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At least 793 records · Page 44

The effect of helium on cavity swelling in dual-ion irradiated Fe and Fe-10Cr ferritic alloys

We report Ferritic-martensitic (FM) steels for in-vessel components in proposed fusion reactors are expected to suffer from high levels of displacement damage and helium (He) generation by neutron transmutation. However, a thorough understanding of the He synergistic effects on the cavity swelling in FM steels is still not well established. To gain fundamental insights into the He effect on cavity swelling, high purity Fe and Fe-10 wt.% Cr ferritic model alloys were irradiated with 8 MeV Ni ions and co-implanted He ions at 400 to 550 °C up to 30 displacements per atom (dpa) with He implantation rates of 0.1, 10 and 50 appm He/dpa. The current study focuses on the 50 appm He/dpa, 500 °C behavior vs. 0.1 and 10 appm He/dpa. Irradiation-induced defects, including cavities, dislocation loops, and dislocation networks were characterized using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). In the grain interior, a bimodal cavity size distribution was observed in the 10 and 50 appm He/dpa samples, but not for 0.1 appm He/dpa. Cavity swelling was maximized at intermediate He implantation rates of ~10 appm He/dpa for both ion-irradiated Fe and Fe-10Cr alloys. The cavity swelling behavior as a function of He implantation rate appears to be controlled by the He/dpa-dependent variation of cavity sink strengths. Treating small bubbles as biased sinks for interstitial absorption can significantly increase the ratio of biased to unbiased sink strengths (Q) and results in maximized cavity swelling for a Q ratio close to one.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Numerical Simulation of Reservoir Response to Depressurization

The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) discovered gas hydrate at high saturation in sand reservoirs at several sites in the deepwater Bay of Bengal. To assess the potential response of those deposits to scientific depressurization experiments, comprehensive geologic models were constructed to enable numerical simulation for two sites. Both sites (NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16) feature thick sequences of thinly-interbedded reservoir and non-reservoir facies at sub-seafloor depths less than 300m and sub-sea depths of 2400m or more. These settings pose significant challenges to current modeling capabilities. First, the thinly-interbedded reservoir architecture complicates the determination of basic reservoir parameters from both log and core data due to measurement resolution issues. Secondly, the fine scale variation in sediment properties imparts great contrasts in key parameters over very short distances, creating high gradients at multiple scales and varying orientations that necessitate careful design of high-definition simulation grids. Thirdly, the deposits include internal sources of water, as well as a range of complex boundary conditions, including variable permeability within the overlying mud-rich “seals,” that complicate reservoir depressurization. Lastly, because of the unique combination of great water depth and relatively shallow sub-seafloor depth: models designed to maximize the dissociation rate impose large pressure drawdowns on relatively low-strength sediments. This condition renders the proper evaluation and integration of the geomechanical response to hydrate dissociation critical. In this report, we review the history of gas hydrate reservoir simulation, discuss methods for creating geologic input models, and summarize the key findings and implications of the collaborative NGHP-02 numerical simulation effort. Together, the studies confirm the viability of the modeled accumulations for scientific testing and identify key challenges related to the selection of specific test sites and the design of test wells.

Boswell, Ray↗

Meta-equilibrium transition microstructure for maximum austenite stability and minimum hardness in a Ti-stabilized supermartensitic stainless steel

We report that the maximization of stable reverted austenite at room temperature through inter-critical tempering is a widely used method to reduce hardness in supermartensitic stainless steels. Nevertheless, partial martensitic transformation might occur due to insufficient compositional stabilization. In this work, we conducted a time-resolved triple-step inter-critical tempering, specially designed to obtain maximum austenite stability and minimum hardness through the progressive suppression of the martensitic transformation. The mechanism behind the progressive increase in stable reverted austenite was the generation of a meta-equilibrium state, which imposed a limit in both high temperature austenite reversion and room temperature austenite stabilization. Such limit corresponded to the high temperature volume fraction of austenite, obtained right before cooling from the first cycle. Additionally, this effect was associated to the Ni-rich fresh martensite laths acting as local Ni compositional pockets, providing site-specific austenite reversion; and to the suppression of any additional nucleation at the Ni-poor matrix as the T0 temperature for austenite reversion was strongly increased. The softening mechanism was mainly controlled by the carbon arrest effect by the precipitation of Ti (C, N), which was completed after the first tempering cycle. Nevertheless, maximizing reverted austenite and suppressing fresh martensite at room temperature did not result in additional hardness reductions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Parametric study and speciation analysis of rare earth precipitation using oxalic acid in a chloride solution system

Oxalic acid precipitation is a common step in the purification of rare earth elements (REE) from a concentrated pregnant leach solution (PLS). However, the presence of contaminants such as Al, Fe, and Ca in given amounts decreases the REE precipitation efficiency and product purity while also increasing the amount of oxalic acid needed to maximize recovery. As such, a statistically designed test program was performed to identify the optimal conditions necessary for a relatively low REE content PLS containing elevated concentrations of contaminant ions. The performance objective was maximization of REE precipitation efficiency while minimizing the oxalic acid dosage. A central composite design was utilized to quantify performance impacts and identify the ultimate set of parameter values for oxalic acid dosage, Fe(III) contamination concentration, solution pH, and reaction temperature. The resultant model suggested that oxalic acid dosage and reaction pH are the most significant factors for the REE precipitation efficiency, followed by the interaction of oxalic dosage and Fe concentration. Test results indicate that increasing the oxalic acid concentration from 0 g/L to 80 g/L improved the REE precipitation efficiency from approximately 4.2% to 95.0%. Furthermore, raising the solution pH from 0.5 to 2.5 considerably enhanced the precipitation efficiency from 0.0% to 98.9%. A solution temperature elevation decreased REE recovery, which indicated an exothermic reaction between REEs and oxalate anions. Finally, a high level of Fe contamination adversely impacted REE precipitation efficiency. Here, to further the understanding of the REE-oxalate system, a fundamental solution chemistry study was performed using the equilibrium constants of the reactions. The study resulted in the development of oxalate speciation diagrams and provided an analysis of the REE precipitation characteristics at various oxalate anion concentrations and Fe(III) contamination levels using MINTEQ software. The dominant Fe(III) species in the solution system were found to be Fe-(C 2 O 4 ) 3 3- , Fe-(C 2 O 4 ) 2- , and Fe-(C 2 O 4 ) + , which consume the majority of the oxalate anions. The simulated model was found to be in agreement with the experimental findings and helped to explain the adverse impact of increased iron concentrations on REE precipitation efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Crowded electrolytes containing redoxmers in different states of charge: Solution structure, properties, and fundamental limits on energy density

Nonaqueous redox flow batteries use liquid electrolytes containing redox-active organic molecules (redoxmers) as their energy storage medium. To maximize energy density, the redoxmer concentration needs to be maximized while maintaining low viscosity and high ionic conductivity. During charge, a redoxmer molecule pairs with an ion in the electrolyte while another ion migrates across the membrane to maintain electric neutrality. In a crowded electrolyte, this reconstitution changes physical and chemical properties of the solution. To explore these behaviors, a phenothiazine redoxmer fully miscible with acetonitrile was used, and electrochemical charge was mimicked by chemical oxidation. The solutions were examined using small-angle X-ray scattering, nuclear magnetic resonance, and conductometry and modeled using classical molecular dynamics. Overall, our study indicates that physical and structural properties of redoxmer solutions in both states of charge make it exceedingly difficult to increase the redoxmer concentrations over 2 M at any temperature without compromising dynamic properties of such solutions. The cause for this limitation is proximity to a gel-like regime in which fluidity, diffusivity, and ionic conductivity exponentially decrease with increasing concentration. This tendency is compounded by non-Arrhenius behavior of the electrolyte: a small increase in the concentration outruns gains in fluidity and conductivity at a higher temperature. Thus the properties of crowded electrolytes generally make it impossible to operate when gel-like behavior sets in. Pushing the redoxmer concentration to 2.5-3 M might be possible for small redoxmer molecules, but it would require the use of ionic liquid electrolytes at 340-360 K. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Structural dynamics of first-order phase transition in giant magnetocaloric La(Fe,Si) 13 : The free energy landscape

Maximizing the performance of magnetic refrigerators and thermomagnetic energy harvesters is imperative for their successful implementation and can be done by maximizing their operation frequency. One of the features delimiting the frequency and efficiency of such devices is the phase transition kinetics of their magnetocaloric/thermomagnetic active material. While previous studies have described the magnetic component governing the kinetics of the magnetovolume phase transition in La(Fe,Si) 13 giant magnetocaloric materials, a comprehensive description of its structural component has yet to be explored. In this study, in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction is employed to describe the structural changes upon magnetic field application/removal. Long magnetic field dependent relaxation times up to a few hundred seconds are observed after the driving field is paused. The phase transition is found to be highly asymmetric upon magnetic field cycling due to the different Gibbs energy landscapes and the absence of an energy barrier upon field removal. An exponential relationship is found between the energy barriers and the relaxation times, suggesting the process is governed by a non-thermal activation over an energy barrier process. Such fundamental knowledge on first-order phase transition kinetics suggests pathways for materials optimization and smarter design of magnetic field cycling in real-life devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Performance of neutron spectrum unfolding using deuterated liquid scintillator

The performance of the maximum likelihood expectation maximization method for unfolding neutron energy spectra using deuterated liquid scintillator is evaluated for future utilization with rare isotope beams. High-resolution neutron energy spectra as well as the detector response matrix were measured at the Edwards Accelerator Laboratory at Ohio University. Maximum-likelihood expectation maximization (MLEM) unfolded neutron spectra are compared with spectra from neutron time-of-flight. In conclusion, the effects of the MLEM stopping criteria and spectrum statistics are also investigated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A monolithic antineutrino detector for non-intrusive reactor monitoring

Recent advances in organic detection media have found applications in reactor antineutrino physics. One example is the Precision Oscillation and Spectrum Experiment (PROSPECT), which leveraged pulse-shape sensitivity to enable a successful surface deployment at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), achieving a signal to background of 4:1. PROSPECT utilized almost 4 tonnes of 6 Li-doped pulse-shape sensitive liquid scintillator in a two-dimensional segmented array. It used a combination of pulse-shape sensitivity and position sensitivity via segmentation to reduce the most prominent form of correlated background for surface detectors — cosmogenic fast neutrons. These new liquids may enable detector designs that bring additional tools for reducing backgrounds while reducing engineering complexity. In this paper, we present an investigation into a detector design that exploits properties of these liquids by maximizing spectral and pulse-shape sensitivity via highly efficient photon detection. The detector utilizes photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) placed at the top and bottom of a right cylinder, with highly reflective white walls. This design sacrifices some position sensitivity for maximal photon efficiency. In conclusion, the design choice has consequences for the identification of the background and antineutrino sensitivity, which we examine.

Pulse shape↗

Filament-induced breakdown spectroscopy signal enhancement using optical wavefront control

Filament-induced breakdown spectroscopy (FIBS) is an analytical method that holds significant promise for remote sensing. In FIBS, it is desirable to maximize the intensity and improve the reproducibility of a selected spectroscopic feature. Here, we demonstrate the use of wavefront control in conjunction with a genetic algorithm in FIBS of metallic copper and show that this approach can increase the efficacy of filament-induced breakdown signal production. Through wavefront optimization, we enhance the intensity of a chosen characteristic spectroscopic feature of copper by a factor of approximately 3 when performing filamentation over a 1-meter distance. The relative standard deviation of signal intensity is reduced from ~17% to ~12% after optimization. We find that modification of the wavefront by introduction of astigmatism and coma maximizes the signal intensity, and these aberrations appear in two distinct trials of the genetic algorithm. We compare these findings to previous work on multiple filament control and discuss the possible mechanisms that lead to signal enhancement associated with both the beam amplitude and phase profile. A broader use of wavefront control with feedback may improve the performance of FIBS in remote sensing applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cascading from $\mathscr{N}$ = 2 supersymmetric Yang–Mills theory to confinement and chiral symmetry breaking in adjoint QCD

We argue that adjoint QCD in 3 + 1 dimensions, with any SU(N) gauge group and two Weyl fermion flavors (i.e. one adjoint Dirac fermion), confines and spontaneously breaks its chiral symmetries via the condensation of a fermion bilinear. We flow to this theory from pure $\mathscr{N}$ = 2 SUSY Yang–Mills theory with the same gauge group, by giving a SUSY-breaking mass M to the scalars in the $\mathscr{N}$ = 2 vector multiplet. This flow can be analyzed rigorously at small M, where it leads to a deconfined vacuum at the origin of the $\mathscr{N}$ = 2 Coulomb branch. The analysis can be extended to all M using an Abelian dual description that arises from the N multi-monopole points of the $\mathscr{N}$ = 2 theory. At each such point, there are N −1 hypermultiplet Higgs fields h$^{i=1,2}_m$, which are SU(2) R doublets. We provide a detailed study of the phase diagram as a function of M, by analyzing the semi-classical phases of the dual using a combination of analytic and numerical techniques. The result is a cascade of first-order phase transitions, along which the Higgs fields h i m successively turn on, and which interpolates between the Coulomb branch at small M, where all h$^{i}_m$ = 0, and a maximal Higgs branch, where all h$^{i}_m$ ≠ 0, at sufficiently large M. We show that this maximal Higgs branch precisely matches the confining and chiral symmetry breaking phase of two-flavor adjoint QCD, including its broken and unbroken symmetries, its massless spectrum, and the expected large-N scaling of various observables. The spontaneous breaking pattern SU(2) R → U(1) R , consistent with the Vafa–Witten theorem, is ensured by an intricate alignment mechanism for the h$^{i}_m$ in the dual, and leads to a CP 1 sigma model of increasing radius along the cascade.

D’Hoker, Eric [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, C↗

Power-to-load balancing for asymmetric heave wave energy converters with nonideal power take-off

The aim of this study is to maximize the power-to-load ratio for asymmetric heave wave energy converters. Linear hydrodynamic theory was used to calculate bounds of the expected time-averaged power (TAP) and corresponding surge-restraining force, pitch-restraining torque, and power take-off (PTO) control force with the assumption of sinusoidal displacement. This paper formulates an optimal control problem to handle an objective function with competing terms in an attempt to maximize power capture while minimizing structural and actuator loads in regular and irregular waves. Penalty weights are placed on the surge-restraining force, pitch-restraining torque, and PTO actuation force, thereby allowing the control focus to concentrate on either power absorption or load mitigation. The penalty weights are used to control peak structural and actuator loads that were found to curb the additional losses in power absorption associated with a nonideal PTO. Thus, in achieving these goals, a per-unit gain in TAP would not lead to a greater per-unit demand in structural strength, hence yielding a favorable benefit-to-cost ratio. Demonstrative results for 'The Berkeley Wedge' in the form of output TAP, reactive TAP needed to drive WEC motion, and the amplitudes of the surge-restraining force, pitch-restraining torque, and PTO control force are shown.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

The state of rhizospheric science in the era of multi-omics: A practical guide to omics technologies

Over the past century, the significance of the rhizosphere as a complex, biological system, comprised of vast, interconnected networks of microbial organisms that interact directly with their plant hosts (e.g., archæa, bacteria, fungi, eukaryotes, and viruses) has been increasingly recognized by the scientific community. Providing a nutritional base to the terrestrial biosphere, the rhizosphere is integral to plant growth, crop production and ecosystem health. Lack of mechanistic understanding of the rhizosphere constitutes a critical knowledge gap, inhibiting our ability to predict and control the terrestrial ecosystem in order to achieve desirable outcomes (e.g., bioenergy production, crop yield maximization, and soilbased carbon sequestration). Application of multi-omics has the potential to significantly advance our knowledge of rhizospheric science. This review covers: cutting- and bleeding-edge, multi-omic techniques and technologies; methods and protocols for specific rhizospheric science questions; and, challenges to be addressed during this century of rhizospheric science.

multi-omics↗

The Cell Utilized Partitioning Model as a Predictive Tool for Optimizing Counter-Current Chromatography Processes

Counter-current chromatography (CCC) is capable of unique elution modes that isolate analytes using the movement of the stationary phase in addition to moving the mobile phase. These modes include elution-extrusion CCC (EECCC) and dual-mode CCC (DM CCC) that are not possible in traditional solid-liquid chromatography systems. Although EECCC and DM CCC are widely used to recover highly retained components, to our knowledge, optimizing the elution process in these modes with predictive models has not been reported. To address this gap, we developed a predictive model for CCC dubbed the Cell Utilized Partitioning (CUP) model. The CUP model accurately predicts the effluents of multicomponent separations in EECCC and DM CCC modes when compared to experimental data. Furthermore, CUP model simulations were extended to investigate the influence of operating and intrinsic parameters on the yield and productivity, and to compare the separation performances of EECCC and DM CCC in various conditions. The results demonstrate that low distribution constants, usually a KD less than 1, and a selectivity > 1.3, under specific flowrate ranges, increase both productivity and yield. From these results, generalized optimization and scaleup guidelines are proposed that can apply to research settings and to industrial processes to maximize preparative CCC performance.

BIOMASS FUELS,INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND AN↗

Steady-state off-design modeling of the supercritical carbon dioxide recompression cycle for concentrating solar power applications with two-tank sensible-heat storage

Concentrating solar power researchers are evaluating the potential of the supercritical carbon dioxide recompression cycle to improve the thermal efficiency and decrease the capital costs of next-generation systems. This analysis investigates the steady-state off-design performance of a recompression cycle integrated with two-tank sensible-heat thermal energy storage as the ambient temperature and heat-transfer fluid (HTF) inlet conditions to the cycle change. This paper presents off-design component models and then cycle convergence and control models to maximize net cycle power output while constraining the high-side pressure and air-cooler fan power to their respective design values and fixing the cycle HTF outlet temperature to its design value. Results show that inventory control and air-cooler fan power are important control parameters that can be optimized to maximize off-design power output as the ambient temperature and HTF mass flow rate diverge from design. The high-side pressure and fan power constraints cause the cycle net power to degrade when the ambient temperature is warmer than the design value, and this study calculates a maximum mass flow rate for hot days above which the cycle cannot achieve the design HTF outlet temperature. Finally, the analysis shows that optimizing compressor shaft speeds can improve cold-day performance by around 1.5 percentage points and part-load performance by up to 2.5 percentage points versus a baseline case with no active compressor control.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Simulating a solar parabolic trough collector plant used for industrial process heat using an optimized operating scheme that utilizes flexible heat integration

This study focuses on the modeling and simulation of a novel design and operation of a solar industrial process heat (SIPH) plant that uses a parabolic trough collector system for generating process heat. The SIPH plant incorporates flexible heat integration (FHI) by having two options for heat sinks as well as a flexible collection temperature for the heat transfer fluid. Leveraging the degrees of freedom created by FHI allows an optimized operating scheme to be created which maximizes the solar heat delivered to the industrial processes. Yearly results for a 27 MW-t plant located in Salt Lake City, UT are simulated for a base case and a case utilizing optimized FHI. For the main process temperature case presented, FHI increases the total solar share by 13.0% and reduces the levelized cost of heat of the SIPH plant by 10.4% relative to the base case. Furthermore, three case study days are presented which highlight how FHI maximizes solar share, specifically during mornings, afternoons, and days with intermittent solar conditions. An environmental analysis is also performed showing that the SIPH plant can reduce harmful emissions by 15.4% for the base case and 17.4% for the FHI case compared to a plant that only utilizes a natural gas furnace for process heat. Overall, the work thoroughly explores an effective operating scheme for a SIPH plant, helping to make it more economical and environmentally beneficial.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Increased seizure susceptibility and other toxicity symptoms following acute sulforaphane treatment in mice

Activation of Nrf2 with sulforaphane has recently gained attention as a new therapeutic approach in the treatment of many diseases, including epilepsy. As a plant-derived compound, sulforaphane is considered to be safe and well-tolerated. It is widely consumed, also by patients suffering from seizure and taking antiepileptic drugs, but no toxicity profile of sulforaphane exists. Since many natural remedies and dietary supplements may increase seizure risk and potentially interact with antiepileptic drugs, the aim of our study was to investigate the acute effects of sulforaphane on seizure thresholds and activity of some first- and second-generation antiepileptic drugs in mice. In addition, some preliminary toxicity profile of sulforaphane in mice after intraperitoneal injection was evaluated. The LD{sub 50} value of sulforaphane in mice was estimated at 212.67 mg/kg, while the TD{sub 50} value – at 191.58 mg/kg. In seizure tests, sulforaphane at the highest dose tested (200 mg/kg) significantly decreased the thresholds for the onset of the first myoclonic twitch and generalized clonic seizure in the iv PTZ test as well as the threshold for the 6 Hz-induced psychomotor seizure. At doses of 10–200 mg/kg, sulforaphane did not affect the threshold for the iv PTZ-induced forelimb tonus or the threshold for maximal electroshock-induced hindlimb tonus. Interestingly, sulforaphane (at 100 mg/kg) potentiated the anticonvulsant efficacy of carbamazepine in the maximal electroshock seizure test. This interaction could have been pharmacokinetic in nature, as sulforaphane increased concentrations of carbamazepine in both serum and brain tissue. The toxicity study showed that high doses of sulforaphane produced marked sedation (at 150–300 mg/kg), hypothermia (at 150–300 mg/kg), impairment of motor coordination (at 200–300 mg/kg), decrease in skeletal muscle strength (at 250–300 mg/kg), and deaths (at 200–300 mg/kg). Moreover, blood analysis showed leucopenia in mice injected with sulforaphane at 200 mg/kg. In conclusion, since sulforaphane was proconvulsant at a toxic dose, the safety profile and the risk-to-benefit ratio of sulforaphane usage in epileptic patients should be further evaluated. - Highlights: • Sulforaphane, an Nrf2 activator, is proconvulsant at toxic doses in mice. • Sulforaphane at 100 mg/kg produces a pharmacokinetic interaction with carbamazepine. • Sulforaphane has an LD{sub 50} of 212.67 mg/kg in mice (after ip administration). • The risk-to-benefit ratio of sulforaphane needs further evaluation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Distribution, lipid-bilayer affinity and kinetics of the metabolic effects of dinoseb in the liver

Dinoseb is a highly toxic pesticide of the dinitrophenol group. Its use has been restricted, but it can still be found in soils and waters in addition to being a component of related pesticides that, after ingestion by humans or animals, can originate the compound by enzymatic hydrolysis. As most dinitrophenols, dinoseb uncouples oxidative phosphorylation. In this study, distribution, lipid bilayer affinity and kinetics of the metabolic effects of dinoseb were investigated, using mainly the isolated perfused rat liver, but also isolated mitochondria and molecular dynamics simulations. Dinoseb presented high affinity for the hydrophobic region of the lipid bilayers, with a partition coefficient of 3.75 × 10{sup 4} between the hydrophobic and hydrophilic phases. Due to this high affinity for the cellular membranes dinoseb underwent flow-limited distribution in the liver. Transformation was slow but uptake into the liver space was very pronounced. For an extracellular concentration of 10 μM, the equilibrium intracellular concentration was equal to 438.7 μM. In general dinoseb stimulated catabolism and inhibited anabolism. Half-maximal stimulation of oxygen uptake in the whole liver occurred at concentrations (2.8–5.8 μM) at least ten times above those in isolated mitochondria (0.28 μM). Gluconeogenesis and ureagenesis were half-maximally inhibited at concentrations between 3.04 and 5.97 μM. The ATP levels were diminished, but differently in livers from fed and fasted rats. Dinoseb disrupts metabolism in a complex way at concentrations well above its uncoupling action in isolated mitochondria, but still at concentrations that are low enough to be dangerous to animals and humans even at sub-lethal doses. - Highlights: • Dinoseb presents high affinity for the hydrophobic region of the lipid bilayers. • Its cellular concentration may exceed the extracellular one by a factor of 43.9. • One order of magnitude separates the active concentrations in mitochondria and liver. • Hepatic metabolism is disrupted in the concentration range up to 10 μM.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Formulation and solution approach for calibrating activity-based travel demand model-system via microsimulation

This study addresses the problem of calibrating utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based travel demand model-systems. After estimation, it is common practice to use aggregate measurements to calibrate the estimated model-system’s parameters prior to their application in transportation planning, policy making, and operations. However, calibration of activity-based model-systems has received much less attention. Existing calibration approaches are myopic heuristics in the sense that they do not consider the fundamental inter-dependencies among choice-models and do not have a systematic way to adjust model parameters. Also, other purely simulation-based approaches do not perform well in large-scale applications. In this study, we focus on utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based model-systems and calibrating aggregate statistics such as activity shares, mode shares, time-dependent & mode-specific OD flows, and time-dependent & mode-specific sensor counts. We formulate the calibration problem as a simulation-based optimization problem and propose a stochastic gradient-based solution procedure to solve it. The solution procedure relies on microsimulation to calculate expectations of the aggregate statistics of interest to the calibration problem. Additionally, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the gradient of the objective function —that are evaluated through microsimulation on mini-batches of the population. The proposed solution procedure is sensitive to the fundamental structure of the activity-based model-system and is non-myopic in considering the dependencies across its model components. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex, highly nonlinear, and potentially has multiple-minima. Lastly, we show —through a real-world application— that the proposed solution procedure outperforms other state-of-the-art purely simulation-based optimization approaches in terms of computational efficiency, stability, and convergence. We also compare various gradient-based solution algorithms to determine the best algorithm to update the parameters. This work has the potential to facilitate wider and easier application of activity-based model-systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗