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DOE OSTI2026

The Optical and Infrared Are Connected

Galaxies are often modeled as composites of separable components with distinct spectral signatures, implying that different wavelength ranges are only weakly correlated. They are not. We present a data-driven model that exploits subtle correlations between physical processes to accurately predict infrared (IR) Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) photometry from a neural summary of optical Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectra. The model achieves accuracies of $χ^{2}_{N} ≈ 1$ for all photometric bands in WISE, as well as good colors. We are able to tightly constrain typically IR-derived properties, e.g., the bolometric luminosities of active galactic nuclei (AGN) and dust parameters such as q PAH . We also test whether current spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting methods reproduce such panchromatic relations, but find their predictions biased and overconfident, likely due to model misspecification, with correlated biases in star-formation rates (SFRs) and AGN luminosities being most evident. To help improve SED models, we determine which features of the optical spectrum are responsible for our improved predictions, and identify several lines (Ca II , Sr II , Fe I , [O II ], and Hα), which point to the complex chronology of star formation and chemical enrichment being incorrectly modeled.

Jespersen, Christian Kragh [Princeton Univ., NJ (U↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

QuantifyML: How Good is My Machine Learning Model?

We present QuantifyML, which applies model counting to assess the learn ability, safety, and robustness of machine learning models. Typically, the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test datasets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. With QuantifyML we aim to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into aC program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise countsw.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, ex-pressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the safety and robustness of trained models.

Deep Neural Networks↗

NASA NTRS1988

Turbulent diffusivity

A method for determining the turbulent diffusivity tensor is proposed which has application to problems such as the mixing in the interior of the sun for the solar neutrino problem, the chemical evolution of the galaxy, and grain sedimentation on the primitive solar nebula. A model for determining the turbulent energy spectral function, the eddy decorrelation rate, and the growth rate of the underlying instability is discussed. Good agreement is obtained between the present values for the coefficient of turbulent diffusivity and those obtained from both numerical simulation studies and laboratory data on shear turbulence.

Canuto, V. M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Effect of EMIC Wave Normal Angle Distribution on Relativistic Electron Scattering Based on the Newly Developed Self-consistent RC/EMIC Waves Model by Khazanov et al. [2006]

It is well known that the effects of EMIC waves on RC ion and RB electron dynamics strongly depend on such particle/wave characteristics as the phase-space distribution function, frequency, wave-normal angle, wave energy, and the form of wave spectral energy density. Therefore, realistic characteristics of EMIC waves should be properly determined by modeling the RC-EMIC waves evolution self-consistently. Such a selfconsistent model progressively has been developing by Khaznnov et al. [2002-2006]. It solves a system of two coupled kinetic equations: one equation describes the RC ion dynamics and another equation describes the energy density evolution of EMIC waves. Using this model, we present the effectiveness of relativistic electron scattering and compare our results with previous work in this area of research.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Conductance of Ion Channels - Theory vs. Experiment

Transmembrane ion channels mediate a number of essential physiological processes in a cell ranging from regulating osmotic pressure to transmission of neural signals. Kinetics and selectivity of ion transport is of critical importance to a cell and, not surprisingly, it is a subject of numerous experimental and theoretical studies. In this presentation we will analyze in detail computer simulations of two simple channels from fungi - antiamoebin and trichotoxin. Each of these channels is made of an alpha-helical bundle of small, nongenomically synthesized peptides containing a number of rare amino acids and exhibits strong antimicrobial activity. We will focus on calculating ionic conductance defined as the ratio of ionic current through the channel to applied voltage. From molecular dynamics simulations, conductance can be calculated in at least two ways, each involving different approximations. Specifically, the current, given as the number of charges transferred through the channel per unit of time, can be obtained from the number of events in which ions cross the channel during the simulation. This method works well for large currents (high conductance values and/or applied voltages). If the number of crossing events is small, reliable estimates of current are difficult to achieve. Alternatively, conductance can be estimated assuming that ion transport can be well approximated as diffusion in the external potential given by the free energy profile. Then, the current can be calculated by solving the one-dimensional diffusion equation in this external potential and applied voltage (the generalized Nernst-Planck equation). To do so three ingredients are needed: the free energy profile, the position-dependent diffusion coefficient and the diffusive flux of ions into the channel. All these quantities can be obtained from molecular dynamics simulations. An important advantage of this method is that it can be used equally well to estimating large and small currents. In addition, once the free energy profile becomes available the full current-voltage dependence can be readily obtained. For both channels we carried out calculations using both approaches. We also tested the main assumptions underlying the diffusive model, such as uncorrelated nature of individual crossing events and Fickian diffusion. The accuracy and consistency of different methods will be discussed. Finally we will discuss how comparisons between calculated and measured ionic conductance and selectivity of transport can be used for determining structural models of the channels.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Instrument for the MAVEN Mission

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution Mission (MAVEN) will explore the variability in the planet's upper atmosphere and ionosphere that is dominated by interactions with the sun, specifically the high-energy photons in the soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths as well as interactions with the solar wind. Scientists will use MAVEN data to determine the current loss rate of volatile compounds from the Mars atmosphere, then extrapolate back in time in order to give historical estimations of state of the Mars atmosphere and climate, its ability to sustain liquid water, and the potential for the Martian habitability. The EUV instrument is critical in measuring the Space Weather driver of this atmospheric variability. It will directly observe a three EUV wavelength ranges and their variability due to solar flares (time scales of seconds to hours) as well as active region evolution (months), which will then act as proxies for a model to determine the entire 0.1-200 nm solar spectrum at all times during the MAVEN mission. These EUV measurements and models results will compliment the other instruments that will provide direct in-situ as well as remote sensing observations of the Martian atmospheric response to this solar driver. This presentation will be an introduction of this instrument and its science measurements and goals to the larger community, as well as a status report on its progress.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Static and wind tunnel near-field/far-field jet noise measurements from model scale single-flow base line and suppressor nozzles. Summary report

A test program was conducted in the Boeing large anechoic test chamber and the NASA-Ames 40- by 80-foot wind tunnel to study the near- and far-field jet noise characteristics of six baseline and suppressor nozzles. Static and wind-on noise source locations were determined. A technique for extrapolating near field jet noise measurements into the far field was established. It was determined if flight effects measured in the near field are the same as those in the far field. The flight effects on the jet noise levels of the baseline and suppressor nozzles were determined. Test models included a 15.24-cm round convergent nozzle, an annular nozzle with and without ejector, a 20-lobe nozzle with and without ejector, and a 57-tube nozzle with lined ejector. The static free-field test in the anechoic chamber covered nozzle pressure ratios from 1.44 to 2.25 and jet velocities from 412 to 594 m/s at a total temperature of 844 K. The wind tunnel flight effects test repeated these nozzle test conditions with ambient velocities of 0 to 92 m/s.

Jaeck, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A noise source identification technique using an inverse Helmholtz integral equation method

A technique is developed which utilizes numerical models and field pressure information to characterize acoustic fields and identify acoustic sources. The numerical models are based on boundary element numerical procedures. Either pressure, velocity, or passive boundary conditions, in the form of impedance boundary conditions, may be imposed on the numerical model. Alternatively, if no boundary information is known, a boundary condition can be left unspecified. Field pressure data may be specified to overdetermine the numerical problem. The problem is solved numerically for the complete sound field from which the acoustic sources may be determined. The model can then be used to idenfify acoustic intensity paths in the field. The solution can be modified and the model used to evaluate design alternatives. In this investigation the method is tested analytically and verified. In addition, the sensitivity of the method to random and bias error in the input data is demonstrated.

Gardner, B. K.↗

NASA NTRS1946

Free-Spinning Tunnel Tests of a 1/20-Scale Model of the Chance Vought XF6U-1 Airplane, TED No. NACA 2390

A spin investigation has been conducted in the Langley 20-foot free-spinning tunnel on a 1/20-scale model of the Chance Vought XF6U-1 airplane, The effects of control settings and movements upon the erect and inverted spin and recovery characteristics of the model were determined for the normal-fighter condition. The investigation also included tests for the take-off fighter condition (wing-tip tanks plus fuel added) spin-recovery parachutes, and simulated pilot escape. In general, for the normal-fighter condition, the model was extremely oscillatory in roll, pitch, and yaw. The angles of the fuselage varied from extremely flat to inverted attitudes, and the model rotated with the rudder in a series of short turns and glides. Recoveries by rudder reversal were rapid but the model would immediately go into a spin in the other direction. Recoveries by merely neutralizing the rudder were satisfactory when the elevator and ailerons were set to neutral, the ensuing flight path being a steep glide. Thus, it is recommended that all controls be neutralized for safe recovery from spins obtained on the airplane. With the external wing-tip tanks installed, the spins were somewhat less oscillatory in roll but recovery could not be obtained unless full-down elevator was used in conjunction with the rudder. If a spin is entered inadvertently with the full-scale airplane with external wing-tip tanks installed and if recovery is not imminent after a recovery attempt is made, it is recommended that the tanks be jettisoned and the controls neutralized.

Klinar, Walter J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analytical population dynamics underlying harmful algal blooms triggered by prey avoidance

A modified version of the NPZD ecosystem model is used to analytically examine the effects of predation avoidance, a possible mechanism for triggering harmful algal blooms (HAB). To resolve HAB development caused by predation avoidance, an additional phytoplankton functional group is considered, one that has slower nutrient uptake and better predation avoidance characteristics than the non-harmful phytoplankton group used in traditional NPZD models. Because the two phytoplankton groups (one non-harmful and one HAB) compete for only one resource within the same system, steady state (equilibrium) conditions cannot occur without the presence of zooplankton; only the non-harmful phytoplankton group, which defeats the HAB group in the resource competition, can survive in the equilibrium. The presence of sufficient zooplankton effectively acts to replenish the nutrient pool by consuming the non-harmful phytoplankton. When this occurs, two equilibrium states are found: one with both phytoplankton groups coexisting, and one that only includes the HAB group. Further, the condition required for equilibrium is that the total nitrogen within the system should be larger than a threshold determined by model coefficients. The threshold and feasibility of the equilibrium are sensitive to the relative HAB predation avoidance coefficient. If the coefficient is larger than the ratio of net growth rates between the HAB and non-harmful phytoplankton group, the threshold becomes infinite, and an equilibrium is not feasible. The time scale for the system to reach an equilibrium state that includes a HAB group is determined asymptotically. The dependence of a threshold condition as a controlling factor may explain the regime shift of dominant species causing HABs. The ecosystem model is fully implemented into the Regional Ocean Modeling System and applied to an idealized coastal embayment (with depths and geometry taken from San Francisco Bay) to show numerically the dominance of prey avoidance dynamics in a natural shallow water environment that includes advection and diffusion. The analytical results improve strategies for HAB modeling and provide guidance for setting model coefficients necessary to resolve a HAB event.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Geochemistry and Multiomics Data Differentiate Streams in Pennsylvania Based on Unconventional Oil and Gas Activity

Unconventional oil and gas (UOG) extraction is increasing exponentially around the world, as new technological advances have provided cost-effective methods to extract hard-to-reach hydrocarbons. While UOG has increased the energy output of some countries, past research indicates potential impacts in nearby stream ecosystems as measured by geochemical and microbial markers. Here, we utilized a robust data set that combines 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing (DNA), metatranscriptomics (RNA), geochemistry, and trace element analyses to establish the impact of UOG activity in 21 sites in northern Pennsylvania. These data were also used to design predictive machine learning models to determine the UOG impact on streams. We identified multiple biomarkers of UOG activity and contributors of antimicrobial resistance within the order Burkholderiales. Furthermore, we identified expressed antimicrobial resistance genes, land coverage, geochemistry, and specific microbes as strong predictors of UOG status. Of the predictive models constructed (n = 30), 15 had accuracies higher than expected by chance and area under the curve values above 0.70. The supervised random forest models with the highest accuracy were constructed with 16S rRNA gene profiles, metatranscriptomics active microbial composition, metatranscriptomics active antimicrobial resistance genes, land coverage, and geochemistry (n = 23). The models identified the most important features within those data sets for classifying UOG status. These findings identified specific shifts in gene presence and expression, as well as geochemical measures, that can be used to build robust models to identify impacts of UOG development.

16S rRNA↗

DOE OSTI2023

Synchronization of Alternative Models in a Supermodel and the Learning of Critical Behavior

“Supermodeling” climate by allowing different models to assimilate data from one another in run time has been shown to give results superior to those of any one model and superior to any weighted average of model outputs. The only free parameters, connection strengths between corresponding variables in each pair of models, are determined using some form of machine learning. It is demonstrated that supermodeling succeeds because near critical states, interscale interactions are important but unresolved processes cannot be effectively represented diagnostically in any single parameterization scheme. In two examples, a pair of toy quasigeostrophic (QG) channel models of the midlatitudes and a pair of ECHAM5 models of the tropical Pacific atmosphere with a common ocean, supermodels dynamically combine parameterization schemes so as to capture criticality, associated critical structures, and the supporting scale interactions. The QG supermodeling scheme extends a previous configuration in which two such models synchronize with intermodel connections only between medium-scale components of the flow; here the connections are trained against a third “real” model. Intermittent blocking patterns characterize the critical behavior thus obtained, even where such patterns are missing in the constituent models. In the ECHAM-based climate supermodel, the corresponding critical structure is the single ITCZ pattern, a pattern that occurs in neither of the constituent models. In conclusion, for supermodels of both types, power spectra indicate enhanced interscale interactions in frequency or energy ranges of physical interest, in agreement with observed data, and supporting a generalized form of the self-organized criticality hypothesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of a High-Confinement Tidal Energy Array (Abstract)

When the projected area of a current turbine array occupies a substantial fraction of a tidal or river channel cross-sectional area, the confinement associated with the channel boundaries substantially increases turbine efficiency. This effect can be exploited to substantially reduce the levelized cost of energy for current turbine arrays. However, the presence of such an array will affect inflow velocity, water depth, and circulation in the surrounding area. This has implications for array performance and environmental impacts. This project combines existing numerical modeling capability from PNNL with an understanding of confined array performance from UW. The work will 1) Simulate tidal currents and water surface elevation in a regional circulation model that includes the Knik Arm site at appropriate resolution; 2) Incorporate a varying thrust coefficient into this model that reflects the outcomes of tidal hydrodynamic simulations of confined turbine arrays; 3) Use the model to determine the effects of array operation on water levels and inflow conditions as a function of different blockage ratios and control strategies; and 4) Identify the “far field” environmental implications of operating an array of this type. UW will use the outputs from this model to evaluate the implications of “feedback effects” and variable inflow conditions on levelized cost of energy estimates for a confinement exploiting array of cross-flow turbines.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Abundances and Transients from Neutron Star–White Dwarf Mergers

Abstract We systematically investigate the mergers of neutron star–white dwarf binaries from beginning to end, with a focus on the properties of the inflows and outflows in accretion disks and their electromagnetic emissions. Using population synthesis models, we determine a subset of these binaries in which the white dwarf companion undergoes unstable mass transfer and complete tidal disruption, forming a large accretion disk around the neutron star. The material evolves according to a one-dimensional advection-dominated accretion-disk model with nuclear burning, neutrino emissions, and disk-surface wind ejection. The extreme dynamics of the entire process have proven difficult to analyze, and thus currently, the properties are poorly understood. The outflows from the mergers are iron- and nickel-rich, giving rise to optical and infrared emissions powered by the decay of the radioactive iron-type isotopes, calculated via the SuperNu light-curve code. We find these systems capable of powering bright, yet short-lived, optical transients with the potential to power gamma-ray bursts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

A Management Information System Model for Program Management

The development of a model to simulate the information system of a program management type of organization is reported. The model statistically determines the following parameters: type of messages, destinations, delivery durations, type processing, processing durations, communication channels, outgoing messages, and priorites. The total management information system of the program management organization is considered, including formal and informal information flows and both facilities and equipment. The model is written in General Purpose System Simulation 2 computer programming language for use on the Univac 1108, Executive 8 computer. The model is simulated on a daily basis and collects queue and resource utilization statistics for each decision point. The statistics are then used by management to evaluate proposed resource allocations, to evaluate proposed changes to the system, and to identify potential problem areas. The model employs both empirical and theoretical distributions which are adjusted to simulate the information flow being studied.

Shipman, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Wake Vortex Prediction Models for Decay and Transport Within Stratified Environments

This paper proposes two simple models to predict vortex transport and decay. The models are determined empirically from results of three-dimensional large eddy simulations, and are applicable to wake vortices out of ground effect and not subjected to environmental winds. The results, from the large eddy simulations assume a range of ambient turbulence and stratification levels. The models and the results from the large eddy simulations support the hypothesis that the decay of the vortex hazard is decoupled from its change in descent rate.

Switzer, George F.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Investigation of Primary Mirror Segment's Residual Errors for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The primary mirror segment aberrations after shape corrections with warping harness have been identified as the single largest error term in the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) image quality error budget. In order to better understand the likely errors and how they will impact the telescope performance we have performed detailed simulations. We first generated unwarped primary mirror segment surface shapes that met TMT specifications. Then we used the predicted warping harness influence functions and a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor model to determine estimates for the 492 corrected segment surfaces that make up the TMT primary mirror. Surface and control parameters, as well as the number of subapertures were varied to explore the parameter space. The corrected segment shapes were then passed to an optical TMT model built using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) developed Modeling and Analysis for Controlled Optical Systems (MACOS) ray-trace simulator. The generated exit pupil wavefront error maps provided RMS wavefront error and image-plane characteristics like the Normalized Point Source Sensitivity (PSSN). The results have been used to optimize the segment shape correction and wavefront sensor designs as well as provide input to the TMT systems engineering error budgets.

warping harness↗

NASA NTRS2017

GC51D-0831: A Study of the Impact of Dams on Sediment Retention in the Mekong River Basin

Dam construction in the Mekong Basin has many cascading effects on the ecology, economy, and hydrology of the surrounding region. The focus of this study is to utilize the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed at Texas A & M, a rainfall-runoff hydrologic model to determine change in sedimentation in the Mekong Basin after the construction of dams. This study uses land cover land use and reservoir datasets created by the NASA SERVIR-Mekong Regional Land Cover Monitoring System and Dam Inundation Mapping Tool as inputs into the model. The study also builds on the capabilities of the SWAT model by using the sediment trapping efficiency (STE) equation from Brune (1953), rewritten by Kummu & Varis (2007), to calculate STE of dams and estimate change in sediment concentration downstream. The outputs from this study can be used to inform dam operation policies, study the correlation between dams and delta subsidence, and study the impact of dams on river fisheries, which are all pressing issues in the Mekong region.

Earth scienc↗