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DOE OSTI2021

Influence of the Kuroshio Intrusion on Deep Flow Intraseasonal Variability in the Northern South China Sea

Abstract Interactions between the open ocean and marginal seas have been suggested to be critical to the redistribution and dissipation of global energy. Here, we propose a mechanism for the upper open ocean influencing the deep flow in marginal seas that hinges on the formation and propagation of topographic Rossby waves (TRWs). Observations and high‐resolution simulations suggest substantial intraseasonal variability with periods of 5–60 days associated with the deep flow over continental slopes of the northern South China Sea (NSCS). These fluctuations generally account for over 40% of the total deep kinetic energy variability and the number can reach 70% over the slopes to the west of the Luzon Strait, southwest of the Dongsha Islands, and northeast of the Xisha Islands. By examining the spatiotemporal features of the fluctuations, we demonstrate that the intraseasonal variability of the deep flow in the NSCS is closely associated with TRWs. Using a recently developed multiscale energetics analysis in combination with a ray tracing model, we show that the energy sources of TRWs can be traced back to the east of the Dongsha Islands, where the Kuroshio intrusion and related eddies energize the TRWs primarily through pressure work. These waves propagate westward across the NSCS and drive the intraseasonal variability of the deep flow over continental slopes. Our findings highlight an energy pathway from the open ocean western boundary current to the abyssal marginal sea that could modulate regional circulation as well as exchanges between major ocean basins.

Quan, Qi↗

DOE OSTI2024

Vortex splitting in two-dimensional fluids and non-neutral electron plasmas with smooth vorticity profiles

Initially, elliptical, quasi-two-dimensional (2D) fluid vortices can split into multiple pieces if the aspect ratio is sufficiently large due to the growth and saturation of perturbations known as Love modes on the vortex edge. Presented here are experiments and numerical simulations, showing that the aspect ratio threshold for vortex splitting is significantly higher for vortices with realistic, smooth edges than that predicted by a simple “vortex patch” model, where the vorticity is treated as piecewise constant inside a deformable boundary. The experiments are conducted by exploiting the E × B drift dynamics of collisionless, pure electron plasmas in a Penning–Malmberg trap, which closely model 2D vortex dynamics due to an isomorphism between the Drift–Poisson equations describing the plasmas and the Euler equations describing ideal fluids. The simulations use a particle-in-cell method to model the evolution of a set of point vortices. The aspect ratio splitting threshold ranges up to about twice as large as the vortex patch prediction and depends on the edge vorticity gradient. This is thought to be due to spatial Landau damping, which decreases the vortex aspect ratio over time and, thus, stabilizes the Love modes. Near the threshold, asymmetric splitting events are observed in which one of the split products contains much less circulation than the other. These results are relevant to a wide range of quasi-2D fluid systems, including geophysical fluids, astrophysical disks, and drift-wave eddies in tokamak plasmas.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) C-band Radar Deployment Field Campaign Report

Convective clouds play a critical role in the Earth’s climate system, acting as sinks of total water in the atmospheric column through precipitation, thereby contributing to the atmospheric energy balance. They serve as a primary mechanism for the transfer of heat, moisture, and momentum through the troposphere, significantly impacting the large-scale atmospheric circulation and local environment, and affecting the probability of subsequent cloud formation (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984, Su et al. 2014, Sherwood et al. 2014). Convective characteristics including convective core size (reflectivity and updraft), cloud lifetime, precipitation intensity, total precipitation amount, precipitation efficiency, and lightning flash rates can be strongly related to environmental factors (e.g., wind shear, humidity). Since cumulus clouds evolve rapidly, their microphysical and dynamical properties and life cycles are challenging to resolve in models, and even in observations (e.g., Fridlind et al. 2017, Ladino et al. 2017).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

FY2020 Fourth Quarter Performance Metric: Evaluate Improvement in Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems from New Parameterization Developments in E3SM

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) consist of an assembly of cumulonimbus clouds on scales of 100 km or more and produce mesoscale circulations (Houze, 2004, 2018). As the largest form of deep convective storms, MCSs contribute to 30% – 70% of annual and warm season rainfall in the U.S. and in the global tropics (Houze 2018; Stevenson & Schumacher, 2014; Feng et al., 2019; Haberlie & Ashley, 2019). Since MCSs contribute importantly to mean and extreme precipitation in the U.S. and many other regions around the world, understanding how well they are simulated by E3SM may guide future development towards more skillful modeling of convective storms and associated hydrologic impacts. The FY2020 Second Quarter Performance Metric Report documented comparisons of MCSs in the central and eastern U.S. in a high-resolution simulation produced by E3SM v1 at 25 km resolution (Caldwell et al. 2019) with observations. MCSs in the simulation occur less frequently and produce less intense precipitation, resulting in large underestimation of MCS volumetric rain-rate compared to observations. The first and third quarter performance metric report indicated that these model biases in simulating MCSs can be attributed to model limitations in parameterizing convection, clouds, and other related processes, as well as model biases in simulating the MCS large-scale environment. In the current FY2020 Fourth Quarter Performance Metric Report, we evaluate MCSs simulated in E3SM with several new developments in convection parameterizations that are being developed for its next generation. The goal is to summarize what have been improved with the new developments and highlight what need more work in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The DOE E3SM Model Version 2: Overview of the Physical Model and Initial Model Evaluation

Abstract This work documents version two of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SMv2 is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in a model that is nearly twice as fast and with a simulated climate that is improved in many metrics. We describe the physical climate model in its lower horizontal resolution configuration consisting of 110 km atmosphere, 165 km land, 0.5° river routing model, and an ocean and sea ice with mesh spacing varying between 60 km in the mid‐latitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles. The model performance is evaluated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations augmented with historical simulations as well as simulations to evaluate impacts of different forcing agents. The simulated climate has many realistic features of the climate system, with notable improvements in clouds and precipitation compared to E3SMv1. E3SMv1 suffered from an excessively high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. In E3SMv2, ECS is reduced to 4.0 K which is now within the plausible range based on a recent World Climate Research Program assessment. However, a number of important biases remain including a weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, deficiencies in the characteristics and spectral distribution of tropical atmospheric variability, and a significant underestimation of the observed warming in the second half of the historical period. An analysis of single‐forcing simulations indicates that correcting the historical temperature bias would require a substantial reduction in the magnitude of the aerosol‐related forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Educational Guide for 2D Stellar Structure Calculations of Rapidly Rotating Stars using the ESTER code

The Evolution STEllaire en Rotation (ESTER) code is the first 2D stellar structure code to be made open-source and freely available to the astronomy and astrophysics community. An important and novel advancement of this code is that it can reproduce the distorted shape and observable signatures (e.g., gravity darkening) of rapidly rotating stars. ESTER also calculates the steady-state large-scale flows within the star, namely their differential rotation and associated meridional circulation. In this report, we explore and document the physics implemented within version 1.1.0rc2 of the ESTER code, in a way that complements published descriptions. We illustrate this physics by plotting how stellar structure parameters vary through stellar interiors at a range of latitudes and at different angular velocities. We investigate how the thin convective envelopes of intermediate mass stars vary with latitude when rapidly rotating, becoming deeper and thicker near the equator. Simple comparisons of ESTER model predictions (e.g., central temperature and density, luminosity) with the output from the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) code [Paxton et al., 2010] shows generally good agreement. Additional comparisons provide important benchmarking and verification for ESTER as a comparatively young code. Finally, we provide a guide for installing and running the code on our local university cluster, aimed at helping students to begin work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective systems in the third pole region: Characteristics, mechanisms and impact on precipitation

The climate system of the Third Pole region, including the (TP) and its surroundings, is highly sensitive to global warming. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are understood to be a vital component of this climate system. Driven by the monsoon circulation, surface heating, and large-scale and local moisture supply, they frequently occur during summer and mostly over the central and eastern TP as well as in the downstream regions. Further, MCSs have been highlighted as important contributors to total precipitation as they are efficient rain producers affecting water availability (seasonal precipitation) and potential flood risk (extreme precipitation) in the densely populated downstream regions. The availability of multi-decadal satellite observations and high-resolution climate model datasets has made it possible to study the role of MCSs in the under-observed TP water balance. However, the usage of different methods for MCS identification and the different focuses on specific subregions currently hamper a systematic and consistent assessment of the role played by MCSs and their impact on precipitation over the TP headwaters and its downstream regions. Here, we review observational and model studies of MCSs in the TP region within a common framework to elucidate their main characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and impact on seasonal and extreme precipitation. We also identify major knowledge gaps and provide suggestions on how these can be addressed using recently published high-resolution model datasets. Three important identified knowledge gaps are 1) the feedback of MCSs to other components of the TP climate system, 2) the impact of the changing climate on future MCS characteristics, and 3) the basin-scale assessment of flood and drought risks associated with changes in MCS frequency and intensity. A particularly promising tool to address these knowledge gaps are convection-permitting climate simulations. Therefore, the systematic evaluation of existing historical convection-permitting climate simulations over the TP is an urgent requirement for reliable future climate change assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics Analysis of the MSRE Experiment Using Griffin-SAM Coupled Code System

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) with flowing fuel have the unique feature of utilizing the fuel salt for heat generation and extraction at the same time since the fuel salt is circulating through the whole primary loop of the reactor. This movement of the fuel salt results in a partial decay of the delayed neutron precursors (DNPs) outside the core and corresponding redistribution in the active core region. To capture this phenomenon accurately, neutronics and thermal hydraulics computational tools need to be modified to handle the movement of the DNPs and their decay. Idaho and Argonne National Laboratories are actively working on developing neutronics and thermal hydraulics tools to model MSRs with flowing fuel. The neutronics code Griffin and the thermal hydraulics code SAM were extended to handle flowing fuel with the drift of the DNPs under the MOOSE framework. In this work, a simplified Multiphysics model of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) is developed and utilized to perform steady-state and transient analyses. The MSRE experiments were designed to show the impact of the DNPs losses on core reactivity. The following section provides a description of the MSRE experiment with the core main parameters used to develop the model. Then, the developed Multiphysics model of the MSRE is presented. Finally, steady-state verification tests and unprotected loss of flow transient tests are discussed followed by a summary and conclusions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reliability, stability during long-term storage, and intra-individual variation of circulating levels of osteopontin, osteoprotegerin, vascular endothelial growth factor-A, and interleukin-17A

Background: Studies in many populations have reported associations between circulating cytokine levels and various physiological or pathological conditions. However, the reliability of cytokine measurements in population studies, which measure cytokines in multiple assays over a prolonged period, has not been adequately examined; nor has stability during sample storage or intra-individual variation been assessed. Methods: We assessed (1) analytical reliability in short- and long-term repeated measurements; (2) stability and analytical reliability during long-term sample storage, and (3) variability within individuals over seasons, of four cytokines—osteopontin (OPN), osteoprotegerin (OPG), vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A), and interleukin-17A (IL-17A). Measurements in plasma or serum samples were made with commercial kits according to standard procedures. Estimation was performed by fitting a random or mixed effects linear model on the log scale. Results: In repeated assays over a short period, OPN, OPG, and VEGF-A had acceptable reliability, with intra- and inter-assay coefficients of variation (CV) less than 0.11. Reliability of IL-17A was poor, with inter- and intra-assay CV 0.85 and 0.43, respectively. During long-term storage, OPG significantly decayed (-33% per year; 95% confidence interval [-54, -3.7]), but not OPN or VEGF-A (-0.3% or -6.3% per year, respectively). Intra- and inter-assay CV over a long period were comparable to that in a short period except for a slight increase in inter-assay CV of VEGF-A. Within-individual variation was small for OPN and VEGF-A, with intra-class correlations (ICC) 0.68 and 0.83, respectively, but large for OPG (ICC 0.11). Conclusions: We conclude that OPN and VEGF-A can be reliably measured in a large population, that IL-17A is suitable only for small experiments, and that OPG should be assessed with caution due to degradation during storage and intra-individual variation. The overall results of our study illustrate the need for validation under relevant conditions when measuring circulating cytokines in population studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of background sources and topographic resolution in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on xenon plume characteristics at monitoring stations

For many atmospheric monitoring applications, networks of measurement sites—such as the radionuclide stations of the International Monitoring System—can be sparse. With measurement locations potentially hundreds to thousands of kilometers from a release it is important to quantify the effects of physical processes on transport and dispersion of plumes between source and measurement locations. This study addresses the effects of background sources and topography resolution near the release location of radionuclides. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with inline chemistry to investigate (1) how an additional, time-varying source of 133 Xe, such as an operational medical isotope production facility, contributes to activity concentration measurements at monitoring sites, and (2) how complex topography influences on atmospheric conditions near emission sources impact plume concentrations at varying distances from the source. Two 133 Xe emission sources, including (1) a high flux rate of short duration representing an explosive event, and (2) a variable and continuous background source, are simulated. The continuous background source contributes significantly to total 133 Xe concentrations at several monitoring stations. Further, a WRF simulation at 9 km horizontal resolution is compared with a nested grid simulation, where the innermost domain has a resolution of 1 km. Increased topographic resolution leads to an improved representation of plume responses to local winds, with topographic influences greatest at locations closest to the sources. Differences between the two domain resolutions decrease at greater distances from the sources, as plumes have time to spread and mix and are influenced by synoptic scale circulation patterns that are represented similarly in both simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to global warming

The relative roles of the oceanic and atmospheric processes in the pattern formation of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response to global warming is investigated using a set of climate model experiments embedded with a novel partial coupling technique. Here, the modeling results show that the SST response experiences a transition from a La Niña-like warming pattern at the initial stage to an El Niño-like warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. By decomposing anomalous equatorial Pacific SST into atmosphere-forced passive component and ocean dynamics-induced active component, it is found that the SST warming pattern at both stages is entirely induced by its active component. Specifically, the meridional and vertical ocean circulation changes play a dominant role in forming the La Niña-like SST warming pattern at the initial stage, and the zonal and meridional ocean circulation changes are responsible for the formation of the El Niño-like SST warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. In contrast, the passive SST at both stages is characterized by a zonally uniform warming along the equator, which can be explained by a balance between the cooling effect associated with mean upwelling and the warming effect due to surface passive heat flux change. In addition, this study finds that it is the slowdown of the Pacific subtropical cells during the transition period that controls the evolution of the equatorial SST warming pattern by changing the meridional and vertical ocean heat transports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of projected changes in sea surface temperature on ozone pollution in China toward carbon neutrality

The global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected to change diversely in the future under different climate scenarios, which will affect the near-surface ozone (O 3 ) distribution and concentration by influencing meteorological states and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Many countries have planned to reach carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century. Here in this study, the impacts of global and regional SST changes on near-surface O 3 concentrations in China in the middle of the 21st century under the carbon-neutral scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9), compared with the high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5), and possible physical and chemical mechanisms are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Under future climate change, the changes in SSTs in the carbon-neutral scenario relative to the high-emission scenario lead to a dipole change in near-surface O 3 concentrations in eastern and western China, with a significant decrease of 0.79 ppbv in the eastern China and a significant increase of 1.05 ppbv in the western China. The cooling of North Pacific Ocean under the carbon-neutral scenario causes a decrease in near-surface O 3 concentrations by 0.48 ppbv in eastern China due to the weakened chemical production and an increase by 0.74 ppbv in western China attributed to the enhanced O 3 transport from Eurasia. Cooling of Southern Hemisphere oceans leads to anomalous upward air motions over eastern China, which weaken the vertical transport of high-altitude O 3 to the surface. Our results suggest that future changes in SSTs in the carbon-neutral scenario will positively benefit O 3 air quality improvement in the polluted eastern China, with the North Pacific and Southern Hemisphere oceans playing important roles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analytic results for scalar-mediated Higgs boson production in association with two jets

Abstract We present compact analytic formulae for all one-loop amplitudes representing the production of a Higgs boson in association with two jets, mediated by a colour triplet scalar particle. Many of the integral coefficients present for scalar mediators are identical to the case when a massive fermion circulates in the loop, reflecting a close relationship between the two theories. The calculation is used to study Higgs boson production in association with two jets in a simplified supersymmetry (SUSY) scenario in which the dominant additional contributions arise from loops of top squarks. The results presented here facilitate an indirect search for top squarks in this channel, by a precision measurement of the corresponding cross section. However, we find that the potential for improved discrimination between the Standard Model and SUSY cases suggested by the pattern of results in the one- and two-jet samples is unlikely to be realized due to the loss in statistical power compared to an inclusive analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Role of ocean coupling in the weakening of the extratropical storm tracks from Arctic sea ice loss

Abstract Within the changing climate, the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks have been projected to shift poleward and expand eastward. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks arise from a variety of sometimes competing effects on the region's baroclinicity. Arctic amplification weakens the meridional temperature gradient, hence weakening the storm track, while low-latitude warming has the opposite effect, and surface-amplified warming at high latitudes reduces static stability. To determine the mechanisms driving these competing changes, we use a hierarchy of models with different levels of ocean-atmosphere coupling, using forcings from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) to assess the role of Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. We find that ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances and sharpens the weakening of both the North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks in response to Arctic sea ice loss, that surface turbulent heat flux modulates the intensity of the weakening, and that local ocean dynamics controls the meridional location of the response. A moist isentropic diagnostic of the atmospheric overturning circulation shows that most of the weakening of the storm tracks and its associated changes in atmospheric heat transport (AHT) arise from a weakening of the transient eddy mass flux. Poleward of the storm tracks, the AHT also decreases, but through weakened effective stratification rather than weakening mass fluxes, an effect which occurs even in the absence of ocean dynamical coupling.

Audette, Alexandre (ORCID:0000000163321088)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Numerical study of proppant transport and settling processes in fractures

Reservoir stimulation by creating hydraulically conductive fractures is the key step for enabling enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The effectiveness of stimulation is significantly influenced by the deposition of proppant inside induced fractures. The transportation and settling of proppant in a propagating fracture is controlled by a multitude of operational and physical parameters, including the fracturing fluid rheology, injection rate, proppant concentration, fracture length/aperture evolution, proppant size/density/shape, etc. A numerical tool that robustly and efficiently accounts for all important attributes can facilitate the design and optimization of reservoir stimulation. This study presents the novel computational tool ELK (ELectrical fracKing) developed for the numerical simulation of proppant-fluid mixture circulation in a fractured geothermal reservoir. We enriched the MOOSE-based PorousFlow module with a suite of equations to consider the fluid-proppant mixture with particle-particle/fluid interactions, which include gravitational settling, particle convection, particle hampering, and strong density and viscosity contrasts. The computational tool is validated by comparing the predicted proppant bed evolution against two different laboratory scale experiments of proppant transport in a fixed aperture channel. Further parameter studies were performed, and the modeling results show that the proppant deposition is determined by the mixing characteristics and settling of the particles from the slurry. Concentration-dependent density and viscosity lead to an inhomogeneous distribution of the proppant, particle collision, and enhanced settling at the bottom of the fractures. Preliminary coupling with dynamic fracture propagation shows promising results and will be further developed to simulate hydraulic stimulation at high fidelity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Self-Assembled Solute Networks in Crowded Electrolyte Solutions and Nanoconfinement of Charged Redoxmer Molecules

Redoxmers are electrochemically active organic molecules storing charge and energy in electrolyte fluids circulating through redox flow batteries (RFBs). Such molecules typically have solvent-repelling cores and solvent-attracting pendant groups introduced to increase solubility in liquid electrolytes. These two features can facilitate nanoscale aggregation of the redoxmer molecules in crowded solutions. In some cases, this aggregation leads to the emergence of continuous networks of solute molecules in contact, and the solution becomes microscopically heterogeneous. In this study, we used small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and molecular dynamics modeling to demonstrate formation of such networks and examine structural factors controlling this self-assembly. We also show that salt ions become excluded from these solute aggregates into small pockets of electrolytes, where these ions strongly associate. This confinement by exclusion is also likely to occur to charged redoxmer molecules in a “sea” of neutral precursors coexisting in the same solution. Here, we demonstrate that the decay lifetime of the confined charged molecules in such solutions can increase several fold compared to dilute solutions. We attribute this behavior to a “microreactor effect” on reverse reactions of the confined species during their decomposition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Compound Drought and Heatwaves at a Global Scale: The Role of Natural Climate Variability-Associated Synoptic Patterns and Land-Surface Energy Budget Anomalies

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered much attention in recent studies. However, thus far, the identification of such events is oversimplified, and their association with natural climate variability is not fully explored. Here, we derive anomalies in the weekly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) and daily maximum temperatures to identify CDHW events from 1982 to 2016 over 26 climate regions across the globe. Using a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we analyze yearly occurrences of seasonal CDHW events and their association with the warm and cold phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO exhibits robust association with CDHW events over the Southern Hemisphere during the austral summer and fall, while PDO influences their occurrences over the Western North America in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, which is supported by the composites of anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and surface energy budget. However, NAO association with CDHW events is relatively weak. The CDHW occurrence over other regions is driven by a combination of these large-scale natural forcing. Our analyses also highlight that the cooccurrence of weekly to submonthly scale anomalies in the observed temperature and precipitation may not be always aligned between the observations and the reanalysis. Therefore, caution must be exercised while explaining such observed anomalies on the basis of reanalysis-based circulations and surface energy budget. Lastly, our analyses provide a new insight towards concurrent extremes and should help foster research efforts in this area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional MJO Modulation of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones Driven by Multiple Transient Controls

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is widely acknowledged for its ability to modulate Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs), but a complete understanding of the underlying mechanisms remains uncertain. Beyond established effects of the MJO's relative humidity envelope, other dynamical factors have recently been invoked via new genesis potential indices and high-resolution modeling studies. Here we revisit the ability of the MJO to modulate West Pacific TCs through a quasi-explicit cyclone downscaling strategy driven by composited observations, paired later with a genesis index to investigate regional drivers of modulation. In this work, we reveal two distinct spatial modes of TC modulation in which the MJO's dynamic and thermodynamic effects act in tandem to increase TCs. In the South China Sea, for instance, shear reductions associated with the MJO's circulation lead to increasing potential intensity ahead of the arrival of a positive humidity anomaly, all of which combine for an extended period of cyclogenesis favorability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗