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Results for “Reliability Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 793 records · Page 44
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Reliability of a Series Pipe Network

The goal of this NASA-funded research is to advance research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction methods for improved aerospace and aircraft propulsion system components. Reliability methods are used to quantify response uncertainties due to inherent uncertainties in design variables. In this report, several reliability methods are applied to a series pipe network. The observed responses are the head delivered by a main pump and the line head at a desired flow rate. The probability that the flow rate in the line will be less than a specified minimum will be discussed.

Harris, Rodney↗
NASA NTRS2001

Reliability of a Parallel Pipe Network

The goal of this NASA-funded research is to advance research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction methods for improved aerospace and aircraft propulsion system components. Reliability methods are used to quantify response uncertainties due to inherent uncertainties in design variables. In this report, several reliability methods are applied to a parallel pipe network. The observed responses are the head delivered by a main pump and the head values of two parallel lines at certain flow rates. The probability that the flow rates in the lines will be less than their specified minimums will be discussed.

Herrera, Edgar↗
NASA NTRS1986

Effect of design variables, temperature gradients and speed of life and reliability of a rotating disk

A generalized methodology to predict the fatigue life and reliability of a rotating disk such as used for aircraft engine turbines and compressors is advanced. The approach incorporates the computed life of elemental stress volumes to predict system life and reliability. Disk speed and thermal gradients as well as design variables such as disk diameter and thickness and bolt hole size, number and location are considered.

Zaretsky, E. V.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Effect of design variables, temperature gradients, and speed on life and reliability of a rotating disk

A generalized methodology to predict the fatigue life and reliability of a rotating disk such as used for aircraft engine turbines and compressors is advanced. The approach incorporates the computed life of elemental stress volumes to predict system life and reliability. Disk speed and thermal gradients as well as design varibles such as disk diameter and thickness and bolt hole size, number and location are considered.

Zaretsky, E. V.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind Turbine Drivetrain Reliability Assessment and Remaining Useful Life Prediction

This presentation describes a methodology for predicting probability of failure of wind turbine gearbox bearings failed by axial cracking. This methodology was applied to a commercial MW size wind plant and generated results were correlated with actual failures. This work is partnered with WindESCo and funded through DOE's Technology Commercialization Fund.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Expectation vs. Reality: The Sunrise Problem Applied to Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The Sunrise Problem is succinctly stated as a question: “what is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow?” Attempts to answer this seemingly simple question reveal unexpected incongruities between statistical/probabilistic estimates and “real-world” expectations. Rather than being a purely philosophical problem, similar incongruities can be found in reliability and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analyses. These differences between statistical predictions and demonstrated reliability can result in analysis shortcomings that should be addressed and resolved. This presentation will begin by discussing the nature of the Sunrise Problem and how it applies to PRA and reliability. Examples of the Sunrise Problem in a PRA estimate will also be included, along with tips to identify and resolve the shortcomings that result from these anomalous situations.

Sunrise Problem↗
NASA NTRS2016

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.

DeMott, Diana↗
NASA NTRS2017

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules, and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.

DeMott, Diana L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficients for Wind Tunnel Data using a Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network

A fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients is produced using a neural network optimized by a genetic algorithm. Basic aerodynamic coefficients (e.g. lift, drag, pitching moment) are modelled as functions of angle of attack and Mach number. The neural network is first trained on a relatively rich set of data from wind tunnel tests of numerical simulations to learn an overall model. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. A new set of data, which can be relatively sparse, is then supplied to the network to produce a new model consistent with the previous model and the new data. Because the new model interpolates realistically between the sparse test data points, it is suitable for use in piloted simulations. The genetic algorithm is used to choose a neural network architecture to give best results, avoiding over-and under-fitting of the test data.

Rajkumar, T.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Probabilistic reliability assessment and case studies for predicted energy savings in residential buildings

This study aims to (1) investigate the key influential parameters (KIPs) in estimating the uncertainty of energy savings using a residential building energy simulation model and (2) perform uncertainty quantification for energy savings for several different scenarios. The proposed methodology was successfully applied to the calculation of uncertainties associated with residential energy retrofits using two test houses designed for pre- and post-retrofit cases. Uncertainties were determined using basic parameters that might be supplied to an energy model and then reevaluated based on an audit of the KIPs identified, resulting in substantially reduced uncertainty. Of four different scenarios, the most uncertain scenario estimated the annual energy savings from the retrofit would be between 18% and 51% at a 95% confidence level, and the least uncertain scenario estimated the annual savings would be between 26% and 40% at a 95% confidence level. The actual measured annual savings from the two test houses was 28%, which shows an agreement with the uncertainty analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Subtlety of TiO 2 phase stability: Reliability of the density functional theory predictions and persistence of the self-interaction error

TiO 2 is an important material with broad applications that can exist in different phases with dramatically different properties. Theoretical prediction of their polymorph energetics is therefore critical for the material design and for identifying thermodynamically accessible structures. Determining TiO 2 relative phase stabilities remains challenging for first-principles methods, and density functional theory is the only approach available for studying phase stabilities at finite temperatures with acceptable computational efficiency. Here, we show that density functional theory using the recently developed efficient strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) [Sun et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 115, 036402 (2015)] exchange-correlation functional for the first time predicts the phase stability in qualitative agreement with the experimental results at realistic conditions. Further analysis shows that the self-interaction error intrinsic in the density functional persists in the stability prediction. By correcting the self-interaction error through an empirical approach, SCAN predicts the relative stability as well as defect properties in excellent agreement with the experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1988

The solar simulation test of the ITALSAT thermal structural model

The ITALSAT structural/thermal model (STM) was submitted to a solar simulation test in order to verify the spacecraft thermal design and the thermal mathematical model which will be used to predict the on orbit temperatures. The STM was representative of the flight model in terms of configuration, structures, appendages and thermal hardware; dissipating dummy units were used to simulate the electronic units. The test consisted of the main phases: on station (beginning of life), on station (end of life), and transfer orbit. Preliminary results indicate that the test performances were satisfactory. The spacecraft measured temperatures were up to 15 degrees higher than the predicted ones. This imposes a careful correlation analysis in order to have reliable flight temperature predictions.

Giommi, M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Effect of Cyclic Thermal Loads on Fatigue Reliability in Polymer Matrix Composites

Technological solutions that will ensure the economic viability and environmental compatibility of a future High Speed Civil Transport plane are currently being sought. Lighter structural materials for both airframe primary structures and engine structure components are being investigated. We believe that such objectives can be achieved through the use of high-temperature composites as well as other conventional, lighter weight alloys. One of the prime issues for these structural components is assured long-term behavior with a specified reliability. An investigation was conducted to describe a computational simulation methodology for predicting fatigue life, reliability, and probabilistic long-term behavior of polymer matrix composites. A unified time-, stress-, and load-dependent Multi- Factor Interaction Equation (MFIE) model developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center was used to simulate the long-term behavior of polymer matrix composites.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of the Predictive Simulation Capability Element of the Plume Surface Interaction Project

As part of the Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), the development of simulation capability for the prediction of extra-terrestrial Plume Surface Interaction (PSI) environments has been undertaken by the Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC. The GCD PSI Project, planned to be completed over a four year period, contains a Predictive Simulation Capability (PSC) Element focused on creating simulation capability for the reliable and accurate prediction of PSI in Martian (~650 Pa) and Lunar (vacuum) ambient environments. In addition to the PSC Element, the GCD Program also contains a companion Ground Testing Element for development of focused datasets for validation of predictive capability as well as a Flight-focused Instrumentation Element. This paper describes the PSC Element of the PSI Project as well as providing descriptions of recent accomplishments and remaining work. The overall structure of the PSC Element is broken down into four areas of focus. The first area is the Prediction of Plume Flow in low pressure environments. The development approach taken is the augmentation of the existing production-mode computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool Loci/Chem, with targeted extensions necessary to accurately model rarefied conditions found in both Martian and Lunar applications. Production readiness and validation of predictive capability are the major objectives of this task. The second area is the effect of mixed continuum/rarefied flow on crater development and ejecta sheets. A new CFD application, Loci/GGFS (Gas Granular Flow Solver), is being developed which implements an Eulerian/Eulerian two-phase model of gas- and soil-phases in order to simulate the soil erosion, crater formation, and soil ejecta transport in a fully coupled simulation. This task seeks to verify Loci/GGFS is production-ready as well as perform validation studies to determine the degree of predictive capability achieved by Loci/GGFS. The third area is focused on the details and extension of particle phase modeling of soil. In this task, Discrete Element Modeling (DEM) techniques are used to perform direct simulations of complex soil particles under the action of forcing similar to that to be cause by PSI. The simulation results are then used to construct closures to the Eulerian model of the soil phase used by Loci/GGFS. The fourth area is gas-particle interaction modeling. In this task, experiments are being conducted as well as detailed simulation results are being studied to further understand the complexities of gas-particle interactions in dilute, intermediate, and high soil volume fraction regimes. Improved models of particle drag and the particle turbulent kinetic energy (PTKE) resulting from the interaction of gas flows within particle clouds are the objective of this task.

Jeff West↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulating Underexpanded Jets in Martian and Lunar Environments

As part of the Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), the development of simulation capability for the prediction of extra-terrestrial Plume Surface Interaction (PSI) environments has been undertaken by the Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC. The GCD PSI Project, planned to be accomplished over a four year period, contains a Predictive Simulation Capability (PSC) Element focused on creating simulation capability for the reliable and accurate prediction of PSI in Martian (~650 Pa) and Lunar (vacuum) ambient environments. In addition to the PSC Element, the PSI Project also contains a companion Ground Testing Element for development of focused datasets for validation of predictive capability as well as a Flight-focused Instrumentation Element. This paper describes the activities and accomplishments in the past year for the Prediction of Plume Flow in low pressure environments component of the PSI Project. While the Loci/Chem Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) application has been validated and used extensively for simulating launch environments in atmospheric conditions, use of this tool for simulating supersonic plumes at Mars-like ambient pressure requires further validation. CFD simulations of underexpanded jets have been performed using Loci/Chem for Mars-like conditions to predict several metrics for steady laminar, turbulent, and impinging plumes. The CFD results are compared with an experimental data set for low Reynolds number plumes at these conditions in order to evaluate the current capability of the Loci/Chem tool for these types of environments. The CFD validation results to date show reasonable agreement with the experimental data across all of the metrics of interest for the configurations considered. The Loci/Chem-Boltzmann CFD application is a hybrid continuum/rarefied flow solver which extends modeling capabilities to very low pressure environments such as those on the Moon. The Loci/Chem-Boltzmann solver uses a gradient-based continuum breakdown criterion to restrict solution of the computationally expensive Boltzmann equation to only a subset of the domain, while using the Navier-Stokes equations elsewhere. This CFD application is under active development, and current efforts toward establishing production ready capability for evaluating Lunar plume surface interactions are well under way. Initial simulations of an Apollo LEM indicate that several regions of the flow require solving the Boltzmann equations due to extreme rarefaction. Early simulations are promising, indicating reasonable overall computational time for a full 3D human scale lander simulation.

Thomas Shurtz↗