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At least 793 records · Page 44

Flexible AI Models for Grid Resilience

The rapid growth in size and complexity of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models has led to increased energy demands, posing a threat to the reliability of the existing power grid. This project addresses the challenge of highly intermittent and energy-intensive inference workloads by (1) developing fidelity-adaptive neural networks capable of dynamic response to grid conditions and (2) integrating these networks with power flow simulations to assess their impact on power grid reliability. We will explore both top-down and bottom-up approaches to create hierarchies of submodels that provide a controlled trade-off between power draw and prediction accuracy. The top-down method utilizes NN pruning to reduce a flagship model into progressively smaller, energy-efficient variants. The bottom-up approach employs geometrically principled weight setting strategies to construct depth-efficient models from the ground up. A real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform will be developed to simulate a scaled AC power grid, integrating live AI workload power draw and enabling dynamic model switching in response to grid feedback. This work will provide a novel framework for evaluating the impact of flexible AI/ML workloads on grid performance and establish new methodologies for energy-aware computing in data centers. The outcomes will demonstrate that adaptive AI/ML can play a critical role in improving grid stability while advancing NREL's leadership in energy-efficient computing research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Predictions of time to HIV viral rebound following ART suspension that incorporate personal biomarkers

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Suspension of therapy is followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. However, there is significant heterogeneity in speed of rebound, with some rebounds occurring within days, weeks, or sometimes years. We present a stochastic mathematical model to gain insight into these post-treatment dynamics, specifically characterizing the dynamics of short term viral rebounds (≤ 60 days). Li et al. (2016) report that the size of the expressed HIV reservoir, i.e., cell-associated HIV RNA levels, and drug regimen correlate with the time between ART suspension and viral rebound to detectable levels. We incorporate this information and viral rebound times to parametrize our model. We then investigate insights offered by our model into the underlying dynamics of the latent reservoir. In particular, we refine previous estimates of viral recrudescence after ART interruption by accounting for heterogeneity in infection rebound dynamics, and determine a recrudescence rate of once every 2-4 days. Our parametrized model can be used to aid in design of clinical trials to study viral dynamics following analytic treatment interruption. We show how to derive informative personalized testing frequencies from our model and offer a proof-of-concept example. Our results represent first steps towards a model that can make predictions on a person living with HIV (PLWH)’s rebound time distribution based on biomarkers, and help identify PLWH with long viral rebound delays.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

On the variability of the Bering Sea Cold Pool and implications for the biophysical environment

The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2°C) is formed on the shelf each winter as a result of cooling and vertical mixing due to brine rejection during the predominately local sea ice growth. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP) is largely controlled by the winter extent of sea ice in the Bering Sea, which can vary considerably and recently has been much lower than average. The cold bottom water of the CP is important for food security because it delineates the boundary between arctic and subarctic demersal fish species. A northward retreat of the CP will likely be associated with migration of subarctic species toward the Chukchi Sea. We use the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to examine variability of the extent and distribution of the CP and its relation to change in the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea during the period 1980–2018. RASM results confirm the direct correlation between the extent of sea ice and the CP and show a smaller CP as a consequence of realistically simulated recent declines of the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea. In fact, the area of the CP was found to be only 31% of the long-term mean in July of 2018. In addition, we also find that a low ice year is followed by a later diatom bloom, while a heavy ice year is followed by an early diatom bloom. Finally, the RASM probabilistic intra-annual forecast capability is reviewed, based on 31-member ensembles for 2019–2021, for its potential use for prediction of the winter sea ice cover and the subsequent summer CP area in the Bering Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Collab Fracture Characterization: Preliminary Results from the Modeling and Flow Testing of Experiment 1

The EGS Collab project is developing ~10-20 m-scale field sites where fracture stimulation and flow models can be validated against controlled, small-scale, in-situ experiments. At the first experimental site, a hydraulic fracture will be created in metamorphic rock at the 4850 level in the former Homestake Mine. The experimental concept is for fracturing to be initiated at an injection well and continue until it intersects a production well approximately 10 meters away. Initial step-pressure flow testing of the fracture are to be performed to describe pressure-aperture-flow relationships. The flow field between the injector and producer boreholes will be characterized using a series of forced gradient dipole tracer tests. A number of fracture characterization models have been used to assist in the design of the tracer tests. The tracer test program will use conservative, sorbing, and particulate tracers, as well as sampling for radon gas to describe the fracture surface area (i.e., potential heat transfer area), flow pathway distribution, and volume. Tracer concentration at the production well (i.e. break through curves) will be measured using a series of inline sensors, liquid sampling devices, filtering of the effluent, and the measuring of gas concentrations in the effluent. Tracer monitoring data will be compared against results from a collection of numerical simulators developed at U.S. national laboratories and universities for the purpose of validating these flow and transport models. Ultimately these same models will be used to predict the heat transfer characteristics of the fracture and will be compared to a thermal characterization field test where cold water will be injected at the injection well and the temperature will be measured at the production well. This paper discusses the early tracer transport model predictions and parameters sensitivity that affect the tracer breakthrough curves at the production well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Collab Fracture Characterization: Preliminary Results from the Modeling and Flow Testing of Experiment 1

The EGS Collab project is developing ~10-20 m-scale field sites where fracture stimulation and flow models can be validated against controlled, small-scale, in-situ experiments. At the first experimental site, a hydraulic fracture will be created in metamorphic rock at the 4850 level in the former Homestake Mine. The experimental concept is for fracturing to be initiated at an injection well and continue until it intersects a production well approximately 10 meters away. Initial step-pressure flow testing of the fracture are to be performed to describe pressure-aperture-flow relationships. The flow field between the injector and producer boreholes will be characterized using a series of forced gradient dipole tracer tests. A number of fracture characterization models have been used to assist in the design of the tracer tests. The tracer test program will use conservative, sorbing, and particulate tracers, as well as sampling for radon gas to describe the fracture surface area (i.e., potential heat transfer area), flow pathway distribution, and volume. Tracer concentration at the production well (i.e. break through curves) will be measured using a series of inline sensors, liquid sampling devices, filtering of the effluent, and the measuring of gas concentrations in the effluent. Tracer monitoring data will be compared against results from a collection of numerical simulators developed at U.S. national laboratories and universities for the purpose of validating these flow and transport models. Ultimately these same models will be used to predict the heat transfer characteristics of the fracture and will be compared to a thermal characterization field test where cold water will be injected at the injection well and the temperature will be measured at the production well. This paper discusses the early tracer transport model predictions and parameters sensitivity that affect the tracer breakthrough curves at the production well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Collab Fracture Characterization: Preliminary Results from the Modeling and Flow Testing of Experiment 1

The EGS Collab project is developing ~10-20 m-scale field sites where fracture stimulation and flow models can be validated against controlled, small-scale, in-situ experiments. At the first experimental site, a hydraulic fracture will be created in metamorphic rock at the 4850 level in the former Homestake Mine. The experimental concept is for fracturing to be initiated at an injection well and continue until it intersects a production well approximately 10 meters away. Initial step-pressure flow testing of the fracture are to be performed to describe pressure-aperture-flow relationships. The flow field between the injector and producer boreholes will be characterized using a series of forced gradient dipole tracer tests. A number of fracture characterization models have been used to assist in the design of the tracer tests. The tracer test program will use conservative, sorbing, and particulate tracers, as well as sampling for radon gas to describe the fracture surface area (i.e., potential heat transfer area), flow pathway distribution, and volume. Tracer concentration at the production well (i.e. break through curves) will be measured using a series of inline sensors, liquid sampling devices, filtering of the effluent, and the measuring of gas concentrations in the effluent. Tracer monitoring data will be compared against results from a collection of numerical simulators developed at U.S. national laboratories and universities for the purpose of validating these flow and transport models. Ultimately these same models will be used to predict the heat transfer characteristics of the fracture and will be compared to a thermal characterization field test where cold water will be injected at the injection well and the temperature will be measured at the production well. This paper discusses the early tracer transport model predictions and parameters sensitivity that affect the tracer breakthrough curves at the production well.

Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS Collab, Sanford U↗

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanisms for Methane Transport and Hydrate Accumulation in Coarse-Grained Reservoirs

The distribution of natural methane hydrate within high saturation reservoirs and mechanisms that control the migration of methane are an active area of research. In this project, we studied methane migration mechanisms and associated hydrate accumulation rates in coarse-grained sands of the Terrebonne Basin, located in Walker Ridge Block 313 (WR313), northern Gulf of Mexico. Hydrate in this area is distributed heterogeneously within ~900 m of methane hydrate stability zone, in both thick (10-25 m) and thin (< 3 m) sand layers, and in units of subvertical hydrate-filled fractures. We investigated hydrate formation from diffusively and advectively supplied methane using one-, two-, and three-dimensional basin modeling with inputs from well log and seismic data. The hydrate accumulations at WR313 can mostly be explained by short, diffusive migration of methane as well as short-range advective transport of methane from clays into neighboring coarser-grained layers. This is likely enhanced by small-scale lithologic variations, including local microbial methanogenesis in interbedded clays. Furthermore, our work shows overpressure in clay sediments surrounding sand reservoirs may enhance short-range diffusive migration. Long-range migration of dissolved methane and gas mainly influence hydrate saturation right at the base of the hydrate stability zone, although the dissolved phase can be channeled upwards along sands by compaction-driven flow. Capillary effects can allow gas bubbles to migrate appreciable distances above the predicted base of gas hydrate stability, possibly reaching a few tens of meters into the hydrate stability zone. Recycling methane from hydrate buried beneath the base of the hydrate stability zone can concentrate hydrate at large saturations within a few tens of meters of the base of hydrate stability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling of Macroscopic/Microscopic Transport and Growth Phenomena in Zeolite Crystal Solutions Under Microgravity Conditions

Crystals grown from liquid solutions have important industrial applications. Zeolites, for instance, a class of crystalline aluminosilicate materials, form the backbone of the chemical process industry worldwide, as they are used as adsorbents and catalysts. Many of the phenomena associated with crystal growth processes are not well understood due to complex microscopic and macroscopic interactions. Microgravity could help elucidate these phenomena and allow the control of defect locations, concentration, as well as size of crystals. Microgravity in an orbiting spacecraft could help isolate the possible effects of natural convection (which affects defect formation) and minimize sedimentation. In addition, crystals will stay essentially suspended in the nutrient pool under a diffusion-limited growth condition. This is expected to promote larger crystals by allowing a longer residence time in a high-concentration nutrient field. Among other factors, the crystal size distribution depends on the nucleation rate and crystallization. These two are also related to the "gel" polymerization/depolymerization rate. Macroscopic bulk mass and flow transport and especially gravity, force the crystals down to the bottom of the reactor, thus forming a sedimentation layer. In this layer, the growth rate of the crystals slows down as crystals compete for a limited amount of nutrients. The macroscopic transport phenomena under certain conditions can, however, enhance the nutrient supply and therefore, accelerate crystal growth. Several zeolite experiments have been performed in space with mixed results. The results from our laboratory have indicated an enhancement in size of 30 to 70 percent compared to the best ground based controls, and a reduction of lattice defects in many of the space grown crystals. Such experiments are difficult to interpret, and cannot be easily used to derive empirical or other laws since many physical parameters are simultaneously involved in the process. At the same time, however, there is increased urgency to develop such an understanding in order to more accurately quantify the process. In order to better understand the results obtained from our prior space experiments, and design future experiments, a detailed fluid dynamic model simulating the crystal growth mechanism is required. This will not only add to the fundamental knowledge on the crystallization of zeolites, but also be useful in predicting the limits of size and growth of these important industrial materials. Our objective is to develop macro/microscopic theoretical and computational models to study the effect of transport phenomena in the growth of crystals grown in solutions. Our effort has concentrated so far in the development of separate macroscopic and microscopic models. The major highlights of our accomplishments are described.

Gatsonis, Nikos A.↗

Using Strong Magnetic Fields to Control Solutal Convection

An important component in biotechnology, particularly in the area of protein engineering and rational drug design is the knowledge of the precise three-dimensional molecular structure of proteins. The quality of structural information obtained from X-ray diffraction methods is directly dependent on the degree of perfection of the protein crystals. As a consequence, the growth of high quality macromolecular crystals for diffraction analyses has been the central focus for biochemists, biologists, and bioengineers. Macromolecular crystals are obtained from solutions that contain the crystallizing species in equilibrium with higher aggregates, ions, precipitants, other possible phases of the protein, foreign particles, the walls of the container, and a likely host of other impurities. By changing transport modes in general, i.e., reduction of convection and sedimentation, as is achieved in microgravity , we have been able to dramatically affect the movement and distribution of macromolecules in the fluid, and thus their transport, formation of crystal nuclei, and adsorption to the crystal surface. While a limited number of high quality crystals from space flights have been obtained, as the recent National Research Council (NRC) review of the NASA microgravity crystallization program pointed out, the scientific approach and research in crystallization of proteins has been mainly empirical yielding inconclusive results. We postulate that we can reduce convection in ground-based experiments and we can understand the different aspects of convection control through the use of strong magnetic fields and field gradients. We postulate that limited convection in a magnetic field will provide the environment for the growth of high quality crystals. The approach exploits the variation of fluid magnetic susceptibility with concentration for this purpose and the convective damping is realized by appropriately positioning the crystal growth cell so that the magnetic susceptibility force counteracts terrestrial gravity. The general objective is to test the hypothesis of convective control using a strong magnetic field and magnetic field gradient and to understand the nature of the various forces that come into play. Specifically we aim to delineate causative factors and to quantify them through experiments, analysis and numerical modeling. The paper will report on the experimental results using paramagnetic salts and solutions in magnetic fields and compare them to analytical predictions.

Ramachandran, N.↗

Towards an Enhanced Droplet Activation Scheme for Multi-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Initial droplet spectra produced upon activation impact the ensuing chain of microphysical processes andtherefore play a crucial role in cloud evolution. This work re-examines dependencies of newly formed clouddroplet size distribution (CDSD) characteristics on environmental and aerosol properties via parcel model simulationsthat serve as the basis for a multi-moment bulk microphysics droplet activation scheme suitable for acloud-resolving model (CRM). It is found that applying a fixed size threshold to define activated droplets versusemploying physical considerations can lead to erroneous activation and overly broad CDSDs for high aerosolconcentration and weak updraft conditions. Aerosol distributions characterized by larger median sizes and/orincreased solubility can result in greater activated droplet numbers, whereas impacts of these parameters onCDSD spectral width depend on both aerosol number concentration and updraft velocity. An expansion of theactivation scheme to include CDSD spectral width is proposed to aid efforts to extend high-order momentprediction to cloud droplet categories in CRMs as well as better represent variability in the activation process onthe cloud scale.simulations to investigate the regime dependence of the relative dispersion(d)1 of newly activated CDSDs, where d is the ratio of dropletradius standard deviation (σ) to the mean radius (r ). C16 demonstratedthat increasing Na resulted in increasing (decreasing) d values via reducedcondensational narrowing (spectral broadening) rates within theAL (UL) regime, with d values peaking in the TR regime. Their findingssuggest a similar regime dependence for d as R09 noted for Nc and helpexplain reportedly conflicting relationships between Na and CDSDspectral characteristics (cf. Hudson and Noble, 2014; Liu et al., 2014),although the applicability of these results within bulk microphysicalschemes was not addressed.Simulating aerosol-cloud interactions with CRMs employing bulkmicrophysics requires that the scheme minimally predict two CDSDparameters, namely mass and number concentrations, and represent thedroplet activation process. Various activation schemes aim to determineNc from aerosol and environmental properties and include analyticalexpressions (e.g., Abdul-Razzak et al., 1998; Morrison et al., 2005) aswell as lookup tables (LUTs) based on detailed parcel model calculations(e.g., Saleeby and Cotton, 2004, hereafter SC04; Segal and Khain,2006; Thompson and Eidhammer, 2014). Expressions to diagnose CDSDspectral width from Nc (Grabowski, 1998; Liu et al., 2006; Morrison andGrabowski, 2007) or cloud water content (Geoffroy et al., 2010) havealso been developed, although more robust methods to obtain CDSDspectral width upon activation are presently lacking. This latter point isrelevant for triple-moment (3 M) bulk microphysics that aim to predictdistribution spectral width alongside number and mass concentrations(e.g., Loftus et al., 2014; Milbrandt and Yau, 2005).The current work extends the findings of C16 to the current LUTbasedaerosol activation scheme used in the Regional AtmosphericModeling System (RAMS) (Cotton et al., 2003; SC04; Saleeby and vanden Heever, 2013, hereafter SvdH13) and additionally examinesaerosol size and solubility impacts on newly activated CDSD properties.Because early cloud development processes such as condensationalgrowth, evaporation, and droplet self-collection depend on and impactCDSD spectral width (Hudson and Yum, 1997; Seifert and Beheng 2001;Lu and Seinfeld, 2006; Igel and van den Heever, 2017), an expansion ofthe activation LUTs to include CDSD spectral width is proposed as apreliminary step for extending 3M prediction to CDSDs in CRMs forimproved simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions.2. MethodologyThe current RAMS two-moment microphysics module determinesthe fractional number of aerosol particles that activate to cloud dropletsfrom five-dimensional LUTs based on model predicted air temperature(T), w, Na, and the geometric median radius (rg) and soluble fraction (ε)of the aerosol size distribution (SvdH13). These LUTs are created offlineusing a one-dimensional Lagrangian adiabatic parcel model (Feingoldand Heymsfield, 1992; Heymsfield and Sabin, 1989; SC04) to simulateexplicit droplet activation and initial CDSD growth for a range of ambientatmospheric conditions [T, w] and binned lognormal aerosol sizedistributions given by= ⎡⎣ ⎢− ⎤⎦ ⎥N r Nr π σr rσ( )2 lnexp[ln( / )]2(ln )aggg22 (1)where r is the dry aerosol particle bin radius and σg is the geometricstandard deviation of the distribution. As the parcel model simulationsfocus on the activation process, other processes such as coalescence,sedimentation, and mixing are not considered. Details of the parcelmodel can be found in SC04 and SvdH13, and only a brief description isprovided here. At the onset of parcel model calculations, the initiallydry aerosol particles in all bins first deliquesce and reach theirequilibrium diameters in a sub-saturated environment based on theKöhler equation for solution droplets. The parcel is then lifted at a fixedupward velocity w, and particle growth by vapor diffusion, along withconcurrent changes in the ambient environment, are iteratively computedusing the Variable-coefficient Ordinary Differential Equation(VODE) solver (Brown et al., 1989). The time resolution of these calculationsis determined within the VODE solver, and the frequency atwhich the solver is called is controlled by a longer model time stepbased on fixed upward parcel displacement increments (Δz) at thespecified w (Δt=Δz/w). Model calculations proceed until the parcelreaches a height 50m beyond the level of maximum saturation ratio(Smax) or total parcel displacement exceeds 2 km. Upon model termination,Smax and the fractional number of aerosols (factv) resulting innewly formed cloud droplets, defined as particles having diameters of atleast 2 μm, are cataloged in the LUTs according to the specified T, w, Na,rg, and ε parameter values.A critical point regarding the creation of these LUTs is the use of afixed minimum diameter (Dmin) to define cloud droplets in the parcelmodel, which can produce erroneous CDSD characteristics, particularlywithin the UL regime. For aerosol distributions with large rg valuesunder low SS conditions, for example, deliquesced aerosols within thelarge tail of the distribution can exceed 2 μm in diameter yet remainunactivated as ‘haze’ particles (Levin and Cotton, 2009; McFigganset al., 2006). For this study, aerosol particles activate to cloud dropletsbased on the critical diameter Dcrit as a function of parcel supersaturationratio (Sr) as in R09:D = σ MS RTρ83 ln( ) critsol wr w (2)where σsol is the surface tension of a solution droplet, Mw and ρw are themolar mass and density of liquid water, respectively, and R is theuniversal gas constant. Additionally, at relatively large w values withinthe AL regime, Nc stabilizes shortly after reaching supersaturation.However, parcel ascent and condensational growth continue beyondthe level of Smax, potentially causing additional narrowing of the CDSD.In the current work, model calculations terminate upon reaching Smaxas changes in Nc are negligible with continued ascent (Peng et al., 2007;R09).Parcel model simulations are performed to examine the sensitivitiesof CDSD characteristics to w, Na, rg, and ε, with the ranges for theseparameters listed in Table 1. Aerosols are assumed to be a mix of solubleand insoluble material of equal density, specified by ε, where fullysoluble aerosols correspond to ammonium sulfate with hygroscopicityparameter κ=0.61 (Petters and Kreidenweis, 2007). FollowingSvdH13, aerosol geometric standard deviation is fixed at σg=1.8, andaerosol distributions (Eq. 1) are partitioned into 100 logarithmicallyspacedbins spanning a size range specific to each rg value. For all simulations,Δz=1 m, and initial values of relative humidity, air temperatureand pressure are set to RH=0.99, T=10 °C and p=900 hPa,respectively.

Loftus, Adrian M.↗

Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Observations indicate shrubs are expanding across the Arctic tundra, mainly on hillslopes and primarily in response to climate warming. However, the impact topography exerts on hydrology, nutrient dynamics, and plant growth can make untangling the mechanisms behind shrub expansion difficult. We examined the role topography plays in determining shrub expansion by applying a coupled transect version of a mechanistic ecosystem model (ecosys) in a tundra hillslope site in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Modeled biomass of the dominant plant functional types agreed well with field measurements (R 2 = 0.89) and accurately represented shrub expansion over the past 30 years inferred from satellite observations. In the well-drained crest position, canopy water potential and plant nitrogen (N) uptake was modeled to be low from plant and microbial water stress. Intermediate soil water content in the mid-slope position enhanced mineralization and plant N uptake, increasing shrub biomass. The deciduous shrub growth in the mid-slope position was further enhanced by symbiotic N 2 fixation primed by increased root carbon allocation. The gentle slope in the poorly drained lower-slope position resulted in saturated soil conditions that reduced soil O 2 concentrations, leading to lower root O 2 uptake and lower nutrient uptake and plant biomass. Additionally, a simulation that removed topographical interconnectivity between grid cells resulted in (1) a 28% underestimate of mean shrub biomass and (2) over or underestimated shrub productivity at the various hillslope positions. Our results indicate that land models need to account for hillslope-scale coupled surface and subsurface hydrology to accurately predict current plant distributions and future trajectories in Arctic ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Use of Ferrofluids to Model Materials Processing (MSFC Center Director's Discretionary Fund)

Many crystals grown in space have structural flaws believed to result from convective motions during the growth phase. The character of these instabilities is not well understood but is associated with thermal and solutal density variations near the solidification interface in the presence of residual gravity and g-jitter. To study these instabilities in a separate, controlled space experiment, a concentration gradient would first have to be artificially established in a timely manner as an initial condition. This is generally difficult to accomplish in a microgravity environment because the momentum of the fluid injected into a test cell tends to swirl around and mix in the absence of a restoring force. The use of magnetic fields to control the motion and position of liquids has received recent, growing interest. The possibility of using the force exerted by a non-uniform magnetic field on a ferrofluid to not only achieve fluid manipulation but also to actively control fluid motion makes it an attractive candidate for space applications. This paper describes a technique for quickly establishing a linear or exponential fluid concentration gradient using a magnetic field in place of gravity to stabilize the deployment. Also discussed is a photometric technique for measuring the concentration profile using light attenuation. Although any range of concentrations can be realized, photometric constraints impose some limitations on measurements. Results of the ground-based experiments indicate that the species distribution is within 3 percent of the predicted value.

Leslie, F.↗

Parasitic current collection by PASP Plus solar arrays

Solar cells at potentials positive with respect to a surrounding plasma collect electrons. Current is collected by the exposed high voltage surfaces: the interconnects and the sides of the solar cells. This current is a drain on the array power that can be significant for high-power arrays. In addition, this current influences the current balance that determines the floating potential of the spacecraft. One of the objectives of the Air Force (PL/GPS) PASP Plus (Photovoltaic Array Space Power Plus Diagnostics) experiment is an improved understanding fo parasitic current collection. We have done computer modeling of parasitic current collection and have examined current collection flight data from the first year of operations. Prior to the flight we did computer modeling to improve our understanding of the physical processes that control parasitic current collection. At high potentials, the current rapidly rises due to a phenomenon called snapover. Under snapover conditions, the equilibrium potential distribution across the dielectric surface is such that part of the area is at potentials greater than the first crossover of the secondary yield curve. Therefore, each incident electron generates more than one secondary electron. The net effect is that the high potential area and the collecting area increase. We did two-dimensional calculations for the various geometries to be flown. The calculations span the space of anticipated plasma conditions, applied potential, and material parameters. We used the calculations and early flight data to develop an analytic formula for the dependence of the current on the primary problem variables. The analytic formula was incorporated into the EPSAT computer code. EPSAT allows us to easily extend the results to other conditions. PASP Plus is the principal experiment integrated onto the Advanced Photovoltaic and Electronics Experiments (APEX) satellite bus. The experiment is testing twelve different solar array designs. Parasitic current collection is being measured for eight of the designs under various operational and environment conditions. We examined the current collected as a function of the various parameters for the six non-concentrator designs. The results are similar to those obtained in previous experiments and predicted by the calculations. We are using the flight data to validate the analytic formula developed. The formula can be used to quantify the parasitic current collected. Anticipating the parasitic current value allows the spacecraft designer to include this interaction when developing the design.

Davis, Victoria Ann↗

Combining Speed Information Across Space

We used speed discrimination tasks to measure the ability of observers to combine speed information from multiple stimuli distributed across space. We compared speed discrimination thresholds in a classical discrimination paradigm to those in an uncertainty/search paradigm. Thresholds were measured using a temporal two-interval forced-choice design. In the discrimination paradigm, the n gratings in each interval all moved at the same speed and observers were asked to choose the interval with the faster gratings. Discrimination thresholds for this paradigm decreased as the number of gratings increased. This decrease was not due to increasing the effective stimulus area as a control experiment that increased the area of a single grating did not show a similar improvement in thresholds. Adding independent speed noise to each of the n gratings caused thresholds to decrease at a rate similar to the original no-noise case, consistent with observers combining an independent sample of speed from each grating in both the added- and no-noise cases. In the search paradigm, observers were asked to choose the interval in which one of the n gratings moved faster. Thresholds in this case increased with the number of gratings, behavior traditionally attributed to an input bottleneck. However, results from the discrimination paradigm showed that the increase was not due to observers' inability to process these gratings. We have also shown that the opposite trends of the data in the two paradigms can be predicted by a decision theory model that combines independent samples of speed information across space. This demonstrates that models typically used in classical detection and discrimination paradigms are also applicable to search paradigms. As our model does not distinguish between samples in space and time, it predicts that discrimination performance should be the same regardless of whether the gratings are presented in two spatial intervals or two temporal intervals. Our last experiment largely confirmed this prediction.

Verghese, Preeti↗

Combining Speed Information Across Space

We used speed discrimination tasks to measure the ability of observers to combine speed information from multiple stimuli distributed across space. We compared speed discrimination thresholds in a classical discrimination paradigm to those in an uncertainty/search paradigm. Thresholds were measured using a temporal two-interval forced-choice design. In the discrimination paradigm, the n gratings in each interval all moved at the same speed and observers were asked to choose the interval with the faster gratings. Discrimination thresholds for this paradigm decreased as the number of gratings increased. This decrease was not due to increasing the effective stimulus area as a control experiment that increased the area of a single grating did not show a similar improvement in thresholds. Adding independent speed noise to each of the n gratings caused thresholds to decrease at a rate similar to the original no-noise case, consistent with observers combining an independent sample of speed from each grating in both the added- and no-noise cases. In the search paradigm, observers were asked to choose the interval in which one of the n gratings moved faster. Thresholds in this case increased with the number of gratings, behavior traditionally attributed to an input bottleneck. However, results from the discrimination paradigm showed that the increase was not due to observers' inability to process these gratings. We have also shown that the opposite trends of the data in the two paradigms can be predicted by a decision theory model that combines independent samples of speed information across space. This demonstrates that models typically used in classical detection and discrimination paradigms are also applicable to search paradigms. As our model does not distinguish between samples in space and time, it predicts that discrimination performance should be the same regardless of whether the gratings are presented in two spatial intervals or two temporal intervals. Our last experiment largely confirmed this prediction.

Verghese, Preeti↗

Analysis and Prediction of Weather Impacted Ground Stop Operations

When the air traffic demand is expected to exceed the available airport's capacity for a short period of time, Ground Stop (GS) operations are implemented by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Traffic Flow Management (TFM). The GS requires departing aircraft meeting specific criteria to remain on the ground to achieve reduced demands at the constrained destination airport until the end of the GS. This paper provides a high-level overview of the statistical distributions as well as causal factors for the GSs at the major airports in the United States. The GS's character, the weather impact on GSs, GS variations with delays, and the interaction between GSs and Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) are investigated. The machine learning methods are used to generate classification models that map the historical airport weather forecast, schedule traffic, and other airport conditions to implemented GS/GDP operations and the models are evaluated using the cross-validations. This modeling approach produced promising results as it yielded an 85% overall classification accuracy to distinguish the implemented GS days from the normal days without GS and GDP operations and a 71% accuracy to differentiate the GS and GDP implemented days from the GDP only days.

Analysis↗

Random Forest Regressor-Based Approach for Detecting Fault Location and Duration in Power Systems

Power system failures or outages due to short-circuits or “faults” can result in long service interruptions leading to significant socio-economic consequences. It is critical for electrical utilities to quickly ascertain fault characteristics, including location, type, and duration, to reduce the service time of an outage. Existing fault detection mechanisms (relays and digital fault recorders) are slow to communicate the fault characteristics upstream to the substations and control centers for action to be taken quickly. Fortunately, due to availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units (PMUs), more event-driven solutions can be captured in real time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for determining fault characteristics using samples of fault trajectories. A random forest regressor (RFR)-based model is used to detect real-time fault location and its duration simultaneously. This model is based on combining multiple uncorrelated trees with state-of-the-art boosting and aggregating techniques in order to obtain robust generalizations and greater accuracy without overfitting or underfitting. Four cases were studied to evaluate the performance of RFR: 1. Detecting fault location (case 1), 2. Predicting fault duration (case 2), 3. Handling missing data (case 3), and 4. Identifying fault location and length in a real-time streaming environment (case 4). A comparative analysis was conducted between the RFR algorithm and state-of-the-art models, including deep neural network, Hoeffding tree, neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, naive Bayesian, and K-nearest neighborhood. Experiments revealed that RFR consistently outperformed the other models in detection accuracy, prediction error, and processing time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗