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At least 811 records · Page 45

Methane emissions from dairies in the Los Angeles Basin

We estimate the amount of methane (CH 4 ) emitted by the largest dairies in the southern California region by combining measurements from four mobile solar-viewing ground-based spectrometers (EM27/SUN), in situ isotopic 13/12 CH 4 measurements from a CRDS analyzer (Picarro), and a high-resolution atmospheric transport simulation with a Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode (WRF-LES). The remote sensing spectrometers measure the total column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CH 4 and CO 2 (X CH 4 and X CO 2 ) in the near infrared region, providing information on total emissions of the dairies at Chino. Differences measured between the four EM27/SUN ranged from 0.2 to 22ppb (part per billion) and from 0.7 to 3ppm (part per million) for X CH 4 and X CO 2 , respectively. To assess the fluxes of the dairies, these differential measurements are used in conjunction with the local atmospheric dynamics from wind measurements at two local airports and from the WRF-LES simulations at 111m resolution. Our top-down CH 4 emissions derived using the Fourier transform spectrometers (FTS) observations of 1.4 to 4.8ppts -1 are in the low end of previous top-down estimates, consistent with reductions of the dairy farms and urbanization in the domain. However, the wide range of inferred fluxes points to the challenges posed by the heterogeneity of the sources and meteorology. Inverse modeling from WRF-LES is utilized to resolve the spatial distribution of CH 4 emissions in the domain. Both the model and the measurements indicate heterogeneous emissions, with contributions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources at Chino. A Bayesian inversion and a Monte Carlo approach are used to provide the CH 4 emissions of 2.2 to 3.5ppts -1 at Chino.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future

The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to study the effect of extreme weather events on ozone in the US for historical (2001–2010) and future (2046–2055) periods under the RCP8.5 scenario. During extreme weather events, including heat waves, atmospheric stagnation, and their compound events, ozone concentration is much higher compared to the non-extreme events period. A striking enhancement of effect during compound events is revealed when heat wave and stagnation occur simultaneously as both high temperature and low wind speed promote the production of high ozone concentrations. In regions with high emissions, compound extreme events can shift the high-end tails of the probability density functions (PDFs) of ozone to even higher values to generate extreme ozone episodes. In regions with low emissions, extreme events can still increase high-ozone frequency but the high-end tails of the PDFs are constrained by the low emissions. Despite the large anthropogenic emission reduction projected for the future, compound events increase ozone more than the single events by 10 to 13%, comparable to the present, and high-ozone episodes with a maximum daily 8h average (MDA8) ozone concentration over 70ppbv are not eliminated. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the frequency of compound events is found to increase more dominantly compared to the increased frequency of single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China. High-ozone episodes will likely continue in the future due to increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events, despite reductions in anthropogenic emissions of its precursors. However, the latter could reduce or eliminate extreme ozone episodes; thus improving projections of compound events and their impacts on extreme ozone may better constrain future projections of extreme ozone episodes that have detrimental effects on human health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: spatiotemporal characteristics and source contributions

Aerosols in the middle and upper troposphere have a long enough lifetime for trans-Pacific transport from East Asia to North America to influence air quality on the west coast of the United States (US). Here, we conduct quasi-global simulations (180 °W–180 °E and 70 °S–75 °N) from 2010 to 2014 using an updated version of WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model fully coupled with chemistry) to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and source contributions of trans-Pacific aerosol transport. We find that trans-Pacific total aerosols have a maximum mass concentration (about 15 µg m –3 ) in the boreal spring with a peak between 3 and 4 km above the surface around 40 °N. Sea salt and dust dominate the total aerosol mass concentration below 1 km and above 4 km, respectively. About 80.8 Tg of total aerosols (48.7 Tg of dust) are exported annually from East Asia, of which 26.7 Tg of aerosols (13.4 Tg of dust) reach the west coast of the US. Dust contributions from four desert regions in the Northern Hemisphere are analyzed using a tracer-tagging technique. About 4.9, 3.9, and 4.5 Tg year –1 of dust aerosol emitted from north Africa, the Middle East and central Asia, and East Asia, respectively, can be transported to the west coast of the US. The trans-Pacific aerosols dominate the column-integrated aerosol mass (~65.5 %) and number concentration (~80 %) over western North America. Radiation budget analysis shows that the inflow aerosols could contribute about 86.4 % (–2.91 W m –2 ) at the surface, 85.5 % (+1.36 W m –2 ) in the atmosphere, and 87.1 % (–1.55 W m –2 ) at the top of atmosphere to total aerosol radiative effect over western North America. However, near the surface in central and eastern North America, aerosols are mainly derived from local emissions, and the radiative effect of imported aerosols decreases rapidly. This study motivates further investigations of the potential impacts of trans-Pacific aerosols from East Asia on regional air quality and the hydrological cycle in North America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urbanization-induced land and aerosol impacts on sea-breeze circulation and convective precipitation

Abstract. Changes in land cover and aerosols resulting from urbanization may impact convective clouds and precipitation. Here we investigate how Houston urbanization can modify sea-breeze-induced convective cloud and precipitation through the urban land effect and anthropogenic aerosol effect. The simulations are carried out with the Chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem), which is coupled with spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) and the multilayer urban model with a building energy model (BEM-BEP). We find that Houston urbanization (the joint effect of both urban land and anthropogenic aerosols) notably enhances storm intensity (by ∼ 75 % in maximum vertical velocity) and precipitation intensity (up to 45 %), with the anthropogenic aerosol effect more significant than the urban land effect. Urban land effect modifies convective evolution: speed up the transition from the warm cloud to mixed-phase cloud, thus initiating surface rain earlier but slowing down the convective cell dissipation, all of which result from urban heating-induced stronger sea-breeze circulation. The anthropogenic aerosol effect becomes evident after the cloud evolves into the mixed-phase cloud, accelerating the development of storm from the mixed-phase cloud to deep cloud by ∼ 40 min. Through aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI), aerosols boost convective intensity and precipitation mainly by activating numerous ultrafine particles at the mixed-phase and deep cloud stages. This work shows the importance of considering both the urban land and anthropogenic aerosol effects for understanding urbanization effects on convective clouds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impacts of biomass burning activities on convective systems over the Maritime Continent

Convective precipitation associated with Sumatra squall lines and diurnal rainfall over Borneo is an important weather feature of the Maritime Continent in Southeast Asia. Over the past few decades, biomass burning activities have been widespread during summertime over this region, producing massive fire aerosols. These additional aerosols, when brought into the atmosphere, besides influencing the local radiation budget through directly scattering and absorbing sunlight, can also act as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei to alter convective clouds and precipitation over the Maritime Continent via so-called aerosol indirect effects. Based on 4-month simulations with or without biomass burning aerosols, conducted using theWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry module (WRFChem), we have investigated the aerosol–cloud interactions associated with biomass burning aerosols over the Maritime Continent. Results from selected cases of convective events have specifically shown the significant impact of fire aerosols on weak convections by their increasing of the quantities of hydrometeors and rainfall in both the Sumatra and Borneo regions. Statistical analysis over the fire season also suggests that fire aerosols have impacts on the nocturnal convections associated with the local anticyclonic circulation in western Borneo and weaken nocturnal rainfall intensity by about 9 %. Such an effect is likely to have come from the near-surface heating due to absorbing aerosols emitted from fires, which could weaken land breezes and thus the convergence of anticyclonic circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of long-range-transported mineral dust on summertime convective cloud and precipitation: a case study over the Taiwan region

As one of the most abundant atmospheric aerosols and effective ice nuclei, mineral dust affects clouds and precipitation in the Earth system. Here numerical experiments are carried out to investigate the impacts of dust aerosols on summertime convective clouds and precipitation over the mountainous region of Taiwan by acting as ice-nucleating particles. We run the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the Morrison two-moment and spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) schemes at 3 km resolution, using dust number concentrations from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem-APM). The case study indicates that the long-range-transported mineral dust, with relatively low number concentrations, can notably affect the properties of convective clouds (ice and liquid water contents, cloud top height, and cloud coverage) and precipitation (spatial pattern and intensity). The effects of dust are evident during strong convective periods, with significantly increased ice water contents in the mixed-phase regime via the enhanced heterogeneous freezing. With both the Morrison and SBM schemes, we see the invigoration effects of dust aerosols on the convective intensity through enhanced condensation and deposition latent heating. The low-altitude dust particles are uplifted to the freezing level by updrafts, which, in turn, enhance the convective cloud development through immersion freezing and convective invigoration. Compared to the Morrison scheme, the SBM scheme predicts more realistic precipitation and different invigoration effects of dust. The differences are partially attributed to the saturation adjustment approach utilized in the bulk scheme, which leads to a stronger enhancement of condensation at midlatitudes to low altitudes and a weaker deposition increase at the upper level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of cloud microphysics parameterizations on simulated aerosol–cloud interactions for deep convective clouds over Houston

Aerosol–cloud interactions remain largely uncertain with respect to predicting their impacts on weather and climate. Cloud microphysics parameterization is one of the factors leading to large uncertainty. Here, we investigate the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the convective intensity and precipitation of a thunderstorm occurring on 19 June 2013 over Houston with the Chemistry version of Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF-Chem) using the Morrison two-moment bulk scheme and spectral bin microphysics (SBM) scheme. We find that the SBM predicts a deep convective cloud that shows better agreement with observations in terms of reflectivity and precipitation compared with the Morrison bulk scheme that has been used in many weather and climate models. With the SBM scheme, we see a significant invigoration effect on convective intensity and precipitation by anthropogenic aerosols, mainly through enhanced condensation latent heating. Such an effect is absent with the Morrison two-moment bulk microphysics, mainly because the saturation adjustment approach for droplet condensation and evaporation calculation limits the enhancement by aerosols in (1) condensation latent heat by removing the dependence of condensation on droplets and aerosols and (2) ice-related processes because the approach leads to stronger warm rain and weaker ice processes than the explicit supersaturation approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increased importance of aerosol–cloud interactions for surface PM 2.5 pollution relative to aerosol–radiation interactions in China with the anthropogenic emission reductions

Surface fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution can be enhanced by feedback processes induced by aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Many previous studies have reported enhanced PM 2.5 concentrations induced by ARIs and ACIs for episodic events in China. However, few studies have examined the changes in the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancements over a long period, though the anthropogenic emissions have changed substantially in the last decade. In this study, we quantify the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 changes for 2013–2021 under different meteorology and emission scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and we investigate the driving factors behind the changes. Our results show that, in January 2013, when China suffered from the worst PM 2.5 pollution, the PM 2.5 enhancement induced by ARIs in eastern China (5.59 µg m −3 ) was larger than that induced by ACIs (3.96 µg m −3 ). However, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement showed a significantly smaller decrease ratio (51 %) than the ARI-induced enhancement (75 %) for 2013–2021, making ACIs more important for enhancing PM 2.5 concentrations in January 2021. Our analyses suggest that the anthropogenic emission reductions played a key role in this shift. Owing to only anthropogenic emission reductions, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement decreased by 43 % in January, which was lower than the decrease ratio of the ARI-induced enhancement (57 %). The relative change in ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement in July was similar to the pattern observed in January, caused by anthropogenic emission reductions. The primary reason for this phenomenon is that the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 for 2013–2021 caused a disproportionately small decrease in the liquid water path (LWP) and an increase in the cloud effective radius (Re) under the condition of high PM 2.5 concentrations. Therefore, the surface solar radiation attenuation (and, hence, the boundary layer height reduction) caused by ACIs decreased slower than that caused by ARIs. Moreover, the lower decrease ratio of the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement was dominated by the lower decrease ratio of ACI-induced secondary PM 2.5 component enhancement, which was additionally caused by the smaller decrease ratio of the air temperature reduction and the relative humidity (RH) increase. Our findings indicate that, with the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 , the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement inevitably becomes more important. This needs to be considered in the formulation of control policies to meet the national PM 2.5 air quality standard.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Implications of Sea Breeze Circulations on boundary layer aerosols in the southern coastal Texas region

The Sea Breeze Circulation (SBC) influences atmospheric processes at multiple scales in coastal regions. Understanding how SBCs impact the aerosol number budget and aerosol–cloud interaction processes is essential. This study investigates sea breeze–aerosol interactions (SAIs) during 46 summertime SBC events using data from the TRacking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign across urban (main) and rural (supplemental) coastal sites in southern Texas. Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations complement observations to explore spatio-temporal meteorological controls on boundary layer aerosols. During the summertime, Sea Breeze Fronts (SBF) penetrating inland transported cool, moist air over the land, introducing air masses with distinct properties compared to the preexisting continental air. These SAIs cause variability in number concentrations of up to a factor of two, with events typically lasting ∼ 5 h before returning to background conditions. SAI impact on aerosols varies with site proximity to water and the preceding sea breeze (SB) history, primarily affecting the marine-influenced accumulation mode. The main site, influenced by both Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, reflects a stronger marine influence. In contrast, a supplemental site, at a similar shoreline distance but exposed only to the Gulf of Mexico and typically upstream of the urban core, samples SB air that has traversed land and partially regained continental characteristics. Simulations show that the regional SAIs extend ∼ 50 km inland and reach up to the boundary layer height. SAIs further decrease cloud condensation nuclei relevant aerosol number concentrations in ∼ 20 % of events during SBF passage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of WRF (v 4.2.1) dynamically downscaled precipitation on subdaily and daily timescales over CONUS

Abstract. This study analyzes the quality of simulated historical precipitation across the contiguous United States (CONUS) in a 12 km Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.2.1 (WRF v 4.2.1)-based dynamical downscaling of the fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). This work addresses the following questions. First, how well are the 3 and 24 h precipitation characteristics (diurnal and annual cycles, precipitation frequency, annual and seasonal mean and maximum precipitation, and distribution of seasonal maximum precipitation) represented in the downscaled simulation, compared to ERA5? And second, how does the performance of the simulated WRF precipitation vary across seasons, regions, and timescales? Performance is measured against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC) 4 km Stage IV and Oregon State University Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data on 3 and 24 h timescales, respectively. Our analysis suggests that the 12 km WRF exhibits biases typically found in other WRF simulations, including those at convection-permitting scales. In particular, WRF simulates both the timing and magnitude of the summer diurnal precipitation peak as well as ERA5 over most of the CONUS, except for a delayed diurnal peak over the Great Plains. As compared to ERA5, both the month and the magnitude of the precipitation peak annual cycle are remarkably improved in the downscaled WRF simulation. WRF slightly overestimates 3 and 24 h precipitation maximum over the CONUS, in contrast to ERA5, which generally underestimates these quantities mainly over the eastern half of the CONUS. Notably, WRF better captures the probability density distribution (PDF) of 3 and 24 h annual and seasonal maximum precipitation. WRF exhibits seasonally dependent precipitation biases across the CONUS, while ERA5's biases are relatively consistent year round over most of the CONUS. These results suggest that dynamical downscaling to a higher resolution improves upon some precipitation metrics but is susceptible to common regional climate model biases. Consequently, if used as input data for domain-specific models, we suggest moderate bias correction be applied to the dynamically downscaled product.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental protocol for phase 1 of the APARC QUOCA (QUasibiennial oscillation and Ozone Chemistry interactions in the Atmosphere) working group

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, influencing the predictability of other regions in the atmosphere through its teleconnections to the stratospheric polar vortices and coupling to surface tropical and extratropical variability. However, climate and forecasting models consistently underestimate QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere, likely contributing to their failure to simulate these teleconnections. One underexplored contributor to model biases is missing representation of ozone-radiative feedbacks, which enhance temperature variability in the lower stratosphere, particularly at periods at and greater than the QBO (>28 months). While previous studies suggest that ozone-radiative feedbacks can impact QBO periods, amplitudes and the associated secondary circulation in the lower stratosphere, the reported impacts differ widely among models and are hard to interpret due to differences in methodology. To this end, here we propose a coordinated experimental protocol – held joint between the Atmospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (APARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Initiative (QBOi) and Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) activities – which is aimed at assessing the coupling between stratospheric ozone, temperature and the circulation. We use the proposed experiments to define the ozone feedback on the QBO in both present-day and idealized (abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide) climates. While primary focus is on the QBO, the proposed protocol also enables analysis of other aspects of ozone-radiative-dynamical coupling in the atmosphere, including impacts on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and tropospheric eddy-driven jet responses to future climate change. Here we document the scientific rationale and design of the QUOCA Phase 1 experiments, summarize the data request, and give a brief overview of participating models. Preliminary results using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2-2 climate model are used to illustrate sensitivities to certain methodological choices.

Environmental sciences↗

Idealized simulations of wind farm interactions with intermittent turbulence in stable boundary layer conditions

Stable atmospheric boundary layer conditions typically correspond to weak turbulence levels, but intermittent periods of elevated turbulence can occur during otherwise quiescent conditions. The interaction between intermittent turbulence and wind turbines is not well understood because of sparse observations, as well as the difficulty in realistically resolving small-scale turbulence during strongly stable conditions with numerical simulations. In this study, an explicit filtering and reconstruction approach for large-eddy simulation (LES) is used to simulate weakly and strongly stable conditions, with surface cooling rates of −0.2 and −2.0 K h −1 , respectively. This approach can sustain resolved background turbulence at relatively coarse grid spacing and stronger stratification compared to conventional closures, permitting more realistic intermittent stable boundary layer (SBL) turbulence. The idealized LES capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model is employed with turbine rotors parameterized using generalized actuator disks to examine (1) how the presence of turbine wakes affects SBL evolution and (2) the effect of intermittent turbulence on power production and wake recovery. Wakes increase mixing and deepen the SBL, with a stronger effect under strongly stable conditions, primarily because the SBL is shallower and closer to the top of the wind turbine rotor layer. Intermittent turbulence does not have a significant impact on mean power generation and wake recovery because the relevant intermittent turbulent structures in this study only affect the bottom half of the rotor disk. Power production is, however, more variable during periods of elevated turbulence, demonstrating the impact of SBL intermittency. This study uses an idealized configuration, focusing on LES model performance and physical understanding, with the goal of informing future simulations of the conditions observed during the American Wake Experiment.

Energy - Wind↗

Quantifying wind plant blockage under stable atmospheric conditions

Wind plant blockage reduces the wind velocity upstream undermining turbine performance for the first row of the plant. We assess how atmospheric stability modifies the induction zone of a wind plant in flat terrain. We also explore different approaches to quantifying the magnitude and extent of the induction zone from field-like observations. To investigate the influence from atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stable boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. We find a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces a stronger stably stratified boundary layer, amplifies the induction zone of both an isolated turbine and of a large wind plant. A statistical analysis on the hub-height wind speed field shows wind slowdowns only extend far upstream (up to 15D) of a wind plant in strong stable boundary layers. To evaluate different ways of measuring wind plant blockage from field-like observations, we consider various ways of estimating the freestream velocity upstream of the plant. Sampling a large area upstream is the most accurate approach to estimating the freestream conditions, and thus of measuring the blockage effect. Also, the choice of sampling method may induce errors of the same order as the velocity deficit in the induction zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating the physical mechanisms that modify wind plant blockage in stable boundary layers

Abstract. Wind plants slow down the approaching wind, a phenomenon known as blockage. Wind plant blockage undermines turbine performance for front-row turbines and potentially for turbines deeper into the array. We use large-eddy simulations to characterize blockage upstream of a finite-size wind plant in flat terrain for different atmospheric stability conditions and investigate the physical mechanisms modifying the flow upstream of the turbines. To examine the influence of atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stably stratified boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. For a wind plant, a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces stronger stably stratified flow in the boundary layer, amplifies blockage. As a novelty, we investigate the physical mechanisms amplifying blockage by evaluating the different terms in the momentum conservation equation within the turbine rotor layer. The velocity deceleration upstream of a wind plant is caused by an adverse pressure gradient and momentum advection out of the turbine rotor layer. The cumulative deceleration of the flow upstream of the front-row turbines instigates vertical motions. The horizontal flow is diverted vertically, reducing momentum availability in the turbine rotor layer. Although the adverse pressure gradient upstream of the wind plant remains unchanged with atmospheric stability, vertical advection of horizontal momentum is amplified in the more strongly stable boundary layer, mainly by larger shear of the horizontal velocity, thus increasing the blockage effect.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Rapid Refresh 20km

Rapid Refresh 20km forecast model data converted from GRIB data files generated by NCEP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid Refresh 20km (Syn)

Rapid Refresh 20km forecast model data converted from GRIB data files generated by NCEP. Subgrids of 4 adjacent points averaged together.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microwave Radiometer: Meteorological Temperature Profiler (raw)

The microwave radiometer profiler (MWRP) provides vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and cloud liquid water content as a function of height or pressure at approximately 5-minute intervals for nearly all weather conditions. The profiles are derived from measurements of absolute microwave radiances (expressed as "brightness temperatures") obtained at 12 frequencies in the range of 22-30 GHz and 51-59 GHz. The data are useful for input to numerical weather forecast models and others that require continuous, high-temporal-resolution profiles. The microwave radiance measurements are useful for testing models of microwave radiation transfer used to derive the profiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic Mixing WRF Setup

Documents describing how to set up simulations using a novel stochastic mixing scheme within the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗