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At least 811 records · Page 45

Effects of Temperature on Development and Voltinism of Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae): Implications for Climate Change Impacts

Temperature plays an important role in the growth and development of arthropods, and thus the current trend of climate change will alter their biology and species distribution. We used Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae), a cleptoparasitic mite associated with Osmia bees (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), as a model organism to investigate how temperature affects the development and voltinism of C. krombeini in the eastern United States. The effects of temperature on the stage-specific development of C. krombeini were determined at seven constant temperatures (16.1, 20.2, 24.1, 27.5, 30.0, 32.4 and 37.8°C). Parameters for stage-specific development, such as threshold temperatures and thermal constant, were determined by using empirical models. Results of this study showed that C. krombeini eggs developed successfully to adult at all temperatures tested except 37.8°C. The nonlinear and linear empirical models were applied to describe quantitatively the relationship between temperature and development of each C. krombeini stage. The nonlinear Lactin model estimated optimal temperatures as 31.4, 32.9, 32.6 and 32.5°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. In the linear model, the lower threshold temperatures were estimated to be 9.9, 14.7, 13.0 and 12.4°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. The thermal constant for each stage completion were 61.5, 28.1, 64.8 and 171.1 degree days for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the number of generations (i.e., voltinism) would increase more likely by 1.5 to 2.0 times by the year of 2100 according to simulation. Lastly, the findings herein firstly provided comprehensive data on thermal development of C. krombeini and implications for the management of C. krombeini populations under global warming were discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inversion of geothermal heat flux in a thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model

We address the inverse problem of inferring the basal geothermal heat flux from surface velocity observations using a steady-state thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice flow model. This is a challenging inverse problem since the map from basal heat flux to surface velocity observables is indirect: the heat flux is a boundary condition for the thermal advection–diffusion equation, which couples to the nonlinear Stokes ice flow equations; together they determine the surface ice flow velocity. This multiphysics inverse problem is formulated as a nonlinear least-squares optimization problem with a cost functional that includes the data misfit between surface velocity observations and model predictions. A Tikhonov regularization term is added to render the problem well posed. We derive adjoint-based gradient and Hessian expressions for the resulting partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization problem and propose an inexact Newton method for its solution. As a consequence of the Petrov–Galerkin discretization of the energy equation, we show that discretization and differentiation do not commute; that is, the order in which we discretize the cost functional and differentiate it affects the correctness of the gradient. Using two- and three-dimensional model problems, we study the prospects for and limitations of the inference of the geothermal heat flux field from surface velocity observations. The results show that the reconstruction improves as the noise level in the observations decreases and that short-wavelength variations in the geothermal heat flux are difficult to recover. We analyze the ill-posedness of the inverse problem as a function of the number of observations by examining the spectrum of the Hessian of the cost functional. Motivated by the popularity of operator-split or staggered solvers for forward multiphysics problems – i.e., those that drop two-way coupling terms to yield a one-way coupled forward Jacobian – we study the effect on the inversion of a one-way coupling of the adjoint energy and Stokes equations. Here, we show that taking such a one-way coupled approach for the adjoint equations can lead to an incorrect gradient and premature termination of optimization iterations. This is due to loss of a descent direction stemming from inconsistency of the gradient with the contours of the cost functional. Nevertheless, one may still obtain a reasonable approximate inverse solution particularly if important features of the reconstructed solution emerge early in optimization iterations, before the premature termination.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

On minimum time and fuel orbital transfer.

The problem of a maneuverable spacecraft, with limited thrust capability, moving between two coplanar circular earth orbits is considered. Thrusting is performed in the plane defined by the circles, so that the nonlinear dynamics and subsequent optimization problem are simplified. The approach used in this paper differs from the approaches of Edelbaum and Goetz in that the equations of motion are not linearized before formulating the optimization problem. An averaging approximation is used to determine the structure of the significant co-state variables.

Stuart G. Greenberg↗

Estimation and detection of signals in multiplicative noise

A class of detection-estimation problems on matrix Lie groups is defined in which the observation noise is multiplicative in nature. By examining the differential versions of the hypotheses, which are bilinear in nature, it is possible to derive the relevant likelihood ratio formula and the associated optimal estimation equations for the signal given the observations and the assumption that the signal is present. These estimation equations are of interest in their own right, in that they represent a finite dimensional optimal solution to a nonlinear estimation problem and can be viewed as consisting of a Kalman-Bucy filter along with the on-line computation of the solution of the associated Riccati equation, which is driven by the observations. The usefulness of these results is illustrated via an example concerning the detection of an actuator failure in a rigid body rotational control system.

Willsky, A. S.↗

Management of analytical redundancy in digital flight control systems for aircraft

This paper presents a design method for optimal redundancy management for nonlinear systems with application to highly maneuvering aircraft. The approach taken is based on selecting the failure states to be covered by the system design and constructing a cost function that represents the cost of making an incorrect decision. The decision logic which minimizes the cost requires a bank of extended Kalman filters running in parallel. This produces a severe computational requirement. To reduce this requirement, a suboptimal logic is developed based on using a nonlinear single-stage prediction algorithm in the filters with filter gains and decision logic selected using steady-state results obtained from a linearization of the vehicle and sensor dynamics. The design process is then applied to designing a redundancy management system for the F8-C aircraft. Results indicate that the system is superior in failure detection to a system using the same structure but using a linear single-stage prediction algorithm in the filters.

Montgomery, R. C.↗

Chain pooling to minimize prediction errors in subset regression

The existing theory of subset regression is examined, taking into account optimality criteria, small experiments, nonlinear models, colinearities, and special techniques. Approaches based on chain pooling coupled with principal components regression are discussed, giving attention to a comparison of half-normal plotting with chain pooling, a procedure based on prior ordering, deletion under the F-test, the largest of a set of chi-square variates, and principal components regression and model deletion. The choice of a true (population) model for simulations is considered along with the evaluation of the decision procedure and suitable computer programs.

Holms, A. G.↗

Estimation and detection of signals in multiplicative noise

We define a class of detection-estimation problems on matrix Lie groups in which the observation noise is multiplicative in nature. By examining the differential versions of the hypotheses, which are bilinear, we are able to derive the relevant likelihood ratio formula and the associated optimal estimation equations for the signal given the observations and the assumption that the signal is present. These estimation equations are of interest in their own right, in that they represent a finite-dimensional optimal solution to a nonlinear estimation problem and consist of a Kalman-Bucy filter along with the on-line computation of the solution of the associated Riccati equation, which is driven by the observations. The usefulness of these results is illustrated via an example concerning the detection of an actuator failure in a rigid-body rotational control system.

Willsky, A. S.↗