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Results for “Estimation method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1972

The estimation of masses of individual galaxies in clusters of galaxies.

Three different methods of estimating masses are discussed. The 'density method' is based on the analysis of the density distribution of galaxies around the object whose mass is to be found. The 'bound-galaxy method' gives estimates of the mass of a double, triple, or quadruple system from analysis of the orbital motion of the components. The 'virial method' utilizes the formulas derived for the second method to obtain estimates of the virial-theorem masses of whole clusters, and thus to obtain upper limits on the mass of an individual galaxy in a cluster. The analytic formulas are developed and compared with computer experiments, and some applications are given.

Wolf, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Impact and Estimation of Uncertainty Correlation for Multi-Angle Polarimetric Remote Sensing of Aerosols and Ocean Color

Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements contain rich information for characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties that can be used to improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere-ocean system, although uncertainty correlation among measurements is generally ignored due to lack of knowledge on its strength and characterization. In this work, we provide a practical framework to evaluate the impact of the angular uncertainty correlation from retrieval results and a method to estimate correlation strength from retrieval fitting residuals. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification. In addition, we also discuss a flexible approach to include a correlated uncertainty model in the retrieval algorithm. The impact of angular correlation on retrieval uncertainties is discussed based on synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 measurements using a Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation method. Correlation properties are estimated using auto-correlation functions based on the fitting residuals from both synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 data and real AirHARP measurement, with the resulting angular correlation parameters found to be larger than 0.9 and 0.8 for reflectance and DoLP, respectively, which correspond to correlation angles of 10° and 5°. Although this study focuses on angular correlation from HARP instruments, the methodology to study and quantify uncertainty correlation is also applicable to other instruments with angular, spectral, or spatial correlations, and can help inform laboratory calibration and characterization of the instrument uncertainty structure.

PACE↗
NASA NTRS1975

The use of series-solutions for batch and sequential estimation

Iterative methods for the approximate solution of the nonlinear state estimation problem are investigated in which the solution is retained in the form of a finite series of Chebyshev polynomials. Algorithms are presented which allow the state to be estimated from observational data in either the batch or the sequential form. The advantages of these techniques are discussed.

Feagin, T.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Estimating crop proportions from remotely sensed data

The classification/pixel-count method for estimating the proportion of wheat in each segment is theoretically biased even if all distributional assumptions are met. Alternative ways to estimate crop proportions are examined and their performance testing is considered. Topics covered include general linear functional estimates, the method of moments, and maximum likelihood estimators.

Feiveson, A. H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inadequacy of current approaches for characterizing membrane transport properties at high salinities

Cost optimal design of osmotic membrane processes requires an accurate estimate of membrane transport parameters across their full operational range. However, standard approaches for estimating these parameters rely on empirical methods, the accuracy of which remains unquantified as a function of temperature, salinity, and measurement error. Herein, we present a systematic accuracy analysis of previously developed methods for estimation of membrane transport properties in reverse osmosis, high-pressure reverse osmosis, forward osmosis, pressure retarded reverse osmosis, and osmotically assisted reverse osmosis. We use a Monte Carlo approach to sample the full range of feasible membrane water permeabilities, salt permeabilities, structural parameters, and operating conditions for these processes. These material and process parameters are then incorporated into a physical transport model for each process. Our analysis shows that the statistical uncertainty of current empirical methods for estimating membrane parameters increases by 5 times from low-salinity to high-salinity conditions. Here, the result of this work demonstrates that empirical methods are inadequate for precisely estimating membrane transport properties at high salinity and highlight a critical need for the development of statistically validated higher accuracy methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2018

Real-Time Parameter Estimation for Flexible Aircraft

A method for estimating aeroelastic stability and control derivatives for flexible aircraft is developed and demonstrated using flight test data for the X-56A subscale demonstrator. The method uses the equation-error approach with frequency-domain data, and can be applied post-flight or in real time during flight. The non-dimensional aeroelastic forces and moments and the explanatory variables (including generalized displacement, rate, and acceleration states for the vibration modes) are estimated using a finite element model and onboard sensor measurements in both a least squares and Kalman filtering framework. The data are then transformed into the frequency domain for parameter estimation using equation error. This method can result in a more efficient analysis than with other iterative methods, and can leverage existing statistical tools for model structure determination, data collinearity detection, combining multiple maneuvers or prior information, and others to improve model quality.

Grauer, Jared A.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying Soiling Loss Directly From PV Yield

Soiling of photovoltaic (PV) panels is typically quantified through the use of specialized sensors. Here, we describe and validate a method for estimating soiling loss experienced by PV systems directly from system yield without the need for precipitation data. The method, termed the stochastic rate and recovery (SRR) method, automatically detects soiling intervals in a dataset, then stochastically generates a sample of possible soiling profiles based on the observed characteristics of each interval. In this paper, we describe the method, validate it against soiling station measurements, and compare it with other PV-yield-based soiling estimation methods. The broader application of the SRR method will enable the fleet scale assessment of soiling loss to facilitate mitigation planning and risk assessment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Distributed Fiber-optic Strain Sensing to Estimate Generalized Modal Coordinates from Flight-test Data

A method for estimating the generalized modal coordinates of an aircraft during flight has been developed. The Fiber-optic Sensing System (FOSS) offers an efficient and cost-effective method of measuring the strain at thousands of points along the wings. The estimation of modal coordinates was implemented as a two-step process. First, a maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the statistical properties of the sensors and generalized modal coordinates. Second, the strain mode shapes from the finite element model are used along with the statistical properties from the first step to estimate the generalized modal coordinates over time. Using simulated data from the X-56A Multi-Utility Technology Testbed (MUTT), different methods of modal coordinate estimation were compared to demonstrate the benefits and weaknesses of each. These were compared against the exact solution and an ordinary least squares (a more traditional method) estimate. Modal coordinate estimation methods were then applied to flight-test data from the X-56A aircraft to show that the method continues to work well with actual test data. The new estimation method provides insights unavailable from more classical approaches.

Jeffrey Ouellette↗
NASA NTRS1983

Micromechanically Based Constitutive Relations for Polycrystalline Solids

A basic method to estimate the overall mechanical response of solids which contain periodically distributed defects is presented. The method estimates the shape and growth pattern of voids periodically distributed over the grain boundaries in a viscous matrix. The relaxed moduli are obtained for a polycrytalline solid that undergoes relaxation by grain boundary sliding which accounts for the interaction effects. The overall inelastic nonlinear response at elevated temperatures in terms of a model which considers nonlinear power law creep within the grains, and linear viscous flow in the grain boundaries is discussed.

Nemat-Nasser, S.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Estimating GATE rainfall with geosynchronous satellite images

A method of estimating GATE rainfall from either visible or infrared images of geosynchronous satellites is described. Rain is estimated from cumulonimbus cloud area by the equation R = a sub 0 A + a sub 1 dA/dt, where R is volumetric rainfall, A cloud area, t time, and a sub 0 and a sub 1 are constants. Rainfall, calculated from 5.3 cm ship radar, and cloud area are measured from clouds in the tropical North Atlantic. The constants a sub 0 and a sub 1 are fit to these measurements by the least-squares method. Hourly estimates by the infrared version of this technique correlate well (correlation coefficient of 0.84) with rain totals derived from composited radar for an area of 100,000 sq km. The accuracy of this method is described and compared to that of another technique using geosynchronous satellite images. It is concluded that this technique provides useful estimates of tropical oceanic rainfall on a convective scale.

Stout, J. E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of phase state and water content on secondary organic aerosol formation and partitioning (Final Technical Report)

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) account for a major fraction of particulate matter in the atmosphere, affecting climate, air quality, and public health. SOA formation and evolution are highly complex processes involving both chemical reactions and transport of molecules in air, at particle surfaces, and within particles. The state of the matter, or “phase state,” comprising SOA can vary from a liquid, over an amorphous semi-solid, to a glassy solid, depending on chemical composition, water content, relative humidity (RH), and temperature. The occurrence of glassy and amorphous semi-solid states can pose limitations on the rate of transport of molecules, affecting gas-particle interactions and challenging the treatment of SOA in atmospheric models. The objective of this project was to improve fundamental understanding of the interplay of the phase state of particles and water content on the evolution of SOA formation. We have developed a method to estimate the glass transition temperature (T g ) of organic compounds to predict the phase state and viscosity of SOA. This method has been applied to high resolution mass spectrometry data of various types of SOA, achieving a good agreement with viscosity measurements. In addition, the viscosity estimation method was implemented into a regional model CMAQ to simulate diel and seasonal variations of SOA phase state over the U.S. Applying kinetic multilayer modeling, we analyzed laboratory experiments and ARM field measurements (e.g., HI-SCALE) on kinetic limitations of amine uptake. We have also conducted numerical simulations to estimate equilibration timescales of SOA partitioning. Overall, we have evaluated the impacts of phase state and water content on SOA lifecycle that should contribute to reducing the uncertainty of SOA representation in regional climate and air quality predictions. The project has yielded 17 publications, in which DE-SC0018349 is explicitly acknowledged. Please see the list of publications as below, followed by summary of research activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation

A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.

Grauer, Jared A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Utilizing Expert Knowledge in Estimating Future STS Costs

A method of estimating the costs of future space transportation systems (STSs) involves classical activity-based cost (ABC) modeling combined with systematic utilization of the knowledge and opinions of experts to extend the process-flow knowledge of existing systems to systems that involve new materials and/or new architectures. The expert knowledge is particularly helpful in filling gaps that arise in computational models of processes because of inconsistencies in historical cost data. Heretofore, the costs of planned STSs have been estimated following a "top-down" approach that tends to force the architectures of new systems to incorporate process flows like those of the space shuttles. In this ABC-based method, one makes assumptions about the processes, but otherwise follows a "bottoms up" approach that does not force the new system architecture to incorporate a space-shuttle-like process flow. Prototype software has been developed to implement this method. Through further development of software, it should be possible to extend the method beyond the space program to almost any setting in which there is a need to estimate the costs of a new system and to extend the applicable knowledge base in order to make the estimate.

Fortner, David B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observations of Boundary Layer Convergence Lines and Associated Updrafts in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Boundary layer convergence lines (CLs) are highly effective at deep-convection initiation (DCI), suggesting that their associated updraft properties differ from those of more widespread turbulent updrafts in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). This study exploits observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) observatory in Oklahoma from 2011 to 2016 to quantify CL properties and their relation to turbulent PBL eddies preceding CL arrival. Two independent methods for estimating CL properties are developed at two locations in the SGP region, both relying on the assumption of a 2D circulation in the CL-normal plane but using different combinations of instruments. The first (the radar method) relies mainly on scanning radar data and is applied to 61 CLs passing near a high-resolution scanning radar based in Nardin, Oklahoma, while the second (the surface method) relies mainly on surface wind data and is applied to 68 CLs crossing the SGP facility in nearby Lamont, Oklahoma. Mean daytime (1000–1900 LST) CL width (∼2 km) and convergence magnitude (∼0.003 s −1 ) are similar for both methods, and mean daytime CL depth is ∼0.75 km. The two methods disagree at night (0000–1000 and 1900–2400 LST), where the surface method estimates wider and weaker CLs than the radar method. This difference may stem from the radar beam overshooting the shallow, highly stable nocturnal PBL. The largest CL updrafts are slightly wider (∼20%) and stronger (∼40%) than the largest PBL updrafts in the pre-CL period, generating 50%–100% larger updraft mass fluxes over most of the PBL depth. Significance Statement Deep convection is commonly initiated by boundary layer convergence lines (CLs), which are associated with intense surface-based wind convergence and strong updrafts that may lift air to saturation. Although CLs form regularly, they are far less common than ordinary, short-lived turbulent thermals in the daytime boundary layer. To better understand why CLs are so effective at deep-convection initiation, we observationally quantify their morphologies and strengths and compare these properties to those of surrounding turbulent updrafts. Perhaps surprisingly, the CLs are found to exhibit only slightly larger scales and strengths as the turbulent updrafts. Although these marginal increases help to explain the preference for storms to initiate along CLs, they likely are not the whole story.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of methods to assess the uncertainty in estimated energy savings

In this work we present a methodology to evaluate the accuracy of methods used to quantify the uncertainty in estimated total energy savings. We focus on savings measurement and verification (M&V) approaches that use a baseline model to characterize energy use, and that forward-project the model for a counterfactual to determine avoided energy use. These approaches are common to the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol's (IPMVP's) Option C and Option B. This methodology can be used to evaluate the uncertainty in savings estimates that are due to model error. It has been applied to evaluate two uncertainty estimation methods, including the industry standard ASHRAE Guideline 14 approach. The evaluation used data from 69 commercial buildings and four different baseline models that span daily and hourly granularity, as well as linear and non-linear/non-parametric forms. The findings of this work indicate that the standard methods that are widely used by the M&V community for estimating the total savings uncertainty over the post-installation period tend to underestimate the uncertainty. The tendency to underestimate the uncertainty is stronger for hourly models than for daily models, due to stronger autocorrelation in model residuals at the hourly time scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗