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NASA NTRS2026

Design and Optimization of an Open Rotor Stage

Open rotor propulsors enable greatly increased effective bypass ratios over current aircraft engines, resulting in significantly improved efficiencies. One of the most promising of these geometries is the “open fan”, which consists of a single rotor followed by a single stator. This configuration will be referred to as an “open rotor stage” for design work at NASA. In this work we consider the multidisciplinary design and optimization of an open rotor stage using a variety of 2D and 3D techniques. The 2D aerodynamic techniques used for design include a 2D Trefftz plane method, axisymmetric throughflow, and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD. Aerodynamic performance is prioritized, while structural requirements are met and some acoustic considerations are included. Between the rotor, stator, and hub profiles, a total of 101 design variables are used. Differences in the process of designing an open rotor stage vs. designing other high-speed propellers are also discussed. The current design, the NASA Optimized Propulsor for Efficiency and Noise (N-OPEN-1), achieves 84.7% net efficiency as predicted by 3D CFD, with further improvements expected to be possible. This design makes effective use of a slower rotor and a less tip-loaded work distribution than typical single-rotation propellers, allowing the stator to produce 14.8% of the thrust. Laminar flow on the blades was responsible for a 1.7% efficiency benefit and warrants further study.

turbomachinery↗

NASA NTRS1974

Skylab M551 Metals Melting Experiment

The objectives of the M551 Metals Melting Experiment are to (a) study behavior of molten metal, (b) characterize metals melted and solidified in the low gravity space environment compared to one-gravity of earth, and (c) determine feasibility of joining metals in space. The experiment used the electron beam (EB) and chamber of the M512 apparatus to make a dwell puddle and a melt in a rotating disc of varying thickness. Hence, the EB performed cut-through, full and partial penetration melts, in addition to a re-solidified button. The three disc materials were aluminum 2219-T87, 304 stainless steel and pure tantalum to provide a wide range of density and melting conditions. Observations to date include (a) the proof that EB welding, cutting and melting can be done successfully in low gravity. Earlier, some welding authorities had postulated that without gravity the EB would force the molten puddle out of contact. However, the experiment proved that surface tension forces predominate. (b) From the view-point of cast-solidification, small, equiaxed grains in Skylab specimens compared to large, elongated grains in ground-based specimens were observed. The former are thought to be associated with constitutional supercooling and nucleation where the latter are associated with dendritic solidification. In further support of the more equiaxed grain growth in Skylab, symmetric sub-grain patterns were frequently observed where there was much less symmetry in ground-based specimens. Further work is being done to explain the differences in solidification.

E C Mckannan↗

NASA NTRS2025

Lyotropic Liquid Crystalline Phase Behavior of Boron Nitride Nanotube Aqueous Dispersions

Boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs) are gaining significant interest due to their outstanding mechanical and thermal properties, as well as their potential to serve as a model nanorod system. Processing BNNT liquid crystalline (LC) dispersions enables precise control over BNNT orientation in macroscopic assemblies, while their low absorption in the visible spectrum facilitates studying LCs at exceptionally high concentrations. Here, we investigate the behavior of BNNTs in aqueous solutions stabilized by the surfactant sodium deoxycholate (SDC), examining the effect of BNNT purity and BNNT−SDC concentrations on lyotropic LC formation. We disperse up to 15wt% BNNT in SDC solutions and use polarized light microscopy to detail the transition from an isotropic state to a biphasic regime, where isotropic and nematic domains coexist due to phase separation, to a single fully nematic phase. Cryogenic electron microscopy provides direct evidence of BNNT alignment within nematic domains. Our results show that enhanced depletion-induced attractions, driven by increased surfactant concentration, lower the threshold concentration of BNNT required to form nematic domains. In contrast, low surfactant concentrations relative to BNNT result in insufficiently coated nanotube surfaces, leading to poor dispersions and BNNT aggregation. Additionally, we fabricate well-aligned BNNT films from aqueous LC dispersions. Our findings advance the understanding of BNNT LCs, offering insight into controlling their orientation and highlighting their potential for high-performance materials.

Joe Khoury↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Laser Forming of Sheet Metal for In-Space Manufacturing Applications

As the in-space economy matures, the migration of typically Earth-bound manufacturing methods, such as metal forming and joining, up to space will be required to meet the increasing demand for refueling and supply depots, habitats, laboratories, lunar surface structures, and sites for deep-space exploration shipbuilding. Only in this way can the magnitude of individual structures begin to exceed what can be launched, deployed, docked, or inflated and allow true economies of scale to be unlocked in space. However, typical terrestrial methods of forming and shaping sheet metal require massive machinery with the ability to deflect reaction forces to a large mass in a fixed reference frame (Earth). To both limit up-mass required for manufacture and to mitigate the issues of reaction forces in the relative reference frames of space, a non-contact, laser-based method of forming metal sheet is proposed. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), in cooperation with DARPA and the University of Florida (UF), have begun investigation of non-contact methods of laser forming sheet metal in thermal vacuum (TVAC) conditions to great success. To date, several grades of aluminum, stainless steel, and titanium coupons have been formed via laser-induced internal stresses in these metals at both ambient atmosphere and vacuum conditions. Temperatures in these tests ranged from -120 to 60 C, and though the total energy required to induce strain does vary with workpiece temperature and environmental pressure, the method remains predictable and controllable for the materials investigated. It is believed that this method will revolutionize manufacturing in-space as it not only continues to build upon the capabilities of the laser (sensing, marking, cutting, drilling, joining, and now forming) as an all-in-one tool, but also reduces the need to counteract forming forces as would be required in mechanical bending. In theory, all required stress to induce bending is generated through thermal gradient and strain within the workpiece, meaning that the need for reaction control and fuel expense on-orbit will be limited. Archimedes once stated, “Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world”. With a laser as our lever and our workpiece its own fulcrum, we can move the world’s manufacturing into space.

Laser↗

NASA NTRS2026

LAI Assimilation Schedules to Constrain Uncertain Cultivars and Soils in CERES-Maize

In anticipation of large-domain crop model applications where precise local configuration and calibration is not possible, we describe benefits and potential drawbacks of employing a crop pest module to achieve leaf area index (LAI) assimilation into a high performing CERES-Maize crop model configuration at a field experiment site in Perry, Iowa. Simulation experiments explore the use of MODIS satellite-derived LAI to constrain and adjust LAI to counter imprecise cultivar and soil configurations often occurring in the absence of high-quality local information. Simulations using single-day, window, and continuous LAI replacement across 5 cultivars and 2 soil calibration approaches for nine corn rotation years from 2004 to 2020 led to different yield outcomes and reverberations throughout the field environment. Evaluating variance and mean bias, results indicate minimal interventions in early vegetative and grain-filling stages were more beneficial than use of continuous LAI adjustments, as they minimized disruptions to the internal resource balances governing plant stresses and grain production. LAI adjustment was particularly helpful in constraining growth related to uncertain thermal unit requirements and leaf tip appearance rates (P1 and PHINT cultivar parameters, respectively). Findings underscore the need to assimilate additional state variables to ensure internal biophysical coherence. This approach shows promise for applications spanning wider domains with prediction time pressure where detailed configuration, more complex assimilation methods, or recalibration of crop model parameters may not be practical.

Phenology↗

NASA NTRS2026

X-Hab 2026: LiDAR-Powered Autonomous Charging Service Capability for Surface Rovers and Systems

This document details the timeline of the LiDAR-Powered Autonomous Charging Service Capability for Surface Rovers and Systems project, initiated by the Fall 2025 semester class and completed by the Spring 2026 semester class. This project focuses on developing a fully autonomous system composed of a mobile surface rover and an induction charging station with a robotic arm, both controlled by their own NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano. Structural improvements to the rover suspension system and body eliminated excessive camber, reduced stress and strain on the plexiglass body, and improved maneuverability and durability of the rover. The charging station robotic arm was fully redesigned to increase reach while minimizing weight and increasing misalignment tolerance during docking on uneven terrain. Electrical system improvements addressed previous torque and power limitations of both the rover and charging station arm. High-torque servo motors were selected based on updated calculations which incorporated terrain slope and Factor of Safety, enabling zero-point turning for the rover and increased payload capacity of the charging station arm. Significant progress was made in autonomy and perception. The rover now employs 3D LiDAR and SLAM mapping for localization, mapping, and path planning. The Battery Monitoring System (BMS) was created to coordinate battery management between the rover and charging station. The BMS provides continuous monitoring of battery state of charge, temperature, current, and will enable the autonomous initiation, execution, and termination of the charging cycle via Bluetooth communication. Testing of the WIBOTIC induction charging system demonstrated reliable power transfer under both aligned and misaligned conditions. This project demonstrated the ability of an autonomously navigating surface rover to independently plan a path to the charging station, dock, and the charging station to autonomously deploy a robotic charging arm and initiate charging of the rover. This work details the progress made to demonstrate the feasibility of autonomous surface rover navigation and recharging systems.

Megan Steele↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Role of Tribology in the Development of an Oil-Free Turbocharger

Gas-turbine-based aeropropulsion engines are technologically mature. Thus, as with any mature technology, revolutionary approaches will be needed to achieve the significant performance gains that will keep the U.S. propulsion manufacturers well ahead of foreign competition. One such approach is the development of oil-free turbomachinery utilizing advanced foil air bearings, seals, and solid lubricants. By eliminating oil-lubricated bearings and seals and supporting an engine rotor on an air film, significant improvements can be realized. For example, the entire oil system including pipes, lines, filters, cooler, and tanks could be removed, thereby saving considerable weight. Since air has no thermal decomposition temperature, engine systems could operate without excessive cooling. Also, since air bearings have no diameter-rpm fatigue limits (D-N limits), engines could be designed to operate at much higher speeds and higher density, which would result in a smaller aeropropulsion package. Because of recent advances in compliant foil air bearings and high temperature solid lubricants, these technologies can be applied to oil-free turbomachinery. In an effort to develop these technologies and to demonstrate a project along the path to an oil-free gas turbine engine, NASA has undertaken the development of an oil-free turbocharger for a heavy duty diesel engine. This turbomachine can reach 120000 rpm at a bearing temperature of 540 C (1000 F) and, in comparison to oil-lubricated bearings, can increase efficiency by 10 to 15 percent because of reduced friction. In addition, because there are no oil lubricants, there are no seal-leakage-induced emissions.

Christopher Dellacorte↗

NASA NTRS2005

Microbiological Characterization and Concerns of the International Space Station Internal Active Thermal Control System

Since January 1999, the chemical the International Space Station Thermal Control System (IATCS) and microbial state of (ISS) Internal Active fluid has been monitored by analysis of samples returned to Earth. Key chemical parameters have changed over time, including a drop in pH from the specified 9.5 +/- 0.5 ta = 58.4, an increase in the level of total inorganic carbon (TIC), total organic carbon (TOC) and dissolved nickel (Ni) in the fluid, and a decrease in the phosphate (PO,) level. In addition, silver (AS) ion levels in the fluid decreased rapidly as Ag deposited on internal metallic surfaces of the system. The lack of available Ag ions coupled with changes in the fluid chemistry has resulted in a favorable environment for microbial growth. Counts of heterotrophic bacteria have increased from less than 10 colony-forming units (CFUs)/l00 mL to l0(exp 6) to l0(exp 7) CFUs/100 mL. The increase of the microbial population is of concern because uncontrolled microbiological growth in the IATCS can contribute to deterioration in the performance of critical components within the system and potentially impact human health if opportunistic pathogens become established and escape into the cabin atmosphere. Micro-organisms can potentially degrade the coolant chemistry; attach to surfaces and form biofilms; lead to biofouling of filters, tubing, and pumps; decrease flow rates; reduce heat transfer; initiate and accelerate corrosion; and enhance mineral scale formation. The micro- biological data from the ISS IATCS fluid, and approaches to addressing the concerns, are summarized in this paper.

Monsi C Roman↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ares I-X Ground Diagnostic Prototype

The automation of pre-launch diagnostics for launch vehicles offers three potential benefits: improving safety, reducing cost, and reducing launch delays. The Ares I-X Ground Diagnostic Prototype demonstrated anomaly detection, fault detection, fault isolation, and diagnostics for the Ares I-X first-stage Thrust Vector Control and for the associated ground hydraulics while the vehicle was in the Vehicle Assembly Building at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and while it was on the launch pad. The prototype combines three existing tools. The first tool, TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System), is a model-based tool from Qualtech Systems Inc. for fault isolation and diagnostics. The second tool, SHINE (Spacecraft Health Inference Engine), is a rule-based expert system that was developed at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. We developed SHINE rules for fault detection and mode identification, and used the outputs of SHINE as inputs to TEAMS. The third tool, IMS (Inductive Monitoring System), is an anomaly detection tool that was developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The three tools were integrated and deployed to KSC, where they were interfaced with live data. This paper describes how the prototype performed during the period of time before the launch, including accuracy and computer resource usage. The paper concludes with some of the lessons that we learned from the experience of developing and deploying the prototype.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRS2026

The Future of in-Situ Sequencing-Based Microbial Monitoring: Development of a Shelf-Stable Method for Artemis and Beyond

Microbial monitoring onboard the International Space Station (ISS) is essential for assessing the efficiency of the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) and providing insight into potential risk to both crew and spacecraft. Historically, this monitoring required the need to culture organisms onboard, return these cultures to Earth, and then complete the identifications, a process that would take months. Over the past decade, and through numerous payloads, advances in molecular biology have enabled in-flight microbial identifications using nanopore sequencing. The swab-to-sequencer method resulting from these efforts was transitioned from research to operations for microbial monitoring under the Crew Health Care Systems (CHeCS) BioMole. Collectively, these accomplishments have propelled the swab-to-sequencer method to be selected as the Microbial Surface Monitor (MSM) for Gateway, as well as a payload on Artemis IV. However, the lack of cold stowage availability for Artemis requires modifications to the entire method due to the thermal instability of the reagents required for sample preparation. To achieve this, new development, optimization, and validations were undertaken. Key considerations included enzyme concentration, buffer compatibility, and equal or enhanced sensitivity and specificity. At each step, thorough side-by-side comparisons with the current ISS method were performed. The development of a robust shelf-stable method will ensure continued sequencing-based microbial monitoring for Artemis and beyond, providing data in near real-time, enhancing risk response time, and yielding clear insight into the microbiome of spacecraft.

Christian G Mena↗

NASA NTRS2026

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Capability Maturity Levels for Ecosystems Enabling Digital Transformation

Digital engineering (DE) and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) are widely recognized as critical enablers of faster, more affordable, and more reliable aerospace systems. However, many organizations have struggled to realize the promised return on investment (ROI) from digital initiatives. A primary reason is the absence of a shared, decision-focused framework that distinguishes simple digitization of existing workflows from true digital transformation that fundamentally changes how engineering decisions are made. This paper introduces an ICME capability maturity framework that fills this gap. The framework defines six cumulative ICME capability maturity levels (CMLs), explicitly tied to decision authority, engineering integration, optimization, and uncertainty management across material, process, structure, and performance scales. It is designed to complement established readiness metrics such as technology readiness levels (TRLs), manufacturing readiness levels (MRLs), and integration readiness levels (IRLs), by addressing a missing dimension: the conditions required for model-informed decision authority across scales. A unifying figure and capability table illustrate the six-level ICME Capability Maturity Framework, showing how organizations progress from digitization—with limited or negative ROI—to true digital transformation, where ICME-enabled workflows deliver measurable improvements in decision quality, cycle time, risk reduction, and reuse. The framework is intended for both technical practitioners and executive leadership, providing a common language to assess current state, guide roadmaps, align software ecosystem investments, and set realistic expectations for digital transformation outcomes. A regulatory-relevant statement clarifying the relationship between ICME capability and existing certification frameworks is provided.

ICME↗

NASA NTRS1993

Prediction of prompt NO(x) in hydrocarbon air flames

The gas turbine industry is directing particular attention to very low NOx combustors, whether for aircraft or land based CCGT systems. These low NOx combustors frequently use liquid fuels or natural gas burning under very lean premixed conditions with air or under rich-lean conditions, although only the first case is studied here. In land based systems, diluted steam or nitrogen are sometimes injected into the combustion chambers to reduce flame temperature. The NOx emissions from such systems are the product of three chemical mechanisms which are interrelated: the hydrocarbon prompt NO, the thermal NO (extended Zeldovich mechanism), and the nitrous oxide route to NO. Formation of NO2 from NO also occurs, as well as emission of carbon monoxide and unburnt hydrocarbons. When the fuel-oxidant proportion decreases towards leaner conditions, flame temperatures are lowered, resulting in the total NO being reduced and the thermal-NO contribution greatly diminished to the benefit of the remaining two mechanisms of NO formation. While knowledge of the elementary reactions and their chemical kinetics concerning methane and simple hydrocarbons combustion has existed for a number of years, its use for computer modeling is limited to simple flow dynamics configurations. Nevertheless, understanding of such combusting flows under a wide range of experimental conditions allows for analogies or speculations with more complex actual systems. Such understanding can be achieved by means of one dimensional laminar premixed flame modeling, with a full chemical mechanism which incorporates the three routes of NO formation. Complementary to this understanding is the modeling of the actual combustion system using a full description of the fluid dynamics coupled with a reduced chemical scheme, which is then compared against the first model. The objective of this investigation is to evaluate the relative importance of the three mechanisms of NO formation in lean premixed methane-air combustion with increasing pressure using the one dimensional plug flow package PREMIX, and to test the validity of a three dimensional model with a global chemical mechanism against the one dimensional model in the atmospheric pressure case. Methane is chosen because it is the only mechanism which is reasonably well known and is a good guide to the behavior of other hydrocarbons. The mixture ratio chosen is richer than that in lean gas turbines, but the combustion of this mixture with the low preheat gives realistic gas turbine final flame temperatures. Conditions of NO2 formation are also analyzed in the one dimensional model and results extrapolated to the case of gas turbines.

Valerie Dupont↗

NASA NTRS1993

A SIMULINK Environment for Flight Dynamics and Control Analysis - Application to the DHC-2 'Beaver', Part 1. Implementation of a Model Library in SIMULINK

The design of advanced Automatic Aircraft Control Systems (AACS's) can be improved upon considerably if the designer can access all models and tools required for control system design and analysis through a graphical user-interface, from within one software environment. This MSc-thesis presents the first step in the development of such an environment, which is currently being done at the Section for Stability and Control of Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering. The environment is implemented within the commercially available software package MATLAB/SIMULINK. The report consists of two parts. Part I gives a detailed description of the AACS design environment. The heart of this environment is formed by the SIMULINK implementation of a nonlinear aircraft model in block-diagram format. The model has been worked out for the old laboratory aircraft of the Faculty, the De Havilland DHC-2 'Beaver', but due to its modular structure, it can easily be adapted for other aircraft. Part I also describes MATLAB programs which can be applied for finding steady-state trimmed-flight conditions and for linearization of the aircraft model, and it shows how the built-in simulation routines of SIMULINK have been used for open-loop analysis of the aircraft dynamics. Apart from the implementation of the models and tools, a thorough treatment of the theoretical backgrounds is presented. Part II of this report presents a part of an autopilot design process for the 'Beaver' aircraft, which clearly demonstrates the power and flexibility of the AACS design environment from part I. Evaluations of all longitudinal and lateral control laws by means of nonlinear simulations are treated in detail. The AACS design environment from part I proved to be a very useful tool for designing the control laws of the 'Beaver' autopilot within a very tight time-schedule. The autopilot design process itself will be used as a guideline for future AACS research at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering. Flight tests of the 'Beaver' autopilot, done after evaluating the control laws in the SIMULINK package, proved to be quite successful. In the future, the AACS design package will evolve into a standardized, integrated design environment which can be applied to virtually any type of aircraft. The AACS design cycle will be shortened further by developing tools for automatically porting control laws from the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment to a piloted real-time flight simulator and the Flight Control Computers of the aircraft.

Aircraft Modelling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerothermal Shape Optimization of Actively-Cooled Battery Packs Using Conjugate Heat Transfer

Thermal management for battery is important for electric aircraft because battery temperature is critically important to vehicle safety, and it also has direct impact on the efficiency of the battery system. Because ambient air is a readily available resource for aircraft, this paper considers an active cooling concept with forced convection of ambient air through the battery pack. Conjugate heat transfer analysis is used to solve the coupled aero-thermal problem, which consists of a finite-volume computational fluid dynamics solver for the fluid domain, and a conduction heat transfer solver for the solid domain. A mixed Neumann and Dirichlet boundary condition is developed for the fluid-solid interface, which allows the solid domain to completely submerge in the fluid domain. A gradient-based optimization method is adopted, and the discrete adjoint approach implemented in DAFoam is used to efficiently compute the gradients. The aero-thermal coupling for primal analysis and gradient computation is handled using the OpenMDAO-based MPhys framework. A constant heat source is prescribed for the battery cells, and the battery shape (design variable) is optimized to minimize cooling pump power and battery weight (composite objective function) while keeping the battery temperature below a threshold (constraint). The optimized design achieves a 44.6% and 1.5% reduction in the cooling pump power and battery weight, respectively, and the maximal temperature constraint is satisfied. This work has the potential to reduce battery-pack weight, improve performance, and reduce the weight of thermal management systems for electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft.

heat transfer↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerothermal Shape Optimization of Actively-Cooled Battery Packs using Conjugate Heat Transfer

thermal management↗

NASA NTRS2026

Assessment of Near-Angle Scatter on Exo-Earth Coronagraphy

Near-Angle Scatter (NAS) of the host star’s light into the coronagraph dark hole may limit the ability of a potential Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) to detect and characterize an Earth-like planet around a Sun-like star. This paper summarizes a 5-year investigation of the impact of NAS on high-contrast coronagraphy. Science requirements were flowed down to a draft flux ratio noise ratio (FRN) error budget with allocations for NAS. The modeled sources of NAS include correlated (low and mid-spatial) surface structure, uncorrelated surface microroughness and coating structure, particulate contamination, micrometeoroid impacts and polarization leakage. The paper develops specifications for these sources of scattered light that meet their FRN error budget allocations, distinguishing between scatter that can and cannot be modulated. The development process utilizes an analytical expression that predicts scatter throughput into the dark hole based on BRDF/BSDF. Using this relationship, Photon Engineering performed a FRED® straylight analysis of the HWO EAC-1 (Exploratory Analytical Case #1) coronagraph to parametrically study predicted scattered light contrast in the dark hole. The model revealed that primary mirror microroughness or contamination is not a significant source of scattered light; the most critical surfaces are the smallest and those located closest to the coronagraph focal plane mask. The assessment found that uncorrelated microstructure, contamination, and micrometeoroid impacts require more investigation and potential significant sources of unmodulated scattered light, and highlights that slow thermal wavefront drift is an order of magnitude more impactful than fast mechanical jitter.

coronagraphy↗

NASA NTRS2026

The Canadian Galactic Emission Mapper: A New 8-10 GHz Telescope To Map the Polarization of the Northern Sky

The Canadian Galactic Emission Mapper (CGEM) radio telescope is mapping polarized Galactic foregrounds from 8-10 GHz to aid in the search for B-modes in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Here we describe the design and early on-sky characterization of the CGEM optics. CGEM employs an on-axis, hat feed optical design that is a body of revolution (BOR) and exhibits excellent intrinsic polarization purity. We describe how we have optimized the optics with a novel framework that can directly minimize simulated intensity to polarized intensity (T → P) leakage in angular power spectrum space. The optimized optics exhibit simulated T → P leakage that is orders of magnitude below anticipated CℓBB for r = 10 −3 when scaled from 8-10 GHz to the CMB observing window near 95 GHz. We go on to describe the mechanical design of the optics, including a novel secondary mirror support made from Astroquartz composite that has low loss, low dielectric constant, and preserves the BOR symmetry of the optics. We then showcase the early on-sky performance of the optics with observations of the Sun and satellites, which probe the beam to 40dB down from the peak. A beam model for the deployed CGEM optics based on electromagnetic simulations is in excellent agreement with the on-sky data.

cosmic microwave background↗

NASA NTRS2026

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗