadership to distribute an open solicitation across many communities that use climate model outputs requesting inputs for new and existing variables, the most applicable temporal characteristics, and groupings of variables that together allow for specific application opportunities. This input was then collated and translated into CMIP7 standard templates for inclusion in the broader data request, leading to 13 I&A data request opportunities, 60 variable groups and 539 unique variables sought by vulnerability, impacts, adaptation, and climate services user communities. Here, we describe these opportunities and variable groups, as well as new insights into how ESM groups can prioritize outputs that set off a chain of further analyses, ultimately informing decisions impacting society and natural systems. These include an emphasis on high-resolution outputs to allow further modeling of climate impacts at regional and local scales, improved representation of extreme weather events, enhanced accuracy of downscaling and bias-adjustment techniques, and support for more detailed assessments for decision-making in adaptation and mitigation strategies. There is also broad interest in more extensive provisioning of two-dimensional variables at the Earth's surface, prioritizing experiments that enhance our understanding of both the recent past and future scenarios, and providing outputs that allow further downscaling and bias adjustment. We emphasize that variable groups are the fundamental level at which to engage with the I&A data request, matching the scale of input and the way output provision enables specific I&A applications. Given resource constraints, we applaud CMIP7 efforts to foster strong engagement and communication between ESM groups and the I&A team to build consensus around prudent compromises in priority variables, temporal resolutions, simulation experiments, time subsets, and ensemble members.

Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studi↗

DOE OSTI2025

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Burned forests impact water supplies

Wildland fire impacts on surface freshwater resources have not previously been measured, nor factored into regional water management strategies. But, large wildland fires are increasing and raise concerns about fire impacts on potable water. Here we synthesize long-term records of wildland fire, climate, and river flow for 168 locations across the United States. We show that annual river flow changed in 32 locations, where more than 19% of the basin area was burned. Wildland fires enhanced annual river flow in the western regions with a warm temperate or humid continental climate. Wildland fires increased annual river flow most in the semi-arid Lower Colorado region, in spite of frequent droughts in this region. In contrast, prescribed burns in the subtropical Southeast did not significantly alter river flow. These extremely variable outcomes offer new insights into the potential role of wildfire and prescribed fire in regional water resource management, under a changing climate.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2018

Environmental resource deficit may drive the evolution of intraspecific trait variation in invasive plant populations

Intraspecific trait variation within natural populations (i.e. intra-population trait variation, IPTV) is the basic source for selection and can have significant ecological consequences. Higher IPTV may increase a population's niche breath and benefit interspecies competition under a resource-limited environment, thus affecting the ability of a species to move into novel habitats. However, the reciprocal influences of variation in environmental conditions and phenotypic trait expression in spreading plant populations are not clearly defined. Here, we propose that during invasion, IPTV and its relative change in response to key resource enrichment may increase with the resource deficit of invaded sites, and that this relationship may facilitate plant invasions into resource-limited environments. We analyzed the invasion trend, IPTV and its response to water enrichment, and moisture variability among populations of an annual grass Brachypodium hybridum in California, United States. We incorporated a genotyping-by-sequencing approach, a common garden experiment that had two water level treatments, and public plant and climate databases. Our hypothesis was supported by the observation that for populations that invaded sites with higher spring moisture deficit, both their seed biomass IPTV (for the water-enriched treatment only) and relative change of the IPTV across water treatments were larger when examined in the common garden experiment. A generally north to south spreading direction was found in these B. hybridum populations, towards a drier and warmer climate exhibiting higher moisture deficit for plant growth. Our results suggest a role for interactions between IPTV (rather than trait means) and environmental resource availability in promoting plant invasions, providing new insights into the significance of IPTV in shaping plant geographic distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The curtailment paradox in the transition to high solar power systems

Not Available

Frew, Bethany↗

DOE OSTI2017

Data-Driven Stochastic Transmission Expansion Planning

Due to the significant improvements of power generation technologies and the trend of replacing traditional power plants with renewable generation resources, the generation portfolio will experience dramatic changes in the near future. The uncertainty and variability of renewable energy and their sitting call for strategic and economic plans for expanding the transmission capacities. In this study, we develop a data-driven two-stage stochastic transmission expansion planning with uncertainties. In the proposed approach, purely by learning from the historical data, we first construct a confidence set for the unknown distribution of the uncertain parameters. Then, we develop a two-stage data-driven transmission expansion framework, by considering the worst-case distribution within the constructed confidence set, so as to provide a reliable while economic transmission planning decision. Furthermore, to tackle the model complexity, we propose a decomposition framework embedded with Benders' and Column-and-Constraint generation methods. We implement our approach on 6-bus and 118-bus systems to test its effectiveness. Finally, we show as the amount of historical data grows, the conservativeness of the model decreases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Network structure of vertebrate scavenger assemblages at the global scale: drivers and ecosystem functioning implications

The organization of ecological assemblages has important implications for ecosystem functioning, but little is known about how scavenger communities organize at the global scale. Here, we test four hypotheses on the factors affecting the network structure of terrestrial vertebrate scavenger assemblages and its implications on ecosystem functioning. We expect scavenger assemblages to be more nested (i.e. structured): 1) in species-rich and productive regions, as nestedness has been linked to high competition for carrion resources, and 2) regions with low human impact, because the most efficient carrion consumers that promote nestedness are large vertebrate scavengers, which are especially sensitive to human persecution. 3) We also expect climatic conditions to affect assemblage structure, because some scavenger assemblages have been shown to be more nested in colder months. Finally, 4) we expect more organized assemblages to be more efficient in the consumption of the resource. We first analyzed the relationship between the nestedness of the scavenger assemblages and climatic variables (i.e. temperature, precipitation, temperature variability and precipitation variability), ecosystem productivity and biomass (i.e. NDVI) and degree of human impact (i.e. human footprint) using 53 study sites in 22 countries across five continents. Then, we related structure (i.e. nestedness) with its function (i.e. carrion consumption rate). We found a more nested structure for scavenger assemblages in regions with higher NDVI values and lower human footprint. Moreover, more organized assemblages were more efficient in the consumption of carrion. However, our results did not support the prediction that the structure of the scavenger assemblages is directly related to climate. Our findings suggest that the nested structure of vertebrate scavenger assemblages affects its functionality and is driven by anthropogenic disturbance and ecosystem productivity worldwide. Disarray of scavenger assemblage structure by anthropogenic disturbance may lead to decreases in functionality of the terrestrial ecosystems via loss of key species and trophic facilitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Development of a dynamic quality assurance testing protocol for multisite clinical trial DCE-CT accreditation

Purpose: Credentialing can have an impact on whether or not a clinical trial produces useful quality data that is comparable between various institutions and scanners. With the recent increase of dynamic contrast enhanced-computed tomography (DCE-CT) usage as a companion biomarker in clinical trials, effective quality assurance, and control methods are required to ensure there is minimal deviation in the results between different scanners and protocols at various institutions. This paper attempts to address this problem by utilizing a dynamic flow imaging phantom to develop and evaluate a DCE-CT quality assurance (QA) protocol.Methods: A previously designed flow phantom, capable of producing predictable and reproducible time concentration curves from contrast injection was fully validated and then utilized to design a DCE-CT QA protocol. The QA protocol involved a set of quantitative metrics including injected and total mass error, as well as goodness of fit comparison to the known truth concentration curves. An additional region of interest (ROI) sensitivity analysis was also developed to provide additional details on intrascanner variability and determine appropriate ROI sizes for quantitative analysis. Both the QA protocol and ROI sensitivity analysis were utilized to test variations in DCE-CT results using different imaging parameters (tube voltage and current) as well as alternate reconstruction methods and imaging techniques. The developed QA protocol and ROI sensitivity analysis was then applied at three institutions that were part of clinical trial involving DCE-CT and results were compared.Results: The inherent specificity of robustness of the phantom was determined through calculation of the total intraday variability and determined to be less than 2.2 ± 1.1% (total calculated output contrast mass error) with a goodness of fit (R{sup 2}) of greater than 0.99 ± 0.0035 (n= 10). The DCE-CT QA protocol was capable of detecting significant deviations from the expected phantom result when scanning at low mAs and low kVp in terms of quantitative metrics (Injected Mass Error 15.4%), goodness of fit (R{sup 2}) of 0.91, and ROI sensitivity (increase in minimum input function ROI radius by 146 ± 86%). These tests also confirmed that the ASIR reconstruction process was beneficial in reducing noise without substantially increasing partial volume effects and that vendor specific modes (e.g., axial shuttle) did not significantly affect the phantom results. The phantom and QA protocol were finally able to quickly (<90 min) and successfully validate the DCE-CT imaging protocol utilized at the three separate institutions of a multicenter clinical trial; thereby enhancing the confidence in the patient data collected.Conclusions: A DCE QA protocol was developed that, in combination with a dynamic multimodality flow phantom, allows the intrascanner variability to be separated from other sources of variability such as the impact of injection protocol and ROI selection. This provides a valuable resource that can be utilized at various clinical trial institutions to test conformance with imaging protocols and accuracy requirements as well as ensure that the scanners are performing as expected for dynamic scans.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Estimation by Scientific Data Mining with Classical Methods to Automate Learning Strategies of Scientists

Experimental results are often plotted as 2-dimensional graphical plots (aka graphs) in scientific domains depicting dependent versus independent variables to aid visual analysis of processes. Repeatedly performing laboratory experiments consumes significant time and resources, motivating the need for computational estimation. The goals are to estimate the graph obtained in an experiment given its input conditions, and to estimate the conditions that would lead to a desired graph. Existing estimation approaches often do not meet accuracy and efficiency needs of targeted applications. We develop a computational estimation approach called AutoDomainMine that integrates clustering and classification over complex scientific data in a framework so as to automate classical learning methods of scientists. Knowledge discovered thereby from a database of existing experiments serves as the basis for estimation. Challenges include preserving domain semantics in clustering, finding matching strategies in classification, striking a good balance between elaboration and conciseness while displaying estimation results based on needs of targeted users, and deriving objective measures to capture subjective user interests. These and other challenges are addressed in this work. The AutoDomainMine approach is used to build a computational estimation system, rigorously evaluated with real data in Materials Science. Our evaluation confirms that AutoDomainMine provides desired accuracy and efficiency in computational estimation. It is extendable to other science and engineering domains as proved by adaptation of its sub-processes within fields such as Bioinformatics and Nanotechnology.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2011

NREL Confirms Large Potential for Grid Integration of Wind, Solar Power (Fact Sheet)

To fully harvest the nation's bountiful wind and solar resources, it is critical to know how much electrical power from these renewable resources could be integrated reliably into the grid. To inform the discussion about the potential of such variable sources, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) launched two key regional studies, examining the east and west sections of the U.S. power grid. The studies show that it is technically possible for U.S. power systems to integrate 20%-35% renewable electricity if infrastructure and operational improvements can be made.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Contingency Contractor Optimization: Phase 3, Model Description and Formulation

The goal of Phase 3 the OSD ATL Contingency Contractor Optimization (CCO) project is to create an engineering prototype of a tool for the contingency contractor element of total force planning during the Support for Strategic Analysis (SSA). An optimization model was developed to determine the optimal mix of military, Department of Defense (DoD) civilians, and contractors that accomplishes a set of user defined mission requirements at the lowest possible cost while honoring resource limitations and manpower use rules. An additional feature allows the model to understand the variability of the Total Force Mix when there is uncertainty in mission requirements.

Gearhart, Jared Lee↗

DOE OSTI2013

Contingency contractor optimization.

Gearhart, Jared Lee↗

DOE OSTI2017

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Second Edition

As the world looks for low-carbon sources of energy, solar power stands out as the single most abundant energy resource on Earth. Harnessing this energy is the challenge for this century. Photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power (CSP) are primary forms of energy applications using sunlight. These solar energy systems use different technologies, collect different fractions of the solar resource, and have different siting requirements and production capabilities. Reliable information about the solar resource is required for every solar energy application. This holds true for small installations on a rooftop as well as for large solar power plants; however, solar resource information is of particular interest for large installations, because they require substantial investment, sometimes exceeding 1 billion dollars in construction costs. Before such a project is undertaken, the best possible information about the quality and reliability of the fuel source must be made available. That is, project developers need reliable data about the solar resource available at specific locations, including historic trends with seasonal, daily, hourly, and (preferably) subhourly variability to predict the daily and annual performance of a proposed power plant. Without this data, an accurate financial analysis is not possible. Additionally, with the deployment of large amounts of distributed photovoltaics, there is an urgent need to integrate this source of generation to ensure the reliability and stability of the grid. Forecasting generation from the various sources will allow for larger penetrations of these generation sources because utilities and system operators can then ensure stable grid operations. Developed by the foremost experts in the field who have come together under the umbrella of the International Energy Agency's Solar Heating and Cooling Task 46, this handbook summarizes state-of-the-art information about all the above topics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrating System to Edge-of-Network Architecture and Management for SHINES (SEAMS) Technologies of High Penetration Grids

Consistent with the U.S. DOE’s EERE SHINES FOA objectives, the goal of this project was to enable integration from EMS to variable DER in a way that delivered visibility and opportunities for managing and controlling distributed resources using SEAMS technologies. This project implemented several SHINES technologies, which included: (1) three Stem battery systems; (2) six ConnectDER PV collars; (3) two E-Gear PV/Battery storage interfaces; and (4) eight Kitu smart inverter emulators. A Siemens Energy IP DEMS was deployed in a development environment and integrated with the SHINES technologies via OpenADR and IEEE 2030.5 protocols with documented architecture. In the case of IEEE 2030.5, a suite of technologies including a gateway, an API, software and a server from Kitu Systems (the Citadel, Convoy, Kitu Crosslink API, and Kitu Spark) were used to demonstrate that the utility could achieve visibility of distributed energy resources (DER) and control of single and multiple DER systems with a single command. The project also included a LCOE analysis of SHINES technologies compared to traditional system and circuit mitigation measures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗