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At least 793 records · Page 44

Sparse thermal data for cellular automata modeling of grain structure in additive manufacturing

Grain growth in the wake of the melt pool formed during alloy-based additive manufacturing (AM) is complex and multifaceted, depending on parameters governing heat transport, fluid flow, and solidification itself. Cellular automata (CA) models have proven effective in providing computationally efficient and physically sound predictions of grain structure for several AM problems, but their efficiency is tied to the performance of heat transport models. CA models use only a small portion of the problem's temperature data (near the moving melt pool boundary), and much of the CA calculations do not affect the final result due to re-melting of material. Coupling of and communication between heat transport and solidification models, and eliminating operations irrelevant towards final grain structure prediction, will be necessary for using these methods for efficient simulation of large parts. In this work, we introduce a procedure of decoupling the CA from temperature field simulation, using files of relevant temperature data written by the heat transport model. This approach is validated against the standard coupling approach using data obtained through the computational fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM. Negligible differences are seen in grain size, volume, and texture distributions for multilayer simulation of test problems, while the quantity of temperature data for these test problems was reduced by four orders of magnitude (from 100s of GB to 10s of MB) and the code performance sped up by a factor of around 50. Furthermore, variability in microstructure as a function of cell size, substrate, time step, and nucleation parameters is studied, and it is found that cell sizes less than or equal to 1.67 μm and sufficiently small time steps yield Αstatistically equivalent microstructures. Finally, a potential use case for this CA approach—the layer-wise convergence in grain structure starting from extremes in initial grain size—is examined. This approach's ability to simulate expected trends in nucleation and epitaxial grain growth for large regions of microstructure, simulated independently of heat transport models themselves, should prove useful for investigation of various microstructure uncertainties and prediction of part-scale experimental results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fully Bayesian Analysis With Model Inadequacy Correction For Nuclear Graphite Property Models With Hierarchical Variance Structure

Nuclear-grade graphites are extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. Within the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, such as nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity, forecasting component performance over the reactor's lifespan, and developing design standards necessitate robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components within nuclear reactors. This code enables the Bayesian calibration of properties for nuclear-grade graphites. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources are combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data are quantified.

Dhulipala, Som Lakshmi NarasimhaLakshmi Narasimha ↗

American WAKE Experiment (AWAKEN) Field Campaign Report

The American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) was a large-scale, international collaborative field campaign funded primarily by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office. Its main purpose was to gather detailed observations of wind farm-atmosphere interactions to improve understanding of wind farm physics, validate and improve simulation tools, lower uncertainties in wind farm modeling, understand environmental impacts, and ultimately reduce the cost and increase the reliability of wind energy systems. The campaign specifically focused on seven testable hypotheses that include characterizing wind turbine and wind farm wake effects, wind farm blockage, turbulent mixing, structural loading impacts, local environmental impacts, and testing wind farm control technologies. AWAKEN was a highly collaborative effort involving numerous agencies, including: DOE, through the Wind Energy Technologies Office and the Office of Science Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility, the U.S. Department of Commerce through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, many American universities, and internationally funded collaborators from Germany and Brazil.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulations of Jet Noise in Flight Conditions

A campaign of wall-modeled large-eddy simulations (WMLES) using structured curvilinear overlapping grids has been performed with the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software to predict jet noise for single-stream axisymmetric round jets. The simulations address the new Prediction Uncertainty Reduction (PUR) technical challenge within the context of NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology (CST) project. The focus of this effort is to generate a simulation database for single-stream axisymmetric round nozzles at several operating points both for static (no ambient co-flow), and in-flight (M ͚ =0.3 co-flow) conditions. The operating conditions range in jet exit Mach number from 0.38 to 1.1 with nozzle temperature ratios (NTR) from 0.84 to 2.7. The effect of the flight-stream on far-field noise sound spectra is assessed. Comparison of LES predictions to microphone array measurements demonstrate good agreement within the resolved frequency range. A dip in the predicted low frequency noise spectra for observers between 120° and 145° is observed. This dip is smaller for lower Mach numbers and seems to be correlated to the Mach wave radiation angle. The Mach 1.1 jet shows broadband-shock associated noise. While the onset of BBSN appears to be captured correctly in WMLES, some differences in its magnitude and the prominent frequency at which it occurs persist between the experiment and the simulations. The effect of the outer nozzle boundary layer state created by the co-flow is assessed and shows to be important for accurate comparisons with experiments. A change of 2.5dB between a slip-wall condition and a artificially thickened turbulent boundary layer was observed. In addition, simulations were performed with an alternative nozzle geometry that includes a internal plug and has twice the nozzle exit diameter. These two configurations resulted in very comparable spectra which is consistent with experimental observations. A generally stronger deviation from experimental results is observed for in-flight cases compared to static conditions. The applicability and correct usage of acoustic analogies used for far-field propagation with strong turbulent co-flows needs to be investigated more systematically using canonical problems to improve comparisons between experiments and WMLES. This is especially true for coherent noise sources seen in BBSN.

CST↗

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗

Decentralized Control of Sound Radiation from an Aircraft-Style Panel Using Iterative Loop Recovery

A decentralized LQG-based control strategy is designed to reduce low-frequency sound transmission through periodically stiffened panels. While modern control strategies have been used to reduce sound radiation from relatively simple structural acoustic systems, significant implementation issues have to be addressed before these control strategies can be extended to large systems such as the fuselage of an aircraft. For instance, centralized approaches typically require a high level of connectivity and are computationally intensive, while decentralized strategies face stability problems caused by the unmodeled interaction between neighboring control units. Since accurate uncertainty bounds are not known a priori, it is difficult to ensure the decentralized control system will be robust without making the controller overly conservative. Therefore an iterative approach is suggested, which utilizes frequency-shaped loop recovery. The approach accounts for modeling error introduced by neighboring control loops, requires no communication between subsystems, and is relatively simple. The control strategy is validated using real-time control experiments performed on a built-up aluminum test structure representative of the fuselage of an aircraft. Experiments demonstrate that the iterative approach is capable of achieving 12 dB peak reductions and a 3.6 dB integrated reduction in radiated sound power from the stiffened panel.

Schiller, Noah H.↗

Sensitivity Study of Multiscale and Phenomenological Elasto-Viscoplastic Grade 91 Material Models for Component-Scale Response

Many advanced nuclear reactor concepts currently being developed are targeting higher operating temperatures relative to the current fleet of light water nuclear reactors, for efficiency gains and other operational considerations. The design of high temperature structural components with reliable long-term operational performance will depend on material models that accurately capture the inelastic deformation mechanisms active in these environments. In this work, we perform a detailed parameter sensitivity analysis of two unified elasto-viscoplastic Grade 91 material models capable of capturing long term high temperature creep deformation. The first model is a phenomelogical material model from the Nuclear Engineering Material Library (NEML) developed at Argonne National Lab. The NEML model parameters and their uncertainty were fit to a range of Grade 91 experimental data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis. The second model is a LAROMance data-driven surrogate material model developed at Los Alamos National Lab. The LAROMance model is fit to a large database of responses produced by a mechanistic crystal plasticity based polycrystal model. Parameters for the LAROMance surrogate material model reflect the pedigree of the Grade 91 microstructure. Both material models have been integrated into the Grizzly code, based on the open-source MOOSE multiphysics simulation framework, to simulate both the progression of aging mechanisms and the effects of that aging on nuclear power plant structures. Grizzly is used analyze a three-dimensional Grade 91 piping system to compare the long-term inelastic response predicted by these two fundamentally different models and assess the sensitivity of the material model input parameters on this quantity of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗

Delayed Neutron Precursor Group Parameter and Spectra Generation from Fast Fission of 235U in SCALE

Delayed neutron precursor (DNP) group data are important for modeling reactor dynamics. Although the data for individual DNPs have been developed over time, the DNP group data present in the Evaluated Nuclear Data Files (ENDF) have not been updated in the past 20 years. In this work, we use SCALE to recreate the Godiva experiment that was used to generate the original DNP group structure for fast fission of 235U. However, each DNP is modeled using up-to-date data, and the results are then converted into a newly updated group structure. This conversion uses an iterative linear least squares solver to minimize chi-squared. The approaches used in this work also enable energy spectrum generation and uncertainty tracking. The method used in this paper for fast 235U fission DNP group structure updating can be applied to different energies and fissile nuclides. Demonstration of the uncertainty tracking in reactor kinetics and dynamics simulations is shown using point reactor kinetics simulations. Results show that there are data discrepancies between the International Atomic Energy Agency database and data used in ORIGEN, which are currently being fixed. Results also show that the proposed method for group spectra generation performs well.

Seifert, Luke [University of Illinois]↗

Improving neutrino oscillation measurements through event classification

Precise neutrino energy reconstruction is essential for next-generation long-baseline oscillation experiments, yet current methods remain limited by large uncertainties in neutrino-nucleus interaction modeling. Even so, it is well established that different interaction channels produce systematically varying amounts of missing energy and therefore yield different reconstruction performance–information that standard calorimetric approaches do not exploit. We introduce a strategy that incorporates this structure by classifying events according to their underlying interaction type prior to energy reconstruction. Using supervised machine-learning techniques trained on labeled generator events, we leverage intrinsic kinematic differences among quasielastic scattering, meson-exchange current, resonance production, and deep-inelastic scattering processes. A cross-generator testing framework demonstrates that this classification approach is robust to microphysics mismodeling and, when applied to a simulated DUNE 𝜈 𝜇 disappearance analysis, yields improved accuracy and sensitivity at the 10%–20% level. These results highlight a practical path toward reducing reconstruction-driven systematics in future oscillation measurements.

Ellis, Sebastian A. R. [King's College, London (Un↗

Modeling of a Generic Pebble Bed High-temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (PB-HTGR) with SAM

This report presents the modeling of the core of a generic pebble-bed reactor (PBR) at the system level using the System Analysis Module (SAM) code. This work is an extension of a previous work by the authors (Ooi et al. (2021)) that used the so-called 2-D ring model approach to model the PBMR-400. With the new approach, the pebble bed of the reactor is modeled with multiple PBCoreChannel components with spherical heat structures which allows the code to calculate thermal fluid parameters with built-in closure relations. The new core-channel approach is an improvement to the 2-D ring model approach as it does not introduce geometric distortions to the model and thus reduces the uncertainties of the predictions. In addition to thermal fluid simulations, point kinetics (PKE) are included to the model. Simulations are performed under a steady-state normal operation condition and a load-following transient scenario. This particular transient scenario is chosen as it tests both the thermal fluid and neutronics aspects of the model. The predicted results from both the steady-state and transient scenarios are compared with the results by Stew- art et al. (2021) who performed similar simulations with a Griffin-Pronghorn coupled tool. Despite the differences between the codes, with SAM being a system-analysis code and Pronghorn being a porous-medium code, both sets of results compare favorably. The over- all profiles and trends of the predicted temperatures and reactivities from the SAM and Griffin/Pronghorn simulations are similar, with some differences in their predicted values. The first part of the report covers the significance of a relatively fast-running approach that is capable of modeling the pebble bed reactor at the system-level while simultaneously capturing the radial thermal behavior of the core. Then, the modeling approach used in this work is discussed in details. Lastly, the results and comparisons with the Griffin/Pronghorn simulation are presented.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

New 26 P( p, γ ) 27 S Thermonuclear Reaction Rate and Its Astrophysical Implications in the rp -process

Accurate nuclear reaction rates for 26 P(p, γ) 27 S are pivotal for a comprehensive understanding of the rp-process nucleosynthesis path in the region of proton-rich sulfur and phosphorus isotopes. However, large uncertainties still exist in the current rate of 26 P(p, γ) 27 S because of the lack of nuclear mass and energy level structure information for 27 S. We reevaluate this reaction rate using the experimentally constrained 27 S mass, together with the shell model predicted level structure. It is found that the 26 P(p, γ) 27 S reaction rate is dominated by a direct capture reaction mechanism despite the presence of three resonances at E = 1.104, 1.597, and 1.777 MeV above the proton threshold in 27 S. The new rate is overall smaller than the other previous rates from the Hauser–Feshbach statistical model by at least 1 order of magnitude in the temperature range of X-ray burst interest. In addition, we consistently update the photodisintegration rate using the new 27 S mass. The influence of new rates of forward and reverse reaction in the abundances of isotopes produced in the rp-process is explored by postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations. The final abundance ratio of 27 S/ 26 P obtained using the new rates is only 10% of that from the old rate. The abundance flow calculations show that the reaction path 26 P(p, γ) 27 S(β + ,ν) 27 P is not as important as previously thought for producing 27 P. The adoption of the new reaction rates for 26 P(p, γ) 27 S only reduces the final production of aluminum by 7.1% and has no discernible impact on the yield of other elements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Global weather requirements for precipitation measurements

Results of a radar study of summertime convection in the high plains of Kansas are presented which demonstrate the importance of the small scale structure of precipitation to the overall production of precipitation in a storm. The smaller scale structure must be modeled to develop valid relationships between satellite observables and precipitation amount. The Kansas results suggest that just the observation of the number and spacings of the active regions of convection (thunderstorms) is sufficient to provide an estimate of water flux with an uncertainty of less than a factor of two.

Clark, J. H. E.↗

Time domain identification of element matrices

Accurate mathematical models are clearly an important part of the design, modification, control, and damage assessment of large space structures. A critical part of model determination of any type of structure is the use of system identification (SI), a process for using measured excitation and response data to improve the form of a mathematical model or the values of the parameters in it. The reasons for using SI are manifold, but most of them involve uncertainties in either the form of or the parameters in the mathematical model. Some of the more common uncertainties are the following: the nature of the damping, the characteristics of sloppy or sticky joints, inelastic material properties, and parameters in a reduced Degree-of-Freedom (DOF) model. This paper contains a description of the SI algorithm followed by two illustrations: one in which all parameters in a shear building model are determined using pull back and quick release data, and another in which an equivalent reduced DOF model is obtained for a two story frame.

Matzen, Vernon C.↗

Analysis and Design of Launch Vehicle Flight Control Systems

This paper describes the fundamental principles of launch vehicle flight control analysis and design. In particular, the classical concept of "drift-minimum" and "load-minimum" control principles is re-examined and its performance and stability robustness with respect to modeling uncertainties and a gimbal angle constraint is discussed. It is shown that an additional feedback of angle-of-attack or lateral acceleration can significantly improve the overall performance and robustness, especially in the presence of unexpected large wind disturbance. Non-minimum-phase structural filtering of "unstably interacting" bending modes of large flexible launch vehicles is also shown to be effective and robust.

Wie, Bong↗

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely↗

Effects of Shell-Buckling Knockdown Factors in Large Cylindrical Shells

Shell-buckling knockdown factors (SBKF) have been used in large cylindrical shell structures to account for uncertainty in buckling loads. As the diameter of the cylinder increases, achieving the manufacturing tolerances becomes increasingly more difficult. Knockdown factors account for manufacturing imperfections in the shell geometry by decreasing the allowable buckling load of the cylinder. In this paper, large-diameter (33 ft) cylinders are investigated by using various SBKF's. An investigation that is based on finite-element analysis (FEA) is used to develop design sensitivity relationships. Different manufacturing imperfections are modeled into a perfect cylinder to investigate the effects of these imperfections on buckling. The analysis results may be applicable to large- diameter rockets, cylindrical tower structures, bulk storage tanks, and silos.

Hrinda, Glenn A.↗