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At least 793 records · Page 44

Cyber threat assessment of machine learning driven autonomous control systems of nuclear power plants

We report advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber–physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Fluid-Kinetic Coupling: Advanced Discretizations for Simulations on Emerging Heterogeneous Architectures (LDRD FY20-0643)

Plasma physics simulations are vital for a host of Sandia mission concerns, for fundamental science, and for clean energy in the form of fusion power. Sandia's most mature plasma physics simulation capabilities come in the form of particle-in-cell (PIC) models and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models. MHD models for a plasma work well in denser plasma regimes when there is enough material that the plasma approximates a fluid. PIC models, on the other hand, work well in lower-density regimes, in which there is not too much to simulate; error in PIC scales as the square root of the number of particles, making high-accuracy simulations expensive. Real-world applications, however, almost always involve a transition region between the high-density regimes where MHD is appropriate, and the low-density regimes for PIC. In such a transition region, a direct discretization of Vlasov is appropriate. Such discretizations come with their own computational costs, however; the phase-space mesh for Vlasov can involve up to six dimensions (seven if time is included), and to apply appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions in velocity space requires meshing a substantial padding region to ensure that the distribution remains sufficiently close to zero at the velocity boundaries. Moreover, for collisional plasmas, the right-hand side of the Vlasov equation is a collision operator, which is non-local in velocity space, and which may dominate the cost of the Vlasov solver. The present LDRD project endeavors to develop modern, foundational tools for the development of continuum-kinetic Vlasov solvers, using the discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) methodology, for discretization of Vlasov, and machine-learning (ML) models to enable efficient evaluation of collision operators. DPG affords several key advantages. First, it has a built-in, robust error indicator, allowing us to adapt the mesh in a very natural way, enabling a coarse velocity-space mesh near the homogeneous boundaries, and a fine mesh where the solution has fine features. Second, it is an inherently high-order, high-intensity method, requiring extra local computations to determine so-called optimal test functions, which makes it particularly suited to modern hardware in which floating-point throughput is increasing at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. Finally, DPG is a residual-minimizing method, which enables high-accuracy computation: in typical cases, the method delivers something very close to the $L^2$ projection of the exact solution. Meanwhile, the ML-based collision model we adopt affords a cost structure that scales as the square root of a standard direct evaluation. Moreover, we design our model to conserve mass, momentum, and energy by construction, and our approach to training is highly flexible, in that it can incorporate not only synthetic data from direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) codes, but also experimental data. We have developed two DPG formulations for Vlasov-Poisson: a time-marching, backward-Euler discretization and a space-time discretization. We have conducted a number of numerical experiments to verify the approach in a 1D1V setting. In this report, we detail these formulations and experiments. We also summarize some new theoretical results developed as part of this project (published as papers previously): some new analysis of DPG for the convection-reaction problem (of which the Vlasov equation is an instance), a new exponential integrator for DPG, and some numerical exploration of various DPG-based time-marching approaches to the heat equation. As part of this work, we have contributed extensively to the Camellia open-source library; we also describe the new capabilities and their usage. We have also developed a well-documented methodology for single-species collision operators, which we applied to argon and demonstrated with numerical experiments. We summarize those results here, as well as describing at a high level a design extending the methodology to multi-species operators. We have released a new open-source library, MLC, under a BSD license; we include a summary of its capabilities as well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On the Feasibility of Using Reduced-Precision Tensor Core Operations for Graph Analytics

Today’s data-driven analytics and machine learning workload have been largely driven by the General-PurposeGraphics Processing Units (GPGPUs). To accelerate dense matrix multiplications on the GPUs, Tensor Core Units (TCUs) have been introduced in recent years. In this paper, we study linear-algebra-based and vertex-centric algorithms for various graph kernels on the GPUs with an objective of applying this new hardware feature to graph applications. We identify the potential stages in these graph kernels that can be executed on the Tensor Core Units. In particular, we leverage the reformulation of the reduction and scan operations in terms of matrix multiplication [1]on the TCUs. We demonstrate that executing these operations on the TCUs, available inside different graph kernels, can assist in establishing an end-to-end pipeline on the GPGPUs without depending on hand-tuned external libraries and still can deliver comparable performance for various graph analytics.

Graph algorithms, GPU computing↗

Devices and methods for increasing the speed or power efficiency of a computer when performing machine learning using spiking neural networks

A method for increasing a speed and efficiency of a computer when performing machine learning using spiking neural networks. The method includes computer-implemented operations; that is, operations that are solely executed on a computer. The method includes receiving, in a spiking neural network, a plurality of input values upon which a machine learning algorithm is based. The method also includes correlating, for each input value, a corresponding response speed of a corresponding neuron to a corresponding equivalence relationship between the input value to a corresponding latency of the corresponding neuron. Neurons that trigger faster than other neurons represent close relationships between input values and neuron latencies. Latencies of the neurons represent data points used in performing the machine learning. A plurality of equivalence relationships are formed as a result of correlating. The method includes performing the machine learning using the plurality of equivalence relationships.

Vineyard, Craig Michael↗

Physics-informed Deep Reinforcement Learning-based Control in Power systems

Incorporating physics information into the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) process is a promising approach for addressing the challenges faced in learning-based control design problems for physical systems. Power grid dynamics, being a physical system, adheres to specific physical laws, constraints, as well as operational and control rules. Therefore, consideration of such physics-based law improves the learning process drastically. In general, traditional grid control schemes rely on rule-based mechanisms that cannot adapt to changing operating conditions. To improve the adaptability and computation time, recent research has seen a surge of DRL-based applications in power grid control. A generic DRL-based control design imposes the system performance requirements through the design of reward functions. In some cases, some of the important physics information is injected through this reward function. However, due to the complex dynamics and large state-action space, learning an optimal DRL policy often becomes challenging. Inspired by the latest developments in general machine learning (ML) research, power system researchers have been investigating more direct ways of incorporating physics knowledge into DRL training. This chapter specifically focuses on these aspects of physics-informed DRL designs in grid control. It discusses the significance, applications, research gaps, and open problems that need to be addressed in future research.

artificial intelligence, machine learning↗

Need for an Independent Monitoring of Nuclear Waste Repository: Lessons from WIPP Experience - 18130

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is the only operating deep geological repository for the permanent disposal of defense transuranic (TRU) waste in the world. The facility recently resumed waste disposal operations after recovering from a February 2014 accident involving a radiological release from a waste container in the WIPP underground. WIPP had been a DOE success story, operating nearly 15 years with no significant incidents or accidents. Many factors contributed to this success, one of the most important being the overwhelming support exhibited by the local community and the local elected officials. One component of the broad public acceptance by the citizens of Southeast New Mexico has been the concept of independent, third party monitoring of environmental effluents at the site. Independent environmental monitoring ensures a role for the local community in ongoing evaluation of the safety and performance of the site. At WIPP this has been achieved through an independent environmental monitoring program operated by the Carlsbad Environmental Monitoring and Research Center (CEMRC). The CEMRC has been conducting independent environmental monitoring activities on and around the WIPP site since 1991 and makes the results of monitoring activities available and easily accessible to members the general public. The public's free and open access to this data and their direct participation in the CEMRC's whole body counting program provides transparency, which is key to maintaining public trust and confidence. The circumstances following the 2014 radiological release event at WIPP reinforced the value of independent environmental monitoring in order to maintain the high level of transparency necessary for long term local acceptance and support for nuclear facilities. Following what was a minor radiological release event, there were understandably fearful reactions from a number of citizens residing in Carlsbad and the nearby communities of Hobbs, Loving, and Artesia. CEMRC's independent environmental monitoring program and their early public engagement proved invaluable in providing timely and accurate environmental data to local community leaders and members of the general public. The data, and open communication from CEMRC, helped reassure citizens in Carlsbad and the surrounding area that the release was extremely low and the extent was very limited. CEMRC further communicated that the probability of any environmental or health impacts from the release was extremely low. It is unlikely the local community would have placed the same level of trust in similar assurances of safety coming from DOE or other State and Federal regulators. The CEMRC's performance in the days following the release meant the local community had access to independent monitoring data and an independent voice in the dialogue with DOE and state officials that shaped the recovery and eventual re-opening of the WIPP facility. The WIPP radiological release event yielded a plethora of lessons learned that will frame the next phase of operational, oversight, and emergency planning surrounding the facility. In this presentation we will be discussing the value and viability of federally-funded, university-housed independent monitoring programs in maintaining trust of state officials and the local communities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Bi-Level Adaptive Storage Expansion Strategy for Microgrids Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Battery energy storage (BES) is a versatile resource for the secure and economic operation of microgrids (MGs). Prevailing stochastic optimization-based approaches for BES expansion planning for MGs are computationally complicated. This work proposes a data-driven bi-level multi-period BES expansion planning framework to determine the siting, sizing, and timing of BES installations. The proposed planning framework unifies deep reinforcement learning (DRL) and linear programming, thereby decoupling the determinations for the integer and continuous decision variables in two time scales, respectively. In the upper level, a rainbow DRL agent with quantile regression is trained to provide dynamic planning policies to accommodate stochastic renewable energy resources (RESs), load, and battery price changes efficiently. Further, the lower level computes the optimal operation of MGs with frequency constraints to hedge the islanding contingency. The two levels communicate with one another by exchanging storage configuration and operating expenses in order to accomplish the shared goal of minimizing investment and operation costs. Comparative case studies on an MG are carried out to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed DRL-based solution to the mixed-integer linear programming counterpart on efficiency, scalability, and adaptability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A machine learning approach for particle accelerator errant beam prediction using spatial phase deviation

Particle accelerators are extremely complex systems that are expected to operate on high availability. Predicting impending failures only by utilizing data collected from diagnostic equipment already on board can help operators to avoid installing expensive sensors, unscheduled downtime and associated costs. For this purpose we explore the predictive power of Machine Learning algorithms to detect faulty beams prior to the failure. In this study, we propose a Machine Learning approach to model mapping from a pair of sensors located across the accelerator. While the model is trained to represent normal operation, we evaluate the predictive performance on known faulty beam pulses. We also investigate the model performance on unseen data through k-fold cross-validation. Then we recap the analysis with a neural architecture search and hyperparameter optimization study to fine tune our initial model. In conclusion, this paper will also introduce a sustainable framework that can standardize Machine Learning workflow applied to particle accelerators.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗

Deploying E3’s RESERVE Tool to Enable Advanced Operation of Clean Grids

Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) developed an open-source machine learning model, RESERVE, for deriving ancillary services timeseries in deeply decarbonized electricity grids. E3 used a bespoke PLEXOS production simulation model of the California Independent System Operator’s (CAISO) balancing area to validate RESERVE’s ability to enable production cost, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and renewable energy curtailment savings. These savings were modeled by comparing PLEXOS cases with RESERVE’s outputs to PLEXOS cases with CAISO’s incumbent reserve product in the Western Energy Imbalance Market (EIM)’s 15-minute market. E3 also tested cases with solar operating flexibly to provide reserves. E3 found that, in a 2030 modeling year, using RESERVE and flexible solar enabled significant production cost, GHG and curtailment savings versus the incumbent CAISO method in cases with low penetrations of lithium-ion batteries. However, with the full 14 gigawatts (about 30% of peak CAISO demand) of 4-hour lithium-ion batteries that are expected to be installed by 2030, these savings approach zero due to batteries saturating ancillary services markets. E3 also found significant savings under a 2019 benchmarking year.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Technology Integration to Gain Commercial Efficiency for the Urban Goods Delivery System, Meet Future Demand for City Passenger and Delivery Load/Unload Spaces, and Reduce Energy Consumption

This three-year project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office has the potential to radically improve the urban freight system in ways that help both the public and private sectors. Working from 2018-2021, project researchers at the University of Washington’s Urban Freight Lab and collaborators at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have produced key data, tested technologies in complex urban settings, developed a prototype parking availability app, and helped close major knowledge gaps. All the fruits of this project can be harnessed to help cities better understand, support and actively manage truck load/unload operations and their urban freight transport infrastructure. Project learnings and tools can be used to help make goods delivery firms more efficient by reducing miles traveled and the time it takes to complete deliveries, benefitting businesses and residents who rely on the urban freight system for supplies of goods. And, ultimately, these project learnings and tools can be used to make cities more livable by minimizing wasted travel, which, in turn, contributes to reductions in fuel consumption and emissions. Cities today are challenged to effectively and efficiently manage their infrastructure to absorb the impacts of ever-increasing e-commerce-fueled delivery demand. All delivery trucks need to park somewhere to unload and load. Yet today’s delivery drivers have no visibility on available parking until they arrive at a site, which may be full. That means they can wind up cruising for parking, which wastes time and fuel and contributes to congestion. Once drivers do find parking, the faster they can unload at the spot, the faster they free up space for other drivers, helping others avoid circling for parking. This makes the parking space—and thus the greater load/unload network—more productive. To this end, the research team successfully met the project’s three goals, developing and piloting strategies and technologies to: 1. Reduce parking-seeking behavior in the study area by 20%; 2. Reduce parcel truck dwell time (the time a truck spends in a spot to load/unload) in the study area by 30%; 3. Increase curb space, alley space and private loading bay occupancy rates in the study area. The research team met these goals by creating and piloting on Seattle streets OpenPark, a first-of-its-kind real-time and forecasting curb parking app customized for commercial delivery drivers—giving drivers the “missing link” in their commonly used routing tools that tell them how best to get to delivery locations, but not what parking is available to use when they get there. Installing in-ground sensors on commercial vehicle load zones (CVLZs) and passenger load zones (PLZs) in the 10-block study area in Seattle’s downtown neighbourhood of Belltown let researchers glean real-time curb parking data. The research team also met project goals by piloting three parcel lockers in public and private spaces open to any delivery carrier, creating a consolidated delivery hub that lets drivers complete deliveries faster and spend less time parked. Researchers collected and analysed data to produce the first empirical, robust, statistically significant results as to the impact of the lockers, and app, on on-the-ground operations. In addition to collecting and analyzing sensor and other real-time and historical data, researchers rode along with delivery drivers to confirm real-world routing and parking behavior. Researchers also surveyed building managers on their private loading bay operations to understand how to boost usage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated machine learning-molecular dynamics framework for electrolyte property prediction

Electrochemical stability windows determine the operating range of battery electrolytes, yet accurate prediction remains challenging because stability emerges from statistical ensembles of local solvation environments rather than single ground-state molecular structures. Traditional density functional theory calculations on energy-minimized clusters cannot capture the thermal variations in local coordination environments and geometries that govern decomposition, while SMILES-based machine learning methods lack explicit representation of three-dimensional solvation structure and ion pairing. Here, we introduce a structure-aware machine learning framework that predicts frontier orbital energies (HOMO and LUMO) directly from molecular dynamics-sampled solvation configurations, achieving sub-0.6 eV accuracy at computational costs 3–4 orders of magnitude lower than first-principles methods. Across twelve representative battery electrolytes, we demonstrate that solvent-separated and contact ion pairs exhibit strong size- and local chemistry dependent electronic stability, with variations in coordination shifts of HOMO or LUMO level by 2–3 eV, and that extended solvation structure and partially desolvated environment further modulate stability by up to 3 eV. By encoding the statistical nature of electrochemical failure through ensemble sampling of explicit solvation geometries, our approach enables high-throughput screening and rational design of next-generation battery electrolytes with mechanistic understanding of structure–property relationships.

Energy - Storage↗

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Technology for Predictive Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can help simplify complex problems, such as diagnosing equipment degradation, to enable more effective decision-making. Benefits will be felt not only within existing analog and digital instrumentation and control, but also work processes, the integration of people with technology, and most importantly, the business case. Together, these hold promise to make nuclear power more efficient and reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance. While the artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies hold significant promise in the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. This report outlines the those different machine learning adoption barriers (categorized as historical, technical, economic, regulatory, and user) that the industry must overcome to realize the full benefits of artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for long-term economic sustainability. This report also provides solutions for some of these barriers by focusing on improving the explainability of machine learning to encourage trust from the end-user. Trust and explainability are essential to machine learning adoption. This report focuses on research-developed solutions to some of these barriers while analyzing a non-safety-related system, namely the circulating water system. This system frequently experiences waterbox fouling which our models preemptively diagnoses then explains to the operator how those conclusions were reached. This report presents and discusses the inherent trade-off between machine learning performance (in terms of accuracy) and explainability, where highly accurate machine learning methods (such as deep-learning) are the least explainable, and the most explainable methods (such as decision trees) are the least accurate. In addition, explainability of artificial intelligence techniques in terms of transparency and post-hoc metrics are discussed. This report outlines the importance of data novelty and value of new information in evaluating both the explainability and trustworthiness. Novelty detection helps to establish consistency or inconsistency of the new data with respect to the training data. On the other hand, value of information could be a part of the user-centric visualization recommendation system that request additional information to be collected, thereby strengthening the machine learning outcomes. During this project, a copyrighted user-centric visualization that aligns with a human-in-the-loop approach was developed. The user-centric visualization presents different levels of information and can be tailored as per user credentials to gain user confidence. One of the salient features of the user-centric visualization is it presents machine learning methods with explainability metrics. A simplified version of the user-centric visualization was presented to 32 users with varying levels of machine learning expertise. Feedback was solicited to test the hypothesis that the app contained sufficient explainability and that the users would trust the algorithm. Overall, the app was positively received, and the hypothesis was supported. This report discusses the trust-but-verify framework – a potential approach to build user trust artificial intelligence. The framework discusses trust from the human level to artificial intelligence level. The fundamental premise of the trust but verify framework is derived from an observation of nuclear safety culture (i.e., nuclear power plant personnel do not rely on a singular source of data to make a decision). This also ties back to the user-centric visualization that presents different levels of information to achieve both explainability and trustworthiness of artificial intelligence. Even so, the adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in the nuclear industry faces additional barriers, namely regulatory and stakeholder readiness. To overcome these challenges, new solutions must gain regulatory approval and cater to stakeholder needs. The Nuclear Regulatory Committee has a 5-year strategic plan which prepares them for reviewing artificial intelligence technologies in licensee submissions. Early and frequent engagement with the regulator is encouraged. Additionally, artificial intelligence solutions should incorporate human-in-the-loop considerations and offer explainability. Stakeholders must prepare by hiring or training staff to adapt to advancing technology in everyday plant tasks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Physics-informed neural network with transfer learning (TL-PINN) based on domain similarity measure for prediction of nuclear reactor transients

Nuclear reactor safety and efficiency can be enhanced through the development of accurate and fast methods for prediction of reactor transient (RT) states. Physics informed neural networks (PINNs) leverage deep learning methods to provide an alternative approach to RT modeling. Applications of PINNs in monitoring of RTs for operator support requires near real-time model performance. However, as with all machine learning models, development of a PINN involves time-consuming model training. Here, we show that a transfer learning (TL-PINN) approach achieves significant performance gain, as measured by reduction of the number of iterations for model training. Using point kinetic equations (PKEs) model with six neutron precursor groups, constructed with experimental parameters of the Purdue University Reactor One (PUR-1) research reactor, we generated different RTs with experimentally relevant range of variables. The RTs were characterized using Hausdorff and Fréchet distance. We have demonstrated that pre-training TL-PINN on one RT results in up to two orders of magnitude acceleration in prediction of a different RT. The mean error for conventional PINN and TL-PINN models prediction of neutron densities is smaller than 1%. We have developed a correlation between TL-PINN performance acceleration and similarity measure of RTs, which can be used as a guide for application of TL-PINNs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Two-Stage Deep Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Voltage Regulation and Peak Load Management

The growing integration of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) in distribution systems could result in adverse effects during grid operation. This paper develops a two-agent soft actor critic-based deep reinforcement learning (SAC-DRL) solution to simultaneously control PV inverters and battery energy storage systems for voltage regulation and peak demand reduction. The novel two-stage framework, featured with two different control agents, is applied for daytime and nighttime operations to enhance control performance. Comparison results with other control methods on a real feeder in Western Colorado demonstrate that the proposed method can provide advanced voltage regulation with modest active power curtailment and reduce peak load demand from feeder's head.

deep reinforcement learning↗

Estimation of the Surface Fluxes for Heat and Momentum in Unstable Conditions with Machine Learning and Similarity Approaches for the LAFE Data Set

Abstract Measurements of three flux towers operated during the land atmosphere feedback experiment (LAFE) are used to investigate relationships between surface fluxes and variables of the land–atmosphere system. We study these relations by means of two machine learning (ML) techniques: multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). We compare their flux derivation performance with Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and a similarity relationship using the bulk Richardson number (BRN). The ML approaches outperform MOST and BRN. Best agreement with the observations is achieved for the friction velocity. For the sensible heat flux and even more so for the latent heat flux, MOST and BRN deviate from the observations while MLP and XGB yield more accurate predictions. Using MOST and BRN for latent heat flux, the root mean square errors (RMSE) are 107 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 and 121 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 , respectively, as well as the intercepts of the regression lines are $$\approx 110$$ ≈ 110 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 . For the ML methods, the RMSEs reduce to 31 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for MLP and 33 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for XGB as well as the intercepts to just 4 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for MLP and $$-1$$ - 1 Wm $$^{-2}$$ - 2 for XGB with slopes of the regression lines close to 1, respectively. These results indicate significant deficiencies of MOST and BRN, particularly for the derivation of the latent heat flux. In fact, in contrast to the established theories, feature importance weighting demonstrates that the ML methods base their improved derivations on net radiation, the incoming and outgoing shortwave radiations, the air temperature gradient, and the available water contents, but not on the water vapor gradient. The results imply that further studies of surface fluxes and other turbulent variables with ML techniques provide great promise for deriving advanced flux parameterizations and their implementation in land–atmosphere system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗