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At least 793 records · Page 44

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DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Structural and mechanical properties of monolayer amorphous carbon and boron nitride

Amorphous materials exhibit various characteristics that are not featured by crystals and can sometimes be tuned by their degree of disorder (DOD). Here, we report results on the mechanical properties of monolayer amorphous carbon (MAC) and monolayer amorphous boron nitride (maBN) with different DOD. The pertinent structures are obtained by kinetic-Monte-Carlo (kMC) simulations using machine-learning potentials (MLP) with density-functional-theory (DFT)-level accuracy. An intuitive order parameter, namely the areal fraction F x occupied by crystallites within the continuous random network, is proposed to describe the DOD. We find that F x captures the essence of the DOD: Samples with the same F x but different sizes and arrangements of crystallites, obtained using two distinct kMC procedures, have virtually identical radial distributions functions as well as bond-length and bond-angle distributions. Furthermore, by simulating the fracture process with molecular dynamics, we found that the mechanical responses of MAC and maBN before fracture are mainly determined by F x and are insensitive to the sizes and specific arrangements and to some extent the numbers and area distributions of the crystallites. The behavior of cracks in the two materials is analyzed and found to mainly propagate in meandering paths in the CRN region and to be influenced by crystallites in distinct ways that toughen the material. Furthermore, the present results reveal the relation between structure and mechanical properties in amorphous monolayers and may provide a universal toughening strategy for 2D materials.

2-dimensional systems↗

DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying model structural error: Efficient Bayesian calibration of a regional groundwater flow model using surrogates and a data-driven error model

Groundwater model structural error is ubiquitous, due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of real aquifer systems. During model calibration, the basic hydrogeological parameters may be adjusted to compensate for structural error. This may result in biased predictions when such calibrated models are used to forecast aquifer responses to new forcing. Here, we investigate the impact of model structural error on calibration and prediction of a real-world groundwater flow model, using a Bayesian method with a data-driven error model to explicitly account for model structural error. The error-explicit Bayesian method jointly infers model parameters and structural error and thereby reduces parameter compensation. In this study, Bayesian inference is facilitated using high performance computing and fast surrogate models (based on machine learning techniques) as a substitute for the computationally expensive groundwater model. We demonstrate that with explicit treatment of model structural error, the Bayesian method yields parameter posterior distributions that are substantially different from those derived using classical Bayesian calibration that does not account for model structural error. We also found that the error-explicit Bayesian method gives signficantly more accurate prediction along with reasonable credible intervals. Finally, through variance decomposition, we provide a comprehensive assessment of prediction uncertainty contributed from parameter, model structure, and measurement uncertainty. The results suggest that the error-explicit Bayesian approach provides a solution to real-world modeling applications for which data support the presence of model structural error, yet model deficiency cannot be specifically identified or corrected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Establishing an acoustic-property relationship in laser powder bed fusion with machine learning

Quality control of Laser Powder Bed Fusion (PBF-LB) additively manufactured parts is an important hurdle inhibiting the technology’s use structural applications. Acoustic monitoring of the laser powder bed fusion process can detect defects in-situ that are known to degrade mechanical properties. However, processing-structure-property (PSP) relationships are required to extrapolate from detected defects to part performance. Here, this study explores how acoustics may be a suitable signature linking processing conditions to properties, thus effectively substituting for structure in the PSP relationship. Establishing such a relationship would enable a part’s mechanical performance to be directly predicted from its acoustic signature, reducing the need for destructive testing or microstructural analysis to ensure a part will meet performance requirements. One hundred CoCrFeMnNi high entropy alloy tensile bars were printed across 13 process conditions in a series of 6 prints. The acoustic signatures of these tensile bars were used to train machine learning models to predict each part’s mechanical properties. By using both process information and acoustic information to predict mechanical properties, yield strength was predicted 18% more accurately and ductility to failure was predicted 10% more accurately than is achieved when using duplicate parts to predict part performance. Finally, individual acoustic frequencies were investigated to determine why acoustic signatures improve mechanical property predictions and the potential physical origins of these signatures. This work demonstrates how blending acoustics, process information, and machine learning can provide in-situ diagnostics of mechanical properties and improve the reliability of the PBF-LB process.

Acoustic emission↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Modeling of Woven Ablative Thermal Protection System Materials

The NASA Entry Systems Modeling project maintains a portfolio of computational model and tool development activities focused on reducing performance uncertainties in ablative Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials for NASA missions. The development activities span material scale and strive to allow microstructural characterization of material structure and properties, mesoscale analyses of damage, and macroscale evaluation of heatshield performance and recession in a given aerothermodynamic environment. This talk will detail the application of developed capabilities at all three scales to the woven TPS material that the Agency has selected as the heatshield for the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System (MSR-EES) mission – 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). Each of the applications focuses on driving down uncertainties in material performance and thus risk for MSR-EES and other future missions that may leverage woven TPS. At the microscale, machine learning techniques are used to characterize images from destructive microscopy and inform structural variability. At the mesoscale, Lagrangian techniques are used to simulate ballistic impact and interpret damage modes noted in experiments. At the macroscale, coupled flow-material response techniques are validated by Arc Jet testing to enable heatshield design for missions with massive ablation.

Justin B Haskins↗

DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning photon detection algorithm for coherent x-ray ultrafast fluctuation analysis

X-ray free electron laser experiments have brought unique capabilities and opened new directions in research, such as creating new states of matter or directly measuring atomic motion. One such area is the ability to use finely spaced sets of coherent x-ray pulses to be compared after scattering from a dynamic system at different times. This enables the study of fluctuations in many-body quantum systems at the level of the ultrafast pulse durations, but this method has been limited to a select number of examples and required complex and advanced analytical tools. By applying a new methodology to this problem, we have made qualitative advances in three separate areas that will likely also find application to new fields. As compared to the “droplet-type” models, which typically are used to estimate the photon distributions on pixelated detectors to obtain the coherent x-ray speckle patterns, our algorithm achieves an order of magnitude speedup on CPU hardware and two orders of magnitude improvement on GPU hardware. We also find that it retains accuracy in low-contrast conditions, which is the typical regime for many experiments in structural dynamics. Finally, it can predict photon distributions in high average-intensity applications, a regime which up until now has not been accessible. Our artificial intelligence-assisted algorithm will enable a wider adoption of x-ray coherence spectroscopies, by both automating previously challenging analyses and enabling new experiments that were not otherwise feasible without the developments described in this work.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Workflow of Elucidating Viral Impact on Mediating Microbial Response to In-situ Experimental Warming: Bridging microbial modeling to carbon and mineral modeling

Viruses are abundant in soils and shape microbial communities in ways that can potentially influence ecosystem processes, yet their contributions to carbon cycling and mineral transformations remain poorly understood. Here we present a multi-phase framework that links virus-host interactions to soil biogeochemistry by combining ecological simulations, genome- and community-scale metabolic modeling, and statistical and machine-learning analyses. We first calibrated microbial abundance profiles under explicit infection scenarios to capture how viral pressure alters community structure, then explored alternative interaction strategies, including kill-the-winner, piggyback-the-winner, and mixed lytic-lysogenic modes, through forward simulations. These ecological shifts were translated into metabolic consequences using exchange fluxes summarized into biologically meaningful categories, while integrated statistical and machine-learning screens elevated subtle but consistent signals. Application of this framework revealed that viral infections shift the balance between organic and inorganic fluxes, redirecting metabolism from diffuse organic transformations toward inorganic pools such as protons and CO 2 , directly linking viral regulation to respiration and soil carbon balance. The roll-up analysis also isolated perturbations in critical mineral ions, including magnesium, manganese, zinc, and copper, which serve as essential enzymatic cofactors. In piggyback-the-winner scenarios, uptake of these ions was strongly suppressed. Contrasting viral strategies produced distinct community structures and metabolic outcomes, from broad suppression under kill-the-winner dynamics to dramatic redistributions under high-lytic and high-gain lysogenic regimes that collapsed vulnerable microbial populations while promoting opportunists. Together, these results provide a tractable path to trace viral perturbations from host abundance shifts to metabolic flux adjustments and ecosystem-scale processes, offering a practical way to include viruses in earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging High-throughput Computation and Machine Learning to Discover and Understand Low-Temperature Fast Oxygen Conductors (Final Technical Report)

The major goals of this work are twofold: (1) to enable transformative basic understanding of structure-property-performance relationships governing oxygen transport in oxygen-active materials and (2) facilitate the discovery and rational design of new oxygen-active materials which transport oxygen efficiently at low temperature. Transformative understanding and materials design will be accomplished by synergistically combining materials data mining, machine learning, high-throughput computation and targeted experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ferroelectric phase transition in group-IV monochalcogenides from an equivariant machine learned force field

Group-IV monochalcogenides are a class of layered ferroelectric semiconductors that have demonstrated spontaneous intrinsic polarization above room temperature. Here, in this study, we use the multi-atomic cluster expansion (MACE) machine learning architecture to train and test a force field capable of modeling the structural properties and second-order ferroelectric-to-paraelectric phase transition in a Group-IV monochalcogenide, GeSe. The model captures the double-well potential energy surface associated with the onset of macroscopic polarization in bulk GeSe within 12.5 meV/atom, as well as near-equilibrium properties like the phonon dispersion. The development of this quantitatively accurate force field enables long-time molecular dynamics simulations, which predict the critical temperature of the ferroelectric-to-paraelectric phase transition in bulk GeSe to be T c = 600 K. This study demonstrates the capabilities of equivariant force-fields to accurately describe phenomena associated with structural symmetry breaking.

ferroelectricity↗

DOE OSTI2018

Predicting the Effect of Single and Multiple Mutations on Protein Structural Stability

Predicting how a point mutation alters a protein’s stability can guide pharmaceutical drug design initiatives which aim to counter the effects of serious diseases. Conducting mutagenesis studies in physical proteins can give insights about the effects of amino acid substitutions, but such wet-lab work is prohibitive due to the time as well as financial resources needed to assess the effect of even a single amino acid substitution. Computational methods for predicting the effects of a mutation on a protein structure can complement wet-lab work, and varying approaches are available with promising accuracy rates. In this work we compare and assess the utility of several machine learning methods and their ability to predict the effects of single and double mutations. We in silico generate mutant protein structures, and compute several rigidity metrics for each of them. We use these as features for our Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), and Deep Neural Network (DNN) methods. We validate the predictions of our in silico mutations against experimental ΔΔG stability data, and attain Pearson Correlation values upwards of 0.71 for single mutations, and 0.81 for double mutations. We perform ablation studies to assess which features contribute most to a model’s success, and also introduce a voting scheme to synthesize a single prediction from the individual predictions of the three models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating cross-field particle transport at the outer midplane of TCV by tracking filaments with machine learning

Abstract Cross-field transport of particles in the boundary region of magnetically confined fusion plasmas is dominated by turbulence. Blobs, intermittent turbulent structures with large amplitude and a filamentary shape appearing in the scrape-off layer (SOL), are known from theoretical and experimental studies to be the main contributor to the cross-field particle transport. The dynamics of blobs differs depending on various plasma conditions, including triangularity ( δ ). In this work, we analyze triangularity dependence of the cross-field particle transport at the outer midplane of plasmas with δ = + 0.38 , +0.15, −0.14, and −0.26 on the Tokamak à Configuration Variable, using our novel machine learning (ML) blob-tracking approach applied to gas puff imaging data. The cross-field particle flux determined in this way is of the same order as the overall transport inferred from KN1D, GBS, and SOLPS-ITER simulations, suggesting that the blobs identified by the ML blob-tracking account for most of the cross-field particle transport in the SOL. Also, the ML blob-tracking and KN1D show a decrease in the cross-field particle transport as δ becomes more negative. The blob-by-blob analysis of the result from the tracking reveals that the decrease of cross-field particle transport with decreasing δ is accompanied by a decrease in the number of blobs in a fixed time, which tend to have larger area and lower radial speed. Also, the blobs in these plasmas are in the connected sheath regime, and show a velocity scaling consistent with the two-region model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

The impact of curation errors in the PDBBind Database on machine learning predictions of protein–protein binding affinity

The PDBBind database has been widely utilized for the computational prediction of protein–protein binding affinities. While the accuracy of the PDBBind-curated equilibrium dissociation constants (K D ) has been reported for the protein–ligand subset of the PDBBind database, the curation accuracy has not been reported for the protein–protein subset. Here, we present a detailed manual analysis for the subset of PDBBind records with PubMed Central Open Access primary publications and find that ~19% of these records had K D values that were not supported by their primary publications. The impact of these putative curation errors on the machine learning-based prediction of K D from experimental protein–protein 3D structures was evaluated and correcting the curation errors improved the Pearson correlation coefficient between measured and random forest-predicted log 10 (K D ) values by ~8 percentage points. This finding underscores the importance of dataset accuracy for computational modelling and highlights the need for more stringent curation processes when extracting information from the scientific literature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine-learning prediction for quasiparton distribution function matrix elements

There have been rapid developments in the direct calculation in lattice QCD (LQCD) of the Bjorken-x dependence of hadron structure through large-momentum effective theory (LaMET). LaMET overcomes the previous limitation of LQCD to moments (that is, integrals over Bjorken x) of hadron structure, allowing LQCD to directly provide the kinematic regions where the experimental values are least known. LaMET requires large-momentum hadron states to minimize its systematics and allow us to reach small- x reliably. This means that very fine lattice spacing to minimize lattice artifacts at order $(P_za)^n$ will become crucial for next-generation LaMET-like structure calculations. Furthermore, such calculations require operators with long Wilson-link displacements, especially in finer lattice units, increasing the communication costs relative to that of the propagator inversion. In this work, we explore whether machine-learning algorithms can make predictions of correlators to reduce the computational cost of these LQCD calculations. We consider two algorithms, gradient-boosting decision tree and linear models, applied to LaMET data, the matrix elements needed to determine the kaon and $η_s$ unpolarized parton distribution functions (PDFs), meson distribution amplitude (DA), and the nucleon gluon PDF. We find that both algorithms can reliably predict the target observables with different prediction accuracy and systematic errors. The predictions from smaller displacement z to larger ones work better than those for momentum p due to the higher correlation among the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Strain and Failure of a Knot in Polyethylene Using Molecular Dynamics with Machine-Learned Potentials

A neural network potential (NNP) has been developed by fitting to ab initio electronic structure data on hydrocarbons and is used to study failure of linear and knotted polyethylene (PE) chains. A linear PE chain must be highly strained before breaking as the stress is equally distributed across the chain. In contrast, the stress in a PE chain with a 31 or overhand knot, accumulates at the knot’s entrance/exit. We find the strain energy is greatest when the bond length and angle are strained simultaneously, and that the knot weakens the chain by increasing the variance of the C–C–C angle, thereby allowing rupture at lower bond strains. Here, we extend our analysis to both 51 and 52 knots and find that both break at the entrance/exit of a loop. Notably, molecular scale PE knots exhibit many of the same characteristics as knots in a macroscopic rope, with stick–slip phenomena upon tightening and similar points of failure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Catalyst Surface Stability Under Reaction Conditions Using Deep Reinforcement Learning and Machine Learning Potentials

Catalysts are critical for most large-scale energy intensive chemical transformation processes, such as energy storage, liquid fuel production, and the formation of chemical building blocks. The catalyst composition, structure, and morphology impact the performance under reaction conditions and influences properties like activity and selectivity. Many industrial catalysts offer imperfect activity/selectivity, or contain expensive metals. Further, catalysts can deactivate over time as the morphology changes or harsh reactive environments alter the surface structure. Methods to automatically model and predict the kinetics of how catalyst surfaces will restructure would enable engineers to design around these challenges, improve performance, increase longevity. This project investigated a specific type of machine learning model, deep reinforcement learning, machine learning models to act as surrogates for the physical system, and compared the results of these approaches with a specialized high-throughput experimental synthesis and measurement platform.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Data Assessment and Assimilation for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Data Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

A data-driven machine learning approach to scientific sensor data assessment may automatically learn directly from the structural and temporal patterns in abundant observations. The project has developed data assessment and assimilation models to screen datasets using dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) and deep learning (DL) methods, which rely on correlations between variables, across time, and between spatial locations, to detect poor or invalid data with a high degree of confidence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning the Hubbard U parameter in DFT+U using Bayesian optimization

Abstract Within density functional theory (DFT), adding a Hubbard U correction can mitigate some of the deficiencies of local and semi-local exchange-correlation functionals, while maintaining computational efficiency. However, the accuracy of DFT+U largely depends on the chosen Hubbard U values. We propose an approach to determining the optimal U parameters for a given material by machine learning. The Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm is used with an objective function formulated to reproduce the band structures produced by more accurate hybrid functionals. This approach is demonstrated for transition metal oxides, europium chalcogenides, and narrow-gap semiconductors. The band structures obtained using the BO U values are in agreement with hybrid functional results. Additionally, comparison to the linear response (LR) approach to determining U demonstrates that the BO method is superior.

Chemistry↗