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At least 793 records · Page 44

The correspondence of surface climate parameters with satellite and terrain data

One of the goals of the research was to develop a ground sampling stragegy for calibrating remotely sensed measurements of surface climate parameters. The initial sampling strategy involved the stratification of the terrain based on important ancillary surface variables such as slope, exposure, insolation, geology, drainage, fire history, etc. For a spatially heterogeneous population, sampling error is reduced and efficiency increased by stratification of the landscape into more homogeneous sub-areas and by employing periodic random spacing of samples. These concepts were applied in the initial stratification of the study site for the purpose of locating and allocating instrumentation.

Dozier, Jeff↗

Probabilistic nonlinear finite element analysis of composite structures

A probabilistic finite element analysis procedure for laminated composite shells is developed. A total Lagrangian finite element formulation, employing a degenerated three-dimensional laminated composite shell element with the full Green-Lagrange strains and first-order shear deformable kinematics, is used. The first-order second-moment technique for probabilistic finite element analysis of random fields is employed, and results are presented in the form of mean and variance of the structural response. Reliability calculations are made by using the first-order reliability method combined with sensitivity derivatives from the finite element analysis. Both ply-level and micromechanics-level random variables are incorporated, the latter by means of the Aboudi micromechanics model. Two sample problems are solved to verify the accuracy of the procedures developed and to quantify the variability of certain material type/structure combinations. In general, the procedure is quite effective in determining the response statistics and reliability for linear and geometric nonlinear behavior of laminated composite shells.

Engelstad, S. P.↗

A Stratigraphic Approach to Characterize the Deposition and Storage of Organic Matter in Reservoir Sediments.

The relationship between carbon burial and sedimentation in reservoirs is unknown, exposing gaps in our fundamental understanding of the transport, processing, and deposition of sediment and organic matter in fluvial and lacustrine systems and contributing to uncertainty in our understanding of the net impact of dams to the global carbon budget. The 2011-2014 removal of two large dams on the Elwha River, Washington State, the largest dam removal yet completed globally, created extensive cutbank exposures of reservoir sediments, allowing the first characterization of the facies architecture of sediments through direct observation in reservoirs worldwide and providing an unparalleled opportunity to 1) assess the relationship between environmental influences, such as and changes in sediment supply, and their expression in the stratigraphic record, 2) assess the relationship between sedimentation processes and detrital organic carbon deposition and storage, and the importance of coarse-grained organic matter and woody debris to the total carbon budget of a reservoir, and 3) apply the insight gained from these reservoirs to evaluate current global estimates of carbon storage in reservoirs and develop a conceptual model of carbon burial in reservoirs to guide further research, as defined by characteristic stratigraphic “types”. Former Lake Mills, the younger, upstream reservoir, was characterized by a tripartite, subaerial Gilbert-style delta which prograded >1 km into the main reservoir from 1927 to 2011. Sediments were composed of coarse-grained topset beds, steeply dipping foreset beds, and a fine-grained, gently dipping prodelta. While individual event horizons were discernible in fine-grained sediments of former Lake Mills, their number and spacing did not correspond to known drawdown or flood events. Former Lake Aldwell, impounded from 1913 to 2011, was initially defined by the rapid progradation of a Gilbert-style, subaerial delta prior to the upstream completion of Glines Canyon Dam. However, the 1927 closure of Glines Canyon Dam upstream caused the delta to evolve to a fine-grained, mouth-bar type delta indicative of low, finer-grained sediment. This evolution, combined with a previously-unrecognized landslide deposit into the upper delta plain, suggests that understanding the exogenic influences on reservoir sedimentation is critical to interpretation and prediction of the sedimentation within individual systems. Former Lake Mills accumulated ~330 Gg of, with depositional-zone average accumulation rates from 229 to 9262 gCm -2 yr -1 , while Former Lake Aldwell accumulated ~ 91 Gg (263 to 2414 gCm -2 yr -1 ). Carbon storage in both reservoirs was dominated by heterogeneous, coarse organic matter and woody debris in the coarse-grained delta slope and relatively coarse-grained prodelta regions of the reservoirs, with little storage in the gravel-dominated, subaerial delta plains. Carbon accumulation in fine-grained lacustrine and prodelta sediments was relatively homogeneous, but turbidity flows from the Gilbert-style delta slope in former Lake Mills delivered significantly more carbon to the prodelta than the mouth-bar style delta of former Lake Aldwell. C:N ratios support interpretation of most organic matter in both reservoirs as allochthonous. Sampling schemes based only on lacustrine and/or prodelta would underestimate of total carbon accumulation by up to 30% in former Lake Aldwell, but the overestimate by up to 47% in former Lake Mills. Global estimates of carbon sequestration rates in reservoir sediments vary by three orders of magnitude, while individual-reservoir estimates vary by four orders of magnitude and over only 37 reservoirs and a literature review of predictive variables suggests weak or contradictory relationships. A conceptual stratigraphic framework of four unique reservoir types suggests that organic matter deposition is intrinsically tied to sedimentation processes and that patterns of carbon storage vary systematically with the stratigraphy of reservoir sediments. Deltaically-dominated reservoirs (whether Gilbert style or shoalwater) appear to store most carbon in their deltaic and prodelta regions, while thalweg-style reservoirs exhibit a bimodal distribution, with allochthonous carbon preferentially routed along the former river thalweg and autochthonous deposited on the former floodplain. Lacustrine-style reservoirs are dominated by suspended sediment deposition and thus relatively homogeneous, but literature suggests these reservoirs are more variable than typically measured. Current methods of reservoir sampling fail to account for this systematic variation and tend to be biased toward fine sediment, suggesting that global reservoir carbon storage is underestimated.

Stratton, Laurel↗

A Multi-Disciplinary Analysis Framework for the Design of Small Launch Vehicles

Between the years of 1995 and 2014 the number of small satellites (1-500 kg) went up from 20 to 180. [1] Out of the 180 launched in 2014 66% were Nano satellites (1-10 kg). [1] With this trend of smaller satellites, one would expect a rise in number of small launch vehicles (SLVs are defined by capability to carry 1-100 kg to orbit), but this has not happened: [3] only 8% of all small satellites are launched on SLVs and the others become secondary payloads on regular launch vehicles. [1] This results in small satellites being placed into either suboptimal orbits or waiting for launch schedules to align with bigger launches, resulting in long waiting times. Dedicated SLVs could improve the responsiveness of small satellite launches, but SLV design is complicated by the large architecture space needed to be explored in order to find efficient and affordable designs. The SLV architecture trade space contains many discrete options, e.g. solid vs. liquid fuels, air launch vs. ground launch, number of stages, etc. [2][3] Performing detailed analysis for all the options at once would be prohibitive. Thus, a sizing environment/framework that is capable of providing necessary information for conceptual-level trade studies and can rapidly explore the vast SLV architecture space is necessary. The framework, illustrated in Figure 1, consists of four disciplines central to the sizing and synthesis of launch vehicles: propulsion, aerodynamics, structures, and trajectory. For the aerodynamics and trajectory disciplines, Missile DATCOM and POST2 are used, respectively. The propulsion and structures disciplines are represented in the framework with tools developed at ASDL Georgia Tech. For propulsion, the Solid Motor Analysis Code (SMAC) is a physics-based conceptual design tool for solid rocket motors. SMAC is capable of geometric burn simulation, ballistic analysis, and prediction of thrust performance. [4] For structures, Launch Vehicle Structural Analysis (LVSA) tool is a physics-based tool that focuses on structural dynamic analysis with sizing capability. These tools are integrated into the framework illustrated in Figure 1 with the corresponding connections described in Table 1. The process flow is as follows: first, SMAC sizes insulation and calculates maximum operating pressures for each vehicle stage. The MEOP and insulation thickness values from SMAC are fed to LVSA which then utilizes this information to size the motor casing. This creates a feedback loop between LVSA and SMAC that converges on the radius available for fuel, casing, and insulation thickness. Once the stage sizing is converged on SMAC creates an engine deck that is passed to POST2. Next, the data from SMAC and LVSA goes into Missile DATCOM which generates an aerodynamics database for POST2. Finally, POST2 performs a targeting optimization while maximizing the payload mass to orbit. Within the framework, POST2 is automated in order to be robust to a wide variety of possible designs by performing a Monte Carlo simulation over the initialization vector of the POST2 optimization variables. To demonstrate the capability of this framework, a sample problem of exploring the design space of an SLV capable of placing satellites into a low Earth orbit (inclination=47 deg, 196.5 by 211.3 nm) is used. This sample problem is a ground-launched SLV consisting of four in-line SRM stages. The multidisciplinary design analysis (MDA) environment is utilized to explore a design space consisting of 22 continuous and 12 discrete variables, shown by Table 1 by blocks 1,2,3. Running a full factorial design of experiments (DOE) would have been prohibitively expensive even with this reduced design space, thus a space filling design with 3,502 and then additional expansion of 2,602 cases was used. The first DOE consisted of 3,502 cases, and all of the variables were varied. These input variables are listed in blocks 1, 2, and 3 in Table 1. Most of the variables are propulsion related with stage lengths determining the delta-V split of the SLV. The expansion consisted of 2,602 cases, and the continuous variables were set to be equal to the most promising designs from the sizing of first DOE. For each set of continuous variables, the discrete variables (grain type, star points, and propellant) were to varied. The results of the DOE can be seen in Figure 2; each of the points in this plot represents a closed launch vehicle that reaches the targeted orbit. For each of the cases, there is information on flown trajectory, structural, and propulsion properties of the SLV. For example, Figure 3 shows changes in altitude and velocity with time for a particular case. The right side of Figure 3 clearly shows the coasting (slow decrease) and burning phases (sharp increase) of the SLV mission. LV mass is positively correlated with the optimized payload mass to orbit because heavier LVs carry more fuel and thus have more stored chemical energy. Furthermore, for any given payload mass to orbit, the most efficient design would result in the smallest LV. The results as visualized in Figure 2 shows this tradeoff, and the Pareto frontier of the efficient designs can be seen along the dotted line. Figure 2 can be divided into regions with the lowest mass vehicles corresponding to the minimum bound on radius, and the highest mass vehicles corresponding to the maximum bound on radius. Within a mass region, the discrete variables, such as propellant type and propellant grain arrangement, have the most effect on payload mass. This paper presents an MDA framework that can perform an automated physics-based sizing of SLV designs and a corresponding methodology to utilize the MDA to explore the design space of SLVs. The proposed methodology was applied to a perform a design space exploration for a four stage SLV. The outputs show the expected pareto frontier forming and provide detailed information about the SLV performance and staging. Using the produced data, it will be possible to select a set of pareto optimal designs that can then be further explored in subsequent design cycles. This demonstration shows that automated design space exploration should be used in the early phase design of future SLV concepts.

Nikita S Birbasov↗

Manufactured Porous Ambient Surface Simulants

The planetary science decadal survey for 2013-2022 (Vision and Voyages, NRC 2011) has promoted mission concepts for sample acquisition from small solar system bodies. Numerous comet-sampling tools are in development to meet this standard. Manufactured Porous Ambient Surface Simulants (MPASS) materials provide an opportunity to simulate variable features at ambient temperatures and pressures to appropriately test potential sample acquisition systems for comets, asteroids, and planetary surfaces. The original "flavor" of MPASS materials is known as Manufactured Porous Ambient Comet Simulants (MPACS), which was developed in parallel with the development of the Biblade Comet Sampling System (Backes et al., in review). The current suite of MPACS materials was developed through research of the physical and mechanical properties of comets from past comet missions results and modeling efforts, coordination with the science community at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and testing of a wide range of materials and formulations. These simulants were required to represent the physical and mechanical properties of cometary nuclei, based on the current understanding of the science community. Working with cryogenic simulants can be tedious and costly; thus MPACS is a suite of ambient simulants that yields a brittle failure mode similar to that of cryogenic icy materials. Here we describe our suite of comet simulants known as MPACS that will be used to test and validate the Biblade Comet Sampling System (Backes et al., in review).

Carey, Elizabeth M.↗

Reprocessing Models for the Optical Light Curves of Hypervariable Quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project

We explore reprocessing models for a sample of 17 hypervariable quasars, taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping project, which all show coordinated optical luminosity hypervariability with amplitudes of factors ≳2 between 2014 and 2020. We develop and apply reprocessing models for quasar light curves in simple geometries that are likely to be representative of quasar inner environments. In addition to the commonly investigated thin-disk model, we include the thick-disk and hemisphere geometries. The thick-disk geometry could, for instance, represent a magnetically elevated disk, whereas the hemisphere model can be interpreted as a first-order approximation for any optically thick out-of-plane material caused by outflows/winds, warped/tilted disks, and so on. Of the 17 quasars in our sample, 11 are best-fitted by a hemisphere geometry, five are classified as thick disks, and both models fail for just one object. We highlight the successes and shortcomings of our thermal reprocessing models in case studies of four quasars that are representative of the sample. While reprocessing is unlikely to explain all of the variability that we observe in quasars, we present our classification scheme as a starting point for revealing the likely geometries of reprocessing for quasars in our sample and hypervariable quasars in general.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE HOST GALAXY PROPERTIES OF VARIABILITY SELECTED AGN IN THE PAN-STARRS1 MEDIUM DEEP SURVEY

We study the properties of 975 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected by variability in the Pan-STARRS1 Medium deep Survey. Using complementary multi-wavelength data from the ultraviolet to the far-infrared, we use spectral energy distribution fitting to determine the AGN and host properties at z < 1 and compare to a well-matched control sample. We confirm the trend previously observed: that the variability amplitude decreases with AGN luminosity, but we also observe that the slope of this relation steepens with wavelength, resulting in a “redder when brighter” trend at low luminosities. Our results show that AGNs are hosted by more massive hosts than control sample galaxies, while the rest frame dust-corrected NUV r color distribution of AGN hosts is similar to control galaxies. We find a positive correlation between the AGN luminosity and star formation rate (SFR), independent of redshift. AGN hosts populate the entire range of SFRs within and outside of the Main Sequence of star-forming galaxies. Comparing the distribution of AGN hosts and control galaxies, we show that AGN hosts are less likely to be hosted by quiescent galaxies and more likely to be hosted by Main Sequence or starburst galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dimuon production in the MicroBooNE detector

This analysis studies the production of the rare signal with two muons (dimuon) in the finalstate at µB using the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) as source of neutrino interactions. Themain background source for the dimuon signal are pions. Differentiating muons and pions hasbeen challenging at µB because the tracks left by these particles are almost identical. Thisanalysis faces this problem using a supervised classifier algorithm called boosted decisiontree (BDT). A Monte Carlo simulation (MC) enhanced dimuon signal sample was producedto train a BDT capable of recognizing this signal. A set of variables that show somediscrimination characteristics was used to perform the training. A MC neutrino interactionsimulation sample was used to estimate the background. Estimations of dimuon productionin real data samples were made for different cases. Additionally, an analysis of the systematicuncertainties, fake data studies, and BDT performance checks were obtained.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Ellipsometric study of Al2O3/Ag/Si and SiO2/Ag/quartz ashed in an oxygen plasma

The growth of silver oxide (proposed as a potentially useful protective coating for space environment) on a silver mirror coated with an Al2O3 or a SiO2 protective layer was investigated using the monolayer-sensitive variable angle of incidence spectroscopic ellipsometry technique. The samples were exposed to a pure oxygen plasma in a plasma asher, and the silver oxide growth was monitored as a function of the exposure time. It was found that atomic oxygen in the asher penetrated through the SiO2 or Al2O3 coatings to convert the silver underneath to silver oxide, and that the quantity of the silver oxide formed was proportional to the ashing time. The band gap of silver oxide was determined to be 1.3 eV. A schematic diagram of the variable angle of incidence spectroscopic ellipsometer is included.

De, Bhola N.↗

PySAGES: flexible, advanced sampling methods accelerated with GPUs

Abstract Molecular simulations are an important tool for research in physics, chemistry, and biology. The capabilities of simulations can be greatly expanded by providing access to advanced sampling methods and techniques that permit calculation of the relevant underlying free energy landscapes. In this sense, software that can be seamlessly adapted to a broad range of complex systems is essential. Building on past efforts to provide open-source community-supported software for advanced sampling, we introduce PySAGES, a Python implementation of the Software Suite for Advanced General Ensemble Simulations (SSAGES) that provides full GPU support for massively parallel applications of enhanced sampling methods such as adaptive biasing forces, harmonic bias, or forward flux sampling in the context of molecular dynamics simulations. By providing an intuitive interface that facilitates the management of a system’s configuration, the inclusion of new collective variables, and the implementation of sophisticated free energy-based sampling methods, the PySAGES library serves as a general platform for the development and implementation of emerging simulation techniques. The capabilities, core features, and computational performance of this tool are demonstrated with clear and concise examples pertaining to different classes of molecular systems. We anticipate that PySAGES will provide the scientific community with a robust and easily accessible platform to accelerate simulations, improve sampling, and enable facile estimation of free energies for a wide range of materials and processes.

Chemistry↗

Optimization of scat detection methods for a social ungulate, the wild pig, and experimental evaluation of factors affecting detection of scat

Collection of scat samples is common in wildlife research, particularly for genetic capture-mark-recapture applications. Due to high degradation rates of genetic material in scat, large numbers of samples must be collected to generate robust estimates. Optimization of sampling approaches to account for taxa-specific patterns of scat deposition is, therefore, necessary to ensure sufficient sample collection. While scat collection methods have been widely studied in carnivores, research to maximize scat collection and noninvasive sampling efficiency for social ungulates is lacking. Further, environmental factors or scat morphology may influence detection of scat by observers. We contrasted performance of novel radial search protocols with existing adaptive cluster sampling protocols to quantify differences in observed amounts of wild pig ( Sus scrofa ) scat. We also evaluated the effects of environmental (percentage of vegetative ground cover and occurrence of rain immediately prior to sampling) and scat characteristics (fecal pellet size and number) on the detectability of scat by observers. We found that 15- and 20-m radial search protocols resulted in greater numbers of scats encountered than the previously used adaptive cluster sampling approach across habitat types, and that fecal pellet size, number of fecal pellets, percent vegetative ground cover, and recent rain events were significant predictors of scat detection. Our results suggest that use of a fixed-width radial search protocol may increase the number of scats detected for wild pigs, or other social ungulates, allowing more robust estimation of population metrics using noninvasive genetic sampling methods. Further, as fecal pellet size affected scat detection, juvenile or smaller-sized animals may be less detectable than adult or large animals, which could introduce bias into abundance estimates. In conclusion, knowledge of relationships between environmental variables and scat detection may allow researchers to optimize sampling protocols to maximize utility of noninvasive sampling for wild pigs and other social ungulates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A catalogue of cataclysmic variables from 20 yr of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey with new classifications, periods, trends, and oddities

ABSTRACT We present a catalogue of 507 cataclysmic variables (CVs) observed in SDSS I to IV including 70 new classifications collated from multiple archival data sets. This represents the largest sample of CVs with high-quality and homogeneous optical spectroscopy. We have used this sample to derive unbiased space densities and period distributions for the major sub-types of CVs. We also report on some peculiar CVs, period bouncers and also CVs exhibiting large changes in accretion rates. We report 70 new CVs, 59 new periods, 178 unpublished spectra, and 262 new or updated classifications. From the SDSS spectroscopy, we also identified 18 systems incorrectly identified as CVs in the literature. We discuss the observed properties of 13 peculiar CVS, and we identify a small set of eight CVs that defy the standard classification scheme. We use this sample to investigate the distribution of different CV sub-types, and we estimate their individual space densities, as well as that of the entire CV population. The SDSS I to IV sample includes 14 period bounce CVs or candidates. We discuss the variability of CVs across the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram, highlighting selection biases of variability-based CV detection. Finally, we searched for, and found eight tertiary companions to the SDSS CVs. We anticipate that this catalogue and the extensive material included in the Supplementary Data will be useful for a range of observational population studies of CVs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Low cadmium exposure in males and lactating females–estimation of biomarkers

Background: Urine cadmium (Cd) and renal function biomarkers, mostly analysed in urine spot samples, are well established biomarkers of occupational exposure. Their use and associations at low environmental level are common, but have recently been questioned, particularly in terms of physiological variability and normalisation bias in the case of urine spot samples. Aim: To determine the appropriateness of spot urine and/or blood Cd exposure biomarkers and their relationships with renal function biomarkers at low levels of exposure. To this end, we used data from Slovenian human biomonitoring program involving 1081 Slovenians (548 males, mean age 31 years; 533 lactating females, mean age 29 years; 2007–2015) who have not been exposed to Cd occupationally. Results: Geometric means (GMs) of Cd in blood and spot urine samples were 0.27 ng/mL (0.28 for males and 0.33 for females) and 0.19 ng/mL (0.21 for males and 0.17 for females), respectively. Differing results were obtained when contrasting normalisation by urine creatinine with specific gravity. GMs of urine albumin (Alb), alpha-1-microglobulin (A1M), N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase (NAG), and immunoglobulin G (IgG) were far below their upper reference limits. Statistical analysis of unnormalised or normalised urine data often yielded inconsistent and conflicting results (or trends), so association analyses with unnormalised data were taken as more valid. Relatively weak positive associations were observed between urine Cd (ng/mL) and blood Cd (β=0.11, p=0.002 for males and β=0.33, p<0.001 for females) and for females between urine NAG and blood Cd (β=0.14, p=0.04). No associations were found between other renal function biomarkers and blood Cd. Associations between Cd and renal function biomarkers in urine were stronger (p<0.05, β=0.11–0.63). Mostly, all of the associations stayed significant but weakened after normalisation for diuresis. In the case of A1M, its associations with Cd were influenced by current smoking and blood Pb in males and by pre-pregnancy smoking and blood Se in females (β up to 0.34, p<0.001). Statistical analysis of unnormalised or normalised urine data often yielded inconsistent and conflicting results (or trends), so association analyses data with unnormalised were taken as more valid. Conclusions: The observed uncertainties introduced by urine normalisation, particularly by creatinine, confirm blood Cd as a superior low-Cd exposure biomarker versus urine Cd in cases when 24 h urine is unattainable. Evidence that A1M can be positively related to Cd, smoking (current or pre-pregnancy), Pb, and Se status, points to the versatile biological functions of A1M. - Highlights: • Creatinine normalisation of spot urine data is inappropriate at low Cd exposure. • Blood Cd as low-Cd exposure biomarker is superior over spot urine Cd. • Cd in urine, but not in blood, was significantly associated with A1M. • A1M – Cd relations were influenced by smoking, Se and less so by Pb.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Electrical Properties of Intercalated Ag{sub x}MoSe{sub 2} Compounds in Constant and Alternating Fields

On intercalated Ag{sub x}MoSe{sub 2} samples, in addition to temperature measurements of the direct current electrical resistivity, measurements of the alternating current resistivity using the impedance spectroscopy technique are carried out in a wide frequency range and at different temperatures. The activation behavior of the d.c. conductivity, which increases with increasing silver content in the samples, is shown. The a.c. conductivity undergoes frequency dispersion, described by a “universal dynamic response” (UDR). It is shown that the relaxation processes during charge transfer in a variable field are accelerated with increasing silver content in the samples and with increasing temperature. The data obtained are analyzed using the models of the band and hopping conduction.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Rain attenuation measurements: Variability and data quality assessment

Year to year variations in the cumulative distributions of rain rate or rain attenuation are evident in any of the published measurements for a single propagation path that span a period of several years of observation. These variations must be described by models for the prediction of rain attenuation statistics. Now that a large measurement data base has been assembled by the International Radio Consultative Committee, the information needed to assess variability is available. On the basis of 252 sample cumulative distribution functions for the occurrence of attenuation by rain, the expected year to year variation in attenuation at a fixed probability level in the 0.1 to 0.001 percent of a year range is estimated to be 27 percent. The expected deviation from an attenuation model prediction for a single year of observations is estimated to exceed 33 percent when any of the available global rain climate model are employed to estimate the rain rate statistics. The probability distribution for the variation in attenuation or rain rate at a fixed fraction of a year is lognormal. The lognormal behavior of the variate was used to compile the statistics for variability.

Crane, Robert K.↗

Evaluation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Simulations from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project

Simulations of humidity from 28 general circulation models for the period 1979-88 from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project are compared with observations from radiosondes over North America and the globe and with satellite microwave observations over the Pacific basin. The simulations of decadal mean values of precipitable water (W) integrated over each of these regions tend to be less moist than the real atmosphere in all three cases; the median model values are approximately 5% less than the observed values. The spread among the simulations is larger over regions of high terrain, which suggests that differences in methods of resolving topographic features are important. The mean elevation of the North American continent is substantially higher in the models than is observed, which may contribute to the overall dry bias of the models over that area. The authors do not find a clear association between the mean topography of a model and its mean W simulation, however, which suggests that the bias over land is not purely a matter of orography. The seasonal cycle of W is reasonably well simulated by the models, although over North America they have a tendency to become moister more quickly in the spring than is observed. The interannual component of the variability of W is not well captured by the models over North America. Globally, the simulated W values show a signal correlated with the Southern Oscillation index but the observations do not. This discrepancy may be related to deficiencies in the radiosonde network, which does not sample the tropical ocean regions well. Overall, the interannual variability of W, as well as its climatology and mean seasonal cycle, are better described by the median of the 28 simulations than by individual members of the ensemble. Tests to learn whether simulated precipitable water, evaporation, and precipitation values may be related to aspects of model formulation yield few clear signals, although the authors find, for example, a tendency for the few models that predict boundary layer depth to have large values of evaporation and precipitation. Controlled experiments, in which aspects of model architecture are systematically varied within individual models, may be necessary to elucidate whether and how model characteristics influence simulations.

Gaffen, Dian J.↗