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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Enhanced Reservoir Evaporation Losses From CMIP6‐Based Future Projections in the Contiguous United States

Abstract Enhanced reservoir evaporation has become an emerging concern regarding water loss, especially when compounded with the ever‐increasing water demand. In this study, we evaluated the evaporation rates and losses for 678 major reservoirs (representing nearly 90% of total storage capacity) in the Contiguous United States over historical baseline (1980–2019), near‐term (2020–2039), and mid‐term (2040–2059) future periods. The evaporation rate was estimated using the Lake Evaporation Model (LEM), an advanced lake evaporation model that addresses both heat storage and fetch effects, driven by multi‐ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects 6 (CMIP6) projections under the SSP585 emission scenario. The results project that the evaporation loss may increase by 2.5 × 10 7 m 3 /yr through the research period (1980–2059). Among all regions, the Rio Grande is projected to have the largest increasing rate in the near‐term and mid‐term future, with values of 7.11% of 10.25%, respectively. At the seasonal scale, the most significant increase in the evaporation rate is projected during the fall. The evaporation is projected to increase faster than the streamflow over many of the regions in the southwestern US during the summer/fall, suggesting that the shortage of water will be further exacerbated. The climate models contribute the most to the variance, as compared to the other components related to the projection of evaporation losses (e.g., hydrological model, downscaling method, and historical meteorological data set). These findings demonstrate the need to consider accelerated water loss through open water evaporation in long‐term water resources planning across various spatiotemporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Spin–phonon couplings in transition metal complexes with slow magnetic relaxation

Spin–phonon coupling plays an important role in single-molecule magnets and molecular qubits. However, there have been few detailed studies of its nature. Here in this paper, we show for the first time distinct couplings of g phonons of Co II (acac) 2 (H 2 O) 2 (acac = acetylacetonate) and its deuterated analogs with zero-field-split, excited magnetic/spin levels (Kramers doublet (KD)) of the S = 3/2 electronic ground state. The couplings are observed as avoided crossings in magnetic-field-dependent Raman spectra with coupling constants of 1–2 cm -1 . Far-IR spectra reveal the magnetic-dipole-allowed, inter-KD transition, shifting to higher energy with increasing field. Density functional theory calculations are used to rationalize energies and symmetries of the phonons. A vibronic coupling model, supported by electronic structure calculations, is proposed to rationalize the behavior of the coupled Raman peaks. In conclusion, this work spectroscopically reveals and quantitates the spin–phonon couplings in typical transition metal complexes and sheds light on the origin of the spin–phonon entanglement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

The effect of output-input isolation on the scaling and energy consumption of all-spin logic devices

All-spin logic (ASL) is a novel approach for digital logic applications wherein spin is used as the state variable instead of charge. One of the challenges in realizing a practical ASL system is the need to ensure non-reciprocity, meaning the information flows from input to output, not vice versa. One approach described previously, is to introduce an asymmetric ground contact, and while this approach was shown to be effective, it remains unclear as to the optimal approach for achieving non-reciprocity in ASL. In this study, we quantitatively analyze techniques to achieve non-reciprocity in ASL devices, and we specifically compare the effect of using asymmetric ground position and dipole-coupled output/input isolation. For this analysis, we simulate the switching dynamics of multiple-stage logic devices with FePt and FePd perpendicular magnetic anisotropy materials using a combination of a matrix-based spin circuit model coupled to the Landau–Lifshitz–Gilbert equation. The dipole field is included in this model and can act as both a desirable means of coupling magnets and a source of noise. The dynamic energy consumption has been calculated for these schemes, as a function of input/output magnet separation, and the results show that using a scheme that electrically isolates logic stages produces superior non-reciprocity, thus allowing both improved scaling and reduced energy consumption.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Refining NEAMS MARVEL Reactor Model Accuracy

This report outlines the progress of Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in improving the fidelity of the multiphysics model of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor developed in FY24. The multiphysics model firstly developed in FY24 leverages three single-physics models coupled via the MOOSE’s MultiApps and Transfer systems. The first single-physics model, that functions as the driver application, leverages Griffin to model the neutron transport in the core through the discontinuous finite element (DFEM) discrete ordinates solver (SN). The second single-physics model uses BISON to compute the solid temperature in the reactor. Finally, the System Analysis Module (SAM) was used to model the flow of the sodium-potassium eutectic in the primary loop. In this report we detail the following improvement and enhancements: • An updated mesh leveraging the latest feature in the reactor module (see Section 3.1.).

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model

We illustrate the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's CM4.0 physical climate model, with emphasis on those aspects that may be of particular importance to users of this model and its simulations. The model is built with the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model and OM4.0 ocean model. Topics include the rationale for key choices made in the model formulation, the stability as well as drift of the preindustrial control simulation, and comparison of key aspects of the historical simulations with observations from recent decades. Notable achievements include the relatively small biases in seasonal spatial patterns of top-of-atmosphere fluxes, surface temperature, and precipitation; reduced double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias; dramatically improved representation of ocean boundary currents; a high-quality simulation of climatological Arctic sea ice extent and its recent decline; and excellent simulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation spectrum and structure. Areas of concern include inadequate deep convection in the Nordic Seas; an inaccurate Antarctic sea ice simulation; precipitation and wind composites still affected by the equatorial cold tongue bias; muted variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; strong 100 year quasiperiodicity in Southern Ocean ventilation; and a lack of historical warming before 1990 and too rapid warming thereafter due to high climate sensitivity and strong aerosol forcing, in contrast to the observational record. Overall, CM4.0 scores very well in its fidelity against observations compared to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 generation in terms of both mean state and modes of variability and should prove a valuable new addition for analysis across a broad array of applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Temporal coupled-mode theory model for resonant near-field thermophotovoltaics

A temporal Coupled-Mode Theory model is developed to predict performance of resonant near-field ThermoPhotoVoltaic systems, which typically requires numerically intensive calculations. It is formulated for both orthogonal and non-orthogonal (coupled) modes and includes load-voltage dependencies and non-idealities, such as background absorption and radiation losses. Its good accuracy is confirmed by comparing with exact transfer-matrix calculations for two simple planar systems: a plasmonic emitter across a bulk semiconductor absorber and a metal-backed thin-film semiconductor emitter across an identical absorber.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Stability of multirate explicit coupling of geomechanics with flow in a poroelastic medium

We consider single rate and multirate explicit schemes for the Biot system modeling coupled flow and geomechanics in a poro-elastic medium. These schemes are widely used in practice that follows a sequential procedure in which the flow and mechanics problems are fully decoupled. In such a scheme, the flow problem is solved first with time-lagging the displacement term followed by the mechanics solve. The multirate explicit coupling scheme exploits the different time scales for the mechanics and flow problems by taking multiple finer time steps for flow within one coarse mechanics time step. We provide fully discrete schemes for both the single and multirate approaches that use Backward Euler time discretization and mixed spaces for flow and conformal Galerkin for mechanics. We perform a rigorous stability analysis and derive the conditions on reservoir parameters and the number of finer flow solves to ensure stability for both schemes. Furthermore, we investigate the computational time savings for explicit coupling schemes against iterative coupling schemes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in soil water content and lateral flow exert large effects on soil thermal dynamics across Alaskan landscapes

Both lateral surface and subsurface water flow affect soil moisture dynamics, yet most land surface models only solve subsurface water movement vertically. Here, we use a 3D ecosystem model that considers both land surface and subsurface hydrologic processes to simulate soil moisture, which is then used to drive a 1-D vertical soil thermal model to simulate the soil moisture effects on soil thermal dynamics in central Alaska. Our coupled model improves soil temperature (ST) estimates by 43.5% in comparison with observational data. Soil moisture has little effect on ST during the wet season (-1.5%) and a substantial influence during the dry season (60%). Spatially, water lateral flow has significant impacts on both soil moisture and ST, causing model estimates for thawed areas in the transition season to increase by ~10% in the study area. Our results highlight the importance of considering dynamical soil moisture, as well as lateral flow effects, on soil thermal dynamics in permafrost regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): Simulation design and preliminary results

We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more long wave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. In conclusion, this is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmarking performance changes in the simulation of extratropical modes of variability across CMIP generations

In this work, we evaluate extratropical modes of variability in the three most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3, 5, and 6) to gauge improvement of climate models over time. A suite of high-level metrics is employed to objectively evaluate how well climate models simulate the qobserved Northern Annular Mode (NAM), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North America pattern (PNA), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). We apply a Common Basis Function (CBF) approach that projects model anomalies onto observed empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), together with the traditional EOF approach, to CMIP Historical and AMIP models. We find simulated spatial patterns of those modes have been significantly improved in the newer models, although the skill improvement is sensitive to the mode and season considered. We identify some potential contributions to the pattern improvement of certain modes (e.g., the Southern Hemisphere jet and High-top vertical coordinate), however the performance changes are likely attributed to gradual improvement of the base climate and multiple relevant processes. Less performance improvement is evident in the mode amplitude of these modes and systematic overestimation of the mode amplitude in spring remains in the newer climate models. We find that the post-dominant season amplitude errors in atmospheric modes are not limited to coupled runs but are often already evident in AMIP simulations. This suggests that rectifying the egregious post-dominant season amplitude errors found in many models can be addressed in an atmospheric-only framework making it more tractable to address in the model development process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Influence of Shallow Subsurface Properties on Particle Motion in Acoustic-Seismic Coupling

Atmospheric acoustic waves transmit energy into the solid Earth through air-to-ground coupling. These waves are recorded by seismic sensors and provide insight into both atmospheric phenomena and subsurface properties. Interpreting these signals is often challenging because they are modulated by subsurface structure and the incidence angle of the acoustic wave. This study examines acoustic--seismic coupling generated by the 2012 Camp Minden Explosion, which was recorded by hundreds of seismoacoustic stations. We apply a novel technique to quantify the seismic particle motion, model coupled waves with a propagator matrix approach, and apply a Bayesian inversion to infer properties of the shallow subsurface. Our analysis reveals that prograde motion is widespread and focused in low shear-wave velocity regions, such as the Mississippi Embayment, and retrograde motion is more common in higher shear-velocity areas. Inversion results at some stations produce plausible subsurface models with strong waveform fits, while inversions at other sites are less successful. These results indicate prograde particle motion in air-to-ground coupled waves is more prevalent than previously recognized and may serve as a diagnostic for shallow velocity structure. Our comprehensive modeling and inversion framework provides a potential method to extract layered near-surface properties from acoustic-seismic coupling observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979–2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Concurrent Inter-Model Spread of Boreal Winter Westerly Jet Meridional Positions Between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in CMIP6 Models

Here, this study investigates the inter-model spread of climatological extratropical westerly jets in boreal winter, using the historical simulation of 52 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models from 1851 to 2014. The results show that there is a substantial spread in the latitude of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet across models, characterised by large inter-model standard deviations to both the poleward and equatorward sides of the jet axis, although the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) performs well in simulating meridional position of westerly jets. Furthermore, we detect the consistency of inter-model jet position spread between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, based on the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation of regional-averaged zonal winds. Specifically, the models that simulate the westerly jets poleward/equatorward relative to the MME position in one hemisphere also tend to simulate the jets poleward/equatorward in the other hemisphere. Accordingly, we define a global jet spread index to depict the concurrence of jet shift in the two hemispheres. The results of inter-model regression analyses based on this index indicate that the models positioning the jets poleward than the MME tend to simulate a wider Hadley Cell, a poleward-shifted Ferrel Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, enhanced precipitation in the subtropics and suppressed precipitation in the tropics, and warmer sea surface temperatures in the subtropics and mid-latitudes. The present results suggest that improving the simulation of jet positions in climate models requires a comprehensive consideration of thermal states in the tropics and subtropics/mid latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On multidomain multiscale modeling and simulation of a novel partial pressure and temperature swing adsorptive reactor ($\mathrm{PPTSAR}$) with application to the water gas shift reaction

Here in this work, a dynamic, multidomain, multiscale model of a novel Partial Pressure and Temperature Swing Adsorptive Reactor (PPTSAR) Process is developed and simulated for a Water Gas Shift Reaction (WGSR) application. The proposed model couples the reactor wall, catalyst/adsorbent pellet, and fluid mixture domains at their respective scales to comprehensively model mass, momentum, and energy transport phenomena occurring within each domain. The resulting model elucidates the PPTSAR’s start-up, transient, and long-term, periodic, dynamic behavior, during both adsorption/reaction and desorption operating modes. In the WGSR application considered, the use of two PPTSARs is shown to allow continuous operation that delivers CO conversion greater than 95% with simultaneous complete CO 2 capture.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2012

How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?

Projected changes in the extra–tropical wintertime storm tracks are investigated using the multi–model ensembles from both the third and fifth phases of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The aim is to characterize the magnitude of the storm track responses relative to their present–day year–to–year variability. For the experiments considered, the ‘middle–of–the–road’ scenarios in each CMIP, there are regions of the Northern Hemisphere where the responses of up to 40% of the models exceed half of the inter–annual variability, and for the Southern Hemisphere there are regions where up to 60% of the model responses exceed half of the inter–annual variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗