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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of prescribed fire on soil microbial communities in a Southern Appalachian Forest clear-cut

Escalating wildfire frequency and severity, exacerbated by shifting climate patterns, pose significant ecological and economic challenges. Prescribed burns, a common forest management tool, aim to mitigate wildfire risks and protect biodiversity. Nevertheless, understanding the impact of prescribed burns on soil and microbial communities in temperate mixed forests, considering temporal dynamics and slash fuel types, remains crucial. Our study, conducted at the University of Tennessee Forest Resources AgResearch and Education Center in Oak Ridge, TN, employed controlled burns across various treatments, and the findings indicate that low-intensity prescribed burns have none or minimal short-term effects on soil parameters but may alter soil nutrient concentrations, as evidenced by significant changes in porewater acetate, formate, and nitrate concentrations. These burns also induce shifts in microbial community structure and diversity, with Proteobacteria and Acidobacteria increasing significantly post-fire, possibly aiding soil recovery. In contrast, Verrucomicrobia showed a notable decrease over time, and other specific microbial taxa correlated with soil pH, porewater nitrate, ammonium , and phosphate concentrations. Our research contributes to understanding the intricate relationships between prescribed fire, soil dynamics, and microbial responses in temperate mixed forests in the Southern Appalachian Region, which is valuable for informed land management practices in the face of evolving environmental challenges.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2023

One thousand soils for molecular understanding of belowground carbon cycling

While significant progress has been made in understanding global carbon (C) cycling, the mechanisms regulating belowground C fluxes and storage are still uncertain. New molecular technologies have the power to elucidate these processes, yet we have no widespread standardized implementation of molecular techniques. To address this gap, we introduce the Molecular Observation Network (MONet), a decadal vision from the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), to develop a national network for understanding the molecular composition, physical structure, and hydraulic and biological properties of soil and water. These data are essential for advancing the next generation of multiscale Earth systems models. In this paper, we discuss the 1000 Soils Pilot for MONet, including a description of standardized sampling materials and protocols and a use case to highlight the utility of molecular-level and microstructural measurements for assessing the impacts of wildfire on soil. While the 1000 Soils Pilot generated a plethora of data, we focus on assessments of soil organic matter (SOM) chemistry via Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance-mass spectrometry and microstructural properties via X-ray computed tomography to highlight the effects of recent fire history in forested ecosystems on belowground C cycling. We observed decreases in soil respiration, microbial biomass, and potential enzyme activity in soils with high frequency burns. Additionally, the nominal oxidation state of carbon in SOM increased with burn frequency in surface soils. This results in a quantifiable shift in the molecular signature of SOM and shows that wildfire may result in oxidation of SOM and structural changes to soil pore networks that persist into deeper soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of a Prescribed Fire on Air Quality in Central New Mexico

A short-duration but high-impact air quality event occurred on 28 November 2018 along the Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. This fire occurred outside the typical wildfire season, and greatly impacted the air quality in Socorro, NM, and the surroundings. Measurements were taken during the event using an aerosol light scattering technique (integrating nephelometer) and a particulate mass concentration monitor (DustTrak PM optical monitor). The instruments sampled the ambient air during the event on the campus of the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro, New Mexico. The peak values on a 5-min basis of light scattering and the PM mass concentration reached 470 Mm -1 and 270 µg/m 3 , respectively. We examined the meteorological context of the event using local meteorological data and back trajectories using the NOAA HYSPLIT model to determine atmospheric transport and possible sources. Several fires, both prescribed and wildfires, occurred in the region including a prescribed burn at Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge (17 km south-southeast of the receptor site). The data suggest that the prescribed burn at Bosque del Apache was the dominant contributor due to transport evidence and the event’s narrow spatiotemporal extent. The increasing importance of restoring ecosystem function using prescribed fire in wildland fire management will likely lead to more frequent air quality impacts and sets up policy tradeoffs that require a balance between these public goals. This study examines the evidence of the effects of a prescribed fire in a protected wildland area impacting the air quality in a nearby populated area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Emission Source Terms in a Reduced-Order Fire Spread Model—Part 1: Particulate Emissions

A simple, easy-to-evaluate, surrogate model was developed for predicting the particle emission source term in wildfire simulations. In creating this model, we conceptualized wildfire as a series of flamelets, and using this concept of flamelets, we developed a one-dimensional model to represent the structure of these flamelets which then could be used to simulate the evolution of a single flamelet. A previously developed soot model was executed within this flamelet simulation which could produce a particle size distribution. Executing this flamelet simulation 1200 times with varying conditions created a data set of emitted particle size distributions to which simple rational equations could be tuned to predict a particle emission factor, mean particle size, and standard deviation of particle sizes. These surrogate models (the rational equation) were implemented into a reduced-order fire spread model, QUIC-Fire. Using QUIC-Fire, an ensemble of simulations were executed for grassland fires, southeast U.S. conifer forests, and western mountain conifer forests. Resulting emission factors from this ensemble were compared against field data for these fire classes with promising results. Also shown is a predicted averaged resulting particle size distribution with the bulk of particles produced to be on the order of 1 μm in size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Molecular and physical characteristics of aerosol at a remote free troposphere site: implications for atmospheric aging

Aerosol properties are transformed by atmospheric processes during long-range transport and play a key role in the Earth's radiative balance. To understand the molecular and physical characteristics of free tropospheric aerosol, we studied samples collected at the Pico Mountain Observatory in the North Atlantic. The observatory is located in the marine free troposphere at 2225 m above sea level, on Pico Island in the Azores archipelago. The site is ideal for the study of long-range-transported free tropospheric aerosol with minimal local influence. Three aerosol samples with elevated organic carbon concentrations were selected for detailed analysis. FLEXPART retroplumes indicated that two of the samples were influenced by North American wildfire emissions transported in the free troposphere and one by North American outflow mainly transported within the marine boundary layer.Ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry was used to determine the detailed molecular composition of the samples. Thousands of molecular formulas were assigned to each of the individual samples. On average ~60 % of the molecular formulas contained only carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen atoms (CHO), ~30 %contained nitrogen (CHNO), and ~10 % contained sulfur (CHOS). The molecular formula compositions of the two wildfire-influenced aerosol samples transported mainly in the free troposphere had relatively low averageO/C ratios (0.48±0.13 and 0.45±0.11) despite the 7–10 days of transport time according to FLEXPART. In contrast, the molecular composition of the North American outflow transported mainly in the boundary layer had a higher average O/C ratio (0.57±0.17) with 3 days of transport time. To better understand the difference between free tropospheric transport and boundary layer transport, the meteorological conditions along the FLEXPART simulated transport pathways were extracted from the Global Forecast System analysis for the model grids. We used the extracted meteorological conditions and the observed molecular chemistry to predict the relative-humidity-dependent glass transition temperatures (T g ) of the aerosol components. Comparisons of the T g to the ambient temperature indicated that a majority of the organic aerosol components transported in the free troposphere were more viscous and therefore less susceptible to oxidation than the organic aerosol components transported inthe boundary layer. Although the number of observations is limited, the results suggest that biomass burning organic aerosol injected into the free troposphere is more persistent than organic aerosol in the boundary layer having broader implications for aerosol aging.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Annual cycle of aerosol properties over the central Arctic during MOSAiC 2019–2020 – light-extinction, CCN, and INP levels from the boundary layer to the tropopause

Abstract. The MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition was the largest Arctic field campaign ever conducted. MOSAiC offered the unique opportunity to monitor and characterize aerosols and clouds with high vertical resolution up to 30 km height at latitudes from 80 to 90∘ N over an entire year (October 2019 to September 2020). Without a clear knowledge of the complex aerosol layering, vertical structures, and dominant aerosol types and their impact on cloud formation, a full understanding of the meteorological processes in the Arctic, and thus advanced climate change research, is impossible. Widespread ground-based in situ observations in the Arctic are insufficient to provide these required aerosol and cloud data. In this article, a summary of our MOSAiC observations of tropospheric aerosol profiles with a state-of-the-art multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar aboard the icebreaker Polarstern is presented. Particle optical properties, i.e., light-extinction profiles and aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and estimates of cloud-relevant aerosol properties such as the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are discussed, separately for the lowest part of the troposphere (atmospheric boundary layer, ABL), within the lower free troposphere (around 2000 m height), and at the cirrus level close to the tropopause. In situ observations of the particle number concentration and INPs aboard Polarstern are included in the study. A strong decrease in the aerosol amount with height in winter and moderate vertical variations in summer were observed in terms of the particle extinction coefficient. The 532 nm light-extinction values dropped from >50 Mm−1 close to the surface to <5 Mm−1 at 4–6 km height in the winter months. Lofted, aged wildfire smoke layers caused a re-increase in the aerosol concentration towards the tropopause. In summer (June to August 2020), much lower particle extinction coefficients, frequently as low as 1–5 Mm−1, were observed in the ABL. Aerosol removal, controlled by in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging processes (widely suppressed in winter and very efficient in summer) in the lowermost 1–2 km of the atmosphere, seems to be the main reason for the strong differences between winter and summer aerosol conditions. A complete annual cycle of the AOT in the central Arctic could be measured. This is a valuable addition to the summertime observations with the sun photometers of the Arctic Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). In line with the pronounced annual cycle in the aerosol optical properties, typical CCN number concentrations (0.2 % supersaturation level) ranged from 50–500 cm−3 in winter to 10–100 cm−3 in summer in the ABL. In the lower free troposphere (at 2000 m), however, the CCN level was roughly constant throughout the year, with values mostly from 30 to 100 cm−3. A strong contrast between winter and summer was also given in terms of ABL INPs which control ice production in low-level clouds. While soil dust (from surrounding continents) is probably the main INP type during the autumn, winter, and spring months, local sea spray aerosol (with a biogenic aerosol component) seems to dominate the ice nucleation in the ABL during the summer months (June–August). The strong winter vs. summer contrast in the INP number concentration by roughly 2–3 orders of magnitude in the lower troposphere is, however, mainly caused by the strong cloud temperature contrast. A unique event of the MOSAiC expedition was the occurrence of a long-lasting wildfire smoke layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Our observations suggest that the smoke particles frequently triggered cirrus formation close to the tropopause from October 2019 to May 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dry and warm conditions in Australia exacerbated by aerosol reduction in China

A substantial decline in anthropogenic aerosols in China has been observed since the initiation of clean air actions in 2013. This study reveals a linkage between aerosol reductions in China and drier and warmer conditions in Australia. Aerosol decline in China trigger alterations in temperature and pressure gradients between the two hemispheres, leading to intensified outflow from Asia towards the South Indian Ocean, strengthening the Southern Indian Subtropical High and its related Southern Trade Winds. Consequently, this atmospheric pattern results in a moisture divergence over Australia. The reduction in surface moisture further results in more surface energy being converted into sensible heat instead of evaporating as latent heat, warming the near-surface air. The intensified dry and warm climate conditions further cause the increase in wildfire risks during fire seasons in Australia. Our study illuminates the potential impact of distant aerosols on precipitation and temperature variations in Australia, offering valuable insights for drought and wildfire risk mitigation in Australia.

aerosol-cloud interaction↗
DOE OSTI2022

Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars

In steep wildfire-burned terrains, intense rainfall can produce large runoff that can trigger highly destructive debris flows. However, the ability to accurately characterize and forecast debris flow susceptibility in burned terrains using physics-based tools remains limited. Here, we augment the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess postfire debris flow susceptibility over a regional domain. We perform hindcast simulations using high-resolution weather-radar-derived precipitation and reanalysis data to drive non-burned baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Our simulations focus on January 2021 when an atmospheric river triggered numerous debris flows within a wildfire burn scar in Big Sur – one of which destroyed California's famous Highway 1. Compared to the baseline, our burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge and shorter lags between rainfall onset and peak discharge, consistent with streamflow observations at nearby US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gage sites. For the 404 catchments located in the simulated burn scar area, median catchment-area-normalized peak discharge increases by ~ 450 % compared to the baseline. Catchments with anomalously high catchment-area-normalized peak discharge correspond well with post-event field-based and remotely sensed debris flow observations. We suggest that our regional postfire debris flow susceptibility analysis demonstrates WRF-Hydro as a compelling new physics-based tool whose utility could be further extended via coupling to sediment erosion and transport models and/or ensemble-based operational weather forecasts. Given the high-fidelity performance of our augmented version of WRF-Hydro, as well as its potential usage in probabilistic hazard forecasts, we argue for its continued development and application in postfire hydrologic and natural hazard assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of PV Fleet Performance in Western United States During August 2020 Extreme Heat Wave

Starting in June 2020 through the end of that year, the western and central United States experienced a widespread heat wave and drought, which resulted in US$5.44 billion (CPI-adjusted) worth of damages. The ongoing heat and drought produced record large wildfires across the region, responsible for an additional US$19.9 billion in damage. These natural disasters directly impacted the energy system in the western US, leading to power blackouts in August 2020. In this work, we analyze the NLR PV Fleets data set, focusing on the geographic area covered by the Western Coordinating Council (WECC). We find that over the 10-day period from August 14 through 24, the median PV system produced 12% lower energy than expected, with some locations experiencing total losses of around 30%. Analyzing the spatial-temporal structure of the data and supplementing with limited operational current and voltage data where available, we find that system underperformance was more strongly impacted by irradiance reduction from wildfire smoke rather than by the high heat itself.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1988

Mobile satellite communications in the Forest Service

There are usually some places within a forest that do not have adequate communication coverage due to line-of-sight or other reasons. These areas are generally known by the foresters and radio technicians and allowances are made for that when working or traveling in those areas. However, when wildfire or other emergencies occur, communications are vital because wildfires can require hundreds of firefighters and cover thousands of acres. During these emergency operations, the existing communications are not adequate and complete radio systems are moved into the area for the conduct of fire communications. Incident command posts (ICPs) and fire camps are set up in remote locations and there is constant need for communications in the fire area and to agency headquarters and dispatch offices. Mobile satellite communications would be an ideal supplement to the Forest Service's current communications system in aiding forest fire control activities.

Warren, John R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Atmospheric chemistry in the Arctic and subarctic - Influence of natural fires, industrial emissions, and stratospheric inputs

Layers with enhanced concentrations of trace gases intercepted by the NASA Electra aircraft over Alaska during the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A) in July-August 1988 are discussed. Haze layers apparently associated with boreal fires were enriched in hydrocarbons and NO(y), with emission factors corresponding closely to laboratory data for smoldering combustion. It is argued that atmospheric composition was strongly modified by wildfires during several periods of the ABLE 3A mission. The associated enhancement of NO(y) was smaller than observed for most other combustion processes but was nonetheless significant in the context of very low background concentrations. Ozone production in fire plumes was negligible. Ambient O3 was supplied by the stratosphere, with little direct input from midlatitude source during summer. It is argued that NO(y) was supplied about equally by the stratosphere and by wildfires. Hydrocarbons and CO appear to derive from biomass fires and from human activities.

Wofsy, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Estimating Canopy Water Content of Chaparral Shrubs Using Optical Methods

California chaparral ecosystems are exceptionally fire adapted and typically are subject to wildfire at decadal to century frequencies. The hot dry Mediterranean climate summers and the chaparral communities of the Santa Monica Mountains make wildfire one of the most serious economic and life-threatening natural disasters faced by the region. Additionally, the steep fire-burned hillsides are subject to erosion, slumpage, and mud slides during the winter rains. The Santa Monica Mountain Zone (SMMZ) is a 104,000 ha eastwest trending range with 607 m of vertical relief and located in the center of the greater Los Angeles region. A series of fires in the fall of 1993 burned from Simi Valley to Santa Monica within a few hours. Developing techniques to monitor fire hazard and predict the spread of fire is of major concern to the region. One key factor in the susceptibility to fire is the water content of the vegetation canopy. The development of imaging spectrometry and remote sensing techniques may constitute a tool to provide this information.

Ustin, Susan L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Demonstrating Acquisition of Real-Time Thermal Data over Fires Utilizing UAVs

NASA-Ames Research Center, in collaboration with General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. has been developing real-time data acquisition and information delivery systems employing uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) technology for disaster mitigation and assessment demonstrations. Working in conjunction with the US Forest Service, a disaster community agency responsible for wildfire management and mitigation, we developed a large-scale wildfire demonstration called the First Response Experiment (FIRE). During that experiment in late summer 2001, the participants demonstrated the melding of innovative technologies such as UAV platforms, real-time data processing, and data telemetry for quick analysis of a disaster event. The General Atomics ALTUS UAV, the Airborne Infrared Disaster Assessment System (AIRDAS) and Over-The-Horizon (OTH) satellite data telemetry equipment were employed over a controlled burn to test the feasibility of a disaster monitoring and mitigation platform for hazardous duty. The ALTUS UAV was employed to demonstrate the long duration, altitude, and payload capability of unmanned platforms for acquiring disaster related data. The ALTUS has an operational altitude to 45,000 feet (13,700 in), with a flight duration of twenty-four hours and a payload capacity of over 300 lbs. (148.5 kg). This allows the platform to operate under the conditions that would be necessary for monitoring and mitigating disaster events throughout the Unites States. The four channel AIRDAS data (calibrated thermal infrared digital imagery of the fire event) was sent from the ALTUS UAV via a satellite communications system (NERA transponder and INMARSAT satellite) to a data archive server and an image processing work station at NASA-Ames Research Center, 400 miles away.

Wegener, Steven S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Harnessing Systems Engineering Methodology in Using Earth Science Research Data for Real Applications

For the last three decades, Earth science remote sensing technologies have been providing an enormous amount of useful data and information serving to broaden our understanding of the home planet as a system. NASA's Earth science program has deployed about 18 complex satellites and is in the process of defining and launching multiple observing systems in this decade. At the same time, the European Community and many other countries such as Russia, France, India, Japan, and China have also significantly contributed to Earth science research. To date, the majority of such efforts have concentrated on expanding our scientific understanding of the multiple nonlinear and chaotic processes of Earth's behavior. In recent years, legislators and stakeholders have put serious pressure on the science community to devote more attention to making use of scientific results for societal benefit. For instance, there are a number of areas such as energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural efficiency, disaster management, air quality and public health that can directly take advantage of Earth science results to analyze and predict large scale problems and conditions. This is becoming even more important now that we live in a global economy interconnected via the internet and transportation systems; regional environmental conditions can have far reaching impact across continental boundaries. These factors dictate requirements for global data that can help us assess and control the devastating problems of famine, water resources, wildfires, human health and more. To do this requires a serious, organized, and systematic approach that transfers fundamental research products to the applied sciences domain. This paper presents a systems engineering and management process that can effectively make such transfer of data to the user community. Examples are presented on how the above decision making framework can help in solving critical problems such as the spread of vector borne diseases, forecasts of harmful algal blooms as well as forest fires and wildfires, and the intercontinental transport of dust storms and pollution.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2005

Applications of Principled Search Methods in Climate Influences and Mechanisms

Forest and grass fires cause economic losses in the billions of dollars in the U.S. alone. In addition, boreal forests constitute a large carbon store; it has been estimated that, were no burning to occur, an additional 7 gigatons of carbon would be sequestered in boreal soils each century. Effective wildfire suppression requires anticipation of locales and times for which wildfire is most probable, preferably with a two to four week forecast, so that limited resources can be efficiently deployed. The United States Forest Service (USFS), and other experts and agencies have developed several measures of fire risk combining physical principles and expert judgment, and have used them in automated procedures for forecasting fire risk. Forecasting accuracies for some fire risk indices in combination with climate and other variables have been estimated for specific locations, with the value of fire risk index variables assessed by their statistical significance in regressions. In other cases, the MAPSS forecasts [23, 241 for example, forecasting accuracy has been estimated only by simulated data. We describe alternative forecasting methods that predict fire probability by locale and time using statistical or machine learning procedures trained on historical data, and we give comparative assessments of their forecasting accuracy for one fire season year, April- October, 2003, for all U.S. Forest Service lands. Aside from providing an accuracy baseline for other forecasting methods, the results illustrate the interdependence between the statistical significance of prediction variables and the forecasting method used.

Glymour, Clark↗
NASA NTRS2006

Ozone Production from the 2004 North American Boreal Fires

We examine the ozone production from boreal forest fires based on a case study of wildfires in Alaska and Canada in summer 2004. The model simulations were performed with the chemistry transport model, MOZART-4, and were evaluated by comparison with a comprehensive set of aircraft measurements. In the analysis we use measurements and model simulations of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) at the PICO-NARE station located in the Azores within the pathway of North American outflow. The modeled mixing ratios were used to test the robustness of the enhancement ratio deltaO3/deltaCO (defined as the excess O3 mixing ratio normalized by the increase in CO) and the feasibility for using this ratio in estimating the O3 production from the wildfires. Modeled and observed enhancement ratios are about 0.25 ppbv/ppbv which is in the range of values found in the literature, and results in a global net O3 production of 12.9 2 Tg O3 during summer 2004. This matches the net O3 production calculated in the model for a region extending from Alaska to the East Atlantic (9-11 Tg O3) indicating that observations at PICO-NARE representing photochemically well-aged plumes provide a good measure of the O3 production of North American boreal fires. However, net chemical loss of fire related O3 dominates in regions far downwind from the fires (e.g. Europe and Asia) resulting in a global net O3 production of 6 Tg O3 during the same time period. On average, the fires increased the O3 burden (surface-300 mbar) over Alaska and Canada during summer 2004 by about 7-9%, and over Europe by about 2-3%.

Pfister, G. G.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Large Unmanned Aircraft System Operations in the National Airspace System - the NASA 2007 Western States Fire Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) Ikhana (ee-kah-nah) project executed the 2007 Western States Fire Missions over several of the western United States using an MQ-9 unmanned aircraft system (UAS) in partnership with the NASA Ames Research Center, the United States Forest Service, and the National Interagency Fire Center. The missions were intended to supply infrared imagery of wildfires to firefighters on the ground within 10 minutes of data acquisition. For each of the eight missions, the NASA DFRC notified the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of specific flight plans within three or fewer days of the flight. The FAA Certificate of Waiver or Authorization (commonly referred to as a COA ) process was used to obtain access to the United States National Airspace System. Significant time and resources were necessary to develop the COA application, perform mission planning, and define and approve emergency landing sites. Unique aspects of flying unmanned aircraft created challenges to mission operations. Close coordination with FAA headquarters and air traffic control resulted in safe and successful missions that assisted firefighters by providing near-real-time imagery of selected wildfires.

Buoni, Gregory P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A VARI-Based Relative Greenness from MODIS Data for Computing the Fire Potential Index

The Fire Potential Index (FPI) relies on relative greenness (RG) estimates from remote sensing data. The Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI), derived from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery is currently used to calculate RG operationally. Here we evaluated an alternate measure of RG using the Visible Atmospheric Resistant Index (VARI) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data. VARI was chosen because it has previously been shown to have the strongest relationship with Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) out of a wide selection of MODIS-derived indices in southern California shrublands. To compare MODIS-based NDVI-FPI and VARI-FPI, RG was calculated from a 6-year time series of MODIS composites and validated against in-situ observations of LFM as a surrogate for vegetation greenness. RG from both indices was then compared in terms of its performance for computing the FPI using historical wildfire data. Computed RG values were regressed against ground-sampled LFM at 14 sites within Los Angeles County. The results indicate the VARI-based RG consistently shows a stronger relationship with observed LFM than NDVI-based RG. With an average R2 of 0.727 compared to a value of only 0.622 for NDVI-RG, VARI-RG showed stronger relationships at 13 out of 14 sites. Based on these results, daily FPI maps were computed for the years 2001 through 2005 using both NDVI-RG and VARI-RG. These were then validated against 12,490 fire detections from the MODIS active fire product using logistic regression. Deviance of the logistic regression model was 408.8 for NDVI-FPI and 176.2 for VARI-FPI. The c-index was found to be 0.69 and 0.78, respectively. The results show that VARI-FP outperforms NDVI-FPI in distinguishing between fire and no-fire events for historical wildfire data in southern California for the given time period.

Schneider, P.↗