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At least 775 records · Page 43

Analysis of 2015 Winter In-Flight Icing Case Studies with Ground-Based Remote Sensing Systems Compared to In-Situ SLW Sondes

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have developed an icing remote sensing technology that has demonstrated skill at detecting and classifying icing hazards in a vertical column above an instrumented ground station. This technology has recently been extended to provide volumetric coverage surrounding an airport. Building on the existing vertical pointing system, the new method for providing volumetric coverage utilizes a vertical pointing cloud radar, a multi-frequency microwave radiometer with azimuth and elevation pointing, and a NEXRAD radar. The new terminal area icing remote sensing system processes the data streams from these instruments to derive temperature, liquid water content, and cloud droplet size for each examined point in space. These data are then combined to ultimately provide icing hazard classification along defined approach paths into an airport. To date, statistical comparisons of the vertical profiling technology have been made to Pilot Reports and Icing Forecast Products. With the extension into relatively large area coverage and the output of microphysical properties in addition to icing severity, the use of these comparators is not appropriate and a more rigorous assessment is required. NASA conducted a field campaign during the early months of 2015 to develop a database to enable the assessment of the new terminal area icing remote sensing system and further refinement of terminal area icing weather information technologies in general. In addition to the ground-based remote sensors listed earlier, in-situ icing environment measurements by weather balloons were performed to produce a comprehensive comparison database. Balloon data gathered consisted of temperature, humidity, pressure, super-cooled liquid water content, and 3-D position with time. Comparison data plots of weather balloon and remote measurements, weather balloon flight paths, bulk comparisons of integrated liquid water content and icing cloud extent agreement, and terminal-area hazard displays are presented. Discussions of agreement quality and paths for future development are also included.

aviation meteorology↗

The Relationships Between Insoluble Precipitation Residues, Clouds, and Precipitation Over California's Southern Sierra Nevada During Winter Storms

Ice formation in orographic mixed-phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INP). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for regions such as the California Sierra Nevada. Thus, a better understanding of the sources of INP that impact orographic clouds is important for assessing water availability in California. This study presents a multi-site, multi-year analysis of single particle insoluble residues in precipitation samples that likely influenced cloud ice and precipitation formation above Yosemite National Park. Dust and biological particles represented the dominant fraction of the residues (64% on average). Cloud glaciation, determined using GOES satellite observations, not only depended on high cloud tops (greater than 6.2 km) and low temperatures (less than -26 C), but also on the composition of the dust and biological residues. The greatest prevalence of ice-phase clouds occurred in conjunction with biologically-rich residues and mineral dust rich in calcium, followed by iron and aluminosilicates. Dust and biological particles are known to be efficient INP, thus these residues are what likely influenced ice formation in clouds above the sites and subsequent precipitation quantities reaching the surface during events with similar meteorology. The goal of this study is to use precipitation chemistry information to gain a better understanding of the potential sources of INP in the south-central Sierra Nevada, where cloud-aerosol-precipitation interactions are under-studied and where mixed-phase orographic clouds represent a key element in the generation of precipitation and thus the water supply in California.

Creamean, Jessie M.↗

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: North Pacific and North America

The prominence of nonlinearities in the response to El Niño as compared to La Niña, to moderate El Niño events as compared to extreme El Ninño events, and to different flavors of El Niño events, are analyzed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. In the Central North Pacific region where the sea level pressure response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks, nonlinearities are relatively muted. In contrast, changes to the east of this region (i.e. the far-Northeastern Pacific) and to the north of this region (over Alaska) in response to different ENSO phases are more clearly nonlinear, and become statistically robust after more than 15 events are considered. The relative prominence of these nonlinearities is related to the zonal wavenumber of the tropical precipitation response. Associated with these nonlinearities over the far-Northeastern Pacific are nonlinearities in precipitation over Western United States and surface temperature over Northwest North America and Midwestern United States. In all regions at least 15 events of each type are necessary before nonlinearities can be identified as statistically significant at the 95% confidence level due to the presence of internal atmospheric variability. As there have only been a similar number of ENSO events to the total needed for significance since 1920, it is not surprising that it has been difficult to establish statistically significant nonlinearities using observational data.

Nonlinearities↗

Maps Suggest Transport and Source Processes of PM2.5 at 1 km x 1 km for the Whole San Joaquin Valley, Winter 2011 (Generalizations from DISCOVER-AQ)

We present interpreted data analysis using MAIAC (Multiangle implementation of Atmospheric Correction) retrievals and appropriate RAPid Update Cycle (RAP) meteorology to map respirable aerosol (PM2.5) for the period January and February, 2011. The San Joaquin Valley is one of the unhealthiest regions in the USA for PM2.5 and related morbidity. The methodology evaluated can be used for the entire moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS, VIIRS) data record. Other difficult areas of the West: Riverside, CA, Salt Lake City, UT, and Doa Ana County, NM share similar difficulties and solutions. The maps of boundary layer depth for 1116 hr local time from RAP allows us to interpret aerosol optical thickness as a concentration of particles in a nearly well-mixed box capped by clean air. That mixing is demonstrated by DISCOVER-AQ data and afternoon samples from the airborne measurements, P3B (on-board) and B200 (HSRL2 lidar). This data and the PM2.5 gathered at the deployment sites allowed us to estimate and then evaluate consistency and daily variation of the AOT to PM2.5 relationship. Mixed-effects modeling allowed a refinement of that relation from day to day; RAP mixed layers explained the success of previous mixed-effects modeling. Compositional, size-distribution, and MODIS angle-of-regard effects seem to describe the need for residual daily correction beyond ML depth.We report on an extension method to the entire San Joaquin Valley for all days with MODIS imagery using the permanent PM2.5 stations, evaluated for representativeness. Resulting map movies show distinct sources, particularly Interstate-5 (at approx. 1km x 1km resolution) and the broader Bakersfield area. Accompanying winds suggest transport effects and variable pathways of pollution cleanout. Such estimates should allow morbiditymortality studies. They should be also useful for actual model assimilations, where composition and sources are uncertain. We conclude with a description of new work to extend these insights to similar regions, e.g. interior valleys of California, the Po Valley, the Mediterranean litoral, and the Ganges Plain.This work show generalizable use of remote sensing, a major goal of DISCOVER-AQ, Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from COlumn and VERtically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality.

Chatfield, R.↗

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: Arctic Stratosphere and Europe

The salience of nonlinearities in the Arctic stratospheric response to El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated in a 41 member ensemble of the period 1980 to 2009 in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. Central Pacific El Niño (CP EN) events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 2, while Eastern Pacific El Niño (EP EN) events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 1, though these nonlinearities become statistically robust only after more than 45 events are considered. This leads to a difference in the morphology of SSW events preferentially forced by each ENSO flavor. While the zonal-mean Arctic stratospheric response is little different between EP and CP EN once one accounts for the relative weakness of CP events, the tropospheric subpolar negative North Atlantic Oscillation response is stronger for CP events. Other nonlinearities are even less salient: there is no indication of any nonlinearities in the wave driving between moderate EP EN and extreme EP EN, nor between EN and La Niña (LN). However in approximately 15% of the integrations within our ensemble, there is no difference in SSW frequency between EN and LN, suggesting that a similar SSW frequency for both EN and LN, as has occurred over the past 60 years, can occur by chance. The intra-ensemble variability in LN SSW frequency can be related back to intra-ensemble variability in the tropospheric response to LN.

Arctic↗

The Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into Why January is More Difficult to Predict than February

This study examines the within−season monthly variation of the El Niño response over North America during December−March using the NASA/GEOS model. In agreement with previous studies, the skill of 1−month lead GEOS coupled model forecasts of precipitation over North America is largest (smallest) for February (January), with similar results in uncoupled mode. A key finding is that the relatively poor January skillis the result ofthe model placing the main circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific slightly to the west of the observed, resulting inprecipitation anomalies that lie off the coast instead of over land as observed. In contrast, during February the observed circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific shifts westward, lining up with the predicted anomaly which is essentially unchanged from January, resulting in both the observed and predicted precipitation anomalies remaining off the coast. Furthermore, the largest precipitation anomalies occur along the southern tier of states associated with an eastward extended jet–something that the models capture reasonably well. Simulations with a stationary wave model indicate that the placement of January El Niño response to the west of the observed over the northeast Pacificis the result of biases in the January climatological stationary waves, rather than errors in the tropical Pacific El Niño heating anomalies in January. Furthermore, evidence is provided that the relatively poor simulation of the observed January climatology, characterized by a strengthened North Pacific jet and enhanced ridge over western North America, can be traced back to biases in the January climatology heating over the Tibet region and the tropical western Pacific.

Young-kwon Lim↗