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At least 793 records · Page 44

A note on the logistic equation subject to uncertainties in parameters

This paper discusses the logistic equation subject to uncertainties in the intrinsic growth rate, α, in the initial population density, N{sub 0}, and in the environmental carrying capacity, K. These parameters are treated as independent random variables. The random variable transformation method is applied to compute the first probability density function of the time–population density, N(t), and of its inflection point, t{sup ∗}. Results for the density functions of N(t), for a fixed t>0, and t{sup ∗} are also provided for α, N{sub 0} and K uniformly distributed. Finally, numerical experiments illustrate the proposed theoretical results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nonrelativistic grey S n -transport radiative-shock solutions

We present semi-analytic radiative-shock solutions in which grey Sn-transport is used to model the radiation, and we include both constant cross sections and cross sections that depend on temperature and density. These new solutions solve for a variable Eddington factor (VEF) across the shock domain, which allows for interesting physics not seen before in radiative-shock solutions. Comparisons are made with the grey nonequilibrium-diffusion radiative-shock solutions of Lowrie and Edwards [1], which assumed that the Eddington factor is constant across the shock domain. It is our experience that the local Mach number is monotonic when producing nonequilibrium-diffusion solutions, but that this monotonicity may disappear while integrating the precursor region to produce Sn-transport solutions. For temperature- and density-dependent cross sections we show evidence of a spike in the VEF in the far upstream portion of the radiative-shock precursor. We show evidence of an adaptation zone in the precursor region, adjacent to the embedded hydrodynamic shock, as conjectured by Drake [2, 3], and also confirm his expectation that the precursor temperatures adjacent to the Zel’dovich spike take values that are greater than the downstream post-shock equilibrium temperature. We also show evidence that the radiation energy density can be nonmonotonic under the Zel’dovich spike, which is indicative of anti-diffusive radiation flow as predicted by McClarren and Drake [4]. We compare the angle dependence of the radiation flow for the Sn-transport and nonequilibriumdiffusion radiation solutions, and show that there are considerable differences in the radiation flow between these models across the shock structure. Lastly, we analyze the radiation flow to understand the cause of the adaptation zone, as well as the structure of the Sn-transport radiation-intensity solutions across the shock structure.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Preliminary scaling laws for plasma current, ion kinetic temperature, and plasma number density in the NASA Lewis bumpy torus plasma

Parametric variation of independent variables which may affect the characteristics of bumpy torus plasma have identified those which have a significant effect on the plasma current, ion kinetic temperature, and plasma number density, and those which do not. Empirical power law correlations of the plasma current, and the ion kinetic temperature and number density were obtained as functions of potential applied to the midplane electrode rings, the background neutral gas pressure, and the magnetic field strength. Additional parameters studied included the type of gas, the polarity of the midplane electrode rings, the mode of plasma operation, and the method of measuring the plasma number density. No significant departures from the scaling laws appear to occur at the highest ion kinetic temperatures or number densities obtained to date.

Roth, J. R.↗

Temporal and spatial variations in the Io torus

Spectroscopic measurements of lines from both forbidden S II and forbidden O II in the Io torus taken on 15 nights spread over four months in 1981 are presented and discussed. An east-west asymmetry was observed in the optical emissions, showing larger western intensities and a more diffuse and radially extensive nebula to the east. Two configurations of forbidden S II longitudinal asymmetry were stable over at least four days. Longitudinal structure was not detected in either the forbidden O II intensity or the plasma density as measured by the forbidden O II and S II doublet ratios. A radial variation in the ratio of O II/S II was observed, with the ratio being largest near Io's orbit. Monthly variability was detected in both the intensity and density of the torus.

Morgan, J. S.↗

Evidence for X-ray flux and spectral modulation by absorption in NGC 6814. 1: The nature of the most rapid variability

The Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 6814 was observed using the Japanese X-ray astronomy satellite Ginga in 1990 April and October. The rapid variability characteristically associated with this source was reconfirmed. Specifically, three dips were found in the April observation in which the flux dropped to nearly zero in approximately 300 s. The doubling timescale was approximately 50 s. A similar but separated drop and rise in flux was observed in the October data, different in that the flux did not decrease completely to zero. A detailed analysis of the data around the structures of most rapid variability found spectral variability and lags in flux between different energy bands. Lags were on the order of a few to tens of seconds for the April data, and on the order of tens to a couple of hundred seconds for the October data. The sense of the lags was such that during flux decreases the hard flux lagged, while during flux increases the soft flux lagged. Associated significant apparent hardening of the spectrum at low flux was observed in the April data. Apparent hardening of the spectrum also occurred in the October flux decrease, to a photon index of GAMMA = 0.85; however, the spectrum softened at lowest flux to the index of the predecrease level, GAMMA = 1.54. In the April dips, the line flux was found to decrease significantly. A marginal decrease in line flux was also observed in the October data. The variability of the line flux reconfirmed the result of Kunieda et al. (1990), who found that the line production region must be within approximately 300 light-seconds from the source. To explain the observational results, a variable-absorption model was proposed, in which the column density was assumed to vary as a function of time. Other physical processes, including intrinsic spectral changes and warm absorber models, which could account for the fastest variability, could be ruled out by the results of the data analysis. A primary constraint found for geometrical models is that the material which is doing the absorption must have relatively low ionization (xi less than 100). This result leads to severe constraints on a general orbiting cloud model, requiring high densities (n approximately 10(exp 16)/cu cm) and sheetlike geometry.

Leighly, Karen↗

Intercomparison of density and temperature profiles obtained by lidar, ionizatoin gauges, falling spheres, datasondes and radiosondes during the DYANA campaign

During the course of the DYnamics Adapted Network for the Atmosphere (DYANA) campaign in early 1990, various techniques to measure densities and temperatures from the ground up to the lower thermosphere were employed. Some of these measurements were performed near simultaneously (maximum allowed time difference: 1 h) and at the same location, and therefore offered the unique chance of intercomparison of different techniques. In this study, we will report on intercomparisons of data from ground-based instruments (Rayleigh- and sodium-lidar), balloon-borne methods (datasondes and radiosondes) and rocket-borne techniques (falling spheres and ionization gauges). The main result is that there is good agreement between the various measurements when considering the error bars. Only occasionally did we notice small but systematic differences (e.g. for the datasondes above 65 km). The most extensive intercomparison was possible between the Rayleigh lidar and the falling sphere technique, both employed in Biscarrosse (44 deg N, 1 deg W). Concerning densities, excellent agreement was found below 63 km: the mean of the deviations is less than 1% and the root mean square (RMS) is approximately 3%. Systematic differences of the order of 5% were noticed around 67 km and above 80 km. The former can be accounted for by an instrumental effect of the falling sphere (Ma = 1 transition; Ma = Mach number), whereas the latter is tentatively explained by the presence of Mie scatterers in the upper mesosphere. Concerning temperatures, the agreement is excellent between 35 and 65 km: the mean of the deviations is less than +/- 3 K and the variability is +/- 5 K. The two systematic density differences mentioned above also affect the temperatures: between 65 and 80 km, the Rayleigh lidar temperatures are systematically lower than the falling sphere values by approximately 5 K.

Lubken, F.-J.↗

Observation-based estimates of land availability for wind power: a case study for Czechia

Background: The availability of land for the installation of wind power turbines is restricted by numerous factors. Besides climatic conditions, the deployment of wind energy is limited by technical, social, economic, and environmental factors. Typically, assessments of land availability for wind power use legal and technical criteria to estimate the potential for wind power expansion. In contrast, we use observed characteristics of wind power generation sites existing in Austria and Denmark to estimate its potential expansion in Czechia. We combined data on wind turbine locations with data on land use, wind speeds, human impact on land, and nature conservation areas. Results: Our analysis shows that the density of wind power in Austria is variable, but higher on average (4.79 MW km-2 ) than in Denmark (1.76 MW km-2 ). Austrian wind turbines have been installed in areas where the human impact on land is mostly higher than the Austrian average, while in Denmark, no difference is observed. Regarding the land use composite, the share of agricultural land on sites with wind turbines is on average much higher (86%), while the share of forest is much lower (7%) in both countries. We identified a maximum potential area in Czechia of 543 km2 with Austrian and 421 km2 with Danish characteristics. When conservatively assuming observed historical power densities, this area translates to 2295 MW and 741 MW of installed wind power capacity, respectively. These results are a magnitude of order lower than the potentials found in existing studies. In a sensitivity analysis, we have examined that the availability of potential sites depends mainly on the population density, the human impact on land, prevailing wind speeds, and the height above sea level. Conclusions: We estimated available land area for potential wind turbine installations in Czechia using our newly developed methodology based on observed site characteristics of today’s wind power infrastructure in Austria and Denmark. Available land area indicated possible overestimation of wind power capacities proposed in the recent studies on the renewable energy transition. Hence, more rigorous consideration of land availability is required for assessments of potential wind power expansion.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Significant inconsistency of vegetation carbon density in CMIP5 Earth system models against observational data

Abstract Earth system models (ESMs) have been widely used for projecting global vegetation carbon dynamics, yet how well ESMs performed for simulating vegetation carbon density remains untested. We compiled observational data of vegetation carbon density from literature and existing data sets to evaluate nine ESMs at site, biome, latitude, and global scales. Three variables—root (including fine and coarse roots), total vegetation carbon density, and the root:total vegetation carbon ratios (R/T ratios), were chosen for ESM evaluation. ESM models performed well in simulating the spatial distribution of carbon densities in root ( r = 0.71) and total vegetation ( r = 0.62). However, ESM models had significant biases in simulating absolute carbon densities in root and total vegetation biomass across the majority of land ecosystems, especially in tropical and arctic ecosystems. Particularly, ESMs significantly overestimated carbon density in root (183%) and total vegetation biomass (167%) in climate zones of 10°S–10°N. Substantial discrepancies between modeled and observed R/T ratios were found: the R/T ratios from ESMs were relatively constant, approximately 0.2 across all ecosystems, along latitudinal gradients, and in tropic, temperate, and arctic climatic zones, which was significantly different from the observed large variations in the R/T ratios (0.1–0.8). There were substantial inconsistencies between ESM‐derived carbon density in root and total vegetation biomass and the R/T ratio at multiple scales, indicating urgent needs for model improvements on carbon allocation algorithms and more intensive field campaigns targeting carbon density in all key vegetation components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Composition and Surface Area Variability in Ice Nucleation, and How to Get Rid of It

Ice nucleation active site densities and nucleation rates are commonly determined by measuring the fraction of droplets that freeze at different temperatures. In analysing these experiments it is commonly assumed that variability in the immersed particle surface area and composition within a sample can be neglected, allowing a simple parameterization of ice nucleation efficiencies. Here it is shown that these approximations may result in large error, and translate into a bias in estimated active site densities of about six orders of magnitude. When applied in cloud models it may represent up to 5 K error in cloud glaciation temperature. A solution to this enduring problem is proposed for the first time. It is shown that by performing droplet freezing experiments varying mean particle surface area along with the temperature such a bias can be quantitatively removed. This amounts to differentiating the "freezing rate'' from the ice nucleation coefficient, or, the apparent and the actual active site density of a material. The proposed method will contribute to reduce existing uncertainties in the relative strength of the ice nucleation ability of different aerosol species, and the modeling of mixed-phase clouds.

Barahona, Donifan↗

A physically consistent model for artificial dissipation in transonic potential flow computations

The effect that artificial dissipation has on numerical solutions of the transonic Full Potential Equation (FPE) are investigated by comparing the artificially dissipative FPE to a Physically Dissipative Potential (PDP) equation. Analytic expressions were derived from the variables C and M sub c that are used in the artificial density formulation. It was shown that these new values generate artificial dissipation which is equivalent to the physical dissipation existing in the PDP equation. The new expression for the variables C and M sub c can easily be incorporated into the existing full potential codes which are based either on the artificial density or on the artificial viscosity formulation. A comparison of Physically Dissipative Potential (PDP), Artificial Density or Viscosity (ADV), Artificial Mass Flux (AMF), and ADV with variable C and M sub c formulation (MCC) is also presented.

Dulikravich, George S.↗

Preliminary scaling laws for plasma current, ion kinetic temperature, and plasma number density in the NASA Lewis Bumpy Torus plasma

Parametric variation of independent variables which may affect the characteristics of the NASA Lewis Bumpy Torus plasma have identified those which have a significant effect on the plasma current, ion kinetic temperature, and plasma number density, and those which do not. Empirical power-law correlations of the plasma current, and the ion kinetic temperature and number density were obtained as functions of the potential applied to the midplane electrode rings, the background neutral gas pressure, and the magnetic field strength. Additional parameters studied include the type of gas, the polarity of the midplane electrode rings (and hence the direction of the radial electric field), the mode of plasma operation, and the method of measuring the plasma number density. No significant departures from the scaling laws appear to occur at the highest ion kinetic temperatures or number densities obtained to date.

Roth, J. R.↗

The Importance of Viscous and Interfacial Forces in the Hydrodynamics of the Top-Submerged-Lance Furnace

The purpose of this work is to focus on the hydrodynamics of a Top-Submerged-Lance (TSL) smelting furnace, understanding how liquid properties and operational parameters act on key factors of a TSL process, such as splashing, mixing, mass transfer area, and bubble development. A deep knowledge of all those aspects is needed since they all influence the smelting reaction rates; hence the efficiency of the reactor. The characterization and scaling of the TSL gas injection are commonly based on the modified Froude number, the ratio of dynamic and gravitational forces. Detailed literature research reveals a potential weakness of this approach, since it does not consider the effects of viscosity and surface tension. To investigate this question an extensive parametric study was performed applying computational fluid dynamics to cold and non-reactive flows, which provided a broad overview of the physics of the flow. The analysis was performed on fluid dynamic properties (liquid density, liquid viscosity, surface tension) and operational variables (gas volume flow, lance immersion depth). The coupled Level Set—Volume of Fluid model, available in the commercial solver ANSYS Fluent{sup ®}, was used to resolve the gas–liquid interface in the multiphase flow. The results of the work underscore the significance of the viscous and interfacial forces for gas injection in smelting slags, confirming the incompleteness of applying only the Froude number to describe such flows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quasar Identification Using Multivariate Probability Density Estimated from Nonparametric Conditional Probabilities

Nonparametric estimation for a probability density function that describes multivariate data has typically been addressed by kernel density estimation (KDE). A novel density estimator recently developed by Farmer and Jacobs offers an alternative high-throughput automated approach to univariate nonparametric density estimation based on maximum entropy and order statistics, improving accuracy over univariate KDE. This article presents an extension of the single variable case to multiple variables. The univariate estimator is used to recursively calculate a product array of one-dimensional conditional probabilities. In combination with interpolation methods, a complete joint probability density estimate is generated for multiple variables. Good accuracy and speed performance in synthetic data are demonstrated by a numerical study using known distributions over a range of sample sizes from 100 to 10 6 for two to six variables. Performance in terms of speed and accuracy is compared to KDE. The multivariate density estimate developed here tends to perform better as the number of samples and/or variables increases. As an example application, measurements are analyzed over five filters of photometric data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 17. The multivariate estimation is used to form the basis for a binary classifier that distinguishes quasars from galaxies and stars with up to 94% accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Creation of a High-Yield AAV Vector Production Platform in Suspension Cells Using a Design-of-Experiment Approach

Recombinant adeno-associated virus (rAAV) vectors are a leading gene delivery platform, but vector manufacturing remains a challenge. New methods are needed to increase rAAV yields and reduce costs. Past efforts to improve rAAV production have focused on optimizing a single variable at a time, but this approach does not account for the interactions of multiple factors that contribute to vector generation. Here, we utilized a design-of-experiment (DOE) methodology to optimize rAAV production in a HEK293T suspension cell system. We simultaneously varied the transgene, packaging, and helper plasmid ratios, the total DNA concentration, and the cell density to systematically evaluate the impact of each variable across 52 conditions. The results revealed a unique set of parameters with a lower concentration of transgene plasmid, a higher concentration of packaging plasmid, and a higher cell density than previously described protocols. Using this DOE-optimized protocol, we achieved unpurified yields approaching 3 × 10 14 viral genomes (VGs)/L of cell culture. Additionally, we incorporated polyethylene glycol (PEG)-based virus precipitation, pH-mediated protein removal, and affinity chromatography to our downstream processing, enabling average purified yields of >1 × 10 14 VGs/L for rAAV-EGFPs across 13 serotypes and capsid variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of magnetic fluctuations in L-H and H-L transition dynamics on DIII-D

The dynamics of the L-H transition is not fully understood, with many parameters changing the threshold power to enter H-mode and the self-regulation between zonal flows and turbulence in the plasma edge. This paper is primarily a presentation of experimental results for DIII-D L-H and H-L transitions and speculation on the observations made. Power threshold analysis and measurements of pedestal temperatures for these transitions are presented. A comparison is made between an L-H transition and H-L transition of comparable Psep exhibiting oscillatory behaviour, showing symmetry between forward and backward transition dynamics. This paper shows the first observations of magnetic fluctuations during L-H and H-L transitions on DIII-D, and shows that L-H and H-L transitions have similar magnetic fluctuation dynamics. Information geometry analysis has been performed on measurements of plasma density fluctuations, perpendicular plasma velocity fluctuations, and magnetic field fluctuations to investigate the self-regulation and evolution of these variables during the transitions. Perpendicular flow evolution is shown to dominate the transition dynamics in both directions, but self-regulation behaviour is observed between all three variables. A strong correlation between magnetic fluctuation information rate and density fluctuation information rate for these two shots shows the strong influence of magnetic behaviour on both the L-H and H-L transition, and that these transition dynamics necessarily include electromagnetic effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Model of Reduced Kinetics for Alkane Oxidation Using Constituents and Species for N-Heptane

The reduction of elementary or skeletal oxidation kinetics to a subgroup of tractable reactions for inclusion in turbulent combustion codes has been the subject of numerous studies. The skeletal mechanism is obtained from the elementary mechanism by removing from it reactions that are considered negligible for the intent of the specific study considered. As of now, there are many chemical reduction methodologies. A methodology for deriving a reduced kinetic mechanism for alkane oxidation is described and applied to n-heptane. The model is based on partitioning the species of the skeletal kinetic mechanism into lights, defined as those having a carbon number smaller than 3, and heavies, which are the complement of the species ensemble. For modeling purposes, the heavy species are mathematically decomposed into constituents, which are similar but not identical to groups in the group additivity theory. From analysis of the LLNL (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) skeletal mechanism in conjunction with CHEMKIN II, it is shown that a similarity variable can be formed such that the appropriately non-dimensionalized global constituent molar density exhibits a self-similar behavior over a very wide range of equivalence ratios, initial pressures and initial temperatures that is of interest for predicting n-heptane oxidation. Furthermore, the oxygen and water molar densities are shown to display a quasi-linear behavior with respect to the similarity variable. The light species ensemble is partitioned into quasi-steady and unsteady species. The reduced model is based on concepts consistent with those of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) in which functional forms are used to replace the small scales eliminated through filtering of the governing equations; in LES, these small scales are unimportant as far as the overwhelming part of dynamic energy is concerned. Here, the scales thought unimportant for recovering the thermodynamic energy are removed. The concept is tested by using tabular information from the LLNL skeletal mechanism in conjunction with CHEMKIN II utilized as surrogate ideal functions replacing the necessary functional forms. The test reveals that the similarity concept is indeed justified and that the combustion temperature is well predicted, but that the ignition time is over-predicted, a fact traced to neglecting a detailed description of the processes leading to the heavies chemical decomposition. To palliate this deficiency, functional modeling is incorporated into this conceptual reduction in addition to the modeling the evolution of the global constituent molar density, the enthalpy evolution of the heavies, the contribution to the reaction rate of the unsteady lights from other light species and from the heavies, the molar density evolution of oxygen and water, and the mole fractions of the quasisteady light species. The model is compact in that there are only nine species-related progress variables. Results are presented showing the performance of the model for predicting the temperature and species evolution. The model reproduces the ignition time over a wide range of equivalence ratios, initial pressure, and initial temperature.

Harstad, Kenneth G.↗

Gravity waves

Gravity waves contributed to the establishment of the thermal structure, small scale (80 to 100 km) fluctuations in velocity (50 to 80 m/sec) and density (20 to 30%, 0 to peak). Dominant gravity wave spectrum in the middle atmosphere: x-scale, less than 100 km; z-scale, greater than 10 km; t-scale, less than 2 hr. Theorists are beginning to understand middle atmosphere motions. There are two classes: Planetary waves and equatorial motions, gravity waves and tidal motions. The former give rise to variability at large scales, which may alter apparent mean structure. Effects include density and velocity fluctuations, induced mean motions, and stratospheric warmings which lead to the breakup of the polar vortex and cooling of the mesosphere. On this scale are also equatorial quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations. Gravity wave and tidal motions produce large rms fluctuations in density and velocity. The magnitude of the density fluctuations compared to the mean density is of the order of the vertical wavelength, which grows with height. Relative density fluctuations are less than, or of the order of 30% below the mesopause. Such motions may cause significant and variable convection, and wind shear. There is a strong seasonal variation in gravity wave amplitude. Additional observations are needed to address and quantify mean and fluctuation statistics of both density and mean velocity, variability of the mean and fluctuations, and to identify dominant gravity wave scales and sources as well as causes of variability, both temporal and geographic.

Fritts, David↗

The effect of dust bias on the census of neutral gas and metals in the high-redshift Universe due to SDSS-II quasar colour selection

ABSTRACT We present a systematic study of the impact of a dust bias on samples of damped Ly α absorbers (DLAs). This bias arises as an effect of the magnitude and colour criteria utilized in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) quasar target selection up until data release 7 (DR7). The bias has previously been quantified assuming only a contribution from the dust obscuration. In this work, we apply the full set of magnitude and colour criteria used up until SDSS-DR7 in order to quantify the full impact of dust biasing against dusty and metal-rich DLAs. We apply the quasar target selection algorithm on a modelled population of intrinsic colours, and by exploring the parameter space consisting of redshift, ($z_{\rm{\small QSO}}$and zabs), optical extinction, and H i column density, we demonstrate how the selection probability depends on these variables. We quantify the dust bias on the following properties derived for DLAs at z ≈ 3: the incidence rate, the mass density of neutral hydrogen and metals, and the average metallicity. We find that all quantities are significantly affected. When considering all uncertainties, the mass density of neutral hydrogen is underestimated by 10–50 per cent, and the mass density in metals is underestimated by 30–200 per cent. Lastly, we find that the bias depends on redshift. At redshift z = 2.2, the mass density of neutral hydrogen and metals might be underestimated by up to a factor of 2 and 5, respectively. Characterizing such a bias is crucial in order to accurately interpret and model the properties and metallicity evolution of absorption-selected galaxies.

Krogager, Jens-Kristian↗