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Multi-Source Machine Learning and Thermoplastics Enhanced Aerostructure Manufacturing (mTEAM)

RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC), together with Collins Aerospace (Collins) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed an Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Machine Learning (ML) guided solution to advance the manufacturing and assembly of high performance and lightweight thermoplastic composite (TPC) aerospace products. The solution aims to lower risk, cost and lead time for induction heating based welding and consolidation processes for TPC structure. The cost and lead time of part and material specific process development for induction welding (IW) and induction consolidation will be reduced by replacing traditional empirical methods with optimization methods that merge AI/ML and physics-based process simulations and process experiments with sensing and controls. TPC-IW process development is empirical in nature, and uncertainties in material & process behavior exist near & far from the induction coil. Physics-based simulations can be leveraged directly for process optimization but can be too computationally expensive to run in high fidelity and real time to do robust process optimization. The key impact of successful TPC induction consolidation and welding is cost & lead time reduction for part & material specific consolidation and welding recipes. This is an enabler for more rapid deployment of TPC structures via joining assembly, which can reduce energy & cost intensive usage of autoclaves & ovens. The solution aimed to advance the U.S. Department of Energy’s interests in using thermoplastics and automation in composite manufacturing for improvement of products for existing markets via increased production speeds, reduced costs, and lowered use of energy. Welded TPC structures can offer significant weight & energy savings for high-value commercial aerospace & industrial applications compared to metal & thermoset composite structures assembled by mechanical fastening and/or adhesive bonding. The project was organized into two Budget Periods. Budget Period 1 (BP1) was 15 months and its goal was to perform ML process optimization framework development & deployment on lab-coupon aerostructure components. A Go/No-Go Review was performed at the end of BP1 to verify fulfilment of key tasks & milestones to justify a Go Decision to move into the next Budget Period. Budget Period 2 (BP2) was 12 months and its goal was the deployment of the ML framework for ML process optimization of pilot industrial scale aerostructure components. The overall project aim was to develop & demonstrate ML-enhanced modeling framework that learns process-property mapping from multiple data sources at different fidelities. During BP1, the team accomplished key tasks & milestones to demonstrate the concept of multi-source ML for TPC aerostructure consolidation and assembly. First, the team completed documentation of induction based TPC heating requirements including baseline metrics to compare measured results against. Next the team completed demonstration of data generation from physics-based simulations for ML surrogate model generation and demonstrated the integration of physics-based simulation data into multi-source AI/ML algorithms. In parallel, the team established the lab-coupon scale induction welding system and completed a process to label and reduce generated data from physics-based simulation and experiments for ML surrogate models to enable multi-source ML model training & testing. To complete BP1, the team integrated physics-based simulation data and experimental data into multi-source ML algorithms. This was based on the team completing ML deployment of the induction welding on a lab system at RTRC and AI/ML deployment on existing induction welding line at Collins. ORNL visited both Collins and RTRC sites to witness the TPC induction welding process. Then, ORNL designed and constructed a new version of their vision-based sensing system better adapted to acquire process signals of the TPC induction welding process for process anomaly and defect detection. In BP2, the team accomplished key tasks & milestones to scale up multi-source ML for TPC aerostructure consolidation and assembly from the lab-coupon scale to the pilot-industrial scale. In BP2, the team demonstrated real time anomaly & defect detection via experiments performed by ORNL & RTRC. The team completed ML-optimization heating trials for TPC induction consolidation at Collins, and the team confirmed pilot industrial scale experimental data from Collins was compatible with the developed ML pipeline from RTRC. The team completed sub-element scale ML process optimization demonstration at RTRC, where the team leveraged RTRC’s robotic TPC welding setup to de-risk the ML process optimization by performing ML analysis of recorded temperatures to account for complex part features. Then, the team applied its ML-derived control strategies and ML process optimization framework at Collins to the pilot-industrial scale on a demo skin-stiffener part representative of a nacelle aerostructure fan cowl section. The key innovation is the AI/ML framework enabling effective process development of high performance, lightweight, energy efficient TPCs for composite aircraft structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A network approach for multiscale catchment classification using traits

Abstract. The classification of river catchments into groups with similar biophysical characteristics is useful to understand and predict their hydrological behavior. The increasing availability of remote sensing and other large-scale geospatial datasets has enabled the use of advanced data-driven approaches to classify catchments using traits such as topography, geology, climate, land cover, land use, and human influence. Unsupervised clustering algorithms based on the Euclidean distance are commonly used for trait-based classification but are not suitable for highly dimensional data. In this study we present a new network-based method for multi-scale catchment classification, which can be applied to large datasets and used to determine the traits associated with different catchment groups. In this framework, two networks are analyzed in parallel: the first being where the nodes are traits and the second being where the nodes are catchments. In both cases, edges represent pairwise similarity, and a network cluster detection algorithm is used for the classification. The trait network is used to investigate redundancy in the trait data and to condense this information into a small number of interpretable categories. The catchments network is used to classify the catchments into clusters and to identify representative catchments for the different groups using the degree centrality metric. We apply this method to classify 9067 river catchments across the contiguous United States at both regional and continental scales using 274 non-categorical traits. At the continental scale, we identify 25 interpretable trait categories and 34 catchment clusters of sizes greater than 50. We find that catchments with similar trait categories are typically located in the same region, with different spatial patterns emerging among clusters dominated by natural and anthropogenic traits. We also find that the catchment clusters exhibit distinct hydrological behavior based on an analysis of streamflow indices. This network approach provides several advantages over traditional means of classification, including better separation of clusters, the use of alternate similarity metrics that are more suitable for highly dimensional data, and reducing redundancy in the trait information. The paired catchment–trait networks enable analysis of hydrological behavior using the dominant trait categories for each catchment cluster. The approach can be used at multiple spatial scales since the network topologies adjust automatically to reflect the trait patterns at the scale of investigation. Finally, the representative catchments identified as hub nodes in the network can be used to guide transferable observational and modeling strategies. The method is broadly applicable beyond hydrology for classification of other complex systems that utilize different types of trait datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Human behavior determinants of exposure to Anopheles vectors of malaria in Sumba, Indonesia

Malaria vector control interventions in Sumba, Indonesia, have not been able to eliminate malaria. Human drivers of exposure to Anopheles bites were investigated as part of a larger clinical trial evaluating the impact of a spatial repellent product on malaria incidence. Human behavioral observations (HBOs) evaluating temporal and spatial presence, sleeping behaviors, and insecticide treated net (ITN) use, were collected parallel to entomological collections—indoor and outdoor human landing catches (HLCs), and house hold surveys. Data demonstrates that mosquito access to humans, enabled by structurally open houses, is evident by the similar entomological landing rates both inside and outside households. The presence of animals inside houses was associated with increased mosquito entry–however, the number of humans present inside houses was not related to increased mosquito landing. Analyzing mosquito landing rates with human behavior data enables the spatial and temporal estimation of exposure to Anopheles bites, accounting for intervention (ITN) presence and usage. Human behavior adjusted exposure to Anopheles bites was found to be highest in the early in the evening, but continued at lower levels throughout the night. Over the night, most exposure (53%) occurred when people were indoors and not under the protection of nets (asleep or awake) followed by exposure outside (44%). Characterized gaps in protection are outdoor exposure as well as exposure indoors–when awake, and when asleep and not using ITNs. Interestingly, in the primary trial, even though there was not a significant impact of the spatial repellent on vector biting rates by themselves (16%), when factoring in human behavior, there was approximately 28% less exposure in the intervention arm than in the placebo arm. The treated arm had less human behavior adjusted bites in all spaces evaluated though there was proportionally higher exposure indoors. This analysis points to the importance of using HBOs both towards understanding gaps in protection as well as how interventions are evaluated. To mitigate ongoing transmission, understanding context specific spatial and temporal exposure based on the interactions of vectors, humans and interventions would be vital for a directed evidence-based control or elimination strategy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Introducing Nonstructural Ligands to Zirconia-like Metal–Organic Framework Nodes To Tune the Activity of Node-Supported Nickel Catalysts for Ethylene Hydrogenation [Introducing Nonstructural Ligands to Zirconia-like MOF Nodes To Tune the Activity of Node-Supported Nickel Catalysts for Ethylene Hydrogenation]

Previous work has shown that introduction of hexafluoroacetylacetone (Facac) units as nonstructural ligands for the zirconia-like nodes of the eight-connected metal-organic framework (MOF), NU-1000, greatly alters the selectivity of node-supported oxy-nickel clusters for ethylene dimerization vs oligomerization. Here we i explore a related concept: tuning of support/catalyst interactions, and therefore, catalyst activity, via parallel installation of organic modifiers on the support itself. As modifiers we focused on para-substituted benzoates (R-BA – ; R = -NH 2 , -OCH 3 , -CH 3 , -H, -F, and -NO 2 ) where the substituents were chosen to present similar steric demand, but varying electron-donating or electron-withdrawing properties. R-benzoate-engendered shifts in the node-based aqua O-H stretching frequency for NU-1000, as measured by DRIFTS (diffuse-reflectance infrared Fourier-transform spectroscopy), together with systematic shifts in Ni 2p peak energies, as measured by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, show that the electronic properties of the support can be modulated. The vibrational and electronic peak shifts correlate with the putative electron-withdrawing vs electron-donating strength of the para-substituted benzoate modifiers. Subsequent installation of node-supported, oxy-Ni(II) clusters for ethylene hydrogenation yield a compelling correlation between log (catalyst turnover frequency) and the electron donating or withdrawing character of the substituent of the benzoate units. Single crystal X-ray diffraction measurements reveal that each organic modifier makes use of only one of two available carboxylate oxygens to accomplish grafting. The remaining oxygen atom is, in principle, well positioned to coordinate directly to an installed Ni(II) ion. We postulate that the unanticipated direct coordination of the catalyst by the node-modifier (rather than indirect modifier-based tuning of support(node)/catalyst electronic interactions) is the primary source of the observed systematic tuning of hydrogenation activity. Here we suggest, however, that regardless of mechanism for communication with active-sites of MOF-supported catalysts, intentional elaboration of nodes via grafted, nonstructural organic species could prove to be a valuable general strategy for fine-tuning supported-catalyst activity and/or selectivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Research Reactors Division Infrastructure Investment Plan for the High Flux Isotope Reactor

The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a unique national asset. Operational for nearly 60 years, continued investment into the aging infrastructure is necessary to ensure operation for another 6 decades. Additionally, growing missions require HFIR as well as important upgrades. Consequently, carefully integrated planning is required to ensure that infrastructure investments are timely executed to ensure long-term, reliable operation of HFIR. Concerns about challenges to the operational reliability of HFIR resulted in a recommendation from the 2023 Operations Review by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Basic Energy Sciences that a HFIR management strategy be developed to address the infrastructure needs. This report defines the investment needs, which are evolving as new upgrade efforts are better defined. HFIR is part of the three-source strategy within the Neutron Sciences Directorate (NScD) and contributes to the five strategic science areas outlined in the NScD 10 Year Strategic Science Plan: quantum materials, soft matter, materials and engineering, chemistry, and biosciences. Fundamental to this strategy are three core values: operational excellence, responsible stewardship, and servant leadership. These values guide our mission of safe and reliable operation of the reactor and require a strong and just nuclear safety culture, a solemn respect for responsible care of the facility, good workforce development, robust procedures and processes, an effective communication strategy, world-class asset management, a determined customer focus, and a commitment to protecting the environment, the safety and health of the public and our people, and the quality of work performed within our facility. These principles are all essential to operate HFIR at a world-class level. The Research Reactors Division (RRD) will lead a new era of neutron science and isotope production at HFIR through responsible and purposeful leadership and unwavering support of the science community. The approach outlined in this plan highlights the direction leadership is taking to ensure that HFIR is ready to support the science challenges and national needs of the future and that the United States maintains world leadership in neutron sciences. The plan is in alignment with the DOE’s desire to continue operating HFIR and with the NScD strategic science goals for the future. HFIR is an aging facility with numerous infrastructure challenges and needs. It has an aging workforce in relation to the general population of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), with many expected retirements over the next 5–10 years. With an increase in work scope caused by changing national priorities and science goals, several critical hires have been identified. To manage HFIR’s infrastructure needs, a prioritized list of equipment upgrades has been identified along with an analysis of future staffing requirements. A desire to operate HFIR at eight cycles per year will necessarily require some significant changes to procedures and processes currently in place as well as targeted staffing additions. Many of the equipment upgrades identified in this plan will significantly increase the reliability of the plant, thus contributing to the effort to reach the goal of safely operating eight cycles per year. A plan to attain eight-cycle operation is being prepared in parallel with the activities identified in this plan, although the actions identified to satisfy both plans will overlap. This plan identifies new infrastructure needs—for both plant equipment and staffing—thus necessitating formulation of future budget requests to fund the increased work scope and improvement activities. Some activities are currently being scheduled with the expectation that funding will be received. Any delays to funding or reductions of funding from the identified cost estimations will directly and negatively affect the plan’s implementation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Accurate Determination of the Values of Fundamental Physical Constants: The Basis of the New “Quantum” SI Units

The metric system appeared as the system of units designed for macroscopic (laboratory scale) measurements. The progress in accurate determination of the values of quantum constants (such as the Planck constant) in SI units shows that the capabilities in high-precision measurement of microscopic and macroscopic quantities in terms of the same units have increased substantially recently. At the same time, relative microscopic measurements (for example, the comparison of atomic transition frequencies or atomic masses) are often much more accurate than relative measurements of macroscopic quantities. This is the basis for the strategy to define units in microscopic phenomena and then use them on the laboratory scale, which plays a crucial role in practical methodological applications determined by everyday life and technologies. The international CODATA task group on fundamental constants regularly performs an overall analysis of the precision world data (the so-called Adjustment of the Fundamental Constants ) and publishes their recommended values. The most recent evaluation was based on the data published by the end of 2014; here, we review the corresponding data and results. The accuracy in determination of the Boltzmann constant has increased, the consistency of the data on determination of the Planck constant has improved; it is these two dimensional constants that will be used in near future as the basis for the new definition of the kelvin and kilogram, respectively. The contradictions in determination of the Rydberg constant and the proton charge radius remain. The accuracy of determination of the fine structure constant and relative atomic weight of the electron has improved. Overall, we give a detailed review of the state of the art in precision determination of the values of fundamental constants. The mathematical procedure of the Adjustment, the new data and results are considered in detail. The limitations due to macroscopic properties of material standards (such as the International prototype of the kilogram) and the isotopic composition of substances involved in precision studies in general (as standard measures for the triple point of water) and, in particular, in the determination of the fundamental constants are discussed. The perspectives of the introduction of the new quantum units, which will be free from the mentioned problems, are considered. Many physicists feel no sympathy for the International system of units (SI), believing that it does not properly reflect the character of physical laws. In fact, there are three parallel systems, namely the systems of quantities, system of their units and the related standards. The definition of the units, in particular, the SI units, above all, reflects our ability to perform precision measurements of physical values under certain conditions, in particular, to create appropriate standards. This requirement is not related to the beauty of fundamental laws of nature. More accurate determination of the fundamental constants is one of the areas where we accumulate such experience.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Cardinal: A Lower Length-scale Simulator for Fluoride Cooled High Temperature Reactors

The new DOE-NE “Center of Excellence for Thermal-fluids applications in Nuclear Energy” inaugurated in April 2018 considers and researches novel new solution strategies for historically challenging flow issues that still plague the current fleet of deployed Light Water Reactor (LWR) nuclear reactors as well as predicting various fluid flow and fluid related issues with advanced reactor technologies. Our advanced thermal-fluids research and development approach synergistically combines three natural, though overlapping, length and time scales in a hierarchal multi-scale approach to avoid the temptation and pitfalls of attempting to develop a single “solve all” algorithm for physical fluid flow problems that will span 109 in spatial and temporal scales. The demonstrate the multi-scale philosophy of the center we focus first on Fluoride Cooled High Temperature Reactors (FHRs), and in particular on the Berkeley’s PB-FHR design Mark-I design. The Fluoride salt cooled High temperature Reactor (FHR) is a class of advanced nuclear reactors that combine the robust coated particle fuel form from high temperature gas cooled reactors, direct reactor auxiliary cooling system (DRACS) passive decay removal of liquid metal fast reactors, and the transparent, high volumetric heat capacitance liquid fluoride salt working fluids - Flibe - from molten salt reactors. This combination of fuel and coolant enables FHRs to operate in a high-temperature low-pressure design space that has beneficial safety and economic implications. The PB-FHR reactor relies on a pebble bed approach and pebble bed reactors are in a sense the poster child for multiscale analysis. The lower length-scale simulator for pebble reactor cores comprises three physics: neutronics (OpenMC), thermal-fluids (Nek5000) and fuel performance (BISON). As part of center of excellence ongoing research efforts we have developed “Cardinal”, a new tool platform for lower length-scale simulation. Cardinal tightly couples all three physics and leverages advances in MOOSE such as the MultiApp system and the concept of MOOSE-wrapped Apps. Moreover it is designed from the ground-up to scale on massively parallel architectures and perform well on world-class super-computing architectures. In this report we describe the design of Cardinal and present a demo of the application of Cardinal to an FHR.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Modular Energy Storage System for Alternative Energy Vehicles

An electrical vehicle environment was established to promote research and technology development in the area of high power energy management. The project incorporates a topology that permits parallel development of an alternative energy delivery system and an energy storage system. The objective of the project is to develop technologies, specifically power electronics, energy storage electronics and controls that provide efficient and effective energy management between electrically powered devices in alternative energy vehicles plugin electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, range extended vehicles, and hydrogen-based fuel cell vehicles. In order to meet the project objectives, the Vehicle Energy Management System (VEMS) was defined and subsystem requirements were obtained. Afterwards, power electronics, energy storage electronics and controls were designed. Finally, these subsystems were built, tested individually, and integrated into an electric vehicle system to evaluate and optimize the subsystems performance. Phase 1 of the program established the fundamental test bed to support development of an electrical environment ideal for fuel cell application and the mitigation of many shortcomings of current fuel cell technology. Phase 2, continued development from Phase 1, focusing on implementing subsystem requirements, design and construction of the energy management subsystem, and the integration of this subsystem into the surrogate electric vehicle. Phase 2 also required the development of an Alternative Energy System (AES) capable of emulating electrical characteristics of fuel cells, battery, gen set, etc. Under the scope of the project, a boost converter that couples the alternate energy delivery system to the energy storage system was developed, constructed and tested. Modeling tools were utilized during the design process to optimize both component and system design. This model driven design process enabled an iterative process to track and evaluate the impact of design alternatives and the impact of changes. Refinement of models was accomplished through correlation studies to measured data obtained from functioning hardware. Specifically, correlation and characterization of the boost converter resulted in a model that was effectively used to determine overall VEMS performance. The successful development of the boost converter can be attributed to utilization of previously proven technologies and adapting to meet the VEMS requirements. This program provided significant improvement in development time of various generations of boost converters. The software strategies and testing results support the development of current energy management systems and directly contribute to the future of similar, commercial products at Magna E-Car Systems. Because of this development project, Magna E-Car Systems is able to offer automotive customers a boost converter system with reduced time to market and decreased product cost, thus transferring the cost and timing benefits to the end use consumer.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimal Polynomial Smoothers and One‐Sided V‐Cycles for Poisson Problems

The solution to the Poisson equation arising from the spectral element discretization of the incompressible Navier‐Stokes equations needs robust preconditioning strategies. One such strategy is multigrid. To realize the potential of multigrid methods, effective smoothing strategies are needed. Chebyshev polynomial smoothers, in conjunction with pointwise Jacobi or additive Schwarz methods (ASMs), prove to be an effective smoother. Other polynomial smoothers, however, may provide superior convergence to the multigrid preconditioner. The authors compare the standard Chebyshev polynomial smoothers to both the novel fourth‐kind Chebyshev polynomial smoothers proposed by Lottes as well as smoothers based on the polynomial of best uniform approximation to as proposed by Kraus, Vassilevski, and Zikatanov. At the cost of symmetry, further improvements may be made. For example, a order polynomial smoother on both sides of the V‐cycle may be substituted with an order polynomial smoother on one side at no additional cost. The choice of omitting the postsmoother in favor of higher‐order polynomial presmoothing is advantageous in cases where the multigrid approximation property constant is large. The authors consider a 2D model problem based on finite differences to motivate the choice of polynomial smoother, order, and whether to apply postsmoothing for the target application of high‐order ‐geometric multigrid methods for GPU architectures. Results from both domains demonstrate the substantial improvement of these approaches over the standard Chebyshev polynomial smoother with a symmetric V‐cycle.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Phase II Nevada Water Resources Data, Modeling, and Visualization (DMV) Center (Final Report)

Water is unquestionably a critical resource throughout the United States. In the semi-arid west -- an area stressed by increase in human population and sprawl of the built environment -- water is the most important limiting resource. Crucially, science must understand factors that affect availability and distribution of water. To sustain growing consumptive demand, science needs to translate understanding into reliable and robust predictions of availability under weather conditions that could be average but might be extreme. These predictions are needed to support current and long-term planning. Similar to the role of weather forecast and climate prediction, water prediction over short and long temporal scales can contribute to resource strategy, governmental policy and municipal infrastructure decisions, which are arguably tied to the natural variability and unnatural change to climate. Change in seasonal and annual temperature, precipitation, snowmelt, and runoff affect the distribution of water over large temporal and spatial scales, which impact the risk of flooding and the groundwater recharge. Anthropogenic influences and impacts increase the complexity and urgency of the challenge. The goal of this project has been to develop a decision support framework of data acquisition, digital modeling, and 3D visualization. This integrated framework consists of tools for compiling, discovering and projecting our understanding of processes that control the availability and distribution of water. The framework is intended to support the analysis of the complex interactions between processes that affect water supply, from controlled availability to either scarcity or deluge. The developed framework enables DRI to promote excellence in water resource management, particularly within the Lake Tahoe basin. In principle, this framework could be replicated for other watersheds throughout the United States. Phase II of this project builds upon the research conducted during Phase I, in which the hydrologic framework was investigated and the development initiated. Phase II concentrates on practical implementation of the earlier work but emphasizes applications to the hydrology of the Lake Tahoe basin. Phase 1 efforts have been refined and extended by creating a toolset for geographic information systems (GIS) that is usable for disparate types of geospatial and geo-referenced data. The toolset is intended to serve multiple users for a variety of applications. The web portal for internet access to hydrologic and remotely sensed product data, prototyped in Phase I, has been significantly enhanced. The portal provides high performance access to LANDSAT-derived data using techniques developed during the course of the project. The portal is interactive, and supports the geo-referenced display of hydrologic information derived from remotely sensed data, such as various vegetative indices used to calculate water consumption. The platform can serve both internal and external constituencies using inter-operating infrastructure that spans both sides of the DRI firewall. The platform is intended grow its supported data assets and to serve as a template for replication to other geographic areas. An unanticipated development during the project was the use of ArcGIS software on a new computer system, called the IBM PureSytems, and the parallel use of the systems for faster, more efficient image processing. Additional data, independent of the portal, was collected within the Sagehen basin and provides detailed information regarding the processes that control hydrologic responses within mountain watersheds. The newly collected data include elevation, evapotranspiration, energy balance and remotely sensed snow-pack data. A Lake Tahoe basin hydrologic model has been developed, in part to help predict the hydrologic impacts of climate change. The model couples both the surface and subsurface hydrology, with the two components having been independently calibrated. Results from the coupled simulations involving both surface water and groundwater processes show that it is possible to fairly accurately simulate lake effects and water budget variables over a wide range of dry and wet cycles in the historical record. The Lake Tahoe basin is representative of the hydrology, topography and climate throughout the Sierra Nevada Range, and the entire model development is prototypical of the efforts required to replicate the decision support framework to other locales. The Lake Tahoe model in particular, could allow water managers to evaluate more accurately components of the water budget (ET, runoff, groundwater, etc) and to answer important questions regarding water resources in northern Nevada. This report discusses the geographic scale and the hydrologic complexity of the calibrated model developed as part of this project, as well as simulation results for historical and future climate projects To enable human-driven data exploration and discovery, de novo software for a globalized rendering module that extends the capability of our evolving custom visualization engine from Phase I (called SMEngine) has been developed. The new rendering component, called Horizon, supports terrain rendering capable of displaying and interrogating both remotely sensed and modeled data. The development of Horizon necessitated adaptation of the visualization engine to allow extensible integration of components such as the global rendering module and support for associated features. The resulting software is general in its GIS capability, but a specific Lake Tahoe visualization application suitable for immersive decision support in the DRIVE6 virtual reality facility has been developed. During the development, various features to enhance the value of the visualization experience were explored, including the use of hyperspectral image overlays. An over-arching goal of the visualization aspect of the project has been to develop and demonstrate the CAVE (CAVE Automatic Virtual Environment) as a practical tool for hydrologic research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design, Deployment, and Characterization of the World’s First Flexible Large Power Transformer

GE Research and its partner Prolec GE have designed, built and deployed in the field the world’s first flexible power transformer. The flexible power transformer is a transmission class 3-phase autotransformer configurable in impedance and in voltage which allows it to serve as a universal spare for multiple units in a given fleet. However, the key innovation in this new concept is the online adjustable leakage impedance which allows the transformer to change its impedance without interrupting the transmission line operation. The flexible power transformer can be designed with up to three low voltage transmission class ratings and up to 12 impedance values changeable both online and offline. This report provides an overview of the design, manufacturing, testing, and commissioning of the 165kV, 60MVA prototype built including the results of the field performance validation tests. The prototype was specified in collaboration with Cooperative Energy, the utility host. It was designed and tested in the factory according to IEEE standard C57.12.00 and followed all protocols for transportation, installation, and commissioning of a power transformer. In addition to the prototype, a flexible protection system capable of automatically adjusting its settings upon the transformer impedance was also developed and deployed in the for testing and validation. On September 3, 2021 the prototype was energized in Cooperative Energy’s substation in Columbia, Mississippi to become the world’s first flexible power transformer in operation. Its performances and impact on the grid operation were demonstrated through different field tests. Results obtained confirm that the impedance of the flexible transformer can be varied under load through its full range, from 4.3% to 9.3%, without adverse impacts on the line operation, the protection system, the transformer stability and health condition. Results also proved that the flexible transformer is very effective in controlling power transfer through the line or load sharing between units operating in parallel. Indeed, it was proven that higher impedances decrease the thruput power of the transformer while lower impedances increase it. Up to 26MW was controllable on a line loading of 45MVA. It was also possible to demonstrate that the variation of the transformer impedance has no effect on the circulating current between units in parallel, except a minor transient during the impedance change. It was also proven that the flexible protection relay can update its protection settings automatically when the impedance change was detected. The prototype has operated continuously for more than 12 months now with a peak load exceeding 50MVA corresponding to >80% of its ONAN power rating. No alarm, trip or sign of failure has been reported by the utility. In addition to the development and deployment of the flexible transformer prototype, investigations were carried out on new nanodielectric fluids to replace the mineral oil used in power transformers with the goal of reducing their footprint and weight. The key parameters that were targeted for improvement included the breakdown voltage to reduce clearances between windings and tank hence the footprint; viscosity and thermal conductivity to increase the cooling efficiency and therefore to reduce the winding material. Several nanodielectric mixtures with mineral oil including with alumina (Al2O3), titania (TiO2) and Borum Nitrate (BN) with different surfactants have been analyzed and tested. Unfortunately, despite encouraging results no nanofluid candidate has been found viable to replace mineral oil. With the formulations tested, breakdown voltages are generally similar to mineral oil at lower particle contents and worse at higher particle contents. Viscosity appreciably increased at particles concertation over 2 wt% and thermal conductivity increased slightly at 5wt% and appears to be 10-15% higher at 10 wt% particle content. It is recommended to continue investigations to find solutions that can help increase the power density of future flexible power transformers. Flexible power transformers can significantly help the future power grid by providing more flexibility and resiliency. Indeed, by providing voltage and impedance flexibility, flexible power transformers reduce the need for multiple spares, hence inventory costs for utilities. With their online controllable impedance, they can provide support to the grid and help manage short-circuit currents, power flow, line congestion, and grid stability which will become more important with higher penetrations of intermittent renewable resources. During the field validation tests, it was demonstrated that up to 26MW was controllable on a line loading of 45MVA when the transformer impedance was varied from its minimum to its maximum range. Also, with the impedance range, the short-circuit currents could be reduced by up to 38% at the load side of the transformer. With its controllable impedance, flexible transformers can be used in future strategies of grid resilience to help better prepare the grid to face forecasted severe events including storms, heat waves and contingencies. The flexible power transformers can also find role in other applications including high voltage transmission cables such as offshore wind farms where solutions for energizing the cables and managing the reactive power are of critical importance. The designed flexible power transformer is now fully validated and ready for commercialization. Further analysis on the benefits of flexible power transformers for grid stability and short-circuit management including current limiting capability, reclosure and line restoration, control of inrush current, sizing of flexible AC components (FACTS) would help its rapid adoption by the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Accelerated Materials Deployment in Advanced Nuclear Power Plants

The purpose of this report is to begin the development of a maximally efficient process for licensing and deploying new materials in Advanced Non-Light-Water Reactors (ANLWRs). Some new materials that are to be used in some new plants are seen as possibly introducing risks, because our understanding of those new materials’ behavior in the conditions generated by some novel plant designs is less complete than our understanding of the behavior of materials with long use histories in existing designs. In these cases, an approved code/standard or a code case to support the use of these materials in the novel design’s safety case may not exist for the regulator to utilize as part of the licensing determination. This circumstance creates the potential for an extremely long licensing process for new designs using new materials. The present strategy is to show how to manage these risks proactively, in such a way as to permit licensing decisions to be made in a timely manner, based on this risk management process. The present report outlines the gaps in the current codes to support deployment and use of novel materials and begins the development of the necessary risk management framework that is focused on the subject materials issues; it is based on risk-informed in-service surveillance practices, carried out in such a way as to compensate for current limitations in our state of knowledge. This development will enable licensing and deployment of the subject materials, conditional on the proactive surveillance process to be established. While this report is occasioned by limitations in our knowledge of certain materials issues that may arise in advanced designs, in-service surveillance is always done in order to compensate for a lack of knowledge: if we knew that components were not already failed and not trending toward failure, we would not perform surveillance, even in current-generation plants (except that prescriptive requirements would force us to do so). What is different about the surveillance program discussed here is that the issues are newer and the relevant experience base is less complete, so the surveillance presently contemplated may need to measure new things and/or measure them more often than has been traditional for surveillance coupons. The present report is devoted to the risk management framework and applies American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section XI, Division [1] to establish the structure of a protocol for carrying out the necessary surveillance. These documents are generic: they do not tell us how often to surveille, or what to surveille, or what to measure, but rather how to determine those things, given certain technical inputs. The Regulatory Development R&D Program [2] is currently developing the companion supporting technical basis for the materials surveillance technology that, when completed and validated, can be used by owner/operator and NRC to implement a materials degradation management program for ANLWRs. This report also outlines salient points of discussion, positive potential outcomes, and potential concerns from industry and the USNRC. These aspects of the report intend to inform future work to develop a proposed technical process for adoption by the industry and endorsement by the USNRC to allow developers to propose a risk informed and conservative approach for the use of materials where operating experience/data and codes and standards may not exist for use of a novel material in an operating reactor environment. Additionally, such a technology could be leveraged to potentially reduce part of the upfront materials data requirements from ongoing long-term materials testing so that early action on license application could be undertaken by NRC, in parallel with the continuation of long-term data collection. This could accelerate the schedule for a first-of-a-kind ANLWR deployment or a nth-of-a-kind new materials insertion for established ANLWR designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Foundation Heat Exchanger Final Report: Demonstration, Measured Performance, and Validated Model and Design Tool

Geothermal heat pumps, sometimes called ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs), have been proven capable of significantly reducing energy use and peak demand in buildings. Conventional equipment for controlling the temperature and humidity of a building, or supplying hot water and fresh outdoor air, must exchange energy (or heat) with the building's outdoor environment. Equipment using the ground as a heat source and heat sink consumes less non-renewable energy (electricity and fossil fuels) because the earth is cooler than outdoor air in summer and warmer in winter. The most important barrier to rapid growth of the GSHP industry is high first cost of GSHP systems to consumers. The most common GSHP system utilizes a closed-loop ground heat exchanger. This type of GSHP system can be used almost anywhere. There is reason to believe that reducing the cost of closed-loop systems is the strategy that would achieve the greatest energy savings with GSHP technology. The cost premium of closed-loop GSHP systems over conventional space conditioning and water heating systems is primarily associated with drilling boreholes or excavating trenches, installing vertical or horizontal ground heat exchangers, and backfilling the excavations. This project investigates reducing the cost of horizontal closed-loop ground heat exchangers by installing them in the construction excavations, augmented when necessary with additional trenches. This approach applies only to new construction of residential and light commercial buildings or additions to such buildings. In the business-as-usual scenario, construction excavations are not used for the horizontal ground heat exchanger (HGHX); instead the HGHX is installed entirely in trenches dug specifically for that purpose. The potential cost savings comes from using the construction excavations for the installation of ground heat exchangers, thereby minimizing the need and expense of digging additional trenches. The term foundation heat exchanger (FHX) has been coined to refer exclusively to ground heat exchangers installed in the overcut around the basement walls. The primary technical challenge undertaken by this project was the development and validation of energy performance models and design tools for FHX. In terms of performance modeling and design, ground heat exchangers in other construction excavations (e.g., utility trenches) are no different from conventional HGHX, and models and design tools for HGHX already exist. This project successfully developed and validated energy performance models and design tools so that FHX or hybrid FHX/HGHX systems can be engineered with confidence, enabling this technology to be applied in residential and light commercial buildings. The validated energy performance model also addresses and solves another problem, the longstanding inadequacy in the way ground-building thermal interaction is represented in building energy models, whether or not there is a ground heat exchanger nearby. Two side-by-side, three-level, unoccupied research houses with walkout basements, identical 3,700 ft{sup 2} floor plans, and hybrid FHX/HGHX systems were constructed to provide validation data sets for the energy performance model and design tool. The envelopes of both houses are very energy efficient and airtight, and the HERS ratings of the homes are 44 and 45 respectively. Both houses are mechanically ventilated with energy recovery ventilators, with space conditioning provided by water-to-air heat pumps with 2 ton nominal capacities. Separate water-to-water heat pumps with 1.5 ton nominal capacities were used for water heating. In these unoccupied research houses, human impact on energy use (hot water draw, etc.) is simulated to match the national average. At House 1 the hybrid FHX/HGHX system was installed in 300 linear feet of excavation, and 60% of that was construction excavation (needed to construct the home). At House 2 the hybrid FHX/HGHX system was installed in 360 feet of excavation, 50% of which was construction excavation. There are six pipes in all excavations (three parallel circuits - out and back), and the multiple instances of FHX and/or HGHX are all connected in series. The working fluid is 20% by weight propylene glycol in water. Model and design tool development was undertaken in parallel with constructing the houses, installing instrumentation, and monitoring performance for a year. Several detailed numerical models for FHX were developed as part of the project. Essentially the project team was searching for an energy performance model accurate enough to achieve project objectives while also having sufficient computational efficiency for practical use in EnergyPlus. A 3-dimensional, dual-coordinate-system, finite-volume model satisfied these criteria and was included in the October 2011 EnergyPlus Version 7 public release after being validated against measured data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Foundation Heat Exchanger Final Report: Demonstration, Measured Performance, and Validated Model and Design Tool

Geothermal heat pumps, sometimes called ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs), have been proven capable of significantly reducing energy use and peak demand in buildings. Conventional equipment for controlling the temperature and humidity of a building, or supplying hot water and fresh outdoor air, must exchange energy (or heat) with the building's outdoor environment. Equipment using the ground as a heat source and heat sink consumes less non-renewable energy (electricity and fossil fuels) because the earth is cooler than outdoor air in summer and warmer in winter. The most important barrier to rapid growth of the GSHP industry is high first cost of GSHP systems to consumers. The most common GSHP system utilizes a closed-loop ground heat exchanger. This type of GSHP system can be used almost anywhere. There is reason to believe that reducing the cost of closed-loop systems is the strategy that would achieve the greatest energy savings with GSHP technology. The cost premium of closed-loop GSHP systems over conventional space conditioning and water heating systems is primarily associated with drilling boreholes or excavating trenches, installing vertical or horizontal ground heat exchangers, and backfilling the excavations. This project investigates reducing the cost of horizontal closed-loop ground heat exchangers by installing them in the construction excavations, augmented when necessary with additional trenches. This approach applies only to new construction of residential and light commercial buildings or additions to such buildings. In the business-as-usual scenario, construction excavations are not used for the horizontal ground heat exchanger (HGHX); instead the HGHX is installed entirely in trenches dug specifically for that purpose. The potential cost savings comes from using the construction excavations for the installation of ground heat exchangers, thereby minimizing the need and expense of digging additional trenches. The term foundation heat exchanger (FHX) has been coined to refer exclusively to ground heat exchangers installed in the overcut around the basement walls. The primary technical challenge undertaken by this project was the development and validation of energy performance models and design tools for FHX. In terms of performance modeling and design, ground heat exchangers in other construction excavations (e.g., utility trenches) are no different from conventional HGHX, and models and design tools for HGHX already exist. This project successfully developed and validated energy performance models and design tools so that FHX or hybrid FHX/HGHX systems can be engineered with confidence, enabling this technology to be applied in residential and light commercial buildings. The validated energy performance model also addresses and solves another problem, the longstanding inadequacy in the way ground-building thermal interaction is represented in building energy models, whether or not there is a ground heat exchanger nearby. Two side-by-side, three-level, unoccupied research houses with walkout basements, identical 3,700 ft{sup 2} floor plans, and hybrid FHX/HGHX systems were constructed to provide validation data sets for the energy performance model and design tool. The envelopes of both houses are very energy efficient and airtight, and the HERS ratings of the homes are 44 and 45 respectively. Both houses are mechanically ventilated with energy recovery ventilators, with space conditioning provided by water-to-air heat pumps with 2 ton nominal capacities. Separate water-to-water heat pumps with 1.5 ton nominal capacities were used for water heating. In these unoccupied research houses, human impact on energy use (hot water draw, etc.) is simulated to match the national average. At House 1 the hybrid FHX/HGHX system was installed in 300 linear feet of excavation, and 60% of that was construction excavation (needed to construct the home). At House 2 the hybrid FHX/HGHX system was installed in 360 feet of excavation, 50% of which was construction excavation. There are six pipes in all excavations (three parallel circuits - out and back), and the multiple instances of FHX and/or HGHX are all connected in series. The working fluid is 20% by weight propylene glycol in water. Model and design tool development was undertaken in parallel with constructing the houses, installing instrumentation, and monitoring performance for a year. Several detailed numerical models for FHX were developed as part of the project. Essentially the project team was searching for an energy performance model accurate enough to achieve project objectives while also having sufficient computational efficiency for practical use in EnergyPlus. A 3-dimensional, dual-coordinate-system, finite-volume model satisfied these criteria and was included in the October 2011 EnergyPlus Version 7 public release after being validated against measured data.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Roofline Analysis in the Intel® Advisor to Deliver Optimized Performance for applications on Intel® Xeon Phi™ Processor

In this session we show, in two case studies, how the roofline feature of Intel Advisor has been utilized to optimize the performance of kernels of the XGC1 and PICSAR codes in preparation for Intel Knights Landing architecture. The impact of the implemented optimizations and the benefits of using the automatic roofline feature of Intel Advisor to study performance of large applications will be presented. This demonstrates an effective optimization strategy that has enabled these science applications to achieve up to 4.6 times speed-up and prepare for future exascale architectures. # Goal/Relevance of Session The roofline model [1,2] is a powerful tool for analyzing the performance of applications with respect to the theoretical peak achievable on a given computer architecture. It allows one to graphically represent the performance of an application in terms of operational intensity, i.e. the ratio of flops performed and bytes moved from memory in order to guide optimization efforts. Given the scale and complexity of modern science applications, it can often be a tedious task for the user to perform the analysis on the level of functions or loops to identify where performance gains can be made. With new Intel tools, it is now possible to automate this task, as well as base the estimates of peak performance on measurements rather than vendor specifications. The goal of this session is to demonstrate how the roofline feature of Intel Advisor can be used to balance memory vs. computation related optimization efforts and effectively identify performance bottlenecks. A series of typical optimization techniques: cache blocking, structure refactoring, data alignment, and vectorization illustrated by the kernel cases will be addressed. # Description of the codes ## XGC1 The XGC1 code [3] is a magnetic fusion Particle-In-Cell code that uses an unstructured mesh for its Poisson solver that allows it to accurately resolve the edge plasma of a magnetic fusion device. After recent optimizations to its collision kernel [4], most of the computing time is spent in the electron push (pushe) kernel, where these optimization efforts have been focused. The kernel code scaled well with MPI+OpenMP but had almost no automatic compiler vectorization, in part due to indirect memory addresses and in part due to low trip counts of low-level loops that would be candidates for vectorization. Particle blocking and sorting have been implemented to increase trip counts of low-level loops and improve memory locality, and OpenMP directives have been added to vectorize compute-intensive loops that were identified by Advisor. The optimizations have improved the performance of the pushe kernel 2x on Haswell processors and 1.7x on KNL. The KNL node-for-node performance has been brought to within 30% of a NERSC Cori phase I Haswell node and we expect to bridge this gap by reducing the memory footprint of compute intensive routines to improve cache reuse. ## PICSAR is a Fortran/Python high-performance Particle-In-Cell library targeting at MIC architectures first designed to be coupled with the PIC code WARP for the simulation of laser-matter interaction and particle accelerators. PICSAR also contains a FORTRAN stand-alone kernel for performance studies and benchmarks. A MPI domain decomposition is used between NUMA domains and a tile decomposition (cache-blocking) handled by OpenMP has been added for shared-memory parallelism and better cache management. The so-called current deposition and field gathering steps that compose the PIC time loop constitute major hotspots that have been rewritten to enable more efficient vectorization. Particle communications between tiles and MPI domain has been merged and parallelized. All considered, these improvements provide speedups of 3.1 for order 1 and 4.6 for order 3 interpolation shape factors on KNL configured in SNC4 quadrant flat mode. Performance is similar between a node of cori phase 1 and KNL at order 1 and better on KNL by a factor 1.6 at order 3 with the considered test case (homogeneous thermal plasma).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A New Appraisal- Lessons from the History of Efforts to Value Green and High-Performance Home Attributes in the United States

Rigorous consideration of green and high-performance (“green/HP”) features is rarely included in the property valuation process._ To help illuminate why this is the case, this report takes stock of the history of efforts to improve practices, and identifies barriers that have emerged and opportunities for overcoming them. Particular emphasis is placed on what energy and environmental policymakers and other stakeholders outside the appraisal community can contribute to the broader effort to advance professional practices. The history has unfolded in parallel with turbulent periods in the housing market for which appraisers and their customers are deemed to share responsibility, followed by cycles of regulations, siloing of appraisers in the name of professional integrity, and commoditization of the valuation process itself. This pattern has important ramifications for aspirations that appraisers engage more fully in identifying and valuing the green/HP characteristics of homes. On the one hand, it is legally and ethically incumbent on appraisers to do so, yet on the other hand it is perceived as a risky avenue to follow. Risks arise where findings can be challenged as either over- or under-stating value, together with a market environment in which the complexity of their assignments increases despite downward pressure on appraiser fees. While efforts to address green/HP considerations date back to the early 1980s, the vast majority of activity has taken place within the past five years. Many players have engaged in the efforts to promote improved valuation practices. These include the Appraisal Foundation, The Appraisal Institute, Colorado Energy Office, Earth Advantage, EcoBroker, Elevate Energy, Fannie Mae, Federal Housing Administration, Home Innovation Research Labs, The Institute for Market Transformation, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, National Association of Homebuilders, National Association of State Energy Officials, National Association of Appraisers, RESNET, USEPA, USDOE and its National Laboratories, the U.S. Green Buildings Council, and the Vermont Green Homes Alliance. Many activities have resulted, ranging from trainings, to data-gathering instruments, and the emergence of a literature attempting to statistically isolate the effects of green/HP characteristics on home values. In some cases, the results of studies have been overgeneralized and oversold, and embodied flawed methods. Although the green/HP community has encouraged appraisers to focus on exemplary buildings (e.g., LEED or ENERGY STAR Certified), any level of green or energy performance can in fact influence value, including below-average performance (a.k.a. “brown discount”), irrespective of whether or not the building has been formally rated. This overly narrow focus represents a significant missed opportunity. Other surmountable challenges include limitations to non-appraisers’ understanding of the appraisal process (and practical constraints therein). A byproduct of this can be unrealistic expectations of what appraisers can and will do in the marketplace. These challenges notwithstanding, the environment for moving forward has improved. There is better data today (a critical need); expanded efforts to disclose energy use information (characteristics, consumption, bills); improved and more pervasive building energy codes, building rating and labeling initiatives; and a host of federal, state, and local policies that have collectively brought green/HP practices much more into the mainstream. Meanwhile, a renewed focus on professional standards of care and competency for assessing green/HP homes make it increasingly important for appraisers to consider these factors in their assignments. Despite the past four decades of studies, there is little if any discernible uptake of these practices by the appraisal practice at large. It would behoove interested parties to step back and consider what new strategies might be productive. A key element of any new plan should be to reset the nature of interactions with the industry, with the goal a more collaborative, two-way discussion to help improve outsiders’ understanding of the valuation process. It is not only the appraiser that needs to be engaged and could benefit from awareness raising. Homeowners, builders, lenders, utilities, insurance companies should also provide input on how green/HP factors impact property valuations and ways to accurately reflect these considerations in appraisals and real estate transactions more broadly. Given extensive inertia within the appraisal industry and a mixed history of interactions with the non-appraisal stakeholders, it is unlikely that the status quo will achieve much unless followed with more coordinated and persistent efforts. Workshops, studies, and memoranda of understanding will not on their own have much impact, and do not address deeper structural issues. Expectations are often unrealistic and not attentive to real-world constraints faced by appraisers. The report identifies key barriers impeding more thorough consideration of green/HP factors in residential real estate appraisals, and solutions for mitigating them. Barriers • Although industry standards of practice caution against bias of any sort, a skeptical predisposition towards “green” is reinforced by information deficiencies. • Information deficiencies result from the lack or difficulty of obtaining usable data on green/HP features in subject properties as well as valid sales comparisons or cashflow analyses. • Competency deficiencies, such as lack of conversancy in relevant technical topics, leads to oversights, and disjointed treatment of relevant information. • Time/cost pressure and process commoditization (e.g., template-based approaches) result from highly constrained budgets, quick turn-around times expected of appraisers, and standardized practices that were not developed with green/HP considerations in mind. • Professional differences between appraisers and sustainability professionals include divergent objectives, the former being market observers and the latter market influencers. • Risk aversion arises from multiple concerns including veracity, accuracy, and persistence of energy data, impacts of operational choices, new sources of appraiser liability associated with green/HP assessments, industry pressures not to over-value buildings or suggestion of bias, and concern about spending non-billable time on complex assignments. • A public policy vacuum has been created by disjointed and uncoordinated efforts from public-sector stakeholders, insufficient efforts to discuss and understand the appraisal industry and process, and a perception by some valuation professionals that green/HP is oversold. Opportunities • Elevating the competency of appraisers can be achieved through a combination of improved industry standards of care and equal-access training and professional development offerings. • Development of better information resources must focus on building-level information that provides robust documentation as well as aggregate sales-comparison data and other contextual information such as local codes, typical upgrade costs, energy prices, etc. • Improved energy benchmarking and rating tools could provide appraisers with information more well-adapted to their particular needs, which differ from those of typical audiences such as energy managers. • Better characterizing and managing risk will enable appraisers to cope with uncertainties in performance information, and help identify where risks may be introduced or mitigated by green/HP features, including higher costs or obsolescence of poorly-performing buildings. • Integrating disaster resilience and sustainability in appraisals would recognize important synergisms among these features, including durability and ability of green/HP buildings to better withstand external hazards. • Mitigating the problem of additional time/cost for performing assignments is an essential need that can be addressed by providing easier access to information and analytic procedures, perhaps coupled with new resources to defray the associated costs. • Enhancing demand for improved appraisals is a fundamental need, and depends on owners, developers, lenders, and others soliciting competent appraisers to perform scopes that expressly call out green/HP considerations, and to critically review the work product for compliance before acceptance. • Engaging new market participants, such as energy utilities and insurance companies can ensure fuller representation and participation of market stakeholders already engaged in green/HP activities and capable of furnishing valuable data and managing associated risks. Cutting across these individual activities, there is a need for outside stakeholders to formulate and follow a roadmap instead of piecemeal initiatives, bridging the professional/cultural divide between appraisers and green/HP communities, and tracking progress in order to know what is working. A more coherent communication and training strategy is needed, as the appraisal industry is highly fragmented, with two-thirds of appraisers opting out of membership in trade associations. In sum, while there is no silver bullet for advancing the practice of valuing green/HP features, there are concrete opportunities. Parties seeking solutions must identify barriers they wish to address and select from among potential initiatives that map to those barriers. Close collaboration with the appraisal community is critical, as non-appraisers have historically obtained limited traction with this industry due to lack of understanding of the nuances involved in the valuation profession. Large organizations and agencies should have a united approach; the perception or reality of a fragmented and uncoordinated strategy is unsettling for prospective partners in the appraisal industry. This requires improved communication and education within and among these communities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗