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At least 793 records · Page 44

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DOE OSTI2024

Bimodality in simulated precipitation frequency distributions and its relationship with convective parameterizations

Abstract Bimodality in precipitation frequency distributions is often evident in atmospheric models, but rarely in observations. This study i) proposes a metric to objectively quantify the bimodality in precipitation distributions, ii) evaluates model simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5), phase 6 (CMIP6), and the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) project by comparing them to satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products, and iii) investigates possible origins of bimodal precipitation distributions. Our results reveal that about 83% (20 out of 24) of CMIP5 and 70% (21 out of 30) of CMIP6 models used in this study exhibit bimodal distributions. The few DYAMOND models that use a deep convective parameterization also show bimodal distributions, while most DYAMOND models do not. Predictably, the bimodality originates from the separation of precipitation process between resolved grid-scale and parameterized subgrid-scale. However, in a larger number of models bimodality arises from the parameterized subgrid-scale convective precipitation alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

The feasibility of extended and long-range weather prediction by means of global atmospheric models was studied. A number of computer experiments were conducted at GISS with the GISS global general circulation model. Topics discussed include atmospheric response to sea-surface temperature anomalies, and monthly mean forecast experiments with the global model.

Spar, J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Documentation of the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheres fourth-order two-layer shallow water model

The theory and numerical treatment used in the 2-level GLA fourth-order shallow water model are described. This model was designed to emulate the horizontal finite differences used by the GLA Fourth-Order General Circulation Model (Kalnay et al., 1983) in addition to its grid structure, form of high-latitude and global filtering, and time-integration schemes. A user's guide is also provided instructing the user on how to create initial conditions, execute the model, and post-process the data history.

Takacs, L. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Energetics diagnosis of numerical simulation of atmospheric blocking

A series of systematic comprehensive diagnoses of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) General Circulation Model (GCM) simulation experiments was performed in reference to predictability and energetics of the Northern Hemisphere blocking circulation. The simulation experiments were performed. The following subject areas are also covered: an analysis of simulated summer blocking episodes; energetics examination of winter blocking simulations in the Northern Hemisphere; normal mode energetic and error analysis of GLA GCM simulations with the different horizontal resolutions during a winter month; and simulations of winter blocking episodes using observed sea surface temperatures.

Kung, Ernest C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Midlatitude weather systems on Mars: Is there a hemispheric asymmetry?

The Viking Lander meteorology observations confirmed that midlatitude weather systems are present in the Northern Hemisphere of Mars during the autumn, winter, and early spring. These systems have properties consistent with a development through baroclinic instability of the wintertime zonal-mean circulation. It is known that the weather systems must be of importance for the zonal-mean circulation by virtue of their heat and momentum transports. Observations show that they are associated with dust raising, and they must be involved in the transport of dust; the weather systems almost certainly must act to produce significant water transports as well. Recent simulations with the ARC Mars General Circulation Model (GCM) show that the heat transports by the weather system (and by the zonal-mean circulation) during northern winter can be very substantial: large enough to significantly reduce the CO2 condensation at polar latitudes. This could be largely responsible for the observed early spring halt in the north polar cap recession and for the presence of westerly winds near the cap edge during this season.

Barnes, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The East Asian Jet Stream and its Climate Impact

In this talk, I will present results from an analysis of the winter westerly jet stream over East Asia. The variability of the jet and its teleconnection to other climate subsystems such as the Asian winter monsoon, ENSO, and tropical convection will be focused. The role of external forcing and the predictability of the jet will be assessed using models. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, NASA GPCP data, and results from experiments with the NASA GOES-2 general circulation model will be studied.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS2000

Model Study of the Sources of Upper Tropospheric Ozone Over The Atlantic, with Emphasis on Interhemispheric Asymmetries

Measurements of ozone and aerosols from ships transecting the Atlantic Ocean reveal considerable interhemispheric asymmetries in the vertical structure of the ozone distribution. There is much more upper tropospheric ozone to the South of the Equator than in the northern hemisphere. These profiles suggest that the air in the southern hemispheric tropics and subtropics has a source in the stratosphere, while that in the northern hemisphere originates in the boundary layer. A model experiment designed to investigate this problem will be discussed. They are based on a new general circulation model, based on a Finite-Volume dynamical core and the physical parametrizations from the Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The model simulates a climatological state in reasonable agreement with observations, comparable to other contemporary climate models, but has a much more accurate transport capability than most other present-day models. The experiment involves using a suite of tracers, designed to highlight air from different source regions. Some of these (water vapor and ozone) represent real atmospheric quantities, while others are markers which indicate whether the air originates in the stratosphere, the boundary layer, or has traversed regions of convection (for example). The experiments were run for periods of up to one month, initialized from snapshots from a long climate integration of the model. A sample of results will be presented, chosen to illustrate the different sources of air in the upper troposphere and the physical mechanisms by which these air parcels arrived there.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2003

Performance of Goddard Earth Observing System GCM Column Radiation Models under Heterogeneous Cloud Conditions

We test the performance of the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) Column Radiation Models (CORAMs) of Chou and collaborators with heterogeneous cloud fields from a global single-day dataset produced by NCAR's Community Atmospheric Model with a 2-D CRM installed in each gridbox. The original SW version of the CORAM performs quite well compared to reference Independent Column Approximation (ICA) calculations for boundary fluxes, largely due to the success of a combined overlap and cloud scaling parameterization scheme. The absolute magnitude of errors relative to ICA are even smaller for the LW CORAM which applies similar overlap. The vertical distribution of heating and cooling within the atmosphere is also simulated quite well with daily-averaged zonal errors always below 0.3 K/d for SW heating rates and 0.6 K/d for LW cooling rates. The SW CORAM's performance improves by introducing a scheme that accounts for cloud inhomogeneity. These results suggest that previous studies demonstrating the inaccuracy of plane-parallel models may have unfairly focused on worst scenario cases, and that current radiative transfer algorithms of General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be more capable than previously thought in estimating realistic spatial and temporal averages of radiative fluxes, as long as they are provided with correct mean cloud profiles. However, even if the errors of the particular CORAMs are small, they seem to be systematic, and the impact of the biases can be fully assessed only with GCM climate simulations.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Mars: Wind, Dust Sand, and Debris

The session "Mars: Wind, Dust Sand, and Debris" included: Mars Exploration Rovers: Laboratory Simulations of Aeolian Interactions; Thermal and Spectral Analysis of an Intracrater Dune Field in Amazonis Planitia; How High is that Dune? A Comparison of Methods Used to Constrain the Morphometry of Aeolian Bedforms on Mars; Dust Devils on Mars: Scaling of Dust Flux Based on Laboratory Simulations; A Close Encounter with a Terrestrial Dust Devil; Interpretation of Wind Direction from Eolian Features: Herschel Crater, Mars Erosion Rates at the Viking 2 Landing Site; Mars Dust: Characterization of Particle Size and Electrostatic Charge Distributions; Simple Non-fluvial Models of Planetary Surface Modification, with Application to Mars; Comparison of Geomorphically Determined Winds with a General Circulation Model: Herschel Crater, Mars; Analysis of Martian Debris Aprons in Eastern Hellas Using THEMIS; Origin of Martian Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Lobate Debris Aprons; Debris Aprons in the Tempe/Mareotis Region of Mars;and Constraining Flow Dynamics of Mass Movements on Earth and Mars.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2005

Progress Towards Computational Method for Circulation Control Airfoils

The compressible Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are solved for circulation control airfoil flows. Numerical solutions are computed with both structured and unstructured grid solvers. Several turbulence models are considered, including the Spalart-Allmaras model with and without curvature corrections, the shear stress transport model of Menter, and the k-enstrophy model. Circulation control flows with jet momentum coefficients of 0.03, 0.10, and 0.226 are considered. Comparisons are made between computed and experimental pressure distributions, velocity profiles, Reynolds stress profiles, and streamline patterns. Including curvature effects yields the closest agreement with the measured data.

Swanson, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Effects of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in an AOGCM

Stratospheric ozone depletion has played a dominant role in driving Antarctic climate change in the last decades. In order to capture the stratospheric ozone forcing, many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) prescribe the Antarctic ozone hole using monthly and zonally averaged ozone field. However, the prescribed ozone hole has a high ozone bias and lacks zonal asymmetry. The impacts of these biases on model simulations, particularly on Southern Ocean and the Antarctic sea ice, are not well understood. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change in an AOGCM. We compare two sets of ensemble simulations for the 1960-2010 period using different versions of the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 - AOGCM: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry, and the other with prescribed monthly and zonally averaged ozone and 6 other stratospheric radiative species calculated from the interactive chemistry simulations. Consistent with previous studies using prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, the interactive chemistry runs simulate a deeper Antarctic ozone hole and consistently larger changes in surface pressure and winds than the prescribed ozone runs. The use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model in this study enables us to determine the impact of these surface changes on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic sea ice. The larger surface wind trends in the interactive chemistry case lead to larger Southern Ocean circulation trends with stronger changes in northerly and westerly surface flow near the Antarctica continent and stronger upwelling near 60S. Using interactive chemistry also simulates a larger decrease of sea ice concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of using interactive chemistry in order to correctly capture the influences of stratospheric ozone depletion on climate change over Antarctic and the Southern Ocean.

Antarctic climate change↗

NASA NTRS2020

Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.

Paris Agreement↗

NASA NTRS1994

The simulated Indian monsoon: A GCM sensitivity study

A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted in an attempt to understand and correct deficiencies in the simulation of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon with a global atmospheric general circulation model. The seasonal mean precipitation is less than half that observed. This poor simulation in seasonal integrations is independent of the choice of initial conditions and global sea surface temperature data used. Experiments are performed to test the sensitivity of the Indian monsoon simulation to changes in orography, vegetation, soil, wetness, and cloudiness. The authors find that the deficiency of the model precipitation simulation may be attributed to the use of an enhanced orography in the integrations. Replacement of this orography with a mean orography results in a much more realistic simulation of Indian monsoon circulation and rainfall. Experiments with a linear primitive equation model on the sphere suggest that this striking improvement is due to modulations of the orographically forced waves in the lower troposphere. This improvement in the monsoon simulation is due to the kinematic and dynamical effects of changing the topography, rather than the thermal effects, which were minimal. The magnitude of the impact on the Indian monsoon of the other sensitivity experiments varied considerably, but was consistently less than the impact of using the mean orography. However, results from the soil moisture sensitivity experiments suggest a possibly important role for soil moisture in simulating tropical precipitation, including that associated with the Indian monsoon.

Fennessy, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model - Correction

One of the three monthly mean forecasts computed previously by Spar et al., (1976) with the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) general circulation model was started from incorrect initial conditions. For the January 1975 prediction, a climatological mean January data set was accidentally substituted for the required January 1, 1975 initial data. In the present paper, the forecast for January 1975 is computed with the proper initial conditions, and the corrected results are presented. It is shown that the use of correct initial conditions improves the gross forecast mean energetics. In general, the use of correct initial conditions has resulted in a modest improvement in the monthly mean forecast for January 1975, but has not altered any of the previous conclusions by Spar et al.

Spar, J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Simulation and Prediction of Warm Season Drought in North America

This presentation presents our recent work on model simulation and prediction of warm season drought in North America. The emphasis will be on the contribution from the leading modes of subseasonal atmospheric circulation variability, which are often present in the form of stationary Rossby waves. Here we take advantage of the results from observations, reanalyses, and simulations and reforecasts performed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric and coupled General Circulation Model (GCM). Our results show that stationary Rossby waves play a key role in Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric circulation and surface meteorology variability on subseasonal timescales. In particular, such waves have been crucial to the development of recent short-term warm season heat waves and droughts over North America (e.g. the 1988, 1998, and 2012 summer droughts) and northern Eurasia (e.g., the 2003 summer heat wave over Europe and the 2010 summer drought and heat wave over Russia). Through an investigation of the physical processes by which these waves lead to the development of warm season drought in North America, it is further found that these waves can serve as a potential source of drought predictability. In order to properly represent their effect and exploit this source of predictability, a model needs to correctly simulate the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean jet streams and be able to predict the sources of these waves. Given the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM deficiency in simulating the NH jet streams and tropical convection during boreal summer, an approach has been developed to artificially remove much of model mean biases, which leads to considerable improvement in model simulation and prediction of stationary Rossby waves and drought development in North America. Our study points to the need to identify key model biases that limit model simulation and prediction of regional climate extremes, and diagnose the origin of these biases so as to inform modeling group for model improvement.

Rossby Waves↗

NASA NTRS1985

Mars atmospheric circulation - Aspects from Viking Landers

Winds measured by the two Viking Landers have been filtered and then compared with predictions from the general circulation model and to Orbiter observations of clouds and surface phenomena that indicate wind direction. This was done to determine the degree to which filtered winds may represent aspects of the general circulation. Excellent agreement was found between wind direction data from Lander 1 and the model predictions and Orbiter observations. For Lander 2, agreement was generally good, but there were periods of disagreement which indicate that the filtering did not remove other extraneous effects. It is concluded that Lander 1 gives a good representation of the general circulation at 22.5 deg N latitude but that Lander 2 is suspect. Most wind data from Lander 1 have yet to be analyzed. It appears that when analyzed these Lander 1 data (covering 3.5 Mars years) can provide information about interannual variations in the general circulation at the Lander latitude.

Ryan, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

An implementation of a barotropic quasigeostrophic model of ocean circulation on the MPP

The implementation on the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) of a barotropic quasigeostrophic model of ocean circulation is discussed. The mathematical model, including scalings and boundary conditions is discussed. The numerical scheme, which uses compact differencing is also discussed. The implementation of this model on the MPP is then presented. Finally, some performance results are given and compared to results obtained using the VPS-32 and one processor of a CRAY-2.

Grosch, C. E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Future projections in the climatology of global low-level jets from CORDEX-CORE simulations

The potential changes in the strength and location of five low-level jets (LLJs) located within four Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using an ensemble of simulations conducted with the RegCM4 regional model at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing. Lateral and lower boundary forcing fields are from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), and we analyse a historical period (1995–2014) along with two future periods (2041–2060 and 2080–2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5. The RegCM4, as driven by the GCMs, is capable of capturing most of the observed climatological features of the LLJs, both in terms of spatial location and seasonal evolution. Analysis of the influence of global warming on the LLJs shows a consistent strengthening of the jets and a shift in their location under both warming scenarios. The Monsoon and West African westerly LLJs exhibit a northward shift, while the Caribbean and South American LLJs present a westward expansion. The use of an ensemble of high-resolution simulations is found to provide a key element for a robust assessment of changes in LLJs associated with future global warming scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗