Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Multiple soil nutrient competition between plants, microbes, and mineral surfaces: model development, parameterization, and example applications in several tropical forests

Soil is a complex system where biotic (e.g., plant roots, micro-organisms) and abiotic (e.g., mineral surfaces) consumers compete for resources necessary for life (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorus). This competition is ecologically significant, since it regulates the dynamics of soil nutrients and controls aboveground plant productivity. Here we develop, calibrate and test a nutrient competition model that accounts for multiple soil nutrients interacting with multiple biotic and abiotic consumers. As applied here for tropical forests, the Nutrient COMpetition model (N-COM) includes three primary soil nutrients (NH 4 + , NO 3 − and PO x ; representing the sum of PO 4 3− , HPO 4 2− and H 2 PO 4 − ) and five potential competitors (plant roots, decomposing microbes, nitrifiers, denitrifiers and mineral surfaces). The competition is formulated with a quasi-steady-state chemical equilibrium approximation to account for substrate (multiple substrates share one consumer) and consumer (multiple consumers compete for one substrate) effects. N-COM successfully reproduced observed soil heterotrophic respiration, N 2 O emissions, free phosphorus, sorbed phosphorus and NH 4 + pools at a tropical forest site (Tapajos). The overall model uncertainty was moderately well constrained. Our sensitivity analysis revealed that soil nutrient competition was primarily regulated by consumer–substrate affinity rather than environmental factors such as soil temperature or soil moisture. Our results also imply that under strong nutrient limitation, relative competitiveness depends strongly on the competitor functional traits (affinity and nutrient carrier enzyme abundance). We then applied the N-COM model to analyze field nitrogen and phosphorus perturbation experiments in two tropical forest sites (in Hawaii and Puerto Rico) not used in model development or calibration. Under soil inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus elevated conditions, the model accurately replicated the experimentally observed competition among nutrient consumers. Although we used as many observations as we could obtain, more nutrient addition experiments in tropical systems would greatly benefit model testing and calibration. In summary, the N-COM model provides an ecologically consistent representation of nutrient competition appropriate for land BGC models integrated in Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Uncertainty Quantification of Artemis I Space Launch System Integrated Aerodynamics Databases

Accurate prediction of integrated aerodynamic forces and moments is a necessary part of aerospace vehicle development. This accuracy can be quantified in the form of an uncertainty model, which makes the prediction more useful within an integrated vehicle design effort. Aerodynamic force and moment databases were constructed for the Artemis~I mission of the Space Launch System vehicle. These databases reconcile data from multiple sources to yield unified predictions of how NASA's most advanced launch vehicle interacts with Earth's atmosphere as it ascends into orbit. This paper outlines how the uncertainty quantification was performed for these databases to ensure comprehensive and tractable uncertainty source coverage.

Michael W Lee↗
DOE OSTI2024

STAT7 v1.2 User Guide: The STAT7 Code for Statistical Propagation of Uncertainties in Steady-State Thermal Hydraulics Analysis of Plate-Fueled Reactors

The STAT7 software was developed to perform steady-state, single-phase thermal hydraulics analysis of plate-fueled reactors based on statistical propagation of uncertainties. Application of the software is for non-power research and test reactors, including conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors such as Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor. Since it can be necessary to repeat analysis during fuel reloading, STAT7 accommodates flexibility in analyzing many realistic aspects of reactor fuel management. STAT7 uses a Monte Carlo approach to model uncertainty in common fuel fabrication parameters and other key reactor operating parameters required for thermal hydraulics analyses of research and test reactors. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux, or onset of flow instability. STAT7 supports water properties based on the IAPWS-IF97 functions (The International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam Industrial Formulation 1997 for the Thermodynamic Properties of Water and Steam) in addition to the fit functions. STAT7 predicts axial profiles of fuel, cladding, and coolant temperature along a lateral stripe that runs the full length of the fuel plate from the bottom to the top. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze all of the axial nodes of all of the fuel plates and all of the coolant channels for one latera stripe of a fuel element. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. By running STAT7 multiple times, full core analysis can be performed by analyzing the margin to onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each fuel element in the core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Geothermal play-fairway analysis of Washington State prospects

Herein, analysis of existing geologic, geophysical, and geochemical data revealed areas with elevated heat and permeability, defining three promising plays along the central axis of the magmatic arc of Washington State: Mount St. Helens, Wind River valley, and the southeast flank of Mount Baker. These areas are geothermal ‘fairways’, or locations with high geothermal resource potential based on modeling. This project applies innovative data analyses (Poly3D) in conjunction with methods proven in previous geothermal favorability studies (ArcGIS and MATLAB) to extract new value from existing public data. Heat and permeability potential models for each play are weighted using the Analytical Hierarchy Process, and combined to map geothermal resource potential and locations for further data collection at each site. Heat potential is based on: (1) temperature gradients, (2) volcanic vents, (3) Quaternary intrusive rocks, (4) spring temperature, and (5) spring geothermometry. Permeability potential is based on: (1) slip and (2) dilation tendency on mapped and seismic faults (3) maximum shear strain rate, and (4) dilatational strain rate at the surface, (5) modeled fault displacement distribution, and (6) displacement gradient, (7) shear, and (8) tensile fracture density, and (9) local geology and geophysical data. This information is vital for revealing the small scale heat and permeability potential of each study area, locating areas of undiscovered or untapped resources, and reducing the risk and cost involved in greenfield exploration and development. Preliminary analysis of the three play areas shows promise for geothermal development. Uncertainty modeling is underway and the results will guide future exploration plans.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a flagship of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP has become a recognised ‘brand’ in climate circles evolving over the last thirty years from a targeted research activity by a small number of climate modelling centres intercomparing their Earth System Model (ESM) simulations to a broad international coordinated research effort (Durack et al, 2025). CMIP is organized as a research activity leveraging funded and in-kind contributions from experts within modelling centres and the broader scientific community supported more recently by a fully-funded International Project Office. Within CMIP, Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are community-designed to understand past, present and future climate. CMIP data provides a valuable resource for climate research and is routinely used to assess model representation of climate processes and test scientific hypotheses in the context of model uncertainty and (forced and internal) variability as evident from its prolific use in scientific publications1 . The impact relies on enabling infrastructure (most prominently via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)), which allows sharing of simulation output, provision of the boundary conditions used in each simulation, and definition of the data standards that are essential to facilitating wide use of the data. The impact is supplemented by the wide-ranging scrutiny to which model simulations are subjected. Beyond its use in research, CMIP data is a key resource for communities producing derived climate information from downscaling and impact studies, such as the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Gutowski et al., 2016) and the Intersectoral Impacts MIP (ISIMIP; Frieler et al., 2024). Government, academic and commercial entities also increasingly rely on CMIP and its downstream data for climate risk assessments and climate services (for example, Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Bank portal). This means that, although CMIP is a research activity, it increasingly serves a secondary and very relevant role as a provider of climate data – a long-recognised dichotomy (Stevens, 2024). Research and applications have distinct needs, with the former requiring flexibility and generality and the latter consistency. Here we explain how the design of the research activity has been adapted to reduce the burdens imposed by applications and how the research infrastructure might evolve to further enable scientific inquiry. We propose one possible approach to consistently providing model information and projections for applications in the future.

Environmental sciences↗
NASA NTRS1986

Attitude control system synthesis for the Hoop/Column antenna using the LQG/LTR method

This paper investigates the application of the linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG)/loop transfer recovery (LTR) method to the problem of synthesizing a fine-pointing control system for a large flexible space anenna. The study is based on an antenna, which consists of three rigid-body rotational modes and the first ten elastic modes. A robust compensator design for achieving the required pointing performance in the presence of modeling uncertainties is obtained using the LQG/LTR method. For the Hoop/Column antenna, a satisfactory controller design meeting a desired bandwidth of .1 rad/sec and ensuring stability with unmodelled high frequency modes is obtained using only a collocated pair of 3-axis attitude sensors and torque actuators. This study also indicates that to achieve the desired performance bandwidth of 0.1 rad/sec. and to ensure stability in the presence of higher frequency elastic modes, the design model should include at least the first three flexible modes together with the rigid body modes.

Sundararajan, N.↗
NASA NTRS1992

On actuator placement for robust time-optimal control of uncertain flexible spacecraft

The problem of computing open-loop, on-off jet firing logic for flexible spacecraft in the face of plant modeling uncertainty is investigated. The primary control objective is to achieve a fast maneuvering time with a minimum of structural vibrations during and/or after a maneuver. This paper is also concerned with the problem of selecting a proper pair of jets for practical trade-offs among the maneuvering time, fuel consumption, structural mode excitation, and performance robustness. A time-optimal control problem subject to parameter robustness constraints is formulated. A three-mass-spring model of flexible spacecraft with a rigid-body mode and two flexible modes is used to illustrate the concept.

Wie, Bong↗
DOE OSTI2025

STAT7 v2.0 User Guide

The STAT7 software was developed to perform steady-state, single-phase thermal hydraulics analysis of plate-fueled reactors based on statistical propagation of uncertainties. Application of the software includes non-power research and test reactor analysis, and it has been used for the conversion to low- enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High Performance Research Reactors such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor. Since it can be necessary to repeat reactor safety analysis, such as during fuel reloading, STAT7 accommodates flexibility in analyzing many practical aspects of reactor fuel management. STAT7 uses a Monte Carlo approach to model uncertainty in common fuel fabrication parameters and other key reactor operating parameters required for reactor thermal hydraulics analysis. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux, or onset of flow instability. STAT7 supports water properties based on the IAPWS-IF97 functions (The International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam Industrial Formulation 1997 for the Thermodynamic Properties of Water and Steam) in addition to fitted functions. STAT7 predicts axial profiles of fuel, cladding, and coolant temperature along a lateral stripe that runs the full length of the fuel plate from the bottom to the top. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze every axial node in each lateral stripe of all fuel plates and coolant channels in every fuel element of an entire reactor core. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. In a single execution, STAT7 can be used to perform full core analysis by analyzing the margin to onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each fuel element in the core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2012

The verification and uncertainty quantification of surrogate models used for structural analysis

High fidelity modeling of complex systems can require large finite element models to capture the physics of interest. Typically these high-order models take an excessively long time to run. For important studies such as model validation and uncertainty quantification, where probabilistic measures of the response are required, a large number of simulations of the high fidelity model with different parameters are necessary. In addition, some environments, such as an extensive random vibration excitation, require a long simulation time to capture the entire event. A process that produces a highly efficient model from the original high order model is necessary to enable these analyses. These highly efficient models are referred to as surrogate models, for their purpose is to represent the main physics that is of importance, but decrease the computational burden. A critical aspect of any surrogate model is how faithfully the efficient model represents the original high-order model. This paper describes the process for verifying a surrogate model using response quantities of interest and quantifying the introduced uncertainties in the use of the surrogate model. This is done to help any analyst if they use any surrogate model; such has, Craig-Bampton Reduc tions, POD, etc.

Ross, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear two-point correlation functions

Here, we perform a blinded cosmology analysis with cosmic shear two-point correlation functions measured from more than 25 million galaxies in the Hyper Suprime-Cam three-year shear catalog in four tomographic redshift bins ranging from 0.3 to 1.5. After conservative masking and galaxy selection, the survey covers 416 deg 2 of the northern sky with an effective galaxy number density of 15 arcmin –2 over the four redshift bins. The 2PCFs adopted for cosmology analysis are measured in the angular range; 7.1 <θ/arcmin < 56.6 for ξ + and 31.2 < θ/arcmin < 248 for ξ – , with a total signal-to-noise ratio of 26.6. We apply a conservative, wide, flat prior on the photometric redshift errors on the last two tomographic bins, and the relative magnitudes of the cosmic shear amplitude across four redshift bins allow us to calibrate the photometric redshift errors. With this flat prior on redshift errors, we find Ω m = 0.25⁢6$^{+0.056}_{–0.044}$ and S 8 ≡ σ 8 ⁢$\sqrt{Ω_{m}/0.3}$ = 0.76⁢9$^{+0.031}_{–0.034}$ (both 68% C.I.) for a flat Λ cold dark matter cosmology. We find, after unblinding, that our constraint on S 8 is consistent with the Fourier space cosmic shear and the 3 × 2 pt analyses on the same HSC dataset. We carefully study the potential systematics from astrophysical and systematic model uncertainties in our fiducial analysis using synthetic data, and report no biases (including projection bias in the posterior space) greater than 0.5σ in the estimation of S 8 . Our analysis hints that the mean redshifts of the two highest tomographic bins are higher than initially estimated. In addition, a number of consistency tests are conducted to assess the robustness of our analysis. Comparing our result with Planck-2018 cosmic microwave background observations, we find a ~2σ tension for the Λ ⁢CDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. By using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. Here, we show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. Our results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

STS-1 orbital trajectory reconstruction using unmodelled acceleration estimation

A postflight trajectory reconstruction and analysis were conducted in order to determine the effects of unmodeled thrusting on the Space Shuttle Orbiter, to generate representative thrusting uncertainties for input to error analyses, and to evaluate the accuracy of the Ancillary trajectory data product and real-time vectors. The methods of selecting appropriate data arcs, time placement of compensation forces, limitations of the orbit determination process, and methods of evaluating solutions obtained from various force combinations are presented. It is shown that the estimation of forces to compensate for uncoupled attitude maneuvers and attitude hold maintenance thrusting significantly improves the postflight reconstruction of Space Shuttle Orbiter trajectories. A reduction of measurement residual statistics due to dynamic model uncertainties yields improved accuracy for postflight orbit determination.

Lacarna, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

NUMI Flux Systematic Uncertainties

The Imaging Cosmic And Rare Underground Signals (ICARUS) detector is a 476 t active liquid argon time projection chamber neutrino detector at Fermilab. ICARUS lies 795 m downstream and 5.75◦ off-axis from the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam. To create a neutrino beam NuMI directs pulsed beam of 120 GeV protons onto a graphite target to create hadrons, which are then focused by magnetic horns and allowed to decay into neutrinos. At the ICARUS off-axis angle the neutrino flux originates from the decays of unfocused/antifocused pions decays and from high-transverse momentum kaon decays. These contributions allow ICARUS to observe a significant flux of (anti-)electron and (anti-)muon neutrinos in a kinematic region relevant to the upcoming DUNE experiment. These factors also introduce various model uncertainties that have not been studied in detail by existing on-axis experiments. This poster will explore the systematic uncertainties in the NuMI flux at ICARUS that arise from uncertainties on hadron interaction cross sections and beamline operation conditions.

Alrahman, Fatima Abd [Houston U.]↗
DOE OSTI2013

Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Density of Mid-sized Kuiper Belt Objects from ALMA Thermal Observations

The densities of mid-sized Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) are a key constraint in understanding the assembly of objects in the outer solar system. These objects are critical for understanding the currently unexplained transition from the smallest KBOs with densities lower than that of water, to the largest objects with significant rock content. Mapping this transition is made difficult by the uncertainties in the diameters of these objects, which maps into an even larger uncertainty in volume and thus density. The substantial collecting area of the Atacama Large Millimeter Array allows significantly more precise measurements of thermal emission from outer solar system objects and could potentially greatly improve the density measurements. Here we use new thermal observations of four objects with satellites to explore the improvements possible with millimeter data. We find that effects due to effective emissivity at millimeter wavelengths make it difficult to use the millimeter data directly to find diameters and thus volumes for these bodies. In addition, we find that when including the effects of model uncertainty, the true uncertainties on the sizes of outer solar system objects measured with radiometry are likely larger than those previously published. Substantial improvement in object sizes will likely require precise occultation measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

A geometric approach to regulator and tracker design for an aerospace plane

The paper presents a nonlinear design approach drawing from singular perturbations, feedback linearization, and variable structure control, that leads to regulators with automatic gain scheduling which exhibit similar dynamic behavior over the entire flight envelope of the aerospace plane. Additionally, design approach provides for a systematic way to counter disturbance effects as well as modeling uncertainties. The unifying feature of the three nonlinear feedback control methodologies is that they all have a geometric interpretation. First, the translational dynamics are decomposed into reduced-order slow and fast dynamics by way of a formal singular perturbation analysis. After feedback linearization the fast dynamics are robustly stabilized via a variable structure control approach. The slow dynamics are stabilized using conventional proportional-integral compensation based on the nominal slow dynamics. A number of sample command and disturbance responses at opposite ends of the flight envelope are presented for a nonlinear aerospace plane model.

Van Buren, Mark A.↗