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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Two-DoF Model-Informed Controller Gain Tuning for Several Floating Wind Platforms

Much effort has recently been put into the development of collective blade pitch controllers for floating offshore wind turbines, with the aim of overcoming negative damping issues that arise with traditional control methods. One proposed approach to this challenge involves using a two-degree-of-freedom model to inform the gain schedule of a nacelle velocity feedback term in an otherwise conventional proportional-integral controller. The model uses tower-top fore-aft and rotor angular displacements, and is used to calculate a nacelle velocity feedback gain that results in a specified increase in platform pitch damping. Earlier performance evaluations of this tuning method were favorable, suggesting its potential as an easy way for researchers to obtain an adequate controller. This paper expands on those previous results by examining the performance of the tuning method relative to baseline controllers for several hull configurations, and for several prescribed increases in platform pitch damping. Simulations were run in OpenFAST for several load cases above rated wind speed and show results consistent with trends in the earlier study. The tuning method is thus shown to be adaptable to many different types of hulls, making it useful for the evaluation of prototype designs.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2022

The HUNTER Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Tool: Development of a Module for Performance Shaping Factors

Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) is a framework to support dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA) in communication with a variety of methods and tools. In this paper, how we have developed one of the HUNTER modules, the individual module for evaluating performance shaping factors (PSFs), is introduced. The PSF refers to any factor that influences human performance such as workload or complexity. It has been used for highlighting human errors and adjusting the error probabilities in the existing HRA. We consider the eight PSFs suggested in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-HRA (SPAR-H) method, which is the representative HRA method widely used in the nuclear field. To support our dynamic modeling using the eight SPAR-H PSFs, we reviewed human performance literature and developed data-based mathematical models to rate and quantify PSFs in the context of dynamic HRA. We also design the individual module composed of the two functions: 1) the PSF qualification function that automatically or manually evaluates a PSF level, and 2) the PSF quantification function that dynamically or statically determines the PSF multiplier values and integrate them to adjust human error probabilities (HEPs). How each function works with the SPAR-H PSFs and how the PSFs adjust the HEPs are investigated through literature and discussed in this paper.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Response of NiMH Cells to Burp Charging

Performance cycling and calorimetric analysis of nickel metal hydride (NNH) calls have revealed that reverse pulse ("burp") charging improves performance over other charging techniques. Burp charging periodically applies a short-duration, high-rate discharge pulse followed by short rest during an otherwise galvanostatic charge as shown in Fig. 1. Results show improved charge input and output, lower heat generation during charge, lower charge overvoltage, and no loss of cycle life [I]. The burp charge method has been improved over the years purely by trial and error. Several hypotheses have been put forward (see articles cited in (1) to explain why burp charging improves performance For example, it has been suggested that the discharge pulses dislodge gas bubbles that would otherwise mask the active elect-ode surfaces. However, no evidence was found in the literature to support this or other hypotheses. Overall, a better understanding of the phenomenon is needed to help guide further improvements in the burp-charging method, and this is the objective of our investigation.

Darcy, Eric C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Kinetic parameters from thermogravimetric analysis

High performance polymeric materials are finding increased use in aerospace applications. Proposed high speed aircraft will require materials to withstand high temperatures in an oxidative atmosphere for long periods of time. It is essential that accurate estimates be made of the performance of these materials at the given conditions of temperature and time. Temperatures of 350 F (177 C) and times of 60,000 to 100,000 hours are anticipated. In order to survey a large number of high performance polymeric materials on a reasonable time scale, some form of accelerated testing must be performed. A knowledge of the rate of a process can be used to predict the lifetime of that process. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) has frequently been used to determine kinetic information for degradation reactions in polymeric materials. Flynn and Wall studied a number of methods for using TGA experiments to determine kinetic information in polymer reactions. Kinetic parameters, such as the apparent activation energy and the frequency factor, can be determined in such experiments. Recently, researchers at the McDonnell Douglas Research Laboratory suggested that a graph of the logarithm of the frequency factor against the apparent activation energy can be used to predict long-term thermo-oxidative stability for polymeric materials. Such a graph has been called a kinetic map. In this study, thermogravimetric analyses were performed in air to study the thermo-oxidative degradation of several high performance polymers and to plot their kinetic parameters on a kinetic map.

Kiefer, Richard L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Measurement of Microscopic Growth Rates in Float-Zone Silicon Crystals

Time dependent convective flows during crystal growth of doped semiconductors lead to fluctuations of the composition, so called dopant striations. In general, it is difficult to decide which is the main mechanism for the generation of these striations, it might be either the fluctuation of the concentration field in the melt and the extent of the solute boundary layer ahead of the solid-liquid interface or a variation of the growth velocity. Direct access to the concentration field is rather complicated to achieve, especially considering the high process temperature and the chemical activity of liquid silicon. The contribution of growth rate fluctuations to the formation of compositional fluctuations can be determined by measuring microscopic growth rates. The classical method of current pulses requires electrical feed-throughs and good electrical contacts, both are critical issues for the growth of high purity silicon crystals. Using a radiation based heating system, the heating power can be modulated very fast and effectively. We added to the normal heater power a sinusoidal off-set in the frequency range of 1 to 10 Hz, generating a narrow spaced weak rippling in the grown crystals which are superposed to the dopant striations caused by natural and by thermocapillary convection. The pulling speed was varied between 1 and 4mm/min. The microscope images of etched crystals slices have been analyzed by peak-search algorithms (measuring the spacing between each artificially induced marker) and by FFT. Performing growth experiments under a time-dependent flow regime, fluctuations of the microscopic growth velocity of Delta(v)/v(sub average) up to 50% have been measured. Damping the time-dependent convection by the use of an axial, static magnetic field of 500mT, the microscopic growth rate became constant within the resolution limit of this method. The results will be discussed using analytical methods for the calculation of microscopic growth velocity and by comparing them with measurements of temperature fluctuations in the melt during growth experiments itself.

Dold, P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of electrode porosity architecture on electrochemical performances of 1 mm-thick LiFePO4 binder-free Li-ion electrodes fabricated by Spark Plasma Sintering

Thick electrodes with high active material loadings have been intensively studied over the last couple of decades in pursuit of achieving high energy density systems. To optimize and enhance the electrochemical performance of such electrodes, one has to control the pore morphology by, for example, varying the pore size and shape, and the level of porosity. In the present work, the fabrication of thick binder-free LiFePO4 (LFP) electrodes with two different pore sizes (12 and 20 mu m) and porosities (21 vol% and 44 vol%) using Spark Plasma Sintering (SPS) and templating approach is reported. The well-controlled porous architecture inside the thick electrodes is realized by fine-tuning experimental parameters. The impact of porosity architecture on electrochemical performance is quantified and correlated with the 3D tortuosity values determined from both micro-computed tomography and electrochemical impedance-based experimental methods. Based on the micro-computed tomography data analysis, estimated tortuosity values along X, Y, and Z axes reveal an anisotropic effect perpendicularly to the SPS compression axis (Z-direction). This is particularly profoundly observed in the samples with larger pores (20 mu m). The correlation between morphological properties and the rate capability performance is established indicating that the capacity loss happens mainly due to the Li-ion diffusion limitations.

Cathode material↗
DOE OSTI2019

High water recovery and improved thermodynamic efficiency for capacitive deionization using variable flowrate operation

Water recovery is a measure of the amount of treated water produced relative to the total amount of water processed through the system, and is an important performance metric for any desalination method. Conventional operating methods for desalination using capacitive deionization (CDI) have so far limited water recovery to be about 50%. To improve water recovery for CDI, we introduce a new operating scheme based on a variable (in time) flow rate wherein a low flow rate during discharge is used to produce a brine volume which is significantly less than the volume of diluent produced. We demonstrate experimentally and study systematically this novel variable flowrate operating scheme in the framework of both constant current and constant voltage charge-discharge modes. We show that the variable flowrate operation can increase water recovery for CDI to very high values of ~90% and can improve thermodynamic efficiency by about 2- to 3-fold compared to conventional constant flowrate operation. Importantly, this is achieved with minimal performance reductions in salt removal, energy consumption, and volume throughput. Our work highlights that water recovery can be readily improved for CDI at very minimal additional cost using simple flow control schemes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1973

Low-thrust mission risk analysis, with application to a 1980 rendezvous with the comet Encke

A computerized failure process simulation procedure is used to evaluate the risk in a solar electric space mission. The procedure uses currently available thrust-subsystem reliability data and performs approximate simulations of the thrust sybsystem burn operation, the system failure processes, and the retargeting operations. The method is applied to assess the risks in carrying out a 1980 rendezvous mission to the comet Encke. Analysis of the results and evaluation of the effects of various risk factors on the mission show that system component failure rates are the limiting factors in attaining a high mission relability. It is also shown that a well-designed trajectory and system operation mode can be used effectively to partially compensate for unreliable thruster performance.

Yen, C. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anderson acceleration stability in NDA-accelerated k-eigenvalue problems

Anderson acceleration (AA) has been used to improve the stability and convergence rate of multiphysics iterative methods for reactor analysis. Most applications studied assume a tightly converged solution for the different physics problems, and AA is usually applied to state variables like temperature, density, and heat generation rate. In this paper, we study the theoretical performance of AA in NDA-accelerated k-eigenvalue problems. The problems and algorithms studied are simplified from the coupled iteration scheme adopted by MPACT and many other high-fidelity whole-core reactor codes. Compared to previous analyses of AA for these iteration schemes, we study the case with a partially converged neutronics solution and possibly partially converged nonlinear diffusion acceleration (NDA)/coarse mesh finite difference (CMFD) solutions. We observe that the performance of the iteration scheme with AA is very sensitive to the initial guess and is affected by the partially converged CMFD solutions. When the NDA solution is fully converged, using AA cannot achieve the optimal convergence rate in large-sized problems. Conversely, if the NDA solution is partially converged, the iteration scheme with AA can diverge or converge extremely slowly. It is found that the loss of robustness for AA is due to the fact that it is applied to the iterative subspace of state variables rather than the fundamental unknowns of the governing equations. To improve the robustness, the scalar flux should also be considered in the implementation of AA. After considering the residuals of flux, we observe that the stability is regardless of the partial convergence of NDA solutions. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesizing Highly Crystalline Graphite Powder from Bulk Polyethylene Waste for Lithium-Ion Battery Anodes

Upcycling plastic waste into graphite can potentially be used, in conjunction with other methods, to manage existing waste materials and diversify graphite supply chains. However, synthesizing large quantities of crystalline graphite powder from plastic waste, particularly polyethylene (PE), remains a challenge because PE decomposes into light gases during thermal processing and simple methods do not exist at any appreciable size scale to address this challenge. In this work, a method is developed for air processing bulk forms of PE waste to create stable carbon char that does not readily decompose during high-temperature processing. This method employs solid additives in the form of salts, which are combined with the PE melt during air processing to increase the effective surface area of the melt and improve the oxygen-driven chemistry that stabilizes PE for high-temperature processing. After removal of the solid salt additives from the PE-derived char, it is converted into a highly crystalline bulk graphite powder using an Fe-based catalytic process. The PE-derived graphite anode in a lithium-ion coin cell showed a specific capacity of 345 mAh/g at 0.05C with an initial Coulombic efficiency of 87% and reversible capacity retention of ~100% at different current rates. It also showed a specific capacity of up to 313 mAh/g at 0.5 discharge/charge cycles per hour (0.5C) and Coulombic efficiency of 99.9% after 250 cycles, indicating excellent electrochemical performance as an anode material for lithium-ion batteries. This method illustrates that there are opportunities for upcycling large quantities of PE waste to produce graphite powders suitable for use in LIBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2013

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Creep rupture of polymer-matrix composites

The time-dependent creep-rupture process in graphite-epoxy laminates is examined as a function of temperature and stress level. Moisture effects are not considered. An accelerated characterization method of composite-laminate viscoelastic modulus and strength properties is reviewed. It is shown that lamina-modulus master curves can be obtained using a minimum of normally performed quality-control-type testing. Lamina-strength master curves, obtained by assuming a constant-strain-failure criterion, are presented along with experimental data, and reasonably good agreement is shown to exist between the two. Various phenomenological delayed failure models are reviewed and two (the modified rate equation and the Larson-Miller parameter method) are compared to creep-rupture data with poor results.

Brinson, H. F.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon nanofibers (CNFs) dispersed in ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC): Mechanical property, workability and permeability investigation

This paper presents experimental data on the effect of carbon nano-fiber (CNF) dispersion on mechanical behavior, workability, and permeability of ultra-high-performance concrete containing CNF (UHPC-CNF). The addition of CNFs in concrete has been shown to provide improved performance. However, an inhomogeneous distribution of CNFs in the cement matrix can result in no impact or decreased mechanical performance. Due to the van der Waal's forces and hydrophobic surface properties of the CNFs, good dispersion in mix fluids and cement paste is challenging. Experimental studies of UHPC-CNF with different dispersion methods are provided. Further mixing with optimized UHPC paste allowed for the investigation of the optimal dosage of CNFs, impact on porosity, compressive strength, flexural strength, hydration rate, and slump. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis visually revealed the effect of dispersion. Our results indicate that shear mixing and subsequent ultrasonic dispersion with chemical surfactants can provide a well-dispersion liquid admixture of CNFs resulting in high mechanical performance of UHPC-CNFs composites. The water permeability and chloride resistance of optimized UHPC-CNFs composites were further evaluated with the wicking test and ponding test to reveal improved performance for these properties as well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Effect of Noninvasive Follicular Thyroid Neoplasm with Papillary-Like Nuclear Features (NIFTP) on Malignancy Rates in Thyroid Nodules: How to Counsel Patients on Extent of Surgery

Purpose: To investigate the impact of the nomenclature change to “noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features” (NIFTP) on reported malignancy rates following thyroidectomy. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of patients with thyroid nodules sampled preoperatively with fine-needle aspiration (FNA) and subsequently removed at one tertiary-care hospital from 4/2016 to 2/2017. Surgical procedure, anatomic pathology, thyroid cytopathology classification, and demographic characteristics were recorded. Results: Thyroidectomy was performed in 353 patients. Twenty-six patients (7.3%) had NIFTP on anatomic pathology. Preoperative FNA demonstrated atypia of undetermined significance (AUS/Bethesda III) in 13 (50%), suspicious for malignancy (SUS/Bethesda V) in 6 (23%), suspicious for follicular neoplasm (SFN/Bethesda IV) in 4 (15%), benign/Bethesda I in 2 (8%), and malignant/Bethesda VI in 1 (4%). Invasive malignancy rates across cytologic categories changed as follows: benign (n = 74) from 4 to 1%, AUS (n = 85) from 33 to 18% (p < 0.05), SFN (n = 58) from 29 to 22%, SUS (n = 33) from 91 to 73% (p < 0.05), and malignant (n = 99) from 99 to 98%. Overall decrease in invasive malignancy was 7.3% for the entire population and 13.1% for indeterminate preoperative FNA cytology (Bethesda III–V). Among 26 NIFTP patients, 17 had thyroid lobectomy (TL) and 9 underwent total thyroidectomy (TT). Eight of the nine patients with TT could have been definitively treated with TL, an 89% decrease. Conclusions: The NIFTP nomenclature change led to an overall decrease in the malignancy rate at our institution, especially for Bethesda III–V categories. Patients may be counseled toward more conservative surgical options if NIFTP is in the differential.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS1991

Development of a pressure based multigrid solution method for complex fluid flows

In order to reduce the computational difficulty associated with a single grid (SG) solution procedure, the multigrid (MG) technique was identified as a useful means for improving the convergence rate of iterative methods. A full MG full approximation storage (FMG/FAS) algorithm is used to solve the incompressible recirculating flow problems in complex geometries. The algorithm is implemented in conjunction with a pressure correction staggered grid type of technique using the curvilinear coordinates. In order to show the performance of the method, two flow configurations, one a square cavity and the other a channel, are used as test problems. Comparisons are made between the iterations, equivalent work units, and CPU time. Besides showing that the MG method can yield substantial speed-up with wide variations in Reynolds number, grid distributions, and geometry, issues such as the convergence characteristics of different grid levels, the choice of convection schemes, and the effectiveness of the basic iteration smoothers are studied. An adaptive grid scheme is also combined with the MG procedure to explore the effects of grid resolution on the MG convergence rate as well as the numerical accuracy.

Shyy, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Ink Formulation and Drying Conditions on Ionomer Distribution in High-Performance Roll-to-Roll-Coated Gas-Diffusion Electrodes

To enable mass production of fuel cell membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) catalyst layers production will require continuous roll-to-roll (R2R) coating processes. Gas diffusion electrodes (GDEs) are advantageous for mass production because the catalyst layer can be directely coated on the microporous layer of the gas diffusion media without the need for a decal-transfer process. It is known that the water-to-alcohol ratio in the catalyst ink influences the interactions of the ionomer with the catalyst leading to different distributions of ionomer in spray-coated catalyst layers. It is also known that during drying of colloidal mixtures, like fuel cell inks, factors such as drying rate, particle size, and agglomeration influence how the materials distribute themselves throughout the thickness of the dired film. Thus far there have only been limited studies to understand how process conditions such as ink formulation and drying temperature influence the distribution of ionomer and catalyst coated using scalable methods. This understanding is especially important for GDEs since it is known that having a sufficient amount of ionomer at the catalyst layer-membrane interface is critical for high performance. In this study we have focused on determining how the ratio of water to 1-propanol in the catalyst ink ink and drying temperature influence the distribution of ionomer throughout the thickness of the catalyst layer. Using a combination of Kelvin probe and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy we show that an ionomer-rich surface is promoted by a higher drying rate and a water-rich catalyst ink. In contrast, a 1-propanol catalyst ink leads to a lower concentration of ionomer on the top surface. Using x-ray computed tomography, we are able to characterize the ionomer distribution throughout the thickness of the layer. We find that, in addition to promoting an ionomer-rich top surface, water-rich inks lead to a more homogenous distribution of ionomer, whereas a 1-propanol-rich ink leads to a more irregular distribution. It is found that MEA performance is improved by selecting conditions and ink formulations that promote ionomer enrichment at the top surface to facilitate a good interface with the membrane. MEAs prepared with a 75 wt% water catalyst ink with a 0.9 I/C have equivalent performance to spray-coated GDEs. Critically, these R2R-coated GDEs do not need an additional ionomer overlayer like the spray-coated GDEs do, reducing the number of processing steps in a manufacturing setting. This work shows that with the appropriate selection of materials, ink formulation, and processing conditions gas-diffusion electrodes are a viable pathway for fuel cell manufacturing.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Preparation and Photocatalytic Hydrogen Production of TiO 2 /(AlMnCoNiZn) 3 O 4 Nanocomposites

Photocatalytic water splitting is a promising strategy for addressing the global energy crisis and environmental pollution. In this study, spinel-type high-entropy oxide (HEO) nanoparticles, (AlMnCoNiZn) 3 O 4 , were successfully synthesized via a solution combustion method. TiO 2 /(AlMnCoNiZn) 3 O 4 nanocomposites with varying molar ratios were subsequently fabricated through solid-state sintering, and their photocatalytic water-splitting performance was systematically investigated. The hydrogen production rate initially increased and then decreased with increasing TiO 2 content. The optimal nanocomposite achieved a hydrogen evolution rate of 1450 μmol·h −1 ·g −1 under simulated sunlight irradiation, which is 2.2 times higher than that of pure TiO 2 nanoparticles. In addition, the TiO 2 /(AlMnCoNiZn) 3 O 4 nanocomposites exhibited significantly improved photocorrosion resistance compared with TiO 2 nanoparticles. After 12 h irradiation under a 500-W high-pressure mercury lamp, the hydrogen production rates of the nanocomposites and pure TiO 2 retained 79.3% and 5.47% of their initial values, respectively. These results demonstrate the important role of (AlMnCoNiZn) 3 O 4 and other HEOs in enhancing the photocatalytic performance of nanoheterojunction catalysts. Lastly, this work broadens the potential applications of (AlMnCoNiZn) 3 O 4 and related HEO materials in the field of photocatalysis.

Heterojunction↗
DOE OSTI2017

Detecting population-environmental interactions with mismatched time series data

Time series analysis is an essential method for decomposing the influences of density and exogenous factors such as weather and climate on population regulation. However, there has not been much work focused on understanding how well commonly collected data can reconstruct the effects of environmental factors on population dynamics. We show that, analogous to similar scale issues in spatial data analysis, coarsely sampled temporal data can fail to detect covariate effects when interactions occur on timescales that are fast relative to the survey period. We propose a method for modeling mismatched time series data that couples high-resolution environmental data to low-resolution abundance data. We illustrate our approach with simulations and by applying it to Florida's southern Snail kite population. Our simulation results show that our method can reliably detect linear environmental effects and that detecting nonlinear effects requires high-resolution covariate data even when the population turnover rate is slow. In the Snail kite analysis, our approach performed among the best in a suite of previously used environmental covariates explaining Snail kite dynamics and was able to detect a potential phenological shift in the environmental dependence of Snail kites. Our work provides a statistical framework for reliably detecting population–environment interactions from coarsely surveyed time series. An important implication of this work is that the low predictability of animal population growth by weather variables found in previous studies may be due, in part, to how these data are utilized as covariates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗