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In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition↗

A hierarchal model for bacterial cell inactivation in solution by direct and indirect treatment using cold atmospheric plasmas

Cold atmospheric plasma devices have shown promise for a variety of plasma medical applications, including wound healing and bacterial inactivation often performed in liquids. In the latter application, plasma-produced reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (RONS) interact with and damage bacterial cells, though the exact mechanism by which cell damage occurs is unclear. Computational models can help elucidate relationships between plasma-produced RONS and cell killing by enabling direct comparison between dissimilar plasma devices and by examining the effects of changing operating parameters in these devices. In biological applications, computational models of plasma-liquid interactions would be most effective in design and optimization of plasma devices if there is a corresponding prediction of the biological outcome. In this work, we propose a hierarchal model for planktonic bacterial cell inactivation by plasma produced RONS in liquid. A previously developed reaction mechanism for plasma induced modification of cysteine was extended to provide a basis for cell killing by plasma-produced RONS. Results from the model are compared to literature values to provide proof of concept. Differences in time to bacterial inactivation as a function of plasma operating parameters including gas composition and plasma source configuration are discussed. Results indicate that optimizing gas-phase reactive nitrogen species production may be key in the design of plasma devices for disinfection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Computational study of tungsten and depleted uranium photoneutron targets for a 20 MeV electron linear accelerator

Neutron production can be realized with a high energy electron linear accelerator by using Bremsstrahlung and photoneutron converters. In this study, Monte Carlo N-Particle Code (MCNP) was used to evaluate potential photonuclear target designs for a high energy electron linear accelerator for applications such as neutron radiography and neutron resonance spectroscopy. A computational model was developed to inform a target design that would yield a high number of neutrons. It consists of a 20 MeV electron beam incident on a Bremsstrahlung target and a photonuclear target to generate neutrons. This computational model showed that a thickness of 0.75 inches for both tungsten and depleted uranium yields the most neutrons from photoneutron reactions. Saturation in the total number of generated neutrons was observed at over 0.75-inch thickness for both evaluated materials. Depleted uranium yielded approximately twice the number of neutrons overall compared to tungsten. The highest neutron surface flux for Depleted Uranium was 1.06 × 10-4 neutrons/cm2/source electron, and for Tungsten it was 5.12 × 10-5 neutrons/cm2/source electron. The optimal target design for this study’s application would consist of a 0.75 inch-thick block of depleted uranium with the length, width, and/or diameter varying dependent on application.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

A visco-plastic constitutive model for accurate densification and shape predictions in powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing

Powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PM-HIP) is an advanced manufacturing process that produces near net shape parts with high material utilization and uniform microstructures. Despite being used frequently to produce small-scale components, the application of PM-HIP to large-scale components is limited due to inadequate understanding of its complex mechanisms that cause unpredictable post-HIP shape distortions. A computational model can provide necessary information about the intermediate and final stages of the HIP process that can help understand it better and make accurate predictions. Generally, two types of computational models are employed for PM-HIP of metal powders, namely, plastic and visco-plastic models. Between these, the plastic model is preferred due to its cheaper calibration approach requiring less experimental data. However, the plastic model sometimes produces incorrect predictions when slight variations of the HIP conditions are encountered in practical situations. Therefore, this work presents a visco-plastic model that addresses these limitations of the plastic model. A novel modified calibration approach is employed for the visco-plastic model that utilizes less experimental data than existing approaches. With the new approach, the data requirement is same for both plastic and visco-plastic models. This also enables a quantitative comparison of plastic and visco-plastic models, which have been only qualitatively compared in the past. When calibrated with the same experimental data, both the models are found to produce similar results. In conclusion, the calibrated visco-plastic model is applied to several complex geometries, and the predictions are found to be in good agreement with experimental observations.

Hot isostatic pressing↗

A computational study of multiple jet and wall interaction

In the fuel preburner of the Space Shuttle Main Engine, face plate, injector, and baffle erosion have been observed. The observed patterns of erosion suggest that flame attachment to the walls is a contributing factor. To better understand the physical phenomena involved, a portion of the preburner was modeled computationally. The simulated 'preburner' had three two-dimensional jets entering a cavity adjacent to a baffle. The computational model employed the Patankar Spalding algorithm with upwind differencing. The turbulence model was a standard k-epsilon model with wall functions. The effects of incoming boundary conditions on turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation, k and epsilon, was studied. The results indicate a very strong sensitivity to these boundary conditions over certain ranges of values.

Campbell, W.↗

Phosphoric acid fuel cell power plant system performance model and computer program

A FORTRAN computer program was developed for analyzing the performance of phosphoric acid fuel cell power plant systems. Energy mass and electrochemical analysis in the reformer, the shaft converters, the heat exchangers, and the fuel cell stack were combined to develop a mathematical model for the power plant for both atmospheric and pressurized conditions, and for several commercial fuels.

Alkasab, K. A.↗

A computationally efficient modelling of laminar separation bubbles

The goal of this research is to accurately predict the characteristics of the laminar separation bubble and its effects on airfoil performance. To this end, a model of the bubble is under development and will be incorporated in the analysis section of the Eppler and Somers program. As a first step in this direction, an existing bubble model was inserted into the program. It was decided to address the problem of the short bubble before attempting the prediction of the long bubble. In the second place, an integral boundary-layer method is believed more desirable than a finite difference approach. While these two methods achieve similar prediction accuracy, finite-difference methods tend to involve significantly longer computer run times than the integral methods. Finally, as the boundary-layer analysis in the Eppler and Somers program employs the momentum and kinetic energy integral equations, a short-bubble model compatible with these equations is most preferable.

Maughmer, Mark D.↗

Computer-Aided Geometry Modeling

Techniques in computer-aided geometry modeling and their application are addressed. Mathematical modeling, solid geometry models, management of geometric data, development of geometry standards, and interactive and graphic procedures are discussed. The applications include aeronautical and aerospace structures design, fluid flow modeling, and gas turbine design.

John N. Shoosmith↗

Transient heat transfer and thermophysical properties measurements in low gravity

Theoretical computer models and correlations which describe phenomena important in the design of transient heat transfer systems are verified and extended. Attention is given to heat transfer to a fluid near the thermodynamic critical point, i.e., a highly compressible fluid. The validity of the computer model is tested by conducting heat-transfer experiments in a low gravity environment where gravity-driven motion is essentially eliminated. It is noted that the NASA KC135 aircraft provides a useful low-g platform for experimental work and provides valuable experience and background for experiments ultimately designed to fly on the Space Shuttle.

Giarratano, P. J.↗

A Cognitive-System Model for En Route Air Traffic Management

NASA Ames Research Center has been engaged in the development of advanced air traffic management technologies whose basic form is cognitive aiding systems for air traffic controller and flight deck operations. In the design and evaluation of such systems the dynamic interaction between the airborne aiding system and the ground-based aiding systems forms a critical coupling for control. The human operator is an integral control element in the system and the optimal integration of human decision and performance parameters with those of the automation aiding systems offers a significant challenge to cognitive engineering. This paper presents a study in full mission simulation and the development of a predictive computational model of human performance. We have found that this combination of methodologies provide a powerful design-aiding process. We have extended the computational model Man Machine Integrated Design and Analysis System (N13DAS) to include representation of multiple cognitive agents (both human operators and intelligent aiding systems), operating aircraft airline operations centers and air traffic control centers in the evolving airspace. The demands of this application require the representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, and coordinating action/intention with cooperative scheduling of goals and actions in a potentially unpredictable world of operations. The operator's activity structures have been developed to include prioritization and interruption of multiple parallel activities among multiple operators, to provide for anticipation (knowledge of the intention and action of remote operators), and to respond to failures of the system and other operators in the system in situation-specific paradigms. We have exercised this model in a multi-air traffic sector scenario with potential conflict among aircraft at and across sector boundaries. We have modeled the control situation as a multiple closed loop system. The inner and outer loop alerting structure of air traffic management has many implications that need to be investigated to assure adequate design. First, there are control and stability factors implicit in the design. As the inner loop response time approaches that of the outer loop, system stability may be compromised in that controllers may be solving a problem the nature of which has already been changed by pilot action. Second, information exchange and information presentation for both air and ground must be designed to complement as opposed to compete with each other. Third, the level of individual and shared awareness in trajectory modification and flight conformance needs to be defined. Fourth, the level of required awareness and performance impact of mixed fleet operations and failed-mode recovery must be explored.

Corker, Kevin M.↗

Verification of Space Station Secondary Power System Stability Using Design of Experiment

This paper describes analytical methods used in verification of large DC power systems with applications to the International Space Station (ISS). Large DC power systems contain many switching power converters with negative resistor characteristics. The ISS power system presents numerous challenges with respect to system stability such as complex sources and undefined loads. The Space Station program has developed impedance specifications for sources and loads. The overall approach to system stability consists of specific hardware requirements coupled with extensive system analysis and testing. Testing of large complex distributed power systems is not practical due to size and complexity of the system. Computer modeling has been extensively used to develop hardware specifications as well as to identify system configurations for lab testing. The statistical method of Design of Experiments (DoE) is used as an analysis tool for verification of these large systems. DOE reduces the number of computer runs which are necessary to analyze the performance of a complex power system consisting of hundreds of DC/DC converters. DoE also provides valuable information about the effect of changes in system parameters on the performance of the system. DoE provides information about various operating scenarios and identification of the ones with potential for instability. In this paper we will describe how we have used computer modeling to analyze a large DC power system. A brief description of DoE is given. Examples using applications of DoE to analysis and verification of the ISS power system are provided.

Karimi, Kamiar J.↗

NASA HECC Geometry and Performance Review Part 2: Geometric Differences Between the as-Manufactured and Design-Intent Impeller Geometry and Their Effects on the Vaneless Diffuser Configuration Performance

An investigation of the NASA High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor (HECC) vaneless diffuser configuration was performed. This multipart investigation focused on validating the computational model against experimental data. The validated model was then used to explore the effects of observed geometric differences between the as-manufactured and design-intent impellers. Lastly, the validated model was used for comparison against an experimental tip clearance study. Details regarding each of the parts are detailed below: This second part of a multipart investigation of the NASA HECC vaneless diffuser configuration focused on the comparison of the as-manufactured HECC vaneless computational model validated in Part I against a new model that used the same grid and solver settings but replaced the impeller section data with the design-intent sections from NASA/CR-2014-218114/Rev1. The 1D performance values showed that the as-manufactured impeller underperformed compared to the design-intent for all four speedlines that were simulated. Further investigation of radial profiles, loading and contours showed consistent underperformance of the as-manufactured. An investigation into the source of the difference led to the discovery of several geometric differences in the two impellers of magnitudes that could not be explained outside of manufacturing. The differences that were observed can be summarized into four categories: fillets, TE exit radius differences, splitter LE differences and main blade thickness differences. The investigation then shifted to attempting to isolate the geometric differences as best as possible and to understand their contribution to the observed underperformance. The investigation showed that out of the four geometric differences that were explored, the differences in the splitter blade had the largest effect.

centrifugal compressor↗

In-flight atmospheric and fuel tank temperature measurements

In order to maintain an adequate supply of aviation turbine fuels in the future, fuels may have properties different from those now currently produced. One possible change is an increase in the freezing point temperature. If this should occur, it will be necessary to know the low temperature flow characteristics of these fuels. Studies to date involved both the use of computer models and subscale fuel tank simulators. They indicate that steep temperature gradients occur near the upper and lower surfaces which can result in freezing at the bottom, even though the bulk fuel temperature is above the freezing point. In order to obtain flight data to verify computer model and simulator results, a Lockheed L1011 research aircraft at Palmdale, California was instrumented with a vertical thermocouple rake in an inboard tank and an outboard tank. The tests were conducted with one of the two instrumented tanks maintained full for either two or five hours at altitudes of at least 10668 meters (35000 ft). Other flight parameters such as Mach number, air temperature, fuel quantity, and heading were also recorded.

Svehla, R.↗

Squat Biomechanical Modeling Results from Exercising on the Hybrid Ultimate Lifting Kit

Long duration space travel will expose astronauts to extended periods of reduced gravity. Since gravity is not present to aid loading, astronauts will use resistive and aerobic exercise regimes for the duration of the space flight to minimize loss of bone density, muscle mass and aerobic capacity that occurs during exposure to a reduced gravity environment. Unlike the International Space Station (ISS), the area available for an exercise device in the next generation of spacecraft is limited and therefore compact resistance exercise device prototypes are being developed. The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) currently on the ISS is being used as a benchmark for the functional performance of these new devices. Biomechanical data collection and computational modeling aid the device design process by quantifying the joint torques and the musculoskeletal forces that occur during exercises performed on the prototype devices. The computational models currently under development utilize the OpenSim software, an open source code for musculoskeletal modeling, with biomechanical input data from test subjects for estimation of muscle and joint loads. The subjects are instrumented with reflective markers for motion capture data collection while exercising on the Hybrid Ultimate Lifting Kit (HULK) prototype device. Ground reaction force data is collected with force plates under the feet and device loading is recorded through load cells internal to the HULK. Test variables include applied device load, narrow or wide foot stance, slow or fast cadence and the harness or long bar interface between the test subject and the device. Data is also obtained using free weights for a comparison to the resistively loaded exercise device. This data is input into the OpenSim biomechanical model, which has been scaled to match the anthropometrics of the test subject, to calculate the body loads. The focus of this presentation is to summarize the results from the full squat exercises across the different test variables.

Bioengineering↗

Jet Engine Fan Blade Containment Using an Alternate Geometry

With a goal of reducing jet engine weight, simulations of a fan blade containment system with an alternate geometry were tested and analyzed. A projectile simulating a fan blade was shot at two alternate geometry containment case configurations using a gas gun. The first configuration was a flat plate representing a standard case configuration. The second configuration was a flat plate with a radially convex curve section at the impact point. The curved surface was designed to force the blade to deform plastically, dissipating energy before the full impact of the blade is received by the plate. The curved case was able to tolerate a higher impact velocity before failure. The computational model was developed and correlated with the tests and a weight savings assessment was performed. For the particular test configuration used in this study the ballistic impact velocity of the curved plate was approximately 60 m/s (200 ft/s) greater than that of the flat plate. For the computational model to successfully duplicate the test, the very high strain rate behavior of the materials had to be incorporated.

Carney, K.S.↗

Biomechanical Modeling Analysis of Loads Configuration for Squat Exercise

INTRODUCTION: Long duration space travel will expose astronauts to extended periods of reduced gravity. Since gravity is not present to assist loading, astronauts will use resistive and aerobic exercise regimes for the duration of the space flight to minimize loss of bone density, muscle mass and aerobic capacity that occurs during exposure to a reduced gravity environment. Unlike the International Space Station (ISS), the area available for an exercise device in the next generation of spacecraft for travel to the Moon or to Mars is limited and therefore compact resistance exercise device prototypes are being developed. The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) currently on the ISS is being used as a benchmark for the functional performance of these new devices. Biomechanical data collection and computational modeling aid the device design process by quantifying the joint torques and the musculoskeletal forces that occur during exercises performed on the prototype devices. METHODS The computational models currently under development utilize the OpenSim [1] software platform, consisting of open source code for musculoskeletal modeling, using biomechanical input data from test subjects for estimation of muscle and joint loads. The OpenSim Full Body Model [2] is used for all analyses. The model incorporates simplified wrap surfaces, a new knee model and updated lower body muscle parameters derived from cadaver measurements and magnetic resonance imaging of young adults. The upper body uses torque actuators at the lumbar and extremity joints. The test subjects who volunteer for this study are instrumented with reflective markers for motion capture data collection while performing squat exercising on the Hybrid Ultimate Lifting Kit (HULK) prototype device (ZIN Technologies, Middleburg Heights, OH). Ground reaction force data is collected with force plates under the feet, and device loading is recorded through load cells internal to the HULK. Test variables include the applied device load and the dual cable long bar or single cable T-bar interface between the test subject and the device. Data is also obtained using free weights with the identical loading for a comparison to the resistively loaded exercise device trials. The data drives the OpenSim biomechanical model, which has been scaled to match the anthropometrics of the test subject, to calculate the body loads. RESULTS Lower body kinematics, joint moments, joint forces and muscle forces are obtained from the OpenSim biomechanical analysis of the squat exercises under different loading conditions. Preliminary results from the model for the loading conditions will be presented as will hypotheses developed for follow on work.

Human Factors Engineering↗

Nonlinear and Failure Analysis of Composite Structures

The overall goal of this research is to assess the effect of discontinuities and uncertainties on the nonlinear response and failure of stiffened composite panels subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads. The key elements of the study are: (a) study of the effects of stiffener geometry and of transverse stresses on the response, damage initiation and propagation in stiffened composite panels; (b) use of hierarchical sensitivity coefficients to identify the major parameters that affect the response and damage in each of the different levels in the hierarchy (micromechanical, layer, panel, subcomponent and component levels); and, (c) application of fuzzy set techniques to identify the range and variation of possible responses. The computational models developed are used in conjunction with experiments to understand the physical phenomena associated with the nonlinear response and failure of stiffened composite panels. A toolkit is developed for use in conjunction with deterministic analysis programs to help the designer in assessing the effect of uncertainties in the different computational model parameters on the variability of the response quantities.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

Effect of Discontinuities and Uncertainties on the Response and Failure of Composite Structures

The overall goal of this research was to assess the effect of discontinuities and uncertainties on the nonlinear response and failure of composite structures subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads. The four key elements of the study were: (1) development of simple and efficient procedures for the accurate determination of transverse shear and transverse normal stresses in structural sandwiches as well as in unstiffened and stiffened composite panels and shells; (2) study the effects of transverse stresses on the response, damage initiation and propagation in composite and sandwich structures; (3) use of hierarchical sensitivity coefficients to identify the major parameters that affect the response and damage in each of the different levels in the hierarchy (micro-mechanical, layer, panel, subcomponent and component levels); and (4) application of fuzzy set techniques to identify the range and variation of possible responses. The computational models developed were used in conjunction with experiments, to understand the physical phenomena associated with the nonlinear response and failure of composite and sandwich structures. A toolkit was developed for use in conjunction with deterministic analysis programs to help the designer in assessing the effect of uncertainties in the different computational model parameters on the variability of the response quantities.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗