Necrobiome framework for bridging decomposition ecology of autotrophically and heterotrophically derived organic matter
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Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
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Enhanced prediction of terrestrial feedbacks to the coastal carbon cycle:using machine learning to improve sub-grid biogeochemical processes
Focal Areas: The paper aims to improve predictability of the coastal carbon cycle through improved model representation and quantification of the terrestrial feedbacks to aquatic ecosystems. The paper covers two focus areas, 1. Improved predictive modeling of terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemistry through ML-enabled surrogate models, and 2. Employing machine learning to integrate multimodal data sets collected across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems at high spatial and temporal resolution.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5
The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to
SMAP↗
The Joint Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Surface Soil Moisture into a Land Surface Model
This work tests the hypothesis that jointly assimilating satellite observations of leaf area index and surface soil moisture into a land surface model improves the estimation of land vegetation and water variables. An Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to test such hypothesis across the Contiguous United States during April 2015 – December 2018. The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed for several modeled vegetation and water variables (evapotranspiration, net ecosystem exchange, and soil moisture) in terms of random errors and anomaly correlation coefficients against a set of independent validation datasets (i.e., Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model, FLUXCOM, and International Soil Moisture Network). Results show that the assimilation of leaf area index mostly improves the estimation of evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange, whereas the assimilation of surface soil moisture alone improves surface soil moisture content, especially in the western US, in terms of both root mean squared error and anomaly correlation coefficient. The joint assimilation of vegetation and soil moisture information combines the results of individual vegetation and soil moisture assimilations and reduces errors (and increases correlations with the reference datasets) in evapotranspiration, net ecosystem exchange, and surface soil moisture simulated by the land surface model. However, because soil moisture satellite observations only provide information on the water content in the top 5 cm of the soil column, the impact of the proposed data assimilation technique on root zone soil moisture is limited. This work moves one step forward in the direction of improving our estimation and understanding of land surface interactions using a multi-variate data assimilation approach, which can be particularly useful in regions of the world where ground observations are sparse or missing altogether.
Data assimilation↗
Root lateral interactions drive water uptake patterns under water limitation
The plasticity of root water uptake determines the maintenance of transpiration during periods of water limitation and drought. However, the mechanistic basis of plant water uptake, as well as the implications of water uptake strategies at the individual and ecosystem scale remain elusive. We model three-dimensional root water uptake under variably saturated conditions for a one-hectare temperate forest plot for a growing season with a pronounced mid-season dry period. Variations in root architecture, hydraulic properties, and degree of lateral interaction between root systems produce divergent local responses to water limitation and provide insights on individual and community response to meteorological conditions. Results demonstrate the plasticity of ecosystem-scale responses to surface drying, where interacting roots shift regions of active uptake to deeper soil layers with less abundant root biomass. These shifts, a product of both root system and soil hydraulic properties, illustrate intimate links between root and soil hydraulics in determining plant water sourcing. Furthermore, we demonstrate that root lateral interactions are beneficial at the ecosystem-scale, even when trees compete for water. Specifically, a more spatially extensive root system facilitates access to a larger soil water reservoir, often ameliorating water limitation and reducing sharp water potential gradients. While the reduction of water stress is a benefit, it can be offset by increased root construction and maintenance costs associated with the larger rooting system. A plausible “viability” region of root communal co-existence is therefore implied where competitive pressures and root production costs are balanced by a potential water benefit.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Arctic-Boreal vulnerability experiment model benchmarking system
Abstract NASA’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) integrates field and airborne data into modeling and synthesis activities for understanding Arctic and Boreal ecosystem dynamics. The ABoVE Benchmarking System (ABS) is an operational software package to evaluate terrestrial biosphere models against key indicators of Arctic and Boreal ecosystem dynamics, i.e.: carbon biogeochemistry, vegetation, permafrost, hydrology, and disturbance. The ABS utilizes satellite remote sensing data, airborne data, and field data from ABoVE as well as collaborating research networks in the region, e.g.: the Permafrost Carbon Network, the International Soil Carbon Network, the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database, AmeriFlux sites, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2, and the Soil Moisture Active Passive mission. The ABS is designed to be interactive for researchers interested in having their models accurately represent observations of key Arctic indicators: a user submits model results to the system, the system evaluates the model results against a set of Arctic-Boreal benchmarks outlined in the ABoVE Concise Experiment Plan, and the user then receives a quantitative scoring of model strengths and deficiencies through a web interface. This interactivity allows model developers to iteratively improve their model for the Arctic-Boreal Region by evaluating results from successive model versions. We show here, for illustration, the improvement of the Lund–Potsdam–Jena-Wald Schnee und Landschaft (LPJwsl) version model through the ABoVE ABS as a new permafrost module is coupled to the existing model framework. The ABS will continue to incorporate new benchmarks that address indicators of Arctic-Boreal ecosystem dynamics as they become available.
Stofferahn, Eric (ORCID:0000000169604193)↗
Development of Electro-chemical Battery Model for Plug-and-Play Eco-system Library
Energy storage components are fundamental to the concept of an Integrated Energy System (IES). They serve to store surplus energy during low-demand periods for later release when other IES components (i.e., Secondary Energy Source, Balance of Plant, etc.) would otherwise have to operate flexibly. This provision for storage avoids high-amplitude power ramps in these components thereby limiting thermal and mechanical stresses to their internals and providing for extended service life. This report describes a dynamic model that has been developed for an electrochemical battery. The lithium-ion (Li-ion) cell was selected as representative technology. The battery model was developed in the Dymola simulation environment and meets the requirements of the ecosystem plug-and-play library. The model accurately describes the electric dynamic response of a Li-ion battery for an imposed charging/discharging power profile. The corresponding physical limitations related to over-power scenarios, and the impact of the residual state of charge are accounted for in the model. A literature review of the major degradation processes affecting Li-ion batteries was performed. Given the purposes of the CTD-IES project, the progressive fade of the installed capacity, the reduction of the round-trip efficiency, and the limits on the number of charging/discharging cycles are aspects that need to be taken into account in techno-economic analyses. The modeling of these degradation phenomena becomes crucial when predictions over long time horizons (capacity expansion) are made. For each one of these phenomena, a brief description is given, and some figures to be implemented in the HERON optimization algorithm are presented.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
The three major axes of terrestrial ecosystem function
The leaf economics spectrum and the global spectrum of plant forms and functions revealed fundamental axes of variation in plant traits, which represent different ecological strategies that are shaped by the evolutionary development of plant species. Ecosystem functions depend on environmental conditions and the traits of species that comprise the ecological communities. However, the axes of variation of ecosystem functions are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond as a whole to anthropogenic drivers, climate and environmental variability. Here we derive a set of ecosystem functions from a dataset of surface gas exchange measurements across major terrestrial biomes. We find that most of the variability within ecosystem functions (71.8%) is captured by three key axes. The first axis reflects maximum ecosystem productivity and is mostly explained by vegetation structure. The second axis reflects ecosystem water-use strategies and is jointly explained by variation in vegetation height and climate. The third axis, which represents ecosystem carbon-use efficiency, features a gradient related to aridity, and is explained primarily by variation in vegetation structure. We show that two state-of-the-art land surface models reproduce the first and most important axis of ecosystem functions. However, the models tend to simulate more strongly correlated functions than those observed, which limits their ability to accurately predict the full range of responses to environmental changes in carbon, water and energy cycling in terrestrial ecosystems.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing Climate Vulnerability through the InVEST Model on Urban Cooling in Milwaukee Using NASA Earth Observations
Milwaukee’s neighborhoods experience increased social, health, and ecological stress from the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect due to changing land cover and climate. Extreme urban heat disproportionately affects Black and Latine communities due to systematic disinvestment in infrastructure and lack of resources to cope with heat. Our partner, Groundwork Milwaukee, supports Environmental Justice organizing around urban heat in historically redlined neighborhoods. This study explores heat mitigation in Metcalfe Park, one such neighborhood that is a focus area for our partner, as well as across the city and county of Milwaukee. Our team utilized the Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Model for urban cooling to model heat mitigation scenarios for Milwaukee in support of Groundwork’s climate resilience and heat mitigation work. The data inputs used in our analysis were Land Use Land Cover (LULC), evapotranspiration, and surface temperature derived from NASA Earth observations, as well as a biophysical table containing land cover class attributes. We developed a heat vulnerability index from American Community Survey datasets and satellite imagery to identify areas in most need of heat mitigation intervention. We found that central and northwest city areas, home to a majority of Milwaukee’s Black and Latine population, have low heat mitigation and high vulnerability to heat impacts compared to the rest of the county. We also found that tree canopy increases across scales are effective in promoting heat mitigation. Our results and end products will bolster the efforts of our partners to make decisions on heat mitigation strategies, build community resilience, and reverse legacies of environmental racism in the face of extreme heat and climate change.
urban heat island↗
Generalizing Microbial Parameters in Soil Biogeochemical Models: Insights From a Multi‐Site Incubation Experiment
Abstract Incorporating microbial processes into soil biogeochemical models has received growing interest. However, determining the parameters that govern microbially driven biogeochemical processes typically requires case‐specific model calibration in various soil and ecosystem types. Here each case refers to an independent and individual experimental unit subjected to repeated measurements. Using the Microbial‐ENzyme Decomposition model, this study aimed to test whether a common set of microbially‐relevant parameters (i.e., generalized parameters) could be obtained across multiple cases based on a two‐year incubation experiment in which soil samples of four distinct soil series (i.e., Coland, Kesswick, Westmoreland, and Etowah) collected from forest and grassland were subjected to cellulose or no cellulose amendment. Results showed that a common set of parameters controlling microbial growth and maintenance as well as extracellular enzyme production and turnover could be generalized at the soil series level but not land cover type. This indicates that microbial model developments need to prioritize soil series type over plant functional types when implemented across various sites. This study also suggests that, in addition to heterotrophic respiration and microbial biomass data, extracellular enzyme data sets are needed to achieve reliable microbial‐relevant parameters for large‐scale soil model projections.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Advancing Fissile Materials Production Modeling with Adaptive Computing Environment and Simulations (ACES)
The Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) provides advanced capabilities to simulate the uranium enrichment process to support international negotiations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Uranium isotope separation centrifuges connected in a cascade configuration can produce the low-enriched uranium needed for nuclear power. However, those same centrifuges connected in a different configuration can also produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. Having the capability to assess cascade operations and identify nefarious activities promotes the peaceful uses of nuclear energy while restricting nuclear weapons proliferation. DNN R&D's Nonproliferation Stewardship Program Adaptive Computing Environment and Simulations (ACES) project is creating a modern, sustainable ecosystem of physics-based models and data-analytics tools that enables analysts to model uranium enrichment systems, simulate operational scenarios, and apply various policy options to explore potential outcomes.
07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning
Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
Coastal Wetland Carbon Sequestration in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)
Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage and locations where carbon and nitrogen cycles have a disproportionately large impact on land, water, and air in comparison to the area they occupy. The extremely high rates of carbon sequestration in these systems are the result of complex feedbacks between vegetation and the physical environment. The plant and microbial interactions that drive these feedbacks are absent in ecosystem- and global-scale Earth System models. The goal of this proposal was to address the uncertain response of the coastal carbon sink to climate change, a critical knowledge gap in coastal carbon research and a significant barrier to incorporating coastal wetlands into Earth System Models. The Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment (SMARTX) was designed to understand the ecosystem-scale consequences of warming and elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) in tidal wetlands at the coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface. We successfully designed and built a novel whole-ecosystem warming and eCO₂ experiment in a coastal wetland. The gradient design of the warming treatments (+0, +1.7, +3.4, +5.1 ⁰C) allowed us to discover unexpected non-linear and non-additive responses arising from plant-microbe interactions. We concluded that these non-linear responses to warming were the result of plants and microbes responding to temperature at different thresholds, with important consequences for forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and understanding global trends.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Support for Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) Field Campaign Report
An important challenge for Earth System Models (ESMs) is to represent land surface and subsurface processes and their complex interactions in a warming climate. This is especially important for arctic ecosystems where permafrost extent, topography, hydrology, vegetation, disturbance, and biogeochemistry are inextricably linked. The implications of such linkages include permafrost thaw and deepening of the active layer, microbial decomposition of vulnerable soil organic matter, altered productivity and migration of tall woody shrubs, and watershed-scale changes in surface and groundwater transport and storage. Although ESMs describe some of these interactions for high-latitude ecosystems, their representation requires extensive confrontation with field and laboratory observations to test and improve models, and to use those models to inspire new observations and experiments. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) is a 10-year project (2012 to 2022) to improve our predictive understanding of carbon-rich arctic system processes and feedbacks to climate. This is achieved through experiments, observations, and synthesis of existing data sets that strategically inform model process representation and parameterization, and that enhance the knowledge base required for model initialization, calibration, and evaluation. One question of special interest to the NGEE Arctic project addresses how above- and below-ground plant functional traits might change across environmental gradients, and what are the consequences for arctic ecosystem C, water, and nutrient fluxes? Arctic plant traits, and their variation in response to changing environmental conditions, will play a key role in the response of tundra ecosystems to warming, permafrost thaw, and the wetter or drier conditions expected in the future. The appropriate representation of these functional traits in models is necessary to accurately represent ecosystem C, water, and nutrient cycling in tundra ecosystems, now and in the future. We characterized the variation in above- and below-ground plant traits in response to varying edaphic and environmental conditions in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. These new data, combined with remote-sensing and synthesis activities across the Arctic and the globe, have been used to inform model structure and parameterization of key processes such as photosynthesis, nutrient dynamics, and trait variation across the landscape.
North Slope of Alaska, arctic processes (meteorolo↗
Future Hurricanes Will Increase Palm Abundance and Decrease Aboveground Biomass in a Tropical Forest
Hurricanes are expected to intensify throughout the 21st century, yet the impact of frequent major hurricanes on tropical ecosystems remains unknown. To investigate tropical forest damage and recovery under different hurricane regimes, we generate a suite of scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections and increased hurricane recurrence and intensity for the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We then use the Ecosystem Demography model to predict changes in carbon stocks, forest structure and composition. In this work, our results indicate that frequent hurricane disturbances in the future would decrease the overall aboveground biomass, decrease the dominance of late-successional species, but increase the dominance of palm species. Warmer climates with increased CO 2 would have little effect on the functional-type composition but increase the aboveground biomass. However, the predicted climate and CO 2 fertilization effects would not compensate for the biomass loss due to more frequent severe-hurricane disturbances.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Novel Protocol for Acute In Situ Ecotoxicity Test Using Native Crustaceans Applied to Groundwater Ecosystems
Current standardized laboratory test protocols use model species that have limitations to accurately assess native species responses to stressors. We developed and tested a novel acute in situ protocol for testing field-collected organisms. We used Asellus aquaticus and NaCl as a reference toxicant to test for the effects of location (laboratory vs. in situ), medium (synthetic vs. field water), substrate (presence vs. absence), and protocol replicability. We further tested the protocol using groundwater-adapted isopods: Proasellus assaforensis for the effect of location, P. cavaticus of medium and P.lusitanicus of substrate. Our results showed that A.aquaticus’ lethality obtained with the novel acute in situ protocol did not significantly differ from those from laboratory testing. However, laboratory tested P.assaforensis showed a higher sensitivity, suggesting that its acclimation to laboratory conditions might have pernicious effects. A. aquaticus and P. cavaticus showed a higher mortality using synthetic medium in situ and under laboratory conditions, which overestimated the stressor’s effect. Besides, substrate use had no significant effect. The novel acute in situ protocol allows the use of native species under realistic scenarios. It is particularly well adapted for assessing the risk of groundwater ecosystems but it can be applied to a wide range of ecosystems.
Castaño-Sánchez, Andrea↗
Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments
Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model–data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA) focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions, DAPPER) that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6 × 10 5 km 2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO 2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO 2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO 2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field plots in the region. We present predictions of stem biomass productivity under elevated CO 2 , decreased precipitation, and increased nutrient availability that include estimates of uncertainty for the southeastern US. Overall, we (1) demonstrated how three decades of research in southeastern US planted pine forests can be used to develop DA techniques that use multiple locations, multiple data streams, and multiple ecosystem experiment types to optimize parameters and (2) developed a tool for the development of future predictions of forest productivity for natural resource managers that leverage a rich dataset of integrated ecosystem observations across a region.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape: Modeling Archive
This modeling archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025). This archive contains model input files and outputs from landscape-scale simulations conducted using ELM, the land model component of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), at the Council NGEE Arctic field site (Council Road mile marker 71) on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. Input data and model output from two sets of ELM simulations are provided. The first set of simulations were conducted with the two default ELM Arctic plant functional types (PFTs; broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub and a C3 grass) and the second set of simulations were conducted with a set of nine Arctic-specific PFTs including nonvascular mosses and lichens, graminoids, forbs, evergreen dwarf shrubs, three height classes of deciduous shrubs (dwarf, low, and low to tall), and deciduous alder shrubs (Sulman et al., 2021). Parameter names and major parameter changes in the Arctic-specific PFT configuration are described in Sulman et al. (2021) and archived in the Sulman et al. (2021) dataset (see below). Simulations were spatially explicit, covering an approximately 6.4X3.3 km domain at the Council site with a spatial resolution of 100 m for a total of 2,112 simulated grid cells under each ELM PFT configuration. The modeling archive contains meteorological forcing (seven *.nc files and one *.txt file), a domain definition file (one *.nc files), land surface configuration files (two *.nc files), parameter files (two *.nc files), annual ELM output files spanning 1980-2014 (68 *.nc files), and a User’s Guide (*pdf file). Additional information on the provided files is in the “Modeling Archive Contents” section of the User’s Guide. Model outputs are aggregated to the column scale (i.e. PFT-specific outputs are not provided here).
Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗