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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 793 records · Page 44

Fragmentation Prediction for a Brittle Ceramic: An Integrated Two-Scale Model Approach

A new implementation of a multi-scale fragmentation model is introduced that combines existing independent macro and micro-scale models into a single material model within the Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering (LAME) that can be used directly by the finite element structural mechanics code SIERRA/SM, developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The implementation not only joins existing independent fragmentation models into a single framework, but also enables further development by virtue of being integrated into SIERRA/SM. Integration with a finite element structural mechanics code for a true two-way coupling of the fragmentation models that were previously independent. Hereafter, the prior implementation will be referred to as the sequentially applied fragmentation model. In contrast, the newly developed model will be called the integrated two-scale model. The sequentially applied fragmentation model consists of two independent models applied sequentially to account for the macro-scale and microscale fragmentation. The macro-scale fragmentation behavior is calculated using an elastic gradient damage explicit material model developed to model fracture in brittle materials. The micro-scale fragmentation model is an implementation of the 1D cohesive-zone model developed by Zhou, et al. The micro-scale model is implemented by post-processing the macro-scale data that provides initial conditions for the 1D analysis. The micro-scale model is necessary to predict the resulting fragment size distribution at length scales inaccessible to the finite element based macro-scale model. The full range of fragmentation behavior is then predicted by combining the results from the two independent models. The sequentially applied fragmentation model was used to predict the fragments that result from impact loading of a brittle material, which in that case was a ceramic cylinder of commercial UO{sub 2} nuclear fuel. Understanding the fragmentation behavior of such materials is important for evaluating the risk of airborne particulate release under impact loading scenarios. This work will verify the implementation of the integrated two-scale model using the same experiment modeled by the existing sequentially applied model. The purpose of this manuscript is to introduce the new integrated two-scale fragmentation model and validate the implementation against the existing sequentially applied model for a specific case of impact loading of a brittle material. This validation case will not fully utilize the benefits of having the model integrated into the finite element code as a material model. Rather, this study will demonstrate consistency between the two fragmentation models to ensure that the success of the sequentially applied model will be duplicated by the integrated two-scale approach. Once validated, further development of the model can be made by utilizing the integration into the finite element code to create a fully two-way coupled fragmentation model that will be extended to include higher fidelity models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A benchmark dataset for Hydrogen Combustion

The generation of reference data for deep learning models is challenging for reactive systems, and more so for combustion reactions due to the extreme conditions that create radical species and alternative spin states during the combustion process. Here, we extend intrinsic reaction coordinate (IRC) calculations with ab initio MD simulations and normal mode displacement calculations to more extensively cover the potential energy surface for 19 reaction channels for hydrogen combustion. A total of ~290,000 potential energies and ~1,270,000 nuclear force vectors are evaluated with a high quality range-separated hybrid density functional, ωB97X-V, to construct the reference data set, including transition state ensembles, for the deep learning models to study hydrogen combustion reaction.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Hamiltonian methods of modeling and control of AC microgrids with spinning machines and inverters

This study presents a novel approach to the modeling and control of AC microgrids that contain spinning machines, power electronic inverters and energy storage devices. The inverters in the system can adjust their frequencies and power angles very quickly, so the modeling focuses on establishing a common reference frequency and angle in the microgrid based on the spinning machines. From this dynamic model, nonlinear Hamiltonian surface shaping and power flow control method is applied and shown to stabilize. From this approach the energy flow in the system is used to show the energy storage device requirements and limitations for the system. This paper first describes the model for a single bus AC microgrid with a Hamiltonian control, then extends this model and control to a more general class of multiple bus AC microgrids. Finally, simulation results demonstrate the efficacy of the approach in stabilizing and optimization of the microgrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Bayesian model mixing with multireference energy density functional

Reliably predicting nuclear properties across the entire chart of isotopes is important for applications ranging from nuclear astrophysics to superheavy science to nuclear technology. To this day, however, all the theoretical models that can scale at the level of the chart of isotopes remain semiphenomenological. Because they are fitted locally, their predictive power can vary significantly; different versions of the same theory provide different predictions. Bayesian model mixing takes advantage of such imperfect models to build a local mixture of a set of models to make improved predictions. Earlier attempts to use Bayesian model mixing for mass table calculations relied on models treated at single-reference energy density functional level, which fail to capture some of the correlations caused by configuration mixing or the restoration of broken symmetries. In this study we have applied Bayesian model mixing techniques within a multireference energy density functional (MR-EDF) framework. We considered predictions of two-particle separation energies from particle number projection or angular momentum projection with four different energy density functionals—a total of eight different MR-EDF models. We used a hierarchical Bayesian stacking framework with a Dirichlet prior distribution over weights together with an inverse log-ratio transform to enable positive correlations between different models. We found that Bayesian model mixing provides significantly improved predictions compared to the participating models. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Safeguards Considerations for Coated Particle Fuel Fabrication Facilities

This study aims to identify where existing fuel fabrication safeguards are limited in application to coated particle fuel fabrication facilities; perform a review of techniques that may be appropriate to address these limitations; and identify where further study is required. The purpose is to ensure the necessary technology and safeguards developments are established to facilitate safeguards-by-design for coated particle fuel fabrication facilities, analogous to the research and development (R&D) efforts in the advanced reactor space, including those requiring coated particle fuels and progress to higher technology readiness levels. Finally, this study will also help meet high priority objectives set forth by the IAEA in establishing safeguards R&D precedence and measurement/procedural standards at emerging fuel fabrication facilities. To achieve these objectives, the report is formatted to (1) distill relevant background information on fuel fabrication of oxide and coated particle fuels; (2) provide an overview of the fuel fabrication techniques for a reference oxide fuel fabrication facility and two selected TRISO fuel fabrication facilities; (3) develop facility models of safeguards approaches for the reference facility and the two TRISO facilities; and (4) identify any observed technology needs or gaps from this analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Design of Experiments, Model Calibration and Data Assimilation

This presentation provides an overview of emulation, calibration and experiment design for computer experiments. Emulation refers to building a statistical surrogate from a carefully selected and limited set of model runs to predict unsampled outputs. The standard kriging approach to emulation of complex computer models is presented. Calibration refers to the process of probabilistically constraining uncertain physics/engineering model inputs to be consistent with observed experimental data. An initial probability distribution for these parameters is updated using the experimental information. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used to sample the calibrated parameter distribution. Several MCMC algorithms commonly employed in practice are presented, along with a popular diagnostic for evaluating chain behavior. Space-filling approaches to experiment design for selecting model runs to build effective emulators are discussed, including Latin Hypercube Design and extensions based on orthogonal array skeleton designs and imposed symmetry requirements. Optimization criteria that further enforce space-filling, possibly in projections of the input space, are mentioned. Designs to screen for important input variations are summarized and used for variable selection in a nuclear fuels performance application. This is followed by illustration of sequential experiment design strategies for optimization, global prediction, and rare event inference.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Thermal Safety Analyses for the Production of Plutonium-238 at the High Flux Isotope Reactor

There has been a considerable effort over the previous few years to demonstrate and optimize the production of plutonium-238 ( 238 Pu) at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). This effort has involved resources from multiple divisions and facilities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to demonstrate the fabrication, irradiation, and chemical processing of targets containing neptunium-237 ( 237 Np) dioxide (NpO 2 )/aluminum (Al) cermet pellets. A critical preliminary step to irradiation at the HFIR is to demonstrate the safety of the target under irradiation via documented experiment safety analyses. The steady-state thermal safety analyses of the target are simulated in a finite element model with the COMSOL Multiphysics code that determines, among other crucial parameters, the limiting maximum temperature in the target. Safety analysis efforts for this model discussed in the present report include: (1) initial modeling of single and reduced-length pellet capsules in order to generate an experimental knowledge base that incorporate initial non-linear contact heat transfer and fission gas equations, (2) modeling efforts for prototypical designs of partially loaded and fully loaded targets using limited available knowledge of fabrication and irradiation characteristics, and (3) the most recent and comprehensive modeling effort of a fully coupled thermo-mechanical approach over the entire fully loaded target domain incorporating burn-up dependent irradiation behavior and measured target and pellet properties, hereafter referred to as the production model. These models are used to conservatively determine several important steady-state parameters including target stresses and temperatures, the limiting condition of which is the maximum temperature with respect to the melting point. The single pellet model results provide a basis for the safety of the irradiations, followed by parametric analyses in the initial prototypical designs that were necessary due to the limiting fabrication and irradiation data available. The calculated parameters in the final production target model are the most accurate and comprehensive, while still conservative. Over 210 permutations in irradiation time and position were evaluated, and are supported by the most recent inputs and highest fidelity methodology. The results of these analyses show that the models presented in this report provide a robust and reliable basis for previous, current and future experiment safety analyses. In addition, they reveal an evolving knowledge of the steady-state behavior of the NpO 2 /Al pellets under irradiation for a variety of target encapsulations and potential conditions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Data for Bistline, et al. (2025) "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts"

These files contain input assumptions, results, and figures associated with the Bistline, et al. (2025) article "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts" in Energy and Climate Change as part of the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study. Please refer to the original paper for details.

climate policy↗

Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-objective programming model for assessment the GHG emissions in MSW management

Highlights: • The multi-objective multi-period optimization model. • The solution approach for the generation of the Pareto front with mathematical programming. • The very detailed description of the model (decision variables, parameters, equations). • The use of IPCC 2006 guidelines for landfill emissions (first order decay model) in the mathematical programming formulation. - Abstract: In this study a multi-objective mathematical programming model is developed for taking into account GHG emissions for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management. Mathematical programming models are often used for structure, design and operational optimization of various systems (energy, supply chain, processes, etc.). The last twenty years they are used all the more often in Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management in order to provide optimal solutions with the cost objective being the usual driver of the optimization. In our work we consider the GHG emissions as an additional criterion, aiming at a multi-objective approach. The Pareto front (Cost vs. GHG emissions) of the system is generated using an appropriate multi-objective method. This information is essential to the decision maker because he can explore the trade-offs in the Pareto curve and select his most preferred among the Pareto optimal solutions. In the present work a detailed multi-objective, multi-period mathematical programming model is developed in order to describe the waste management problem. Apart from the bi-objective approach, the major innovations of the model are (1) the detailed modeling considering 34 materials and 42 technologies, (2) the detailed calculation of the energy content of the various streams based on the detailed material balances, and (3) the incorporation of the IPCC guidelines for the CH{sub 4} generated in the landfills (first order decay model). The equations of the model are described in full detail. Finally, the whole approach is illustrated with a case study referring to the application of the model in a Greek region.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

From hard spheres to hard-core spins

A system of hard spheres exhibits physics that is controlled only by their density. This comes about because the interaction energy is either infinite or zero, so all allowed configurations have exactly the same energy. The low-density phase is liquid, while the high-density phase is crystalline, an example of “order by disorder” as it is driven purely by entropic considerations. Here we study a family of hard spin models, which we call hard-core spin models, where we replace the translational degrees of freedom of hard spheres with the orientational degrees of freedom of lattice spins. Their hard-core interaction serves analogously to divide configurations of the many spin system into allowed and disallowed sectors. We present detailed results on the square lattice in d = 2 for a set of models with $\mathbb{Z}_n$ symmetry, which generalize Potts models, and their U(1) limits, for ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic senses of the interaction, which we refer to as exclusion and inclusion models. As the exclusion and inclusion angles are varied, we find a Kosterlitz-Thouless phase transition between a disordered phase and an ordered phase with quasi-long-ranged order, which is the form order by disorder takes in these systems. These results follow from a set of height representations, an ergodic cluster algorithm, and transfer matrix calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Equating Reference Cell and Broadband Pyranometer Data

An adjustment algorithm has been developed for broadband Class-A pyranometers, to modify the pyranometer data such that it more closely matches that of silicon-based reference cells. The adjustment algorithm uses modeled clear-sky spectral data as one of its inputs. The adjustment also uses a reference cell angle of incidence modifier. A comparison between the pyranometer and the reference cells is performed with and without the adjustment applied. The adjustment aligns the pyranometer and reference cell data to within +-2 % under clear skies when the zenith angle is less than 70 degrees .

incident angle modifier↗

Immersion Freezing in Particle-Based Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics: A Probabilistic Perspective on Singular and Time-Dependent Models

Cloud droplets containing immersed ice-nucleating particles (INPs) may freeze at temperatures above the homogeneous freezing threshold temperature in a process referred to as immersion freezing. In modeling studies, immersion freezing is often described using either so-called “singular” or “time-dependent” parameterizations. Here, we compare both approaches and discuss them in the context of probabilistic particle-based (super-droplet) cloud microphysics modeling. First, using a box model, we contrast how both parameterizations respond to idealized ambient cooling rate profiles and quantify the impact of the polydispersity of the immersed surface spectrum on the frozen fraction evolution. Presented simulations highlight that the singular approach, constituting a time-integrated form of a more general time-dependent approach, is only accurate under a limited range of ambient cooling rates. The time-dependent approach is free from this limitation. Second, using a prescribed-flow two-dimensional cloud model, we illustrate the macroscopic differences in the evolution in time of ice particle concentrations in simulations with flow regimes relevant to ambient cloud conditions. The flow-coupled aerosol-budget-resolving simulations highlight the benefits and challenges of modeling cloud condensation nuclei activation and immersion freezing on insoluble ice nuclei with super-particle methods. The challenges stem, on the one hand, from heterogeneous ice nucleation being contingent on the presence of relatively sparse immersed INPs, and on the other hand, from the need to represent a vast population of particles with relatively few so-called super particles (each representing a multiplicity of real particles). We discuss the critical role of the sampling strategy for particle attributes, including the INP size, the freezing temperature (for singular scheme) and the multiplicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

WE-A-BRD-01: Innovation in Radiation Therapy Planning I: Knowledge Guided Treatment Planning

Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) offer the capability of normal tissues and organs sparing. However, the exact amount of sparing is often unknown until the plan is complete. This lack of prior guidance has led to the iterative, trial and-error approach in current planning practice. Even with this effort the search for patient-specific optimal organ sparing is still strongly influenced by planner's experience. While experience generally helps in maximizing the dosimetric advantages of IMRT/VMAT, there have been several reports showing unnecessarily high degree of plan quality variability at individual institutions and amongst different institutions, even with a large amount of experience and the best available tools. Further, when physician and physicist evaluate a plan, the dosimetric quality of the plan is often compared with a standard protocol that ignores individual patient anatomy and tumor characteristic variations. In recent years, developments of knowledge models for clinical IMRT/VMAT planning guidance have shown promising clinical potentials. These knowledge models extract past expert clinical experience into mathematical models that predict dose sparing references at patient-specific level. For physicians and planners, these references provide objective values that reflect best achievable dosimetric constraints. For quality assurance, applying patient-specific dosimetry requirements will enable more quantitative and objective assessment of protocol compliance for complex IMRT planning. Learning Objectives: Modeling and representation of knowledge for knowledge-guided treatment planning. Demonstrations of knowledge-guided treatment planning with a few clinical caanatomical sites. Validation and evaluation of knowledge models for cost and quality effective standardization of plan optimization.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Cannon: A data-driven approach to stellar label determination

New spectroscopic surveys offer the promise of stellar parameters and abundances (“stellar labels”) for hundreds of thousands of stars; this poses a formidable spectral modeling challenge. In many cases, there is a subset of reference objects for which the stellar labels are known with high(er) fidelity. We take advantage of this with The Cannon, a new data-driven approach for determining stellar labels from spectroscopic data. The Cannon learns from the “known” labels of reference stars how the continuum-normalized spectra depend on these labels by fitting a flexible model at each wavelength; then, The Cannon uses this model to derive labels for the remaining survey stars. We illustrate The Cannon by training the model on only 542 stars in 19 clusters as reference objects, with T{sub eff}, log g, and [Fe/H] as the labels, and then applying it to the spectra of 55,000 stars from APOGEE DR10. The Cannon is very accurate. Its stellar labels compare well to the stars for which APOGEE pipeline (ASPCAP) labels are provided in DR10, with rms differences that are basically identical to the stated ASPCAP uncertainties. Beyond the reference labels, The Cannon makes no use of stellar models nor any line-list, but needs a set of reference objects that span label-space. The Cannon performs well at lower signal-to-noise, as it delivers comparably good labels even at one-ninth the APOGEE observing time. We discuss the limitations of The Cannon and its future potential, particularly, to bring different spectroscopic surveys onto a consistent scale of stellar labels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantitative methods and modeling to assess COVID–19–interrupted in vivo pharmacokinetic bioequivalence studies with two reference batches

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has presented unprecedented challenges to the generic drug development, including interruptions in bioequivalence (BE) studies. Per guidance published by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) during the COVID-19 public health emergency, any protocol changes or alternative statistical analysis plan for COVID-19-interrupted BE study should be accompanied with adequate justifications and not lead to biased equivalence determination. In this study, we used a modeling and simulation approach to assess the potential impact of study outcomes when two different batches of a Reference Standard (RS) were to be used in an in vivo pharmacokinetic BE study due to the RS expiration during the COVID-19 pandemic. Simulations were performed with hypothetical drugs under two scenarios: (1) uninterrupted study using a single batch of an RS, and (2) interrupted study using two batches of an RS. The acceptability of BE outcomes was evaluated by comparing the results obtained from interrupted studies with those from uninterrupted studies. The simulation results demonstrated that using a conventional statistical approach to evaluate BE for COVID-19-interrupted studies may be acceptable based on the pooled data from two batches. An alternative statistical method which includes a “batch” effect to the mixed effects model may be used when a significant “batch” effect was found in interrupted four-way crossover studies. However, such alternative method is not applicable for interrupted two-way crossover studies. Overall, the simulated scenarios are only for demonstration purpose, the acceptability of BE outcomes for the COVID19-interrupted studies could be case-specific.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

gcm_eval (Global Climate Model Evaluation) [SWR-24-37]

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex as our changing climate continues to affect the weather we experience which in turn drives changes in the ever increasing share of renewable energy generation and energy demand. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and often subjective process. There is no single perfect climate model or dataset for all applications. In this repository, we include software and the corresponding assessments of various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), evaluating their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparing of their future projections of climate change. We focus on variables that directly affect the energy system including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this repository is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and datasets in subsequent work.

Buster, Grant↗

Development of Integrated Thermal Fluids Modeling Capability for MSRs

The DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program supports a full range of computational thermal fluids analysis capabilities and code developments for a broad class of light-water and advanced reactor concepts. The research and development approach under thermal fluids technical area synergistically combines three length and time scales in a hierarchal multi-scale approach. To demonstrate the feasibility and capabilities of a multi-scale thermal fluids capability using these codes, a key joint effort has been pursued to develop an integrated system-and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability with the MOOSE-based codes, through integration of SAM and Pronghorn, both based on the MOOSE framework. This report summarizes the progress in developing an integrated system- and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability based on SAM and Pronghorn for molten salt reactors (MSRs), which gained significant interest in recently years. Two coupling approaches were studied, i.e. separate domain or domain-segregated coupling approach and the domain-overlapping approach. A series of coupled multi-physics models have been developed for a common reference molten salt fast reactor (MSFR) concept, ranging from standalone SAM system model to integrated SAM-Pronghorn-Griffin models. Both the steady state and the transient simulations are performed to the state-of-the-art simulation capabilities of NEAMS software suite in MSFR system applications. This report also covers further development and testing of the gas transport model in SAM for MSR modeling support. The presence of noncondensable gas in MSR systems would have strong impacts on fission gas removal and transport of noble metals throughout the system. Fission products removed through the off-gas system can also impact reactivity and can act as an additional point of heat removal. To ensure that the gas transport model is adequately tested, the supported modeling capabilities and features of SAM were identified, and a suite of tests were developed to test the model for each identified feature. Validation and UQ testing were also performed for the model and demonstrated that the buoyancy term, which was originally developed using non-salt/helium gas experimental data, can capture the experimental gas bubble velocity and diameter to within experimental and code uncertainty. An existing MSRE model was also modified in this work to include the gas transport model and to demonstrate the gas model behavior for realistic conditions of interest.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗