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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precursors to Extreme Wintertime Cold in the Midwest United States

ABSTRACT Cold air outbreaks (CAOs) are extreme weather events that affect millions of people every winter, including those in the US Midwest. Per our criteria (a sufficiently cold event over a wide area and a long period), we identified 43 wintertime CAOs in the Midwest region using data from 1980 to 2021 (approximately one per year). These occurred in the Midwest during three of five North American weather regimes. Two regimes' CAOs are related to a weak stratospheric polar vortex, consistent with previous research on CAOs in the neighbouring Great Plains region. A different regime, characterised by anomalous ridging along the west coast of North America, is the most common for Midwest CAOs, unlike in regions further to the west. Unlike the other two regimes, these so‐called West Coast Ridge CAOs have no clear stratospheric connection. West Coast Ridge CAOs are instead linked to tropospheric processes on synoptic timescales, usually preceded by a weaker than average mid‐tropospheric height gradient in the western Pacific about 10 days prior to CAO onset. Our results demonstrate a particular challenge for predicting some extreme events in the Midwest, with important implications for early warning systems.

Ryan, James M. [Department of Earth and Atmospheri↗
DOE OSTI2026

Continuous Counter‐Current Microfluidic Liquid–Liquid Extraction Achieved Using a Pair of Wettable Screen Meshes

Continuous counter‐current microfluidic liquid–liquid extraction performs separations by flowing immiscible liquids in opposing directions within a single flow channel. In principle, this flow arrangement enables a large number of theoretical separation units in a small footprint, without using interstage valving, pumping, and phase separation. Despite its potential for excellent separation performance, this microfluidic scheme rarely appears in literature due to the requirement for capillary forces to be greater than hydrodynamic forces for stable flow. We present a novel microfluidic device and flow approaches that overcome this force‐balance challenge, enabling stable, long‐duration continuous counter‐current flow. Additionally, we cover a suite of methodologies for quantifying the performance of the microfluidic device, revealing the number of theoretical equilibrium stages achieved. The enabling technologies include a woven mesh screen‐based microfluidic device architecture that is easily fabricated outside of a clean room, surface functionalization strategies to promote conjugate (organic/aqueous) wettability, flow approaches to eliminate bubbles and carryover, and computer‐aided flow automation with optical measurement of extraction performance. The reported experiments lasted for over 36 h, terminated only at experiment conclusion, where the device still exhibited good performance. Automated Raman spectroscopy was used for solute quantitation of the ternary system tert‐butanol in a toluene/water matrix, a ternary system that was specifically chosen to analyze the device's performance with a small solute partition ratio and to enable in‐line Raman measurements of solute concentrations in both phases. The microfluidic device possessed a 55 mm contact length and a 38.5 µL internal volume. During counter‐current flow, we observed approximately 37 equilibrium stages (37 ± 13) based on a best‐fit of the solute fraction remaining in the aqueous phase using a Kremser Group Method analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial mapping of dissolved methane using an in situ sensor in Puget Sound

Release of methane, as gas bubbles or in the dissolved phase, from the seafloor has been observed in coastal waters (< 200 m) and deep ocean basins (> 1000 m). Methane dissolution within the water column affects the geochemistry of the surrounding water, leading to localized oxygen loss and potential escape to the atmosphere, particularly from shallower sites. Traditional methods for detecting and quantifying dissolved methane rely on collecting discrete water samples for ship- or land-based ex situ analysis and post processing. Here, we report on the use of a reduced response time, in situ methane sensor, the Sensor for Aqueous Gases in the Environment (SAGE), for detecting and quantifying dissolved methane concentrations in a wide range of seafloor environments. During a Fall 2022 research cruise on the R/V Thomas G. Thompson in Puget Sound, SAGE was integrated onto a towed conductivity/temperature/depth rosette and deep-sea camera system with live-stream 1 Hz telemetry and used to spatially map the concentration of methane approximately 1 m above the seafloor. The site had been previously identified as an active methane plume field characterized by gas bubbles, fluid venting, and a faulted seabed. The widespread background dissolved concentration of methane measured by SAGE was 83 nM, and a range of 78–670 nM was observed throughout the survey. The results highlight the capacity of SAGE to map the spatial and temporal variability of dissolved methane concentrations in situ and to identify and localize sites of variable methane emissions from the seafloor.

Padilla, Alexandra M. [Woods Hole Oceanographic In↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthesis and Characterization of Methacrylamide-Based Block Random Copolymers via Amine Functionalization of Polystyrene- Block -Poly(Pentafluorophenyl Methacrylate) Toward Enhanced Amenability to Manufacturing Criteria in Nanolithography

Recent interest in manipulating the chemistry of block copolymers (BCPs) to manage the covarying properties necessary to meet manufacturing criteria in nanolithography has resulted in the development and expansion of the A-block-(B-random-C) BCP architecture, where the random block allows for the decoupling of thermodynamic and wetting properties. Previous reports of such BCPs have used click chemistry to create the desired random block, but all such instances possess additional functional groups that are susceptible to undesirable side reactions upon annealing, such as cross-linking and surface grafting. This study reports the substitution reaction of polystyrene-block-poly(pentafluorophenyl methacrylate) (PS-b-PPFMA) with primary amines. The resulting methacrylamide structure of the functionalized random block has only an amide linkage between the attached functional group and the polymer backbone, thereby omitting any sources of side reactions within the BCP. The outcomes of this report also demonstrate the enhanced thermal stability of these materials by virtue of their stable amide bonds. A range of random copolymer compositions is assessed to develop BCPs in which the random block has approximately the same surface energy as the PS block. These BCPs can self-assemble into perpendicular lamellae and are therefore promising candidates for directed self-assembly.

block copolymers↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable Interior‐Point Gauss–Newton Method for PDE‐Constrained Optimization With Bound Constraints

Here, we present a scalable approach to solve a class of partial differential equation (PDE)‐constrained optimization problems with bound constraints. This approach utilizes a robust full‐space interior‐point (IP)‐Gauss–Newton optimization method. To cope with the poorly‐conditioned IP‐Gauss–Newton saddle‐point linear systems that need to be solved approximately, once per optimization step, we propose two spectrally related preconditioners. These preconditioners leverage the limited informativeness of data in regularized PDE‐constrained optimization problems. A block Gauss–Seidel preconditioner is proposed for the GMRES‐based solution of the IP‐Gauss–Newton linear systems. It is shown, for a large‐class of PDE‐ and bound‐constrained optimization problems, that the spectrum of the block Gauss–Seidel preconditioned IP‐Gauss–Newton matrix is asymptotically independent of discretization and is not impacted by the ill‐conditioning that notoriously plagues interior‐point methods. We exploit symmetry of the IP‐Gauss–Newton linear systems and propose a regularization and log‐barrier Hessian preconditioner for the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG)‐based solution of the equivalent IP‐Gauss–Newton–Schur complement linear systems. The eigenvalues of the block Gauss–Seidel preconditioned IP‐Gauss–Newton matrix, that are not equal to one, are identical to the eigenvalues of the regularization and log‐barrier Hessian preconditioned Schur complement matrix. The scalability of the approach is demonstrated on two example problems. The numerical solution of these optimization problems is shown to require a discretization independent number of IP‐Gauss–Newton linear solves. Furthermore, the linear systems are solved in a discretization and IP ill‐conditioning independent number of preconditioned Krylov subspace iterations. The parallel scalability of the preconditioner, achieved via algebraic multigrid component solvers when applicable, and the aforementioned algorithmic scalability permits a parallel scalable means to compute solutions of a large class of PDE‐ and bound‐constrained problems.

PDE-constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kernel Manifolds: Nonlinear‐Augmentation Dimensionality Reduction Using Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces

This paper generalizes recent advances on quadratic manifold (QM) dimensionality reduction by developing kernel methods-based nonlinear-augmentation dimensionality reduction. QMs, and more generally feature map-based nonlinear corrections, augment linear dimensionality reduction with a nonlinear correction term in the reconstruction map to overcome approximation accuracy limitations of purely linear approaches. While feature map-based approaches typically learn a least squares optimal polynomial correction term, we generalize this approach by learning an optimal nonlinear correction from a user-defined reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Our approach allows one to impose arbitrary nonlinear structure on the correction term, including polynomial structure, and includes feature map and radial basis function-based corrections as special cases. Furthermore, our method has relatively low training cost and has monotonically decreasing error as the latent space dimension increases. In conclusion, we compare our approach to proper orthogonal decomposition and several recent QM approaches on data from several example problems.

kernel methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

First‐Order Empirical Interpolation Method for Real‐Time Solution of Parametric Time‐Dependent Nonlinear PDEs

ABSTRACT We present a model reduction approach for the real‐time solution of time‐dependent nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) with parametric dependencies. A major challenge in constructing efficient and accurate reduced‐order models for nonlinear PDEs is the efficient treatment of nonlinear terms. We address this by unifying the implementation of hyperreduction methods to deal with nonlinear terms. Furthermore, we introduce a first‐order empirical interpolation method (EIM) to provide an efficient approximation of the nonlinear terms in time‐dependent PDEs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on the Allen–Cahn equation, which models phase separation, and the Buckley–Leverett equation, which describes two‐phase fluid flow in porous media. Numerical results highlight the accuracy, efficiency, and stability of the proposed method compared with both the Galerkin–Newton approach and hyper‐reduced models using the standard EIM.

Nguyen, Ngoc Cuong [Center for Computational Engin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Central Compact Finite‐Difference Scheme With High Spectral Resolution for KdV Equation

This work presents a combination of cell‐node and cell‐centered compact finite difference scheme for the approximation of third derivatives involved in Korteweg–de Vries (KdV) equations. This approach employs a half‐shifted derivative construction at cell centers, avoiding the need for compact interpolation, thereby removing transfer errors; hence, it improves spectral resolution and maintains high‐order accuracy. Fourier analysis is performed to show the spectral properties of the proposed formulation, which provides higher spectral resolutions as compared to node‐based compact schemes. A filtering strategy is incorporated to suppress high‐frequency oscillations without compromising the accuracy of the numerical scheme, and the total variation diminishing Runge Kutta (TVDRK3) method is applied for time integration. Numerical experiments on linear, nonlinear, and coupled KdV systems are conducted, and a comparative analysis with cell‐node compact schemes confirms that the proposed scheme consistently reduces errors by up to an order of magnitude and achieves high spectral resolution properties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Additive manufacturing of sandwich panels with continuous fiber reinforced high modulus composite facings

Abstract An improved approach consisting of a combination of fiber placement and fused filament fabrication is introduced for the additive manufacture (AM) of structural grade sandwich beams. Here, sandwich beams are additively manufactured using in‐situ deposition and consolidation of continuous fiber unidirectional facings made from a commingled yarn system of e‐glass fiber (~50% vol.) and amorphous PET, and a hexagonal honeycomb core structure made from PETG. Both facings and the sandwich core are manufactured on a single machine, in one sequence (skin‐core‐skin), employing the benefit of matrix compatibility to create autohesion at the interfaces. Flexural and transverse shear rigidity are determined experimentally and compared with analytical predictions and show correlation to within 3%. Flexural strength and core shear strength are also measured. Post‐mortem examinations show that core fracture and core facing debond were the dominant failure mode in flexure. Single cantilever beam tests were performed to evaluate core facing debond toughness. Subsequently, surface preheat using infrared heaters was utilized to increase autohesion between core and facing. The results show debond toughness was increased 4 times using infrared heating. This research effort presents a manufacturing approach that has the potential for the AM of stiff, well bonded, structural grade sandwich beams, in an integrated sequence, employing in‐situ consolidation to the facings, without the need for the use of intermediate adhesives for skin‐to‐core bonding. Highlights An improved additive manufacturing technique for making sandwich panels is developed. Sandwich panel facings have fiber volume fractions of approximately 50%. Surface preheat improves core‐to‐facing debond toughness by a factor of 4. Top and bottom facings are consolidated during manufacture leading to better properties. Experimental results are compared to analytical predictions and show good correlation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of laminae count and manufacturing methods on mechanical properties of thin‐ply woven composites

Abstract Thin‐ply woven composites exhibit exceptional mechanical performance by delaying the onset of damage, making them suitable for high‐performance structural applications. This study outlines the impact of manufacturing techniques (vacuum bagging and hot pressing), ply count, and fiber waviness on the mechanical properties of aromatic thermosetting copolyester/carbon‐fiber (ATSP/CF) composites. The analysis encompasses several different ply counts, evaluating their effects on the in‐plane elastic modulus (0°–90°) and tensile strength. Results demonstrate that reducing the waviness (or crimp) ratio significantly enhances the in‐plane elastic modulus, with improvements up to 188%, highlighting the importance of fiber alignment. Vacuum bagging produced ply thicknesses from 128 to 58 μm for 1–36 plies, with in‐plane elastic moduli from 30.3 to 87.2 GPa, and 4‐ and 8‐ply samples showed approximately 40% higher stiffness than those made by hot pressing. ATSP resin with high thermal stability (up to 400°C) and recyclability was used. Furthermore, this study highlights the microstructural enhancements achieved through vacuum bagging, as revealed by scanning electron and optical microscopy, and micro‐computed tomography imaging. This paper provides insights into damage mitigation and achieving enhanced mechanical properties by controlling fiber waviness using vacuum bagging and higher ply count in thin‐ply ATSP/CF composites. Highlights Crimp ratio reduction enhances elastic in‐plane elastic modulus up to 188%. Vacuum bagging increases modulus over the hot pressing manufacturing method by 40%. Lowering thickness‐per‐ply increases failure strain from 0.8% to 1.2%. Explored the performance of a novel ATSP matrix with high recyclability and thermal stability.

Kushwaha, Shashank [The Grainger College of Engine↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis and characterization of biobased copolyesters based on pentanediol: (1) Poly(pentylene dodecanoate–co–furandicarboxylate)

A series of biobased aliphatic-aromatic copolyesters, poly(pentylene dodecanoate-co-furandicarboxylates) (PPeDFs) were synthesized via an esterification and polycondensation melt process. The copolyesters were characterized using gel permeation chromatography, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, 1 H NMR spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, thermogravimetric analysis, wide angle x-ray scattering, and tensile testing. The thermal transition behavior was strongly dependent on composition, with the melting and glass transition temperatures reaching a minimum at approximately equimolar ratio of D to F. All copolyesters were stable below 300°C with their R 600 (the weight of material remaining at 600°C) values increasing with F fraction. PPeD to PPeDF30 (e.g., mole ratio D/F = 7:3) show sharp PPeD crystalline reflections only while broad PPeF reflections are shown in PPeF and PPeDF90. PPeDF40 to PPeDF80 showed both crystal structures. The fractional crystallinity for the PPeD was much higher than PPeF and the fractional crystallinity of the copolymers showed a minimum at D/F ratios closer to the latter. Here, the stress at break and modulus both exhibited maxima at D/F ratios that were either high or low, but somewhat surprisingly a strong maximum in percent elongation at break of over 600% occurs at PPeDF40. For this composition, a typical plastic behavior curve was found including a yield point, high elongation at break, and strain hardening.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration of GaAs-Based Photovoltaics on Acoustically Spalled Surfaces Grown by MOCVD

This study demonstrates the potential of sonic lift-off (SLO) technology for repeatable substrate reuse in gallium arsenide (GaAs)–based photovoltaics (PVs), offering a pathway toward cost effective production for terrestrial PV applications. Single-junction GaAs solar cells fabricated on acoustically spalled substrates achieved performance metrics comparable with those grown on standard commercial substrates, exhibiting short-circuit current densities (J sc ) of approximately 26.2–26.4 mA/cm 2 , open-circuit voltages (V oc ) around 1001 mV, fill factors (FFs) of 84%, and AM1.5G efficiencies near 22%. These results confirm that one reuse cycle can be realized without a performance penalty, offering a direct pathway to reducing substrate cost in fabrication. Furthermore, subsequent reuse of the substrates highlighted critical challenges, as devices fabricated from reused substrates showed significant degradation in performance (J sc of 15.5 mA/cm 2 , V oc of 748 mV, FF of 72%, and efficiency of 8%), primarily due to degradation of the epitaxial structure resulting from repeated spalling cycles.

Acoustic Spalling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification Enabled by Automatic Differentiation for Hydrodynamic Simulation of Shock‐to‐Detonation Transition in High Explosives

Quantifying the effects of uncertainty in a reactive burn model on the run-to-detonation time in high explosives (HEs) provides a robust methodology for assessing the probability of an HE failing the IHE qualification standard. Moreover, uncertainty quantification helps evaluate whether the model calibration accurately represents data outside the calibration set. This study uses a specialized hydrodynamic simulation code for modeling detonation to determine the run-to-detonation time of the HE PBX 9502 for various impact velocities. To quickly approximate uncertainties in the model, a surrogate was constructed using a Taylor series expansion centered at the mean of the input parameters. To obtain the sensitivities required for constructing the Taylor series, HYP-percomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented. HYPAD is a methodology for infusing existing codes with automatic differentiation capabilities by augmenting variables with one or more imaginary units to compute step-size independent partial derivatives. These derivatives are accurate to machine precision with respect to the implemented numerical algorithm, meaning their accuracy reflects that of the underlying method (e.g., integration or discretization schemes). Using reduced order modeling techniques, the mean and standard deviation of the run-to-detonation time of a shock within PBX 9502 were computed for a number of initial impact velocities. A weighted least squares regression was then performed to obtain a best fit curve and prediction interval for the computed statistics. Historical data points from explosively driven wedge tests were utilized to validate the prediction interval, ensuring its reliability in predicting future outcomes. With this prediction interval and a known safety constraint curve, the most probable point of failure and the probability of failure for the HE PBX 9502 were determined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Higgs Inflation and the Electroweak Gauge Sector

Abstract We introduce a method that allows the Higgs to be the inflaton. The Higgs is considered as a pseudo‐Nambu‐Goldstone (pNG) boson of a global coset symmetry , which is spontaneously breaks at an energy scale . A suitable Chern−Simons (CS) interaction is given to it, with representing the dimensionless CS coupling strength and an decay constant. As a result, slow‐roll inflation occurs via ‐induced friction down a steep sinusoidal potential. To obey electroweak symmetry, the lowest‐order CS interaction is required to be quadratic in the Higgs, with the coupling strength . Higher‐order interaction terms keep the full Lagrangian nearly invariant under the approximate pNG shift symmetry. Employing the simplest symmetry coset , ‐folds of inflation occur when . Successfully explaining inflation necessitates small values of the decay constant, ; this in turn requires large , which is ruled out by electric dipole measurements. Although the electroweak hierarchy problem while achieving successful inflation, the real benefit is found in providing a different path to identifying the Higgs as the inflaton, outside the standard modified‐gravity framework.

Alexander, Stephon [Brown Center for Theoretical P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Analyses of Bioequivalence Assessment Methods for In Vitro Permeation Test Data

ABSTRACT For topical, dermatological drug products, an in vitro option to determine bioequivalence (BE) between test and reference products is recommended. In particular, in vitro permeation test (IVPT) data analysis uses a reference‐scaled approach for two primary endpoints, cumulative penetration amount (AMT) and maximum flux ( J max ), which takes the within donor variability into consideration. In 2022, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published a draft IVPT guidance that includes statistical analysis methods for both balanced and unbalanced cases of IVPT study data. This work presents a comprehensive evaluation of various methodologies used to estimate critical parameters essential in assessing BE. Specifically, we investigate the performance of the FDA draft IVPT guidance approach alongside alternative empirical and model‐based methods utilizing mixed‐effects models. Our analyses include both simulated scenarios and real‐world studies. In simulated scenarios, empirical formulas consistently demonstrate robustness in approximating the true model, particularly in effectively addressing treatment–donor interactions. Conversely, the effectiveness of model‐based approaches heavily relies on precise model selection, which significantly influences their results. The research emphasizes the importance of accurate model selection in model‐based BE assessment methodologies. It sheds light on the advantages of empirical formulas, highlighting their reliability compared to model‐based approaches and offers valuable implications for BE assessments. Our findings underscore the significance of robust methodologies and provide essential insights to advance their understanding and application in the assessment of BE, employed in IVPT data analysis.

Leon, Sami↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deriving Stable Peak Models to Fit Complex XPS Data From Cu Contaminated Pt Electrocatalysts

X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy spectra peak models, designed to partition photoemission signals emanating from different elements or chemical states within an atom, are fitted to data limited to an energy interval over which inelastically scattered photoemission signal can be estimated. While the choice of background approximation and line shapes of components to the peak model requires careful consideration, the energy interval used to define the data to which the peak model is optimized has a significant impact on the final peak model. The relationship between the background intensity and data intensity at the start and end of the energy interval dictates the line shapes used in the peak model. In this work, we devise a method to peak fit a complex overlapping Cu 3p and Pt 4f XPS peak structure to perform the elemental quantification. We first use an Al 2s peak to illustrate how background curves approach data at the limits of the energy interval over which the background is defined, influencing the analysis of XPS spectra. Next, we demonstrate the nature of interactions between specific line shapes (Voigt and pseudo-Voigt profiles) suitable for photoemission peaks and a specific background curve (Shirley) and a peak model is presented that includes components to the peak model that accommodates background intensity during fitting of the peak model to data. The peak model allowed for quantification of the contributions of Pt 4f peaks emanating from the substrate that exhibits strong asymmetry in the presence of the inhomogeneously distributed Cu species, mostly of Lorentzian character.

XPS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗