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At least 811 records · Page 45

Survey of prospective techniques for molten salt reactor feed monitoring

Safeguards verification measurements of nuclear material content in fresh fuel salt for liquid-fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs) are likely to be required as part of nuclear material accountancy for International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. Here, this paper presents a comprehensive review and evaluation of 18 potential candidate techniques to quantify total uranium and 235 U for input accountancy measurements for liquid-fueled MSRs. As part of an overall screening and down-selection effort to identify the most promising techniques for further development for an MSR feed monitoring system, this paper defines eight figures of merit (FOMs): reasonably achievable measurement uncertainty, measurement time required, capital cost, burden upon the facility operator, maintenance intensity, technological maturity, human capital requirements for operation, and whether the technique introduces a path for potential material removal. Each candidate technique is then evaluated across these FOMs to identify the techniques with the highest potential for future development for fresh fuel accountancy measurements in MSRs. Our findings indicate that no single technique or combination thereof currently has the requisite technological maturity for immediate implementation in nuclear material accountancy at a liquid-fueled MSR facility. While several promising techniques are identified, there is a critical lack of experimental data for most systems in the context of molten salt applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Assessing the urban carbon footprint: An overview

All cities present environmental sustainability issues, above all regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and specifically carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), that directly affect climate change. Consequently, it is very important to quantify and report their Carbon Footprint (CF) for implementing national and international policies/strategies aimed at mitigating and adapting these concerns. The Urban Carbon Footprint (UCF), indeed, has been recognized as the more valuable choice to inform, specifically, decision makers about city environmental sustainability. Several accounting systems and inventory methods have been taken into account to perform UCF, highlighting the complexity of the topic and generating very often confusion among users. In this context, the authors aim to summarize what has been done and what is going on with UCFs, trying to classify them according to some principal dimensions. Thus, they divide UFCs in two main categories namely: “spatial” or “direct”, with a limited amount of data requested, and “economic” or “life cycle based”, more or less data inclusive according to the accounting systems considered. Furthermore, they observe that there is not a “global agreed-upon protocol” yet, neither is there a specific model shared among researchers, even if some steps have been made towards this direction (Relative Carbon Footprint - RCF, Publicly Available Specification – PAS 2070 and Global Protocol for Community scale - GPC). Consequently, it is necessary to complete and standardize, in the short term, the accounting and reporting frameworks, in order to compare different UCFs for adopting shared climate strategies and actions at global level. - Highlights: •Cities present environmental sustainability issues. •GHG emissions - specifically carbon dioxide - directly affect climate change. •UCF is a tool to support policy makers towards city environmental sustainability. •There is not a “global agreed-upon protocol” to perform UFC. •There are still missing points to be considered to provide a sharing model.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Correcting the z ∼ 8 galaxy luminosity function for gravitational lensing magnification bias

We present a Bayesian framework to account for the magnification bias from both strong and weak gravitational lensing in estimates of high-redshift galaxy luminosity functions (LFs). We illustrate our method by estimating the z ∼ 8 UV LF using a sample of 97 Y-band dropouts (Lyman break galaxies) found in the Brightest of Reionizing Galaxies (BoRG) survey and from the literature. We find the LF is well described by a Schechter function with characteristic magnitude of M{sup ⋆}=−19.85{sub −0.35}{sup +0.30}, faint-end slope of α=−1.72{sub −0.29}{sup +0.30}, and number density of log{sub 10}Ψ{sup ⋆}(Mpc{sup −3})=−3.00{sub −0.31}{sup +0.23}. These parameters are consistent within the uncertainties with those inferred from the same sample without accounting for the magnification bias, demonstrating that the effect is small for current surveys at z ∼ 8, and cannot account for the apparent overdensity of bright galaxies compared to a Schechter function found recently by Bowler et al. and Finkelstein et al. We estimate that the probability of finding a strongly lensed z ∼ 8 source in our sample is in the range ∼3–15% depending on limiting magnitude. We identify one strongly lensed candidate and three cases of intermediate lensing in BoRG (estimated magnification μ > 1.4) in addition to the previously known candidate group-scale strong lens. Using a range of theoretical LFs we conclude that magnification bias will dominate wide field surveys—such as those planned for the Euclid and WFIRST missions—especially at z > 10. Magnification bias will need to be accounted for in order to derive accurate estimates of high-redshift LFs in these surveys and to distinguish between galaxy formation models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A characterization of robust radiation therapy treatment planning methods-from expected value to worst case optimization

Purpose: To characterize a class of optimization formulations used to handle systematic and random errors in radiation therapy, and to study the differences between the methods within this class. Methods: The class of robust methods that can be formulated as minimax stochastic programs is studied. This class generalizes many previously used methods, ranging between optimization of the expected and the worst case objective value. The robust methods are used to plan intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) treatments for a case subject to systematic setup and range errors, random setup errors with and without uncertain probability distribution, and combinations thereof. As reference, plans resulting from a conventional method that uses a margin to account for errors are shown. Results: For all types of errors, target coverage robustness increased with the conservativeness of the method. For systematic errors, best case organ at risk (OAR) doses increased and worst case doses decreased with the conservativeness. Accounting for random errors of fixed probability distribution resulted in heterogeneous dose. The heterogeneities were reduced when uncertainty in the probability distribution was accounted for. Doing so, the OAR doses decreased with the conservativeness. All robust methods studied resulted in more robust target coverage and lower OAR doses than the conventional method. Conclusions: Accounting for uncertainties is essential to ensure plan quality in complex radiation therapy such as IMPT. The utilization of more information than conventional in the optimization can lead to robust target coverage and low OAR doses. Increased target coverage robustness can be achieved by more conservative methods.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Projected Growth in Small-Scale, Fossil-Fueled Distributed Generation: Potential Implications for the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory

The generation capacity of small-scale (less than one megawatt) fossil-fueled electricity in the United States is anticipated to grow by threefold to twenty-fold from 2015 to 2040. However, in adherence with internationally agreed upon carbon accounting methods, the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) U.S. Greenhouse Inventory (GHGI) does not currently attribute greenhouse gases (GHGs) from these small-scale distributed generation sources to the electric power sector and instead accounts for these emissions in the sector that uses the distributed generation (e.g., the commercial sector). In addition, no other federal electric-sector GHG emission data product produced by the EPA or the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) can attribute these emissions to electricity. We reviewed the technical documentation for eight federal electric-sector GHG emission data products, interviewed the data product owners, collected their GHG emission estimates, and analyzed projections for growth in fossil-fueled distributed generation. We show that, by 2040, these small-scale generators could account for at least about 1%- 5% of total CO2 emissions from the U.S. electric power sector. If these emissions fall outside the electric power sector, the United States may not be able to completely and accurately track changes in electricity-related CO2 emissions, which could impact how the country sets GHG reduction targets and allocates mitigation resources. Because small-scale, fossil-fueled distributed generation is expected to grow in other countries as well, the results of this work also have implications for global carbon accounting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Natural Capital Management: An Evolutionary Paradigm for Sustainable Restoration Investment - 13455

Unlike other forms of capital assets (built infrastructure, labor, financial capital), the supply of usable or accessible air, land, and water elements (termed Natural Capital Assets or NCA) available to enterprise processes is structurally shrinking due to increased demand and regulatory restriction. This supply/demand imbalance is affecting all forms of public and private enterprise (including Federal Facilities) in the form of encroachment, production limits, cost increases, and reduced competitiveness. Department of Energy (DOE) sites are comprised of significant stocks of NCA that function as both conserved capital (providing ecosystem services and other reserve capacity), and as natural infrastructure (supporting major Federal enterprise programs). The current rubric of 'Environmental Stewardship' provides an unduly constrained management paradigm that is focused largely on compliance process metrics, and lacks a value platform for quantifying, documenting, and sustainably re-deploying re-capitalized natural asset capacity and capability. By adopting value-based system concepts similar to built infrastructure accounting and information management, 'stewarded' natural assets relegated to liability- or compliance-focused outcomes become 're-capitalized' operational assets able to support new or expanded mission. This growing need for new accounting and management paradigms to capture natural capital value is achieving global recognition, most recently by the United Nations, world leaders, and international corporations at the Rio+20 Summit in June of 2012. Natural Capital Asset Management (NCAM){sup TM} is such an accounting framework tool. Using a quantification-based design, NCAM{sup TM} provides inventory, capacity and value data to owners or managers of natural assets such as the DOE that parallel comparable information systems currently used for facility assets. Applied to Environmental Management (EM) and other DOE program activities, the natural asset capacity and value generated by EM projects and other investment and operational programming can be recorded and then allocated to mission and/or ecosystem needs as part of overall site, complex, and Federal decision-making. NCAM{sup TM} can also document post-restoration asset capability and value for use in weighing loss mitigation and ecosystem damage claims arising from past operational activities. A prototype NCAM{sup TM} evaluation developed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) demonstrates use of this framework as an advanced paradigm for NCA accounting and decision-making for the larger DOE complex and other enterprise using natural capital in operations. Applying a quantified value paradigm, the framework catalogues the results of activities that sustain, restore, and modernize natural assets for enterprise-wide value beyond that of compliance milestones. Capturing and assigning recapitalization value using NCAM{sup TM} concepts and tools improves effective reuse of taxpayer-sustained assets, records ecosystem service value, enables mission and enterprise optimization, and assures the sustainability of shared natural capital assets in regional pools vital to both complex sites and local and regional economies. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Improving representation of convective transport for scale‐aware parameterization: 2. Analysis of cloud‐resolving model simulations

Abstract Following Part I, in which 3‐D cloud‐resolving model (CRM) simulations of a squall line and mesoscale convective complex in the midlatitude continental and the tropical regions are conducted and evaluated, we examine the scale dependence of eddy transport of water vapor, evaluate different eddy transport formulations, and improve the representation of convective transport across all scales by proposing a new formulation that more accurately represents the CRM‐calculated eddy flux. CRM results show that there are strong grid‐spacing dependencies of updraft and downdraft fractions regardless of altitudes, cloud life stage, and geographical location. As for the eddy transport of water vapor, updraft eddy flux is a major contributor to total eddy flux in the lower and middle troposphere. However, downdraft eddy transport can be as large as updraft eddy transport in the lower atmosphere especially at the mature stage of midlatitude continental convection. We show that the single‐updraft approach significantly underestimates updraft eddy transport of water vapor because it fails to account for the large internal variability of updrafts, while a single downdraft represents the downdraft eddy transport of water vapor well. We find that using as few as three updrafts can account for the internal variability of updrafts well. Based on the evaluation with the CRM simulated data, we recommend a simplified eddy transport formulation that considers three updrafts and one downdraft. Such formulation is similar to the conventional one but much more accurately represents CRM‐simulated eddy flux across all grid scales.

Liu, Yi‐Chin↗

Work stealing for GPU-accelerated parallel programs in a global address space framework

Task parallelism is an attractive approach to automatically load balance the computation in a parallel system and adapt to dynamism exhibited by parallel systems. Exploiting task parallelism through work stealing has been extensively studied in shared and distributed-memory contexts. In this paper, we study the design of a system that uses work stealing for dynamic load balancing of task-parallel programs executed on hybrid distributed-memory CPU-graphics processing unit (GPU) systems in a global-address space framework. We take into account the unique nature of the accelerator model employed by GPUs, the significant performance difference between GPU and CPU execution as a function of problem size, and the distinct CPU and GPU memory domains. We consider various alternatives in designing a distributed work stealing algorithm for CPU-GPU systems, while taking into account the impact of task distribution and data movement overheads. These strategies are evaluated using microbenchmarks that capture various execution configurations as well as the state-of-the-art CCSD(T) application module from the computational chemistry domain

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Interdisciplinary Approaches Improve Understanding of Cryptogenic Species: A Historical Case Study of Crayfish in Montana, USA

ABSTRACT Cryptogenic species are those that are not yet “demonstrably native or introduced” in a given area, such as crayfish in western Montana, USA. Delving into evidence from diverse fields can help clarify the status of cryptogenic species. Primary historical sources and indigenous knowledge have informed various ecological questions but are seldom used to clarify the status of cryptogenic species, especially aquatic taxa. We summarize types of evidence used to illuminate species status and offer a case study applying historical sources to cryptogenic crayfish in Montana. We searched for crayfish mentions in dictionaries of indigenous languages and primary historical documents (e.g., travel journals, newspaper accounts, early biological surveys). Early explorer accounts we examined did not mention crayfish in Montana, though they noted them in the nearby Snake River drainage of Idaho and Wyoming. The first mention of crayfish in Montana that we found was from an 1868 newspaper account, probably referencing the upper Missouri River. The species was not noted, but an 1887 article suggested signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus introductions near Bozeman, where non‐native signal crayfish still persist. The earliest crayfish mention we found west of the Great Divide in Montana was from 1934 in Ninepipes and probably referred to non‐native virile crayfish ( Faxonius virilis ). Signal crayfish were not mentioned west of the Divide until a 1944 newspaper account noted their 1937 introduction to the Bitterroot River drainage. The case study demonstrates the value of historical sources in identifying the absence of species and documenting their presence or introduction during periods predating scientific data.

Kennedy, Hampton L. [USDA Forest Service, Southern↗

Nanopore occlusion: A biophysical mechanism for bipolar cancellation in cell membranes

Highlights: • Cell experiments show that a first electrical pulse can be partially reversed by a second pulse. • Bipolar cancellation (BPC) of electrical effects in cells has defied biophysical mechanistic explanation. • For the first time we describe a successful model based on biophysical mechanisms. • The model's basis is {sup o}cclusion of nanopores{sup }by external molecules. • The model may be sufficiently general that BPC will prove to be essentially universal (BPC). Extraordinarily large but short electric field pulses are reported by many experiments to cause bipolar cancellation (BPC). This unusual cell response occurs if a first pulse is followed by a second pulse with opposite polarity. Possibly universal, BPC presently lacks a mechanistic explanation. Multiple versions of the “standard model” of cell electroporation (EP) fail to account for BPC. Here we show, for the first time, how an extension of the standard model can account for a key experimental observation that essentially defines BPC: the amount of a tracer that enters a cell, and how tracer influx can be decreased by the second part of a bipolar pulse. The extended model can also account for the recovery of BPC wherein the extent of BPC is diminished if the spacing between the first and second pulses is increased. Our approach is reverse engineering, meaning that we identify and introduce an additional biophysical mechanism that allows pore transport to change. We hypothesize that occluding molecules from outside the membrane enter or relocate within a pore. Significantly, the additional mechanism is fundamental and general, involving a combination of partitioning and hindrance. Molecules near the membrane can enter pores to block transport of tracer molecules while still passing small ions (charge number ±1) that govern electrical behavior. Our extension of the standard model accounts for key BPC behavior.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling of Cd adsorption to goethite-bacteria composites

The accurate modeling of heavy metal adsorption in complex systems is fundamental for risk assess-ments in soils and associated environments. Bacteria-iron (hydr)oxide associations in soils and sedi-ments play a critical role in heavy metal immobilization. The reduced adsorption of heavy metals on these composites have been widely reported using the component additivity (CA) method. However, there is a lack of a mechanism model to account for these deviations. In this study, we established models for Cd adsorption on goethite-Pseudomonas putida composites at 1:1 and 5:1 mass ratios. Cadmium adsorption on the 5:1 composite was consistent with the additivity method. However, the CA method over predicted Cd adsorption by approximately 8% on the 1:1 composite at high Cd concentration. The deviation was corrected by adding the site blockage reactions between P. putida and goethite. Both CA and “CA-site masking” models for Cd adsorption onto the composites were in line with the ITC data. These results indicate that CA method in simulating Cd adsorption on bacteria-iron oxides composites is limited to low bacterial and Cd concentrations. Therefore the interfacial complexation reactions that occur between iron (hydr)oxides and bacteria should be taken into account when high concentrations of bacteria and heavy metals are present.

Qu, Chenchen↗

Validation of Building Energy Modeling Tools Under Idealized and Realistic Conditions

Building energy models provide valuable insight into the energy use of commercial and residential buildings based on the building architecture, materials and thermal loads. They are used in the design of new buildings and the retrofitting to increase the efficiency of older buildings. The accuracy of these models is crucial to reducing the energy use of the United States and building a sustainable energy future. In addition to the architecture and thermal loads of a building, building energy models also must account for the effects of the building's occupants on the energy use of the building. Traditionally simple schedule based methods have been used to account for the effects of the occupants. However, newer research has shown that these methods often result in large differences between the modeled and actual energy use of buildings. In this paper we discuss building energy models and their accuracy in predicting building energy use. In particular we focus on the different types of validation methods which have been used to investigate the accuracy of building energy models and how they account for (or do not account for) the effects of occupants. We also review some of the newer work on stochastic methods for estimating the effects of occupants on building energy use and discuss the improvements necessary to increase the accuracy of building energy models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Fatigue crack growth rates of X100 steel welds in high pressure hydrogen gas considering residual stress effects

Fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR) data were measured in high pressure hydrogen gas versus stress intensity factor range (ΔK) in specimens removed from a X100 welded steel pipe. Three distinct regions of the pipe weld were examined: base metal, weld fusion zone, and heat affected zone. Tests were performed at a load ratio (R) of 0.5, frequency of 1 Hz, and at a hydrogen gas pressure of 21 MPa. Tests were also performed in air at 10 Hz as a reference. Fatigue crack growth rates were observed to be over an order of magnitude higher for tests performed in hydrogen compared to the rates from tests in air. Residual stress measurements were collected on identical specimens cut from the base metal, weld, and heat affected zone to account for their influence on measured FCGR data. The slitting method provided residual stress and residual stress intensity factor (K res ), the effect of which was removed from the FCGR data using K norm in order to provide a more direct comparison of crack growth resistance of the base metal, weld and heat affected zone. Prior to accounting for residual stress, FCGR in hydrogen gas appeared to be highest in the weld fusion zone. Furthermore, after accounting for residual stress effects, the weld fusion zone FCGR data converged to the base metal FCGR data, which underscores the importance of accounting for residual stress effects when assessing fatigue performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Greenhouse gas emissions from production chain of a cigarette manufacturing industry in Pakistan

This study quantified greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Pakistan Tobacco Company (PTC) production using a life cycle approach. The PTC production chain comprises of two phases: agricultural activities (Phase I) and industrial activities (Phase II). Data related to agricultural and industrial activities of PTC production chain were collected through questionnaire survey from tobacco growers and records from PTC manufacturing units. The results showed that total GHG emissions from PTC production chain were 44,965, 42,875, and 43,839 tCO{sub 2}e respectively in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Among the agricultural activities, firewood burning for tobacco curing accounted for about 3117, 3565, and 3264 tCO{sub 2}e, fertilizer application accounted for 754, 3251, and 4761 tCO{sub 2}e in 2009, 2010, and 2011, respectively. Among the industrial activities, fossil fuels consumption in stationary sources accounted for 15,582, 12,733, and 13,203 tCO{sub 2}e, fossil fuels used in mobile sources contributed to 2693, 3038, and 3260 tCO{sub 2}e, and purchased electricity consumed resulted in 15,177, 13,556, and 11,380 tCO{sub 2}e in 2009, 2010, and 2011, respectively. The GHG emissions related to the transportation of raw materials and processed tobacco amounted to 6800, 6301, and 7317 respectively in 2009, 2010, and 2011. GHG emissions from energy use in the industrial activities constituted the largest emissions (i.e., over 80%) of GHG emissions as PTC relies on fossil fuels and fossil fuel based electrical power in industrial processes. The total emissions of carbon footprint (CFP) from PTC production were 0.647 tCO{sub 2}e per million cigarettes produced in 2009, 0.675 tCO{sub 2}e per million cigarettes in 2010 and 0.59 tCO{sub 2}e per million cigarettes in 2011. Potential strategies for GHG emissions reductions for PTC production chain include energy efficiency, reducing reliance on fossil fuels in non-mobile sources, adoption of renewable fuels including solar energy, energy from crop residues, and promotion of organic fertilizers. - Highlights: • We quantified greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Pakistan Tobacco Company (PTC). • PTC production chain comprises of two phases: agricultural and industrial activities. • GHG emissions accounts to 44,965, 42,875 and 43,839 tCO{sub 2}e in 2009, 2010, and 2011, respectively. • GHG emissions from energy use in the industrial activities constituted the largest emissions i.e. 80%. • Implications for GHG emissions mitigation strategies for PTC are also discussed in detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon footprint as an environmental sustainability indicator for the particleboard produced in Pakistan

This study quantified the carbon footprint of particleboard production in Pakistan using a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment approach. The system boundary comprised raw materials acquisition, transport, particleboard manufacture and finished product distribution. Primary data were collected through surveys and meetings with particleboard manufacturers. Secondary data were taken from the literature. Greenhouse gas emissions from off-site industrial operations of the particleboard industry represented 52% of the total emissions from the production of 1.0 m{sup 3} of particleboard in Pakistan. The on-site industrial operations cause direct greenhouse gas emissions and accounted for 48% of the total emissions. These operations included energy consumption in stationary sources, the company-owned vehicle fleet, and the distribution and marketing of the finished product. The use of natural gas combustion in the stationary and mobile sources, raw material transport and urea-formaldehyde resin production chain accounted for the highest emissions from the particleboard production chain in Pakistan. The identification of the major hotspots in the particleboard production chain can assist the wood panel industry to improve their environmental profile. More efforts are needed to investigate the urea-formaldehyde resin production chain and substitution of roundwood with wood and agri-residues to assess the potential improvements. In addition, renewable energy sources should be encouraged to avoid greenhouse gas emissions by substituting fossil energy. This study also provides a benchmark for future research work to formulate comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions reduction plans, because no previous research work is available on the carbon footprint of particleboard production in Pakistan. - Highlights: • We conducted the first carbon footprint assessment of particleboard produced in Pakistan. • System boundary comprised raw materials acquisition, particleboard manufacture and distribution. • Off-site industrial operations were accounted for highest emissions (52%) followed by on-site operations (48%). • Natural gas, materials transport and UF resin use accounted for highest emissions. • Identified potential strategies for GHG emissions reductions from PB production in Pakistan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanism-based modeling of solute strengthening: Application to thermal creep in Zr alloy

In this paper, a crystallographic thermal creep model is proposed for Zr alloys that accounts for the hardening contribution of solutes via their time-dependent pinning effect on dislocations. The core-diffusion model proposed by Soare and Curtin (2008a) is coupled with a recently proposed constitutive modeling framework (Wang et al., 2017, 2016) accounting for the heterogeneous distribution of internal stresses within grains. The Coble creep mechanism is also included. This model is, in turn, embedded in the effective medium crystallographic VPSC framework and used to predict creep strain evolution of polycrystals under different temperature and stress conditions. The simulation results reproduce the experimental creep data for Zircaloy-4 and the transition between the low (n~1), intermediate (n~4) and high (n~9) power law creep regimes. This is achieved through the dependence on local aging time of the solute-dislocation binding energy. The anomalies in strain rate sensitivity (SRS) are discussed in terms of core-diffusion effects on dislocation junction strength. The mechanism-based model captures the primary and secondary creep regimes results reported by Kombaiah and Murty (2015a, 2015b) for a comprehensive set of testing conditions covering the 500–600 °C interval, stresses spanning 14–156 MPa, and steady state creep rates varying between 1.5·10 -9 s -1 to 2·10 -3 s -1 . There are two major advantages to this model with respect to more empirical ones used as constitutive laws for describing thermal creep of cladding: 1) specific dependences on the nature of solutes and their concentrations are explicitly accounted for; 2) accident conditions in reactors, such as RIA and LOCA, usually take place in short times, and deformation takes place in the primary, not the steady-state creep stage. Finally, as a consequence, a model that accounts for the evolution with time of microstructure is more reliable for this kind of simulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic MRI Analysis of Tumor and Organ Motion During Rest and Deglutition and Margin Assessment for Radiotherapy of Head-and-Neck Cancer

Purpose: To quantify swallowing frequency and tumor and normal structure displacements during deglutition using dynamic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to determine planning target volume (PTV) margins to account for resting and deglutition-induced displacements in patients with head-and-neck cancer (HNC). Methods and Materials: Twenty-two patients with HNC were imaged in the treatment position using dynamic MRI. Sagittal images were acquired. Two-dimensional displacement was analyzed using contours of normal structures and GTV drawn for one swallowing event. Deglutition-induced displacements were quantified based on position change during deglutition relative to preswallow structure location for anterior (A), posterior (P), superior (S), and inferior (I) directions. Additional long-time MRI series were obtained from a subset of 11 patients while they were resting in order to determine swallowing frequency and duration. PTV margins to account for setup error, frequency and duration of deglutition, and resting and deglutition-induced GTV motion were calculated. Results: Mean maximum resting displacements ranged from 1.5 to 3.1 mm for combined GTV subsites. Mean maximum swallowing GTV displacement for combined subsites ranged from 4.0 to 11.6 mm. Swallowing was nonperiodic, with a frequency ranging from 0 to 19 swallows over 12.8 min and mean swallow duration of 3.5 s. Based on the average swallowing characteristics in this cohort, the average PTV margins to account for setup error and tumor motion are estimated to be 4.7 mm anteriorly, 4.2 mm posteriorly, 4.7 mm inferiorly, and 6.0 mm superiorly. Conclusions: The measurable mean maximum resting displacement for the GTV indicates that tumor motion occurs even when the patient is not swallowing. Nonuniform margins should be used as a standard PTV margin that accounts for setup error and tumor motion in radiotherapy of HNC unless adaptive radiotherapy with respect to intrafraction tumor motion is performed. The PTV margin can be individualized to a single patient's swallowing characteristics or calculated as an average based on the swallowing data from the cohort.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Coarse-graining and hybrid methods for efficient simulation of stochastic multi-scale models of tumour growth

The development of hybrid methodologies is of current interest in both multi-scale modelling and stochastic reaction–diffusion systems regarding their applications to biology. We formulate a hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends the remit of existing hybrid methods for reaction–diffusion systems. Such method is developed for a stochastic multi-scale model of tumour growth, i.e. population-dynamical models which account for the effects of intrinsic noise affecting both the number of cells and the intracellular dynamics. In order to formulate this method, we develop a coarse-grained approximation for both the full stochastic model and its mean-field limit. Such approximation involves averaging out the age-structure (which accounts for the multi-scale nature of the model) by assuming that the age distribution of the population settles onto equilibrium very fast. We then couple the coarse-grained mean-field model to the full stochastic multi-scale model. By doing so, within the mean-field region, we are neglecting noise in both cell numbers (population) and their birth rates (structure). This implies that, in addition to the issues that arise in stochastic-reaction diffusion systems, we need to account for the age-structure of the population when attempting to couple both descriptions. We exploit our coarse-graining model so that, within the mean-field region, the age-distribution is in equilibrium and we know its explicit form. This allows us to couple both domains consistently, as upon transference of cells from the mean-field to the stochastic region, we sample the equilibrium age distribution. Furthermore, our method allows us to investigate the effects of intracellular noise, i.e. fluctuations of the birth rate, on collective properties such as travelling wave velocity. We show that the combination of population and birth-rate noise gives rise to large fluctuations of the birth rate in the region at the leading edge of front, which cannot be accounted for by the coarse-grained model. Such fluctuations have non-trivial effects on the wave velocity. Beyond the development of a new hybrid method, we thus conclude that birth-rate fluctuations are central to a quantitatively accurate description of invasive phenomena such as tumour growth. - Highlights: • A hybrid method for stochastic multi-scale models of cells populations that extends existing hybrid methods for reaction–diffusion system. • Our analysis unveils non-trivial macroscopic effects triggered by noise at the level of structuring variables. • Our hybrid method hugely speeds up age-structured SSA simulations while preserving stochastic effects.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗