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At least 793 records · Page 44

Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (FY 2018 Data Analysis Annual Report)

The National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NSDD) has facilitated the installation of more than 3,728 radiation portal monitors (RPMs) at 660 sites in 63 countries. This collection of RPMs represents the world’s largest network of radiation detectors and provides one element of the defense-in-depth approach that supports the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture. These systems support NSDD’s mission to build partner country capability to deter, detect, and interdict the illicit transport of radiological and fissile material through strategic points of entry and exit at seaports, airports, and border crossings.NSDD works collaboratively with partner countries and international organizations to optimize the operation of these RPMs. The large amount of data provided by NSDD partner countries (summarized in the banner to the right) highlights the close cooperation and partnerships NSDD has built with 63 countries around the world. Thirty-two of these countries shared at least some RPM-related data with NSDD in fiscal year (FY) 2018. This significant level of data sharing is a key element that distinguishes the NSDD office as unique among nuclear nonproliferation programs and initiatives: NSDD can provide specific, objective, data-driven decisions and support for sustaining the radiation detection systems it helped deploy. This data analysis report summarizes and aggregates the RPM data provided to the NSDD office for analysis and review in FY 2018.The data can be used to describe RPM performance and characterize the wide diversity of NSDD deployment sites. For example, NSDD deploys detector systems across sites with natural background radiation levels that can vary by a factor of up to nine from site to site. Some RPM lanes have few occupancies, whereas others have up to approximately 8,000 occupancies per day, and the different types of cargo traveling through a site can result in site-wide alarm rates that range from near 0% at some sites to above 3% at others. Based on the data received, the global average uptime for NSDD RPMs was 97% for FY 2018. NSDD takes all these factors into account in making recommendations to partner countries on how to most effectively manage and maintain site operations. NSDD utilizes reports and other information products created by ORNL Radiation Inspection Systems Team (RIST) data analysts to efficiently allocate the resources needed to detect and ultimately interdict illicit nuclear and radiological material.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Dynamic Braking System of a Tidal Generator

Renewable energy generation has experienced significant cost reductions during the past decades, and it has become more accepted by the global population. In the beginning, wind generation dominated the development and deployment of renewable energy; however, during recent decades, photovoltaic (PV) generation has grown at a very significant pace due to the tremendous decrease in the cost of PV modules. The focus on renewable energy generation has now expanded to include new types with promising future applications, such as river and tidal generation. The input water flow to these types of resources is more predictable than wind or solar generation. The data used in this paper is representative of a typical river or tidal generator. The analysis is based on a generator with a power rating of 40 kW. The tidal generator under consideration is driven by two sets of helical turbines connected to each side of the generator located in between the turbines. The generator is operated in variable speed, and it is controlled to maximize the energy harvested as well as the operation of the turbine generator. The electrical system consists of a three-phase permanent magnet generator connected to a three-phase passive rectifier. The output of the rectifier is connected to a DC-DC converter to match the rectifier output to the DC bus voltage of the DC-AC inverter. The three-phase inverter is connected to the grid, and it is controlled to provide a good interface with the grid. One important aspect of river and tidal generation is the braking mechanism. In a tidal generator, the braking mechanism is important to avoid a runaway condition in case the connection to the grid is lost when there is a fault in the lines. A runaway condition may lead to an overspeed condition and cause extreme stresses on the turbine blade structure and eventual disintegration of the mechanical structure. In this paper, the concept of the dynamic braking system is developed and investigated for normal and abnormal operations. The main objective is to optimize the performance under emergency braking while designing the system to be as simple as possible to avoid overdesigning the power electronics or exceeding the target budget.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Solar Performance Insight (Final Report)

The PV Operations and Maintenance (O&M) service industry lacks an affordable, well-documented, intuitive PV modeling and analytics tool to calculate modeled performance from actual data from multiple data acquisition systems (DAS). We envision a performance modeling and analytics platform built on open-source, extensible, community-maintained code. The key innovation is the community-driven development of pvlib python delivered through a lightweight web service to provide configurable, consistent and reproducible PV modeling for O&M providers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Comparing Constant and Transient Membrane Transport Parameters for Use in Wave Desalination Models

Directly pressurizing seawater for desalination with reverse osmosis membranes via wave motion is a promising and sustainable method for producing freshwater in coastal regions. However, such a system could result in significant pressure fluctuations and a departure from conventional steady-state desalination operations. This study sought to assess if membrane transport parameters (apparent water and salt permeability) should be modeled as transient or constant in solution–diffusion-based modeling efforts of dynamically operated desalination systems, such as those coupled to wave power. Two approaches were used to model membrane transport parameters: one considered each parameter to be a function of the net driving pressure of the system, and the other assumed they were constant across all conditions. A pilot-scale system was used to conduct steady-state and controlled ramping experiments. Data from steady-state experiments were used to calculate transient and constant transport parameters. Parameter combinations were used in a simulation model to predict water flux and effective permeate salinity, and simulation outcomes were compared against experimental ramping results. The transient relationships for both water and salt permeability produced the most accurate results for water flux and comparable results for effective permeate salinity. Development of such relationships would be unique to a specific system but could be valuable in modeling wave-driven desalination systems across the wide range of operating conditions they experience.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Large-Eddy Simulation Study of Flow and Combustion Dynamics in a Full-Scale Hydrogen–Air Rotating Detonation Combustor-Stator Integrated System

In the present work, a first-of-its-kind three-dimensional (3D) large-eddy simulation (LES) study is conducted to numerically investigate the combustion dynamics as well as aero-thermal phenomena in a full-scale nonpremixed hydrogen–air rotating detonation engine (RDE) (with a diverging-shaped lower-end wall), when integrated with nozzle guide vanes (NGV) acting as the turbine stator. The wall-modeled LES framework incorporates hydrogen–air detailed chemical kinetics and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). A comparative analysis is carried out for two operating conditions with different fuel/air mass flow rates but global equivalence ratio of unity, and considering RDE configurations without and with stator. The LES model is validated against available experimental data for the low mass flux condition with respect to detonation wave speed/height, wave dynamics, and axial static pressure distribution. Numerical results indicate significant deflagrative combustion occurring in the fill region near the inner wall due to formation of recirculation zones in the injection near-field driven by the backward facing step. The leading detonation wave is found to be trailed by an azimuthal reflected-shock combustion (ARSC) wave, consistent with experimental observations, which consumes unburned vitiated reactants that leak through the main detonation wave. The main detonation wave characteristics, such as detonation wave speed/height and combustion efficiency, do not change appreciably with the presence of NGV. A novel combustion diagnostic technique based on chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) is employed to quantify the fraction of heat release occurring in the detonative mode versus deflagrative mode for the simulated conditions. The exit flow is found to be nearly fully subsonic and supersonic for the low and high mass flux conditions, respectively. Further analysis of the exit flow profiles shows that the presence of NGV renders the flow more axial and significantly impacts the exit Mach number and total pressure, while the total temperature shows negligible change. In addition, the low mass flux operating point, despite exhibiting more deflagrative losses within the combustor, yields overall lower pressure drop from plenum to exhaust, which is mainly attributed to lower pressure drop across the injectors. Lastly, the rotating detonation engine-nozzle guide vanes (RDE-NGV) configuration exhibits higher total pressure loss compared to rotating detonation engine (RDE) without stator across both the mass flux conditions. In conclusion, this study extends the state-of-the-art in numerical modeling of pressure gain combustion (PGC) systems by demonstrating high-fidelity 3D reacting LES of full-scale RDE-NGV systems relevant to RDE-turbine integration for stationary power generation.

Combustion↗

Electron Target Cooling Analyses of the KIPT ADS Using MCNP and Ansys Fluent

This study presents multiphysics analyses of the electron target cooling system of the accelerator-driven system (ADS) of the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology (KIPT) using MCNP and Fluent computer programs. MCNP has been used to transport electrons, gammas, and neutrons, and to calculate the energy deposition in the target materials. The MCNP mesh-tally data have been imported into Fluent by a C subroutine that has been compiled and linked to Fluent as a user-defined function.The KIPT ADS is located in Ukraine and was in operation until February 2022. The Fluent model is based on the computer-aided design files from the manufacturing process of the target assembly. Here, the Fluent results for the reference case match very well the literature results obtained by STAR-CCM+ during the design phase. Other cases that differ from the reference one have been analyzed; in these cases, it is assumed a malfunction of the electron accelerator or of the water cooling system. The target cooling system operates normally for all the analyzed cases except when the inlet water mass flow rate is decreased. The transient analysis showed that the target cooling system can operate for 180 s with full power when the inlet water mass flow rate is decreased down by 75%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Scale effects on core design, fuel costs, and spent fuel volume of pressurized water reactors

The desire to improve the economic competitiveness and deployment pace of nuclear energy through modularization, manufacturing, and series production had led to the development of smaller size reactors. As the standard 17x17 fuel technology is mainly maintained in the pressurized water reactors (PWRs) category, this translates into a lower number of fuel assemblies in the core and sometimes a reduced fuel height. To assess the impact of such scale change in core design on fuel cycle cost and spent fuel volume, a scoping analysis tool is developed based on infinite lattice calculations, leakage, fuel management reduced models, and levelized unit cost of electricity (LCOE) estimate. As such, cost dynamics driven by fuel specific power, burnup, core leakage, feed, cycle length, fuel assembly height as well as uranium market data are captured with consistent set of assumptions and analysis methods. A selection of 5 reactor designs representative of leading PWR developers is assessed and compared. Pursuing higher specific powers and optimal burnups are highlighted as the main fuel cost reduction drivers, nevertheless, practical limitations and opportunities must be evaluated to establish the feasibility of such enhanced fuel operation. In consequence, a detailed core design is performed using SIMULATE3 code for 5 PWR variations including natural and forced coolant circulation modes, two reactor scales, power densities of 73, 112, and 123 kW/l and higher discharge burnups. Design and optimization are performed at the lattice level, for the reflector, and at the core loading level. Satisfactory steady-state operation including power distribution, coolant operating limits, and reactivity requirements are analyzed and reported in this paper. The fuel economics of the detailed core designs confirm the scoping analysis findings. Despite the unlocked power uprates in small PWRs, the achievable burnup for a given fuel specific power requires more enrichment and shorter fuel height results in higher fabrication costs per mass of fuel, which makes scaling down core size a more expensive endeavor on the fuel cycle front. Spent fuel volumes are reported for the PWRs designed in this paper. Furthermore, these volumes are driven by the core average discharge burnup regardless of the scale in consideration. Additional cost and core performance aspects related to heavy reflector gains, fuel-reflector substitution, and disposal cost policy in the U.S. are examined.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data-Driven Dynamic Modeling in Power Systems: A Fresh Look on Inverter-Based Resource Modeling

Here, this article introduces ways to identify dynamic system models using measurement data. In power system analysis, a static model represents the time-invariant input-output relationship of a system, while a dynamic model describes the behavior of the system over time. For example, how will a system transit from one steady-state operation point to another?

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multifold Insights for Power System Dynamics From Data Assimilation: Meeting Current Challenges

The world’s electric power grids have evolved over the last 120 years from a single power line to today’s large networks. The evolution will continue at an accelerated rate with extensive smart grid development worldwide. Here for example, the U.S. government has set a goal of reaching 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035, while the Department of Energy (DOE) shared a goal to deploy 30 GW and 110 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 2050, respectively. To meet such ambitious goals, in the years to come, a significant percentage of electricity will come from intermittent renewable sources, electric vehicles (EVs), and be supplied to a vast number of loads that will actively respond to grid conditions and incentive signals. This development is largely driven by environmental and economic factors, such as reducing carbon emissions and saving electricity cost for consumers. These energy resources lead to new uncertain behaviors and dynamics which the grid has never seen and were not considered in its design. Operating such a dynamic grid with sufficient reliability and efficiency is a monumental challenge.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Affinity propagation clustering of full-field, high-spatial-dimensional measurements for robust output-only modal identification: A proof-of-concept study

Determination of the model order is a challenging problem in system identification, especially in output-only or operational modal identification where some modes are weakly excited. While existing methods such as the stabilization diagram method (spectral information) are effective, they do not scale to high-dimensional data, which is usually needed for high-fidelity characterization of structural dynamics and has been made available in the emerging full-field measurement techniques using optical methods such as photogrammetry and laser vibrometers. In this proof-of-concept study we present a new non-parametric, data-driven approach for robust output-only identification of high-spatial-dimensional modal parameters of basic structures by efficiently processing and interactively exploiting the full-field measurement (i.e., very dense spatial measurement points). Specifically, we first over-estimate the system model once, producing a pool of candidate modes associated with their modal frequencies and full-field, high-spatial-dimensional mode shapes. This is accomplished by a data-driven method termed affinity propagation clustering (APC), where the active clusters, which are the active modes in our formulations, emerge from the "message-passing" procedure and does not require a pre-determination of the cluster number (mode or model order). Next, rather than using the spectral information to distinguish the physical and spurious modes in the stabilization diagram method, we exploit and visualize the spatial, full-field mode shape associated with each candidate mode to do so. We conduct extensive experiments on basic structural models with comparisons to a few existing methods. The results indicate that the new method is computationally efficient for identifying high-spatial-dimensional modal parameters, and robust to identify weak modes by exploiting the full-field measurement. We also discuss its applicability and limitations for structures with complex geometry (shapes).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Root Cause Analysis of Degradation in Protonic Ceramic Electrochemical Cell with Interfacial Electrical Sensors Using Data‐Driven Machine Learning

Abstract Protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCECs) offer promising paths for energy storage and conversion. Despite considerable achievements made, PCECs still face challenges such as physiochemical compatibility between componenets and suboptimal solid–solid contact at the interfaces between the electrolytes and electrodes. In this study, a novel approach is proposed that combines in situ electrochemical characterization of interfacial electrical sensor embedded PCECs and machine learning to quantify the contributions of different cell components to total degradation, as well as to predict the remaining useful life. The experimental results suggest that the overpotential induced by the oxygen electrode is 48% less than that of oxygen electrode/electrolyte interfacial contact for up to 1171 h. The data‐driven machine learning simulation predicts the RUL of up to 2132 h. The root cause of degradation is overpotential increase induced by oxygen electrode, which accounts for 82.9% of total cell degradation. The success of the failure diagnostic model is demonstrated by its consistency with degradation modes that do not manifest in electrolysis fade during early real operations. This synergistic approach provides valuable insights into practical failure diagnosis of PCECs and has the potential to revolutionize their development by enabling improved performance prediction and material selection for enhanced durability and efficiency.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Explainable machine learning model for multi-step forecasting of reservoir inflow with uncertainty quantification

We propose an explainable machine learning (ML) model with uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting. Traditional ML methods have challenges in forecasting inflows multiple days ahead, and lack explainability and UQ. To address these limitations, we introduce an encoder–decoder long short-term memory (ED-LSTM) network for multi-step forecasting, employ the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) technique for understanding the influence of hydrometeorological factors on inflow prediction, and develop a novel UQ method for prediction trustworthiness. We apply these methods to forecast 7-day inflow in snow-dominant and rain-driven reservoirs. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ED-LSTM model, with high forecasting accuracy for short lead times. Our UQ method provides reliable uncertainty estimates, covering 90% of data with a 90% confidence level. The SHAP analysis reveals the importance of historical inflow and precipitation as influential factors. These findings and methods may support reservoir operators in optimizing water resources management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spherical tokamak physics research in preparation for the operation of NSTX-U

The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) is preparing to resume operation, representing a crucial step toward realizing compact, cost-effective fusion pilot plants. In advance of this, extensive modeling and data analysis have been conducted to advance the physics basis for low-aspect-ratio, high-performance plasma regimes, focusing on three core objectives: confinement and stability, power and particle handling, and steady-state operation. Significant progress has been made in understanding the electron temperature flattening in high-β plasmas, which is shown to be driven by a complex interplay of magnetohydrodynamic instabilities (e.g. non-resonant infernal modes), fast-ion-driven Alfvén eigenmodes, and electron and ion-scale micro-instabilities, particularly Kinetic Ballooning Modes (KBMs), whose destabilization is strongly dependent on parallel magnetic field fluctuations (δB ∥ ). Furthermore, a new gyrokinetic critical pedestal model was developed, accurately predicting pedestal structure by identifying KBMs as the primary stability limit, offering a critical constraint for future high-confinement scenarios. To address the challenge of high heat flux, novel liquid lithium plasma-facing components were modeled. The analysis confirmed that lithium vapor shielding is a self-regulating mechanism for heat mitigation, while also emphasizing that strong main ion parallel flow is essential to minimize core lithium contamination. Finally, progress toward steady-state operation was anchored by developing the required physics basis and control tools. This includes predictive modeling for reversed magnetic shear sustainment, demonstrating that magnetic island-induced bootstrap current reduction is negligible in STs, and advancing real-time control and disruption avoidance capabilities. The development of high-speed surrogate models (e.g. MMMNet) provides computationally efficient tools vital for non-inductive scenario optimization and integrated, low-disruptivity operations planned for NSTX-U.

NSTX-U↗

Harnessing large language models’ zero-shot and few-shot learning capabilities for regulatory research

Abstract Large language models (LLMs) are sophisticated AI-driven models trained on vast sources of natural language data. They are adept at generating responses that closely mimic human conversational patterns. One of the most notable examples is OpenAI's ChatGPT, which has been extensively used across diverse sectors. Despite their flexibility, a significant challenge arises as most users must transmit their data to the servers of companies operating these models. Utilizing ChatGPT or similar models online may inadvertently expose sensitive information to the risk of data breaches. Therefore, implementing LLMs that are open source and smaller in scale within a secure local network becomes a crucial step for organizations where ensuring data privacy and protection has the highest priority, such as regulatory agencies. As a feasibility evaluation, we implemented a series of open-source LLMs within a regulatory agency’s local network and assessed their performance on specific tasks involving extracting relevant clinical pharmacology information from regulatory drug labels. Our research shows that some models work well in the context of few- or zero-shot learning, achieving performance comparable, or even better than, neural network models that needed thousands of training samples. One of the models was selected to address a real-world issue of finding intrinsic factors that affect drugs' clinical exposure without any training or fine-tuning. In a dataset of over 700 000 sentences, the model showed a 78.5% accuracy rate. Our work pointed to the possibility of implementing open-source LLMs within a secure local network and using these models to perform various natural language processing tasks when large numbers of training examples are unavailable.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Data driven drift correction for complex optical systems

To exploit the thousand-fold increase in spectral brightness of modern light sources, increasingly intricate experiments are being conducted that demand extremely precise beam trajectory. Maintaining the optimal trajectory over several hours of an experiment with the needed precision necessitates active drift control. Here, we outline time varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO) as a data driven approach for robust drift correction, and illustrate its application for a split and delay optical system composed of six crystals and twelve input dimensions. Using numerical simulations, we exhibit the application of TVBO for linear drift, non-smooth temporal drift as well as constrained TVBO for multi-objective control settings, representing real-life operating conditions. This approach can be easily adapted to other X-ray beam conditioning and guidance systems, including multi-crystal monochromators and grazing-incidence mirrors, to maintain sub-micrometer and nanoradian beam stability over the course of an experiment spanning several hours.

Bayesian optimization↗

Enabling AI in synthetic biology through Construction File specification

The Construction File (CF) specification establishes a standardized interface for molecular biology operations, laying a foundation for automation and enhanced efficiency in experiment design. It is implemented across three distinct software projects: PyDNA_CF_Simulator, a Python project featuring a ChatGPT plugin for interactive parsing and simulating experiments; ConstructionFileSimulator, a field-tested Java project that showcases 'Experiment' objects expressed as flat files; and C6-Tools, a JavaScript project integrated with Google Sheets via Apps Script, providing a user-friendly interface for authoring and simulation of CF. The CF specification not only standardizes and modularizes molecular biology operations but also promotes collaboration, automation, and reuse, significantly reducing potential errors. The potential integration of CF with artificial intelligence, particularly GPT-4, suggests innovative automation strategies for synthetic biology. While challenges such as token limits, data storage, and biosecurity remain, proposed solutions promise a way forward in harnessing AI for experiment design. This shift from human-driven design to AI-assisted workflows, steered by high-level objectives, charts a potential future path in synthetic biology, envisioning an environment where complexities are managed more effectively.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

From Count Rates to Quantifying Isotopic Activities – Field Analysis of Radiation Monitoring Data

The Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) provides a comprehensive bicoastal radiological and nuclear emergency response to United States Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration. A major part of the support is to provide systematic radiological search for lost or stolen sources, Radiological search is a core competency of the NNSS with its origin dating back to nuclear weapons test era. Search operations from multiple platforms is the common thread among the various NNSS assets, which include Aerial Measuring System (AMS), Maritime Support Team (MST), National Capitol Response (NCR), National Search Team (NST) and Radiological Assistance Program (RAP). Information collected and analyzed during search operations add to the actionable intelligence for the law enforcement agencies and provide valuable guidance for the tactical resolution of a nuclear or radiological crisis. Search is an intelligence and situational awareness driven operation and most often called upon during a radiological emergency, however it can be brought into play to thwart a potential threat by providing monitoring and surveillance support. The Office of Nuclear Incident Response (NA-84) serves as the technical leader in responding to and resolving nuclear and radiological threats worldwide and integrates its efforts with other NNSA stakeholders (e.g., NNSA office of Defense Nuclear Non-proliferation NA-22). The response includes expertise in the areas of radiological search, render safe, and consequence management. This article will discuss the methodologies, tools, procedures, and techniques to extract maximum radiological characterization information (isotopic composition, activities for individual isotopes, threat assessment etc.) from field monitoring or Search operation data.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Data-Driven Day-Ahead PV Estimation Using Hybrid Deep Learning

Ongoing smart grid activities and associated automation resulted in rich set of data. Here, these data can be utilized for monitoring and estimation of real time photovoltaic (PV) generation. Inherent variability in PV and related impact on power systems is a challenging problem. Improving the accuracy of PV generation estimation is beneficial for both the PV owners and the grid operators. Recently, deep learning algorithms possible by the availability of data have shown its advantages for time series estimation; however, its application on PV generation estimation is still in the early stage. In this paper, a hybrid estimation model with a combination of long-short-term-memory network (LSTM) and persistence model (PM) is developed to provide day-ahead PV estimation at 15-minute time interval with high accuracy and robustness. Simulation results show the superior performance of the proposed method over existing methods for most of the test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗