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Gravitational model improvement at the Goddard Space Flight Center

Major new computations of terrestrial gravitational field models were performed by the Geodynamics Branch of Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). This development has incorporated the present state of the art results in satellite geodesy and have relied upon a more consistent set of reference constants than was heretofore utilized in GSFC's GEM models. The solutions are complete in spherical harmonic coefficients out to degree 50 for the gravity field parameters. These models include adjustment for a subset of 66 ocean tidal coefficients for the long wavelength components of 12 major ocean tides. This tidal adjustment was made in the presence of 550 other fixed ocean tidal terms representing 32 major and minor ocean tides and the Wahr frequency dependent solid earth tidal model. In addition 5-day averaged values for Earth rotation and polar motion were derived for the time period of 1980 onward. Two types of models were computed. These are satellite only models relying exclusively on tracking data and combination models which have incorporated satellite altimetry and surface gravity data. The satellite observational data base consists of over 1100 orbital arcs of data on 31 satellites. A large percentage of these observations were provided by third generation laser stations (less than 5 cm). A calibration of the model accuracy of the GEM-T2 satellite only solution indicated that it was a significant improvement over previous models based solely upon tracking data. The rms geoid error for this field is 110 cm to degree and order 36. This is a major advancement over GEM-T1 whose errors were estimated to be 160 cm. An error propagation using the covariances of the GEM-T2 model for the TOPEX radial orbit component indicates that the rms radial errors are expected to be 12 cm. The combination solution, PGS-3337, is a preliminary effort leading to the development of GEM-T3. PGS-3337 has incorporated global sets of surface gravity data and the Seasat altimetry to produce a model complete to (50,50). A solution for the dynamic ocean topography to degree and order 10 was included as part of this adjustment.

Marsh, J. G.↗

A Global End-Member Approach to Derive aCDOM(440) from Near-Surface Optical Measurements

This study establishes an optical inversion scheme for deriving the absorption coefficient of colored (or chromophoric, depending on the literature) dissolved organic material (CDOM) at the 440 nm wavelength, which can be applied to global water masses with near-equal efficacy. The approach uses a ratio of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectral end members, i.e., a short and long wavelength pair. The global perspective is established by sampling "extremely" clear water plus a generalized extent in turbidity and optical properties that each span three decades of dynamic range. A unique data set was collected in oceanic, coastal, and inland waters (as shallow as 0.6 m) from the North Pacific Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, Hawaii, Japan, Puerto Rico, and the east and west coasts of the United States. The data were partitioned using subjective categorizations to define a validation quality subset of conservative water masses, i.e., the inflow and outflow of properties constrain the range in the gradient of a constituent, plus 15 subcategories of water masses that were not evolving conservatively. The dependence on subcategories was confirmed with an objective methodology based on cluster analysis techniques. The latter defined five distinct classes with validation quality data present in all classes, but which also decreased in percent composition as a function of increasing class number and optical complexity. Four different algorithms based on different validation quality end members were validated with accuracies of 1.–6.2 %, wherein pairs with the largest spectral span were most accurate. Although algorithm accuracy decreased with the inclusion of more subcategories containing non-conservative water masses, changes to the algorithm fit were small when a preponderance of subcategories were included. The high accuracy for all end-member algorithms was the result of data acquisition and data processing improvements, e.g., increased vertical sampling resolution to less than 1mm and a boundary constraint to mitigate wave focusing effects, respectively. An independent evaluation with a historical database confirmed the consistency of the algorithmic approach and its application to quality assurance, e.g., to flag data outside expected ranges, identify suspect spectra, and objectively determine the in-water extrapolation interval by converging agreement for all applicable end-member algorithms. The legacy data exhibit degraded performance (as 44 % uncertainty) due to a lack of high-quality near-surface observations, especially for clear waters wherein wave-focusing effects are problematic. The novel optical approach allows the in situ estimation of an in-water constituent in keeping with the accuracy obtained in the laboratory.

Stanford B Hooker↗

Assessing the Effect of Spaceflight on the Propensity for Astronauts to Develop Disk Herniation

BACKGROUND: A previous study [1] reported that the instantaneous risk of developing a Herniated Nucleus Pulposus (HNP) was higher in astronauts who had flown at least one mission, as compared with those in the corps who had not yet flown. However, the study only analyzed time to HNP after the first mission (if any) and did not account for the possible effects of multiple missions. While many HNP's occurred well into astronauts' careers or in some cases years after retirement, the higher incidence of HNPs relatively soon after completion of space missions appears to indicate that spaceflight may lead to an increased risk of HNP. The purpose of this study was to support the Human System Risk Board assessment of back pain, evaluate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, and update the previous dataset which contained events up to December 31, 2006. METHODS: Data was queried from the electronic medical record and provided by the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health. The data included all 330 United States astronauts from 1959 through February 2014. Cases were confirmed by Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computerized Tomography, Myelography, operative findings, or through clinical confirmation with a neurologist or neurosurgeon. In this analysis, astronauts who had an HNP at selection into the corps or had an HNP diagnosis prior to their first flight were excluded. The statistical challenges in using the available data to separate effects of spaceflight from those associated with general astronaut training and lifestyle on propensity to develop HNPs are many. The primary outcome is reported date of first HNP (if any), which at best is only an approximation to the actual time of occurrence. To properly analyze this data with a survival analysis model, one must also know the "exposure" time - i.e. how long each astronaut has been at risk for developing an HNP. If an HNP is reported soon after a mission, is it mission caused or general? If the former, exposure time should be counted from the time of landing (assuming the risk of HNP occurring during a mission is zero). If the latter, exposure time should be counted from the time of selection; however we can't directly know which one to use. In our analysis we take both of these possibilities into account with a competing risks model, wherein two distinct stochastic processes are going on: TG = time to HNP (general) and TS = time to HNP (spaceflight). Under this type of model, whichever of these occurs first is what we observe; in other words we don't observe TG or TS, only min(TG, TS). Here, we parameterized the model in terms of separate Weibull hazard functions for each process and estimated all parameters using maximum likelihood. In addition, we allowed for a "cured fraction" - i.e. the possibility that some astronauts may never develop an HNP. RESULTS: Results will include a depiction of the competing hazard functions as well as a probability curve for the relative likelihood that an HNP reported at a given time after a mission is actually mission caused. Other factors, such as dwell time in microgravity and vehicle landing environment will be explored. An overall assessment as to whether spaceflight truly exacerbates HNP risk will be made.

Feiveson, A. H.↗

Ground-Support Algorithms for Simulation, Processing, and Calibration of Barnes Static Earth Sensor Measurements: Applications to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Observatory

New algorithms are described covering the simulation, processing, and calibration of penetration angles of the Barnes static Earth sensor assembly (SESA) as implemented in the Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Dynamics Division ground support system for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Observatory. The new treatment involves a detailed analysis of the measurements by individual quadrants. It is shown that, to a good approximation, individual quadrant misalignments can be treated simply as penetration angle biases. Simple formulas suitable for real-time applications are introduced for computing quadrant-dependent effects. The simulator generates penetration angles by solving a quadratic equation with coefficients uniquely determined by the spacecraft's position and the quadrant's orientation in GeoCentric Inertial (GCI) coordinates. Measurement processing for attitude determination is based on linearized equations obtained by expanding the coefficients of the aforementioned quadratic equation as a Taylor series in both the Earth oblateness coefficient (alpha approx. 1/150) and the angle between the pointing axis and the geodetic nadir vector. A simple formula relating a measured value of the penetration angle to the deviation of the Earth-pointed axis from the geodetic nadir vector is derived. It is shown that even near the very edge of the quadrant's Field Of View (FOV), attitude errors resulting from quadratic effects are a few hundredths of a degree, which is small compared to the attitude determination accuracy requirement (0.18 degree, 3 sigma) of TRMM. Calibration of SESA measurements is complicated by a first-order filtering used in the TRMM onboard algorithm to compute penetration angles from raw voltages. A simple calibration scheme is introduced where these complications are avoided by treating penetration angles as the primary raw measurements, which are adjusted using biases and scale factors. In addition to three misalignment parameters, the calibration state vector contains only two average penetration angle biases (one per each pair of opposite quadrants) since, because of the very narrow sensor FOV (+/- 2.6 degrees), differences between biases of the penetration angles measured by opposite quadrants cannot be distinguished from roll and pitch sensor misalignments. After calibration, the estimated misalignments and average penetration angle biases are converted to the four penetration angle biases and to the yaw misalignment angle. The resultant biases and the estimated scale factors are finally used to update the coefficients necessary for onboard computations of penetration angles from measured voltages.

Natanson, G. A.↗

Watershed-Scale Modeling of Land-Use and Altered Environment Impacts on Aquatic Weed Growth in the Delta

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, and water quality have all been suspected as playing role in the dramatic expansion of invasive aquatic plants and their impact on ecosystems of the San Francisco Bay / California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center, USDA-Agricultural Research Service, the State of California, UC Davis, and local governments have partnered under a USDA sponsored project (DRAAWP) to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plants in Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Critical to developing management strategies is to understand how the Delta is affected by both the magnitude of fluctuations in land-use and climate / drought induced altered environments and how the plants respond to these altered environments. We utilize the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed-scale model developed to quantify the impact of land management practices in large and complex watersheds on water quality, as the backbone for a customized Delta model - Delta-SWAT. The model uses land-use, soils, elevation, and hydrologic routing to characterize pesticide and nutrient transport from the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers watersheds and loading into the Delta. Land-use within the Delta, as well as water extraction to supply those functions, and the resulting return of water to Delta waterways are included in Delta-SWAT. Hydrologic transport within the Delta has required significant attention to address the lack of elevation driven transport processes. Delta-SWAT water quality trend estimates are compared with water quality monitoring conducted throughout the Delta. Aquatic plant response to water quality and other environmental factors is carried out using a customized model component. Plant response to the range of water quality factors, response times, and altered temperature and light regimes of the Delta have required gap-filling studies to provide model parameters. Delta-SWAT provides a tool for evaluating temporal and spatial effects of land-use and altered environments in the Delta and contributing watersheds on aquatic weed growth. Using Delta-SWAT for simulation modeling allows evaluation of historic and current conditions as well as consideration potential climate change and management practice outcomes. Delta-SWAT adds to the scientific understanding of dynamics in the Delta and enhances development of science-informed, management strategies and practices.

Ecosystem↗

Neutron Stars and Black Holes Seen with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE)

Astrophysical X-rays bring information about location, energy, time, and polarization. X-rays from compact objects were seen in the first explorations to vary in time. Eclipses and pulsations have simple explanations that identified the importance of X-ray binaries and magnetic neutron stars in the first decade of X-ray astronomy. The dynamics of accretion onto stellar and supermassive black holes and onto neutron stars with relatively low magnetic fields shows up as more complex variations, quasi-periodic oscillations, noise with characteristic frequency spectra, broad-band changes in the energy spectra. To study these variations, RXTE instruments needed to have large area and operational flexibility to find transient activity and observe when it was present. Proportional counters and Phoswich scintillators provided it in a modest mission that has made textbook level contributions to understanding of compact objects. The first seen, and the brightest known, X-ray binary, Sco X-1 is one of a class of neutron stars with low mass companions. Before RXTE, none of these had been seen to show pulsations, though they were hypothesized to be the precursors of radio pulsars with millisecond periods and low magnetic fields. RXTE's large area led to identifying coherent millisecond pulsars in a subset which are relatively faint transients. It also led to identifying short episodes of pulsation during thermonuclear bursts, in sources where a steady signal is not seen. The X-ray stage verifies the evolution that produces millisecond radio pulsars.Masses and radii of neutron stars are being determined by various techniques, constraining the equation of state of matter at nuclear densities. Accretion should lead to a range of neutron star masses. An early stage of superstrong magnetic field neutron stars is now known to produce X-ray and gamma-ray bursts in crust quakes and magnetic field reconnection releases of energy. Soft Gamma Repeaters, Anomolous X-ray Pulsars, and high magnetic field rotation-powered pulsars are all now called magnetars, because they have pulse periods indicating they are slowing down as they would with magnetic dipole radiation for a surface field above 5x1013 gauss. The accretion disk has been connected to the launching of radio jets from black holes, and even from neutron stars. Estimates of the angular momenta of black holes are being made from different approaches, modelling a high frequency oscillation that may be related to how close the inner part of the accretion disk is to the black hole, modelling the continua spectra of the X-ray emission, and modeling the emission of red-shifted iron that may be emitted from the accretion disk. These investigations require early discovery of the black hole transient with the All Sky Monitor on RXTE or other monitoring information, frequent extended observations, and coordinated observations with missions that give higher energy resolution, or radio and infrared information.

Swank, Jean↗

Chlorophyll Fluorescence Emissions of Vegetation Canopies From High Resolution Field Reflectance Spectra

A two-year experiment was performed on corn (Zea mays L.) crops under nitrogen (N) fertilization regimes to examine the use of hyperspectral canopy reflectance information for estimating chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) and vegetation production. Fluorescence of foliage in the laboratory has proven more rigorous than reflectance for correlation to plant physiology. Especially useful are emissions produced from two stable red and far-red chlorophyll ChlF peaks centered at 685V10 nm and 735V5 nm. Methods have been developed elsewhere to extract steady state solar induced fluorescence (SF) from apparent reflectance of vegetation canopies/landscapes using the Fraunhofer Line Depth (FLD) principal. Our study utilized these methods in conjunction with field-acquired high spectral resolution canopy reflectance spectra obtained in 2004 and 2005 over corn crops, as part of an ongoing multi-year experiment at the USDA/Agriculture Research Service in Beltsville, MD. A spectroradiometer (ASD-FR Fieldspec Pro, Analytical Spectral Devices, Inc., Boulder, CO) was used to measure canopy radiances 1 m above plant canopies with a 22deg field of view and a 0deg nadir view zenith angle. Canopy and plant measurements were made at the R3 grain fill reproductive stage on 3-4 replicate N application plots provided seasonal inputs of 280, 140, 70, and 28 kg N/ha. Leaf level measurements were also made which included ChlF, photosynthesis, and leaf constituents (photosynthetic pigment, carbon (C), and N contents). Crop yields were determined at harvest. SIF intensities for ChlF were derived directly from canopy reflectance spectra in specific narrowband regions associated with atmospheric oxygen absorption features centered at 688 and 760 nm. The red/far-red S F ratio derived from these field reflectance spectra successfully discriminated foliar pigment levels (e.g., total chlorophyll, Chl) associated with N application rates in both corn crops. This canopy-level spectral ratio was also positively correlated to the foliar C/N ratio (r = 0.89, n = go), as was a leaf-level steady state fluorescence ratio (Fs/Chl, r = 0.92). The latter ratio was inversely correlated with crop grain yield (Kg 1 ha) (r = 0.9). This study has relevance to future passive satellite remote sensing approaches to monitoring C dynamics from space.

Middleton, E. M.↗

Satellite Altimetry, Ocean Circulation, and Data Assimilation

Ocean circulation is a critical factor in determining the Earth's climate. Satellite altimetry has been proven a powerful technique for measuring the height of the sea surface for the study of global ocean circulation dynamics. A major objective of my research is to investigate the utility of altimeter data for ocean circulation studies. The 6 years' data record of TOPEX/POSEIDON have been analyzed to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of large-scale ocean variability. A major result obtained in 1998 is the discovery of large-scale oscillations in sea level with a period of 25 days in the Argentine Basin of the South Atlantic Ocean (see diagram). They exhibit a dipole pattern with counterclockwise rotational propagation around the Zapiola Rise (centered at 45S and 317E), a small seamount in the abyssal plain of the basin. The peak-to-trough amplitude is about 10 cm over a distance of 500-1000 km. The amplitude of these oscillations has large seasonal-to-interannual variations. The period and rotational characteristics of these oscillations are remarkably similar to the observations made by two current meters deployed near the ocean bottom in the region. What TOPEX/POSEIDON has detected apparently are manifestations of the movement of the entire water column (barotropic motion). The resultant transport variation is estimated to be about 50 x 10(exp 6) cubic M/S, which is about 50% of the total water transport in the region. Preliminary calculations suggest that these oscillations are topographically trapped waves. A numerical model of the South Atlantic is used to investigate the nature of and causes for these waves. A very important property of sea surface height is that it is directly related to the surface geostrophic velocity, which is related to deep ocean circulation through the density field. Therefore altimetry observations are not only useful for determining the surface circulation but also for revealing information about the deep ocean. Another objective of my research is to investigate the extent of information one can infer about the deep ocean from altimetric observations. The approach is data assimilation by ocean models. The objective is to develop a modeling/data assimilation system that will produce estimates of the 3-dimensional state of the ocean for the entire duration of the TOPEX/POSEIDON Mission.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

Remote Sensing of Tropical Ecosystems: Atmospheric Correction and Cloud Masking Matter

Tropical rainforests are significant contributors to the global cycles of energy, water and carbon. As a result, monitoring of the vegetation status over regions such as Amazonia has been a long standing interest of Earth scientists trying to determine the effect of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the tropical ecosystems and its feedback on the Earth's climate. Satellite-based remote sensing is the only practical approach for observing the vegetation dynamics of regions like the Amazon over useful spatial and temporal scales, but recent years have seen much controversy over satellite-derived vegetation states in Amazônia, with studies predicting opposite feedbacks depending on data processing technique and interpretation. Recent results suggest that some of this uncertainty could stem from a lack of quality in atmospheric correction and cloud screening. In this paper, we assess these uncertainties by comparing the current standard surface reflectance products (MYD09, MYD09GA) and derived composites (MYD09A1, MCD43A4 and MYD13A2 - Vegetation Index) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite to results obtained from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm. MAIAC uses a new cloud screening technique, and novel aerosol retrieval and atmospheric correction procedures which are based on time-series and spatial analyses. Our results show considerable improvements of MAIAC processed surface reflectance compared to MYD09/MYD13 with noise levels reduced by a factor of up to 10. Uncertainties in the current MODIS surface reflectance product were mainly due to residual cloud and aerosol contamination which affected the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): During the wet season, with cloud cover ranging between 90 percent and 99 percent, conventionally processed NDVI was significantly depressed due to undetected clouds. A smaller reduction in NDVI due to increased aerosol levels was observed during the dry season, with an inverse dependence of NDVI on aerosol optical thickness (AOT). NDVI observations processed with MAIAC showed highly reproducible and stable inter-annual patterns with little or no dependence on cloud cover, and no significant dependence on AOT (p less than 0.05). In addition to a better detection of cloudy pixels, MAIAC obtained about 20-80 percent more cloud free pixels, depending on season, a considerable amount for land analysis given the very high cloud cover (75-99 percent) observed at any given time in the area. We conclude that a new generation of atmospheric correction algorithms, such as MAIAC, can help to dramatically improve vegetation estimates over tropical rain forest, ultimately leading to reduced uncertainties in satellite-derived vegetation products globally.

tropical ecosystems↗

Future Plans in US Flight Missions: Using Laser Remote Sensing for Climate Science Observations

Laser Remote Sensing provides critical climate science observations necessary to better measure, understand, model and predict the Earth's water, carbon and energy cycles. Laser Remote Sensing applications for studying the Earth and other planets include three dimensional mapping of surface topography, canopy height and density, atmospheric measurement of aerosols and trace gases, plume and cloud profiles, and winds measurements. Beyond the science, data from these missions will produce new data products and applications for a multitude of end users including policy makers and urban planners on local, national and global levels. NASA Missions in formulation including Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat 2) and the Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI), and future missions such as the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS), will incorporate the next generation of LIght Detection And Ranging (lidar) instruments to measure changes in the surface elevation of the ice, quantify ecosystem carbon storage due to biomass and its change, and provide critical data on CO 2 in the atmosphere. Goddard's plans for these instruments and potential uses for the resulting data are described below. For the ICESat 2 mission, GSFC is developing a micro-pulse multi-beam lidar. This instrument will provide improved ice elevation estimates over high slope and very rough areas and result in improved lead detection for sea ice estimates. Data about the sea ice and predictions related to sea levels will continue to help inform urban planners as the changes in the polar ice accelerate. DESDynI is planned to be launched in 2017 and includes both lidar and radar instruments. GSFC is responsible for the lidar portion of the DESDynI mission and is developing a scanning laser altimeter that will measure the Earth's topography, the structure of tree canopies, biomass, and surface roughness. The DESDynI lidar will also measure and predict the response of ice masses to climate change and impact on sea level. Data from the lidar will ultimately be fused with radar data products with heretofore unseen results and applications. The 3-D structure of forests is critical to understanding the impact of land use and associated landscape changes on the habitat of life forms and consequently on their biodiversity. Lidar instruments are also under development to measure trace gases in the atmospheric such as CO2 and methane. GSFC is developing an active measurement approach to determine the CO2 column density and surface pressure for the proposed ASCENDS mission. The objective of this approach is to produce data on the amounts of anthropogenic and organic CO2 in the atmosphere with sufficient accuracy to meet the needs of target users including state, federal and international users as well as policy-related legislative, regulatory, and voluntary carbon-related management groups local to international interests. In summary, NASA will continue to rely on laser remote sensing for critical climate science observations and is committed to the development of the next generation of lidar instruments for a range of applications.

Callahan, Lisa W.↗

Optical Navigation for Autonomous Approach of Small Unknown Bodies

State of the practice in navigation around small celestial bodies heavily relies on ground sup- port and human skill, in particular, for perception-based operations such as optical navigation and mapping. This leads to longer duration and more complex mission operations and sub- sequently higher cost. Furthermore, it imposes limitations for certain missions such as fast fly-bys or multi-agent operations. In this work, we present an autonomous navigation strat- egy suitable for approaching small unexplored bodies. During the approach, we estimate the body’s physical properties as well as the spacecraft’s relative trajectory and associated un- certainties. The autonomous navigation strategy, which is solely based on optical measure- ments, begins as soon as the body becomes resolved in the navigation camera and terminates at the start of proximity operations, when the spacecraft makes its first trajectory correction to stay in the vicinity of the body. Our strategy uses multiple image-processing algorithms: light-curve analysis for estimating the target body’s rotation rate, Shape-from-Silhouette for reconstructing the 3D shape and estimating its rotation pole, and feature tracking tailored to Small-Body images for estimating relative navigation parameters. We used the Mission Analysis, Operations, and Navigation Toolkit Environment (MONTE) developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to evaluate the feasibility of this multi-phase navigation strategy using simulated images of an approach trajectory. We used the Rosetta mission data to generate photorealistic images to characterise the performance of this approach. This work is based on the assumptions that the spacecraft attitude is known, the body is a principal-axis rotator, a-priori estimates of ephemerides and scale are available, and the body is observed from a zero sun phase only during initial approach. Preliminary results show orbit determination performance that is on par with the human navigation from the Rosetta mission; albeit with a 1% bias in spacecraft-target radial distance estimate. The bias error is likely due to the robustness and accuracy of the visual tracking under dynamic lighting conditions and per- spective changes, which decrease accuracy.

Villa, Jacopo↗

Software Testbed for Developing and Evaluating Integrated Autonomous Subsystems

To implement fault tolerant autonomy in future space systems, it will be necessary to integrate planning, adaptive control, and state estimation subsystems. However, integrating these subsystems is difficult, time-consuming, and error-prone. This paper describes Intelliface/ADAPT, a software testbed that helps researchers develop and test alternative strategies for integrating planning, execution, and diagnosis subsystems more quickly and easily. The testbed's architecture, graphical data displays, and implementations of the integrated subsystems support easy plug and play of alternate components to support research and development in fault-tolerant control of autonomous vehicles and operations support systems. Intelliface/ADAPT controls NASA's Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT), which comprises batteries, electrical loads (fans, pumps, and lights), relays, circuit breakers, invertors, and sensors. During plan execution, an experimentor can inject faults into the ADAPT testbed by tripping circuit breakers, changing fan speed settings, and closing valves to restrict fluid flow. The diagnostic subsystem, based on NASA's Hybrid Diagnosis Engine (HyDE), detects and isolates these faults to determine the new state of the plant, ADAPT. Intelliface/ADAPT then updates its model of the ADAPT system's resources and determines whether the current plan can be executed using the reduced resources. If not, the planning subsystem generates a new plan that reschedules tasks, reconfigures ADAPT, and reassigns the use of ADAPT resources as needed to work around the fault. The resource model, planning domain model, and planning goals are expressed using NASA's Action Notation Modeling Language (ANML). Parts of the ANML model are generated automatically, and other parts are constructed by hand using the Planning Model Integrated Development Environment, a visual Eclipse-based IDE that accelerates ANML model development. Because native ANML planners are currently under development and not yet sufficiently capable, the ANML model is translated into the New Domain Definition Language (NDDL) and sent to NASA's EUROPA planning system for plan generation. The adaptive controller executes the new plan, using augmented, hierarchical finite state machines to select and sequence actions based on the state of the ADAPT system. Real-time sensor data, commands, and plans are displayed in information-dense arrays of timelines and graphs that zoom and scroll in unison. A dynamic schematic display uses color to show the real-time fault state and utilization of the system components and resources. An execution manager coordinates the activities of the other subsystems. The subsystems are integrated using the Internet Communications Engine (ICE). an object-oriented toolkit for building distributed applications.

Testbed↗

Three CA-Related Covariance Issues and Their Solutions

This presentation addresses three issues that arise in the use of DoD-produced satellite state estimate covariances in the conjunction assessment process: the realism of the provided covariances, how to address correlated error between two satellites' covariance matrices, and how to proceed when a furnished covariance is non-positive-definite. To address the first, DoD has implemented a set of two "consider parameters" with which to alter/expand the covariance to account for atmospheric density forecast error and satellite frontal area uncertainty, the two largest sources of unmodeled position prediction error for LEO orbits; these values are governed by a satellite's orbital parameters and ballistic coefficient histories, as well as the current and predicted space weather situation. This approach substantially improves the realism of the covariance by accounting for expected prediction errors that are not part of the fit process that generates the covariance. The second issue of covariance correlation is a complicated one, but the main shared error source—global atmospheric density error that is common to both satellites can be characterized and, through sensitivity vectors, quantified at the conjunction's time of closest approach and removed from the joint covariance, which is used in the CA probability of collision (Pc) calculation. Finally, while according to the orbit determination theory a non-positive-definite (NPD) covariance is not possible, numerical truncation and covariance interpolation can conspire to produce NPD results, which render the covariance unusable for certain CA risk assessment calculations, such as Monte Carlo Pc determination. Three similar techniques are profiled and the simplest of them recommended as a reasonable remediation technique when NPD covariances are encountered by CA practitioners.

Dynamic Consider Parameter↗

Enabling a Larger Deep Space Mission Suite: A Deep Space Network Queuing Antenna for Demand Access

The advent of deep space small spacecraft, as exemplified by the Mars Cubesat One (MarCO), Lunar Trailblazer, Janus, the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (EscaPADE), and the thirteen Artemis 1 missions, opens the possibility that a much larger number of deep space spacecraft may be launched over the next 10 years and beyond. While scientifically exciting, the prospect of a (much) larger mission suite raises significant challenges for the current approach to ground stations and mission operations. We have been investigating an integrated approach for ground stations and missions operations to enable new modes of operation while maintaining the capabilities of the current operational techniques. This integrated approach is built around three core capabilities: (1) A queuing antenna that enables monitoring the status of a much larger number of spacecraft, and allows spacecraft to transmit requests for telemetry with NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN); (2) a flexible scheduling system that expands the current DSN scheduling services to enable allocating time on DSN antennas in near real-time; and (3) a cloud-based ground data system that can be spun up and down according to how tracks are assigned by the flexible scheduling system. We shall show that an 18 meter DSN queuing antenna equipped with cyrogenic receivers would enable use of the DSN Demand Access Service for small spacecraft throughout the inner Solar System, thus providing service to a large mission suite. We first discuss the architecture of the queuing antenna and its supporting systems, including, for instance, the service required to generate the schedule for the queueing antenna (which dictates how it slews to monitor multiple spacecraft in a day of operations). Next, we describe the signaling scheme used to encode a request, which is inherited from the already operational DSN Beacon Tone Service, and describe two alternative ways to detect the incoming tone at the ground station, one based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and another one based on Fast-Fourier Transfer (FFT) processing. We then use these results to estimate the maximum range at which a request can be reliably detected as a function of the spacecraft and ground station communication capabilities. Finally, the last part of this part of this paper briefly describes the prototyping effort undertaken at Morehead State University (MSU) and JPL to demonstrate the viability of this new DSN demand access. In particular, we describe the suite of tests conducted using MSU’s 21 meter ground station to validate its use a queuing antenna.

Mattle, Emily↗

Canopy Level Solar Induced Fluorescence for Vegetation in Controlled Experiments

Solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) was retrieved from high resolution reflectance spectra acquired one meter above saplings of three deciduous tree species during springtime (three weeks after leaf flush) and in late summer when foliage was mature. SIF was determined by application of the Fraunhofer Line Depth (FLD) Principal to above-canopy spectra acquired with an Analytical Spectral Devices (ASD) Fieldspec spectroradiometer (3.2 nm resolution with 1.2 nm sampling interval). SIF retrievals were made at the two atmospheric oxygen (O2) absorption features that occur in the chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) region (660 -780 nm). These telluric features are 02V, the broader and deeper feature centered at 760 nm, but located on the shoulder of the far-red ChlF peak at 740 nm; and 023, a narrow feature centered at 688 nm that is positioned near the red ChlF peak at 685 nm. Supporting, coincident leaf level fluorescence, reflectance, photochemical and other measurements were also made. At the leaf level, these measurements included in situ photosynthetic capacity (Pmax) and light adapted total chlorophyll fluorescence (Fs') collected at steady state under high light and controlled chamber conditions (e.g., temperature, PAR, humidity, and COz); optical properties (reflectance, transmittance, absorptance); chlorophyll and carotenoid content; specific leaf mass; carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content; fluorescence emission spectra at multiple excitation wavelengths; the ChlF contribution to red (R) and far-red (FR) reflectance; fluorescence imagery; and fluorescence excitation-emission matrices (EEMs). The tree species examined were tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), and sweetgum (Liquidambar styraczflua L.), and each had been provided four levels of N augmentation (0, 19, 37, and 75 kg Nhectare seasonally) to simulate atmospheric deposition from air pollution. Whole-plant SIF measurements of these species were compared with SIF estimates derived using FluorMOD, a radiative transfer model that includes fluorescence properties of foliage, when provided with our supporting measurements. Simulated values for SIF were also compared with similar estimates made over three years for corn (Zea mays L) crops under N treatments (20, 50,70, and 140 kg Nhectare) and with corn and pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) plants provided dimethyl urea (DCMU, 0 and 5 x 10" M) which were grown in pots and grouped in artificial canopies for spectral measurements. For near-surface measurements of healthy and stressed vegetation, red SIF retrieved at 688 nm (023) varied between 2-7 mW/m(exp 2)/nm/sr while far-red SIF retrieved at 760 nm (O2A) varied between 0.5 and 4.0 mW/m(exp 2)/nm/sr. Typical values for the SIF red/far-red ratio ranged between 1.75 and 4.0. Relationships of SIF to spectral reflectance indices and foliar photochemical indices were examined, such as photosynthetic light use efficiency. Initial investigations of the variability in these measurements at the same leaf temperature for sunlit and shaded foliage showed us that shaded foliage produced higher ChlF and light use efficiency. Other factors that affect SIF determinations are discussed. These results will assist in determine the expected intensity of the SIF signal from vegetation near the surface, as well as to identify enhancements needed for FluorMOD (or other such models), and will assist in determining relationships of SIF to reflectance indices and carbon dynamics.

Middleton, E. M.↗

Probabilistic Multi-Scale, Multi-Level, Multi-Disciplinary Analysis and Optimization of Engine Structures

Aircraft engines are assemblies of dynamically interacting components. Engine updates to keep present aircraft flying safely and engines for new aircraft are progressively required to operate in more demanding technological and environmental requirements. Designs to effectively meet those requirements are necessarily collections of multi-scale, multi-level, multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization methods and probabilistic methods are necessary to quantify respective uncertainties. These types of methods are the only ones that can formally evaluate advanced composite designs which satisfy those progressively demanding requirements while assuring minimum cost, maximum reliability and maximum durability. Recent research activities at NASA Glenn Research Center have focused on developing multi-scale, multi-level, multidisciplinary analysis and optimization methods. Multi-scale refers to formal methods which describe complex material behavior metal or composite; multi-level refers to integration of participating disciplines to describe a structural response at the scale of interest; multidisciplinary refers to open-ended for various existing and yet to be developed discipline constructs required to formally predict/describe a structural response in engine operating environments. For example, these include but are not limited to: multi-factor models for material behavior, multi-scale composite mechanics, general purpose structural analysis, progressive structural fracture for evaluating durability and integrity, noise and acoustic fatigue, emission requirements, hot fluid mechanics, heat-transfer and probabilistic simulations. Many of these, as well as others, are encompassed in an integrated computer code identified as Engine Structures Technology Benefits Estimator (EST/BEST) or Multi-faceted/Engine Structures Optimization (MP/ESTOP). The discipline modules integrated in MP/ESTOP include: engine cycle (thermodynamics), engine weights, internal fluid mechanics, cost, mission and coupled structural/thermal, various composite property simulators and probabilistic methods to evaluate uncertainty effects (scatter ranges) in all the design parameters. The objective of the proposed paper is to briefly describe a multi-faceted design analysis and optimization capability for coupled multi-discipline engine structures optimization. Results are presented for engine and aircraft type metrics to illustrate the versatility of that capability. Results are also presented for reliability, noise and fatigue to illustrate its inclusiveness. For example, replacing metal rotors with composites reduces the engine weight by 20 percent, 15 percent noise reduction, and an order of magnitude improvement in reliability. Composite designs exist to increase fatigue life by at least two orders of magnitude compared to state-of-the-art metals.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Application of Fault Management Theory to the Quantitative Selection of a Launch Vehicle Abort Trigger Suite

The theory of System Health Management (SHM) and of its operational subset Fault Management (FM) states that FM is implemented as a "meta" control loop, known as an FM Control Loop (FMCL). The FMCL detects that all or part of a system is now failed, or in the future will fail (that is, cannot be controlled within acceptable limits to achieve its objectives), and takes a control action (a response) to return the system to a controllable state. In terms of control theory, the effectiveness of each FMCL is estimated based on its ability to correctly estimate the system state, and on the speed of its response to the current or impending failure effects. This paper describes how this theory has been successfully applied on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of proposed abort triggers so as to select the most effective suite to protect the astronauts from catastrophic failure of the SLS. The premise behind this process is to be able to quantitatively provide the value versus risk trade‐off for any given abort trigger, allowing decision makers to make more informed decisions. All current and planned crewed launch vehicles have some form of vehicle health management system integrated with an emergency launch abort system to ensure crew safety. While the design can vary, the underlying principle is the same: detect imminent catastrophic vehicle failure, initiate launch abort, and extract the crew to safety. Abort triggers are the detection mechanisms that identify that a catastrophic launch vehicle failure is occurring or is imminent and cause the initiation of a notification to the crew vehicle that the escape system must be activated. While ensuring that the abort triggers provide this function, designers must also ensure that the abort triggers do not signal that a catastrophic failure is imminent when in fact the launch vehicle can successfully achieve orbit. That is, the abort triggers must have low false negative rates to be sure that real crew‐threatening failures are detected, and also low false positive rates to ensure that the crew does not abort from non‐crew‐threatening launch vehicle behaviors. The analysis process described in this paper is a compilation of over six years of lessons learned and refinements from experiences developing abort triggers for NASA's Constellation Program (Ares I Project) and the SLS Program, as well as the simultaneous development of SHM/FM theory. The paper will describe the abort analysis concepts and process, developed in conjunction with SLS Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) to define a common set of mission phase, failure scenario, and Loss of Mission Environment (LOME) combinations upon which the SLS Loss of Mission (LOM) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models are built. This abort analysis also requires strong coordination with the Multi‐Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and SLS Structures and Environments (STE) to formulate a series of abortability tables that encapsulate explosion dynamics over the ascent mission phase. The design and assessment of abort conditions and triggers to estimate their Loss of Crew (LOC) Benefits also requires in‐depth integration with other groups, including Avionics, Guidance, Navigation and Control(GN&C), the Crew Office, Mission Operations, and Ground Systems. The outputs of this analysis are a critical input to SLS S&MA's LOC PRA models. The process described here may well be the first full quantitative application of SHM/FM theory to the selection of a sensor suite for any aerospace system.

Lo, Yunnhon↗

Tuning and Robustness Analysis for the Orion Absolute Navigation System

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is currently under development as NASA's next-generation spacecraft for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. The MPCV is set to perform an orbital test flight, termed Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), some time in late 2014. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to show the efforts made to-date in tuning the filter for the EFT-1 mission and instilling appropriate robustness into the system to meet the requirements of manned space ight. Filter performance is affected by many factors: data rates, sensor measurement errors, tuning, and others. This paper focuses mainly on the error characterization and tuning portion. Traditional efforts at tuning a navigation filter have centered around the observation/measurement noise and Gaussian process noise of the Extended Kalman Filter. While the Orion MODE team must certainly address those factors, the team is also looking at residual edit thresholds and measurement underweighting as tuning tools. Tuning analysis is presented with open loop Monte-Carlo simulation results showing statistical errors bounded by the 3-sigma filter uncertainty covariance. The Orion filter design uses 24 Exponentially Correlated Random Variable (ECRV) parameters to estimate the accel/gyro misalignment and nonorthogonality. By design, the time constant and noise terms of these ECRV parameters were set to manufacturer specifications and not used as tuning parameters. They are included in the filter as a more analytically correct method of modeling uncertainties than ad-hoc tuning of the process noise. Tuning is explored for the powered-flight ascent phase, where measurements are scarce and unmodelled vehicle accelerations dominate. On orbit, there are important trade-off cases between process and measurement noise. On entry, there are considerations about trading performance accuracy for robustness. Process Noise is divided into powered flight and coasting ight and can be adjusted for each phase and mode of the Orion EFT-1 mission. Measurement noise is used for the integrated velocity measurements during pad alignment. It is also used for Global Positioning System (GPS) pseudorange and delta- range measurements during the rest of the flight. The robustness effort has been focused on maintaining filter convergence and performance in the presence of unmodeled error sources. These include unmodeled forces on the vehicle and uncorrected errors on the sensor measurements. Orion uses a single-frequency, non-keyed GPS receiver, so the effects due to signal distortion in Earth's ionosphere and troposphere are present in the raw measurements. Results are presented showing the efforts to compensate for these errors as well as characterize the residual effect for measurement noise tuning. Another robustness tool in use is tuning the residual edit thresholds. The trade-off between noise tuning and edit thresholds is explored in the context of robustness to errors in dynamics models and sensor measurements. Measurement underweighting is also presented as a method of additional robustness when processing highly accurate measurements in the presence of large filter uncertainties.

Holt, Greg N.↗