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NASA NTRS1993

Comment on 'Geomagnetic activity associated with earth passage of interplanetary shock disturbances and coronal mass ejections' by J. T. Gosling, D. J. McComas, J. L. Philips, and S. J. Bame

It is contended that statistical data do not support the claim of Gosling et al. (1991) to the effect that the initial speed of a solar wind driver gas close to the sun appears to be the most crucial factor in determining if an earthward direct event will be effective in exciting a large geomagnetic disturbance. It is argued that the time intervals are much too large to observe the storm-time B sub Z dependence. Gosling et al. reply that this comment is based on a serious misunderstanding of their conclusions.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Prediction of geomagnetic activity

A simple analytic model for the directly driven, adiabatic solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling is derived on the basis of frontside reconnection and force balance in the tail. Magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling occurs through Alfven waves which are driven by changes of electric fields in the magnetosphere. The model provides an algorithm which calculates the directly driven part of the auroral electrojets from an observed solar wind variation. For two days in May 1979 the cross correlation between the prediction and observation of AE is greater than 0.9. This suggests that most of the geomagnetic activity during these two days was directly driven by the solar wind.

Goertz, C. K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Periodic variation in the geomagnetic activity - A study based on the Ap index

The monthly and daily samples of the Ap index for the interval from 1932 through 1982 were studied using the power spectrum technique. Results obtained for Bartel's period (about 27 days), the semiannual period, the dual-peak solar cycle distribution of geomagnetic storms, and certain other medium-scale periodicities are examined in detail. In addition, results on the cumulative occurrence number of storms per decade as a function of the Ap and Dst indices for the storm are presented.

De Gonzalez, Alicia L. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Observations of the UARS Particle Environment Monitor and computation of ionization rates in the middle and upper atmosphere during a geomagnetic storm

In this paper we present observations made by the Particle Environment Monitor (PEM) instruments during the geomagnetic storm of 8-9 November, 1991. Ionization and energy deposition rates as functions of altitude in the middle and upper atmosphere by incident electrons and positive ions in the storm interval are computed. The suite of PEM instruments provides a systematic measurement of energetic particles and their associated X-rays over an energy range not fully covered by previous satellite missions.

Sharber, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Atmospheric energy input and ionization by energetic electrons during the geomagnetic storm of 8-9 November 1991

The Atmospheric X-ray Imaging Spectrometer (AXIS) of the Particle Environment Monitor investigation aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite monitors energy input to the upper atmosphere due to energetic electrons. Analysis of the AXIS data from the major geomagnetic storm of 8-9 November 1991 is presented. During the November storm, electrons above a few keV flowing into a substantially expanded auroral zone provided the bulk of the ionizing power to the upper atmosphere. At the peak of the disturbance the total AXIS-observed power reached 40 GW. On 9 November the whole day average atmospheric ionization rate in the auroral zone at 80 km altitude exceeded the rate due to solar UV and solar X-rays by a factor of over 10 to 100.

Chenette, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Coronal mass ejections - The link between solar and geomagnetic activity

The phenomenon of coronal mass ejections (CME) is examined with reference to recent work in this field. In particular, attention is given to CMEs close to the sun, CMEs in interplanetary space, solar cycle variations of CMEs, and magnetic field topology and the problem of magnetic flux balance in interplanetary space. It is demonstrated that transient ejections of material from the sun are the cause of almost all large nonrecurrent geomagnetic substorms, as originally suggested by Chapman and his colleagues.

Gosling, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Excitation and decay of flows in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system due to magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetospause and in the geomagnetic tail

The excitation and decay of flows in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system which are caused by magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause and in the geomagnetic tail are applied. Following an outline of the theoretical framework recently introduced by Cowley and Lockwood, their ideas are applied to the discussion of the time dependent flows generated by both impulsive and quasicontinuous reconnection.

Cowley, Stanley W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Response of the thermosphere and ionosphere to geomagnetic storms

Four numerical simulations have been performed, at equinox, using a coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model, to illustrate the response of the upper atmosphere to geomagnetic storms. The storms are characterized by an increase in magnetospheric energy input at high latitude for a 12-hour period; each storm commences at a different universal time (UT). The initial response at high latitude is that Joule heating raises the temperature of the upper thermosphere and ion drag drives high-velocity neutral winds. The heat source drives a global wind surge, from both polar regions, which propagates to low latitudes and into the opposite hemisphere. The surge has the character of a large-scale gravity wave with a phase speed of about 600 m/s. Behind the surge a global circulation of magnitude 100 m/s is established at middle latitudes, indicating that the wave and the onset of global circulation are manifestations of the same phenomena. A dominant feature of the response is the penetration of the surge into the opposite hemisphere where it drives poleward winds for a few hours. The global wind surge has a preference for the night sector and for the longitude of the magnetic pole and therefore depends on the UT start time of the storm. A second phase of the meridional circulation develops after the wave interaction but is also restricted, in this case by the buildup of zonal winds via the Coriolis interaction. Conservation of angular momentum may limit the buildup of zonal wind in extreme cases. The divergent wind field drives upwelling and composition change on both height and pressure surfaces. The composition bulge responds to both the background and the storm-induced horizontal winds; it does not simply rotate with Earth. During the storm the disturbance wind modulates the location of the bulge; during the recovery the background winds induce a diurnal variation in its position. Equatorward winds in sunlight produce positive ionospheric changes during the main driving phase of the storm. Negative ionospheric phases are caused by increases of molecular nitrogen in regions of sunlight, the strength of which depends on longitude and the local time of the sector during the storm input. Regions of positive phase in the ionosphere persist in the recovery period due to decreases in mean molecular mass in regions of previous downwelling. Ion density changes, expressed as a ratio of disturbed to quiet values, exhibit a diurnal variation that is driven by the location of the composition bulge; this variation explains the ac component of the local time variation of the observed negative storm phase.

Fuller-Rowell, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observations of Earthward and tailward propagating flux rope plasmoids: Expanding the plasmoid model of geomagnetic substorms

A survey of Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP 8) magnetometer data for plasmoid signatures during magnetospheric intervals from 1981 through 1983 found 16 plasmoids and 37 traveling compression regions as well as two earthward propagating flux ropes and 19 south-north bipolar lobe signatures. The properties of these relatively near-Earth plasmoids, traveling compression regions, and earthward propagating flux ropes and a qualitative model for their formation are presented. The plasmoids have estimated sizes, durations, magnetic field signatures, downtail velocities, and substorm associations very similar to those of the plasmoids identified in International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 3 deep-tail observations. The occurrence frequency of these near-Earth plasma sheet plasmoids is significantly smaller than that of plasmoids found in the mid- and deep tail with ISEE 3. The earthward propagating flux ropes are characterized by a south-north bipolar turning in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) B(sub z) component, are localized near the noon-midnight meridional plane, and are strongly correlated with interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) north and small isolated high latitude geomagnetic substorms. These events are also apparently very rare and/or spatially localized. We propose that these structures are 'proto-plasmoids,' i.e., plasmoids for which near-Earth magnetic reconnection stopped before all the closed plasma sheet field lines were reconnected. The proto-plasmoids are then 'trapped' inside closed magnetic field lines and propagate earthward owing to the effect of the distant X-line's earthward plasma flow. We suggest that the two different 'types' of plasmoids are due to the different energy states of the magnetosphere during periods of southward and northward interplanetary magnetic field.

Moldwin, Mark B.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A correlative comparison of the ring current and auroral electrojects usig geomagnetic indices

From a study of the 21 largest geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 21, a strong correlation is established between the ring current index Dst and the time-weighted accumulation of the 1-hour auroral electrojets indices, AE and AL. The time-weighted accumulation corresponds to convolution of the auroral electrojet indices with an exponential weighting function with an e-folding time of 9.4 hours. The weighted indices AE(sub w) and AL(sub w) have correltation coefficients against Dst ranging between 0.8 and 0.95 for 20 of the 21 storms. Correlation over the entire solar cycle 21 database is also strong but not as strong as for an individual storm. A set of simple Dst prediction functions provide a first approximation of the inferred dependence, but the specific functional relationship of Dst (AL(sub w)) or Dst (AL(sub w)) varies from one storm to the next in a systematic way. This variation reveals a missing parametric dependence in the transfer function. However, our results indicate that auroral electroject indices are potentially useful for predicting storm time enhancements of ring current intensity with a few hours lead time.

Cade, W. B., III↗
NASA NTRS1995

On the uniqueness of linear moving-average filters for the solar wind-auroral geomagnetic activity coupling

The relation between the solar wind input to the magetosphere, VB(sub South), and the auroral geomagnetic index AL is modeled with two linear moving-average filtering methods: linear prediction filters and a driven harmonic oscillator in the form of an electric circuit. Although the response of the three-parameter oscillator is simpler than the filter's, the methods yield similar linear timescales and values of the prediction-observation correlation and the prediction Chi(exp 2). Further the filter responses obtained by the two methods are similar in their long-term features. In these aspects the circuit model is equivalent to linear prediction filtering. This poses the question of uniqueness and proper interpretation of detailed features of the filters such as response peaks. Finally, the variation of timescales and filter responses with the AL activity level is discussed.

Vassiliadis, D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Statistical Technique for Intermediate and Long-Range Estimation of 13-Month Smoothed Solar Flux and Geomagnetic Index

This report documents the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) 13-month smoothed solar flux (F(sub 10.7)) and geomagnetic index (A(sub p)) intermediate (months) and long-range (years) statistical estimation technique, referred to as the MSFC Lagrangian Linear Regression Technique (MLLRT). Estimates of future solar activity are needed as updated input to upper atmosphere density models used for satellite and spacecraft orbital lifetime predictions. An assessment of the MLLRT computer program's products is provided for 5-year periods from the date estimates were made. This was accomplished for a number of past solar cycles.

Niehuss, K. O.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Geomagnetic Storm Effects in the Low- to Middle-Latitude Upper Thermosphere

In this paper, we use data from the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite and a theoretical simulation made by using the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/ionosphere general circulation model (NCAR-TIGCM) to study storm-induced changes in the structure of the upper thermosphere in the low- to middle-latitude (20 deg-40 deg N) region of the winter hemisphere. Our principal results are as follows: (1) The winds associated with the diurnal tide weaken during geomagnetic storms, causing primarily zonally oriented changes in the evening sector, few changes in the middle of the afternoon, a combination of zonal and meridional changes in the late morning region, and mainly meridional changes early in the morning; (2) Decreases in the magnitudes of the horizontal winds associated with the diurnal tide lead to a net downward tendency in the vertical winds blowing through a constant pressure surface; (3) Because of these changes in the vertical wind, there is an increase in compressional heating (or a decrease in cooling through expansion), and thus temperatures in the low- to middle-latitudes of the winter hemisphere increase; (4) Densities of all neutral species increase on a constant height surface, but the pattern of changes in the O/N2 ratio is not well ordered on these surfaces; (5) The pattern of changes in the O/N2 ratio is better ordered on constant pressure surfaces. The increases in this ratio on constant pressure surfaces in the low- to middle-latitude, winter hemisphere are caused by a more downward tendency in the vertical winds that blow through the constant pressure surfaces. Nitrogen-poor air is then advected downward through the pressure surface, increasing the O/N2 ratio; (6) The daytime geographical distribution of the modeled increases in the O/N2 ratio on a constant pressure surface in the low- to middle-latitudes of the winter hemisphere correspond very closely with those of increases in the modeled electron densities at the F2 peak.

Burns, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Large Enhancements in the O/N2 Ratio in the Evening Sector of the Winter Hemisphere During Geomagnetic Storms

In this paper, we have looked for enhancements of the O/N2 ratio in data measured by the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite in the middle latitudes of the winter hemisphere, based on a prediction that was made by the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/tonosphere general circulation model (NCAR-TIGCM) that such increases occur. The NCAR-TIGCM predicts that these enhancements should be seen throughout the low latitude region and in many middle latitude locations, but that the enhancements in O/N2 are particularly strong in the middle-latitude, evening-to-midnight sector of the winter hemisphere. When this prediction was used to look for these effects in DE 2 NACS (neutral atmosphere composition spectrometer) data, large enhancements in the O/N2 ratio (approx. 50 to 90%) were seen. These enhancements were observed during the main phase of a storm that occurred on November 24, 1982, and were seen in the same region of the winter hemisphere predicted by the NCAR-TIGCM. They are partially the result of the depletion of N2 and, as electron loss is dependent on dissociative recombination at F(sub 2) altitudes, they have implications for electron densities in this area. Parcel trajectories, which have been followed through the NCAR-TIGCM history file for this event, show that large O/N2 enhancements occur in this limited region in the winter hemisphere for two reasons. First, these parcels of air are decelerated by the antisunward edge of the ion convection pattern; individual parcels converge and subsidence occurs. Thus molecular-nitrogen-poor air is brought from higher to lower heights. Because neutral parcels that are found a little poleward of the equatorial edge of the eveningside convection pattern are swept inward toward the center of the auroral oval, the enhancements occur only in a very limited range of latitudes. Second, nitrogen-poor air is transported from regions close to the magnetic pole in the winter hemisphere. During geomagnetic storms, enhanced meridional winds are driven by the increased pressure-gradient force that is associated with intensified Joule heating in the auroral oval. These pressure-driven winds decrease rapidly on the dayside beyond the auroral oval where the parcels originate, limiting the region into which the parcels can be transported. Thus these two processes drive values of O/N2 in a limited region of the winter hemisphere, and reinforce only in the evening sector, causing large changes in this region.

Burns, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Main Geomagnetic Field Models from Oersted and Magsat Data Via a Rigorous General Inverse Theory with Error Bounds

The purpose of the grant was to study how prior information about the geomagnetic field can be used to interpret surface and satellite magnetic measurements, to generate quantitative descriptions of prior information that might be so used, and to use this prior information to obtain from satellite data a model of the core field with statistically justifiable error estimates. The need for prior information in geophysical inversion has long been recognized. Data sets are finite, and faithful descriptions of aspects of the earth almost always require infinite-dimensional model spaces. By themselves, the data can confine the correct earth model only to an infinite-dimensional subset of the model space. Earth properties other than direct functions of the observed data cannot be estimated from those data without prior information about the earth. Prior information is based on what the observer already knows before the data become available. Such information can be "hard" or "soft". Hard information is a belief that the real earth must lie in some known region of model space. For example, the total ohmic dissipation in the core is probably less that the total observed geothermal heat flow out of the earth's surface. (In principle, ohmic heat in the core can be recaptured to help drive the dynamo, but this effect is probably small.) "Soft" information is a probability distribution on the model space, a distribution that the observer accepts as a quantitative description of her/his beliefs about the earth. The probability distribution can be a subjective prior in the sense of Bayes or the objective result of a statistical study of previous data or relevant theories.

Backus, George E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

On Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism

A statistical description of Earth's broad scale, core-source magnetic field has been developed and tested. The description features an expected, or mean, spatial magnetic power spectrum that is neither "flat" nor "while" at any depth, but is akin to spectra advanced by Stevenson and McLeod. This multipole spectrum describes the magnetic energy range; it is not steep enough for Gubbins' magnetic dissipation range. Natural variations of core multipole powers about their mean values are to be expected over geologic time and are described via trial probability distribution functions that neither require nor prohibit magnetic isotropy. The description is thus applicable to core-source dipole and low degree non-dipole fields despite axial dipole anisotropy. The description is combined with main field models of modem satellite and surface geomagnetic measurements to make testable predictions of: (1) the radius of Earth's core, (2) mean paleomagnetic field intensity, and (3) the mean rates and durations of both dipole power excursions and durable axial dipole reversals. The predicted core radius is 0.7% above the 3480 km seismologic value. The predicted root mean square paleointensity (35.6 mu T) and mean Virtual Axial Dipole Moment (about 6.2 lx 1022 Am(exp 2)) are within the range of various mean paleointensity estimates. The predicted mean rate of dipole power excursions, as defined by an absolute dipole moment <20% of the 1980 value, is 9.04/Myr and 14% less than obtained by analysis of a 4 Myr paleointensity record. The predicted mean rate of durable axial dipole reversals (2.26/Myr) is 2.3% more than established by the polarity time-scale for the past 84 Myr. The predicted mean duration of axial dipole reversals (5533 yr) is indistinguishable from an observational value. The accuracy of these predictions demonstrates the power and utility of the description, which is thought to merit further development and testing. It is suggested that strong stable stratification of Earth's uppermost outer core leads to a geologically long interval of no dipole reversals and a very nearly axisymmetric field outside the core. Statistical descriptions of other planetary magnetic fields are outlined.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Future of Geomagnetic Storm Predictions: Implications from Recent Solar and Interplanetary Observations

Within the last 7-8 years, there has been a substantial growth in out knowledge of the solar and interplanetary causes of geomagnetic storms at Earth. This review article will not attempt to cover all of the work done during this period. This can be found elsewhere. Our emphasis here will be on recent efforts that expose important, presently unanswered questions that must be addressed and solved before true predictability of storms can be possible. Hopefully, this article will encourage some readers to join this effort and perhaps make major contributions to the field.

Tsurutani, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Influence of Correlated Crustal Signals in Modelling the Main Geomagnetic Field

Algorithms used in geomagnetic main-field modelling have for the most part treated the noise in the field measurements as if it were white. A major component of the noise consists of the field due to magnetization in the crust and it has been realized for some time that such signals are highly correlated at satellite altitude. Hence approximation by white noise, while of undoubted utility, is of unknown validity. In this paper we study two plausible statistical models for the crustal magnetization, in which the magnetization is a realization of a stationary, isotropic, random process. At a typical satellite altitude the associated fields exhibit significant correlation over ranges as great as 15 deg. or more, which introduces off-diagonal elements into the covariance matrix, elements that have usually been neglected in modelling procedures. Dealing with a full covariance matrix for a large data set would present a formidable computational challenge, but fortunately most of the entries in the covariance matrix are so small that they can be replaced by zeros. The resultant matrix comprises only about 3 per cent non-zero entries and thus we can take advantage of efficient sparse matrix techniques to solve the numerical system. We construct several main-field models based on vertical-component data from a selected 5 deg. by 5 deg. data set derived from the Magsat mission. Models with and without off-diagonal terms are compared.

Rygaard-Hjalsted, C.↗