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NASA NTRS1994

Probability techniques for reliability analysis of composite materials

Traditional design approaches for composite materials have employed deterministic criteria for failure analysis. New approaches are required to predict the reliability of composite structures since strengths and stresses may be random variables. This report will examine and compare methods used to evaluate the reliability of composite laminae. The two types of methods that will be evaluated are fast probability integration (FPI) methods and Monte Carlo methods. In these methods, reliability is formulated as the probability that an explicit function of random variables is less than a given constant. Using failure criteria developed for composite materials, a function of design variables can be generated which defines a 'failure surface' in probability space. A number of methods are available to evaluate the integration over the probability space bounded by this surface; this integration delivers the required reliability. The methods which will be evaluated are: the first order, second moment FPI methods; second order, second moment FPI methods; the simple Monte Carlo; and an advanced Monte Carlo technique which utilizes importance sampling. The methods are compared for accuracy, efficiency, and for the conservativism of the reliability estimation. The methodology involved in determining the sensitivity of the reliability estimate to the design variables (strength distributions) and importance factors is also presented.

Wetherhold, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Comparison of modal test methods on the Voyager payload

A comparison of the performance of modern modal data analysis methods on test data from the Voyager Jupiter/Saturn payload is presented. Four different test/data-analysis combinations are compared - multiple-point sine excitation tests, single-point random-excitation tests using two different techniques of manipulating Fourier transform data, and a time-domain method for analyzing random data. Results indicate that all four methods can give comparable results. Of the four, the time-domain approach detects more modes in the test data and, at the same time, shows the greatest promise for reducing the time and cost of modal testing.

Hanks, B. R.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Assessment of cardiac single-photon emission computed tomography performance using a scanning linear observer

Purpose: Single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is widely used to detect myocardial ischemia and myocardial infarction. It is important to assess and compare different SPECT system designs in order to achieve the highest detectability of cardiac defects. Methods: Whitaker et al.'s study ['Estimating random signal parameters from noisy images with nuisance parameters: linear and scanning-linear methods,' Opt. Express 16(11), 8150-8173 (2008)] on the scanning linear observer (SLO) shows that the SLO can be used to estimate the location and size of signals. One major advantage of the SLO is that it can be used with projection data rather than with reconstruction data. Thus, this observer model assesses the overall hardware performance independent of any reconstruction algorithm. In addition, the computation time of image quality studies is significantly reduced. In this study, three systems based on the design of the GE cadmium zinc telluride-based dedicated cardiac SPECT camera Discovery 530c were assessed. This design, which is officially named the Alcyone Technology: Discovery NM 530c, was commercialized in August, 2009. The three systems, GE27, GE19, and GE13, contain 27, 19, and 13 detectors, respectively. Clinically, a human heart can be virtually segmented into three coronary artery territories: the left-anterior descending artery, left-circumflex artery, and right coronary artery. One of the most important functions of a cardiac SPECT system is to produce images from which a radiologist can accurately predict in which territory the defect exists [http://www.asnc.org/media/PDFs/PPReporting081511.pdf, Guideline from American Society of Nuclear Cardiology]. A good estimation of the extent of the defect from the projection images is also very helpful for determining the seriousness of the myocardial ischemia. In this study, both the location and extent of defects were estimated by the SLO, and the system performance was assessed by localization receiver operating characteristic (LROC) [P. Khurd and G. Gindi, 'Decision strategies maximizing the area under the LROC curve,' Proc. SPIE 5749, 150-161 (2005)] or estimation receiver operating characteristic (EROC) [E. Clarkson, 'Estimation receiver operating characteristic curve and ideal observers for combined detection/estimation tasks,' J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 24, B91-B98 (2007)] curves. Results: The area under the LROC/EROC curve (AULC/AUEC) and the true positive fraction (TPF) at a specific false positive fraction (FPF) can be treated as the figures of merit. For radii estimation with a 1 mm tolerance, the AUEC values of the GE27, GE19, and GE13 systems are 0.8545, 0.8488, and 0.8329, and the TPF at FPF = 5% are 77.1%, 76.46%, and 73.55%, respectively. The assessment of all three systems revealed that the GE19 system yields estimated information and cardiac defect detectability very close to those of the GE27 system while using eight fewer detectors. Thus, 30% of the expensive detector units can be removed with confidence. Conclusions: As the results show, a combination of the SLO and LROC/EROC curves can determine the configuration that yields the most relevant estimation/detection information. Thus, this is a useful method for assessing cardiac SPECT systems.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fast Extraction and Characterization of Fundamental Frequency Events from a Large PMU Dataset using Big Data Analytics

A novel method for fast extraction of fundamental frequency events (FFE) based on measurements of frequency and rate of change of frequency by Phasor Measurement Units (PMU) is introduced. The method is designed to work with exceptionally large historical PMU datasets. Statistical analysis was used to extract the features and train Random Forest and Catboost classifiers. The method is capable of fast extraction of FFE from a historical dataset containing measurements from hundreds of PMUs captured over multiple years. The reported accuracy of the best algorithm for classification expressed as Area Under the receiver operating Characteristic curve reaches 0.98, which was obtained in out-of-sample evaluations on 109 system-wide events over 2 years observed at 43 PMUs. Then Minimum Volume Enclosing Ellipsoid Algorithm was used to further analyze the events. 93.72% events were correctly characterized, where average duration of the event as seen by the PMU was 9.93 sec.

Baembitov, Rashid↗

NASA NTRS1994

Numerical and experimental analyses of the radiant heat flux produced by quartz heating systems

A method is developed for predicting the radiant heat flux distribution produced by tungsten filament, tubular fused-quartz envelope heating systems with reflectors. The method is an application of Monte Carlo simulation, which takes the form of a random walk or ray tracing scheme. The method is applied to four systems of increasing complexity, including a single lamp without a reflector, a single lamp with a Hat reflector, a single lamp with a parabolic reflector, and up to six lamps in a six-lamp contoured-reflector heating unit. The application of the Monte Carlo method to the simulation of the thermal radiation generated by these systems is discussed. The procedures for numerical implementation are also presented. Experiments were conducted to study these quartz heating systems and to acquire measurements of the corresponding empirical heat flux distributions for correlation with analysis. The experiments were conducted such that several complicating factors could be isolated and studied sequentially. Comparisons of the experimental results with analysis are presented and discussed. Good agreement between the experimental and simulated results was obtained in all cases. This study shows that this method can be used to analyze very complicated quartz heating systems and can account for factors such as spectral properties, specular reflection from curved surfaces, source enhancement due to reflectors and/or adjacent sources, and interaction with a participating medium in a straightforward manner.

Turner, Travis L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Redshift data and statistical inference

Frequency histograms and the 'power spectrum analysis' (PSA) method, the latter developed by Yu & Peebles (1969), have been widely employed as techniques for establishing the existence of periodicities. We provide a formal analysis of these two classes of methods, including controlled numerical experiments, to better understand their proper use and application. In particular, we note that typical published applications of frequency histograms commonly employ far greater numbers of class intervals or bins than is advisable by statistical theory sometimes giving rise to the appearance of spurious patterns. The PSA method generates a sequence of random numbers from observational data which, it is claimed, is exponentially distributed with unit mean and variance, essentially independent of the distribution of the original data. We show that the derived random processes is nonstationary and produces a small but systematic bias in the usual estimate of the mean and variance. Although the derived variable may be reasonably described by an exponential distribution, the tail of the distribution is far removed from that of an exponential, thereby rendering statistical inference and confidence testing based on the tail of the distribution completely unreliable. Finally, we examine a number of astronomical examples wherein these methods have been used giving rise to widespread acceptance of statistically unconfirmed conclusions.

Newman, William I.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Extremely small test cell structure for resistive random access memory element with removable bottom electrode

We established a method of preparing an extremely small memory cell by fabricating a resistive random access memory (ReRAM) structure on the tip of a cantilever of an atomic force microscope. This structure has the high robustness against the drift of the cantilever, and the effective cell size was estimated to be less than 10 nm in diameter due to the electric field concentration at the tip of the cantilever, which was confirmed using electric field simulation. The proposed structure, which has a removable bottom electrode, enables not only the preparation of a tiny ReRAM structure but also the performance of unique experiments, by making the most of its high robustness against the drift of the cantilever.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Classification of Cheatgrass Invasion in the Western United States Using Biophysical and Remote Sensing Data

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) invasion is driving an emerging cycle of increased fire frequency and irreversible loss of wildlife habitat in the western US. Yet, detailed spatial information about its occurrence is still lacking for much of its presumably invaded range. Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated success for remote sensing applications but is less tested on more challenging tasks like identifying biological invasions using sub-pixel phenomena. We compare two DL architectures and the more conventional Random Forest and Logistic Regression methods to improve upon a previous effort to map cheatgrass occurrence at >2% canopy cover. High-dimensional sets of biophysical, MODIS, and Landsat-7 ETM+ predictor variables are also compared to evaluate different multi-modal data strategies. All model configurations improved results relative to the case study and accuracy generally improved by combining data from both sensors with biophysical data. Cheatgrass occurrence is mapped at 30 m ground sample distance (GSD) with an estimated 78.1% accuracy, compared to 250-m GSD and 71% map accuracy in the case study. Furthermore, DL is shown to be competitive with well-established machine learning methods in a limited data regime, suggesting it can be an effective tool for mapping biological invasions and more broadly for multi-modal remote sensing applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1968

Concepts for a theoretical and experimental study of lifting rotor random loads and vibrations, Phase 2

A comparison with NASA conducted simulator studies has shown that the approximate digital method for computing rotor blade flapping responses to random inputs, tentatively suggested in Phase I Report, gives with increasing rotor advance ratio the wrong trend. Consequently, three alternative methods of solution have been considered and are described: (1) an approximate method based on the functional relation between input and output double frequency spectra, (2) a numerical method based on the system responses to deterministic inputs and (3) a perturbation approach. Among these the perturbation method requires the least amount of computation and has been developed in two forms - the first form to obtain the response correlation function and the second for the time averaged spectra of flapping oscillations.

Hohenemser, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Ultrasonic correlator versus signal averager as a signal to noise enhancement instrument

Ultrasonic inspection of thick and attenuating materials is hampered by the reduce amplitudes of the propagated waves to a degree that the noise is too high to enable meaningful interpretation of the data. In order to overcome the low signal to noise ratio (S/N), a correlation technique has been developed. In this method, a continuous pseudo-random pattern generated digitally is transmitted and detected by piezoelectric transducers. A correlation is performed in the instrument between the received signal and a variable delayed image of the transmitted one. The result is shown to be proportional to the impulse response of the investigated material, analogous to a signal received from a pulsed system, with an improved S/N ratio. The degree of S/N enhancement depends on the sweep rate. The correlator is described, and it is compared to the method of enhancing S/N ratio by averaging the signals. The similarities and differences between the two are highlighted and the potential advantage of the correlator system is explained.

Kishoni, Doron↗

NASA NTRS1989

Ultrasonic correlator versus signal averager as a signal to noise enhancement instrument

Ultrasonic inspection of thick and attenuating materials is hampered by the reduced amplitudes of the propagated waves to a degree that the noise is too high to enable meaningful interpretation of the data. In order to overcome the low Signal to Noise (S/N) ratio, a correlation technique has been developed. In this method, a continuous pseudo-random pattern generated digitally is transmitted and detected by piezoelectric transducers. A correlation is performed in the instrument between the received signal and a variable delayed image of the transmitted one. The result is shown to be proportional to the impulse response of the investigated material, analogous to a signal received from a pulsed system, with an improved S/N ratio. The degree of S/N enhancement depends on the sweep rate. This paper describes the correlator, and compares it to the method of enhancing S/N ratio by averaging the signals. The similarities and differences between the two are highlighted and the potential advantage of the correlator system is explained.

Kishoni, Doron↗

NASA NTRS1991

Massively parallel algorithms for trace-driven cache simulations

Trace driven cache simulation is central to computer design. A trace is a very long sequence of reference lines from main memory. At the t(exp th) instant, reference x sub t is hashed into a set of cache locations, the contents of which are then compared with x sub t. If at the t sup th instant x sub t is not present in the cache, then it is said to be a miss, and is loaded into the cache set, possibly forcing the replacement of some other memory line, and making x sub t present for the (t+1) sup st instant. The problem of parallel simulation of a subtrace of N references directed to a C line cache set is considered, with the aim of determining which references are misses and related statistics. A simulation method is presented for the Least Recently Used (LRU) policy, which regradless of the set size C runs in time O(log N) using N processors on the exclusive read, exclusive write (EREW) parallel model. A simpler LRU simulation algorithm is given that runs in O(C log N) time using N/log N processors. Timings are presented of the second algorithm's implementation on the MasPar MP-1, a machine with 16384 processors. A broad class of reference based line replacement policies are considered, which includes LRU as well as the Least Frequently Used and Random replacement policies. A simulation method is presented for any such policy that on any trace of length N directed to a C line set runs in the O(C log N) time with high probability using N processors on the EREW model. The algorithms are simple, have very little space overhead, and are well suited for SIMD implementation.

Nicol, David M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spinbox: tools for many-body quantum systems in a Monte Carlo context

Spinbox is a piece of software that facilitates quantum mechanical calculations relevant to Monte Carlo simulation of atomic nuclei. At the front lines of research on the nuclear many-body problem are a large number of supercomputer-scale simulation codes. These codes produce valuable results but can be hard to understand, especially for those without intimate knowledge of the relevant theoretical methods. Thus, tools that fill pedagogical roles are extremely valuable. Spinbox makes it easy for one to replicate and analyze the computational processes relevant to a Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation that may be difficult to understand/debug/analyze due to the scale of the corresponding simulation software. Spinbox is written in Python using other state-of-the-art Python modules for numerical calculations. While a number of Python libraries exist that are suited to general quantum many-body calculations, the motivation of Spinbox is quite particular. In Diffusion Monte Carlo methods (DMC, GFMC, AFDMC), the central calculation is the imaginary-time propagation of individual samples of the many-body wavefunction. Although quantum wavefunctions generally must be described by a probability distribution over a basis, DMC imbues particles (within one sample) with classical spatial coordinates. This method is unusual, so other Python packages are typically not set up to do this easily. Furthermore, the software has built-in options for nuclear systems assuming isospin symmetry, which can be set up with other libraries but is a nontrivial process to do so. Features: - numerical representation of samples of the many-body wavefunctions, including tensor-product states (used in AFDMC) - numerical representation of many-body operators, including tensor-product operators: general, spin, imaginary-time propagation, etc. - the correct associated arithmetic and algebra, implemented as class methods - classes for representing realistic nuclear two- and three-body Hamiltonians (e.g. Argonne V18, Illinois NNN) - large-scale parallel integration over random variables, crucial for the AFDMC method My goal is to make this package open source so that anyone may use it and contribute to it, particularly other researchers doing AFDMC calculations

Fox, Jordan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interpreting High-resolution Spectroscopy of Exoplanets using Cross-correlations and Supervised Machine Learning

We present a new method for performing atmospheric retrieval on ground-based, high-resolution data of exoplanets. Our method combines cross-correlation functions with a random forest, a supervised machine-learning technique, to overcome challenges associated with high-resolution data. A series of cross-correlation functions are concatenated to give a “CCF-sequence” for each model atmosphere, which reduces the dimensionality by a factor of ∼100. The random forest, trained on our grid of ∼65,000 models, provides a likelihood-free method of retrieval. The precomputed grid spans 31 values of both temperature and metallicity, and incorporates a realistic noise model. We apply our method to HARPS-N observations of the ultra-hot Jupiter KELT-9b and obtain a metallicity consistent with solar (logM = − 0.2 ± 0.2). Our retrieved transit chord temperature (T=6000{sub −200}{sup +0}K) is unreliable as strong ion lines lie outside of the extent of the training set, which we interpret as being indicative of missing physics in our atmospheric model. We compare our method to traditional nested sampling, as well as other machine-learning techniques, such as Bayesian neural networks. We demonstrate that the likelihood-free aspect of the random forest makes it more robust than nested sampling to different error distributions, and that the Bayesian neural network we tested is unable to reproduce complex posteriors. We also address the claim in Cobb et al. 2019 that our random forest retrieval technique can be overconfident but incorrect. We show that this is an artifact of the training set, rather than of the machine-learning method, and that the posteriors agree with those obtained using nested sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Evaluation of Rock Powdering Methods to Obtain Fine-grained Samples for CHEMIN, a Combined XRD/XRF Instrument

A miniature XRD/XRF (X-ray diffraction / X-ray fluorescence) instrument, CHEMIN, is currently being developed for definitive mineralogic analysis of soils and rocks on Mars. One of the technical issues that must be addressed to enable remote XRD analysis is how best to obtain a representative sample powder for analysis. For powder XRD analyses, it is beneficial to have a fine-grained sample to reduce preferred orientation effects and to provide a statistically significant number of crystallites to the X-ray beam. Although a two-dimensional detector as used in the CHEMIN instrument will produce good results even with poorly prepared powder, the quality of the data will improve and the time required for data collection will be reduced if the sample is fine-grained and randomly oriented. A variety of methods have been proposed for XRD sample preparation. Chipera et al. presented grain size distributions and XRD results from powders generated with an Ultrasonic/Sonic Driller/Corer (USDC) currently being developed at JPL. The USDC was shown to be an effective instrument for sampling rock to produce powder suitable for XRD. In this paper, we compare powder prepared using the USDC with powder obtained with a miniaturized rock crusher developed at JPL and with powder obtained with a rotary tungsten carbide bit to powders obtained from a laboratory bench-scale Retsch mill (provides benchmark mineralogical data). These comparisons will allow assessment of the suitability of these methods for analysis by an XRD/XRF instrument such as CHEMIN.

Chipera, S. J.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Online updating of context-aware landmark detectors for prostate localization in daily treatment CT images

Purpose: In image guided radiation therapy, it is crucial to fast and accurately localize the prostate in the daily treatment images. To this end, the authors propose an online update scheme for landmark-guided prostate segmentation, which can fully exploit valuable patient-specific information contained in the previous treatment images and can achieve improved performance in landmark detection and prostate segmentation. Methods: To localize the prostate in the daily treatment images, the authors first automatically detect six anatomical landmarks on the prostate boundary by adopting a context-aware landmark detection method. Specifically, in this method, a two-layer regression forest is trained as a detector for each target landmark. Once all the newly detected landmarks from new treatment images are reviewed or adjusted (if necessary) by clinicians, they are further included into the training pool as new patient-specific information to update all the two-layer regression forests for the next treatment day. As more and more treatment images of the current patient are acquired, the two-layer regression forests can be continually updated by incorporating the patient-specific information into the training procedure. After all target landmarks are detected, a multiatlas random sample consensus (multiatlas RANSAC) method is used to segment the entire prostate by fusing multiple previously segmented prostates of the current patient after they are aligned to the current treatment image. Subsequently, the segmented prostate of the current treatment image is again reviewed (or even adjusted if needed) by clinicians before including it as a new shape example into the prostate shape dataset for helping localize the entire prostate in the next treatment image. Results: The experimental results on 330 images of 24 patients show the effectiveness of the authors’ proposed online update scheme in improving the accuracies of both landmark detection and prostate segmentation. Besides, compared to the other state-of-the-art prostate segmentation methods, the authors’ method achieves the best performance. Conclusions: By appropriate use of valuable patient-specific information contained in the previous treatment images, the authors’ proposed online update scheme can obtain satisfactory results for both landmark detection and prostate segmentation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating disease surveillance strategies for early outbreak detection in contact networks with varying community structure

Disease surveillance systems allow public health agencies to respond to emerging diseases before they become widespread. Developing such systems requires identifying optimal ways to monitor in the context of an epidemic outbreak; this problem is known as sensor selection. Contact networks represent the dynamics of interaction in a population and are used to model how a disease spreads in a population and to explore strategies of sensor selection. We evaluated five sensor selection strategies on their ability to provide an early warning of a COVID-like outbreak in synthetic contact networks encapsulated in four network scenarios. Three of these scenarios assessed different aspects of community structure. The fourth scenario employed a contact network representing the population and interactions of 6.8 million people in New York City, constructed from an agent-based simulation using census and transportation data. This scenario exemplifies how sensor selection strategies may perform in a real-world, urban context. Our findings suggest that the choice of the optimal strategy depends heavily on the community structure of the network. Strategies that select highly connected nodes or maximize network coverage are the optimal surveillance strategy for outbreak detection in many network community structures. However, a naive implementation of these strategies may fail to provide an early warning at all—including in the New York City scenario. Moreover, these methods are impractical for real-world use as they require knowledge of the underlying contact network. Instead, a selection strategy that starts with a set of random nodes and then performs a random walk through a chain of neighbors reliably provides early warnings without requiring prior knowledge of the network. We find this method, called “random chain”, to be the most pragmatic for implementation in a real-world disease surveillance context.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

NESSUS/expert and NESSUS/FPI in the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) program

The Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures under Stress (NESSUS) is the primary computer code being developed in the NASA Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project. It consists of four modules NESSUS/EXPERT, NESSUS/FPI, NESSUS/PRE and NESSUS/FEM. This presentation concentrates on EXPERT and FPI. To provide an effective interface between NESSUS and the user, an expert system module called NESSUS/EXPERT is being developed. That system uses the CLIPS artificial intelligence code developed to NASA-JSC. The code is compatible with FORTRAN, the standard language for codes in PSAM. The user interacts with the CLIPS inference engine, which is linked to the knowledge database. The perturbation database generated by NESSUS/FEM and managed in EXPERT is used to develop the so-called response or performance model in the random variables. Two independent probabilistic methods are available in PSAM for the computation of the probabilistic structural response. These are the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) method and Monte Carlo simulation. FPI is classified as an advanced reliability method and has been developed over the past ten years by researchers addressing the reliability of civil engineering structures. Monte Carlo is a well-established technique for computing probabilities by conducting a number of deterministic analyses with specified input distributional information.

Burnside, O. H.↗