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At least 793 records · Page 44

Reconstruction of the 1997/1998 El Nino from TOPEX/POSEIDON and TOGA/TAO Data Using a Massively Parallel Pacific-Ocean Model and Ensemble Kalman Filter

Two massively parallel data assimilation systems in which the model forecast-error covariances are estimated from the distribution of an ensemble of model integrations are applied to the assimilation of 97-98 TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry and TOGA/TAO temperature data into a Pacific basin version the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. in the first system, ensemble of model runs forced by an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations is used to calculate asymptotic error statistics. The data assimilation then occurs in the reduced phase space spanned by the corresponding leading empirical orthogonal functions. The second system is an ensemble Kalman filter in which new error statistics are computed during each assimilation cycle from the time-dependent ensemble distribution. The data assimilation experiments are conducted on NSIPP's 512-processor CRAY T3E. The two data assimilation systems are validated by withholding part of the data and quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The pros and cons of each system are discussed.

Keppenne, C. L.↗

Characterizing the 2019-2021 Drought in La Plata River Basin With GLDAS and SMAP

Study region The La Plata River Basin (LPRB) is an area of interest, as there was a significant drought event from 2019 to 2021. With the LPRB being the second largest river basin in South America, this drought affected all aspects of life for over 100 million people who inhabit this area. Study focus In this study, we utilized satellite and model datasets to examine spatial and temporal variability of hydrological anomalies throughout the basin before and during the drought event. These variable anomalies, such as precipitation and groundwater, are derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Additionally, the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations were used in the spatial and temporal analysis of the drought. The water loss was calculated using the Mann-Kendall test to assess the changes in anomalies for the terrestrial water storage throughout the basin and subbasins. New hydrological insights for the region The main insight from this study is the agreement of the GLDAS anomalies with the SMAP data throughout the drought. The variable anomalies all decreased and showed alignment with the downscaled 1 km SMAP which shows alignment with the trends from in-situ observations. It was also found that the Upper Parana subbasin lost the most water over the drought period. These products improve understanding of the spatial variability within the entire basin and facilitate understanding of droughts and resources to assist in the future management of water resources.

La Plata Basin↗

Bulk cloud microphysical properties as seen from numerical simulation and remote sensing products: case study of a hailstorm event over the La Plata Basin

Hailstorms develop over the La Plata Basin, in south-eastern South America, more often during later winter and early austral spring, between September and October. These systems have significant socioeconomic impacts over the region. Thus, a better understanding of how atmospheric drivers modulate the formation of hailstorms is important to improve the forecast of such phenomena. In this study, we selected a hailstorm event observed over the eastern La Plata Basin during 14–15 July 2016 to evaluate the performance of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (BRAMS) model. The ability of the model in simulating cloud microphysical properties was evaluated by comparing simulations driven by different global forcings against in situ and remote sensing observations. The model results showed good skill in capturing the basic characteristics of the thunderstorm, particularly in terms of the spatial distribution of hydrometeors. The simulated spatial distribution of hail covers locations where hail fall was reported. The BRAMS simulations suggest that, despite relatively low values of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) (700–1000 J kg -1 ), environments with strong 0–8-km bulk shear (60–70 kt, ~30.9–36.0 m s –1 ) can promote the formation of ice clouds and hail fall over the eastern La Plata Basin. To be more conclusive, however, further research is needed to understand how different combinations of CAPE and shear affect hail formation over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of CO 2 storage and enhanced oil recovery in residual oil zones

Residual oil zones (ROZs) are reservoirs in which oil is swept over geologic time period and exists at residual saturation. The oil in such reservoirs cannot be commercially exploited using conventional oil recovery methods as the oil exists at residual oil saturation. Instead, enhanced oil recovery methods such as CO 2 injection are required. Recently, ROZs have been increasingly studied as potential CO 2 storage targets. In spite of increased interest in ROZs, there are significant gaps in the knowledge of parameters and processes that impact CO 2 storage and oil recovery. In this work, we identify key geologic and operational characteristics that affect CO 2 storage capacity and oil recovery potential by performing Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis. In addition to CO 2 storage capacity, we also characterize the long-term CO 2 fate in ROZs. The distinction of CO 2 storage in ROZs from conventional oil reservoirs and saline aquifers are also characterized. Furthermore, predictive models based on machine learning techniques are developed to estimate CO 2 storage and oil production potentials for ROZs. The applicability of the predictive models is demonstrated for five ROZs in the Permian Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of Probable Maximum Flood in a Changing Environment

With likely increases in probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in a changing environment, critical infrastructures such as major reservoirs and nuclear power plants are subject to elevated risk. To understand how factors such as PMP variability, climate change, land use land cover (LULC) change, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and reservoir storage may individually or jointly affect the magnitude of probable maximum flood (PMF), we conducted integrated hydrometeorological simulations involving both the Weather Research Forecasting model and the distributed hydrologic model (DHSVM) over the Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin in the southeastern United States. A total of 120 relative humidity–maximized PMP storms under historic and projected future climate conditions were used to drive DHSVM in current and projected future LULC conditions. Overall, PMP and PMF are projected to increase significantly over the ACT River Basin. Sources of meteorological forcing data sets and climate change were found to be the most sensitive factors affecting PMF, followed by antecedent soil moisture, reservoir storage, and then LULC change. In conclusion, the ensemble of PMP and PMF simulations, along with their sensitivity, allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydroclimatic extreme events to critical infrastructures for energy–water security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Adaptive Irrigation Impacts on Water Scarcity in Nonstationary Environments—A Multi‐Agent Reinforcement Learning Approach

Abstract One major challenge in water resource management is to balance the uncertain and nonstationary water demands and supplies caused by the changing anthropogenic and hydroclimate conditions. To address this issue, we developed a reinforcement learning agent‐based modeling (RL‐ABM) framework where agents (agriculture water users) are able to learn and adjust water demands based on their interactions with the water systems. The intelligent agents are created by a reinforcement learning algorithm adapted from the Q‐learning algorithm. We illustrated this framework in a case study where the RL‐ABM is two‐way coupled with the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS), a long‐term planning model used for the administration of the Colorado River Basin, for assessing agriculture water uses impacts on water scarcity. Seventy‐eight intelligent agents are simulated, which can be grouped into three categories based on their parameter values: the “aggressive” (swift actions; low regrets), the “forward‐looking conservative” (mild actions; high regrets; fast learning), and the “myopic conservative” (mild actions; median regrets; slow learning). The ABM‐CRSS results showed that the major reservoirs in the Upper Colorado Basin might experience more frequent water shortages due to the increasing water uses compared to the original CRSS results. If the drought continues, the case study also demonstrates that agents can learn and adjust their demands.

Hung, Fengwei↗

Modeling Snow Dynamics and Stable Water Isotopes Across Mountain Landscapes

Abstract A coupled hydrologic and snowpack stable water isotope model assesses controls on isotopic inputs across a mountainous basin. Annually, the most depleted isotope conditions occur in the upper subalpine where snow accumulation is high, and rainfall is low. Snowmelt isotopic evolution over time indicates fractionation processes account for <25% snowmelt enrichment. Meltwater isotopic inputs are largely determined by controls on the amount, phase and isotopic mass of precipitation coincident with the ablation period. Effect of vapor loss from the snowpack on d‐excess in snowmelt is a balance between energy and snow‐availability. It is highest above treeline, and in the grass and aspen‐dominated portions of the upper montane where vegetation shading is low. Deep snowpack in conifer forests limit the influence of vapor loss in the subalpine. Wet years reduce the effects of vapor loss on snowmelt across the basin, except in the lower montane where added snowfall bolsters snow‐limited conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Congo Basin Water Balance and Terrestrial Fluxes Inferred From Satellite Observations of the Isotopic Composition of Water Vapor

Large spatio-temporal gradients in the Congo basin vegetation and rainfall are observed. However, its water-balance (evapotranspiration minus precipitation, or ET - P) is typically measured at basin-scales, limited primarily by river-discharge data, spatial resolution of terrestrial water storage measurements, and poorly constrained ET. We use observations of the isotopic composition of water vapor to quantify the spatio-temporal variability of net surface water fluxes across the Congo Basin between 2003 and 2018. These data are calibrated at basin scale using satellite gravity and total Congo river discharge measurements and then used to estimate time-varying ET - P over four quadrants representing the Congo Basin, providing first estimates of this kind for the region. We find that the multi-year record, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET - P from both the isotopes and the gravity/river discharge based estimates are consistent. Additionally, we use precipitation and gravity-based estimates with our water vapor isotope-based ET - P to calculate time and space averaged ET and net river discharge within the Congo Basin. These quadrant-scale moisture flux estimates indicate (a) substantial recycling of moisture in the Congo Basin (temporally and spatially averaged ET/P > 70%), consistent with models and visible light-based ET estimates, and (b) net river outflow is largest in the Western Congo where there are more rivers and higher flow rates. Our results confirm the importance of ET in modulating the Congo water cycle relative to other water sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanisms for Microseismicity Occurrence Due to CO 2 Injection at Decatur, Illinois: A Coupled Multiphase Flow and Geomechanics Perspective

Here, we numerically investigate the mechanisms that resulted in induced seismicity occurrence associated with CO 2 injection at the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP). We build a geologically consistent model that honors key stratigraphic horizons and 3D fault surfaces interpreted using surface seismic data and microseismicity locations. We populate our model with reservoir and geomechanical properties estimated using well-log and core data. We then performed coupled multiphase flow and geomechanics modeling to investigate the impact of CO 2 injection on fault stability using the Coulomb failure criteria. We calibrate our flow model using measured reservoir pressure during the CO 2 injection phase. Our model results show that pore-pressure diffusion along faults connecting the injection interval to the basement is essential to explain the destabilization of the regions where microseismicity occurred, and that poroelastic stresses alone would result in stabilization of those regions. Slip tendency analysis indicates that, due to their orientations with respect to the maximum horizontal stress direction, the faults where the microseismicity occurred were very close to failure prior to injection. These model results highlight the importance of accurate subsurface fault characterization for CO 2 sequestration operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Perch Area Petrel Project

The SEM in this Petrel project is based, in part, on an earlier model prepared at Battelle (1) that covers Michigan's Northern Pinnacle Reef trend. While the existing SEM focused on the Niagaran section, this Petrel project expands the framework to included overlying and underlying geologic zones. Where available, geomechanical logs were incorporated into the model.

carbonates↗

HPC4Mobilty w/ UCB

The purpose of this project is to examine the energy impact of urban-scale traffic for the Los Angeles Basin by developing and implementing a scalable traffic assignment model. An energy optimization function will be posed and when integrated into the optimization code for travel assignment it can be mathematically proven to converge. The energy optimization function can then be compared to the typical travel time optimization that is traditionally used in traffic assignment models. The analysis will begin with static traffic assignment models with the routing for all origin and destinations computed in parallel on high performance computing facilities. Convergence of the numerical methods rely on the solution of convex programs (or extensions of these). This step will mostly consist of demonstrating the ability to parallelize the Frank Wolfe algorithm on various platforms. This work will contribute to LBNL’s efforts to develop new processes, analytical tools, program designs, and business models to advance the state of the art in next-generation sustainable transportation solutions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Optimization of Geometric Perturbations on a Rod Moving Through a High Explosive Target

After completing a study to ensure the simulation results were converged, several high resolution 3D Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) simulations of copper rods impacting a high explosive (LX14) target were performed. This was then formulated into an optimization problem: I wanted to find the optimum shape and location of a perturbation on the rod that would maximize its erosion after it left the target. The shape of the perturbation was modeled as a 2D Gaussian bump and parameterized by its location along the rod axis (z 0 ) and amplitude (A). The final mass of the coherent part of the rod as it leaves the target was used as a metric to represent the erosion of the rod, and the optimization was formulated to maximize this metric with respect to the aforementioned design variables. Due to the expensive nature of the high-fidelity 3D SPH simulations, a surrogate model needed to be chosen so that many function calls to the optimizer would be feasible. Thus, a strategic full factorial sampling plan was chosen to build a dataset, which consisted of 24 high-fidelity simulations. Two surrogate models, a third order polynomial regression model and a Gaussian Process Model, were analyzed using a 14%/86% test/train holdout technique. The root mean square and R2 score of the test set was used to determine the best model, and the third order polynomial regression model was chosen as the surrogate model. Finally, the Nelder-Mead Simplex and Basin-hopping optimization algorithms were implemented, and it was found that the two algorithms gave slightly different optimum values. Nelder-Mead gave an optimum point of [z* 0 ;A*] = [9:9;0:4] and Basin-Hopping gave an optimum value of x* = [z* 0 ;A*] = [9:2;0:1].

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A robust aerosol impact on clouds along the subtropical to tropical transition

Marine clouds undergo a transition from subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) to shallow cumulus (Cu) and eventually to deep convective (DC) systems as air masses advect from the subtropics towards the deep tropics. How aerosols modulate this Lagrangian cloud evolution remains largely uncertain. Here we use both 5 years of satellite observations mapped along 8 d Lagrangian trajectories and complementary large-eddy simulations from 9 initiation locations across the Northeast Pacific, Southeast Pacific, and Southeast Atlantic. This Lagrangian framework allows us to quantify the aerosol effect and its co-variability with meteorological conditions on cloud microphysics, macrophysics, and top-of-atmosphere radiation through the full Sc-Cu-DC transition. We show that increasing aerosol concentrations leads to deeper and more reflective clouds throughout this cloud transition. Examining the thermodynamic evolution along the trajectory indicates a well-known trend: enhanced moistening near the boundary-layer top and lower free troposphere under polluted conditions, suggesting that part of the co-variability between aerosol and meteorological conditions may be internally driven. The agreement between model simulations and satellite data alongside the multi-basin coherence of the results indicates that aerosols systematically amplify cloud depth and reflectivity during the subtropical–to–tropical cloud transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Candidate areas for in situ ancient lunar materials

Results of high-speed impact cratering in quartz sand targets are reported. Dissection of the ejecta plumes of the craters revealed that they are relatively thin conical sheets. Further dissection showed the relationship between individual particle trajectories and the ejecta plume. A model of cratering, based on the experiments, was used to explain the inverted stratigraphy previously described in laboratory impact craters and in meteorite craters. Mantling of secondary craters in peripheral parts of the continuous deposits of Tycho Crater and in the downrange parts of certain Tycho secondary crater clusters is accounted for by the model. Model results indicate extensive mixing by secondary cratering when basin ejecta is emplaced. The study reveals certain areas on the lunar uplands that have been relatively uncratered by basin secondaries and unmantled by secondary crater debris surges and that may represent in situ ancient lunar materials.

Oberbeck, V. R.↗

Kinematics at the Intersection of the Garlock and Death Valley Fault Zones, California: Integration of TM Data and Field Studies

Kinematic relationships at the intersection of the southern Death Valley and Garlock fault zones were examined to identify and delineate the eastern structural boundary between the Mojave and the Basin and Range geologic terrains, and to construct a model for the evolution of this boundary through time. In order to accomplish this, satellite imagery was combined with field investigations to study six areas in the vicinity of the intersection, or possible extensions, of the fault zones. The information gathered from these areas allows the test of various hypotheses that were proposed to explain the interaction between the Death Valley and Garlock fault zones.

Verosub, Kenneth L.↗

Origin of the Vredefort structure, South Africa: Impact model

A model is presented for the evolution of the Vredefort structure, based on reasoned constraints on the original size of the Vredefort structure from observational data and comparison with other terrestrial impact craters. The models for complex craters (ring and multi-ring basins) of Croft, Grieve, and co-workers, and Schultz and co-workers, were used to reconstruct the Vredefort impact event, using a final crater diameter of 300 km, as estimated by Therriault. The sequence of events (stages 2-5) is illustrated diagramatically. The stages are: initial penetration, excavation and compression, dynamic rebound and uplift, maximum radial growth and collapse, and final crater form.

Therriault, A. M.↗

Gale Crater: An Amazonian Impact Crater Lake at the Plateau/Plain Boundary

Gale is a 140-km diameter impact crater located at the plateau/plain boundary in the Aeolis Northeast subquadrangle of Mars (5S/223W). The crater is bordered in the northward direction by the Elysium Basin, and in eastward direction by Hesperian channels and the Aeolis Mensae 2. The crater displays a rim with two distinct erosion stages: (a) though eroded, the south rim of Gale has an apparent crest line visible from the north to the southwest (b) the west and northwest rims are characterized by a strong erosion that, in some places, partially destroyed the rampart, leaving remnant pits embayed in smooth-like deposits. The same type of deposits is observed north, outside Gale, it also borders the Aeolis Mensae, covers the bottom of the plateau scarp, and the crater floor. The central part of Gale shows a 6400 km2 subround and asymmetrical deposit: (a) the south part is composed of smooth material, (b) the north part shows spectacular terraces, streamlines, and channels. The transition between the two parts of the deposit is characterized by a scarp ranging from 200 to 2000 in high. The highest point of the scarp is at the center of the crater, and probably corresponds to a central peak. Gale crater does not show a major channel directly inflowing. However, several large fluvi systems are bordering the crater, and could be at the origin of the flooding of the crater, or have contributed to. One fluvial system is entering the crater by the southwest rim but cannot be accounted alone for the volume of sediment deposited in the crater. This channel erodes the crater floor deposit, and ends in a irregular-shaped and dark albedo feature. Gale crater shows the morphology of a crater filled during sedimentation episodes, and then eroded Part of the lower sediment deposition contained in Gale might be ancient and not only aqueous in origin. According to the regional geologic history, the sedimentary deposit could be a mixture of aeolian and pyroclastic material, and aqueous sedimentary material that can originate both from drainage of the regional subsurface aquifer, and/or from surface flood. The central deposit shows three main levels: (a) the current crater floor (north of Gale), (b) an ancient level about 200 rn higher (south of Gale), and (c) the massive terraced deposits. A crater statistics on the 15,400 kM2 area of the crater floor and deposit [3,41 gave: 259+/-112.4 craters, most of them partly embayed in the sedimentary deposit, and all inferior to 5-km diameter. For superimposed crater population only, the result is 194+/-112. The deduced relative ages ranges from Early to Middle Amazonian. The population of craters are comparable for the three levels, implying that the last sedimentation/erosion episode on Gale was recent and affected the whole crater. The streamlined morphology of the border of the deposit, the layering, the channels, and the terraces are compatible with a significant fluvio-lacustrine history of the site. Multiple levels may suggest different episodes, but the common statistical age of the three levels shows that the last episode involved the whole crater. The origin of the lake water in Gale may have varied in time. Three major contributions have been proposed: (a) the drainage of the regional underground aquifer by Gale crater over an area of 110-km radius around the crater which would have provided approximately 1,600 cubic km of water, (b), surface drainage entering Gale by the south and north rims. In the south, a 250-km long system originates in the cratered uplands in a Noachian crater material plain (Nc), and crosses Hesperian and Amazonian crater material plains (AHc) northward [1]. Several fluvial systems originate in the Aeolis Mensae, east of Gale. They may had two functions in time: to recharge, the underground aquifer in the region of Gale, and to supply surface water in the crater by overspilling the northern rim, and (c) surface floods that originated from the rising of the water level in the Elysium Basin. According to the Amazonian age of Gale's floor, and the erosion direction in the crater, a flood from Elysium Basin is the most likely event to explain the material observed in Gale, and the formation of the last lake. This last flood may have been important enough to flood the central deposit up to about 1400 m above the crater floor, leaving two islands (non stream lined features) at the center of the deposit. Terrace spacing suggests a regular drop of the lake level in time. Fractures in terraces perpendicular to the shoreline can be interpreted either as: (a) the result of the drainage systems during the waning of the lake, or (b) traces of the pressure of an ice-covered sheet associated with subglacial drainage. The presence of a lake of such volume during the Amazonian period is one more evidence that water was still active on Mars relatively recently. Gale crater offers the rare opportunity to unveil a key-period of the martian history. The Amazonian might proved not as cold and dry as previously thought. The presence of large lakes and basins (Elysium Basin is large as the Mediterranean Sea), reinforces the model of an extensive water activity during the Amazonian that has still to be understood in the context of an assumed cooling and drying planet. The sediments and rocks that were left of this period in Gale keep the record of the climatic conditions of the Amazonian and the clues that are missing to understand the climatic evolution of Mars. In addition, Gale crater presents the advantage to be located at the plateau/plain boundary, which has never been studied and contains information about the two main martian geological units. As a conclusion, we propose a table that summarizes the worthiness of a mission in Gale crater, and the expected science return relative to the objectives to be met by the Surveyor Program. Additional information contained in the original.

Cabrol, N. A.↗

Waters Loads on the XJL-1 Hull as Obtained in Langley Impact Basin, TED No. NACA 2413.3

An investigation was conducted in the Langley impact basin of the water loads on a half scale model of the XJL-1 hull whose forebody has a vee bottom with exaggerated chine flare. The impact loads, moments, and pressures were determined for a range of landing conditions. A normal full-scale landing speed of 86 miles per hour was represented with effective flight paths ranging from 0.6deg to 11.6deg. Landings were made with both fixed trim and free-to-trim mounting of the float over a trim range of -15deg to 12deg into smooth water and into waves having equivalent full-scale length. of 120 feet and heights ranging from 1 to 4 feet. All data and results presented in this report are given in terms of equivalent full-scale values. Summary tables and illustrative plots are used in presenting the material. The following maximum values of load and pressure are those which are apropos for effective flight paths less than 6.5deg which was the maximum value obtained in tests with the XJL-1 hull model representing full-scale landings with vertical velocity of 4.5 feet per second into 4-foot waves. The maximum local pressure on the flat portion of the bottom is 130 pounds per square inch which was measured on a 2-inch-diameter circular area near the step. The maximum local pressure obtained in the curved area near the chines is 200 pounds per square inch. This pressure was also measured near the step.

Steiner, Margaret F.↗