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NASA NTRS2011

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Weather impact↗
NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Safie, Fayssal↗
NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Stereo Vision Based Terrain Mapping for Off-Road Autonomous Navigation

Successful off-road autonomous navigation by an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) requires reliable perception and representation of natural terrain. While perception algorithms are used to detect driving hazards, terrain mapping algorithms are used to represent the detected hazards in a world model a UGV can use to plan safe paths. There are two primary ways to detect driving hazards with perception sensors mounted to a UGV: binary obstacle detection and traversability cost analysis. Binary obstacle detectors label terrain as either traversable or non-traversable, whereas, traversability cost analysis assigns a cost to driving over a discrete patch of terrain. In uncluttered environments where the non-obstacle terrain is equally traversable, binary obstacle detection is sufficient. However, in cluttered environments, some form of traversability cost analysis is necessary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has explored both approaches using stereo vision systems. A set of binary detectors has been implemented that detect positive obstacles, negative obstacles, tree trunks, tree lines, excessive slope, low overhangs, and water bodies. A compact terrain map is built from each frame of stereo images. The mapping algorithm labels cells that contain obstacles as no-go regions, and encodes terrain elevation, terrain classification, terrain roughness, traversability cost, and a confidence value. The single frame maps are merged into a world map where temporal filtering is applied. In previous papers, we have described our perception algorithms that perform binary obstacle detection. In this paper, we summarize the terrain mapping capabilities that JPL has implemented during several UGV programs over the last decade and discuss some challenges to building terrain maps with stereo range data.

passive perception↗
NASA NTRS2010

Mapping and Quantification of Vascular Branching in Plants, Animals and Humans by VESGEN Software

Humans face daunting challenges in the successful exploration and colonization of space, including adverse alterations in gravity and radiation. The Earth-determined biology of plants, animals and humans is significantly modified in such extraterrestrial environments. One physiological requirement shared by larger plants and animals with humans is a complex, highly branching vascular system that is dynamically responsive to cellular metabolism, immunological protection and specialized cellular/tissue function. VESsel GENeration (VESGEN) Analysis has been developed as a mature beta version, pre-release research software for mapping and quantification of the fractal-based complexity of vascular branching. Alterations in vascular branching pattern can provide informative read-outs of altered vascular regulation. Originally developed for biomedical applications in angiogenesis, VESGEN 2D has provided novel insights into the cytokine, transgenic and therapeutic regulation of angiogenesis, lymphangiogenesis and other microvascular remodeling phenomena. Vascular trees, networks and tree-network composites are mapped and quantified. Applications include disease progression from clinical ophthalmic images of the human retina; experimental regulation of vascular remodeling in the mouse retina; avian and mouse coronary vasculature, and other experimental models in vivo. We envision that altered branching in the leaves of plants studied on ISS such as Arabidopsis thaliana cans also be analyzed.

Parsons-Wingerter, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Implementation of Kane's Method for a Spacecraft Composed of Multiple Rigid Bodies

Equations of motion are derived for a general spacecraft composed of rigid bodies connected via rotary (spherical or gimballed) joints in a tree topology. Several supporting concepts are developed in depth. Basis dyads aid in the transition from basis-free vector equations to component-wise equations. Joint partials allow abstraction of 1-DOF, 2-DOF, 3-DOF gimballed and spherical rotational joints to a common notation. The basic building block consisting of an "inner" body and an "outer" body connected by a joint enables efficient organization of arbitrary tree structures. Kane's equation is recast in a form which facilitates systematic assembly of large systems of equations, and exposes a relationship of Kane's equation to Newton and Euler's equations which is obscured by the usual presentation. The resulting system of dynamic equations is of minimum dimension, and is suitable for numerical solution by computer. Implementation is ·discussed, and illustrative simulation results are presented.

Stoneking, Eric T.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Thirty Years of Change in Subalpine Forest Cover from Landsat Image Analysis in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Landsat imagery was analyzed to understand changes in subalpine forest stands since the mid-1980s in the Sierra-Nevada region of California. At locations where long-term plot measurements have shown that stands are becoming denser in the number of small tree stems (compared to the early 1930s), the 30-year analysis of Landsat greenness index (NDVI) indicated that no consistent increases in canopy leaf cover have occurred at these same locations since the mid-1980s. Interannual variations in stand NDVI closely followed snow accumulation amounts recorded at nearby stations. In contrast, at eastern Sierra whitebark pine stand locations where it has been observed that widespread tree mortality has occurred, decreasing NDVI trends over the past 5-10 years were consistent with rapid loss of forest canopy cover. Landsat imagery was further analyzed to understand patterns of post-wildfire vegetation recovery, focusing on high burn severity (HBS) patches within burned areas dating from the late 1940s. Analysis of landscape metrics showed that the percentage of total HBS area comprised by the largest patch of recovered woody cover was relatively small in all fires that occurred since 1995, but increased rapidly with time since fire. Patch complexity of recovered woody cover decreased notably after more than 50 years of regrowth, but was not readily associated with time for fires that occurred since the mid 1990s. The aggregation level of patches with recovery of woody cover increased steadily with time since fire. The study approach using satellite remote sensing can be expanded to assess the consequences of stand-replacing wildfires in all forests of the region.

Fires↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASAs VESGEN: Systems Analysis of Vascular Phenotypes from Stress and Other Signaling Pathways Using GeneLab.

One fundamental requirement shared by humans with all higher terrestrial life forms, including insect wings, higher land plants and other vertebrates, is a complex, fractally branching vascular system. NASA's VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software maps and quantifies vascular trees, networks, and tree-network composites according to weighted physiological rules such as vessel connectivity, tapering and bifurcational branching. According to fluid dynamics, successful vascular transport requires a complex distributed system of highly regulated laminar flow. Microvascular branching rules within vertebrates, dicot leaves and the other organisms therefore display many similarities. One unifying perspective is that vascular patterning offers a useful readout that necessarily integrates complex molecular signaling pathways. VESGEN has elucidated changes in vascular pattern resulting from inflammatory, stress response, developmental and other signaling within numerous tissues and major model organisms studied for Space Biology. For a new VESGEN systems approach, we analyzed differential gene expression in leaves of Arabidopsis thaliana reported by GeneLab (GLDS-7) for spaceflight. Vascular-related changes in leaf gene expression were identified that can potentially be phenocopied by mutants in ground-based experiments. To link transcriptional, protein and other molecular change with phenotype, alterations in the Euclidean and dynamic dimensions (x,y,t) of vascular patterns for Arabidopsis leaves and other model species are being co-localized with signaling patterns of single molecular expression analyzed as information dimensions (i,j,k,...). Previously, Drosophila microarray data returned from space suggested significant changes in genes related to wing venation development that include EGF, Notch, Hedghog, Wingless and Dpp signaling. Phenotypes of increasingly abnormal ectopic wing venation in the (non-spaceflight) Drosophila wing generated by overexpression of a Notch antagonist were analyzed by VESGEN. Other VESGEN research applications include the mouse retina, GI and coronary vessels, avian placental analogs and translational studies in the astronaut retina related to health challenges for long-duration missions.

Venation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Using NASA's GeneLab for VESGEN Systems Analysis of Vascular Phenotypes from Stress and Other Signaling Pathways

One fundamental requirement shared by humans with all higher terrestrial life forms, including other vertebrates, insects, and higher land plants, is a complex, fractally branching vascular system. NASA's VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software maps and quantifies vascular trees, networks, and tree-network composites according to weighted physiological rules such as vessel connectivity, tapering and bifurcational branching. According to fluid dynamics, successful vascular transport requires a complex distributed system of highly regulated laminar flow. Microvascular branching rules within vertebrates, dicot leaves and the other organisms therefore display many similarities. A unifying perspective is that vascular patterning offers a useful readout of molecular signaling that necessarily integrates these complex pathways. VESGEN has elucidated changes in vascular pattern resulting from inflammatory, developmental and other signaling within numerous tissues and major model organisms studied for Space Biology. For a new VESGEN systems approach, we analyzed differential gene expression in leaves of Arabidopsis thaliana reported by GeneLab (GLDS-7) for spaceflight. Vascularrelated changes in leaf gene expression were identified that can potentially be phenocopied by mutants in ground-based experiments. To link transcriptional, protein and other molecular change with phenotype, alterations in the spatial and dynamic dimensions of vascular patterns for Arabidopsis leaves and other model species are being co-localized with signaling patterns of single molecular expression analyzed as information dimensions. Previously, Drosophila microarray data returned from space suggested significant changes in genes related to wing venation development that include EGF, Notch, Hedghog, Wingless and Dpp signaling. Phenotypes of increasingly abnormal ectopic wing venation in the (non-spaceflight) Drosophila wing generated by overexpression of a Notch antagonist were analyzed by VESGEN. Other VESGEN research applications include the mouse retina, GI and coronary vessels, avian placental analogs and translational studies in the astronaut retina related to health challenges for long-duration missions.

Venation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Use of Sun Elevation Angle for Stereogrammetric Boreal Forest Height in Open Canopies

Stereogrammetry applied to globally available high resolution spaceborne imagery (HRSI; less than 5 m spatial resolution) yields fine-scaled digital surface models (DSMs) of elevation. These DSMs may represent elevations that range from the ground to the vegetation canopy surface, are produced from stereoscopic image pairs (stereo pairs) that have a variety of acquisition characteristics, and have been coupled with lidar data of forest structure and ground surface elevation to examine forest height. This work explores surface elevations from HRSI DSMs derived from two types of acquisitions in open canopy forests. We (1) apply an automated mass-production stereogrammetry workflow to along-track HRSI stereo pairs, (2) identify multiple spatially coincident DSMs whose stereo pairs were acquired under different solar geometry, (3) vertically co-register these DSMs using coincident spaceborne lidar footprints (from ICESat-GLAS) as reference, and(4) examine differences in surface elevations between the reference lidar and the co-registered HRSI DSMs associated with two general types of acquisitions (DSM types) from different sun elevation angles. We find that these DSM types, distinguished by sun elevation angle at the time of stereo pair acquisition, are associated with different surface elevations estimated from automated stereogrammetry in open canopy forests. For DSM values with corresponding reference ground surface elevation from spaceborne lidar footprints in open canopy northern Siberian Larix forests with slopes less than10, our results show that HRSI DSM acquired with sun elevation angles greater than 35deg and less than 25deg (during snow-free conditions) produced characteristic and consistently distinct distributions of elevation differences from reference lidar. The former include DSMs of near-ground surfaces with root mean square errors less than 0.68 m relative to lidar. The latter, particularly those with angles less than 10deg, show distributions with larger differences from lidar that are associated with open canopy forests whose vegetation surface elevations are captured. Terrain aspect did not have a strong effect on the distribution of vegetation surfaces. Using the two DSM types together, the distribution of DSM-differenced heights in forests (6.0 m, sigma = 1.4 m) was consistent with the distribution of plot-level mean tree heights (6.5m, sigma = 1.2 m). We conclude that the variation in sun elevation angle at time of stereo pair acquisition can create illumination conditions conducive for capturing elevations of surfaces either near the ground or associated with vegetation canopy. Knowledge of HRSI acquisition solar geometry and snow cover can be used to understand and combine stereogrammetric surface elevation estimates to co-register rand difference overlapping DSMs, providing a means to map forest height at fine scales, resolving the vertical structure of groups of trees from spaceborne platforms in open canopy forests.

Paul M Montesano↗
NASA NTRS2018

Differences in Pre and Post Vascular Patterning of Retinas from ISS Crew Members and HDT Subjects by VESGEN Analysis

Accelerated research by NASA [1] has investigated the significant risks for visual and ocular impairments Spaceflight Associated Neuro-Ocular Syndrome /Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure (SANS/VIIP) incurred by microgravity spaceflight, especially long-duration missions. Our study investigates the role of blood vessels in the incidence and etiology of SANS/VIIP within the retinas of Astronaut crewmembers pre-and post-flight to the International Space Station (ISS) by NASA's VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN). The response of retinal vessels in crewmembers to microgravity was compared to that of retinal vessels to Head-Down Tilt (HDT) in subjects undergoing 70-Day Bed Rest. The study tests the proposed hypothesis that cephalad fluid shifts missions, resulting in ocular and visual impairments, are necessarily mediated in part by retinal blood vessels, and are therefore accompanied by significant remodeling of retinal vasculature.Vascular patterns in the retinas of crew members and HDTBR subjects extracted from 30° infrared (IR) Heidelberg Spectralis® images collected pre/postflight and pre/post HDTBR, respectively, were analyzed by VESGEN (patent pending). a mature, automated software developed as a research discovery tool for progressive vascular diseases in the retina and other tissues [2]. The weighted, multi-parametric VESGEN analysis generates maps of branching arterial and venous trees and quantification by parameters such as the fractal dimension (Df, a modern measure of vascular space-filling capacity), vessel diameters, and densities of vessel length and number classified into specific branching generations by vascular physiological branching rules [2,3]. The retrospective study approved by NASA’s Institutional Review Board included six HDT subjects (NASA Flight Analogs Research Unit [FARU] Campaign 11; for example, [4]) and eight ISS crewmembers monitored by routine occupational surveillance who provided their study consents to NASA’s Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH). For the initial blinded VESGEN phase, ophthalmic retinal images were masked as to subject identity and pre- and post-status. In the second unblinded phase, VESGEN results were analyzed according to the pre- and post-status of left and right retinas matched to each subject. To complete our study, vascular results will be subjected to NASA biostatistical analysis and correlated with other ophthalmic and medical findings. Preliminary results for changes in the pre- to post-status of vascular patterning in the retinas of crewmembers and HDT subjects are strikingly opposite. By Df and other vascular branching measures, the space-filling capacity of arterial and venous trees decreased in a substantial subset of crewmembers (11/16 retinas). In contrast, vascular densities increased in a substantial subset of HDT subjects by the same parameters (6/10 retinas, currently excluding one anomalous subject). To conclude the study, biostatistical and medical analyses will be of critical importance for investigating the validity of these vascular findings. Vascular densities appeared to decrease in the retinas of crewmembers following ISS Missions, and increase in subjects after HDT. The vascular increases and decreases most likely derive primarily from limits of resolution to the ophthalmic imaging that does not capture the smallest vessels, rather than from vessel growth or atrophy. Differences in arterial and venous response to cephalad fluid shifts induced by ISS and HDT may have resulted from a long-duration conditioning phenomenon (for example, 6-month ISS missions compared to 70-day HDT), or the presence of gravity in HDT compared to microgravity onboard the ISS. To conclude our study, the biostatistical and medical analyses will be of critical importance for investigating the validity and significance of the VESGEN findings.

Murray, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Analysis of GMO Plum Plant Culture in System Operations Failure

GMO plum trees are being evaluated at the Kennedy Space Center as a possible candidate for future space crops. Previously conducted horticultural testing compared the performance of several plum genotypes in controlled environment chambers, resulting in a down-selection to the NASA-11 genotype. Precursory studies determined the water use requirements to sustain the plants as well as the feasibility of grafting non-GMO plum scions onto GMO plum rootstocks of NASA-5, NASA-10, and NASA-11 genotypes. This study follows the growth and horticultural progress of plum trees and in-vitro cultures from August 2017 to November 2017, and provides supplemental support for future GMO plum studies. The presence of Hurricane Irma in early September 2017 resulted in the plants undergoing material deterioration from major changes to their overall horticultural progress.

life support↗
NASA NTRS2018

Differences in Pre and Post Vascular Patterning Within Retinas from ISS Crew Members and Head-Down Tilt (HDT) Subjects by VESGEN Analysis

Accelerated research by NASA has investigated the significant risks incurred during long-duration missions in microgravity for Space Flight-Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS, formerly known as Visual Impairments associated with Increased Intracranial Pressure, VIIP) [1]. For our study, NASA's VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) was used to investigate the role of retinal blood vessels in the etiology of SANS/VIIP. The response of retinal vessels to microgravity was evaluated in astronaut crew members pre and post flight to the International Space Station (ISS), and compared to the response of retinal vessels in healthy volunteers to 6deg head-down tilt during 70 days of bed rest (HDTBR). For the study, we are testing the hypothesis that long-term cephalad fluid shifts resulting in ocular and visual impairments are necessarily mediated in part by retinal blood vessels, and therefore are accompanied by structural adaptations of the vessels. METHODS: Vascular patterns in the retinas of crew members and HDTBR subjects extracted from 30deg infrared (IR) Heidelberg Spectralis images collected pre/postflight and pre/post HDTBR, respectively, were analyzed by VESGEN (patent pending). VESGEN is a mature, automated software developed as a research discovery tool for progressive vascular diseases in the retina and other tissues. The multi-parametric VESGEN analysis generates maps of branching arterial and venous trees quantified by parameters such as the fractal dimension (Df, a modern measure of vascular space-filling capacity), vessel diameters, and densities of vessel length and number classified into specific branching generations according to vascular physiological branching rules. The retrospective study approved by NASA's Institutional Review Board included the analysis of bilateral retinas in eight ISS crew members monitored by routine occupational surveillance and six HDTBR subjects (NASA FARU Campaign 11, for example). The VESGEN analysis was conducted in a blinded fashion, with IR retinal images masked to the subject's identity, ophthalmic and clinical characteristics, and to the temporal sequence of image collection. To complete our study, VESGEN results will be analyzed statistically and correlated with other ophthalmic and medical findings. RESULTS: Preliminary results for changes in the pre to post status of vascular patterning in the retinas of crew members and HDTBR subjects are interestingly opposite. By Df and other vascular branching measures, the space-filling capacity of arterial and venous trees decreased in the majority of crew members (11/16 retinas). In contrast, vascular densities increased in HDTBR subjects by the same parameters (6/10 retinas). To conclude the study, biostatistics and medical analyses will be conducted to quantify and draw conclusions about how the changes associated with flight compare to those associated with HDTBR. CONCLUSIONS: Vascular densities appeared to decrease in the retinas of ISS crew members and increase in HDTBR subjects. Differences in arterial and venous response to cephalad fluid shifts induced by ISS and HDTBR may have resulted from a long-duration conditioning phenomenon (for example, 6-month ISS missions compared to 70 days HDTBR), or the presence of gravity in HDTBR compared to microgravity on the ISS. In addition, increased and decreased vessel diameters for Crew Members and HDTBR, respectively, are subject to limits of im

Vascular↗
NASA NTRS2017

Vascular Patterning Analysis by VESGEN 2D/3D with Bioinformatics: Updates for Rodent Tissues

Fractally branching vascular systems are a complex physiological requirement shared by humans with all higher terrestrial life forms, including other vertebrates, insects, and higher land plants. Vascular trees, networks, and tree-network composites are therefore mapped and quantified by the VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software according to weighted physiological vascular rules that include vessel connectivity, tapering and bifurcational branching. According to fluid dynamics, successful vascular transport depends upon a complex distributed system of highly regulated laminar flow. VESGEN has elucidated changes in vascular patterning resulting from inflammatory, developmental and other signaling pathways within numerous tissues of major model organisms important for Space Biology, especially for rodents. Important early stage regenerative opportunities have been identified by VESGEN vascular analysis for visual impairments in the human retina, and is currently being used for research into astronaut visual and ocular disorders associated with long duration missions. The VESGEN 2D software is a mature, automated, widely published capability for which beta testing and public release by NASA is planned for the upcoming year. Early-stage capabilities for VESGEN 3D analysis are under development for the rodent retina and intestine as prototype tissues. A prototype VESGEN 2D Bioinformatics software capability has also been developed to associate phenotypic changes in molecular expression with vascular structure and function. By new VESGEN bioinformatic innovations, expression patterns of the genetic, transcriptional, protein and other markers for regulatory molecules such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and their receptors, often indicators of tissue oxygenation status, are co-localized with alterations in vascular pattern. Biomarkers are therefore mapped and quantified as information dimensions directly correlated with the spatial dimensions of a vascular pattern. Further important technology innovations by NASA include substantial image segmentation advances for more automated binary extraction of the grayscale vascular patterns, together with informative associated image quality assessments. Vascular mapping and quantification capabilities for the rodent retina and intestine are illustrated for VESGEN 2D, along with technology status reports on VESGEN 3D and Bioinformatic capabilities. Research partially supported by Ames Center Innovation Awards.

Parsons-Wingerter, P.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Clustering Days with Similar Airport Weather Conditions

On any given day, traffic flow managers must often rely on past experience and intuition when developing traffic flow management initiatives that mitigate imbalances between the aircraft demand and the weather impacted airport capacity. The goal of this study was to build on recent efforts to apply data mining classification and clustering algorithms to vast archives of historical weather and air traffic data to identify patterns and past decisions that can ultimately inform day-of-operations decision-making. More specifically, this study identified similar weather impacted days at select U.S. airports, and analyzed the traffic management initiatives implemented on these representative days. The identification of the similar days was accomplished by applying a decision tree algorithm to the hourly Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the arrival delays for Newark Liberty International Airport. The branches from the trained decision tree were subsequently pruned to identify four weather conditions that resulted in medium to high delays for the arrivals scheduled to Newark in 2012. Using these weather conditions, four, daily airport-level Weather Impacted Traffic Index values were calculated using the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the 2012 scheduled arrival counts from the FAAs Aviation System Performance Metric system. The four, daily Weather Impacted Traffic Index values for 2012 were subsequently clustered using an Expectation Maximization clustering algorithm, and nine unique types of weather days at Newark were identified. By far the most prominent type of day at Newark was a day associated with relatively good weather conditions, where there was little convective activity, winds were low, ceilings and visibility were high and there was little precipitation. Moderate levels of convective activity characterized the next most prominent type of day. Days with persistently high winds or low ceiling and visibility levels were relatively rare in 2012. Lastly, the frequency at which Ground Delay Programs, Ground Stops and Miles-in-Trail restrictions were implemented on each of the typical types of days at Newark were analyzed. Based on the results, it does appear as if the usage of Miles-in-Trail, Ground Delay Program and Ground Stop restrictions correlates well with the severity of the weather associated with each unique type of weather impacted day at Newark. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that it is feasible to use historical weather and air traffic archives to provide guidance on the types of traffic management restrictions to implement in response to the weather conditions impacting an airport.

traffic flow management↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling In-Space Aborts for NASA Human Exploration Missions

NASA is developing new capabilities to send humans beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) for the first time in several decades with the new Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle. As part of these capabilities, NASA is developing means to terminate missions prior to reaching mission destinations in order to save the crew in the event of critical life-threatening failures. This abort capability exists for both ascent and in-space operations. While the risk associated with ascent aborts has been modeled in detail, less has been done in the area of in-space aborts (e.g. Apollo 13). Recent efforts have started to better assess the risk associated with in-space aborts. This paper will describe these efforts. The in-space abort model described in this paper is part of a larger Cross-Program PRA (XPRA) model of exploration missions planned in the next few years to the vicinity of the Moon. The model consists of linked event trees and fault trees and associated rules built using the Systems Analysis Program for Hands-On Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) tool. This model structure is being built with flexibility in mind in order to perform risk trades and further expansion of the model.

Bigler, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling the Interactive Effects of Spruce Beetle Infestation and Climate on Subalpine Vegetation

In the subalpine zone of the Rocky Mountains, climate change is predicted to result in an increase in the frequency and severity of spruce beetle outbreaks. Climate change itself may affect vegetation, potentially leading to changes in species composition. The direct and indirect effects of climate and disturbances on forest composition, biomass, and dynamics open the possibility for non-linear ecosystem responses. Modeling studies allow for the study of the interaction of these effects and their impact on the forest system. University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), an individual-based gap model that simulates forest dynamics and characteristics, is updated with a spruce beetle subroutine that calculates the probability for beetle infestation and potential mortalityof each tree on a plot. The updated model is then run with multiple scenarios that combine beetle infestation with current or altered climate at sites across the southern Rocky Mountains. Results show that spruce beetle infestations acted to facilitate competition with invading lower-elevation species, resulting in an increase in the biomass of historically lower elevation species and a further decline in Engelmann spruce biomass than occurred with solely bark beetle disturbance or solely climate change. We also found an initial enhancing effect between spruce beetle infestation and climate change; however, by the end of 100 yr of climate change and potential beetle infestation, climate had a dampening effect on spruce beetle infestation, through loss of host trees. These results are an important step in understanding the possible futures for vegetation of the Rocky Mountains as well as for spruce forests across the western United States and Canada.

Foster, Adrianna C.↗