Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “ECOSYSTEM”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cloud-Based Solutions for Monitoring Coastal Ecosystems and Prioritization of Restoration Efforts Across Belize

In recent years the availability of automated change detection algorithms in Google Earth Engine has permitted cloud-based processing of large time series of satellite imagery. Models such as the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC), CCDC-Spectral Mixture Analysis (CCDC-SMA), and Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery (LandTrendr) allow users to exploit decades of Earth Observations (EO) , leveraging the Landsat archive and data from other sensors to detect disturbance in forest ecosystems. Despite the wide adoption of these methods, robust documentation and growing community of users, little research has explored their use in mangrove environments. Mangroves are dynamic environments subject to changes due to not only the natural migration of mudflats but also coastal erosion, urban expansion, aquaculture practices, etc. This work aims to identify best practices for the application of these models to identify and monitor changes in the Belizean mangroves, which experienced an estimated 5.4% decrease in extent between 1980 and 2017 (Cherrington et al. 2020). Partnering directly with the Belizean Forest Department, our team will develop a replicable, efficient methodology to annually update the country’s mangrove extent employing EO-based change detection. This collaboration supports Belize’s marine conservation and climate resilience efforts, such as its Blue Bond agreement with the Nature Conservancy, building on national processes to monitor these critical ecosystems.

Mangroves↗
DOE OSTI2017

Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) Field Campaign Report

Cumulus convection is an important component in the atmospheric radiation budget and hydrologic cycle over the southern Great Plains and over many regions of the world, particularly during the summertime growing season when intense turbulence induced by surface radiation couples the land surface to clouds. Current convective cloud parameterizations contain uncertainties resulting in part from insufficient coincident data that couples cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties to inhomogeneities in land surface, boundary layer, and aerosol properties. The Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign was designed to provide a detailed set of measurements that are needed to obtain a more complete understanding of the lifecycle of shallow clouds by coupling cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties to land surface properties, ecosystems, and aerosols. Some of the land-atmosphere-cloud interactions that can be studied using HI-SCALE data are shown in Figure 1. HI-SCALE consisted of two 4-week intensive operation periods (IOPs), one in the spring (April 24-May 21) and the other in the late summer (August 28-September 24) of 2016, to take advantage of different stages of the plant lifecycle, the distribution of “greenness” for various types of vegetation in the vicinity of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, and aerosol properties that vary during the growing season. As expected, satellite measurements indicated that the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was much “greener” in the vicinity of the SGP site during the spring IOP than the late summer IOP as a result of winter wheat maturing in the spring and being harvested in the early summer. As shown in Figure 2, temperatures were cooler than average and soil moisture was high during the spring IOP, while temperatures were warmer than average and soil moisture was low during the late summer IOP. These factors likely influence the occurrence and lifecycle of shallow clouds. Most of the instrumentation was deployed on the ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) Gulfstream 1 (G-1) aircraft, including those that measure atmospheric turbulence, cloud water content and drop size distributions, aerosol precursor gases, aerosol chemical composition and size distributions, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The specific instrumentation is listed in Table 1. The team of scientists participating in the G-1 flights were from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), and the University of Washington. Routine ARM aerosol measurements made at the surface were supplemented with aerosol microphysical properties measurements, with support from the DOE Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) User Facility and the Atmospheric System Radiation (ASR) program. This included deploying a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) to measure aerosol size distribution, a proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) to measure volatile organic compounds, an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) to measure bulk aerosol composition, and the single-particle laser ablation time-of-flight mass spectrometer (SPLAT II) to measure single-particle aerosol composition at the SGP site Guest Instrumentation Facility. In this way, characterization of aerosol properties at the surface and on the G-1 were consistent. In addition, the HI-SCALE: Nanoparticle Composition and Precursors add-on campaign was conducted during the second IOP in which several state-of-the-science chemical ionization mass spectrometers were deployed to measure nanoparticle composition and precursors. Scientists participating in the surface measurements were from PNNL, BNL, University California–Irvine, Augsberg College, Colorado University, Aerodyne Inc., and Aerosol Dynamics Inc.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator Version 1

The Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) is a vegetation model for use in Earth system models (ESMs). The model includes a size- and age-structured representation of tree dynamics, competition between functionally diverse plant functional types, and the biophysics underpinning plant growth, competition, mortality, as well as the carbon, water, and energy exchange with the atmosphere. The FATES model is designed as a modular vegetation model that can be integrated within a host land model for inclusion in ESMs. The model is designed for use in global change studies to understand and project the responses and feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems and the Earth system under changing climate and other forcings.

Xu, Chonggang↗
DOE OSTI2018

Digital Engineering Ecosystem for Innovative Nuclear Technologies

The construction, aerospace, and automotive industries have achieved considerable cost and schedule savings by utilizing virtual design. This program will develop a connected ecosystem of tools to support the design of innovative nuclear technologies. This ecosystem will develop a formal representation of information (data ontology) and systems software to facilitate digital engineering.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Novel Approach for Considering Ecosystem Services at Industrial Sites near Agricultural Lands

Natural resource damages from industrial operations have been studied for years at legacy sites, including the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford site in southeastern Washington State. Encompassing nearly 1,500 km2 (600 mi2), this site represents one of the world’s largest cleanup projects with an estimated cost exceeding $320 billion and perhaps double that. The site includes an extensive buffer zone beyond the relatively limited portion (15%) used for nuclear materials production and associated waste storage and disposal. Before Hanford existed, most of the local lands were used for agriculture, and that use has continued nearby. Historical data relevant to the natural resource damage assessment process include location-specific irrigation practices, rates of groundwater withdrawal, and sustainable yields. The potential for considering the benefit of an ecosystem service is also being explored. Undeveloped areas of the site have long provided natural habitat for a wide variety of species, including pollinators. Thus, adjacent agricultural lands have benefited from pollinator services for years. This study describes a novel approach for considering the benefit of increased crop value due to this pollinator service. The approach combines spatial data for local pollinator-dependent crops with pollinator abundance data. A production function is then applied to estimate the agro-economic value resulting from crop pollination. A preliminary analysis indicates that the increased value for apple crops alone near Hanford could be on the order of $80 million a year. The benefits from this ecosystem service could offer practical context as a complement to the assessment of natural resource damages.

MacDonell, Margaret M.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Decision trees for incorporating the likelihood of excessive hydrologic alteration into hydropower-ecosystem tradeoffs

Detrimental ecological impacts have often been observed or anticipated when changes in streamflow indicators exceed percent deviation thresholds believed to be ecologically critical. Yet, short pre- and post-impact flow records often make it difficult to determine whether changes exceeding tolerable thresholds are due to dam operations or natural variability. Through a hypothetical reservoir operations example, we incorporate the uncertainty of dam-induced streamflow changes into a Bayesian decision tree framework that evaluates tradeoffs between expected regrets associated with hydropower and ecology. The likelihood of over-protection (type I) and under-protection (type II) errors associated with hypothesis tests are used to compute expected hydropower and ecosystem regrets associated with dam operation decisions. We examine changes to high (annual Q5) and low flows (annual Q95) in typical years using a modified and extended nonparametric ranked-sum test that accounts for percent deviation thresholds. A multiple comparison test is then used to determine the likelihood of at least one threshold violation. An example shows that our decision-theoretic approach can lead to different dam operation recommendations than do other common methods, and highlights limitations that arise when the type I error rate is selected a priori. While we illustrate a hydropower-ecosystem tradeoff, our approach can also be applied to other multi-stakeholder reservoir and river management conflicts.

Bayesian decision-making, environmental flows, flo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient Distance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

Sensitivity analysis in terrestrial ecosystem modeling is important for understanding controlling processes, guiding model development, and targeting new observations to reduce parameter and prediction uncertainty. Complex and computationally expensive terrestrial ecosystem models (TEM) limit the number of ensemble simulations, requiring sophisticated and efficient methods to analyze sensitivities of multiple model responses to different types of parameter uncertainties. In this study, we propose a distance-based global sensitivity analysis (DGSA) method. DGSA first classifies model response samples into a small set of discrete classes and then calculates the distance between parameter frequency distributions in different classes to measure the parameter sensitivity. The principle is that, if the parameter distribution is the same in each class, then the model response is insensitive to the parameter, while a large difference in the distributions indicates the parameter is influential to the response. Built on this idea, DGSA can be applied to analyze sensitivity of a single and a group of responses to different kinds of parameter uncertainties including continuous, discrete and even stochastic. Besides the main-effect sensitivity from a single parameter, DGSA can also quantify the sensitivity from parameter interactions. Additionally, DGSA is computationally efficient which can use a small number of model evaluations to obtain an accurate and statistically significant result. We applied DGSA to two TEMs, one having eight parameters and three kinds of model responses, and the other having 47 parameters and a long-period response. We demonstrated that DGSA can be used for sensitivity problems with multiple responses and high-dimensional parameters efficiently.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards a Software Development Framework for Interconnected Science Ecosystems

The innovative science of the future must be multi-domain and interconnected to usher in the next generation of “self-driving” laboratories enabling consequential discoveries and transformative inventions. Such a disparate and interconnected ecosystem of scientific instruments will need to evolve using a system-of-systems (SoS) approach. The key to enabling application integration with such an SoS will be the use of Software Development Kits (SDKs). Currently, SDKs facilitate scientific research breakthroughs via algorithmic automation, databases and storage, optimization and structure, pervasive environmental monitoring, among others. However, existing SDKs lack instrument-interoperability and reusability capabilities, do not effectively work in an open federated architectural environment, and are largely isolated within silos of the respective scientific disciplines. Inspired by the scalable SoS framework, this work proposes the development of INTERSECT-SDK to provide a coherent environment for multi-domain scientific applications to benefit from the open federated architecture in an interconnected ecosystem of instruments. This approach will decompose functionality into loosely coupled software services for interoperability among several solutions that do not scale beyond a single domain and/or application. Furthermore, the proposed environment will allow operational and managerial inter-dependence while providing opportunities for the researchers to reuse software components from other domains and build universal solution libraries. We demonstrate this research for microscopy use-case, where we show how INTERSECT-SDK is developing the tools necessary to enable advanced scanning methods and accelerate scientific discovery.

Malviya, Addi Thakur↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and code for: Combining eddy covariance towers, field measurements, and the MEMS 2 ecosystem model improves confidence in the climate impacts of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

BECCS demands extensive land use change that may create positive or negative radiative forcing impacts upstream of the BECCS facility through changes to in situ greenhouse gas fluxes and land surface albedo. When quantifying these upstream climate impacts, even at a single site, different methods can give different estimates. Here we show how three common methods for estimating the net ecosystem carbon balance of bioenergy crops established on former grassland or former cropland can differ in their central estimates and uncertainty.

BECCS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydraulic redistribution supplies a major water subsidy and improves water status of understory species in a longleaf pine ecosystem

Hydraulic redistribution (HR) is a common phenomenon in water-limited ecosystems; however, it remains unclear how the volume of water transported via HR compares to other components of the hydrologic budget and how HR influences water availability for understory plant communities. In this study, we investigate the absolute and relative magnitude of HR on a forest water budget and identify potential impacts of this water subsidy to understory plant communities. We scaled tree-level estimates of transpiration and HR of three common tree species naturally occurring in a longleaf pine woodland with plot-level measurements of basal area to determine their magnitude at the stand scale. We trenched plots containing understory vegetation but devoid of mature trees and their connected roots to exclude HR subsidies to understory plant species. We analysed soil water isotopes and assessed leaf water potential (Ψ L ) in trenched and control plots to determine if HR results in mixing of water among soil strata and improves understory plant moisture status. Water inputs from HR were equivalent to >30% of total rainfall for the site during the observation period and ~40% of total tree water uptake, depending on species. A stable isotope mixing model confirmed that soil water within HR-exposed plots was more similar to groundwater, whereas soil water within trenched plots was more similar to precipitation. Exclusion of HR via trenching decreased soil moisture and pre-dawn Ψ L for all understory species. These three lines of evidence suggest that HR from overstory trees redistributes a sizable portion of water from deeper to shallower soil profiles and that this water subsidy enhances understory plant water status.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in microbial community and network structure precede shrub degradation in a desert ecosystem

Large-scale restoration is intended to promote ecological recovery. Improvements in plant and microbial conditions, however, may slow or even reverse in late succession. To better understand long-term restoration outcomes and underlying drivers of successional pathways, we tracked plant, bacterial and fungal, and soil conditions across a 40-year shrub plantation that was intended to stabilize desertified land in northern China. Here, we found that planted Haloxylon ammodendron shrubs developed and then subsequently became degraded after 30–40 years. Bacterial abundance and α-diversity were much higher than those of fungi, but no significant differences in composition and structure were found in different plantation ages. In contrast, the dominant taxa of fungal communities shifted from symbiotroph and saprotroph species towards pathotroph species with increased soil nutrients in the plantation chronosequence after two decades. The changes in fungal dominant species led to a transition in microbial network structure and function, with an increase in negative linkages among taxa that began in the middle stages of succession. Changes in fungal community structure had direct and indirect negative effects on shrub leaf physiology, root activity, and biomass. Our results highlight the preceding role of a breakdown in soil microbial community composition and network structure on the degradation of shrub performance in long-term desert succession. Our study emphasizes the importance of understanding soil-microbial-plant linkages on restoration outcomes, and mechanisms that can slow or reverse the recovery of ecosystems.

Bacterial and fungal community composition↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multi-objective optimization model for cropland design considering profit, biodiversity, and ecosystem services

More sustainable agricultural methods are needed to alleviate the decreases in biodiversity and ecosystem services that have occurred because of industrial agriculture. One such method is the inclusion of alternative crops into croplands that can support biodiversity, reduce erosion and chemical runoff, and sequester carbon in the soil. However, the question of where such crops should be planted to balance competing economic and environmental objectives remains open. To this end, we develop a mixed-integer quadratically constrained program to optimize the layout of a cropland considering economic, biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality objectives. We include spatially varying fertilization as a decision variable in addition to crop establishment location. We further include the effect of core area and edges between different crops on biodiversity. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we apply it to an example field, showing how the optimal cropland design changes as a decision-maker prioritizes different objectives and as edges have different impacts on biodiversity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Assessing the impacts of water abstractions on river ecosystem services: an eco-hydraulic modelling approach

The provision of important river ecosystem services (ES) is dependent on the flow regime. This requires methods to assess the impacts on ES caused by interventions on rivers that affect flow regime, such as water abstractions. This study proposes a method to i) quantify the provision of a set of river ES, ii) simulate the effects of water abstraction alternatives that differ in location and abstracted flow, and iii) assess the impact of water abstraction alternatives on the selected ES. The method is based on river modelling science, and integrates spatially distributed hydrological, hydraulic and habitat models at different spatial and temporal scales. The method is applied to the hydropeaked upper Noce River (Northern Italy), which is regulated by hydropower operations. We selected locally relevant river ES: habitat suitability for the adult marble trout, white-water rafting suitability, hydroelectricity production from run-of-river (RoR) plants. Our results quantify the seasonality of river ES response variables and their intrinsic non-linearity, which explains why the same abstracted flow can produce different effects on trout habitat and rafting suitability depending on the morphology of the abstracted reach. An economic valuation of the examined river ES suggests that incomes from RoR hydropower plants are of comparable magnitude to touristic revenue losses related to the decrease in rafting suitability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mechanical formation of micro- and nano-plastic materials for environmental studies in agricultural ecosystems

Release of microplastics (MPs) and nanoplastics (NPs) into agricultural fields is of great concern due to their reported ecotoxicity to organisms that provide beneficial service to the soil such as earthworms, and the potential ability of MPs and NPs to enter the food chain. Most fundamental studies of the fate and transport of plastic particulates in terrestrial environments employ idealized MP materials as models, such as monodisperse polystyrene spheres. In contrast, plastics that reside in agricultural soils consist of polydisperse fragments resulting from degraded films employed in agriculture. There is a need for more representative materials in fundamental studies of the fate, transport, and ecotoxicity of MPs and NPs in soil ecosystems. The aim of this study was therefore to develop a procedure to produce MPs and NPs from agricultural plastics (a mulch film prepared biodegradable polymer polybutyrate adipate-co-terephthalate (PBAT) and low-density PE [LDPE]), and to characterize the resultant materials. Soaking of PBAT films under cryogenic conditions promoted embrittlement, similar to what occurs through environmental weathering. LDPE and cryogenically-treated PBAT underwent mechanical milling followed by sieve fractionation into MP fractions of 840 μm, 250 μm, 106 μm, and 45 μm. The 106 μm fraction was subjected to wet grinding to produce NPs of average particle size 366.0 nm and 389.4 nm for PBAT and LDPE, respectively. A two-parameter Weibull model described the MPs' particle size distributions, while NPs possessed bimodal distributions. Size reduction did not produce any changes in the chemical properties of the plastics, except for slight depolymerization and an increase of crystallinity resulting from cryogenic treatment. This study implies that MPs form from cutting and high-impact mechanical degradation as would occur during the tillage into soil, and that NPs form from the MP fragments in regions of relative weakness that possess lower molecular weight polymers and crystallinity.

33 nanoplastics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Feasibility of Formulating Ecosystem Biogeochemical Models From Established Physical Rules

Abstract To improve the predictive capability of ecosystem biogeochemical models (EBMs), we discuss the feasibility of formulating biogeochemical processes using physical rules that have underpinned the many successes in computational physics and chemistry. We argue that the currently popular empirically based approaches, such as multiplicative empirical response functions and the law of the minimum, will not lead to EBM formulations that can be continuously refined to incorporate improved mechanistic understanding and empirical observations of biogeochemical processes. Instead, we propose that EBM parameterizations, as a lossy data compression problem, can be better formulated using established physical rules widely used in computational physics and chemistry, and different biogeochemical processes can be more robustly integrated within a reactive‐transport framework. Through several examples, we demonstrate how mathematical representations derived from physical rules can improve understanding of relevant biogeochemical processes and enable more effective communication between modelers, observationalists, and experimentalists regarding essential questions, such as what measurements are needed to meaningfully inform models and how can models generate new process‐level hypotheses to test in empirical studies. Finally, while empirical models with more parameters are often less robust, physical rules‐based models can be more robust and show lower predictive equifinality, stemming from their enhanced consistency in representations of processes, interactions and spatial scaling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Canopy cover and microtopography control precipitation-enhanced thaw of ecosystem-protected permafrost

Abstract Northern high-latitudes are projected to get warmer and wetter, which will affect rates of permafrost thaw and mechanisms by which thaw occurs. To better understand the impact of rain, as well as other factors such as snow depth, canopy cover, and microtopography, we instrumented a degrading permafrost plateau in south-central Alaska with high-resolution soil temperature sensors. The site contains ecosystem-protected permafrost, which persists in unfavorable climates due to favorable ecologic conditions. Our study (2020–2022) captured three of the snowiest years and three of the four wettest years since the site was first studied in 2015. Average thaw rates along an across-site transect increased nine-fold from 6 ± 5 cm yr −1 (2015–2020) to 56 ± 12 cm yr −1 (2020–2022). This thaw was not uniform. Hummock locations, residing on topographic high points with relatively dense canopy, experienced only 8 ± 9 cm yr −1 of thaw, on average. Hollows, topographic low points with low canopy cover, and transition locations, which had canopy cover and elevation between hummocks and hollows, thawed 44 ± 6 cm yr −1 and 39 ± 13 cm yr −1 , respectively. Mechanisms of thaw differed between these locations. Hollows had high warm-season soil moisture, which increased thermal conductivity, and deep cold-season snow coverage, which insulated soil. Transition locations thawed primarily due to thermal energy transported through subsurface taliks during individual rain events. Most increases in depth to permafrost occurred below the ∼45 cm thickness seasonally frozen layer, and therefore, expanded existing site taliks. Results highlight the importance of canopy cover and microtopography in controlling soil thermal inputs, the ability of subsurface runoff from individual rain events to trigger warming and thaw, and the acceleration of thaw caused by consecutive wet and snowy years. As northern high-latitudes become warmer and wetter, and weather events become more extreme, the importance of these controls on soil warming and thaw is likely to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long-term nitrogen fertilization decreases bacterial diversity and favors the growth of Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria in agro-ecosystems across the globe

Long-term Elevated nitrogen (N) input from anthropogenic sources may cause soil acidification and decrease crop yield, yet the response of the belowground microbial community to long-term N input and the input of N combined with phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) is still poorly understood. Here, we explored the effect of long-term N and NPK fertilization on soil bacterial diversity and community composition using meta-analysis of a global dataset. Nitrogen fertilization decreased soil pH, and increased soil organic carbon (C) and available N contents. Bacterial taxonomic diversity was decreased by N fertilization alone, but was increased by NPK fertilization. The effect of N fertilization on bacterial diversity depends on soil texture and water management, but independent of crop type or N application rate. Both soil pH and organic C content were positively related to changes in bacterial diversity under N fertilization, while soil organic C was the dominant factor determining changes in bacterial diversity under NPK fertilization. Microbial biomass C decreased with decreasing bacterial diversity under long-term N fertilization. Nitrogen fertilization increased the relative abundance of copiotrophic bacteria (i.e. Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria), but reduced the abundance of oligotrophic taxa (i.e. Acidobacteria), consistent with the general life history strategy theory for bacteria. The relative abundance of Proteobacteria was also increased by NPK fertilization. The positive correlation between N application rate and the relative abundance of Actinobacteria indicates that increased N availability favored the growth of Actinobacteria. This first global analysis of long-term N and NPK fertilization effect on bacterial diversity and community composition suggests that N input decreases bacterial diversity but favors the growth of copiotrophic bacteria, providing a reference for nutrient management strategies for maintaining belowground microbial diversity in agro-ecosystems worldwide.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2–7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss >20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km 2 ) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗