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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Russian anthropogenic black carbon: Emission reconstruction and Arctic black carbon simulation

Development of reliable source emission inventories is needed to advance the understanding of the origin of Arctic haze using chemical transport modeling. This paper develops a regional anthropogenic black carbon (BC) emission inventory for the Russian Federation, the largest country by land area in the Arctic Council. Activity data from combination of local Russia information and international resources, emission factors based on either Russian documents or adjusted values for local conditions, and other emission source data are used to approximate the BC emissions. Emissions are gridded at a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and developed into a monthly temporal profile. Total anthropogenic BC emission of Russia in 2010 is estimated to be around 224 Gg. Gas flaring, a commonly ignored black carbon source, contributes a significant fraction of 36.2% to Russia's total anthropogenic BC emissions. Other sectors, i.e., residential, transportation, industry, and power plants, contribute 25.0%, 20.3%, 13.1%, and 5.4%, respectively. Three major BC hot spot regions are identified: the European part of Russia, the southern central part of Russia where human population densities are relatively high, and the Urals Federal District where Russia's major oil and gas fields are located but with sparse human population. BC simulations are conducted using the hemispheric version of Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model with emission inputs from a global emission database EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research)-HTAPv2 (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) and EDGAR-HTAPv2 with its Russian part replaced by the newly developed Russian BC emissions, respectively. The simulation using the new Russian BC emission inventory could improve 30–65% of absorption aerosol optical depth measured at the AERONET sites in Russia throughout the whole year as compared to that using the default HTAPv2 emissions. At the four ground monitoring sites (Zeppelin, Barrow, Alert, and Tiksi) in the Arctic Circle, surface BC simulations are improved the most during the Arctic haze periods (October–March). The poor performance of Arctic BC simulations in previous studies may be partly ascribed to the Russian BC emissions built on out-of-date and/or missing information, which could result in biases to both emission rates and the spatial distribution of emissions. Finally, this study highlights that the impact of Russian emissions on the Arctic haze has likely been underestimated, and its role in the Arctic climate system needs to be reassessed. The Russian black carbon emission source data generated in this study can be obtained via http://abci.ornl.gov/download.shtml or http://acs.engr.utk.edu/Data.php.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-682: In-Vivo Simulation of the Relative Biological Effectiveness in Proton Therapy Using a Monte Carlo Method

Purpose: In proton therapy, the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) – compared with conventional photon therapy – is routinely set to 1.1. However, experimental in vitro studies indicate evidence for the variability of the RBE. To clarify the impact on patient treatment, investigation of the RBE in a preclinical case study should be performed. Methods: The Monte Carlo software TOPAS was used to simulate the radiation field of an irradiation setup at the experimental beamline of the proton therapy facility (OncoRay) in Dresden, Germany. Simulations were performed on cone beam CT-data (CBCT) of a xenogeneous mouse with an orthotopic lung carcinoma obtained by an in-house developed small animal image-guided radiotherapy device. A homogeneous physical fraction dose of 1.8Gy was prescribed for the contoured tumor volume. Simulated dose and linear energy transfer distributions were used to estimate RBE values in the mouse based on an RBE model by Wedenberg et al. To characterize radiation sensitivity of normal and tumor tissue, α/β-ratios were taken from the literature for NB1RGB (10.1Gy) and human squamous lung cancer (6.2Gy) cell lines, respectively. Results: Good dose coverage of the target volume was achieved with a spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP). The contra-lateral lung was completely spared from receiving radiation. An increase in RBE towards the distal end of the SOBP from 1.07 to 1.35 and from 1.05 to 1.3 was observed when considering normal tissue and tumor, respectively, with the highest RBE values located distal to the target volume. Conclusion: Modeled RBE values simulated on CBCT for experimental preclinical proton therapy varied with tissue type and depth in a mouse and differed therefore from a constant value of 1.1. Further translational work will include, first, conducting preclinical experiments and, second, analogous RBE studies in patients using experimentally verified simulation settings for our clinically used patient-specific beam conforming technique.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Visual feedback and guided balance training in an immersive virtual reality environment for lower extremity rehabilitation

Balance training is essential for physical rehabilitation procedures, as it can improve functional mobility and enhance cognitive coordination. However, conventional balance training methods may have limitations in terms of motivation, real-time objective feedback, and personalization, which a virtual reality (VR) setup may provide a better alternative. In this work, we present an immersive VR training environment for lower extremity balance rehabilitation with real-time guidance and feedback. The VR training environment immerses the user in a 3D ice rink model where a virtual coach (agent) leads them through a series of balance poses, and the user controls a trainee avatar with their own movements. Here we developed two coaching styles: positive-reinforcement and autonomous-supportive, and two viewpoints of the trainee avatar: first-person and third-person. The proposed environment was evaluated in a user study with healthy, non-clinical participants (n = 16, 24.4 ± 5.7 years old, 9 females). Our results show that participants showed stronger performance in the positive-reinforcement style compared to the autonomous-supportive style. Additionally, in the third-person viewpoint, the participants exhibited more stability in the positive-reinforcement style compared to the autonomous-supportive style. For viewpoint, participants exhibited stronger performance in the first-person viewpoint compared to third-person in the autonomous-supportive style, while they were comparable in the positive-reinforcement style. We observed no significant effects on the foot height and number of mistakes. Furthermore, we report the analysis of user performance with balance training poses and subjective measures based on questionnaires to assess the user experience, usability, and task load. The proposed VR balance training could offer an interactive, adaptive, and engaging environment and open new potential research directions for lower extremity rehabilitation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Enabled Fusion Technology (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Advancing Scientific Understanding in Fusion Energy and Machine Learning This research represented a significant step forward in machine learning (ML) applications for fusion energy experiments. The project integrated advanced data-driven modeling, optimization techniques, and artificial intelligence to enhance the predictive capabilities and operational efficiency of plasma-based fusion systems. Specifically, tasks focused on ML-enhanced diagnostics, operator guidance tools, and predictive modeling helped improve the ability to interpret complex fusion experiments. Key areas of advancement included: 1) data-driven plasma control, i.e., using ML algorithms to optimize experimental conditions and classify plasma behaviors based on historical data; 2) spectroscopy and diagnostics, i.e., applying AI models to extract previously inaccessible insights from experimental spectroscopy data; and 3) configuration mapping and operator guidance, i.e., developing a predictive framework to assist scientists in identifying the most effective experimental parameters, reducing reliance on manual adjustments. By refining these ML-driven techniques, the project contributed to the broader scientific community’s understanding of plasma dynamics and fusion energy viability. Technical Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility The methods investigated demonstrated high technical effectiveness, as reflected in milestones assessing the predictive accuracy, performance, and optimization of fusion configurations. The development of an Operator Guidance Tool (OGT), for example, led to more precise control of plasma conditions by learning from experimental data and offering real-time adjustments. From an economic standpoint, DeFT provided: 1) the ability to reduce trial-and-error experimentation, which lowered operational costs; 2) improved data interpretation methods, which enabled more efficient resource allocation in large-scale fusion research projects; and 3) the automation of key diagnostic tasks, which reduced manual labor and human error, increasing overall efficiency. 13 The final assessments of predictive models and optimization strategies demonstrated that these approaches were scalable and could be implemented across multiple fusion energy research programs. Public Benefit and Societal Impact This project contributed directly to the broader goal of achieving sustainable and commercially viable fusion energy, which had profound implications for clean energy production and climate change mitigation. The integration of AI-driven solutions into fusion research: 1) sped up scientific discovery, accelerating progress towards achieving energy breakthroughs; 2) reduced the cost of experimentation, making fusion research more accessible; and 3) provided a framework for future AI applications in high-energy physics, benefiting adjacent fields like space exploration, material science, and renewable energy. Additionally, by fostering collaborations between AI researchers and plasma physicists, this project promoted interdisciplinary innovation that could lead to broader applications beyond fusion research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development for the National Institute of Standards And Technology (NIST) Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) Neutral Environmental Software Tool (NEST)

For this analysis, regionalized life cycle assessment (LCA) results for environmental impacts (using the Tool for Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts [TRACI] 2.1) and cumulative energy demand (using the Federal Life Cycle Analysis Commons Elementary Flow List [FEDEFL] Inventory Methods v1.0.0) were evaluated for the production and utilization of electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane as commodities within residential and commercial buildings. These results can used as a framework for future research into net zero, high-performance buildings, such as done here for the Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) database by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Engineering Laboratory. The geographical results were assigned to each United States (U.S.) Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code based on the ZIP code location and corresponding Balancing Authority Area, natural gas basin, and Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). Additionally, previously developed models were utilized to develop future life cycle profiles. Projections were based on data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022 through 2050 (AEO 2022). Electricity LCA models were updated based on AEO 2022 projected annual generation mixes, while the natural gas baseline model was updated based on projected shares of natural gas types (conventional, shale, tight, and coalbed methane). Projections of crude oil production rates and export rates were applied to the petroleum baseline model in five-year increments to investigate their effects on the life cycle profile of fuel oil and propane. While only 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) with climate carbon feedback (CC-FB) and Cumulative Energy Demand are shown in Section 4: Results, the complete results, including Acidification Potential, Eutrophication Potential, Freshwater Ecotoxicity Potential, GWP-100 without inclusion of CC-FB, Human Health Impacts Potentials (Cancer, Non-Cancer), Ozone Depletion Potential, Particulate Matter Formation Potential, and Photochemical Smog Formation Potential, are tabulated for each ZIP code in the Excel worksheets that accompany this analysis. For the Excel spreadsheet tools associated with this report, please go to https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f8890fac-be55-44ac-aaa9-e2888bfabe93

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1994

(abstract) Synthesis of Speaker Facial Movements to Match Selected Speech Sequences

We are developing a system for synthesizing image sequences the simulate the facial motion of a speaker. To perform this synthesis, we are pursuing two major areas of effort. We are developing the necessary computer graphics technology to synthesize a realistic image sequence of a person speaking selected speech sequences. Next, we are developing a model that expresses the relation between spoken phonemes and face/mouth shape. A subject is video taped speaking an arbitrary text that contains expression of the full list of desired database phonemes. The subject is video taped from the front speaking normally, recording both audio and video detail simultaneously. Using the audio track, we identify the specific video frames on the tape relating to each spoken phoneme. From this range we digitize the video frame which represents the extreme of mouth motion/shape. Thus, we construct a database of images of face/mouth shape related to spoken phonemes. A selected audio speech sequence is recorded which is the basis for synthesizing a matching video sequence; the speaker need not be the same as used for constructing the database. The audio sequence is analyzed to determine the spoken phoneme sequence and the relative timing of the enunciation of those phonemes. Synthesizing an image sequence corresponding to the spoken phoneme sequence is accomplished using a graphics technique known as morphing. Image sequence keyframes necessary for this processing are based on the spoken phoneme sequence and timing. We have been successful in synthesizing the facial motion of a native English speaker for a small set of arbitrary speech segments. Our future work will focus on advancement of the face shape/phoneme model and independent control of facial features.

graphics audio digitizing morphing enunciation pho↗
DOE OSTI2018

Numerical Modelling of Radionuclide Migration in the Context of a Near-Surface LILW Disposal Facility - 18618

The reference solution for the management of low and intermediate level short-lived waste (LILW) in France consists in their emplacement in concrete vaults built at the near-surface. The corresponding disposal facility under operation by the French waste management organization (Andra), is located in North-eastern France and planned to be closed in 2060. The safety case developed by Andra has to show the evidence that, amongst other aspects, the radionuclide transfer through the confinement barriers will occur in such a way that the human and environmental exposure will be as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) and in accordance with the dose constraints. For this purpose, modelling is used to integrate uncertainties about the characteristics of concrete components, waste and water table and their evolution in time and space. At last, modelling is finally used to investigate the radiological impact of specific scenarios in which the failure of safety barriers occurs. In the frame of its technical review of the safety assessment, the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) also performs such kind of numerical modelling of radionuclide fate from the waste to the hydrogeological outlets, in order to check whether the assessment performed by Andra takes into account sufficiently conservative assumptions. The present work aims to evaluate the role of components of the vaults on radionuclide transport during the post-closure period over a few thousand years. For this purpose, IRSN carries out numerical calculations with MELODIE software, which simulates water flow and transport of species, in order to simulate radionuclide migration from waste packages emplaced in a concrete vault to the surrounding groundwater. The developed transport model focuses on 3-H radionuclide and integrates Andra's main assumptions (release model from the waste packages, chemical and hydraulic properties of the vault components, shrinkage and cracks in concrete components). An adaptive mesh method, based on an a posteriori error estimator, was used to model the cracks and the consideration of a strong heterogeneity in the hydraulic and transport parameters values in the different components of the model. This method shows an improvement of results of about 40 times, whereas the mesh size was increased by only 2%. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1995

Task Analytic Models to Guide Analysis and Design: Use of the Operator Function Model to Represent Pilot-Autoflight System Mode Problems

Task-analytic models structure essential information about operator interaction with complex systems, in this case pilot interaction with the autoflight system. Such models serve two purposes: (1) they allow researchers and practitioners to understand pilots' actions; and (2) they provide a compact, computational representation needed to design 'intelligent' aids, e.g., displays, assistants, and training systems. This paper demonstrates the use of the operator function model to trace the process of mode engagements while a pilot is controlling an aircraft via the, autoflight system. The operator function model is a normative and nondeterministic model of how a well-trained, well-motivated operator manages multiple concurrent activities for effective real-time control. For each function, the model links the pilot's actions with the required information. Using the operator function model, this paper describes several mode engagement scenarios. These scenarios were observed and documented during a field study that focused on mode engagements and mode transitions during normal line operations. Data including time, ATC clearances, altitude, system states, and active modes and sub-modes, engagement of modes, were recorded during sixty-six flights. Using these data, seven prototypical mode engagement scenarios were extracted. One scenario details the decision of the crew to disengage a fully automatic mode in favor of a semi-automatic mode, and the consequences of this action. Another describes a mode error involving updating aircraft speed following the engagement of a speed submode. Other scenarios detail mode confusion at various phases of the flight. This analysis uses the operator function model to identify three aspects of mode engagement: (1) the progress of pilot-aircraft-autoflight system interaction; (2) control/display information required to perform mode management activities; and (3) the potential cause(s) of mode confusion. The goal of this paper is twofold: (1) to demonstrate the use of the operator functio model methodology to describe pilot-system interaction while engaging modes And monitoring the system, and (2) to initiate a discussion of how task-analytic models might inform design processes. While the operator function model is only one type of task-analytic representation, the hypothesis of this paper is that some type of task analytic structure is a prerequisite for the design of effective human-automation interaction.

Degani, Asaf↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Machine Learning to Estimate Surface-Level SO2 Concentrations from Satellite-Based Measurements

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a criteria air pollutant due to its contributions to aerosol formation, rainfall acidification, and harm to human health. The placement of air quality monitoring sites is typically biased towards urban areas, leaving large areas with very limited monitoring data. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been used to provide estimates of SO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) globally at spatial resolution of 10s of kms once per day. OMI SO2 VCDs have been previously used to estimate surface SO2 concentrations using chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The CTMs use estimated emissions and assimilated meteorological data, and simulate the chemical and physical processes that determine the vertical profile of SO2, which can be used to derive a ratio between the surface concentrations and VCDs. These models are complex, computationally expensive, and have large uncertainties in the simulated surface-to-VCD ratio due to biases in emissions and relatively coarse resolution. Machine learning techniques are comparatively easier to use, much less computationally expensive to use after training, and can produce more accurate estimations of surface concentrations than the CTM-based method. The interpretation of machine learning models often poses challenges, and in some cases, non-physical variables unrelated to SO2 are used as predictors. In this work, we create an artificial neural network (ANN) to relate OMI retrievals and archived GEOS-FP boundary layer heights to surface SO2 concentrations from the ChinaHighAirPollutants ChinaHighSO2 dataset (CHAP; Wei et al., 2023) on a seasonal average timescale from 2013-2018. Our model only utilizes five variables that are directly relevant to the satellite retrieval, lifetime, and spatial distribution of SO2. The model was trained on 16 seasons (four of each) with independent validation (one of each season) and testing datasets (one of each season) to avoid overfitting. Our ANN generates surface SO2 concentrations that are sensitive (slope = 0.51) and consistent (r = 0.74) with the CHAP data, but are underpredicted by an average of 1.2 ppbv with a mean absolute error of 2.2 ppbv. These results are better than recent studies utilizing the CTM method. To our knowledge, this is the best performing machine learning model that only uses physical variables to predict surface SO2. Our work demonstrates that a carefully constructed, simple ML model can accurately estimate surface-based SO2 concentrations from satellite VCD measurements, and this technique has future promise to expend to newer, higher resolution satellites and other air pollutants.

SO2, air quality, OMI, machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Building MCP-native hierarchical AI scientist ecosystems: a perspective on scaling multi-agent scientific discovery

Large language models (LLMs) are evolving from chatbots with limited tool-using capabilities to agentic AI systems that can perform deep research, assist in proposing hypotheses, help design experiments, automate data analysis, and draft scientific reports. However, there are currently two bottlenecks limiting LLMs' real-world impact on the broader scientific research community beyond academic demonstrations: lack of interoperability (repetitive manual tool-integration is required across scenarios) and the need for scalable coordination (unstructured communication and memory become brittle as the number of agents grows). In this Perspective, we argue that the next phase of agentic scientific discovery requires the development of an ecosystem of protocol-native agents and tools organized through hierarchies inspired by human society, beyond the current paradigm of a single monolithic “AI scientist”. We use Model Context Protocol (MCP) as a concrete example of an emerging interoperability layer for scientific tool and context exchange, and we propose three complementary pathways to increase the scaling capabilities of an MCP-native scientific ecosystem by addressing the composability issues: (1) MCP servers for high-value scientific tools maintained by domain experts, (2) automated transformation of existing code repositories into MCP services, and (3) autonomous invention and evolution of new agents and workflows. Finally, we provide a practical roadmap for scaling AI-driven scientific discovery by expanding tool supply and coordination in MCP-native scientific ecosystems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-G-BRA-06: Application of Systems and Control Theory-Based Hazard Analysis to Radiotherapy

Purpose: The process of delivering radiation occurs in a complex socio-technical system heavily reliant on human operators. Furthermore, both humans and software are notoriously challenging to account for in traditional hazard analysis models. High reliability industries such as aviation have approached this problem through using hazard analysis techniques grounded in systems and control theory. The purpose of this work is to apply the Systems Theoretic Accident Model Processes (STAMP) hazard model to radiotherapy. In particular, the System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) approach is used to perform a hazard analysis of a proposed on-line adaptive cranial radiosurgery procedure that omits the CT Simulation step and uses only CBCT for planning, localization, and treatment. Methods: The STPA procedure first requires the definition of high-level accidents and hazards leading to those accidents. From there, hierarchical control structures were created followed by the identification and description of control actions for each control structure. Utilizing these control structures, unsafe states of each control action were created. Scenarios contributing to unsafe control action states were then identified and translated into system requirements to constrain process behavior within safe boundaries. Results: Ten control structures were created for this new CBCT-only process which covered the areas of hospital and department management, treatment design and delivery, and vendor service. Twenty three control actions were identified that contributed to over 80 unsafe states of those control actions resulting in over 220 failure scenarios. Conclusion: The interaction of people, hardware, and software are highlighted through the STPA approach. STPA provides a hierarchical model for understanding the role of management decisions in impacting system safety so that a process design requirement can be traced back to the hazard and accident that it is intended to mitigate. Varian Medical Systems, Inc.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Changes in Oculomotor Behavior and PVT Reaction Time During One Night of Sleep Deprivation

INTRODUCTION: The Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) is a widely used objective measure of sustained attention, alertness, and fatigue. Previous studies consistently show that prolonged wakefulness and disrupted sleep patterns lead to increased lapses of attention and slower reaction times. These findings have critical implications for various professions, including healthcare, aviation, transportation safety, and spaceflight. In this study, we employed linear mixed models (LMM) to investigate hourly-measured 5-minute PVT reaction times during one night of total sleep deprivation. Our goal was to characterize the contribution of homeostatic sleep pressure (time awake) and circadian phase (salivary melatonin levels) on the dynamics of PVT reaction time. MATERIALS & METHODS: Data from twelve human participants were used in the analysis. Participants were healthy non-smokers, aged 18 and 40, with normal sleep habits defined as Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index scores < 5, and Morningness – Eveningness Questionnaire scores > 42 and < 58, respectively. Participants followed a constant-routine protocol and arrived at the NASA sleep laboratory approximately 1 to 2 hours after their habitual waking time. Tympanic temperature was measured every 30 min to provide a real-time estimate of circadian phase. Participants were required to stay awake throughout the laboratory experiment, which continued until their tympanic temperature had returned to baseline levels. This approach ensured that we could capture each participant's circadian trough and recovery, typically occurring between 24 and 26 hours after waking. The PVT and saliva melatonin were measured every hour, starting approximately from 3 hours after awakening. More information about the measurement protocol can be found in the publication by Stone et al. We used PVT reaction times between 100 and 10000 ms to calculate Reciprocal Reaction Times (RRTs). LMM models were employed to assess the contribution of time awake and saliva melatonin levels on changes in RRTs. Two models were created: the first model treated time awake as a fixed effect and the second model considered both the salivary melatonin level and time awake as fixed effects. Participants were included as a random effect in both models. We compared the models using an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The models were computed using the 'lmer' function from the 'lme4' package in R, and LMM p-values were determined using Satterthwaite's method. RESULTS: We found that time awake had a statistically significant effect on PVT RRTs during one night of sleep deprivation [χ2 = 2132.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. In addition, the model including both saliva melatonin levels and time awake was statistically significantly better than one that uses just time awake [χ2 = 17.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: As expected, these preliminary results suggest that the time awake and circadian phase each contribute to performance reductions as measured by the PVT. Future analyses will explore the contributions of other factors to the model.

sleep deprivation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable AI for Multivariate Time Series Pattern Exploration: Latent Space Visual Analytics With Temporal Fusion Transformer and Variational Autoencoders in Power Grid Event Diagnosis

Detecting and analyzing complex patterns in multivariate time-series data is crucial for decision-making in urban and environmental system operations. However, challenges arise from the high dimensionality, intricate complexity, and interconnected nature of complex patterns, which hinder the understanding of their underlying physical processes. Existing AI methods often face limitations in interpretability, computational efficiency, and scalability, reducing their applicability in real-world scenarios. This paper proposes a novel visual analytics framework that integrates two generative AI models, Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), to reduce complex patterns into lower-dimensional latent spaces and visualize them in 2D using dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA, t-SNE, and UMAP with DBSCAN. These visualizations, presented through coordinated and interactive views and tailored glyphs, enable intuitive exploration of complex multivariate temporal patterns, identifying patterns’ similarities and uncover their potential correlations for a better interpretability of the AI outputs. The framework is demonstrated through a case study on power grid signal data, where it identifies multi-label grid event signatures, including faults and anomalies with diverse root causes. Additionally, novel metrics and visualizations are introduced to validate the models and assess the performance, efficiency, and consistency of latent maps generated by VAE, which have been utilized in prior studies for latent space cartography and used as a benchmark in this study, and the emerging TFT architecture under various configurations. These analyses provide actionable insights for model parameter tuning and reliability improvements. Comparative results highlight that TFT achieves shorter run times and superior scalability to diverse time-series data shapes compared to VAE. This work advances fault diagnosis in multivariate time series, fostering explainable AI to support critical system operations.

Explainable AI↗
NASA NTRS1994

Gender- and age-related differences in heart rate dynamics: are women more complex than men?

OBJECTIVES. This study aimed to quantify the complex dynamics of beat-to-beat sinus rhythm heart rate fluctuations and to determine their differences as a function of gender and age. BACKGROUND. Recently, measures of heart rate variability and the nonlinear "complexity" of heart rate dynamics have been used as indicators of cardiovascular health. Because women have lower cardiovascular risk and greater longevity than men, we postulated that there are important gender-related differences in beat-to-beat heart rate dynamics. METHODS. We analyzed heart rate dynamics during 8-min segments of continuous electrocardiographic recording in healthy young (20 to 39 years old), middle-aged (40 to 64 years old) and elderly (65 to 90 years old) men (n = 40) and women (n = 27) while they performed spontaneous and metronomic (15 breaths/min) breathing. Relatively high (0.15 to 0.40 Hz) and low (0.01 to 0.15 Hz) frequency components of heart rate variability were computed using spectral analysis. The overall "complexity" of each heart rate time series was quantified by its approximate entropy, a measure of regularity derived from nonlinear dynamics ("chaos" theory). RESULTS. Mean heart rate did not differ between the age groups or genders. High frequency heart rate power and the high/low frequency power ratio decreased with age in both men and women (p < 0.05). The high/low frequency power ratio during spontaneous and metronomic breathing was greater in women than men (p < 0.05). Heart rate approximate entropy decreased with age and was higher in women than men (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS. High frequency heart rate spectral power (associated with parasympathetic activity) and the overall complexity of heart rate dynamics are higher in women than men. These complementary findings indicate the need to account for gender-as well as age-related differences in heart rate dynamics. Whether these gender differences are related to lower cardiovascular disease risk and greater longevity in women requires further study.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2012

Modeling of Melt Growth During Carbothermal Processing of Lunar Regolith

The carbothermal processing of lunar regolith has been proposed as a means to produce carbon monoxide and ultimately oxygen to support human exploration of the moon. In this process, gaseous methane is pyrolyzed as it flows over the hot surface of a molten zone of lunar regolith and is converted to carbon and hydrogen. Carbon gets deposited on the surface of the melt, and mixes and reacts with the metal oxides in it to produce carbon monoxide that bubbles out of the melt. Carbon monoxide is further processed in other reactors downstream to ultimately produce oxygen. The amount of oxygen produced crucially depends on the amount of regolith that is molten. In this paper we develop a model of the heat transfer in carbothermal processing. Regolith in a suitable container is heated by a heat flux at its surface such as by continuously shining a beam of solar energy or a laser on it. The regolith on the surface absorbs the energy and its temperature rises until it attains the melting point. The energy from the heat flux is then used for the latent heat necessary to change phase from solid to liquid, after which the temperature continues to rise. Thus a small melt pool appears under the heated zone shortly after the heat flux is turned on. As time progresses, the pool absorbs more heat and supplies the energy required to melt more of the regolith, and the size of the molten zone increases. Ultimately, a steady-state is achieved when the heat flux absorbed by the melt is balanced by radiative losses from the surface. In this paper, we model the melting and the growth of the melt zone with time in a bed of regolith when a portion of its surface is subjected to a constant heat flux. The heat flux is assumed to impinge on a circular area. Our model is based on an axisymmetric three-dimensional variation of the temperature field in the domain. Heat transfer occurs only by conduction, and effects of convective heat transport are assumed negligible. Radiative heat loss from the surface of the melt and the regolith to the surroundings is permitted. We perform numerical computations to determine the shape and the mass of the melt at steady state and its time evolution. We first neglect the volume change upon melting, and subsequently perform calculations including it. Predictions from our model are compared to test data to determine the effective thermal conductivities of the regolith and the melt that are compatible with the data

Balasubramaniam, R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hestia-SWIFL: hourly anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 and heat on the 2km WRF grid, version 1.1

The Hestia-SWIFL version 1.1 anthropogenic heat (AH) and fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions data product represent emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuel and cement production within the state of Arizona from 2019 to 2022. This product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address extreme heat, air quality, climate change and related urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions are generated using a bottom-up/engineering approach and are tied to results generated by the Vulcan Project version 4, an effort to quantify space/time-resolved FFCO2 & AH emissions for the entire United States landscape. A large number of data sources are combined to best estimate the emissions at fine scales such as air quality emissions data, traffic flow data, building information, sociodemographic information, and fuel statistics. The AH product provides emissions for two emissions sources (transportation and point source emissions) in units of Watts per hour per square meter (W/m2) per year (annual files) or per hour (hourly files). The FFCO2 product provides emissions from nine individual emission sectors as well as the total, and in units of tons of carbon (tC) per grid cell per year or per hour. The output made available here places the native spatial resolution of the Hestia FFCO2 & AH emissions data product (points, lines, and polygons) into a regularized 2km x 2km grid at hourly and annual temporal resolutions, and stored in netCDF files. The exact spatial extent is defined by the ASU Weather Research Forecast (WRF) simulation grid. All data are processed using R/Python pm high-performance computing system. 2-27-2026 updates: Bugs in airport hourly profile (both AH and FFCO2) and building spatial patterns (FFCO2 only) were fixed. Hourly emissions are reprocessed for all years to reflect those changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Models and Strategies for Optimal Demand Side Management in the Chemical Industries

Deregulation and the increase of renewable electricity generation from wind and solar photovoltaics have transformed the U.S. electricity market. Economic and environmental benefits notwithstanding, the presence of renewables has increased variability and uncertainty on the supply side of the grid. Managing demand, rather than generation – a strategy referred to as “demand response (DR)” – is an attractive approach for mitigating this imbalance. DR efforts aim to reduce electricity usage during peak demand times, lessening stress on the grid. Industrial users are particularly attractive entities for DR participation since they present large, localized loads that can provide significant relief on grid demand and –unlike other large loads, such as buildings – are minimally dependent on human needs and preferences. In this project, we accomplished three main objectives. (1) We developed data-driven low-order DR scheduling-relevant dynamic models of chemical processes. Concurrently, we studied the formulation and solution of the associated optimal DR production scheduling problems. (a) A prototype air separation unit (ASU) model was used to generate simulated operating data for initial modeling efforts, which enabled the later use of industrial data for data-driven modeling. (b) We utilized Hammerstein-Wiener (HW) and Finite Step Response (FSR) models to represent nonlinear plant dynamics. (c) The HW models were linearized using exact linearization so they could potentially be embedded in power system models, which are formulated as mixed integer linear programs (MILPs). (d) We solved DR optimization problems under uncertainty and found that even naïve predictions of electricity price and product demand led to significant cost savings benefits. (2) Our DR scheduling optimization problem formulations are amenable to real-time solution. (a) We utilized Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) to efficiently solve the optimization problem by decoupling subproblems linked by complicating constraints. (b) We have achieved computation times for the 3-day DR scheduling problem of an ASU as low as 1.88 minutes. (3) Our representations of the DR behavior of chemical process as grid-level batteries were embedded in power system models. (a) For a small-scale grid, we found that incorporating the dynamics of the chemical plant in the optimal power flow calculations resulted in better resource management leading to up to 15% and 46% cost reduction for the grid and chemical plant operations, respectively, during periods of power line congestion. We have published several works dedicated to modeling and solving DR optimization problems from the user side. These were published in top peer-reviewed journals and are summarized in this report. The most recent work (and papers in preparation) considers DR scheduling from the grid side. Future efforts will consider networked plants (e.g., air separation units operating on a common pipeline) for DR participation, which is expected to amplify the capabilities of industrial DR participants to perform load-shifting. Our consideration of uncertainty in DR has inspired future directions in this area as well: we plan to develop multistage methods to fully account for the effects of uncertainty in DR scheduling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗